The Obama Presidency - 2008 & 2012

[panerd]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

You left out raising revenues. Until you accept that that will need to be done too you're not a part of the serious, adult conversation.

I don't mind raising taxes along with serious cuts to the military, corporate welfare state, and handout welfare state. My family has to live within a budget, my city does, most businesses (outside of Washington DC most favored status) do, and most (I think all?) states do. Tired of giving them "just one more chance". It really is symbolic of an abusive relationship. Maybe if we raise the debt ceiling without taxes or spending cuts they will change? Because we know neither side is capable of doing it on their own. What a load of horse shit! Why are any of these guys on either side of the aisle going to get reelected if they end up doing nothing?

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We all get the vote in 2006. Can you please stop posting it with every reply?

Apperently you don't. Obama is selling you the same load of shit that Bush sold in 2006 and he and Biden and Clinton all stood against. But somehow you think its different. Or I assume you do when you post the same articles with some variation of why we just need DC to continue business as usual. They will find religion after this debt ceiling vote.

[JPhillips]

No, I get that posturing on the debt limit is political. There is a difference, though, between posturing and actually refusing to raise the debt limit. I don't give a shit about the posturing, but I'm terrified when so many in the GOP say they're willing to force a default.

Hopefully it's all just politics, but if it isn't we're screwed.

@5 weeks now and less than that if you believe the ratings agencies that say they'll start downgrading U.S. treasuries in mid to late uly if no deal is reached.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

but I'm terrified that someone might actually be serious when they say it's time to cut spending & that tax increases are not an acceptable part of the bargain

Fixed that for you.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

No, I get that posturing on the debt limit is political. There is a difference, though, between posturing and actually refusing to raise the debt limit. I don't give a shit about the posturing, but I'm terrified when so many in the GOP say they're willing to force a default.

Hopefully it's all just politics, but if it isn't we're screwed.

@5 weeks now and less than that if you believe the ratings agencies that say they'll start downgrading U.S. treasuries in mid to late uly if no deal is reached.

Listen I think I have established plenty of times that I hate them both so don't look at this is taking sides. With that said the Republicans are much better at playing the game than the Democrats. They will go right up until 11:59 and then a couple will come out of nowhere and vote the other way. (Probably solid ones that have no fear of not being reelcted) The Democrats in my 2006 example could have stood their ground longer and maybe forced the hand on some of these wars. It doesn't make the Republicans better, it fact it definitely makes them worse people IMO. However seeing this as anything but a political game is getting worked up over nothing.

I would love it if they actually did something about the out of control spending and out of control military but unfortunatly people will still keep voting for both parties as long as facebook and the mass media says thats how you perform your civic duty. And I also don't think the world would spin out of control if we actually showed some signs of caring about fiscal responsability and actually did more than just talk. But outside of a few guys (on both sides) out of 535 I don't think I have to worry much about that.

[larrymcg421]

But in that case, the Democrats weren't holding the debt ceiling hostage. If they wanted to do that, then they would have filibustered. They clearly had the votes to do so. But this was before the "use the filibuster on every single vote that won't go your way" tactic.

But I know in your world that anyone who doesn't attack Democrats and Republicans equally is obviously a partisan hack.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

But in that case, the Democrats weren't holding the debt ceiling hostage. If they wanted to do that, then they would have filibustered. They clearly had the votes to do so. But this was before the "use the filibuster on every single vote that won't go your way" tactic.

But I know in your world that anyone who doesn't attack Democrats and Republicans equally is obviously a partisan hack.

Yes the 2006 vote (That JPhillips is tired of me posting) and the current debate are the epitome of partisan hackery. Both political parties have completely flip-flopped their stance on a single issue due to who is the president. The quotes from '06 are exactly the same substance as the quotes from '11. I don't single out FOFC members as partisan hacks but the entire process as nothing but political theatre at its finest. The debt ceiling debate is a good one to have and there are interesting arguments on both sides but ultimately the debt ceiling will pass. Why? Because it is a game, they have been playing it for years. Sorry if you haven't figured that out yet. (I think you probably have but if not I think you are subject to ridicule for falling for the same bullshit over and over and over. Jphillips and DT are pretty big dems but they realize the game. I hope you do as well)

[panerd]

Not to pull a MBBF here but I would be willing to setup a paypal bet with anyone on whether this passes or not. (Me being on the side of it passing) I don't agree with it but I also wasn't born yesterday.

