FOFC's Greatest Athlete III (interactive)

[Breeze]

Event 2 – Long Jump – Preview

Event Favorites
Ketola & Nielsen

Event Underdogs
Ginsberg, Bafou, Honcho

After poor showings in the 100 for Ginsberg and Honcho it is a bad time for them to be in the underdog category...

[BYU 14]

A 10.3 keeps Chilton where he needs to be, since I don't even know if can finish the 1500. I will need to make hay in the track events.

[Breeze]

Event 2 – Long Jump - Result Specifics

Safe
Injuries – 0%
Fouls – 0%

Average
Injuries - 2.3%
Fouls - 29.37%

All Out
Injuries – 4.6%
Fouls – 58.75%

[Breeze]

Event 2 – Long Jump – Card Review

(note: all predictions assume average attempts)

Ketola
- SAFE – 22’7” (fair) to 25’11” (poor), average roll appears to be around 24’, with the high probability rolls hovering around the mid 23’ range
- AVE – 24’10” (average) to 27’1” (average), average roll appears to be around 26’ with high probability rolls in the low 26’ range
- ALLOUT – 24’10” (average) to 27’ 10” (extremely rare), average roll appears to be around 26’
- Prediction – 26’ 2”

Babson
- SAFE – 21’4” (average) to 25 (average), average roll appears to be around 23’5”, with the high probability rolls hovering around the mid 23’ range
- AVE – 23’4” (rare) to 26’5” (extremely rare), average roll appears to be around 25’ with high probability rolls ranging from high 24’ to low 26’
- ALLOUT – 22’11” (average) to 27’ 3” (fair), average roll appears to be around 26’ with high probability rolls ranging from mid 24’ to mid 26’
- Prediction – 25’

Nielsen
- SAFE – 22’4” (fair) to 25’7” (poor), average roll appears to be around 24’, with the high probability rolls hovering around the mid 23’ to low 24’ range
- AVE – 24’7” (rare) to 26’10” (fair), average roll appears to be around 25’6” with high probability rolls ranging from high 24’10” to low 26’
- ALLOUT – 24’10” (good) to 27’2” (average), average roll appears to be around mid 26’ with high probability rolls ranging from 24’10” to upper 26’
- Prediction – 25’6”

Honcho
- SAFE – 19’6” (good) to 23’11” (poor), average roll appears to be around 21’6”, with the high probability rolls hovering in upper 20’ to lower 21’ range
- AVE – 21’1” (rare) to 24’5” (good), average roll appears to be around 23’8” with high probability rolls mostly in the 23’ range
- ALLOUT – 22’5” (good) to 25’8” (extremely rare), average roll appears to be in low 24’ range with high probability rolls falling in the 24’ range
- Prediction – 23’ 8”

Jordan
- SAFE – 21’11” (good) to 25’3” (average), average roll appears to be around 22’8”, with the high probability rolls also hovering around 22’8”
- AVE – 22’3” (rare) to 26’6” (average), average roll appears to be around 25’ with high probability rolls mostly between 24’10” and 25’10”
- ALLOUT – 23’8” (average) to 27’4” (extremely rare), average roll appears to be in low 25’8” range with high probability rolls falling in the upper 25’ to lower 26’ range
- Prediction – 25’ 3”

Mighty
- SAFE – 20’2” (average) to 25’2” (rare), average roll appears to be around 23’10”, with the high probability rolls mostly in the low 23’, but there is that 21’3” on one of the most likely rolls
- AVE – 23’4” (rare) to 25’10” (fair), average roll appears to be around 25’3” with high probability rolls mostly in the mid 25’ range
- ALLOUT – 23’8” (fair) to 27’4” (extremely rare), average roll appears to be in low 25’10” range with high probability rolls mostly in the 26’ range
- Prediction – 25’ 3”

Rambis Jr.
- SAFE – 20’9” (fair) to 24’7” (rare), average roll appears to be around 22’8”, with the high probability rolls from very high 21’ to high 22’
- AVE – 23’2” (fair) to 25’7” (great), average roll appears to be around 24’8”, with the high probability rolls varied from 23’8” to 25’7”
- ALLOUT – 23 (fair) to 26’3” (extremely rare), average roll appears to be 25’ range with high probability rolls is varied but most are in the low 25’ range
- Prediction – 24’ 10”

