WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[mauchow]

Oh, man we are WAY back.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Wait...what? How does this mean that I could only be the cunning wolf? I am not sure why the wolves would take out a player that there is some question about. Taking out either me or bholly was a mistake. The only thing I can figure is that they are trying to frame me as the cunning wolf. I hope the village does not fall for that trap. If so, things are going to look pretty grim.

I have been on ntn for the last couple of days. Does that mean anything I am not sure. I have tried to stress that ntn was the safe lynch. But I am not sure we can go down that road tomorrow.

I think he means that the only wolf you could be is the cunning (i.e. bhlloy was not lying about the fact that you were scanned).

[Danny]

He also put a key second vote on me and was basically absent from any meaningful discussion. He also seemed to be setting me up for todays lynch yesterday before the results were revealed as if he know what the results would be. I really wish I would have looked at him more today earlier.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Wait...what? How does this mean that I could only be the cunning wolf? I am not sure why the wolves would take out a player that there is some question about. Taking out either me or bholly was a mistake. The only thing I can figure is that they are trying to frame me as the cunning wolf. I hope the village does not fall for that trap. If so, things are going to look pretty grim.

I have been on ntn for the last couple of days. Does that mean anything I am not sure. I have tried to stress that ntn was the safe lynch. But I am not sure we can go down that road tomorrow.

No, you misunderstand. He's saying that the only way you could be a wolf is if you are the cunning, not that the only thing you could be is the cunning wolf (as opposed to being a villager). Reason is because bhlloy said you were scanned as a villager by DV.

Your answer though is weird.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Wait...what? How does this mean that I could only be the cunning wolf? I am not sure why the wolves would take out a player that there is some question about. Taking out either me or bholly was a mistake. The only thing I can figure is that they are trying to frame me as the cunning wolf. I hope the village does not fall for that trap. If so, things are going to look pretty grim.

I have been on ntn for the last couple of days. Does that mean anything I am not sure. I have tried to stress that ntn was the safe lynch. But I am not sure we can go down that road tomorrow.

You're misreading it. I'm not saying you have to be the cunning wolf. I am saying you could only be the cunning wolf, meaning it's impossible you are one of the two other wolves. As Hoops said, it means lynching you is a bad percentage play and there is no way you should be getting votes.

[Danny]

Hoops, what page was the day 1 vote log you posted? I want to take a look at it again.

[GoldenEagle]

Ha. Ok. Apologies for the misunderstanding.

[JAG]

Bah. I need to take a fresh look at things for tomorrow, but sorry Danny. Feel free to toss some "I told you so's" my way since I've been on your case since yesterday.

[EagleFan]

When you are allowed to begin you will start in Dubai and travel to Jamaica. From there...

You have a clue to the Roadblock.
Who likes it spicy? Requires Eating.


You have a clue to the Detour.

Sink it: Sink 5 putts from set different distances. Requires physical and mental.
- Players alternate taking a shot.
- Continue from the same distance until making a putt then move to the next distance.
- If more than one team is at the same distance they must alternate between teams.

Scan It: Parasail along the shore and spot the next clue. Requires Mental.
- Both players must take at least one turn parasailing along the coast.
- Once they spot the location of the next clue and they have both gone up one time they may continue.

Pit Stop - Dunn's River Falls

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

Hoops, what page was the day 1 vote log you posted? I want to take a look at it again.

Not sure, but I have it in Notepad so here it is again.


164 Autumn votes JAG 1-0
169 PF votes Mauboy 1-1 JAG/Mau
170 Lathum votes Rum 1-1-1 JAG/Mau/Rum
172 Mau votes Rum 2-1-1 Rum over JAG/Mau
175 Danny votes JAG 2-2-1 Rum/JAG over Mau
178 JAG votes Autumn 2-2-1-1 Rum/JAG over Mau/Autumn
181 bhl votes Mau 2-2-2-1 Rum/JAG/Mau over Autumn
* 182 MartinD (wolf) post about vote concentration early, usually more spread out *
185 MartinD votes Mau 3-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
186 Rum votes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
187 mck votes Mau 5-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
189 Rum unvotes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
193 Danny unvotes JAG, votes NTN 4-2-1-1-1 Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG/NTN
194 Jackal votes NTN 4-2-2-1-1 Mau over Rum/NTN over Autumn/JAG
200 Hoops votes NTN 4-3-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
205 Zinto votes Chief 4-3-3-1-1 Mau over NTN/Rum over Autumn/JAG


Note #1 - MartinD is almost certainly not popular with his wolf teammates after sending the "wolf" PM to Saldana and putting a wolf out in front of votes.

