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Old 08-17-2006, 10:06 PM   #1401
Swaggs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo
intriguing swaggs. but i suspect the vet among the wolves would already be scrutinizing the voting records to try to find the "mason bloc"

then again, presuming there was someone at least remotely smart within the masons they would ensure that THEY at least would not vote with the other masons in order to keep themselves concealed.

i'm not worried about all the masons being revealed. and if i'm the wolves i'm not worried about the masons either, at least not at this point, as we villagers havn't exactly had great success in finding the baddies and we're teetering on the brink anyways.

Keep in mind that the masons know who one another are, but are not in communication with each other. They can only work together subtly (sp?).
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:07 PM   #1402
DaddyTorgo
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Originally Posted by Chief Rum
Swaggs, take this for what it's worth, since of course, this is me trying to clear myself, but I think a few people have fallen victim to the "I heard this guy screaming his accusation so much, I gotta believe him, right?" theory.

As you said, Blade at no point presented anything of a case against me, or even much I could even defend myself. He just kept saying I was number one on his list for some reason. What few reasons he gave seemed pretty weak to me.

I think it is far more likely Blade couldn't find too many incriminating things to say about anyone besides him and picked a couple (Anxiety and I) he thought he could yell about enough to sway us. It had nothing to do with any special inferences--he was just trying to save his butt by going after anyone but him. Notice his conviction wasn't so strong to stick on me when molson became a viable alternative earlier today.

you have been UTR for the most part though CR. Although I'm not a vet so I'm not sure if that's entirely normal for you.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:07 PM   #1403
Barkeep49
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Originally Posted by Swaggs
SnDvls, I glossed over this the first time around because I didn't want to draw attention to it, but I don't want to look guilty, so here goes:

Your little game of "if you were a mason...", to me, is a very blatent attempt to try to out the masons by getting them to participate and then grouping them together to see whose choices match up. If you are a wolf, as I suspect you are, you would already know your fellow wolves and would be able to match anyone else that participated in it up, as they would obviously not choose other masons.
I agree with this and lean towards sndvls being bad as a result. But if it didn't mean autodeath for the masons, it would almost be worth them revealing at this point so I'm not sure a desire to know who the masons are is an autmoatic signal of his being a bad guy at this point in the game. But it sure does seem like it stinks.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:08 PM   #1404
Barkeep49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo
you have been UTR for the most part though CR. Although I'm not a vet so I'm not sure if that's entirely normal for you.
This is only his second game I believe so there is no "normal" for him yet.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:08 PM   #1405
DaddyTorgo
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Originally Posted by Swaggs
Keep in mind that the masons know who one another are, but are not in communication with each other. They can only work together subtly (sp?).

right. but IF i was a vet and a mason (neither of which I am) I would ensure that I didn't vote with the other masons EVERY TIME in order to keep myself camoflauged, and would hope that my other masons would do the same.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:09 PM   #1406
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo
*shrug* it feels almost like a promise to a dying friend at this point. but i guess that's silly and sentimental since blade isn't actually "dead" and i certainly don't want to waste my vote.

but blade must have had a reason for thinking CR was a baddie.

And I asked him to reveal that reason, too, but he came up with weak responses (my failed vote on Day 1, which I explained; my wondering if the three villagers who died Day/Night 2 were villagers; and my sudden activity on Day/Noght 3 when I was threatened). BTW, I never spoke about that one, but everyone knows I was working both jobs the first two nights. I'm more active now, because, duh, I'm home.

Blade's best reason was his "gut", and I would hope that's not going to be the best "evidence" we have to lynch someone tomorrow.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:09 PM   #1407
DaddyTorgo
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49
I agree with this and lean towards sndvls being bad as a result. But if it didn't mean autodeath for the masons, it would almost be worth them revealing at this point so I'm not sure a desire to know who the masons are is an autmoatic signal of his being a bad guy at this point in the game. But it sure does seem like it stinks.

why would it be worth the masons revealing? just so we had 3 definitive villagers? they don't know anything about anyone else don't forget, just that each other are masons
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:10 PM   #1408
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Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo
right. but IF i was a vet and a mason (neither of which I am) I would ensure that I didn't vote with the other masons EVERY TIME in order to keep myself camoflauged, and would hope that my other masons would do the same.
Seems like as good of a time as any to ask how many masons we think there are. I had been assuming 2, but with it seeming like there are no secret roles, do people think 3 is a possiblity?
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:10 PM   #1409
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Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo
*shrug* it feels almost like a promise to a dying friend at this point. but i guess that's silly and sentimental since blade isn't actually "dead" and i certainly don't want to waste my vote.

but blade must have had a reason for thinking CR was a baddie.
Well, CR said he was not going to vote on day one and did not. Saldana said a guy named Bek said he was too sick to vote had used that strategy affectively for a few days. Blade, said Beck is a friend and was really sick. Saldana said Beck gave him the nod nod answer when asked if it was strategy after the game.

