8.8 magnitude Earthquake in Japan

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by cartman

Chernobyl part two

So no mushroom cloud, just irradiated, death zone, containment area for the next 30+ years?

[oykib]

The news about a possible meltdown keeps getting worse. It's looking more and more like they know there's been a meltdown and are just trying to prevent a panic.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So no mushroom cloud, just irradiated, death zone, containment area for the next 30+ years?

Not really. The Japenese are much better equipped to deal with this than the USSR was, on top of the facility being much safer made. Not that it is a good thing. It basically means a loss of control of the fuel, and damage has to be brought under control to limit the damage and spread of contamination. It will not be like Chernobyl, where they basically sent people with shovels and no training out to cover up radioactive materials till everbody started dropping dead.

[King of New York]

The best piece that I've seen about what (might) be happening at the damaged reactor is here:

BBC News - Uncertainty surrounds Japan's nuclear picture

[Warhammer]

That article from the BBC explains things fairly well.

This is the problem as I see it. Once things get out of whack in the vessel and the pumps stop turning, you are going to get a massive amount of steam in the reactor vessel. Also, once the pumps get hot, you're not going to be able to turn them (the metal expands and the impeller will rub against the body of the pump, etc.). If things get hot enough, the seals will fail which will cause the steam to escape the pump along the shaft. Essentially, once the backup systems fail, it would be a bitch to get things back up and running.

It would be interesting to know what happened on the coolant loop. Which set of pumps failed?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

That article from the BBC explains things fairly well.

This is the problem as I see it. Once things get out of whack in the vessel and the pumps stop turning, you are going to get a massive amount of steam in the reactor vessel. Also, once the pumps get hot, you're not going to be able to turn them (the metal expands and the impeller will rub against the body of the pump, etc.). If things get hot enough, the seals will fail which will cause the steam to escape the pump along the shaft. Essentially, once the backup systems fail, it would be a bitch to get things back up and running.

It would be interesting to know what happened on the coolant loop. Which set of pumps failed?

The report now is that Plant 1 and possibily plant 3 have melted down, but they are not sure. That doesn't sound reassuring. What does sound reassuring is that radiation still seems to be contained, so that means fuel rods melted but haven't broken free.

[SackAttack]

The BBC article says they don't know why the backups cut out, but my understanding was they got swamped by the tsunami.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

The BBC article says they don't know why the backups cut out, but my understanding was they got swamped by the tsunami.

My wife & I were talking about that, as I noticed the same thing you did. I'm not sure whether they've backed away from that explanation or if had just escaped the BBC writer.

[CrimsonFox]

[cartman]

The Nikkei index has plunged almost 13% after the news of the latest explosions at the Fukushima nuclear power plan. Evidently the fuel rods are completely exposed to air at this point, and a core meltdown is extremely likely.

The last two trading days have been the worst for the Nikkei since the global crash in 1987.

[stevew]

I know they don't want to induce panic, but it certainly seems like they've been dramatically understating how awful this problem is going to be. From what I understood a few days ago, they were supposedly dealing with a problematic reaction of merely about 6 percent of the reactor capability, adnd this no longer seems to be the case.

[Peregrine]

Have you guys seen this? Absolute insanity.

ABC News - Japan Earthquake: before and after

[SackAttack]

I showed that to my dad, Peregrine, and he responded with this:

BBC News - Japan earthquake: Footage of moment tsunami hit

[RainMaker]

Absolutely incredible. It's making those cars look like toys.

[cartman]

They've now halted all containment activities and have ordered the remaining personnel to evacuate from Fukushima, stating that the spike in radiation levels makes it unsafe for them to continue.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

There saying now that it actually destroyed the building housing Reactor 1. That makes sense if you watch the video. It looks on par with a video of what a "bunker buster" bomb does to a building. It was a massive explosion. The say the core is still in tact, which is just amazing. How this is handled (and I think in the end it will be handled well) is going to determine the future of nuclear energy.

Yeah, stupid things are said on the internet all the time, but this was an all time level of stupid. This has not been handled well at all, and is going to set nuclear energy back for a long time. If you aren't paying attention, you really should. Three reactors (all three that were running) likely in melt-down. All three have had explosions and radioactive releases. Another that wasn't even operating has caught fire THREE times, no knows why or how bad because the radioacivity is so high no one will go get close enough to see or even put it out. And now the 50 workers that were all that were left there have gone because the radioacivity levels are too high to stay.

