FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I know someone touted a cheap re-up with DT Buggs here... looks like he got a 2y deal just before the FA deadline. Incentives up to a total of $6m. Don't hate it.

The gold rush at the beginning of FA makes this an even nicer play.

[Bobble]

Here's what my guy at Motor City Football has to say about the Sutton signing.

Ranked by PFF as a top-25 free agent, Sutton is a desirable player thanks to his experience and versatility. He started off more so a slot cornerback early into his career, but recently, has excelled as the Steelers top cornerback on the outside the last two seasons after re-signing on a 2-year deal worth $9 million back in 2021.

At 5’11, Sutton is not the tallest cornerback out there, but is quite athletic, and carries his man in coverage well across the middle of the field.

As for how this affects the Lions going forward, the size of Sutton’s deal, $33 million over three-years, is clearly starter money. I would expect Sutton continues to maintain a spot as an outside cornerback in Detroit, though his slot versatility is something to note as Detroit continues to build out its new secondary. As far as the Draft goes, to the extent that anyone wishes to try and glean something from this signing, Sutton looks far more like Devon Witherspoon as a player than Gonzalez, meaning this would likely nudge the Lions a bit more towards a true CB1 on the outside over another outside-inside 5’11 cornerback like Devon Witherspoon. Realistically though, that is likely reading too much into it, and Detroit’s options remain quite wide open.

A very good start for Brad Holmes, Ray Agnew, Dan Campbell, and Mike Disner landing a quality player at a quality price at a position of need. It should also be noted that Sutton now becomes the most expensive external signing that Brad Holmes has made to-date. Only the Lions re-signing of EDGE Romeo Okwara cost more, but again, that was a re-signing.

[QuikSand]

We mostly want a quiet couple of days here, methinks. Let the Bears run up a huge tab. We find some value amidst the embers.

[albionmoonlight]

Don't like Anzalone at the price, honestly. Feels like a bit of an overpay to keep a guy they are familiar with.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I know someone touted a cheap re-up with DT Buggs here... looks like he got a 2y deal just before the FA deadline. Incentives up to a total of $6m. Don't hate it.

I think that was me, I was glad to see it happen.

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Don't like Anzalone at the price, honestly. Feels like a bit of an overpay to keep a guy they are familiar with.

Same. This deal feels like it was unavoidable. Anzalone did everything asked of him for two one-year contracts in a row & it seems like Holmes and Campbell have to reward him if they want to remain true to everything they preach. While it probably does put to rest any talk of a flashy FA LB signing, I think Holmes might still treat it as a position of need come draft time.

[Honolulu_Blue]

I am fan of the Cam Sutton deal. Seems like a solid player at a good price and fills a huge area of need. It, also, gives the Lions more flexibility when it comes to the draft. I never warmed up to the notion of taking a cornerback at 6. I generally don't like taking corners that high. I think they could still use another cornerback for sure, because other than Sutton and Jerry Jacobs, I am not convinced of anyone on the roster. That very much includes Okudah, who was benched at the end of the season.

I agree with albion and sloppy, I don't love the Anzalone signing. He wouldn't have received that kind of money anywhere else in the league. He played well last year and is a heart-and-soul guy on this team, but the Lions desperately needed an upgrade in talent at the LB position, not a lateral move. I hear the culture point and I know it's important, but Azalone is a back-up on a good defense. This defense was historically bad for half the season, the status was not, and is not, quo.

Unfortunately, I do think the Anzalone deal likely precludes the Lions from signing an impact free agent at that position. Unless you have almost unlimited cap space (see, e.g., the Bears), you can't pour a ton of resources at a non-premium position.

I like having Buggs back. I still think the Lions could use more help in the interior of that D-Line.

The Lions have, also, restructured Tracy Walkers deal giving them a little more cap space to play with.

Looking at the draft after yesterday:

- I desperately wanted the Lions to have a shot at either Will Anderson or Jalen Carter for months. No way Anderson gets to them, unless they trade up. Given Carter's recent legal issues, I believe there is a chance he could fall to 6. That being said, even if he does, I really believe that the Lions won't draft him. I don't think it's so much due to the legal issues, but there have been enough reports out there that Georgia coaching staff had to ride Carter to play hard and he seems to lack motivation and have a very inconsistent motor. I have no idea if that's true or not, but if it is, he really doesn't seem to fit the Lions mold. They want players who love, love, love football - St. Brown, Sewell, Hutchinson, etc. Carter doesn't seem to be that player, so I could see the Lions passing on him.