Note #2 -Mau votes for Chief early (first to two votes)

Note #3 - Early votes on Mau = PF, bhl, Rum, mck (Rum pulls his fairly quickly)

Note #4 - Danny offers NTN as a new candidate, is followed by two villagers (Jackal + me, although I'm not revealed as one yet)

Note #5 - Zinto puts the vote on Chief instead of Mau or NTN, who are the two leaders. Says in #205 he wants 3 candidates.

206 NTN votes Chief 4-4-3-1-1 Mau/Rum over NTN over Autumn/JAG
212 Pass votes NTN 4-4-4-1-1 Mau/Rum/NTN over Autumn/JAG
213 Chief votes NTN 5-4-4-1-1 NTN over Mau/Rum over Autumn/JAG
219 Crimson votes Mau 5-5-4-1-1 NTN/Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG
222 NTN unvotes Chief, votes Mau 6-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG

Note #6 - this looks good for NTN, in my mind. If he was a wolf with Mau then he would likely have held his vote in the 5-5-4 setup with hopes to get some movement on Chief. But instead he pushes Mau into lead and CR 3 back. Seems more villager survival instinct than conceding wolf in my mind, barring crazy 3 wolf run-off scenario (have to almost entirely discount getting this lucky).

224 - DV votes Mau. 7-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
226 - Cougar votes Mau 8-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
234 - Mau unvotes Chief, votes NTN 8-6-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
235 - GE votes NTN, 8-7-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
237 - Saldana votes NTN, 8-8-2-1-1 Mau/NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG


Note #7 - good thing Saldana + GE have some checks in the good book (Sal gave us wolf, GE seer scanned, based on 2nd hand info) with these votes

240 - Lathum unvotes Rum, votes NTN 9-8-1-1-1 NTN over Mau over Autumn/JAG/Rum
242 - Chief unvotes NTN, votes Mau 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/JAG/Rum

Note #8 - big swing vote here by Chief, assuming that NTN = villager. About 2 hours and 15 minutes to deadline here.

* 251 - Mauboy's "if only I could see the future" post with 1 hour 40 minutes until lynch deadline *
258 - Autumn unvotes JAG, votes Mau 10-8-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum
* 262 - I ask if people missed post #251, why no one is reacting to this. 1 hour 10 minutes until lynch deadline *
264 - NTN unvotes Mau, votes JAG 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG
277 - Danny unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-7-1-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG/Crimson
279 - Mau unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-6-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/JAG
280 - Rum unvotes Mau, votes JAG 8-6-2-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson/JAG over Autumn/Rum
290 - Autumn unvotes Mau 7-6-2-2-1-1- Mau over NTN over Crimson/JAG over Autumn/Rum
291 - Autumn votes JAG 7-6-3-2-1-1- Mau over NTN over JAG over Crimson over Autumn/Rum
301 - Saldana unvotes NTN, votes MartinD 7-5-3-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over JAG over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/MartinD
* 301 is the post where Saldana reveals that MartinD forwarded his PM with info on being a wolf. 25 minutes before deadline. *
304 - Danny changes vote to MartinD
305 - Autumn changes vote to MartinD
315 - mck changes vote to MartinD
318 - PF changes vote to MartinD
322 - DV changes vote to MartinD
327 - Cougar changes vote to MartinD
330 - Mau changes vote to MartinD
337 - NTN changes vote to MartinD
340 - Lathum changes vote to MartinD

[CrimsonFox]

Post 1249, Page 25

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Here are my impressions on people, which are almost entirely shaped by the Day 1 vote. It is important to note that if NTN was a wolf that would dramatically change the (relative) trust dynamics.

I would like to take some time to dig through yesterday's posts, but I'm out of time for right now. Don't know how much I'll be on between now and deadline, other than to drop a vote before heading out for the day.