How in the hot heck has it gotten to this point? Why is there no international oversight units there handling this by now and only the utility company (with a shoddy track record) the only ones doing anything? I mean there are now talking about dropping water from freaking helecopters on to the plants as the only way to keep water on the rods. How the heck is that going to work?

This is just not looking good at all.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

...

This is just not looking good at all.

Pretty much what you said. I'm wondering how much thought went into their planning for natural disasters. I mean the place in right on the coast, how much do you have to imagine a scenario where a tsunami takes out your backup diesel generators? Then you only have four to eight hours backup in the very best case scenario.

Energy Industry...How much more of a wake up call did you need beyond the Deepwater Horizon? Have a game plan already.

[bhlloy]

This is the same situation as the BP oil leak for me. When the potential for life-altering, massive disaster is so great, how are you not thinking three or four scenarios (at least) down the line and how are you not ensuring that your backup systems that are preventing said disaster will actually work?

Redundancy and safety might cost money and reduce profitability but when the alternative is potentially destroying an entire regions economy (and presumably costing your company billions in fines, lost revenue and reputation) is it really that hard a decision?

[sterlingice]

You just pocket the money (contingency plans cost millions if not billions) and hope nothing happens, if you're the CEO and other high-level executives of a company. Tony Heyward got millions just to go away, I'm sure, so where's the incentive? I mean, sad to say, but it's as simple as "spend tons of money on contingency plans vs pocket millions in bonuses to you and stockholders and hope nothing goes wrong"- there's an inherent built-in incentive to not fix the problem, which is again, why stringent regulation is necessary in something like this.

To make it seem slightly less criminally negligent, you can see the formula (cost of contingency) * (likelihood of disaster) = (risk cost). It's the same problem as in the financial markets- that likelihood of disaster was zeroed out or vastly underestimated so the risk didn't seem that great.

SI

[fantom1979]

After hearing the US energy company reps on TV the last couple of days, I can understand completely how this happens. I don't know how many times I have heard them say that "something like this could never happen here". Ummm ok.

[wade moore]

Definitely trying to pay attention to this...

I live within 40 miles of a nuclear power plant. Not as bad as before where I lived so close that I had to keep the iodine pills handy, but still..

[wade moore]

er, my math is off.

As the crow flies it's more like 20 miles.

[Neon_Chaos]

The Fukushima Fifty are modern-day heroes.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

This is the same situation as the BP oil leak for me. When the potential for life-altering, massive disaster is so great, how are you not thinking three or four scenarios (at least) down the line and how are you not ensuring that your backup systems that are preventing said disaster will actually work?

Redundancy and safety might cost money and reduce profitability but when the alternative is potentially destroying an entire regions economy (and presumably costing your company billions in fines, lost revenue and reputation) is it really that hard a decision?

I could be wrong...but I think this sounds like systemic incompetence like I've seen in other industries.

Because "management" is much higher paid and we promote the truly bright & talented into roles where they are no longer actively entrenched in the details of things. And most of these said bright & talented people enjoy the lifestyle afforded to them by moving up the ladder & earning more money rather than doing the detailed/hands on work that they are really exceptional at doing.

Probably not always the case, and may not be applicable here, but just sounds awfully familiar to me. Sounds like the old "nobody has time to understand the details so we rely on "Bill" over there who can barely get his pants on straight". But "Bill" says it works so...it must work.

[fantom1979]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

The Fukushima Fifty are modern-day heroes.

This.


These guys better get some 100ft statues and they need to be well compensated (aka best health care available for life, families given monthly checks, etc).

[whomario]

this whole thing is just beyond terrible and still pretty much incomprehensible in it´s magnitude ...

Originally Posted by wade moore

Definitely trying to pay attention to this...

I live within 40 miles of a nuclear power plant. Not as bad as before where I lived so close that I had to keep the iodine pills handy, but still..

I personally live and work about 5 miles from one since 2008 ... Honestly didn´t think about it much before. Said Nuclear Plant was also the sight of a very influential/well-known german youth-book where the Plant was sight of a nuclear desaster, so that was a little spooky.

