Invasion of Ukraine

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Well, well, well. Getting interesting.

In more normal place & time, I think we'd owe Russia an apology.

are you fucking kidding me comrade?

The only thing we should ever owe them is turning their entire country to ashes.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

The only good Russian is a dead one.

I think that's a bit extreme as I suspect many people in that country are trapped in a political system they're not ok with.

I mean, if you're Joe Punchclock in Moscow, what are you going to do to stop Putin from invading? You can maybe join in the street protests, but those died down quite a bit in the winter (and with people disappearing). But beyond that, it's not like you're going to depose Putin yourself. I guess you could try to escape to another country, but that Russian passport doesn't get you to a lot of places these days and a lot of places don't like ethnic Russians (for reasons like, say, a crazy madman might use them as a pretense to try and take over territory).

I don't know if I've told this story before on this board, so forgive me if it's a repeat. But my wife and I went to Russia about 10 years ago - Moscow, Petersburg, and a couple of smaller places. Our guide in Moscow was awesome - a native Muscovite in the way that you think of a Native New Yorker or Native Los Angelino here - the ones who are fiercely proud of where they're from. It's not that they think your city is awful, they just think theirs is awesome and can't imagine being from anywhere else - you know the type. She was about our age and we spent a lot of time comparing our upbringings in the 80s and 90s: hers in big city Moscow, me in suburban Houston, and my wife in the rural Midwest - and how they weren't very different. For instance, she thought bread line stories were exaggerated by the western press and not that big of a deal - more of a rural thing or a phenomenon around stuff like Levi jeans, more akin to like the Cabbage Patch craze than genuine shortages.

We were talking about how members of the band Pussy Riot had been arrested for protesting inside one of the most famous Orthodox cathedrals in Moscow. And we were comparing how our press and their press were reporting it. We were talking about how, in the west, it was portrayed as Putin cracking down on free speech whereas in Russia is was being played off as young punks being arrested for trespassing and sacrilege. And she thought that was the general consensus among the Russian people about the incident. But she also said she wasn't exactly sure as they all knew they couldn't trust the state news. And she talked about how the populace just wasn't sure what to believe anymore as they'd been lied to so long, since before she was born. They knew the government was probably lying to them about practically everything but what could they do about it. And when we described what was going on in our country, especially with the right wing media ecosystem, she said something about how "it'll be you - just wait".

As an aside, the conversation then turned to how Russians are much more willing to believe in the spiritual and supernatural. Like I remember seeing Pravda and how some of the front page was what we think of as news, but some of it was more akin to the National Enquirer: angel sightings, UFOs, bigfoot, type stuff. I'm not saying some of those may or may not exist, but if, say, the New York Times or Fox News ran with a story on their front page about how a bunch of people saw an angel or UFO in the sky, without some sort of explanation, well, they just wouldn't. And, yeah, it looks like we're reaping what we were sewing with COVID denialism, fake election fraud, etc., and it probably doesn't improve for a while.

I guess this is a long way to say that just because your head of government is doing something crazy like taking over a neighbor unprovoked or, say, beating protestors (who are protesting the beating of protesters) to hold a Bible upside down for a photo op on the front steps of your national government - there are probably a lot of people who disagree with that stance. And maybe it's not because they promote or even agree with their government, but because they feel powerless to do much else.

SI

[Edward64]

Good read on how the Mariupol siege negotiations & surrender happened. The steelworks place where Azov was holed up was 4 square miles (didn't realize that). I can picture oil refineries that large but steelworks? Can't imagine that size.

About 2000 of them still POW.

Mariupol: Inside the secret talks with Putin's generals that ended the siege | CNN

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

The only good Russian is a dead one.

Disgusting.

Originally Posted by Lathum

The only thing we should ever owe them is turning their entire country to ashes.

This as well. That's not an appropriate response for any situation.

[Edward64]

TBF, I took it as sarcastic humor

But then I may be wrong as you and SI took it to mean a little more.

[Edward64]

With news today of Russia's attack, I was wondering about the Patriots and status.