- If the Lions do pass on Carter or he's gone by 6, I think I like Tyree Wilson out of the Texas Tech. Pass rush and D-Line feel like the way to go. Sharpen the tip of that spear!

- I love the idea of the Lions drafting DT Calijah Kancey as a player who can provide pressure up the middle. The only downside to him is that he's quite small, which could make the Lions even easier to run against. Given the current talent level at the LB position having undersized linemen could pose an issue.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I did a 4-round draft at 2023 NFL Mock Draft Simulator With Free Trades - Pro Football Network with no trades, and basically "no nonsense" (ignoring guys who seemed to be absurdly undervalued)...and this looks pretty close to a solid baseline to me:

1.06 EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
1.18 CB Cam Smith, South Carolina
2.17 TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
3rd LB Jack Campbell, Iowa
3rd G Steve Avlia, TCU

I really liked this mock! It provides help at every level of the defense, gives Ben Johnson/Goff a solid weapon at TE (they worked wonders with a bunch of UDFA type guys post-Hockenson) and addresses the gaping hole at RG.

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I also have the CBs rated, for Detroit:

Gonzalez
Witherspoon
(gap)
Porter
(gap)
Smith
Forbes

Concur. I feel like Witherspoon is the most "Aaron Glenn" CB of this draft, but Gonzalez's athleticism puts him over the top.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

- If the Lions do pass on Carter or he's gone by 6, I think I like Tyree Wilson out of the Texas Tech. Pass rush and D-Line feel like the way to go. Sharpen the tip of that spear!

I'm pimping the same site again but it's my best source of in-depth knowledge. Motor City Football doesn't think Wilson is a great fit for Detroit. Full article has more and is worth a read. See if you agree. Some clips:

From an on-field perspective, Wilson is a bit more raw than you probably would want out of a top ten selection, but overall he would likely slot in as more of a true SDE, more or less similar to how the Lions have started deploying Joshua Paschal, an outside-inside edge player who can easily start on the outside of a formation on first- and second-down, but also has the capacity to kick inside and rush from interior alignments.

Now, as to how he fits the Brad Holmes mold? He really doesn’t. The Rams prioritized explosiveness off the edge, and that simply is not an accurate way to describe Tyree Wilson. He’s big and long and shifty, but he lacks the urgency, violence, and explosiveness off that snap that so far has defined Brad Holmes’ EDGE selections. Even in Detroit, both Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston were classified and profiled as explosive athletes. Wilson would be a stark break from that. It doesn’t mean it’s not worthwhile, it just means it’s different than what the loose expectation is.

Here’s the bigger issue when evaluating this though. I do not, personally, believe Tyree Wilson warrants the kind of hype that people like Daniel Jeremiah are saying he has. I think there is certainly a good player to work with, but Wilson is highly raw, and like Brad Holmes, I find explosiveness and urgency to be the top two traits for scouting pass rushers, and I think Wilson is noticeably lacking in both, especially in terms of a top ten selection.

Add in that you would also be drafting over Joshua Paschal in year two (though I personally wouldn’t care about that overall), and making the Lions potential re-signing of John Cominsky somewhat redundant, and I am left largely uninspired by the thought of Detroit grabbing Wilson at sixth-overall.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Interesting stuff. Thanks for sharing!

Our man at Motor City Football feels like Gonzalez should be the pick at 6.

[QuikSand]

FanSpeak mock draft today. No trades, with the free version, so just making moves from our current locations.

Using a draft lick furnished by DRAFTPLEX whatever that is, idano, but open to surprises there...

Okay, DE Tyree Wilson goes at pick 4 here, and Will Anderson is available at 6. I will ignore that and instead still look to make a realistic selection. All the CB, OL and WR are available, as are RB Bijan Robinson and S Brian Branch. I decide to just go with the big CB Gonzalez, playing off the smaller guy they just signed as a free agent, and the fact that I don't love any of the DL here.