Schaplowsky
- SAFE – 21’ (fair) to 24’5” (rare), average roll appears to be around 24’ with the high probability rolls mostly in the 24’ range
- AVE – 23’8” (fair) to 25’8” (rare), average roll appears to be around 24’8”, with the high probability rolls from the mid 24’ to mid 25’ range
- ALLOUT – 22’9” (fair) to 26’5” (extremely rare), average roll appears to be 25’2” range with high probability rolls mostly in the mid to upper 25’ range
- Prediction – 24’ 4”

Path
- SAFE – 21’ 1” (fair) to 24’4” (fair), average roll appears to be around 22’10” with the high probability rolls in the upper 21’ to upper 22’ range
- AVE – 23’6” (rare) to 25’5” (rare), average roll appears to be around 24’6”, with the high probability rolls from the upper 23’ to mid 24’ range
- ALLOUT – 23’5” (extremely rare) to 26’2” (extremely rare), average roll appears to be 25’ range with high probability rolls most are in lower 25’ range
- Prediction – 24’

Palmiero
- SAFE – 21’ 4” (fair) to 25’ (extremely rare), average roll appears to be around 23’2” with the high probability rolls in the lower 23’ range
- AVE – 22’1” (fair) to 26’1” (good), average roll appears to be around 24’10”, with the high probability rolls spread out but several in the upper 25’ range
- ALLOUT – 23’7” (fair) to 27’3” (fair), average roll appears to be upper 25’ range with high probability rolls ranging from 24’5 to 26’10”
- Prediction – 25’ 4”

Ginsberg
- SAFE – 19’ 1” (average) to 23’11” (rare), average roll appears to be around 22’ with the high probability rolls mostly in the 21’ range
- AVE – 21’6” (fair) to 24’4” (average), average roll appears to be around 23’2”, with the high probability rolls mostly in the 23’ range
- ALLOUT – 23’ (fair) to 25’5” (rare), average roll appears to be upper 23’ 10” range with high probability rolls ranging around low 24’ results
- Prediction – 23’ 9”

Peltonen
- SAFE – 20’ 11” (fair) to 24’3” (extremely rare), average roll appears to be around 22’ 7” with the high probability rolls mostly in the upper 21’ to mid 22’ range
- AVE – 22’11” (fair) to 25’8” (average), average roll appears to be around 24’’2”, with the high probability rolls mostly in the 24’ range
- ALLOUT – 23’1” (fair) to 26’5” (extremely rare), average roll appears 25’ range with high probability rolls ranging bounces between upper 23’ and mid 25’
- Prediction – 24’ 2”

Bafou
- SAFE – 18’ 11” (good) to 23’11” (rare), average roll appears to be around 21’ 4” with the high probability rolls in the lower 21’ range
- AVE – 21’6” (rare) to 24’5” (good), average roll appears to be around 23’’2”, with the high probability rolls between low 23’ and lower-mid 24’
- ALLOUT – 20’11” (rare) to 25’9” (extremely rare), average roll appears 24’ with high probability rolls ranging mainly in the lower 24’ range
- Prediction – 23’ 2”

Llyw
- SAFE – 21’ 4” (fair) to 24’5” (fair), average roll appears to be around 22’ 5” with the high probability rolls mostly in the lower 22’ range
- AVE – 23’ (extremely rare) to 24’3” (good), average roll appears to be around 24’2”, with the high probability rolls mostly in the low 24’ area
- ALLOUT – 22’5” (fair) to 26’4” (extremely rare), average roll appears 25’2” with high probability rolls ranging mainly around 25’
- Prediction – 24’ 6”

Chilton
- SAFE – 20’ 2” (good) to 25’3” (average), average roll appears to be around 22’ 9” with the high probability rolls mostly in the 22’ range
- AVE – 23’4” (rare) to 26’3” (good), average roll appears to be around 24’8”, with the high probability rolls ranging from 24’4” to 26’3”
- ALLOUT – 22’9” (rare) to 27’2” (extremely rare), average roll appears 26’ with high probability rolls ranging in the upper 25’ to mid 26’ range
- Prediction – 25’

[Breeze]

Event 2 - Long Jump - Player Announcements

I am now ready for you to annouce your effort level for jump 1 of the Long Jump. If you have any questions, before announcing your effort, let me know, and just to be clear...I will provide more specific guidance based on your cards once I have a base result for each of you to work off of.

[Coffee Warlord]

Jump 1 the mighty Dane will go Average.

[JAG]

Babson - average

[collegesportsfanms]

Average for Schaplowsky. He is saving his all-outs, especially since the first one he used turned out to be worthless anyways.

[path12]

All out for Path.

[cmp]

Average for Ketola

[DavidCorperial]

Average for Ginsberg to start

[Greyfriars Bobby]

Peltonen will go Average on his first attempt.