This comes after Ukrainian officials say 81 missiles were fired by the Russian military, as the conflict escalated overnight into Thursday morning.

Apparently not yet in Ukraine but happening soon.

"Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of National Defense of Poland, Mariusz Błaszczak wanted to stress (in an interview with La Razon - ed.) that thanks to Poland's efforts, a decision was made to transfer the Patriot battery," the ministry said, emphasizing that first Polish Leopard tanks are already in Ukraine.

The ministry noted that a mention by the Polish minister in the Spanish publication about the Patriot air defense system’s arrival in Ukraine was obviously a translation mistake.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

This as well. That's not an appropriate response for any situation.

Why?

That is exactly what they are doing to Ukraine. Worked pretty well for us in WWII.

[JPhillips]

As we all suspected, Trump's plan to keep a war from happening was to give parts of Ukraine to Russia.

And Fox dutifully edited this out when they aired their interview with Trump.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

TBF, I took it as sarcastic humor

Well, I guess I was wrong.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Why?

That is exactly what they are doing to Ukraine. Worked pretty well for us in WWII.

It is not at all what they are doing to Ukraine, though they likely would if they had the ability to do so. The enemy of Ukraine is the Russian government, not the Russian people. Substantial numbers, in some cases majorities, of the people in the countries that were our WWII enemies opposed the actions of their governments as well.

Isn't the whole point here that the US and others hold Russia's invasion to be wrong? Or is your point that it isn't wrong at all, but simply a case of them being on the wrong side of some geopolitical divide, and other nations would be perfectly justified in doing the same thing if they were in Russia's position?

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

The U.S. owes Russia an apology for suggesting they may have had a role in the pipeline attack when Russia has been gaslighting the U.S. for over 20 years, in addition to tampering with elections, waging constant cyber attacks, and assassinating people literally on our allies' soil (e.g. the UK)?

How about no.

The standard for this should not be how the other nation is behaving, but how we should behave as a nation. IF we make false accusations based on insufficient evidence, we should apologize for it and endeavor not to do so in the future.

The fact that such things have become commonplace and our government is in practice nearly broken isn't a reason to just say it's ok. Much of what you describe here is similar to actions the US has taken and in some cases still is taking in various places around the world.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

It is not at all what they are doing to Ukraine, though they likely would if they had the ability to do so. The enemy of Ukraine is the Russian government, not the Russian people. Substantial numbers, in some cases majorities, of the people in the countries that were our WWII enemies opposed the actions of their governments as well.

Isn't the whole point here that the US and others hold Russia's invasion to be wrong? Or is your point that it isn't wrong at all, but simply a case of them being on the wrong side of some geopolitical divide, and other nations would be perfectly justified in doing the same thing if they were in Russia's position?

I might have more sympathy for the average Russian if they didn't support the invasion.

[Brian Swartz]

That's the point though; they don't all support it.

It's also true that the great majority of people go with the values of the culture they are in. If the posters on this board were Russian, it's simply a fact of human nature that a significant number of us would be among the supporters of the war. Especially in a an authoritarian country where dissent is not exactly encouraged. 'We' are not superior morally to the Russians. We were simply born somewhere else.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

That's the point though; they don't all support it.

It's also true that the great majority of people go with the values of the culture they are in. If the posters on this board were Russian, it's simply a fact of human nature that a significant number of us would be among the supporters of the war. Especially in a an authoritarian country where dissent is not exactly encouraged. 'We' are not superior morally to the Russians. We were simply born somewhere else.

see: The invasion of Iraq.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

That's the point though; they don't all support it.

Specifically to this quote, I've seen polls of 75%'ish. So a great many of them do support it. I do suspect much of this is the "us against the west" factor vs saving Ukraine BS.

It's also true that the great majority of people go with the values of the culture they are in. If the posters on this board were Russian, it's simply a fact of human nature that a significant number of us would be among the supporters of the war. Especially in a an authoritarian country where dissent is not exactly encouraged. 'We' are not superior morally to the Russians. We were simply born somewhere else.

But yeah, I'm with you on this one. The blame is on the Russian leadership, military apparatus, politicians etc. Let's call it 20-80. I wouldn't mind if that 20% goes away.