[JPhillips]

But this time 11:59 will be too late. We don't have to stop paying the bills to reach a point where the markets get jittery and ratings on treasuries start falling. Nobody knows when, exactly, that will happen. We're already a month and a half past the date when the Fed had to start taking extraordinary actions to keep us from default.

[BillJasper]

If the Democrats had any balls they would demand a one-for-one deal. A dollar in spending cuts for every dollar of new revenue. With both dollars going towards deficit reduction.

[gstelmack]

Well, CNN is already floating the "maybe the President can tell Treasury to pay bills because the debt ceiling is unconstitutional" trial balloon, which is going to give the Repubs an out on this ("if it was really that catastrophic, he could have done it himself!").

[larrymcg421]

I realize the game. I'm way to the left of any elected official. I attack Republicans way more than Democrats because I think they're worse, not because I'm caught up in some partisan game. The Democrats roll over like cowards all the time (aside from a few that I truly admire like Howard Dean and Russ Feingold).

Anyways, I've explained before why I think the 2006 vote is different than the current situation (and so has JPhillips). You're free to disagree with us, but posting that vote over and over again is a pointless exercise. We know that vote exists. We don't care.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Well, CNN is already floating the "maybe the President can tell Treasury to pay bills because the debt ceiling is unconstitutional" trial balloon, which is going to give the Repubs an out on this ("if it was really that catastrophic, he could have done it himself!").

I actually saw something on this yesterday I think it was - referencing the cluase in the 14th Amendment that says "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned" and trying to use that to say that the "debt ceiling" in and of itself was unconstitutional, because there's therefore no way for the government to default under the constitution.

Would be interesting from a constitutional law standpoint, and is an interesting hypothetical discussion, but honestly I'd rather it didn't get to that point.

JPhillips is right again - the problem with this is that the ratings agencies can downgrade whenever they want...there's nothing stopping them practically-speaking from doing it right now. Playing chicken and waiting till 11:59 could very well be too late...the damage could have already started by then if people (even aside from the ratings agencies) start getting jittery, or they start thinking this sets a precedent and flee from the dollar as the reserve currency of choice.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

JPhillips is right again - the problem with this is that the ratings agencies can downgrade whenever they want...there's nothing stopping them practically-speaking from doing it right now. Playing chicken and waiting till 11:59 could very well be too late...the damage could have already started by then if people (even aside from the ratings agencies) start getting jittery, or they start thinking this sets a precedent and flee from the dollar as the reserve currency of choice.

But the President could decide tomorrow to ignore the debt ceiling if that was that big a deal.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

But the President could decide tomorrow to ignore the debt ceiling if that was that big a deal.

He may have already decided that's the avenue he wants to pursue...but frankly I doubt it. Because if he were to do so you'd likely have immediate legal challenges from the Republicans and then all sorts of injunctions and legal wrangling and the end result would probably be a ratings downgrade anyways.

Personally I think if that's the way they were going to go they would have started to move on it months ago. It's almost too late for that now IMO...but it's an interesting idea.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by panerd

I don't agree with it

I don't understand that mentality. There is really no way around adding to the national debt over the next year. Even if you cut whatever the projected deficit is it would almost certainly lower tax receipts in the short term. And even if you found a way to be balanced by the end of the year the budget wouldn't be balanced on a day to day basis. The national debt will go up even with a default.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

There is really no way around adding to the national debt over the next year.

Sure there is. Heck, you could disband the government tomorrow and they'd stop spending a dime right now. That's obviously extreme, but you could make drastic cuts that would balance the budget.

However, the Repubs aren't asking for a balanced budget right now, they are willing to raise the debt ceiling. They just want promises of drastic cuts with no increase in taxes to agree to it.

[JPhillips]

But I believe panerd was saying he doesn't agree with raising the limit at all.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

But I believe panerd was saying he doesn't agree with raising the limit at all.

Well, the point still stands: yes they could in fact cut the budget enough to not have to raise the debt limit. It's probably more than the politicians could stomach, but then if they had fixed this a decade or two ago we wouldn't be staring down the barrel of this right now.

14 TRILLION dollars. 6+ years of revenue (current revenue) in money we owe. Spending has to be cut bigtime. B I G T I M E.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Well, the point still stands: yes they could in fact cut the budget enough to not have to raise the debt limit. It's probably more than the politicians could stomach, but then if they had fixed this a decade or two ago we wouldn't be staring down the barrel of this right now.

14 TRILLION dollars. 6+ years of revenue (current revenue) in money we owe. Spending has to be cut bigtime. B I G T I M E.

