05-14-2009, 08:26 PM | #1401 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
I hate to toot my own horn, but he's actually reiterating a point I had made several times before that. But I agree. Still, I'd rather hold off on more analysis until day breaks. |
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05-14-2009, 08:27 PM | #1402 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
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Quote:
Thanks for reminding me about DT. His no vote on Day One and quick vote early today still makes me suspicious. But then he did switch his vote to EF early on, and didn't switch out. If PB is indeed a villager, then he comes off better there. If PB is a wolf, I think DT will be the most deserving target for a vote. I am interested to know who the seer scanned last night, and I hope they'll scan PB tonight. Not sure when they should come out, but at least when they do, we will have some more critical information with which to judge our votes.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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05-14-2009, 08:28 PM | #1403 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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05-14-2009, 08:28 PM | #1404 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
I can't deny that. Okay, since it looks like not even this has me at all cleared, I beg that everyone in the game focus all your energies and powers on me tonight, good, bad, independent win conditions, sexy (especially sexy), whatever, scan me, probe me, search me, sniff me, strip me, hug me, love me, spoon me, whatever but damn, I promise that I am good. |
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05-14-2009, 08:30 PM | #1405 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Still, I can't deny it was a little uncanny of hoops to call him out like that. Luck or not, hoops inadvertently led us to our first wolf.
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Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
05-14-2009, 08:31 PM | #1406 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Good point.
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Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
05-14-2009, 08:31 PM | #1407 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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You aren't cleared PB but you're in much better shape especially if Lathum backs off and we figure out what the hell he's up to.
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05-14-2009, 08:31 PM | #1408 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Off for some WoW.
__________________
Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
05-14-2009, 08:32 PM | #1409 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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05-14-2009, 08:32 PM | #1410 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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PB, you have to admit your late vote on NTN day 1 looks pretty bad considering EF came up wolf
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05-14-2009, 08:33 PM | #1411 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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05-14-2009, 08:34 PM | #1412 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
Oh yeah, no doubt. I tried too hard not to use the usual grudges (hoops, EF) for votes and unfortunately that is my only defense. That and, as you guys have heard, I keyed in on an either existent or non-existent ntn-Telle dynamic. |
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05-14-2009, 08:35 PM | #1413 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Sorry but I just don't see what you mean. Hoops voted early on EF day 1 and was stuck there and then today he voted early on PB and stayed there. |
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05-14-2009, 08:38 PM | #1414 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
Where's that 350 pound masseuse? |
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05-14-2009, 08:43 PM | #1415 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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05-14-2009, 08:52 PM | #1416 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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Quote:
you should keep in mind that you're always suspicious of me though i could reveal as the seer and you would still probably claim that i was bad I left my vote on PB while discussing EF? Yeah, cuz we were like...at least 6 hours away from deadline (i forget what time it was exactly). Moving my vote willy nilly at that point does nothing, particularly because idk if we know what the tiebreaker might be. For all we know, lathum's ability may have been triggered by getting enough of us to follow him on a vote, so maybe there was nothing wrong with my vote? Not like it got a roled villager lynched or anything. As a matter of fact, my eventual vote (quite early) helped us lynch a wolf. And I would argue that Autumn and I and you to some extent, started discussing EF as a potential wolf at about the same time. I'm not about to go back and look at timestamps to verify that, but that is the way that it "felt" to me.
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Get bent whoever hacked my pw and changed my signature. |
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05-14-2009, 08:55 PM | #1417 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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So if I had to guess right now who are wolves I would say PB, Hoops and Poli. The way Poli is saying hoops is cleared is confusing me.
I'm only saying this in case I befall some horrible fate. |
05-14-2009, 08:55 PM | #1418 | ||
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Quote:
I also very publicly declared that EF should be scanned yesterday (during the night action period when very few people were posting) and that I wanted an NTN/EF run-off yesterday. But I was on the wrong horse today, so I understand that I'm going to draw some suspicion. I'm fine with that; will be happy to talk further about my play tomorrow assuming I'm around. |
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05-14-2009, 08:59 PM | #1419 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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05-14-2009, 09:00 PM | #1420 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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By the way, I hope that the bodyguard has paid attention to the thread today. I think that his potential targets to guard should be a pretty small list.
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05-14-2009, 09:01 PM | #1421 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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As Chief has noted, we should have some really good vote analysis. I'm going to start on that in the next couple of minutes. My thought is that it is good to publish this now so that the seer has an option to consider it for his selection.