Doesn't help much and I don't know, CR has been invisible since day one.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:11 PM   #1410
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Originally Posted by Chief Rum
And I asked him to reveal that reason, too, but he came up with weak responses (my failed vote on Day 1, which I explained; my wondering if the three villagers who died Day/Night 2 were villagers; and my sudden activity on Day/Noght 3 when I was threatened). BTW, I never spoke about that one, but everyone knows I was working both jobs the first two nights. I'm more active now, because, duh, I'm home.

Blade's best reason was his "gut", and I would hope that's not going to be the best "evidence" we have to lynch someone tomorrow.

i agree we need a better reason than that. but i don't have a real better reason than that for looking at molson right now either.

SnDvls...there's a bit of a better case for him with this "mason" thing, at least seems like Swaggs and Barkeep think so...
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:11 PM   #1411
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Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo
why would it be worth the masons revealing? just so we had 3 definitive villagers? they don't know anything about anyone else don't forget, just that each other are masons
12 people left. 2 masons reveal. 10 people left. 3 wolves. 1 Dr. R. 1 Dracula. We now have a fifty/fifty shot of hitting a bad guy versuses 5/12. Once we hit one bad guy the whole ball of wax threatens to unravel as we start to link up other bad guys. And we still would have a margin of error of 2 people.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:11 PM   #1412
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But let me emphasize that this is a moot point with this role set.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:12 PM   #1413
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo
you have been UTR for the most part though CR. Although I'm not a vet so I'm not sure if that's entirely normal for you.

It's only my second game. I think readers of the my first WW experience we know that I had a similar "two jobs==disappear" situation there, and will be familair with that with me.

Obviously, when I have to miss whole swathes of days, it makes me look UTR. But as you can see, when I am home, I am an active poster (even on the first couple nights, you will see I was posting very early and late).
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:12 PM   #1414
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Originally Posted by Chief Rum
And I asked him to reveal that reason, too, but he came up with weak responses (my failed vote on Day 1, which I explained; my wondering if the three villagers who died Day/Night 2 were villagers; and my sudden activity on Day/Noght 3 when I was threatened). BTW, I never spoke about that one, but everyone knows I was working both jobs the first two nights. I'm more active now, because, duh, I'm home.

Blade's best reason was his "gut", and I would hope that's not going to be the best "evidence" we have to lynch someone tomorrow.
I agree Blade was going off of little tangible evidence. But as Gladwell would say intution can be a remarkable thing.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:12 PM   #1415
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49
Seems like as good of a time as any to ask how many masons we think there are. I had been assuming 2, but with it seeming like there are no secret roles, do people think 3 is a possiblity?

i had assumed 3...i don't know why.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:15 PM   #1416
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ok heres some of my thoughts.

i think swaggs is trustworthy. i doubt he would have made some masterplan to frame Blade or been planning killings with his wife sick. just a gut feeling.
ps hope your wife get better Swaggs

second, a noobie is a wolf that im sure of, in my first WW game he made me a "wolf", and with so many first timers one is bound to be a wolf. my guess is Greyroofoo or Farrah. theyve been hanging real low profile.

i guess i havnt read whats the Molson angle that have yall on him?

Blade nailed me a few games ago just on gut feeling, and he also has a gut feeling on CR, but he was most likely just trying to save his own ass. besides he didnt even vote for the guy he thought was a wolf
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:15 PM   #1417
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49
12 people left. 2 masons reveal. 10 people left. 3 wolves. 1 Dr. R. 1 Dracula. We now have a fifty/fifty shot of hitting a bad guy versuses 5/12. Once we hit one bad guy the whole ball of wax threatens to unravel as we start to link up other bad guys. And we still would have a margin of error of 2 people.

wow. nice math. i wonder if there's a way we could get this...say by effectively revealing the masons through some sort of action it'd be hard for baddies to mess up...a timed thing or something. but that would prolly be bad form hmmm?
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:16 PM   #1418
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Originally Posted by bulletsponge
ok heres some of my thoughts.

i think swaggs is trustworthy. i doubt he would have made some masterplan to frame Blade or been planning killings with his wife sick. just a gut feeling.
ps hope your wife get better Swaggs

second, a noobie is a wolf that im sure of, in my first WW game he made me a "wolf", and with so many first timers one is bound to be a wolf. my guess is Greyroofoo or Farrah. theyve been hanging real low profile.

i guess i havnt read whats the Molson angle that have yall on him?