Not in any politically viable way. The deficit has to be cut with public buy-in or it won't last past the next Congress.

[SteveMax58]

Yeah, the debt ceiling will be raised, but Repubs will (halfheartedly) show their "base" that they are serious about not raising taxes.

But the real problem as I see it is still a deeper problem of having wasted too much political capital & too much public willingness to implement a massive government-mandated initiative.

I know I am a broken record on energy independence, but it really is the only thing that can probably bail us out. Its a bit like deciding to mow your own lawn instead of continuing to use a credit card to pay the lawn guy. You may have to buy a lawn mower & gas in the short term...but you will reduce your outgoing funds over time.

But what's better is...energy independence not only reduces our debt and allows us to cut military costs of occupying half the Middle East...but the multiplicative effect of using US-created energy sources would strengthen the dollar and allow us to more easily fund social programs in the future. Instead...we went straight for the social programs without figuring out how "best" to secure the country's economic engines.

Sigh...I'll shut up now.

[Edward64]

Game of chicken is coming to an end one way or another. I'm surprised at how well the stock market is doing right now, I'm nervous.

Common consensus is that even if a deal was struck now, the official verbiage etc. won't be done by early Aug which is when we technically default. Hope we have plan B to address this.

Obama: Working through weekend on 'painful' deal - politics - White House - msnbc.com

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama described a debt-crisis session Thursday with congressional leaders as "very constructive" but said the parties were still far apart on deficit reduction proposals. He said he would reconvene the negotiators on Sunday.

Thursday's meeting came amid signals that the White House was willing to reduce costs for major benefit programs including Social Security and Medicare, while Republicans indicated they might consider new steps to raise government revenue.

"People were frank," Obama said, just moments after adjourning the one-and-a-half hour meeting with the eight lawmakers who make up the bipartisan leadership of Congress.

Obama acknowledged that the ultimate agreement will not satisfy partisans on both sides, but he said the deal would require both Republican and Democratic votes to pass Congress.

"Everyone acknowledged that pain will be involved politically on all sides," he said.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by panerd

Yes the 2006 vote (That JPhillips is tired of me posting) and the current debate are the epitome of partisan hackery. Both political parties have completely flip-flopped their stance on a single issue due to who is the president.

This happens on so many issues that it's just sad. I used to follow and get into politics much more but realized it's just a game. No one cares about the issues, what's best for people, just trying to get their team to win. This isn't about the issues anymore, it's just choosing the opposite of the other side and arguing. High school debate team running our country.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This happens on so many issues that it's just sad. I used to follow and get into politics much more but realized it's just a game. No one cares about the issues, what's best for people, just trying to get their team to win. This isn't about the issues anymore, it's just choosing the opposite of the other side and arguing. High school debate team running our country.

Yeah. People like Harry Reid (D-MGM & Harrahs) goes on a rant about people who make way too much money. (actually had the gull to specifically target people who make over one million dollars) This guy is worth millions of dollars even though his whole life has been spent in public service making around $100,000-$150,000. I know plenty of people who make that who aren't worth millions of dollars.

Then you have Jim DeMint actually writing a book about how he has re-found himself. This guy is one of my bolds in the 2006 roll call vote that JPhillips is getting tired of. He is so against this debt ceiling because of out of control spending (I think he is sometimes called the "most conservative" Republican.) But somehow this "fiscal conservative" guy didn't understand any of this 5 years ago when he greenlighted Bush's out of control military mess? OK...

There are stories like this about every one of them. Some are better than others. Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich being two that come to mind. I think Ron Paul is better than most of what we have but he continually votes for his district to get federal money to guarentee re-election. He aint really representing Libertarian values either.

But in the end somehow people from both sides think these guys really care about their parties "values" and aren't just playing a big reelection game. I don't understand this game, probably never will, but don't see why this debt limit issue has become such a big deal. It is obviously going to pass. Just rewind to 2006. (Obama/Biden/Clinton and McCain/Demint/Santorum are on the EXACT opposite sides. How is this not just a political game?)

[DaddyTorgo]

Hasn't Harry Reid gone on record basically saying that he's fine with paying more in taxes if tax rates get raised though? Or am I confusing him with someone else on that?

Thought I kinda recalled that...I dunno.

[Buccaneer]

I agree with you, RainMaker. I have seen this since Carter's Administration. One of the greatest needs in fueling this game is not only partisan politics but the innate desire to get re-elected (thus, needing the muscle of the party in order to do so). Except for a few cushy CEOs, there is not a job that has greater perks than being a congressperson. That's the motivation to play the game.

