WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, does it make any sense to try and coordinate within the thread who to believe for what roles, at least at the outset? I think that some roles are probably more valuable than others.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

And miss the chance for an actual wolf? Really? Doesn't this move seem a little high risk for a first day play if I was a wolf?

If you're concerned about me getting the option to convert, you have the seer scan me on night 2 or any night after no kill happens. It'll be pretty easy to tell if I've converted. I mean really, for me, the only way to really gain from this play is to get a wolf out of the deal and turn villager. Any other play will get me killed pretty quick.

In this case knowing all the remaining wolves = conversion, for all intents and purposes. You'd be playing for their team, winning with them, and, most importantly, voting with them. And we would have no way to know which choice you took down that path, because you'd still scan clean. Seems dodgy to me.

I'd imagine that under most scenarios you'll have to cough up a name sometime in the next day. Unless Day 1 becomes about something other than this, which would surprise me.

[EagleFan]

I guess I might as well kick off the voting. Since someone calls my standing day one PB vote a wolf play I might as well go this way...

I bet he says this is a wolf play too...

vote Lathum

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Introduction
Cultist
Starting: Will know the identity of 1 starting wolf. Counts as a villager, but wins if he is alive when the wolves win. If attacked by the wolves, he will become converted and become a Vanilla Wolf (this power is lost if the Cultist is believed)
If Believed: Will have two options. If the actual cultist is believed, will PM the GM and either gain knowledge of all remaining wolves and stay the cultist or may choose to renounce the role of cultist and become a Vanilla Villager. If it is not the actual cultist who is believed will gain the knowledge of 1 wolf and have the option of gaining the other starting cultist powers (including winning with the wolves) or not.

Originally Posted by Tyrith

The cultist is very simple, in my opinion. He gives up the wolf. We lynch whoever he tells us. And if that person turns up good, we lynch les D2.

Okay, I reread the rules and I think I understand the Cultist now. If I read them correctly, the actual cultist or someone who claims to be the cultist gains the ability to chose whether or not they win with the wolves or villagers.

I think it would probably be good to lynch a believe cultist at some point (or any person that becomes believed for that matter). Because if I'm interpreting the rules correctly, a wolf gains additional powers if they successfully claim another role (since I seriously doubt a wolf would claim a wolf role).

It probably doesn't make total sense for a wolf to out one of their own, but they might to gain trust from everyone to block a villager from gaining what appears to be the most powerful believe role (since you get one wolf whereas there is no guarantee a believe seer scans a wolf). That said, I'm doubt that would be the wolves' plan this short into the game.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Hmm, does it make any sense to try and coordinate within the thread who to believe for what roles, at least at the outset? I think that some roles are probably more valuable than others.

Potentially. I think we want to somehow engineer a second seer through believing that at least, and probably a second bodyguard. This will require us to have a plan, though, and somehow figure out who we can trust. Or at least distrust the least.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, I think those are pretty high value roles - not sure if we can make an intelligent guess on them in Day 1. And I think we risk putting a target on a "believed seer" if it is in fact a villager, but I guess my initial thoughts on this overall game concept is that we can either gain a big edge early or put ourselves behind early. Assuming something like a 4-1 ratio on Day 1, chances are that we start ahead early.

Also, if we believe a seer reveal, that helps to protect the actual seer from being a target by putting a bullseye on the head of the believed seer.

Anyway, that was my initial thought on how to try and best leverage the rules.

[Racer]

A little more thought, feel free to argue with me.

I think it would be a good idea if we had two or three people claim a role the 1st day, whichever believe role seems to be the most beneficial to the villagers (which actually seems to be the cultist at the moment). This way, we have another vote to add to everyone's record which should make things a bit more difficult for the wolves.