[flere-imsaho]

You believe a poll coming out of Russia?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

You believe a poll coming out of Russia?

Fair enough, I cannot vouch for the polls. It was in a Bloomberg article (ran out of free reads) but think it was referring to below

Chart: Levada See 75 Percent of Russians Supporting War | Statista

According to a new survey by the independent institute Levada Center, 75 percent of Russian said in January that they supported the actions of Russian military forces in Ukraine, as the survey is putting it. This support dipped to 72 percent in September around the announcement of partial mobilization and again to 71 percent in December. When the war had just started in March, support had been at 80 percent.

[GrantDawg]

I would guess the number is high because of the danger of speaking against the government there, but it would still be a majority if they were put on a lie detector for the survey. You have to remember the media consumption of the average Russian is constantly barraging them with "Ukranian government is Nazi's" propaganda. We can see how here in the States people get suckered in to propaganda even when they have more choices and can easily get a varied opinion. Even if you don't trust the source, if a message gets drilled into your head over and over again it is going to affect how you think.

[sterlingice]

If I get stopped in the street or get a call on my phone to answer questions in the US, I figure it's someone like Gallop or a university calling to create a poll. Let's say it's Rasmussen, a GOP-leaning pollster, and I answer with answers supporting Democrats, nothings going to happen to me.

If I get stopped in the street in Russia or get a call on my phone and I answer anything other than support for Putin, I'd be a little worried about open windows or polonium poisoning.

SI

[Brian Swartz]

Yep. Let's assume for the moment the 75% number is accurate, even though the numbers I've seen coming out of Russia are not that high, and purport to be leaked polls by the government itself. What that means is that 25% are so opposed that despite being propagandized in favor of the war and the fact that it's risky to oppose their authoritarian government, they still oppose it. And are also thrown into the 'only good Russian is a dead Russian' category despite this.

[Edward64]

I'm not sure if good or bad. I'll lean towards good as Xi will also be talking to Zelenskyy.

Maybe China will be considered the "best of bad list of honest brokers" that both sides can halfway trust. Doubt much will be accomplished but its a start for further discussions later in year.

China’s Xi to meet Putin in Moscow, speak to Zelenskyy: reports – POLITICO

Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning to visit Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin as early as next week, according to reports by Reuters and the Wall Street Journal.

The U.S. newspaper added that Xi would also call Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which will be the first time the two men will have had direct communication, at least publicly, since the Russian invasion started more than a year ago.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

You believe a poll coming out of Russia?

Support is pretty similar to our support for the Iraq War early on.

I don't think it's far-fetched when you consider they don't have a free press in the country. The average Russian likely only has access to Russian propoganda.

[GrantDawg]

I think they are going to have to bring in Maverick as cover to bring back that drone:

STUTTGART, Germany (AP) — US military: Russian fighter jets strike US surveillance drone over Black Sea; American forces bring it down.

— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) March 14, 2023

[Edward64]

Not in his wheelhouse.

Has to be Arnold or Sly or John Wick or Jason Bourne.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Not in his wheelhouse.

Has to be Arnold or Sly or John Wick or Jason Bourne.

They wouldn't fly air-cover. Seal Team 6 is who will get the drone.

[GrantDawg]

The Russian jet literally struck the drone while it was harrasing it. The Russian almost went down as well.



[Edward64]

You'd think the drone pilot back in the trailer at operating base would have evaded? I know its not that maneuverable but figure its got to be more maneuverable than the Russian Migs

This guy will do an analysis soon.

C.W. Lemoine - YouTube

[Bobble]

The Russian jet playing chicken against an unmanned drone reminds me of that old joke:

This is the transcript of a radio conversation of a US naval ship with Canadian authorities off the coast of Newfoundland

Americans: Please divert your course 15 degrees to the North to avoid a collision.

Canadians: Recommend you divert YOUR course 15 degrees to the South to avoid a collision.

Americans: This is the Captain of a US Navy ship. I say again, divert YOUR course.

Canadians: No. I say again, you divert YOUR course.