Blade nailed me a few games ago just on gut feeling, and he also has a gut feeling on CR, but he was most likely just trying to save his own ass. besides he didnt even vote for the guy he thought was a wolf
Can't criticise a guy for trying to save his life. He didn't exactly feel warm fuzzies about molson and was willing to vote for molson in the hopes that it might save himself.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:16 PM   #1419
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Originally Posted by st.cronin
If anybody has any thoughts or concerns about playing this weekend please let me know. I can run a normal schedule, if everybody thinks they can play.

I can most definitely play
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:17 PM   #1420
Swaggs
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Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo
right. but IF i was a vet and a mason (neither of which I am) I would ensure that I didn't vote with the other masons EVERY TIME in order to keep myself camoflauged, and would hope that my other masons would do the same.

I don't disagree with you on that, but you are the one who brought up the masons' voting records. I am talking about SnDvls' game of "if you were a mason..." There aren't that many of us left and, if he is a wolf he can target the remaining 8-9 of us by matching our picks.

Hey, it may have just been a curious hypothetical by him, but he is the only living player that voted for molson in the last vote, which was a perfect opportunity for a wolf to use a throwaway vote AND he does this right afterward in, to me, an apparent attempt to identify the masons. Without much better to go on, he looks like a prime target to me and I believe he is a wolf that used a throwaway vote, not realizing that Dracula would kill the other person that voted with him and make him look all alone there.

I still think molson is a better vote for today, as I feel like he is Dracula. He probably felt threatened by being the second place-vote getter and decided to use his power before he died, so he killed someone that voted for him.

Unless someone presents some good evidence or does some good prosecutorial work, I am voting molson today and SnDvls tomorrow, if I am alive.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:17 PM   #1421
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I can most definitely play a normal schedule.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:17 PM   #1422
DaddyTorgo
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i'd support votes on farrah, grey or molson at this point, hoping we can finally hit a damm baddie
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:18 PM   #1423
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wow. nice math. i wonder if there's a way we could get this...say by effectively revealing the masons through some sort of action it'd be hard for baddies to mess up...a timed thing or something. but that would prolly be bad form hmmm?

Swaggs just voted for me for suggesting the same thing
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:19 PM   #1424
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ok i just reread molson trying to get the masons to out themselves i a way.

that without a doubt would be a dumb thing to do, and does raise his profile in my eye, but i cant believe if he was a wolf he would be dumb enough to do that.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:19 PM   #1425
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49
Can't criticise a guy for trying to save his life. He didn't exactly feel warm fuzzies about molson and was willing to vote for molson in the hopes that it might save himself.

Is the case against molson based only on Blade again? Or is there something more to it? I thought there was, but it's not ringing a bell yet.

If molson is a target simply because Blade said so when he was trying to save himself, isn't the case against molson as flimsy and weak as the one against me?

Personally, I'm sorta interested in Swaggs' theory on Sndvls. It's not strong either, but it's food for thought. I'm far from deciding who to vote for, though.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:21 PM   #1426
DaddyTorgo
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Originally Posted by Swaggs
I don't disagree with you on that, but you are the one who brought up the masons' voting records. I am talking about SnDvls' game of "if you were a mason..." There aren't that many of us left and, if he is a wolf he can target the remaining 8-9 of us by matching our picks.

Hey, it may have just been a curious hypothetical by him, but he is the only living player that voted for molson in the last vote, which was a perfect opportunity for a wolf to use a throwaway vote AND he does this right afterward in, to me, an apparent attempt to identify the masons. Without much better to go on, he looks like a prime target to me and I believe he is a wolf that used a throwaway vote, not realizing that Dracula would kill the other person that voted with him and make him look all alone there.

I still think molson is a better vote for today, as I feel like he is Dracula. He probably felt threatened by being the second place-vote getter and decided to use his power before he died, so he killed someone that voted for him.

Unless someone presents some good evidence or does some good prosecutorial work, I am voting molson today and SnDvls tomorrow, if I am alive.

damm swaggs, that's some good thinking you got going on there
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:23 PM   #1427
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ok i just reread molson trying to get the masons to out themselves i a way.

that without a doubt would be a dumb thing to do, and does raise his profile in my eye, but i cant believe if he was a wolf he would be dumb enough to do that.

but Daddytorgo suggesting its a good idea does sound like a newbie wolf trying to get info
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:23 PM   #1428
DaddyTorgo
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Originally Posted by molson
Swaggs just voted for me for suggesting the same thing

hey i'm just pondering, not suggesting. plus, i'm a villager, and we're not sure about you molson.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:23 PM   #1429
Barkeep49
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Originally Posted by Chief Rum
Is the case against molson based only on Blade again? Or is there something more to it? I thought there was, but it's not ringing a bell yet.

