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Old 12-03-2006, 05:40 PM   #101
st.cronin
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Originally Posted by vex View Post
Not really. Arkansas will throttle them.

Oh, ok. Guess I'll do something else that day, then.
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Old 12-03-2006, 05:43 PM   #102
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Sportline appears to be the closest to real-time - they have most of the matchups filled in now-

http://www.sportsline.com/collegefoo...ls/predictions

Just briefly glanced at that page, but I noticed an obvious mistake - it has Miami and Boise State switched.
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Old 12-03-2006, 05:44 PM   #103
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I can't understand how a Michigan fan could be too upset, given that they had their chance to take down Ohio State. I think it's a more reasonable decision to give Florida a crack than to give Michigan another one.

Amen. Michigan had their shot, and they failed.
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Old 12-03-2006, 05:44 PM   #104
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Just briefly glanced at that page, but I noticed an obvious mistake - it has Miami and Boise State switched.

No it doesnt
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Old 12-03-2006, 05:47 PM   #105
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No it doesnt

No, it does.

It says Miami is playing in the MPC Bowl, and has Boise State playing in the Fiesta Bowl. Really, how could they get wrong?
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Old 12-03-2006, 05:52 PM   #106
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What analysis, exactly, would put Michigan ahead of Florida?

Florida has beaten more top 25 teams than Michigan, and is the champion of a conference that has been far superior, top to bottom, to the Big 10.

The only argument for Michigan is the asinine "best lost" theory. A lot of teams have lost to Ohio St - that's not an accomplishment.

Michigan's support comes from Michigan fans, and hardly anywhere else.

Points for Michigan:

All 11 of their wins were convincing (even Ball State, which they led, 31-12 before Carr put in the second string). Florida needed to block two kicks against South Carolina, five other wins by 10 or less.

Their only loss was their closest game, on road to consensus #1 team.

They had a slightly better average opponent and strength of schedule (13th according to Sagarin, compared to 19th for Florida).

They had a much tougher out-of-conference schedule.

They were ranked #2 by the same system going in, it's very rare for a team to drop at this stage without losing.

They didn't have advantage of a bye week during the season.

Florida was not unusually impressive against a relatively poor conference championship opponent.


Points for Florida:

While their overall schedule was slightly weaker (playing the #212 team in the country is a little weird), the top of their schedule was tougher, they played more bowl teams.

Ohio State already beat Michigan.

Michigan isn't even a conference champion.


I think if you're looking for the better team, you pick the rematch on neutral turf. If you're playing politics, you give Florida its turn.

Since the BCS rules only mention avoiding rematches in the minor BCS games, I'd give the vote to Michigan.
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Old 12-03-2006, 05:55 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by st.cronin View Post
No, it does.

It says Miami is playing in the MPC Bowl, and has Boise State playing in the Fiesta Bowl. Really, how could they get wrong?

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Old 12-03-2006, 05:57 PM   #108
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The stated goal of the BCS is to get the best 2 teams there - if that's the case, it has to be Michigan. Selecting Florida is only based on "they had their shot" logic does not fit in with the stated goal.

Last edited by Crapshoot : 12-03-2006 at 05:57 PM.
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Old 12-03-2006, 05:57 PM   #109
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picking florida because michigan "already had its chance" is like choosing han solo to battle darth vader because luke "already had his chance" and got his hand cut off. just let michigan get a cybernetic hand for their defense, and run it again. no one else has a chance.
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Old 12-03-2006, 06:08 PM   #110
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The stated goal of the BCS is to get the best 2 teams there - if that's the case, it has to be Michigan. Selecting Florida is only based on "they had their shot" logic does not fit in with the stated goal.

The problem is that isn't THE stated goal, the goal shifts between that and the most deserving team(best season). The BCS would work a whole lot better if we could reach a general agreement about what it was truly working towards when records are equal, best team or best season. But alas, that debate to finally have that debate once and for all never happens.
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Old 12-03-2006, 06:08 PM   #111
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Oh, ok. Guess I'll do something else that day, then.

Glad to help.
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Old 12-03-2006, 06:12 PM   #112
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The stated goal of the BCS is to get the best 2 teams there - if that's the case, it has to be Michigan. Selecting Florida is only based on "they had their shot" logic does not fit in with the stated goal.