1. Autumn - avoided Mau + NTN on D1
3. Passacaglia - non-factor on D1 (NTN vote creating 3 way tie)
4. mckerney - early vote on Mau
5. PackerFanatic - first vote on Mau, would wolves had had 2 of 3 first votes on him?
8. JAG
10. ntndeacon - forced into defensive D1
11. bhlloy - purportedly scanned by DV, early vote on Mau
12. cougarfreak - key vote on Mau
15. Danny - introduced NTN as candidate, don't think that NTN/Danny are likely to be wolves together
16. Chief Rum - Mau voted for him early D1, somewhat erratic D1 voting (on/off candidates)
17. hoopsguy - I know I'm a villager
19. GoldenEagle - purportedly scanned by DV

[GoldenEagle]

I think mckerney's vote is interesting as well. He placed the critical fourth vote on Danny, breaking a tie at the moment. No one has really mentioned him as a wolf at this point. I am not sure if he has even got any votes. I have never played in a game with him before, so I am not exactly sure of his style.

But I think based on this vote alone, we should bring him into the discussion.

[hoopsguy]

CF, one thing in the one you posted ... I forgot to double back and put in thoughts on JAG. But his D1 stuff wasn't great. Early vote on Autumn, never changed until Saldana thing came out if I'm reading that post history correctly.

I let myself be steered a bit by him because I enjoy playing with him so much when he is a villager. We almost always seem to be on the same wavelength in attacking the data, even if it is in a slightly different order. I'm guilty of the same with Chief Rum, probably moreso this time around because of being teammates this game and the success we are having in the race portion of the game.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I think mckerney's vote is interesting as well. He placed the critical fourth vote on Danny, breaking a tie at the moment. No one has really mentioned him as a wolf at this point. I am not sure if he has even got any votes. I have never played in a game with him before, so I am not exactly sure of his style.

But I think based on this vote alone, we should bring him into the discussion.

For that vote to have meaning, you have to be making the assumption that either Pass or I are a wolf. Otherwise, the wolves didn't give a damn which person took the votes in what order. Other than trying to avoid too much attention when casting the votes.

[Danny]

Looking at the first 7 or so votes from day 1, I have to say JAG looks really bad as long as Autumn is a villager. With the votes 1-1-1, Mau voted CR over JAG. JAG voted Autumn when it was 2-1-1. At the times those with votes were Jag, Mau and CR. Maybe he votes CR if he's a wolf there, but maybe not if those with votes is 2/3 wolves. In that situation I could see a wolf trying to bring in another villager.

I thing I screwed up today by not looking more at that voting log and overlooking JAG. Especially when his posts yesterday focusing on me, seemed like he knew what the result of the lynch was going to be.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Danny

Based on what I saw, I'd actually say there's a decent chance none of the three vote getters were wolves. I have really avoided him so far, but I want to take a closer look at JAG. On day 1, he had two early votes from Autumn and I (now a confirmed villager) and no one else ever followed up on that and instead votes went toward CR and NTN to run against Mau.

That's fair, to be frank I deserve it for my part in this lynch.

Looking at the D1 stuff, here is where the block of voting was between me getting 2 and dropping back to 1:

175 Danny votes JAG 2-2-1 Rum/JAG over Mau
178 JAG votes Autumn 2-2-1-1 Rum/JAG over Mau/Autumn
181 bhl votes Mau 2-2-2-1 Rum/JAG/Mau over Autumn
* 182 MartinD (wolf) post about vote concentration early, usually more spread out *
185 MartinD votes Mau 3-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
186 Rum votes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
187 mck votes Mau 5-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
189 Rum unvotes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
193 Danny unvotes JAG, votes NTN 4-2-1-1-1 Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG/NTN

The 185-186-187 votes were basically all at the same time, so after your second vote on me, there were really only bhlloy and the 3 votes at the same time, before you and CR came off mau and I. At that point there were two people with multiple votes and a couple people jumped on your vote on ntn which left three people with multiple votes and Autumn and I with 1 each. Since you as a confirmed villager are the one that came off me, I don't think it looks as bad as you may have originally thought without looking at it.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

For that vote to have meaning, you have to be making the assumption that either Pass or I are a wolf. Otherwise, the wolves didn't give a damn which person took the votes in what order. Other than trying to avoid too much attention when casting the votes.

At this point, based on the math, that is a decent assumption. Mckerney did vote for mau on day 1. I believe he did this right before mau revealed as the fake seer. I am working under the assumption that the wolves knew mau was in trouble and it gave them spot to hide votes right before the fake reveal.

We really put the wolves up against in day 1. There has to be something helpful in there. We just need to dig it out.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

CF, one thing in the one you posted ... I forgot to double back and put in thoughts on JAG. But his D1 stuff wasn't great. Early vote on Autumn, never changed until Saldana thing came out if I'm reading that post history correctly.