By having a believed cultist, we could get a wolf on day two (or three at worst) and could lynch the believed cultist later to be safe (in the case it's a wolf giving up a wolf). Basically, we'd probably be taking out one wolf at the expense of one villager.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Tyrith, I think those are pretty high value roles - not sure if we can make an intelligent guess on them in Day 1. And I think we risk putting a target on a "believed seer" if it is in fact a villager, but I guess my initial thoughts on this overall game concept is that we can either gain a big edge early or put ourselves behind early. Assuming something like a 4-1 ratio on Day 1, chances are that we start ahead early.

Also, if we believe a seer reveal, that helps to protect the actual seer from being a target by putting a bullseye on the head of the believed seer.

Anyway, that was my initial thought on how to try and best leverage the rules.

Well, I figured we'd wait a day or two. One way or another we're probably going to have to deal with this les mess, and there's no reason to rush into a decision about how to spend our believe today. So my probable suggestion for today would be to play it conservative.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Racer

A little more thought, feel free to argue with me.

I think it would be a good idea if we had two or three people claim a role the 1st day, whichever believe role seems to be the most beneficial to the villagers (which actually seems to be the cultist at the moment). This way, we have another vote to add to everyone's record which should make things a bit more difficult for the wolves.

By having a believed cultist, we could get a wolf on day two (or three at worst) and could lynch the believed cultist later to be safe (in the case it's a wolf giving up a wolf). Basically, we'd probably be taking out one wolf at the expense of one villager.

Yea...in all seriousness I am the duke.

[EagleFan]

Believing a major village role day one would not be good. (accidentally handing it over the wolves could be a major setback)

Now believing the brutal wolf is another story.




(I know, odd smilie choice but it was the only one I saw that was waving)

[dubb93]

I refuse to claim the cultist as I am like many around here. The power that comes with that role would be too great for me to turn around. If I claimed cultist I would have no choice but to align with the wolves, feed you guys a villager and then myself to waste two days of your time. Like I said, I'm the duke and I refuse to claim any other role.

[EagleFan]

I would be a little cautious about believing a duke at the moment. It would be a good wolf play to try to get believed as the duke. Sit on the power as a member of the CoT, if scanned hope that you get revealed by the seer and now you know the seer plus you can duke away from a lynch the first attempt.

Of course there would be a way to test the duke theory. Force a tie on day one with the real duke (if not the one claiming) votes the opposite of dubb. If the one dubb votes gets lynched than we know he is telling the truth, if the other one does than we have our day two lynch prepared.

[hoopsguy]

EF, I was thinking the same on Dubb and if we have a pretty useless Day 1 then maybe it does make sense to engineer the tie and see if we learn anything.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I would be a little cautious about believing a duke at the moment. It would be a good wolf play to try to get believed as the duke. Sit on the power as a member of the CoT, if scanned hope that you get revealed by the seer and now you know the seer plus you can duke away from a lynch the first attempt.

Of course there would be a way to test the duke theory. Force a tie on day one with the real duke (if not the one claiming) votes the opposite of dubb. If the one dubb votes gets lynched than we know he is telling the truth, if the other one does than we have our day two lynch prepared.

Eh, I'm not a wolf. If anyone else wants to claim duke they are more than welcome. I'm just playing the hand I was dealt.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Eh, I'm not a wolf. If anyone else wants to claim duke they are more than welcome. I'm just playing the hand I was dealt.

Than you should have no reason to dislike my plan.

[dubb93]

I welcome a seer scan as well. It will show I am a villager, although I would prefer it goes elsewhere and atleast has a shot of hitting a wolf.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I welcome a seer scan as well. It will show I am a villager, although I would prefer it goes elsewhere and atleast has a shot of hitting a wolf.

We would not need to waste a seer scan if we go with the tie idea. You would be cleared and the scan goes to good use elsewhere. Or if you are not telling the truth we catch you and the scan still goes elswhere to help us move along.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Believing a major village role day one would not be good. (accidentally handing it over the wolves could be a major setback)

Now believing the brutal wolf is another story.