[panerd]

The funniest part of all? There is actually someone on trial for lying to them. Forget what you feel about Roger Clemens. They decided to grandstand on steriods to please the voters and then when someone lies (like both sides of Congress do every fucking day) he gets put on trial? Sure about our system being one of the best? It may quite simply (outside of third world countries) be the most corrupt. I am not even sure the propaganda we are fed about China and the old USSR are quite as bad as what some of these guys have been getting away with lately.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Hasn't Harry Reid gone on record basically saying that he's fine with paying more in taxes if tax rates get raised though? Or am I confusing him with someone else on that?

Thought I kinda recalled that...I dunno.

Isn't that fucking sweet of him. All that means is that he'll have to find some more deductions, which is easy knowing how much being a Senator can be written off. They don't play by the same rules as you and I.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Hasn't Harry Reid gone on record basically saying that he's fine with paying more in taxes if tax rates get raised though? Or am I confusing him with someone else on that?

Thought I kinda recalled that...I dunno.

I am just saying that he has a populist message of "Eat the Rich" which is fine if you stick to your pinciples. But somehow this guy has been a public servant his whole life (for a state known for Casinos) and is somehow worth $4-6 million? Really? He is going to talk about rich people driving speedboats with a shady background like that? He is full of shit.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by panerd

The funniest part of all? There is actually someone on trial for lying to them.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but they aren't under oath in the general performance of their duties. Right?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Isn't that fucking sweet of him. All that means is that he'll have to find some more deductions, which is easy knowing how much being a Senator can be written off. They don't play by the same rules as you and I.

True.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by panerd

But in the end somehow people from both sides think these guys really care about their parties "values" and aren't just playing a big reelection game.

Any GOP'er who caves on this & allows a tax increase definitely isn't playing to get re-elected.

If Broun votes for anything that includes one in any form then he's dead to me from that point forward. And he's probably got a lot more good will built up with me than most have with their constituents, I've certainly never been more accurately represented in D.C. in my life as I've been with him over the past few years.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Correct me if I'm wrong, but they aren't under oath in the general performance of their duties. Right?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by panerd

{was legitimately asking to make sure I wasn't crazy or something}

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Any GOP'er who caves on this & allows a tax increase definitely isn't playing to get re-elected.

If Broun votes for anything that includes one in any form then he's dead to me from that point forward. And he's probably got a lot more good will built up with me than most have with their constituents, I've certainly never been more accurately represented in D.C. in my life as I've been with him over the past few years.

So you will vote Democrat, third party, or won't vote right? You won't cave and vote Republican because "he is the less of two evils" because then you are just encouraging the game.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

{was legitimately asking to make sure I wasn't crazy or something}

Yeah but look no farthur than Charley Rangel. My guess is they told him to leave and he told them to fuck themselves he would expose the whole game if they tried to kick him out of Congress. They don't give two shits about policing themselves.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by panerd

So you will vote Democrat, third party, or won't vote right? You won't cave and vote Republican because "he is the less of two evils" because then you are just encouraging the game.

I'd vote (and likely campaign) against him if there was (acceptable) primary opposition, it's extremely unlikely that I'd ever cast another vote for him in any election, primary or general. I've sat out races on several occasions for the lack of an acceptable candidate, he wouldn't be first, he'd only be next.

Show me a D that at least promises to hit the hot buttons right & I'll give them due consideration (except that's somewhere right beneath a combination dragon/unicorn in likelihood to find).

edit to add: Almost certainly lost to the ravages of time is any FOFC memory of the pro bono media work I did for the campaign of a black female D who ran against then-Rep. Charlie Norwood not all that many moons ago. When I'm on genuinely on the outs with a candidate, I'm really not bashful about it.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'd vote (and likely campaign) against him if there was (acceptable) primary opposition, it's extremely unlikely that I'd ever cast another vote for him in any election, primary or general. I've sat out races on several occasions for the lack of an acceptable candidate, he wouldn't be first, he'd only be next.

Show me a D that at least promises to hit the hot buttons right & I'll give them due consideration (except that's somewhere right beneath a combination dragon/unicorn in likelihood to find).

What I am saying is suppose he votes to increase the debt ceiling. Then he has an opponent for the Republican nomination. I completely understand you would be against him. However he still wins the nomination and ends up against a Democrat that actually has a good shot at winning. You are still not going to vote for him on principle? If so congratulations, you aren't like most! Otherwise the game continues.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by panerd

However he still wins the nomination and ends up against a Democrat that actually has a good shot at winning. You are still not going to vote for him on principle? If so congratulations, you aren't like most! Otherwise the game continues.