I let myself be steered a bit by him because I enjoy playing with him so much when he is a villager. We almost always seem to be on the same wavelength in attacking the data, even if it is in a slightly different order. I'm guilty of the same with Chief Rum, probably moreso this time around because of being teammates this game and the success we are having in the race portion of the game.

Regarding JAG, the few times I've played with him, he's very loud and talkative. Quiet now. Hardly remembered he was still playing. He's gone all ntn on us.

[The Jackal]

1) I get screwed by coincidence.
2) Lathum gets screwed by hidden mechanics.
3) Our team gets screwed by multiple straight days of having aggression used against us.

Whoo.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by JAG

"* 182 MartinD (wolf) post about vote concentration early, usually more spread out *"

At the time the vote was 2-2-2-1 me/Chief/mau/Autumn. Shortly after his comment he pushed mau to 3 votes (trying to look good on a potential lynch target? Looking to make a late move to save him?) If we take his comment seriously that he was concerned about another candidate that had a vote on them at the time and wanted a new candidate, then I would look at Chief and Autumn, probably leaning more towards Autumn because mau put a second vote on Chief which seems a weird wolf move to make at that time. The only wolfy vibe this game I've had about Autumn is when he was trying to make sense of the D1 voting this morning and left me really confused with what he was saying (I can give him a break for not having caffeine in his system, or maybe it was my own lack). Other than that, he seems like someone who's been trying to figure things out. So I'm not 100% sure what to think just yet.

So after that there was a four vote run on mau, though really the three by Chief, mckerny, and MartinD were close together (the other one was over an hour beforehand). After the run on mau, Danny introduces ntn as a candidate. I find that worth some suspicion after the comment from Martin. Another couple hoops' thoughts here:

"222 NTN unvotes Chief, votes Mau 6-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG

Note #6 - this looks good for NTN, in my mind. If he was a wolf with Mau then he would likely have held his vote in the 5-5-4 setup with hopes to get some movement on Chief. But instead he pushes Mau into lead and CR 3 back. Seems more villager survival instinct than conceding wolf in my mind, barring crazy 3 wolf run-off scenario (have to almost entirely discount getting this lucky)."

Hard to argue with that.

"242 - Chief unvotes NTN, votes Mau 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/JAG/Rum

Note #8 - big swing vote here by Chief, assuming that NTN = villager. About 2 hours and 15 minutes to deadline here."

Also seems reasonable.

"258 - Autumn unvotes JAG, votes Mau 10-8-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum
* 262 - I ask if people missed post #251, why no one is reacting to this. 1 hour 10 minutes until lynch deadline *
264 - NTN unvotes Mau, votes JAG 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG
277 - Danny unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-7-1-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG/Crimson
279 - Mau unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-6-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/JAG"

In my opinion, this sequence again looks suspicious for Danny. Assuming he didn't want to vote for the 'seer', with three other people out there with one vote to vote for (also assuming he wouldn't go with ntn because he wanted a second candidate), he picks another candidate that ends up being a wolf target (although I didn't look at the timing of this and CF's comments that may have led them to believe he was a seer, though mau was quick to jump on the vote after it happened) as they presumably hunted for the real seer.

So anyway, here we are 30 minutes from deadline, so this isn't really helpful for the vote today. How was Danny not a serious candidate for today again?

This is the post I am referring to. I got the impression he was setting me up for being a prime lynch candidate today. And this was posted 30 minutes before deadline when I was not a candidate at all and we had no idea whether Zinto was going to turn up wolf or not (I had a key vote on him). It was as if he knew Zinto would turn up villager and that I would be a good person to focus on for today.

In fairness to him though, his next post stated this was the only chance he had to post his thoughts.

[The Jackal]

I pointed out on day 2 that JAG looked suspicious if mau was a wolf because of what happened on day one. But I think everyone ignored me because almost everyone thought I was a wolf at the time.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I pointed out on day 2 that JAG looked suspicious if mau was a wolf because of what happened on day one. But I think everyone ignored me because almost everyone thought I was a wolf at the time.

Yeah I remember that now. JAG has been under the radar big time. Last night I was planning on looking at him for today, but again, I hardly noticed him and focused on other people.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Danny

Looking at the first 7 or so votes from day 1, I have to say JAG looks really bad as long as Autumn is a villager. With the votes 1-1-1, Mau voted CR over JAG. JAG voted Autumn when it was 2-1-1. At the times those with votes were Jag, Mau and CR. Maybe he votes CR if he's a wolf there, but maybe not if those with votes is 2/3 wolves. In that situation I could see a wolf trying to bring in another villager.