[ntndeacon]

Average for palmiero

[Breeze]

Guys, I will be running the first jump on Monday morning. If I don't have your effort level I will assume average...

[tarcone]

Tarc is average for 1st jump

[PilotMan]

Honcho all out

[BYU 14]

Chilton all out for first jump

[Simbo Klice]

Average for Rambis Jr.

[britrock88]

Bafou will go with average intensity.

...when will we have an event he's good at?

[thealmighty]

Average.

[Breeze]

Nielsen – in his first attempt...Nielsen start his sprint down the runway, he starts striding out, hits mark and launches himself to the pit. The jump appears to be in the 24’ long range, but the white flag is up and it won’t matter, that’s a foul…Need to record a score

Babson – starts his sprint down the runway, and he’s flying like he did in the 100 Meters, must still have some adrenalin going. He hits mark, jumps and sores through the air…this is a long one. He lands and he’s out around the 26’ mark. We’ll have to wait on the measurement to be sure…and it is 26’ 1”. In the average column - you have a 26' 3" result on 31, which is a relatively high probability roll, but that is the only result better than your current distance. In the allout column, I count 12 of the 18 good results that are higher.

Schaplowsky – the big Pol takes his turn, his launch is good, no flag. The result…after the measurement appears to be a solid effort 24’ 3”. This distance is looks to be slightly lower than the average result in the average column. There are still quite a few results better if you stay average. Almost the entire allout column is better, if you can get a good result.

Path – Path stares down the runway…visualizing his effort…now he off, it’s clear he’s going hard on this one. He nails the board, and he’s flying down through the pit. He hits the sand, and that looks like a good jump – and it is, he measures in at 25’ 5”. Average column is maxed out…you hit the highest distance on the rare result outlined in the preview. In allout about half of the good results are better than your current distance

Ketola – he get a good head of steam going down the runway…he heads to the board, and he…have skips off of it. He fouled and he knew it, so he pulled up rather than risk and injury. - Need to record a score

Ginsberg – had a solid approach to the board, launches and he’s a bit early off the front end of the board, but it is a solid jump and his result is 23’ 4”. I count only 9 of the 24 good results in the average column lower, so still a bunch of room for improvement here. In allout almost the entire column in better. In fact you'd be hard pressed to get a good result and not do better.

Peltonen – his approach looks really good, strides hits the blocks good, trajectory is good and jump is good to. Final measurement 24’ 10”. I only show two results better...both are 25' or better and both are on low probability rolls. In the allout column 12 of the 18 are better, including some results in the 26' range.

Palmiero – Palmiero races down the runway, his steps are off, he tries to stagger them but he’s over the line. The jump won’t count, not that it was a good one anyway…Need to record a score

Rambis Jr. – His approach and jump look very good…technique was solid, effort good and the resulting jump is 24’ 6”…that’s a good start. I still show 10 results better in the average column…5 are in the teens, 4 are in the 20s and 1 on 31. In allout 13 of the 18 good results are better

Bafou – Runs, plants, jumps and that isn’t a particularly good effort. I’ve seen him do much better in practice…23’ 4”. About dead on the average result for the column, so still a bunch of improvement available in that column. If you get a good result in allout you’d be hard pressed to get a shorter distance.

Mighty - has a nice fast approach, the plant appears clean, and it’s a textbook angle…jump is a little sloppy, but the result is still a very strong 25’ 5”. 5 results in the average column are better, most in the low proability teens. In allout 14 of the 18 are still better.

Honcho – appears determined do overcome his poor result in the 100 meters as he really gets his speed up going down the run way. He plants jumps, and it’s in the 25’ range…but the white flag has been raised, it appears his toe was over the line. Foul. Need to record a score

Chilton – really gets the speed up down the runway, he’s going after this first jump. The plant and take off are clean, and the result – 25’ 8”… The only result better in the average column is the high result 26’3” on 31 (good). In allout, 10 of the 18 good results are better, most are in the low probability teens

Jordan – everything on the attempt was good, except the toe was over the line…foul need to record a score

Llyw – after watching Jordan’s attempt, Llyw basically duplicated it – similar approach and distance but toe was also over the line. need to record a score

[Breeze]

Event 2 - Long Jump Standings (after jump 1)

Babson		26’ 1”
Chilton		25’ 8”
Mighty		25’ 5”
Path		25’ 5”
Peltonen	24’ 10”
Rambis Jr.	24’ 6”
Schaplowsky	24’ 3”
Ginsberg	23’ 4”
Bafou		23’ 4”
Nielsen		NS
Ketola		NS
Honcho		NS
Jordan		NS
Llyw		NS
Palmeiro        NS

[Breeze]

Event 2 - Long Jump - Player Announcements

I'm not sure we'll get all the player announcements for jump two in time for me to run the jumps and post results, but you can state your plan for the second jump now.