(I know, odd smilie choice but it was the only one I saw that was waving)

My understanding, is that the actual seer, bodyguard, duke, etc. don't lose their power. Instead, there would be two of them running around (if a vanilla villager claims the role) or a wolf that was more powerful then before. It's a bit of a risk to potentially allow a wolf to gain additional powers, but I'd take that chance any day. We'd be at least have another vote to hold everyone to.

Because like I said earlier, I think the safe thing to do would be to also lynch the believed cultist at some point.

It could be a wolf trying to gain powers and trust or a villager that chose the dark side. If it's a villager that chose the dark side that is also attacked by wolves, then he/she becomes a wolf to my understanding. That would be very bad.

I've never been in a game where conversions and night kills can occur the same night so I suppose we could wait until the 1st time there isn't a night kill to lynch the believe cultist.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Believing a major village role day one would not be good. (accidentally handing it over the wolves could be a major setback)

I don't think you are "handing anything over" other than the chance to double up on a role.

Only one person may be believed for a role at a time. Once believed a person can't be believed for any other role, UNLESS it was not that player's starting role and the actual person with the role dies. If that happens, the player who was believed falsely loses their powers. If a player is believed for a role that is not their own they will keep their starting powers, unless otherwise specified.

Once the person with a particular role dies that role may no longer be claimed.

I read that to suggest that if someone claims the seer role, it doesn't impact the existing seer at all, other than potentially giving him someone to scan on the first night.

If the fake seer is offed, then it has provided additional protection for the real seer. If the real seer is offed, then the person who claimed the power loses the role as they have been exposed.

Am I missing something on the overall risk management here? I'm this close to just claiming seer because I think it is a really strong play for the village.

F' it - I'm officially claiming to be the seer. I think the reasons stated above present a very compelling reason to believe me.

[ntndeacon]

I am also not a big fan of believing anyone on this day. There are sure advantages to us if we the forces of honesty get those roles (even if it means going against our heritage of always truthfulness.) As someone else mentioned, geting a believed Brutal wolf would be a coupe as would getting a believed seer (if for no other reason to make the darn liars waste a day or so)

[dubb93]

Believe Hoops as seer

Atleast Hoops gets it unlike EF.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, if I claim to be the seer, and I'm believed, then die a day later the seer role is available for someone else to claim again and continues to be available until the "real" seer dies, right?

[EagleFan]

You are handing something over if you believe seer without any clue if you are handing it to a wolf. If the believed seer is a wolf and starts "clearing" people that is handing something over, it's handing trust over to an unknown. At least waiting can allow a pattern to develop.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I don't think you are "handing anything over" other than the chance to double up on a role.



I read that to suggest that if someone claims the seer role, it doesn't impact the existing seer at all, other than potentially giving him someone to scan on the first night.

If the fake seer is offed, then it has provided additional protection for the real seer. If the real seer is offed, then the person who claimed the power loses the role as they have been exposed.

Am I missing something on the overall risk management here? I'm this close to just claiming seer because I think it is a really strong play for the village.

F' it - I'm officially claiming to be the seer. I think the reasons stated above present a very compelling reason to believe me.

Ugh, I think the best play to make on day one would be for a couple of people to claim the cultist on day one (since that role actually gives you one wolf). That's a nice one time role.

With the believe seer, you actually have to successfully scan a wolf to get a wolf. Also, if the actual seer dies, then that person loses their role too. If a wolf claims this role, we gain nothing. We should lynch a claimed cultist anyways (in case they decide to be bad) at some point. Either the claimed cultist or the person they exposed as a wolf should be a wolf since it would be stupid for someone to false reveal a wolf as a non-wolf.

Much more advantage to claim the cultist on day one in my opinion and someone else claim the seer on day two.

I'm officially claiming to be the cultist.

[ntndeacon]

I hope the real seer checks on Hoops as well

[EagleFan]

I get it, I get that you sure aren't too committed to being the duke if you are afraid to let the idea of a tie vote test it out.