[GrantDawg]

You want to know the level of these heroes? They had to leave the plant for an hour, but returned. Why? They left because of the rescriction of how much radiation they can legally be exposed to. The government waived the restrictions and they willingly returned. These men and women may be dead of cancer in ten years, but they are willing to risk that to try to save as many as they can. I don't think much of the company they are working for, but they are heroes for sure.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by whomario

this whole thing is just beyond terrible and still pretty much incomprehensible in it´s magnitude ...



I personally live and work about 5 miles from one since 2008 ... Honestly didn´t think about it much before. Said Nuclear Plant was also the sight of a very influential/well-known german youth-book where the Plant was sight of a nuclear desaster, so that was a little spooky.

Yup, same here - I actually never went and got the Iodine pills - I was just supposed to.

[Ryan S]

Originally Posted by fantom1979

After hearing the US energy company reps on TV the last couple of days, I can understand completely how this happens. I don't know how many times I have heard them say that "something like this could never happen here". Ummm ok.

For most of the country that is true. It was the combination of one of the largest earthquakes in recorded history, followed by a tsunami that caused the problem.

Anywhere further away from the coast in the USA does not need to worry about the threat of a tsunami, and only a small part of the the country realistically needs to worry about earthquakes on this scale, and even then, you are probably talking about a once a century quake.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Ryan S

For most of the country that is true. It was the combination of one of the largest earthquakes in recorded history, followed by a tsunami that caused the problem.

Anywhere further away from the coast in the USA does not need to worry about the threat of a tsunami, and only a small part of the the country realistically needs to worry about earthquakes on this scale, and even then, you are probably talking about a once a century quake.

If you are talking about SoCal, all major faultlines in SoCal are on dry land, so a tsunami wouldn't be produced. I know for San Onofre the generators are actually deep inside the mountains at Camp Pendleton, so a 1, 2 punch is unlikely. Unless the mountain tumbles.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, nothing identical to this could happen here. Something totally different on a same level of magnitude... well, we'll get back to you on that

SI

[Ryan S]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Yeah, nothing identical to this could happen here. Something totally different on a same level of magnitude... well, we'll get back to you on that

What else could happen on the same level of magnitude?

[stevew]

It was always my assumption that the government had well thought out and researched reactions to any number of potentially life altering events. After Katrina, BP and now this, I no longer think so.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Ryan S

What else could happen on the same level of magnitude?

How about worse...? Super Volcano of Yellowstone Park!

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by stevew

It was always my assumption that the government had well thought out and researched reactions to any number of potentially life altering events. After Katrina, BP and now this, I no longer think so.

See I assume that the industry does this, with the government as a backstop. The Government backstop came into play with the deepwater horizon. Albeit, the backstop should have been MUCH closer to the plate in terms of regulation and safety requirements.

So far, this whole the whole response seems lacking here at Fukushima. When the place is effectively located on the beach, how difficult is it for someone over the years to say "Hey, why don't we put the backup generators on the roof, just in case?"

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

See I assume that the industry does this, with the government as a backstop. The Government backstop came into play with the deepwater horizon. So far, this whole the whole response seems lacking here at Fukushima. When the place is effectively located on the beach, how difficult is it for someone over the years to say "Hey, why don't we put the backup generators on the roof, just in case?"

Or maybe they do and they are willing to deal with the collateral damage...

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ryan S

What else could happen on the same level of magnitude?

I could see danger particularly from hurricanes- there are a lot of areas threatened by that, floods, some sort of explosion that would take out the backup system, sabotage, or even a simple industrial accident. Heck, the New Madrid fault runs through the middle of the country- it's not as if it's on the coast. I can think of a half dozen possibilities and that's just blue skying.

Now those would all cause varying levels of problems starting at nothing at all (one would think they'd have precautions in advance of a hurricane). But, as stevew said- one hopes there are contingency plans for possible issues but who really knows. And this is especially true if you let those in charge of the place decide for themselves if they are indeed safe.

Again, who would have thought a deep water platform would have issues with the pipe? Well, it's happened before- just not to this magnitude- so anyone surprised now? Again, earthquake in heavy seismic region of Japan. These aren't unexpected events.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

Or maybe they do and they are willing to deal with the collateral damage...