1.6 CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon

Okay, this draft list is trash, Will Anderson and Bijan Robinson are both here at pick 18, why am I wasting my time? I will ignore Anderson again, and consider Robinson... but will instead go with the edge I like best for them here:

1.18 DE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa

By the mid 2nd, we are through the hot TE prospects, just LaPorta here. But LB Trenton Simpson is avaliable. Unrealistic, I think, I will skip him. I dcide to go after the OL need spot, with a guy I have been getting here in many mocks:

2.18 G Steve Avila, TCU

And now I love dropping in some serious beef to the middle of the DL:

2.24 DT Siaki Ika, Baylor

In the 3rd, I don't really have much feel for the remaining TEs but will target a pass catcher I like for the middle rounds in this draft. Rice is a 6'1" contested catch guy, which sounds like a useful fit for this roster.

3.18 WR Rashee Rice, SMU

From here, just fits and finds...

152: R5 P17 S Brandon Hill - Pitt
183: R6 P6 LB Ivan Pace Jr. - Cincinnati
194: R6 P17 TE Zack Kuntz - Old Dominion

[Honolulu_Blue]

I couldn't resist and it's been a while since I've done a PFF mock draft, well before the combine, trade, etc.

No trades and the board does seem to be a little more realistic than what Quik just did (Will Anderson at 18!).

So, here goes:

1.6 DT Jalen Carter, Georgia

Jalen Carter fell to six. The Seahawks took Tyree Wilson at 5. I could have taken any of the corners here, but went with the only blue chip talent left on the board that, also, fits a need.

1.18 RB Bijan Robinson, Texas

At 18, the best cornerback on the board was Deonte Banks. I, also, had my picks of the tight ends and more d-line help in the form of Kancey and Van Ness. Still, I went with who I felt was the most talented player left on the board.

2.55 LB Daiyan Henley, LB

If the Lions aren't going to address the linebacker position in free agency, let's do it in the draft. I love Daiyan Henley. He'd be the 4th linebacker off the board at this point.

2.55 CB Garrett Williams, Syracuse

I had a few options here. The most intriguing are DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah and DE Adetomiwa Adebawore. I, also, have a lot of love for tiny wideout Nathaniel "Tank" Dell, though his profile doesn't fit what I think the Lions are looking for, so I finally address CB.

3.81 WR A.T. Perry, Wake Forest

Tank Dell is still there, but the Lions are looking for size at WR, so 6'5" A.T. Perry it is.

5.153 TE Zack Kuntz, Old Dominion

This is a super deep TE class and 6'8" 245 lbs Jack Kuntz could fill a nice need. With a 6'5" Walker and 6'8" Kuntz, the Lions have added some significant size to the pass catcher corps.

I am just throwing darts from this point forward...

6.182 ED Jose Ramirez, Eastern Michigan

6.193 QB Stetson Bennett, Georgia

Here is the PFF grade for each pick:

Jalen Carter: A+
Bijan Robinson: D (ouch!)
Daiyan Henley: A
Garrett Williams: B-
A.T. Perry: B-
Zack Kuntz: B
Jose Ramirez: B+
Stetson Bennett: A-

Overall Grade: B+

I think this draft is a bit heavier on the offense than most would want - drafting a RB, TE, WR and QB, though I did use three of the five "premium picks" (those in the first three rounds) on defense - DT, LB and CB. I didn't address the hole at guard, which I don't love.

[QuikSand]

Yeah, I keep having to make judgment calls in mock drafts about what players are unrealistic. I think Bijan being there at 18 is maybe... 25-50% likely? So not totally absurd. PFF is anti-RB so their tool is going to make him fall every time, so you just have to factor that in, or else you end up taking him in every draft and skip over most of the guys who will actually be in consideration there.

I'm having similar problems with Pitt DT Kancey, whom PFF now has as a top-25 guy but many other sites have in round two or three. And TCU G Steve Avila, who seems to be all over the place. Syracuse CB Garrett Williams is around in rounds 4-5 in other mock models, too.

[QuikSand]

Nobody here wanted David Montgomery for $6m/yr. Awful.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Nobody here wanted David Montgomery for $6m/yr. Awful.

Gross. I would've preferred they give Jamaal Williams everything he wanted and let Anzalone walk.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Gross. I would've preferred they give Jamaal Williams everything he wanted and let Anzalone walk.

+1

Barf.