[USFLTecmo]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

You are handing something over if you believe seer without any clue if you are handing it to a wolf. If the believed seer is a wolf and starts "clearing" people that is handing something over, it's handing trust over to an unknown. At least waiting can allow a pattern to develop.

Yes. This.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I get it, I get that you sure aren't too committed to being the duke if you are afraid to let the idea of a tie vote test it out.

Maybe I'm really the brutal wolf.

[hoopsguy]

EF, if I'm believed then the seer can scan me tonight. I'm frequently an early scan target anyway.

The only wolf who would think of claiming this role would be the cunning wolf in an attempt to block the village from getting two scans. I'm not the cunning wolf, so I know that I'm heading this off at the pass. Well, at least initially, that certainly is an option for the next person claiming this role.

But me saying I'm not the cunning wolf, or a wolf overall, doesn't really mean diddly. Everyone else gets to make up their own mind if I'm playing that type of game and if you think that the risks outweigh the rewards then don't believe me. No hard feelings, but I do want to hear what you think is a better plan for believing people or better roles to believe.

[Tyrith]

I really, really don't want hoops to be the one that gets the seer power. Simply put, I want the initial suggestion of the idea and the selection of who is going to get the power should come from different people, to minimize our chance of getting played.

[EagleFan]

More double talk from him. I say lets play some chicken with his claims. If he is who he says than he is safe.

unvote Lathum

vote dubb

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I hope the real seer checks on Hoops as well

I would like to see this as well.

Hoops, maybe I'm wrong here, but I don't believe that we should be swapping any roles around until day 2, when we can at least have gotten one scan under our belts to see what is going on.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Racer

Ugh, I think the best play to make on day one would be for a couple of people to claim the cultist on day one (since that role actually gives you one wolf). That's a nice one time role.

With the believe seer, you actually have to successfully scan a wolf to get a wolf. Also, if the actual seer dies, then that person loses their role too. If a wolf claims this role, we gain nothing. We should lynch a claimed cultist anyways (in case they decide to be bad) at some point. Either the claimed cultist or the person they exposed as a wolf should be a wolf since it would be stupid for someone to false reveal a wolf as a non-wolf.

Much more advantage to claim the cultist on day one in my opinion and someone else claim the seer on day two.

I'm officially claiming to be the cultist.

The cultist has risks associated with it, in that the person can choose to play for the wolf team. The last thing we need is two cultists in this game, both the starting one and the one that we elect.

I won't suggest cultist because I probably would do the same thing that Dubb already outlined. And I'm pretty sure that many of the long-time players would do that as well.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Racer

I'm officially claiming to be the cultist.

I'm the cultist...

Why not just believe me instead?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I would like to see this as well.

Hoops, maybe I'm wrong here, but I don't believe that we should be swapping any roles around until day 2, when we can at least have gotten one scan under our belts to see what is going on.

The seer almost undoubtedly isn't going to reveal on day 2. On day two more than likely all we will have is two dead villagers and all the wolves still alive, thus a great shot of handing these roles to the wolves.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

I really, really don't want hoops to be the one that gets the seer power. Simply put, I want the initial suggestion of the idea and the selection of who is going to get the power should come from different people, to minimize our chance of getting played.

Thinking about this, I agree. It would probably not be a good idea for people to believe Hoops, me, or the other dude that have claimed a role so far.

[EagleFan]

Engineer the tie, we'll find out if he is on the level. If he is lying the real duke needs to vote for him. We'll have a productive day one vote at that point.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

EF, if I'm believed then the seer can scan me tonight. I'm frequently an early scan target anyway.

The only wolf who would think of claiming this role would be the cunning wolf in an attempt to block the village from getting two scans. I'm not the cunning wolf, so I know that I'm heading this off at the pass. Well, at least initially, that certainly is an option for the next person claiming this role.