Well, exactly. I think there's a calculated assessment of

(cost of fallout) * (chance of problem) < (cost of dealing with problem)

And, unfortunately, those things are really hard to prove

SI

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

How about worse...? Super Volcano of Yellowstone Park!

That would definitely be worse than what happened in Japan. And there is concern that the lava bubble underneath Yellowstone is on the move.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by Ryan S

For most of the country that is true. It was the combination of one of the largest earthquakes in recorded history, followed by a tsunami that caused the problem.

Anywhere further away from the coast in the USA does not need to worry about the threat of a tsunami, and only a small part of the the country realistically needs to worry about earthquakes on this scale, and even then, you are probably talking about a once a century quake.

I hope this is the conclusion most Americans come to. I hate to sound like a republican talking point...but no more drilling, no nuclear, "clean" coal isn't clean enough...what are we supposed to do realistically? (I'm not a fan of drilling offshore personally)

I'm all for other options but let's be realistic here & work within the way we live today (and not try & adapt everybody to cram into 200 sq ft boxes in high rise buildings). We drive cars...we have a lot of energy-sucking devices in our homes...and we have a lot of people unemployed (primarily in the uneducated/construction sector as well). We need to build our way to energy independence using the technology we have today. If we find better technology later...great, then that will be new things to build & retrofit what we build today.

We need nuclear power plants constructed (not on the coastlines)...we need interconnected regional power grids (to be connected together themselves later)...and we need rechargeable (or mostly rechargeable) cars that plug into the nuclear powered grid. This would go a long way & be a good start to not only reducing our dependency on oil...but also on putting a lot of people to work.

Sorry for derailing...I just see us(or maybe our politicians) taking the Japan nuclear problems and giving it the same bad name as the BP oil mess. Maybe there is some level of negligibility but if so, it should serve as a guideline...not as an example of nuclear power being the wrong thing to do in the next 5-10 years.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, if Yellowstone goes off, we're all dead. Don't worry about that one.

SI

[King of New York]

Two excellent articles from the Economist:

hxxp://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2011/03/post-earthquake_nuclear_crisis

hxxp://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/03/japans_stricken_nuclear_plant

[fantom1979]

I have no problem with maintaining our current nuclear plants or even building some more. I just want to be reassured at someone in the nuclear industry realizes that natural events in this country can cause problems. To hear, "nothing like this can happen here" is naive. Mother nature has proven over and over again that it wins the battle every time.

My biggest concerns are always over the potential problems that no one ever talks about. Everyone knows about hurricanes in the southeast and earthquakes in California, but what about New Madrid? Are we prepared if there was another New Madrid quake like the one in 1811? How about the Cascadia subduction zone? It is estimated have the potiental to create 8.0 to 9.0 earthqukes and large tsunamis. It is estimated that fault goes off every 300 to 600 years and the last large quake was in 1700.

It will never happen, but I would rather hear these nuclear lobbyists talk about the dangers and what they do to counteract them then pretend that there is no danger at all.

[GrantDawg]

It is funny how the head of our nuclear agency can be quite frank about how badly the Japanese goverment is in letting the private company handle this catastophe, but our government just let BP do their thing. But anyway...

The US goverment is telling people our citizens to stay 50 miles away from the plants. The number 4 reactor, where spent fuel rods were basically sitting in the attic swimming pool, are completely exposed and dry. They are going to try now to shoot water at with a fire truck water cannon. They say that the workers are not going to be able to stay in the area more than 3 to five minutes at a time, and they have many, many gallons to fill, and that is if the tank is not so cracked that it will hold water. Of course, there is also a chance of another hydrogen explosion as well. Any volunteers?

[SteveMax58]

Do you mean the Japanese government, Grant?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by SteveMax58

Do you mean the Japanese government, Grant?

? Oh, no, our government is not shooting the water. I imagine Tecmo is with Japanese equipment. The US government is giving the 50 mile warning, though. The Japenese still only says 12 miles.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

? Oh, no, our government is not shooting the water. I imagine Tecmo is with Japanese equipment. The US government is giving the 50 mile warning, though. The Japenese still only says 12 miles.

I see, I was confusing the 2. It was more obvious when I re-read your post.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by SteveMax58

I see, I was confusing the 2. It was more obvious when I re-read your post.