If molson is a target simply because Blade said so when he was trying to save himself, isn't the case against molson as flimsy and weak as the one against me?

Personally, I'm sorta interested in Swaggs' theory on Sndvls. It's not strong either, but it's food for thought. I'm far from deciding who to vote for, though.
Well he's wrung suspicious bells from me for a while. And several other now confirmed good guys felt strongly about him being bad as well. I don't think we have any proof, though. Perhaps I will do a post recap tomorrow if I am bored at work.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:24 PM   #1430
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and it was barkeep's math that suggested it to me
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:26 PM   #1431
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plus there's not a way for the mason's to reveal themselves as (i assume) that'd be against the rules of the game, whether it was overt or just like...de facto revealing themselves. i'm just saying, going by the math that would raise our chances of getting a hit, although not THAT significantly...1/12 really isn't that huge of a jump.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:26 PM   #1432
Chief Rum
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Well he's wrung suspicious bells from me for a while. And several other now confirmed good guys felt strongly about him being bad as well. I don't think we have any proof, though. Perhaps I will do a post recap tomorrow if I am bored at work.

Since I work again in the day time, I may have to try to do this on my own, and piece it together. I may not be able to get home in time to read your posts on it.

Heh, heh, tough to do with 30 pages to go through.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:26 PM   #1433
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I cannot play this weekend and will not be able to play past 5pm tomorrow. So I will miss the tomorrows vote.

I would like to suggest we run the current day until either 8:30pm on Sunday or Monday. With so few people left, it makes sense to keep everyone in the game.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:28 PM   #1434
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I cannot play this weekend and will not be able to play past 5pm tomorrow. So I will miss the tomorrows vote.

I would like to suggest we run the current day until either 8:30pm on Sunday or Monday. With so few people left, it makes sense to keep everyone in the game.

i like this idea. gives us more time to find the baddies
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:29 PM   #1435
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Also, adding to the SnDvls suspicion is this (asked in response to me accusing him of wanting the masons to out themselves):

@ 10:39 in post 1372
Quote:
Originally Posted by SnDvls
I never suggested this...please find a quote for me.

@ 10:56 in post 1388
Quote:
Originally Posted by SnDvls
swaggs please answer my question from post #1372

So... I answer him @ 11:02 in post 1396
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swaggs
SnDvls, I glossed over this the first time around because I didn't want to draw attention to it, but I don't want to look guilty, so here goes:

Your little game of "if you were a mason...", to me, is a very blatent attempt to try to out the masons by getting them to participate and then grouping them together to see whose choices match up. If you are a wolf, as I suspect you are, you would already know your fellow wolves and would be able to match anyone else that participated in it up, as they would obviously not choose other masons.

and... *POOF* he is gone from the thread. I imagine he will return at some point with a well thought out response...after he talks to his wolf buddies.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:32 PM   #1436
bulletsponge
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Originally Posted by Grammaticus
I cannot play this weekend and will not be able to play past 5pm tomorrow. So I will miss the tomorrows vote.

I would like to suggest we run the current day until either 8:30pm on Sunday or Monday. With so few people left, it makes sense to keep everyone in the game.

only if all the first timers start talking more. im getting the feeling that theres more than 1 noobie wolf out there, and all the vets are whacking each other off because thats whats theyre used to, and avoiding even thinking of the new fish
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:33 PM   #1437
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The whole SnDvls thing is really bothering me. Right now I feel SnDvls is the best choice. Being the only one left on the Molson vote and asking a bunch of what would you do if you were a Mason questions is more than anything else right now.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:34 PM   #1438
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only if all the first timers start talking more. im getting the feeling that theres more than 1 noobie wolf out there, and all the vets are whacking each other off because thats whats theyre used to, and avoiding even thinking of the new fish