But me saying I'm not the cunning wolf, or a wolf overall, doesn't really mean diddly. Everyone else gets to make up their own mind if I'm playing that type of game and if you think that the risks outweigh the rewards then don't believe me. No hard feelings, but I do want to hear what you think is a better plan for believing people or better roles to believe.

I think your plan is sound. I just don't trust you to be the executor of the plan, because you're too good at weird plans like this. It just seems to me there are a lot of ways we get sucked into one of those hoops mind games, and those are just losing propositions.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

More double talk from him. I say lets play some chicken with his claims. If he is who he says than he is safe.

unvote Lathum

vote dubb

I don't think you get this game. HINT: Read the name of the game.

[dubb93]

I find it funny EF is going on a crusade against me when nearly every player who has checked in other than him has claimed a role at this point.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by dubb93

The seer almost undoubtedly isn't going to reveal on day 2. On day two more than likely all we will have is two dead villagers and all the wolves still alive, thus a great shot of handing these roles to the wolves.

True, so why are we even trying to move roles around? Why not let the seer/duke/bg play it cool and leave them be. Once we publicly believe somebody, our UTR roled players lose their ability and everyone will publicly know who has each role.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

I'm the cultist...

Why not just believe me instead?

We should have multiple people claim the same role so that way it is more difficult for the wolves to hide.

It would be like having a unanimous lynch on the 1st day. Choosing someone to believe is basically like voting for someone to lynch.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

True, so why are we even trying to move roles around? Why not let the seer/duke/bg play it cool and leave them be. Once we publicly believe somebody, our UTR roled players lose their ability and everyone will publicly know who has each role.

No the actual roled players do not lose their ability. You'd have two of them running around.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Engineer the tie, we'll find out if he is on the level. If he is lying the real duke needs to vote for him. We'll have a productive day one vote at that point.

The question is, who are we engineering a tie with?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I hope the real seer checks on Hoops as well

I'm fine with that, but I would rather he check on me as a second seer. If I'm a villager and he is someone that he wants to have the second seer role then how is he supposed to validate me in the thread without tipping his hand?

I'm giving the seer a good playbook to execute for early in the game if I'm elected. He scans me, then he knows that he can trust my scans.

The risk in scanning me would be if I'm the nightkill. Then he isn't getting either a wolf or someone who extends the COT. But I'll leave that decision up to the seer (assuming I'm not the actual seer and creating a big stir in the thread to mask my true role, that is).

Heck, since I'm under the impression that I'll have a pretty short lifetime in the role I'll just publish my scans every morning for as long as I'm left alone at night. If I'm not finding wolves fast enough, then you have the choice to just lynch me because you think I pulled some kind of daring wolf move.

Honestly, help me understand where the upside is for me to do this as a wolf. I think it is potentially huge +EV for the village, which is why I'm volunteering for something that probably knocks me out of the game earlier than normal.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Racer

We should have multiple people claim the same role so that way it is more difficult for the wolves to hide.

It would be like having a unanimous lynch on the 1st day. Choosing someone to believe is basically like voting for someone to lynch.

I suppose...though I'm not sure you'd get the same type of information out of it...But I'm game.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Once we publicly believe somebody, our UTR roled players lose their ability and everyone will publicly know who has each role.

Wrong. If we believe a seer we have both the real seer AND the believed seer at that point. Same for the other roles.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I find it funny EF is going on a crusade against me when nearly every player who has checked in other than him has claimed a role at this point.

You are the only one to keep coming back with the "I really am" claim. If that is true than lets see this through to the end.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

You are the only one to keep coming back with the "I really am" claim. If that is true than lets see this through to the end.

I believe Ler has been doing the same with the cultist.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

No the actual roled players do not lose their ability. You'd have two of them running around.

Ahhh, then I think I'm changing my mind on this. I distrust Hoops as much as any of you but if he becomes a second seer, we keep the role with someone else too, AND he is a villager, we're in good shape. If he's a wolf, we'll lynch him if he provides bad info. Where is the problem that I'm missing?