[Breeze]

General Update

All, I got a PM question about attempts and I want to take a second to try and clarify my earlier post about fatigue.

Basically, with every field event you get multiple chances for a result. 3 jumps in the long jump, 3 throws in shot putt, javelin, and discuss. The high jump and the pole vault you continue to jump until you get 3 consecutive misses or you elect to stop. From a fatigue perspective you are allowed 7 without penalty. However, for every jump/throw you skip in the other field events with multiple opportunities, you will gain another jump attempt in the high jump or pole vault. Moreover, if you save a significant number of attempts, you could be granted another allout effort in either the 400, 1500 or javelin (javelin because it would take quite a few extra attempts to get an allout in the 1500 and if you have saved attempts and won't have enough to use in the 1500 the extra rest will allow for an allout attempt in the javelin so you can use that extra energy you strategically conserved earier in the meet).

Hope that makes enough since you get how to plan your strategy.

[DavidCorperial]

All Out for jump number 2 for Ginsberg

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Breeze

General Update

All, I got a PM question about attempts and I want to take a second to try and clarify my earlier post about fatigue.

Basically, with every field event you get multiple chances for a result. 3 jumps in the long jump, 3 throws in shot putt, javelin, and discuss. The high jump and the pole vault you continue to jump until you get 3 consecutive misses or you elect to stop. From a fatigue perspective you are allowed 7 without penalty. However, for every jump/throw you skip in the other field events with multiple opportunities, you will gain another jump attempt in the high jump or pole vault. Moreover, if you save a significant number of attempts, you could be granted another allout effort in either the 400, 1500 or javelin (javelin because it would take quite a few extra attempts to get an allout in the 1500 and if you have saved attempts and won't have enough to use in the 1500 the extra rest will allow for an allout attempt in the javelin so you can use that extra energy you strategically conserved earier in the meet).

Hope that makes enough since you get how to plan your strategy.

So how does that play out with the effort points that you PM'd us each before we began?

[PilotMan]

Ack, the bad luck continues.

I guess I'll go Avg on effort #2.

[JAG]

Babson will skip jump #2

[Coffee Warlord]

Shit. Average again.

[Breeze]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

So how does that play out with the effort points that you PM'd us each before we began?

It doesn't yet. the only time effort points would come into play is if you elect not to use you extra jumps in the high jump or pole vault. At that point...if you are 2 jumps/throws under your total on day 1...you will get 1 extra effort point that you can use in the 400, or you can save your 2 extra jumps for the pole vault the next day. If you are 4 jumps/throws under you may get 1 more effort point for the 1500. If you are 2 jump/throws under on your last throw in the javelin, so you can't get to 4 total under required for the 1500, then you may go allout in the last javelin throw without using one of your effort points.

[cmp]

Average for the pride of Finland, Paavo Ketola

[chesapeake]

Average for Llyw for jump 2.

[Simbo Klice]

With a result down, Rambis will try an all out jump.

[path12]

Path will skip the second/third attempts.

[ntndeacon]

Average for Palmiero

[Breeze]

some very interesting results already in jump 2...

[Greyfriars Bobby]

Peltonen's going to go for it on his second attempt. All Out.

[tarcone]

Average for Jordan

[Breeze]

Guys, I'm gong on vacation...so this will be quiet for a little over a week. Don't give up on it...we will resume events on Wednesday 8/5...

[PilotMan]

Awesome. Where are you going? We are leaving Wednesday and coming back Monday, so your timing is perfect.

[britrock88]

All-out for Bafou.

[thealmighty]

All out for Al on attempt 2.

[Breeze]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Awesome. Where are you going? We are leaving Wednesday and coming back Monday, so your timing is perfect.

Hey PilotMan,

We just headed to a lake in the North Georgia moutains. Special place to me, as my family had a cabun on that lake when I was in 4th and 5th grade and I spent my entire Summer up there for those years.

Breeze

[Breeze]

I still show:

Rambis Jr
Schaplowsky
Chilton

as needing to get their effort level in...will allow some time given I put this on hold for vacation, but will post results tomorrow morning regardless.

[collegesportsfanms]

Just go average for Schaplowsky

[Simbo Klice]

I'm up there- all out for Rambis Jr.