Americans: This is the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln, the second largest ship in the United States' Atlantic fleet. We are accompanied by three destroyers, three cruisers and numerous support vessels. I demand that YOU change your course 15 degrees north, that's one five degrees north, or countermeasures will be undertaken to ensure the safety of this ship.

Canadians: This is a lighthouse. Your call.

I mean as the drone driver, you're not going to be too concerned about avoiding collision with the enemy if the consequences to you are merely a bit more paperwork.

[Edward64]

I saw that video somewhere on YT. Pretty funny

[Edward64]

Interesting video.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/us-militar...ry?id=97902649

U.S. European Command has released dramatic declassified video taken by the MQ-9 Reaper drone that shows the moment that a Russian Su-27 fighter jet collided with it after attempting to spray the drone with jet fuel.

The video was taken from a camera on the drone’s underside and shows two different passes taken by the jets to spray the drone, the second one being the collision with the propeller at the rear of the drone, which is visible in the footage.

Communications were lost with the drone as the image can be seen pixelating into color bars.

EUCOM also confirmed that communications with the drone were down for a minute and that the released video was edited for time.

The second part of the video shows a longer clip and I do see the bent propeller. That Mig was a split second from being taken out itself. I guess the Russian version of Tom Cruise.

When the video feed resumed one of the propeller blades can be seen damaged from the collision with the Russian fighter.

[Edward64]

Just another tick towards Midnight.

Russia plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus, President Vladimir Putin said Saturday.

Moscow will complete the construction of a special storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus by the beginning of July, Putin told state broadcaster Russia 1.

He said Moscow had already transferred an Iskander short-range missile system, a device which can be fitted with nuclear or conventional warheads, to Belarus.

During the interview, Putin said Russia had helped Belarus convert 10 aircraft to make them capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads and would start training pilots to fly the re-configured planes early next month.

And apparently Xi did not talk with Zelenskyy when he visited Putin. I guess we know which camp China is (clearly) leaning towards now.

[Edward64]

Welp, new tanks are arriving. Spring is coming up. Combat is going to restart in earnest soon.

Here's to Ukraine doing well, and to another year of a horrible but yet militarily interesting war.

Advanced battle tanks donated by Western allies — including Leopard 2s from Germany and Challengers from the United Kingdom — have started to arrive in Ukraine, bolstering the country's armed forces after months of pleading for reinforcements.

On Monday, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Ukraine had received Challenger main battle tanks from the UK; Stryker infantry fighting vehicles and Cougar infantry mobility vehicles from the United States; and Marder infantry fighting vehicles from Germany.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Berlin had also delivered Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

“Yes, we delivered Leopard tanks as we announced," Scholz said during a joint news conference with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in Rotterdam on Monday.

And three Leopard 2 main battle tanks donated by Portugal have arrived in Ukraine, the country’s ministry of defense said in a statement on Monday.

[albionmoonlight]

Now would be a good time for a patriotic Russian to assassinate Putin.

(Though I suppose any time is a good time to assassinate Putin.)

[Edward64]

If accurate, I like and don't like this.

I think wives are fair game if they are used to identify the suspected war criminals (not just regular soldiers). However, I don't think its fair to publicize it where there may be repercussions to the wives.

(FWIW, #3 seems to be the top vote getter)

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/sta...htmode%3Dfalse

Ukrainian hackers contacted a wife of a russian war criminal, posing as an officer from her husband’s unit and asking for a photoshoot of all the wives from the unit as a ‘surprise’ for the husbands.

Now we have identities of 12 soldiers responsible for the Mariupol bombings.

The presumed war crime (and more pics of wives)

Ukrainian hackers say they uncovered identity of Russian colonel behind the destruction of Mariupol | Daily Mail Online

[Edward64]

Ukraine is denying involvement (and do they really care that much about a popular blogger?). Speculation is he was affiliated with Wagner so some internal power struggle going on.

Either way, you'd think there was an easier way to take him out than plant a bomb that killed 25+ innocent (assumed) civilians.

