What will the outcome be of the mid terms?

[Lathum]

These Virginia numbers for congress are a really bad sign

[Hillary Clinton]

Donald Trump was an illegitimate President, and I intend to challenge the 2016 result when the Supreme Court has a more favorable makeup. I can wait.

[larrymcg421]

Key races on PredictIt right now

PA - Fetterman 55%
GA - Walker 53%
AZ - Kelly 61%
NV - Laxalt 71%
WI - Johnson 85%
OH - Vance 92%
Dem Senate - 37%

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump was an illegitimate President, and I intend to challenge the 2016 result when the Supreme Court has a more favorable makeup. I can wait.

Meet me at the Olive Garden in Vienna, VA. We have some scheming to do. Bring cash, I'm using my Chase Reserve card to rack up some points.

[GrantDawg]

Holy crap. Mrs. Clinton, what is your opinion on trout and giant squid?

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[Hillary Clinton]

That works for me. I have a satanic child sex ring business that I run in a pizza restaurant nearby.

[Hillary Clinton]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Holy crap. Mrs. Clinton, what is your opinion on trout and giant squid?

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I prefer my squid to be collosal. I also admire and relate to trout, because they have to swim against the flow, just like a woman in politics in the United States.

[Brian Swartz]

...

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Hillary Clinton

I prefer my squid to be collosal. I also admire and relate to trout, because they have to swim against the flow, just like a woman in politics in the United States.

How can I fudge a bank statement?

[Hillary Clinton]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

How can I fudge a bank statement?

Honestly, that's probably a question that Bill can answer better than I can.

[sterlingice]

I feel like I just walked into one of those Conan sketches where he is interviewing someone on the TV screen and they replace the mouth to give goofy answers

SI

[GrantDawg]

Is it true that Bill is both cocky and funny?

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[Brian Swartz]

Warnock is under 50% now. 1.5% lead with 52% of the vote in.

This is fine. There is no cause for alarm. I am composed and will not freak out at all.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Is it true that Bill is both cocky and funny?

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"Bill, can you tell us about HornyManiac?"

SI

[Hillary Clinton]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Is it true that Bill is both cocky and funny?

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Bill's definitely cocky, but I don't find him to be very funny.

[Hillary Clinton]

The way that Steve Kornacki touches that big board makes me feel like a lusty young woman again.

[Lathum]

Looks like Beto is done for

[Brian Swartz]

Unfortunately losing and running again generally doesn't go well.

[Lathum]

Walker just took the lead. I think that is the one that is the biggest gut punch. How anyone can vote for him is beyond me.

[GrantDawg]

Good news from a GOP stronghold (Oconee County, Ga.). Walker is underperforming Loeffler by 2 points with 95% of the vote in. If that holds up state wide, it woukd be huge.

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[Hillary Clinton]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Unfortunately losing and running again generally doesn't go well.

Just ask the Detroit Lions.

[Lathum]

scratch that, big dump from Atlanta puts Warnock back up

[Brian Swartz]

Agreed on Walker, but the last update apparently was big for Warnock; up to 51.5% again. In terms of why, it's the same old 'voting for the platform not the candidate' bit.

[larrymcg421]

Warnock back ahead.

STOP THE COUNT

[GrantDawg]

Warnock also out performing his run-off numbers in Dekalb County (really big suburban Atlanta county).

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[GrantDawg]

Beasley is also out performing Biden in rural counties of North Carolina.

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[Brian Swartz]

Sarah Huckabee Sanders is now the governor-elect in Arkansas. That's going to be fun.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Hillary Clinton

Honestly, that's probably a question that Bill can answer better than I can.

How was the sex with jbmagic?

[GrantDawg]

With 58% of the votes in, Warnock and Kemp have almost the exact number of votes.

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[Lathum]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Beasley is also out performing Biden in rural counties of North Carolina.

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If she winds have to assume dems hold the senate

[GrantDawg]

Btw, Abrams actually has more votes than Walker. The third party candidate is pulling 1.8% in the Senate race while the one on the governors race is only getting .6%.

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[larrymcg421]

The NYT needle is down right now. Hard to make sense of the current numbers vs. expectations.

PredictIt still likes Walker.

[Hillary Clinton]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

How was the sex with jbmagic?

ai not good

[GrantDawg]

One analyst just said that Florida had a large shift right compared to 2020, but elsewhere so far the shift is only averaging less than a point.

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[GrantDawg]

It is looking like all but one of those toss-up seats for Incumbent Democrats in Virgina have stayed blue. They just called for Spanbetger.

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[Brian Swartz]

Aaaaand Warnock is back under the 50% mark in Georgia. 71% in.

[Solecismic]

After a lot of bad news for the Democrats over the last month, today so far is looking better than it had. The biggest sign for me so far is the quick call on the Colorado Senate for Bennet.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The biggest sign for me so far is the quick call on the Colorado Senate for Bennet.

I haven't seen it called in several places yet, and no votes listed from Colorado Springs or Pueblo yet, two very red cities. It's highly unlikely that was ever going to be a competitive seat, but O'Dea might be closer than I thought.

edit: NOW it's being called. Like I said, not surprising, but I think the final result is gonna be closer than what I figured.

[larrymcg421]

The NYT needle really likes Walker right now. It has him at 63%

[Brian Swartz]

Does the needle have a 'runoff' option?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Does the needle have a 'runoff' option?

Doesn't look like it. They project Walker to win by 1.8 right now, so it depends on how much the Libertarian will get.

[Brian Swartz]

Super. And Walker re-takes the lead, both of them almost a full percent below the 50% mark. I have no idea where the remaining vote is, but I would bet on runoff at this point.

[larrymcg421]

Here's the needle if anyone wants to follow it...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-forecast.html

It has moved back towards Warnock a little bit. Walker now at 59%

[larrymcg421]

55% now. Crazy!

[GrantDawg]

I am not the needle, but I don't see it. There are large number of metro Atlanta votes yet to come that are goung to go very heavily Warnock.

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[larrymcg421]

I mean, I hope you're right. I'm following the needle because they were the first indicators that Biden could win GA in 2020. That doesn't mean they'll be right again.

[larrymcg421]

FWIW, PredictIt now sees it the same way as you. Warnock is at .58 there

[GrantDawg]

Gwinnett is a very large county and only has 48% reporting. Doughtery is midsized County with only 8% reporting. Fulton, Cobb and Dekalb still have 30+%. Heck my county is less than 50, and it isn't small. They are all heavy Warnock.

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[JPhillips]

I hope we'll eventually see exit polling that shows how GOP women voted. If things stay the way they look now I'd bet a lot of them stayed registered for the GOP but voted to some degree for Dems.

[GrantDawg]

Steve Kornacky is no way predicting but is suggesting that there is a slight possibility the Democrats hold the House. Possibly, maybe.

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