[Honolulu_Blue]

You don’t pay 25 year old running backs that kind of money.

Running back is the position in football to go young and cheap. You really don’t need to pay big bucks to have an effective running game. Jamaal Williams wouldn’t have been young or cheap, but I could see him re-signing due to the culture fit and leadership, much like with the Anzalone re-signing.

I just don’t really get this move, especially with such a deep running back class in this year’s draft.

[thesloppy]

I guess the Lions also re-signed DL John Cominsky & picked up another FA cornerback, former 49er Emmanuel Moseley.


I can't really claim to know anything about Moseley, but people seem to like the signing, saying he was starting caliber but hampered by serious injuries, for better or worse. I do like that they're addressing the position.

Cominsky was always good for a couple tackles a game and is a solid bench guy that seemed to fit in the locker room well, so can't really complain about bringing him back.

[albionmoonlight]

Rumor is Williams wanted $8-10 million/year.

That might be why the Lions moved on.

I don't see anyone giving him that.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Rumor is Williams wanted $8-10 million/year.

That might be why the Lions moved on.

I don't see anyone giving him that.

Absolutely not. I love him as a player, but that's way too much.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I guess the Lions also re-signed DL John Cominsky & picked up another FA cornerback, former 49er Emmanuel Moseley.


I can't really claim to know anything about Moseley, but people seem to like the signing, saying he was starting caliber but hampered by serious injuries, for better or worse. I do like that they're addressing the position.

Cominsky was always good for a couple tackles a game and is a solid bench guy that seemed to fit in the locker room well, so can't really complain about bringing him back.

I like the Cominsky re-signing. He was a really valuable piece along the defensive line. When he went down with the hand injury, the defense really struggled. You need a ton of depth on the D-Line and he and Buggs definitely provide it.

[stevew]

Here’s a breakdown of Montgomery’s base salaries and cap hits:

2023: $1.125M fully guaranteed; cap hit of $2.875M
2024: $5.25M ($3M fully guaranteed; additional $2.25M fully guaranteed if on roster third day of 2024 league year); $6.875M cap hit
2025: $5.5M; $7.125M cap hit
2026: Void; $1.125M cap hit


I got that from elsewhere. I don't think it's that bad. It's basically a 2 year deal and you can pretty much cut him after year 1 if he sucks.

[albionmoonlight]

Yeah. I have about as good of likelihood of seeing that 2025 salary as he does.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Our dreams of a solid, veteran linebacker seem to be dead. Lavonte David is re-signing with Tampa. Bobby Wagner is still available, but that seems like quite the longshot.

[albionmoonlight]

Looking at the deal that Williams got with the Saints, I have no idea why the Lions didn’t just keep him.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Looking at the deal that Williams got with the Saints, I have no idea why the Lions didn’t just keep him.

Yeah, that's a head scratcher. You wonder how much of these deals are dictated by timing....like maybe Williams did make excessive demands, causing the Lions to move on, after which Williams discovered no one else was willing to meet those demands. On paper it makes no sense.

[QuikSand]

Noah Sewell NFL Draft Scouting Report - Draft Network

I'm seeing Noah Sewell pop up as the "best LB available" in mock drafts. Some obvious synergy opportunities there. Anyone have thoughts on throwing a 2nd or 3rd on this kid?

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Noah Sewell NFL Draft Scouting Report - Draft Network

I'm seeing Noah Sewell pop up as the "best LB available" in mock drafts. Some obvious synergy opportunities there. Anyone have thoughts on throwing a 2nd or 3rd on this kid?

I’ve seen him pop up in some mocks that go into the later rounds. I would be down for it. He fills a need, seems like the type of player the Lions are keen on, and you have to enjoy the brother angle.

In other news, I like the Graham Glasgow signing. He could be a starter or great interior backup. We still have no clarity on Vitai, but I think they save more if he’s a post June 1 cut. Right guard remains the one weak spot on the line.

Chark’s still out there, too.

I was quietly hoping the Lions would sign LB Dru Tranquil, but he signed a one year deal with the Chiefs.

[thesloppy]

Vatai seems like he's been an albatross practically as soon as he signed & yet I'd almost be happy to continue to overpay him just to keep that line as undisturbed as possible. This is the best Lions OL in like 2-3 decades at least.