St. Petersburg cafe explosion kills Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky | CNN

A well-known Russian military blogger was killed in an explosion at a cafe in St. Petersburg on Sunday, officials said, in what appeared to be an audacious attack on a high-profile pro-Kremlin figure.

Vladlen Tatarsky died when a blast tore through the cafe where he was appearing as a guest of a pro-war group called Cyber Front Z. Authorities said they were treating the case as suspected murder.

Twenty-five other people were injured in the blast, 19 of whom were hospitalized, the city’s governor said. The Russian Ministry of Health said six people were in critical condition. Investigators were questioning everyone who was inside the cafe, state media reported. Photos of the scene showed extensive damage to the building in which the cafe was located.

EDIT: Wagner owner also owned the cafe. He's doesn't think it was Ukraine

Prigozhin confirmed that the cafe in which the explosion occurred belonged to him and commented on the incident:

”Indeed, I gave the cafe to the patriotic movement KIBER FRONT Z, and they held various seminars there. This tragedy most likely occurred at the seminar. As for the death of Daria Dugina - yes, everything is similar. But I wouldn't blame the Kyiv regime for these actions. I think a group of radicals who are unlikely to have any connections with the government are acting."

[Edward64]

A little interesting read on Putin from one of his guards that defected in late 2022. #1 and #3 stuck out. Question practicality, accuracy of #2.

Member of Kremlin Guard Flees Russia, Details Putin’s Secret Life - The Moscow Times

Karakulov is the highest-ranking member of Russia’s special services known to have defected in the country’s modern history, the Dossier Center said.

Over the course of an hour-long interview, he shared details about Putin’s habits, family and health.

1. Karakulov said Putin still does not use smartphones or the internet and demands that Russian state-run television be available on his foreign trips.

2. He added that Putin remains paranoid about getting infected with Covid-19 three years into the pandemic and forces every employee to quarantine for two weeks before they can be in the same room with him.

3. Still, Karakulov denied speculation that the 70-year-old leader was suffering from an undisclosed illness: “He’s in better health than many other people his age.”

4. Karakulov said Putin’s family, which the Russian president has never publicly identified, was an “open secret” that had been discussed among fellow FSO officers. He recalled colleagues mentioning Putin staying in his residences with his rumored daughters or partners.

5. Karakulov also confirmed reports that Putin has identical offices in several residences. He shared an anecdote of witnessing Putin at his office in Sochi while a television report said he was holding a meeting at his residence outside Moscow,

[Edward64]

From the US intel leak. I know US has said some of the numbers have been altered but below is what CNN reported in one of the docs.

The total Russian casualties passes my sniff test as it's similar to what a daily tracker is reporting in reddit. I've not seen any previous estimates for Ukraine but interesting to see US estimates. The KIA for both seems low to me.

Leaked Pentagon documents provide rare window into depth of US intelligence on allies and foes | CNN Politics

According to one of the documents, Russian forces had suffered 189,500 to 223,000 casualties as of February, including as many as 43,000 troops killed in action. Ukraine, meanwhile, had suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties, with up to 17,500 killed in action, the report says.

Also from the leaks, US is concerned about below. Probably the reason why there's been movement on NATO jets (legacy Migs) sent to Ukraine.

Leaked documents detail dire assessments of Ukrainian army: reports | The Hill

The Washington Post reported that one of the leaked Pentagon documents detailed that Ukraine’s air defense may not be able to protect the front lines through the end of May. One of the documents included an assessment from February from the Defense Department’s Joint Staff, which said Ukraine’s “ability to provide medium range air defense to protect the [front lines] will be completely reduced by May 23,” according to the Post.

The reported classified document also says once Ukraine’s first layer of defense munitions run out, the “2nd and 3rd Layer expenditure rates will increase, reducing the ability to defend against Russian aerial attacks from all altitudes.”

[Edward64]

There's a nasty beheading video making the rounds. Didn't want to watch it but descriptions I've read are pretty horrifying.

I understand the need to kill in a war. But those that relish in torture just need to be exterminated

In other news ...

No surprise there are special forces in Ukraine (per the leak).