I thing I screwed up today by not looking more at that voting log and overlooking JAG. Especially when his posts yesterday focusing on me, seemed like he knew what the result of the lynch was going to be.

Well, I'll just say this about it. The main problem is it took me so long into the day to get to the analysis. I wanted to make my analysis based on what I was seeing with the data without influence of the voting at the time. I thought it pointed to you as the most likely candidate as a wolf. After that, I had to deal with the situation that was on-hand for the voting, as a vote for you would've been a complete waste. Looking at what I saw, I thought CR and ntn were low on the list of looking wolfy, so that left Zinto for me to go with.

[The Jackal]

It would make sense for JAG being the cunning or brutal, which are presumably both left, or at least one of them, since mau was just a regular wolf when the run was started on him away from JAG/CR/NTN, but I think NTN is just as good a person to look at. I'd have to go back and look and see who led the charges on mau now that we know more about people's allegiances.

[hoopsguy]

OK, back to the grind tomorrow. Need to get some sleep here tonight ... I'm clearly getting old calling it a night this early, but I'm tired.

[Danny]

Jackal, what worries me is that after I put up ntn on day 1, Mau was strong in jumping on that train. Would he do that as a wolf knowing he was going to be fake revealing? He had no idea Martin was going to make the mistake he did and if that didnt happen, when he fake revealed, the lynch would have swung to ntn.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Regarding JAG, the few times I've played with him, he's very loud and talkative. Quiet now. Hardly remembered he was still playing. He's gone all ntn on us.

I can't argue with that either, I've definitely contributed less than I would've liked to this point. I can only say that I've been a lot more busy out of the game than I was during the Vegas game as well as spending time trying to figure out a way to get to the bloody Falkland Islands (mckerney can relay my PM regarding that).

Anyway, I'm off for now.

[The Jackal]

Worries you meaning you're more trusting of NTN because of that?

[The Jackal]

I'm off to watch some tv and go to sleep, I'll try and check back in tomorrow to provide some outsider type insights. Glad to see that when I check in there's 1+ pages for me to catch up on, even if I'm bitter about the way the game's going!

[Danny]

Right now, I think the three people have the strongest evidence against them being a wolf are GoldenEagle, Chief Rum and NTN. Yes, it possible that on day 1 the wolves really went after eachother in hopes of setting themselves up for the future, but I think this had to put those two above the others in the game, for now.

[The Jackal]

Unless GE is the cunning I think he's in pretty good standing. He came out a couple of times and said he didn't think I was a wolf which might be part of the reason why DV scanned him (since DV said multiple times he was pretty sure that I was a wolf). Though if he was a wolf, he'd know definitively that I wasn't and be able to brush that aside. But he looks solid.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

Jackal, what worries me is that after I put up ntn on day 1, Mau was strong in jumping on that train. Would he do that as a wolf knowing he was going to be fake revealing? He had no idea Martin was going to make the mistake he did and if that didnt happen, when he fake revealed, the lynch would have swung to ntn.

mau this game has been all loose cannon stuff. THere's been no plan of anything, he just says stuff, trying things he saw in the one other game he played. Doing the seer thing I do not believe was in tandem with the other wolves. Regarding the other wolves, I would think they more would have tried to distance themselves from him because of what he said/did.

However, would they actively put him up on the block if what he was saying/doing made them nervous? I can only see a pro making that kind of move. ANd even then I'm not sure.

[The Jackal]

FWIW CF, Mau isn't a rookie, he just hasn't played in a while. He played in a few games a couple years back.

[Danny]

The 7 players left are the following.

Hoops
Mckerney
Autumn
JAG
Packfanatic
CougarFreak
Passacaglia

Based on his reactions earlier, I don't have a bad read on Cougar. I also think the night kill of bh adds some trust to the other two Pass voters. I think Cougar is a poor vote right now.

I'd wager there were two wolves on me and one on Hoops today. Though it is possible Pass and Packer are both wolves who wanted to help make sure Hoops was a second candidate and not Pass.

I've also noticed Packer has been playing very tight lately which he tends to do as a wolf.

[Danny]

Actually, I take that back, Packer put the first vote on Mau. He's not the type to make that move as a wolf.