[QuikSand]

WR Marquez Callaway was, a couple of years ago, the whispered guy to play the WR1/X in the Saints offense while Michael Thomas was in injury limbo. He had one season in the main part of the mix there, and just got non-tendered. Just turning 25. Worth a low risk signing for a team looking for just a bit more from its WR corps, I'd think.

[thesloppy]

For sure I think WR is a bit of a wildcard that's still wide open. Everyone (myself included) is hoping Jameson Williams can easily slide into that #2 role, but he's effectively a rookie and 400-600yds could be realistic expectations. As we've discussed before Reynolds and Raymond have both probably played above expectations and conceivably you could roll with those guys at 3&4, but I would still rather upgrade a couple of those WR slots, regardless of where you pencil in Williams.

Seems like if the Lions wanted DJ Chark to be part of this conversation he would be by now.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Seems like if the Lions wanted DJ Chark to be part of this conversation he would be by now.

I read it the same way. Interesting to me there may be no real market for him.

[JPhillips]

CJ Garner-Johnson goes to the Lions on a one-year deal.

[QuikSand]

So, does that take CB off the list for an early draft pick? Seems that way.

I think I’m sizing up the safety for a jersey in my mocks now. DT/S, Edge/S, maybe even the top LB? WR?

[thesloppy]

Interesting. I love to see the attention to the secondary & the defense in general.


At this point I think we can certainly say we know who Brad Holmes is. He's definitely active in free agency, doesn't seem to be attracted to the biggest tickets, but he's not afraid to sign one or two solid free agents to longer-term contracts & beyond that his focus seems to be on locating multiple short-term bargains. Can't argue with the results so far.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Do we think he’s going to play safety or corner? Maybe a little bit of both? The Lions are thin at safety with really only Tracy Walker recovering from an Achilles and second year Kerby Joseph of note.

This does give the Lions flexibility in the draft. I think DT is still a position of need. There’s depth, but a lack of real talent. Edge is another. We definitely need some help at LB. Offensively, another wideout, an upgrade at TE, a guard, and back-up QB are all on the table.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

This does give the Lions flexibility in the draft. I think DT is still a position of need. There’s depth, but a lack of real talent. Edge is another. We definitely need some help at LB. Offensively, another wideout, an upgrade at TE, a guard, and back-up QB are all on the table.

I think you nailed all the needs. All of those spots are set enough that you could roll with what they've got, but I wouldn't really want to, but even with the Lions draft capitol you don't want to count on getting more than 1-2 players that can contribute immediately.

[albionmoonlight]

Getting CJGJ on a one year deal is great. I think that Campbell can focus his crazy in a good way. But, if not, there’s no long term deal to get out of.

The kind of low risk, high reward signing you want out of free agency.

Other than messing up RB, the Lions front office is playing this like a lot of us suggested here.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Other than messing up RB, the Lions front office is playing this like a lot of us suggested here.

It has been interesting to watch that narrative evolve. Seems obvious that everyone outside of the Lions organization, even most Lions fans, considered that signing a downgrade, while the front office seems to consider Montgomery much more valuable than Williams. To be fair Williams only did realize his potential after getting behind Detroit's line & apparently they're convinced Montgomery can produce even beyond what Williams did last year.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

It has been interesting to watch that narrative evolve. Seems obvious that everyone outside of the Lions organization, even most Lions fans, considered that signing a downgrade, while the front office seems to consider Montgomery much more valuable than Williams. To be fair Williams only did realize his potential after getting behind Detroit's line & apparently they're convinced Montgomery can produce even beyond what Williams did last year.

I don't see the signing as a downgrade. I think Montgomery is probably a better running back than Jamaal Williams and is younger, too. It was really more about the money spent and the loss of Williams as the face of the Lions, team captain, spiritual leader and all of that.

I think they've upgraded at RB. I just thought they'd do so through the draft, which still could happen, I suppose.

[sterlingice]

But what you lost out on with Williams is press conferences with questions about Pokemon

Saints’ Jamaal Williams gives reporter Pokémon lesson in introductory press conference

SI

[B & B]

Boys, lets go!


The upgrade at RB is huge. Dumpoffs from Goff. DM WILL THRIVE.

The secondary. Cant put into words. Starters. Starters. Not a liability ANYMORE.

Still a rental(s) on the one year deal but lets focus.