Do others agree with this, or is there concern that posting the vote tree - and the analysis - helps the wolves with target selection? |
05-14-2009, 09:02 PM | #1422 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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i don't see how it can help them more than it will help us (the villagers)
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Get bent whoever hacked my pw and changed my signature. |
05-14-2009, 09:02 PM | #1423 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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I'm cool with it
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05-14-2009, 09:03 PM | #1424 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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People I trust: Poli, Autumn, Lathum
People I don't: Telle, Hoops, The Jackal Middle-ground: The rest of you |
05-14-2009, 09:03 PM | #1425 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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OK, going to hit the showers now then will start working on it. Day 1 is already posted in case others want to take a shot and I had Day 2 already done up until I left for soccer. So I should be able to get working on it in the next hour, for sure.
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05-14-2009, 09:04 PM | #1426 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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05-14-2009, 09:06 PM | #1427 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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05-14-2009, 09:09 PM | #1428 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Not sure. Winterhoof? Does that make sense? That's the world I'm in.
__________________
Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
05-14-2009, 09:09 PM | #1429 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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I'm still kind of new to that game.
__________________
Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
05-14-2009, 09:10 PM | #1430 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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05-14-2009, 09:11 PM | #1431 |
Coordinator
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Location: New Hampshire
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05-14-2009, 09:11 PM | #1432 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Lightinghoof and Feathermoon
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05-14-2009, 09:13 PM | #1433 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
I went back through and looked. I think even though it was obvious that I was questioning Telle and obviously was not buying what she said, I didn't actually mention Eaglefan until I voted for him and explained that it felt to me that EF and Telle were in cahoots on day 1 and not Telle protecting ntn as some others claimed. Your posts were shortly after that, so I'll accept that you were near the start. I'm going to leave it at that as for me to go further in what my recap was I think would give too much of a roadmap for wolves to target tonight. It can be a conversation for tomorrow if people really want it. Like I said before, my focus tomorrow is likely on Telle. your posts wern't sitting well with me likely because I had made up my mind about Eaglefan before you had started posting about him (and I often get tunnelvision on things). So this probably isn't really a line of discussion that is going to be too fruitful to continue really. |
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05-14-2009, 09:13 PM | #1434 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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It does. You could make a case for it being a trust gainer after the issue was decided. But there was some chance for vote movement still, so it seems a chancy move. I want to look back at the vote with the possibility of a wolf/wolf showdown though and see what that suggests. |
05-14-2009, 09:15 PM | #1435 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
Sorry, forgot Alan. Fixed. |
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05-14-2009, 09:16 PM | #1436 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
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Altar of Storms, although I don't play anymore. They broked my class.
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05-14-2009, 09:17 PM | #1437 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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I'm not quite on the same boat as you about Lathum yet. I'll be nice and say that his perspective of the first two days and what they mean are about as completely opposite of mine as can be imagined. Part of me still wonders if he was completely honest with us, but in the end this isn't really a road I am ready to head down just yet. |
05-14-2009, 09:20 PM | #1438 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
lol, you really are unbelievable sometimes |
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05-14-2009, 09:20 PM | #1439 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
I still don't believe that PB is bad right now, but this exercise could likely be fairly easy in attempting to see who wanted a third party instead of PB or EF on day 1 (ntn votes) plus a third party instead of the two today (Telle or Hoops vots). But more than just the votes, who actively pursued third options when it was just them on the block. When I looked at this early this morning when I was trying to reconvince myself if I felt PB was still likely good, I noticed that the day 1 run off was EF + ntn at first, and ntn was slightly leading. Ntn showed up in the thread (there were actual posts stating he was there then), and suddenly votes started moving to a third party at that point (ended up being PB after a few other options were tossed about). Right now the strongest feeling i have are the people who were trying to keep the vote off of EF when ntn showed up (and it became likely some ntn voters might bail anyways now he was there). |
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05-14-2009, 09:21 PM | #1440 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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I don't get what you mean. You have said tonight that you feel PB is still bad (which I don't). You have listed several people as your top targets such as Poli who isn't anywhere near my untrust list just yet, and you completely ignore the person who seems the most untrusted to me (Telle). Like I said, you and I are seeing things from completely opposite perspectives right now. It makes me wonder why that is. That is all I said. |
05-14-2009, 09:22 PM | #1441 | ||
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
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Quote:
Atleast it can be said Lathum has his own agenda. Lathum do you have your own victory conditions? I'm still not getting why you had to vote PB today and that even though you voted PB an EF lynch was good for you as well. Quote:
I'm not sure what to make of the above quote. |
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05-14-2009, 09:24 PM | #1442 |
Coordinator
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Location: New Hampshire
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05-14-2009, 09:24 PM | #1443 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I would like us to also keep in our minds the presence of those with different win conditions than us and the Needies. The Jackal is one, who knows how many more there are or how that could play out in voting or other actions.