[Danny]

Right now the only three players without some evidence supporting them not being a wolf are JAG, Pass and Hoops. I think those are good choices to look for a wolf, though I would vote JAG if I had a vote.

[EagleFan]

As everyone sits around drinking you begin to sing...

Happy Birthday to you!
Happy Birthday to you!
Happy Birthday dear hoopsguy!
Happy Birthday to you!

[Autumn]

I haven't even had a chance to read this whole last page, just finished a project and have to get to bed. But I want to place a vote and get a fire under somebody. This is really just a placeholder, i hope to spend enough time in the morning to decide where to vote. But Mckerney is flying way under my radar, and I think we need to get more out of him if we're going to have anything to base votes on. I don't know at all if my analysis tomorrow will end up with me on him, but I don't want to just end up voting vocal players 'cause there's more to go on.

VOTE MCKERNEY

[EagleFan]

As of post 1438:

mckerney 1 - Autumn (1438)

[CrimsonFox]

Happy Birthday, Hot Hoops!

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Danny

Jackal, what worries me is that after I put up ntn on day 1, Mau was strong in jumping on that train. Would he do that as a wolf knowing he was going to be fake revealing? He had no idea Martin was going to make the mistake he did and if that didnt happen, when he fake revealed, the lynch would have swung to ntn.

And at the time I was for it too, which is why I went off mau. I had assumed that there was no way I was going to be saved by then even if a few did follow me on to JAG. at the time it was better me than a possible seer.

[ntndeacon]

Pass sorry I was unclear. yes you were the one I had mentioned to my partner as doing some thought provoking things.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, back to the grind tomorrow. Need to get some sleep here tonight ... I'm clearly getting old calling it a night this early, but I'm tired.

I'm pretty sure I was already in bed when you posted this.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Danny

Right now, I think the three people have the strongest evidence against them being a wolf are GoldenEagle, Chief Rum and NTN. Yes, it possible that on day 1 the wolves really went after eachother in hopes of setting themselves up for the future, but I think this had to put those two above the others in the game, for now.

Danny, now that I know you're good, can we talk about Chief? Is his goodness in your mind just based on the fact that he voted mau around the same time as Martin did (the first time he voted, that is), and the wolves wouldn't put two votes on the same wolf?

[JAG]

Alright, I have some time before work and then my time the rest of the day will be on and off. I understand I'll be under the microscope today, so I'm going to put out all my thoughts on the people left for the sake of transparency so people know where I stand on things. I am going to assume there are three wolves left worst-case scenario and so we're at 7-3, which means we can only afford one more bad lynch barring some unforeseen mechanic. Based on where I have people trusted (CR+ntn much higher than hoops+Pass), I am going to assume we had three villagers on the block D4 but possibly not D5. So taking a look at those left, most to least trusted:

CR: Odd voting on D1, bad vote on Danny D5 (I know, those in glass houses...), but his reasoning on ntn yesterday was sound and mau put vote #2 on him D1. That just seems way out there for a wolf on wolf move.

ntn: D1 his vote switch from CR (who I feel pretty sure about as good) to mau looks very good, and had a D5 vote on Pass. He's been quiet but what else is new? I can't see why I'd vote for him.

PF: Vote #1 on mau D1, again that seems pretty out there for a wolf on wolf move, had a vote on hoops D5. Otherwise has been quiet, but little reason to suspect him.

cougarfreak: Had a big vote on mau D1 and voted for Pass D5. Like PF, he's been pretty quiet and at this point I don't see myself looking here.

GE: His voting has been terrible (I don't like his crusade against ntn, the votes against ntn D1, D4, and D5 seem poorly reasoned, and the D5 switch to Danny looks bad also). However since we have confirmation he's scanned good, I don't see this as a good percentage play.

mckerney: Had a reasonably good vote on mau D1 though it looks better because of the number of people that jumped on him at the same time. The D5 vote on Danny brings him down as well as being way under the radar. He's been a good partner though.

hoops: His voting record is poor (ntn D1, known villagers D4+D5). On the other hand, he and CR have had, IMO, the most accurate breakdown of what's been going on thus far. I've never played with hoops as wolf and I know he's a good one, so the fact he isn't lower is mostly based on vibe and that we're mostly seeing things the same way.

Pass: The D1 vote isn't too hot, the D5 vote doesn't seem so bad though. His stuff with Chief yesterday was annoying and distracting, but also came across as Pass being Pass so I tried to ignore it. No great trust for him at the moment, I will say it seems unlikely both he and hoops would be wolves with Pass' willingness to jump on hoops yesterday.