Trade DOWN, dont panic at bQB and dont let me throw electronics off my balcony

[albionmoonlight]

PFF Mock:

CJ Stroud was still on the board at 1.6. It did not strike me as unrealistic that one of the big four would be there, so I let it go. Stroud is currently my favorite, so I had a real decision about whether to just take him or not. I decided to trade with Atlanta at 8 and got the 44th overall pick in exchange. Atlanta then took the QB, and DL Carter went next--who I wasn't touching this high, so I got the 44th overall pick and didn't lose any value.

1.8--Christian Gonzalez, CB Oregon (signing Gardner Johnson for one year does not make a big young outside corner less of a need)

1.18--Bijan Robinson, RB Texas (greed pick on my part. PFF gave it a D.)

2.44--Jack Campbell, LB Iowa (Resigning Anzalone does not change my vision of Campbell and Rodriguez as a great young LB core)

2.48 Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge Kansas State (great value here)

2.55 Sam LaPorta, TE Iowa (athletic and productive. Hope to develop into a good #3 option at some point)

Side note--having 2 firsts and 3 seconds makes mock drafting fun

3.81--Nathaniel Dell, WR Houston (another greed pick. Guys like this (undersized weapons) tend not to work out in the NFL. But when they hit, they are a lot of fun).

5.152--Aidian O'Connell, QB Purdue. (We will see if passing up on CJ Stroud was a franchise destroying decision or not. But until then, it makes sense to take a dart throw at a guy to develop.)

6-183--Brodric Martin, DL Western Kentucky. (Guy has all of the physical tools you want. Just needs to be coached up. I love him as a late round guy. At a minimum, he's 330+, so even if he never develops like I expect, he can still give you run-stuffer snaps on early downs).

6-194--Hunter Luepke, FB North Dakota State (I know nothing about him. I just wanted to give Dan Campbell an honest to goodness fullback. PFF gives this an F).

I really like this draft overall. But, as noted, if trading down to avoid picking Stroud becomes a Bowie over Jordan moment, then this whole draft is a disaster in hindsight.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

PFF Mock:

CJ Stroud was still on the board at 1.6. It did not strike me as unrealistic that one of the big four would be there, so I let it go. Stroud is currently my favorite, so I had a real decision about whether to just take him or not. I decided to trade with Atlanta at 8 and got the 44th overall pick in exchange. Atlanta then took the QB, and DL Carter went next--who I wasn't touching this high, so I got the 44th overall pick and didn't lose any value.

1.8--Christian Gonzalez, CB Oregon (signing Gardner Johnson for one year does not make a big young outside corner less of a need)

1.18--Bijan Robinson, RB Texas (greed pick on my part. PFF gave it a D.)

2.44--Jack Campbell, LB Iowa (Resigning Anzalone does not change my vision of Campbell and Rodriguez as a great young LB core)

2.48 Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge Kansas State (great value here)

2.55 Sam LaPorta, TE Iowa (athletic and productive. Hope to develop into a good #3 option at some point)

Side note--having 2 firsts and 3 seconds makes mock drafting fun

3.81--Nathaniel Dell (another greed pick. Guys like this (undersized weapons) tend not to work out in the NFL. But when they hit, they are a lot of fun).

5.152--Aidian O'Connell, QB Purdue. (We will see if passing up on CJ Stroud was a franchise destroying decision or not. But until then, it makes sense to take a dart throw at a guy to develop.)

6-183--Brodric Martin, DL Western Kentucky. (Guy has all of the physical tools you want. Just needs to be coached up. I love him as a late round guy. At a minimum, he's 330+, so even if he never develops like I expect, he can still give you run-stuffer snaps on early downs).

6-194--Hunter Luepke, FB North Dakota State (I know nothing about him. I just wanted to give Dan Campbell an honest to goodness fullback. PFF gives this an F).

I really like this draft overall. But, as noted, if trading down to avoid picking Stroud becomes a Bowie over Jordan moment, then this whole draft is a disaster in hindsight.

That's not a bad mock at all.

I know the Lions free agency moves have drastically improved their defensive backfield, but it's important to remember that after this year, the only CB of note the Lions will have under contract is Cameron Sutton. Pretty much every other cornerback will be a free agent after this season, so CB is still a need in the near-to-medium term.