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Old 08-17-2006, 10:37 PM   #1439
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Originally Posted by bulletsponge
only if all the first timers start talking more. im getting the feeling that theres more than 1 noobie wolf out there, and all the vets are whacking each other off because thats whats theyre used to, and avoiding even thinking of the new fish
I think many of the newer players, such as Torgo, are starting to step up to the plate. Dodger made a well informed psot as well, for instance. But I agree there is strong reason to believe, statistically speaking, that there is a newbie wolf.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:37 PM   #1440
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lol woops. sometimes i do feel the vets do that too
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:38 PM   #1441
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Seems like this would have been much funnier in Anxiety's game.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:39 PM   #1442
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only if all the first timers start talking more. im getting the feeling that theres more than 1 noobie wolf out there, and all the vets are whacking each other off because thats whats theyre used to, and avoiding even thinking of the new fish



its my "circlejerk of trust" theory
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:39 PM   #1443
DaddyTorgo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49
I think many of the newer players, such as Torgo, are starting to step up to the plate. Dodger made a well informed psot as well, for instance. But I agree there is strong reason to believe, statistically speaking, that there is a newbie wolf.

i'm starting to step up to the plate? WOOT! And here I thought I was still being fairly useless. *shrug* But I guess the vets aren't doing great in this game either.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:45 PM   #1444
molson
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Join Date: Oct 2002
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Vote Farrah

-Because I believe contrary to post 1364, Farrah can read.
-Odds are that there's at least one newbie wolf, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's two. Farrah has seemed careful in this game, despite signing up for this game on a lark. This is how a newbie wolf would play. Seriously, if I were a wolf, wouldn't I be driving the other wolves out of their minds at this point? Farah might think (incorrectly), that she'd screw something up if she says too much. It's not JUST the relative silence (I don't think she'd say much as a villager either), it's the restraint in not "mixing it up", even on a limited basis.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:47 PM   #1445
Swaggs
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Here is a question for everyone.

I know that I may be the only one that believes this, but assume:

1. molson is Dracula
2. SnDvls is a wolf

Who does it make more sense to kill first?

Dracula's powers are all used up and he could potentially be a thorn in the wolves side, since he does not know their identities. Knocking out a wolf would seriously damage the effectiveness of their voting block.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:49 PM   #1446
bulletsponge
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Quote:
Originally Posted by molson
Vote Farrah

-Because I believe contrary to post 1364, Farrah can read.
-Odds are that there's at least one newbie wolf, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's two. Farrah has seemed careful in this game, despite signing up for this game on a lark. This is how a newbie wolf would play. Seriously, if I were a wolf, wouldn't I be driving the other wolves out of their minds at this point? Farah might think (incorrectly), that she'd screw something up if she says too much. It's not JUST the relative silence (I don't think she'd say much as a villager either), it's the restraint in not "mixing it up", even on a limited basis.


im glad im not the only one suspicious of Farrah.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:49 PM   #1447
SnDvls
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swaggs
Also, adding to the SnDvls suspicion is this (asked in response to me accusing him of wanting the masons to out themselves):

@ 10:39 in post 1372


@ 10:56 in post 1388


So... I answer him @ 11:02 in post 1396


and... *POOF* he is gone from the thread. I imagine he will return at some point with a well thought out response...after he talks to his wolf buddies.


funny how real life is a reason for you and no one else

i'm not a bad guy

my reasons for the pairings was to see where other's trust was
molson and you are at the bottom

I see how you can manulipate it though just like the whole blade set up

I voted molson first yesterday before anyone else
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:50 PM   #1448
bulletsponge
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: TX
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swaggs
Here is a question for everyone.

I know that I may be the only one that believes this, but assume:

1. molson is Dracula
2. SnDvls is a wolf

Who does it make more sense to kill first?

Dracula's powers are all used up and he could potentially be a thorn in the wolves side, since he does not know their identities. Knocking out a wolf would seriously damage the effectiveness of their voting block.


at this point in the game a wolf kill will be bigger. not that im saying SnDvls is a bad guy
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:51 PM   #1449
Swaggs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by molson
Vote Farrah

-Because I believe contrary to post 1364, Farrah can read.
-Odds are that there's at least one newbie wolf, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's two. Farrah has seemed careful in this game, despite signing up for this game on a lark. This is how a newbie wolf would play. Seriously, if I were a wolf, wouldn't I be driving the other wolves out of their minds at this point? Farah might think (incorrectly), that she'd screw something up if she says too much. It's not JUST the relative silence (I don't think she'd say much as a villager either), it's the restraint in not "mixing it up", even on a limited basis.

Question for you... why not vote for SnDvls here? He voted for you today and there is, at the very least, a tiny bit of evidence that he could be a werewolf. I understand going on gut at times, but am just curious here.
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Old 08-17-2006, 10:54 PM   #1450
Barkeep49
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Join Date: Jan 2001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swaggs
Question for you... why not vote for SnDvls here? He voted for you today and there is, at the very least, a tiny bit of evidence that he could be a werewolf. I understand going on gut at times, but am just curious here.
I can think of two. One noble, one not.
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