I am surprised at the small US numbers. Guess the SAS is taking lead here. The single Dutch operator must have missed a turn.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065

The UK is among a number of countries with military special forces operating inside Ukraine, according to one of dozens of documents leaked online.
:
According to the document, dated 23 March, the UK has the largest contingent of special forces in Ukraine (50), followed by fellow Nato states Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1).

[Edward64]

Per the leaks, apparently Russia fired on a manned UK aircraft last Sept. Fortunately, the missile failed to launch.

If the plane was shot down, don't think it would have brought UK boots on the ground, but probably accelerate timeline/quantity of whatever UK was supplying Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/w...?smid=tw-share

A Russian fighter jet fired a missile at a manned British surveillance aircraft flying over the Black Sea in September but the munition malfunctioned, according to U.S. defense officials and a recently leaked classified U.S. intelligence report. The incident was far more serious than originally portrayed and could have amounted to an act of war.

According to two U.S. defense officials, the Russian pilot had misinterpreted what a radar operator on the ground was saying to him and thought he had permission to fire. The pilot, who had locked on the British aircraft, fired, but the missile did not launch properly.

In October, Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, described the close call in a briefing to Parliament members as “potentially dangerous” after the Russian fighter jet “released a missile in the vicinity” of the British aircraft. But one of the leaked documents said the Sept. 29 event was a “near-shoot down.”

The British aircraft is often manned with a crew of around 30 people and is capable of intercepting radio traffic.

[Edward64]

Only in America can something like this happen ...

A captured Russian tank from the war in Ukraine mysteriously showed up at a truck stop in Louisiana, report says

A captured Russian tank from the war in Ukraine mysteriously showed up at a truck stop in Louisiana, military publication The War Zone reported on Thursday.

Employees at Peto's Travel Center and Casino in Roanoke, Louisiana, told the outlet they were stumped when they saw that someone had left a Russian T-90A tank on a truck trailer in their parking lot, which is located off the Interstate 10 highway.

Some staff did add that a group of men had dropped the tank off on Tuesday, saying that the truck they were transporting it on had broken down and that they needed to travel to Houston to get a new one.

The men were not identified and have not returned it yet.

Spokespeople from two nearby military bases — one in Fort Polk, which is around 60 miles north, and one in New Boston, Texas, which is about 240 miles north of the truck stop — said it did not immediately appear the tank was headed there.

"My opinion is this tank is probably owned by a private citizen or company," the Fort Polk spokesperson told The War Zone. "It doesn't seem likely the military would leave something like that unattended."

[sterlingice]

It's still no Tiger Truck Stop. Oh, Louisiana

SI

[Edward64]

Mystery solved.

I'd think they would have shipped it under some sort of cover or tarp.

The shipping label, photographs of which were shared with us by Louisiana resident John Phelps, shows it was sent from an organization called the “multinational assessment field team” with the port of embarkation listed as Gdynia, Poland. Its port of destination was Beaumont, Texas, about 90 miles west of where the tank wound up. The "ultimate consignee" on the label is Building 358, 6850 Lanyard Rd., Aberdeen Proving Ground. That's the home of the U.S. Army Aberdeen Test Center (ATC).

[Edward64]

I'm not sure I believe this or it's working as well as it's being claimed. But still a imaginative use for a Steam Deck.

I always loved the scene on Aliens where the space marines put out a movement sensor (?) machine gun to take out the bugs.

Steam Deck Controls a Real Ukrainian Army Machine Gun Turret: Report | Tom's Hardware

Valve's Steam Deck is making headlines in Ukraine as the a new tool for the Ukrainian army. To clarify: a recent posting demonstrated a remote-controlled machine gun turret that seems to be powered (or at least controlled by) the popular portable PC gaming handheld device.
:
TPO Media shared some details about how the Sablya can be operated remotely from up to half a kilometer (500m) away — which is nearly one-third of a mile, keeping the operator out of hot zones. The turret seems like it will be used for both stationary operation and vehicle mounting.

Additionally, the Sablya is able to defeat low-flying enemy drones, according to the TRO Media post — which could be pivotal now that Russia is said to be quietly acquiring more of these types of weapons from China.