Autumn: Assuming I'm not voting in self-defense, this is where I'm leaning for my vote today. His D1 will obviously look worse to me than anyone else, but I also don't like the switch to mau after he basically came out as 'seer', I don't understand it. I don't like that he's been trying to make a case for CR as wolf because of him taking back the vote on mau and leaving out the best evidence for CR being cleared in mau putting vote #2 on Chief. I haven't poured over his previous posts but I think he was making a case for ntn which I don't think is realistic. Now knowing that Danny is a villager, I don't like how he jumped on my idea of saying he thought Danny was most suspicious for most of the day D4 then gave a reason why he thought Danny was ok, and then immediately voted Danny D5. Honestly, the best thing I can say about Autumn thus far is that he didn't come out and vote me right away today when as a wolf, it would've seemed like the obvious set-up after the past couple days.

So that's where I stand with things. I think it's most likely we'll find 2 if not 3 wolves on the bottom four people I listed.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Danny, now that I know you're good, can we talk about Chief? Is his goodness in your mind just based on the fact that he voted mau around the same time as Martin did (the first time he voted, that is), and the wolves wouldn't put two votes on the same wolf?

And Mau voted him as well early on day 1, so wolves voting each other if he's a wolf. Not unheard of, but not the most likely either.

[hoopsguy]

General question for the group - is there any reason at all that people should be more concerned about the "race" than the game of "werewolf". If not, I would be interested in having some discussion around actions so far this game pertaining to the race. Doing so might help me with my evaluation on my partner Chief, as well as help crystallize some voting decisions.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - I'm willing to be pretty open about what our team has been doing (and we are in first) if others are willing to share some details as well. I'm hoping to evaluate relative performances and better understand why teams are in the position they are.

If there is some wolf reward for being in first in the race I have inadvertently been aiding and abetting the enemy.

I don't necessarily think this is happening, but I want to rule it out. In an abstract sense, I'm surprised to be alive with Chief Rum on Day 6 and could use some help convincing myself that this is a good thing (ie - we're both villagers and just haven't fallen atop wolf priorities so far).

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

Autumn: Assuming I'm not voting in self-defense, this is where I'm leaning for my vote today. His D1 will obviously look worse to me than anyone else, but I also don't like the switch to mau after he basically came out as 'seer', I don't understand it. I don't like that he's been trying to make a case for CR as wolf because of him taking back the vote on mau and leaving out the best evidence for CR being cleared in mau putting vote #2 on Chief. I haven't poured over his previous posts but I think he was making a case for ntn which I don't think is realistic. Now knowing that Danny is a villager, I don't like how he jumped on my idea of saying he thought Danny was most suspicious for most of the day D4 then gave a reason why he thought Danny was ok, and then immediately voted Danny D5. Honestly, the best thing I can say about Autumn thus far is that he didn't come out and vote me right away today when as a wolf, it would've seemed like the obvious set-up after the past couple days.

Let me address these things. Number one, I haven't made a case for NTN at all, so I think you must be thinking of someone else. I don't see much in either direction for NTN, other than that we'd learn about the day 1 vote.

I'm not discounting the "best evidence" for Chief being a villager. We've already seen Martin put the 2nd or 3rd vote on Mauboy, so I don't know why Mauboy putting a vote on Chief should be evidence of anything. There is better evidence for Chief being a villager than that, including his last switch from NTN to Mauboy.

Lastly, as I explained at the time, I did not notice Mauboy's "I see the future" post at the time. If you go back you'll see that I asked Mauboy to give more information if he was going to hint at a role at the last minute. I was not inclined to vote my teammate just because Mauboy was making a last second desperation move. When Mauboy didn't give any more details I voted him. When Danny or somebody pointed out the seer comment I moved my vote. You can see all that back in the thread.

I don't remember what you said about Danny yesterday, but I voted Danny simply for my own reasons. I was getting an off vibe from him watching his posts over the last couple days. That combined with the fact that he had a questionable vote Day 1 was why I voted him. I was trying to go with my gut since there are a number of people with suspect votes and I'm really unsure where to go.

[hoopsguy]

One last dola - need to update an earlier statement.

If there is some wolf reward for being in first in the race I have inadvertently been aiding and abetting the enemy.

Should be a may have been instead of "have" ... I don't know where Chief falls, but paranoia is starting to kick in.