I won't lie & say that there's much chance of him seeing either serious primary opposition nor general election opposition any time soon, so the question may be largely moot.

But what theoretical principle would I be voting for if I cast a ballot for someone who crossed a significantly uncrossable line? If he's going to behave like a Republicrat then I'll treat him like one, he can go hang at that point.

Probably no surprise that I'm a fairly unforgiving voter, especially considering how realistic I am about the value of a single vote in something the size of a Congressional district.

edit to add/clarify: I'm okay with him voting to raise the debt ceiling this time around after exacting as many cuts as are reasonably available to be had. It's any tax increase at all (under the current tax system) that would put him on my shit list

[miked]

If they were under oath on the senate floor, they'd all be in jail. About 10% of what they say on the floor is the truth.

[gstelmack]

I like TMQ's take on this: if there are rich folks (like all these politicians and media personalities) who are all for raising taxes, they are more than welcome to start by adding money on their tax returns to help pay down the debt. Nothing stops them right now from voluntarily paying more taxes and putting their money where their mouth is.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I like TMQ's take on this: if there are rich folks (like all these politicians and media personalities) who are all for raising taxes, they are more than welcome to start by adding money on their tax returns to help pay down the debt. Nothing stops them right now from voluntarily paying more taxes and putting their money where their mouth is.

How is that any different from saying those in support of war should enlist or enlist their children? Or those in favor of funding X federal program should just send money there?

Federal policy requires collective action to be effective.

[JPhillips]

Terrible jobs report. Unemployment up to 9.2%. Government jobs on the decrease and private jobs nearing zero growth. Good thing we're focused on how to take more money out of the economy.

It would sure be nice if someone in Washington gave a crap about the current crisis rather than a future maybe crisis.

[I. J. Reilly]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Terrible jobs report. Unemployment up to 9.2%. Government jobs on the decrease and private jobs nearing zero growth. Good thing we're focused on how to take more money out of the economy.

It would sure be nice if someone in Washington gave a crap about the current crisis rather than a future maybe crisis.

Always worrying about the short term first is what got us into this mess. Sometimes you just have to take your medicine.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

How is that any different from saying those in support of war should enlist or enlist their children? Or those in favor of funding X federal program should just send money there?

Federal policy requires collective action to be effective.

I understand, I was just pointing out that that's a way to get the ball rolling. Many of those who do support the war send children or do enlist, for example. Not saying they should be the only ones to fund it, just saying that maybe if they put their money where the mouth was instead of crying about how evil the deductions are while taking every single possible one they can might make the rest of us listen to them a bit more.

Kind of like if you're going to have a conference on climate control, don't fly there in private jets...

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Terrible jobs report. Unemployment up to 9.2%. Government jobs on the decrease and private jobs nearing zero growth. Good thing we're focused on how to take more money out of the economy.

It would sure be nice if someone in Washington gave a crap about the current crisis rather than a future maybe crisis.

According to CNN (refuting the Romney claims about Obama being responsible for the slow recovery), everything is fine, the recession ended back in 2009.

[JPhillips]

Technically the recession did end in 2009. I wouldn't say Obama is responsible for the slow recovery, but it would sure be nice if he or someone else would start talking about what can be done to create jobs.

Between infrastructure and clean energy there are things the government can do.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by I. J. Reilly

Always worrying about the short term first is what got us into this mess. Sometimes you just have to take your medicine.

The millions of unemployed have been taking their medicine for years now.

And, without fixing unemployment there's little chance of solving the deficit. We're @500 billion lower in tax revenues due to the recession than we would be without the recession.

[JediKooter]

How do you find people jobs though for jobs that are never coming back? There has to be a massive shift for these people to get retrained. If these people aren't learning new skill sets by now or see the writing on the walls that they need to learn something different, there's nothing any government can do to help them in my opinion.

[JPhillips]

There isn't much evidence that there's been a huge technological shift in employment or a mass migration of jobs over the past two to three years. Unemployment is high in a lot of sectors, not limited to some sectors where change may have occurred. Add to that a huge increase in excess industrial capacity and it seems more likely that the major problem is a lack of demand causing companies to stop hiring.

I don't believe that we're at a new normal where 9% unemployment is just the way of things. That will only be true if the political class decides to make it true.