[BYU 14]

Chilton all out for jump 2

[Breeze]

Event 2 - Long Jump - Jump 2 Results

Babson – Waves off his second attempt…decides rest may be his best option at this point.

Honcho – Fouled on his first attempt, so really needs to score here…He’s off…looks good coming down the runway. Hit’s launches, and the flag is up again. He’s fouled for a second time…now he’ll go into the 3rd jump needing a good jump just to record a score in the event. And the bad luck continues to continue…do you go conservative to insure a score, albeit likely a poor one, or do you roll the dice and go average again, hoping to get something legal[/b]

Ginsberg – Clearly putting more effort into his second jump…Ginsberg flys down the runway, and he walks out of the jump…his steps were off, he’d have fouled for sure, so he just walked through the effort to save himself for his last attempt – Foul Status stays the same

Nielsen – Hoping to avoid heading into the final jump without a score, goes through his routine, executes his jump and lands 26’ 3” into the pit. Very nice result In the average column there are still 6 results better, including a few that are several inches longer. In the allout column 10 of the 18 are better with most being in the 27’ range (but most are low probability rolls)

Ketola – Looking to follow Nielsen’s lead, by overcoming a foul on the first attempt with a big jump on the second. The speed is really good down the runway, solid plant, and leap. This looks like he completely imitated Nielsen. In fact, it looks like the distance is almost the same as well. Final measurement – 26’ 6”… Only 4 jumps higher in the average column…but they really aren’t in bad spots (38, 30, 28, & 22). In the allout column, 9 of the 18 are higher, including the huge 28’ 3” result.

Rambis Jr. – Appears that he’s going hard after this attempt…he’s really pushing himself down the runway, he hits the board and screams – and that doesn’t sound like an effort scream. Watching his jump also indicates something is clearly wrong. He lands in a heap, and is helped out of the pit. As they are walking him away, he appears to be grabbing his hamstring…the resulting jump was also a foul. So you have been injuried…this injury will impact your results moving forward. The doctors have reported this injury is a second stage pull, meaning you will be limited in what you can expect from here on out.

Llyw – Heads down the runway…and he jumps, but again his steps are off and he’s about a half a foot over the board. That leaves the defending champ with only 1 jump left to score in this event. Like Honcho, do you go conservative to get a score or average and hold your breath?

Palmiero – trying to avoid the double foul situation Llyw is in, takes his turn. There is no flag on the leap, and the result is a pretty good 25’ 2” Heading into the last jump I show 12 results still better than your current one in the average column, including a couple in high probability spots. I also show 13 of the 18 allout results are better, but many are in the lower probability rolls

Peltonen – looking to improve on his 24’ 10” jump, which had him in 5th place after round 1, but he has seen his effort bested by several jumpers already in round 2. Down the runway he goes…he leaps, and this one looks better, he drops down in the sand and it looks like he’s about a foot further this time…the measurement is in, and he records a25’ 8” result. There is no result in the average column that will beat this score. In the allout column, I count only 5 better results, 2 of which are only 1” longer.

Jordan – runs, jumps, lands and it looks like he’s continued the string of strong results in this round. His distance is measured at 25’ 7”, a good result that will keep him in the thick of things, with 1 jump remaining. I count 7 results better in the average column, and 12 of the 18 good results better in the allout.

Bafou – looking to improve on his first jump, Bafou appears to be putting much more effort into his second go around. He’s running hard down the path, hits the board, and jumps…landing around the 24’ mark, so it looks like it will be an improvement. And he official distance is dead on 24’. 5 jumps better in the average column, including two in the 30s, and results on 23 and 24. 8 results are still better in the allout column

Mighty – also looking to improve on his first jump, Mighty is going hard after the second attempt. Everything looked great and he landed in the pit beyond the 26’ mark, but his toe was just over the board so it’s not going to count. In the same situation as you were coming into jump 2

Schaplowsky – on his second attempt his timing looked off and he only half jumped into the pit, knowing he had fouled. In the same situation as you were coming into jump 2

Chilton – after a very strong 25’ 8” result that had him in second after the first round of jumps, Chilton has seen 2 people pass and 1 person tie him in the second round. He’s decided to go for it on the second jump…good speed, clean take off, and a nice jump…and it’s clearly an improvement…measurement is in and he lands at 26’ 4” can’t get better in the average column. There are still 7 results better in the allout column

[Coffee Warlord]

With a jump on the books, we'll burn one of our All Out's on Nielsen and see if we can't get a big one.

[DavidCorperial]

All out for Ginsberg again.