But on a direct of "what are we doing," the US is flying a unmanned Global Hawk over the plant tommorow to get a clearer picture of what is going on inside. We are also flying a jetliner in constant pattern that monitors ariel radiation levels around the plants. It is the same plane we use to monitor North Korean nuke tests. Also, the international nuclear monitors are finally sending someone over (actually their chief) tommorow, but up to this point no one from that body has been there yet. That just seems crazy to me.

Meanwhile, they are dropping water from helecopters on plants 3 and 4 right now, which is sort of like trying to piss on a forest fire but I guess it is something. They are driving in 14 police water cannon trucks to try to do a better job refilling the tanks. The better news is they are trying to run new power lines in to try cobble together some kind of cooling system on site. Who knows how long that might take. Just crazy stuff.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by fantom1979

How about the Cascadia subduction zone? It is estimated have the potiental to create 8.0 to 9.0 earthqukes and large tsunamis. It is estimated that fault goes off every 300 to 600 years and the last large quake was in 1700.

It will never happen, but I would rather hear these nuclear lobbyists talk about the dangers and what they do to counteract them then pretend that there is no danger at all.

The nearest coastal reactors to the Cascadia Subduction Zone would be at the Diablo Canyon Plant which was 2 reactors and is about 400 miles south of the zone's southern most point (the closest in any direction would be the Columbia Generating Station, but at 250 miles inland its not exactly in a tsunami danger zone).

As a comparison on the east coast of Japan there were 20 reactors in Japan at 6 different locations within 400 miles of the epicenter of this earthquake. Of those only the reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi and Daini sites had any problems during this event

An emergency was briefly sounded at the Onegawa facility (which was less than 100 miles from the epicenter) when perimeter radiation sensors picked up higher than normal levels of radiation, but sensors inside the site didn't detect anything and last I read all three reactors at Onegawa were in safe cold shutdown. It is believed the radiation detected came from gas venting at Fukushima Daiichi.

From everything I've heard reported so far it sounds like Japans reactors, even those very close to the epicenter, handled the ground movement of the earthquakes just as they were designed to do. It was the massive tsunami caused the problems.

So is Diablo Canyon as vulnerable to a 9.0 earthquake generated tsunami as the Fukushima plants were? No. Unlike the Fukashima plants which were effectively built at sea level, the Diablo Canyon plant sits on top of a rocky bluff 90 feet above the ocean at high tide. This is almost 3 times higher than the highest tsunami seen in Japan.

Even if the site is somehow swamped, all power was lost at the site and the pumps quit working, Diablo Canyon has a backup system which consists of giant pools of fresh water located in the hills above the plant which would feed water into the reactors through gravity alone.

Of course being located in California Diablo Canyon has other seismic issues to take into consideration. And they do take them into consideration.

Here's their latest report about a new off shore fault they discovered, its potential to create earthquakes,the risks caused by those earthquakes and how those risks compare to NRC safety requirements. Appendix L also has information on how the plant has weathered recent, nearby earthquakes including a magnitude 6.5 centered just 35 miles north of the plant in 2003.

And this isn't the first time they've discovered a new fault near the site. When construction began the USGS told them the nearest faults they had to deal with at this location were only capable of generating magnitude 6.5 earthquakes (the San Andres fault can certainly produce larger quakes, but it is located a fair distance inland from Diablo Canyon) So they built it to handle a nearby 7.0. But after construction was done they found an fault just 10 miles off shore that could potentially generate a 7.1 magnitude earthquake, so they rebuilt the plant (delaying its opening by years) to handle a nearby 7.5

[GrantDawg]

Here is why the Reactor 4 situation caused the head of the US nuclear program such alarm, and is so dire. This is the latest report on from TEPCO:

Reactor No. 4 - Under maintenance when quake struck, fire Tuesday possibly caused by hydrogen explosion at pool holding spent fuel rods, abnormal temperature rise in spent-fuel storage pool, fire observed Wednesday at building housing reactor, pool water level feared receding, renewed nuclear chain reaction feared.

The "renewed chain reaction" is called "re-criticality," and basically means from what I understand that the suckers is in active fusion in the pool, open and unprotected. That is like as bad as it can possibily get in a situation like this. What that will mean in the long run, I don't know. Experts, anyone? Paging the Quicksand super-computer?