Mel Kiper's most recent first round mock (released today) has the Lions taking Jalen Carter and Michael Mayer.

[QuikSand]

By the way, I'm now back into YES to DT Jalen Carter if he's available at 1.6. Not sure if that's a point of agreement here, but I'm in.

[QuikSand]

1.8--Christian Gonzalez, CB Oregon (signing Gardner Johnson for one year does not make a big young outside corner less of a need)

1.18--Bijan Robinson, RB Texas (greed pick on my part. PFF gave it a D.)

2.44--Jack Campbell, LB Iowa (Resigning Anzalone does not change my vision of Campbell and Rodriguez as a great young LB core)

2.48 Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge Kansas State (great value here)

2.55 Sam LaPorta, TE Iowa (athletic and productive. Hope to develop into a good #3 option at some point)

Yeah, the framing is looking really familiar. I am dealing down from 1.6 a lot and picking up a 2nd, and then thinking of these five picks as a cohort, of a sort. Mentally rounding down the rest of the picks to darts, these are the guys we are counting on.

My overall thoughts:

-Feels like defense deserves a minimum of three picks. It should feel like a defensive focused draft, in my mind.

-That said, I am tempted by both Bijan (no other RB) and one of several TEs in various spots, so... I don't hate what you did there.

-I also still think that a 2nd round IOL could make sense, and that feels less contradictory somehow than skill players.

-I think the do need to add someone on the defensive line, inside or out, especially since they have skipped it, for the most part, in free agency. They might be a wise team that grabs a veteran rental in June (and I would support that, Trey Flowers or somesuch) but on paper it's a gaping need that I want to target in this complement somewhere.

Right now, given the CJGJ signing, I'm finding that skipping CB is the way to pull it all together easily.

[sterlingice]

Is Bijan Robinson a generational talent that's worth expending a middle 1st on? Like isn't the CW now that you just don't spend high on an RB? Especially for a team that has other needs.

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Is Bijan Robinson a generational talent that's worth expending a middle 1st on? Like isn't the CW now that you just don't spend high on an RB? Especially for a team that has other needs.

SI

Here's how I look at it: 20 years ago, he'd probably be the first non-QB off the board. And we have rightly corrected for that. Most teams understand that Edge, CB, OT, WR provide you with much more value high in the draft.

So the question becomes how much do we correct for that? Some might say that you can always find a better player/position than a top RB in the first round. And that you should just never draft one before the mid-second or something like that. They might even have the charts and graphs to prove it.

Personally, I think that RBs tend to have value early in their career. And if you can get a guy who ends up being a cost-controlled option for four years (or 5 with the 5th year option) and a top-5 RB, that's worth it with a mid-first round pick.

The key is to be cold and calculating about it. When he's a fan favorite and he's been producing for you for four years, and he comes asking about his contract extension, that's when you need to let him hit free agency and have Jerry Jones overpay for him.

And I get that it still seems a little strange to draft a guy knowing that he's not in your long term plans. You'll still hear people at the draft say "And they just got their left tackle for the next 12 years." But for non-QBs, that's not how it works. NFL rosters change constantly. So if this guy will be great for a short amount of time, I'm fine with that.

[QuikSand]

+1 to that, exactly right... he's the exception, and this team is in the right posture to make a move like that, especially with a "bonus" first rounder.

[QuikSand]

By the way, if the Bengals and up with Bijan, literally everyone is going to talk about how they did the whole thing the right way for modern football. Let Perine walk, float that maybe you're done with Mixon because reasons, and then on draft day even if it takes a minor trade-up, you pounce like a big cat and bring aboard a potential impact player on a 4y cheap deal right when you need it. It's purrrrfect for them, if our cat-themed team is unwilling.

[Solecismic]

$8.85m more in cap room as the inevitable Romeo Okwara renegotiation went through.

He has an impact on the edge when healthy, but he hasn't been healthy a lot lately. He'll get $2m in base pay, plus $29k per game active, which counts as $147k right now I think because he was active for five games last season. It ends up being depth at a place you need depth at a reasonable cost for someone who has done what he's done but has to be considered fragile at this point.

He was also part of one of the more unusual transactions last year, as he came off the PUP list the same week his brother, Julian, who also plays OLB/Edge for the Lions, went on the IR.