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05-14-2009, 09:26 PM | #1444 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
I think you have to add DT and clap in there as honorable mentions. By the way, I totally meant to 'accidentally' forget to unvote EF. |
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05-14-2009, 09:26 PM | #1445 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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dubb, we're on the same wavelength there.
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05-14-2009, 09:27 PM | #1446 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
Lathum, please don't be offended if I'm wrong and these are your actual thoughts. With your discussion with Alan T and then this post, I'm wondering something really odd. 1- Are you allowed to post your real beliefs? 2- Do you have to post the opposite of what you really believe? 3- Have you ever played World of Warcraft? See, number three tests his answer to #2. |
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05-14-2009, 09:27 PM | #1447 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Let me make it clear that my main win condition is winning with the group and that I won't do anything for any side-condition that jeopardises that. I'm not just a loner or anything.
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05-14-2009, 09:27 PM | #1448 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
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05-14-2009, 09:28 PM | #1449 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Having said that, I hope whatever Lathum did/will be able to do has a positive impact for all of us, not just for him.
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05-14-2009, 09:29 PM | #1450 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Vote/unvote chart from Day 2:
790 - Lathum votes PB 1-0 810 - DT votes PB 2-0 822 - Hoops votes PB 3-0 823 - Clap votes PB 4-0 846 - Dubb votes PB 5-0 875 - Clap unvotes PB 4-0 951 - Alan votes EF 4-1 PB over EF 969 - Autumn votes EF 4-2 PB over EF 971 - DT unvotes PB votes EF 3-3 PB/EF 985 - BK votes Hoops 3-3-1 PB/EF over Hoops 1001 - Dubb unvotes PB 3-2-1 EF over PB over Hoops 1014 - Dubb votes EF 4-2-1 EF over PB over Hoops 1016 - Pass votes Hoops 4-2-2 EF over PB/Hoops 1017 - PB votes Hoops 4-3-2 EF over Hoops over PB 1020 - Telle votes PB 4-3-3 EF over Hoops/PB 1045 - Abe votes PB 4-4-3 EF/PB over Hoops 1047 - Jackal votes EF 5-4-3 EF over PB over Hoops 1050 - Jackal unvotes EF, votes PB 5-4-3 PB over EF over Hoops 1080 - Saldana votes EF 5-5-3 PB/EF over Hoops 1112 - MartinD votes EF 6-5-3 EF over PB over Hoops 1120 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes PB 6-6-2 EF/PB over Hoops 1123 - PF votes EF 7-6-2 EF over PB over Hoops 1137 - Lerriuqs votes PB 7-7-2 EF/PB over Hoops 1157 - Pass unvotes Hoops, votes EF 8-7-1 EF over PB over Hoops 1166 - Chief votes PB 8-8-1 EF/PB over Hoops 1169 - PB unvotes Hoops, votes EF 9-8 EF over PB 1194 - Saldana unvotes EF, votes Hoops 8-8-1 EF/PB over Hoops 1199 - Poli votes PB, votes 9-8-1 PB over EF over Hoops 1256 - INVALID - no unvote (Pass votes Telle), votes 9-8-1 PB over EF over Hoops 1258 - PB unvotes EF, votes Telle 9-7-1-1 PB over EF over Hoops/Telle 1261 - Poli unvotes PB, votes Telle 8-7-2-1 PB over EF over Telle over Hoops 1265 - BK unvotes PB, votes Hoops 7-7-2-2 EF/PB over Telle/Hoops 1285 - Clap votes Telle 7-7-3-2 EF/PB over Telle over Hoops 1291 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes Telle 7-7-4-1 EF/PB over Telle over Hoops 1315 - PB unvotes Telle, votes EF 8-7-3-1 EF over PB over Telle over Hoops 1318 - Poli unvotes Telle, votes EF 9-7-2-1 EF over PB over Telle over Hoops |
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