[Edward64]

The Russian hypersonic missile isn't as great as once feared. US confirms the kill by the Patriot.

The below article does not go into details but speculation I've read is the missile has to slow down when it gets close, which the Patriots can then exploit.

Pentagon confirms Ukraine downed Russian missile with Patriot system | The Hill

The Ukrainian military has downed a Russian missile using the U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system, the Pentagon’s top spokesman confirmed Tuesday.

“I can confirm that they did down a Russian missile by employing the Patriot missile defense system,” press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters. “As you know, that system is part of a broader range of air defense capabilities that the United States and the international community have provided to Ukraine.”

Ukrainian officials said Saturday that a U.S.-supplied Patriot was used to hit an incoming Russian hypersonic missile over Kyiv earlier that week.

[Edward64]

Nice of the Brits. With this missile, Ukraine can supposedly hit the Crimean bridge and force the Russians to further back away their supply depots etc.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65558070

The UK has confirmed it is supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles it requested for its fight against invading Russian forces.

The Storm Shadow cruise missile has a range of over 250km (155 miles), according to the manufacturer.

By contrast, the US-supplied Himars missiles used by Ukraine only have a range of around 80 km (50 miles).

Below is an interesting quote. I'd think Ukraine would want to hit military targets within Russia also (e.g. supply depots and like), and believe UK agrees that Crimea is Ukrainian.

I assume this promise was given to the Brits but can see the request coming up in the future.

Earlier this year, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov insisted longer-range missiles would not be used to attack targets within Russia itself.

"If we could strike at a distance of up to 300 kilometres, the Russian army wouldn't be able to provide defence and will have to lose," he told an EU meeting.

"Ukraine is ready to provide any guarantees that your weapons will not be involved in attacks on the Russian territory."

Read many different opinions about if/when/how to reclaim Crimea. No idea how really feasible it is, and definitely fraught with risks. But I do believe retaking Crimea will significantly change the dynamics of the war, and fair chance to bring down Putin with the inevitable internal dissension. So I'm rooting for a Crimea campaign.

[Edward64]

The odds are against the Wagner guy doing this. He has to know if this came out, he'd be toast.

But great psyops. Now Putin and military leadership are wondering ... could it be.

Kremlin comments on articles of Western media about Wagner PMC owner trying to negotiate with Ukrainian intelligence

Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, has said that the information of The Washington Post about the alleged attempts of the leader of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) Yevgeny Prigozhin to negotiate with Ukrainian intelligence is a hoax.

Source: Peskov during a press call on 15 May

Quote: "I can't [comment – ed.], but it looks like another hoax. Unfortunately, even respected publications in recent times quite often do not disdain it. "

Earlier: The Washington Post, citing data from leaked documents, reported that the owner of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin suggested providing Ukraine with the locations of Russian troops, in exchange for the Armed Forces of Ukraine moving their units out of Bakhmut, where mercenaries were being killed en masse.

[GrantDawg]

9 cruise missiles, 6 hyper-sonic missiles, and 3 ballistic missiles were shot at Kiev. All were shot down by Patriots. The Russians also sent a number. They were trying to overwhelm the defense systems but failed.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

I read that too. But I also read that pro Russian sources are saying there were big explosions in the area where the Patriot battery was.

If the Patriot is still alive and intercepted more and multiple hypersonic missiles, a great victory for … Raytheon

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I read that too. But I also read that pro Russian sources are saying there were big explosions in the area where the Patriot battery was.

If the Patriot is still alive and intercepted more and multiple hypersonic missiles, a great victory for … Raytheon

30 Patriots were shot out, which is $160 million dollars worth of ordinance. They do their job well, but the cost is probably going to be untenable long term. I imagine that was at most $15-20 million in ordinance shot down?
edit: maybe more. Those hypersonics are probably pretty costly.
edit edit: Saw one source had the attacking ordinance at $119 million.

[GrantDawg]

The UK and Netherlands are forming a coalition to bring F-16's to Ukraine. Our NATO allies are really going to have to pick up the slack arming Ukraine, because I doubt new money is going to be coming from the US after the 6 billion we have left to send them.

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