The goal is to match the two top rated teams in the BCS championship, not the best 2.
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Old 12-03-2006, 06:20 PM   #113
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The stated goal of the BCS is to get the best 2 teams there - if that's the case, it has to be Michigan. Selecting Florida is only based on "they had their shot" logic does not fit in with the stated goal.

If this was true, we wouldn't automatically eliminate 2 and 3 loss teams from consideration. A team that had a couple of early season losses and then improved isn't necessarily "worse" than a team that didn't.
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Old 12-03-2006, 06:22 PM   #114
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The goal is to match the two top rated teams in the BCS championship, not the best 2.

You raise what should be a salient point.

It gets overlooked a lot I think, but it's a pretty doggoned important distinction.
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Old 12-03-2006, 06:25 PM   #115
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wait, now people are saying the rankings aren't supposed to reflect how good a team is? awesome. some of you must work for the BCS.

why don't we just have a lottery drawing? the power conferences could get more ping-pong balls in the hopper, and the drawing could be held on pay-per-view...
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Old 12-03-2006, 06:26 PM   #116
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Isn't this what Auburn fans last year said of the Badgers.. they'll get throttled. I'd suggest you watch the game and find out for yourself how good either team is.
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Old 12-03-2006, 06:30 PM   #117
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wait, now people are saying the rankings aren't supposed to reflect how good a team is? awesome. some of you must work for the BCS.


I think these terms of "best team" and "best season" mean different things to different people, and thus the distinction may be meaningless. But the way I see it, "best team" (i.e. talent), can be determined before the season even starts. If a team is absolutely the most talented team in the country, but they blow 3 early games because of bad coaching or a stupid interception, we don't want them in the championship game even if they're clearly the "best team". Instead, we want the team, that, regardless of talent, had the most successful season in terms of Wins and Losses, and quality of competition - that's what the BCS measures. The BCS doesn't independently care about talent level - it's clearly not a "best team" analysis - it only cares about results.

Last edited by molson : 12-03-2006 at 06:31 PM.
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Old 12-03-2006, 06:37 PM   #118
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Isn't this what Auburn fans last year said of the Badgers.. they'll get throttled. I'd suggest you watch the game and find out for yourself how good either team is.

Don't you know, the SEC is far and away the best conference in the country. Didn't you see Georgia demolish WVU last year? Or the way Arkansas handled USC earlier this year?
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Old 12-03-2006, 06:49 PM   #119
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Wow. Florida received one 1st place vote in the Harris Poll. This thing is messed up.
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Old 12-03-2006, 06:59 PM   #120
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Wow. Florida received one 1st place vote in the Harris Poll. This thing is messed up.

Ouch. Somebody's stuffing the ballot box.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:00 PM   #121
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wait, now people are saying the rankings aren't supposed to reflect how good a team is?


The computer rankings do this. The human polls are the ones based on whichever team the media is pushing that week.

Last edited by Atocep : 12-03-2006 at 07:01 PM.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:00 PM   #122
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Wow. Florida received one 1st place vote in the Harris Poll. This thing is messed up.

That's it?!?!?!

Wow.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:05 PM   #123
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I hate Fox trying to drag this thing out as long as possible.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:07 PM   #124
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I agree. Years back, ABC/ESPN's show lasted about 15 minutes as they just announced them one after the other.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:07 PM   #125
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Wow. Florida received one 1st place vote in the Harris Poll. This thing is messed up.

I demand a recount.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:09 PM   #126
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Wow. Florida received one 1st place vote in the Harris Poll. This thing is messed up.

Here's your culprit.

http://www.pollg.com/g/w27236/w27236...tm?who=jwalden

I think he was a coach at Washington - no connection to Florida that I can see.

Pretty interesting list of voters. There's a spreadsheet on that site that shows each voter's votes. Boise St's ranking varies between #2 and #15.

Last edited by molson : 12-03-2006 at 07:10 PM.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:10 PM   #127
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I can't understand how a Michigan fan could be too upset, given that they had their chance to take down Ohio State. I think it's a more reasonable decision to give Florida a crack than to give Michigan another one.

I never understood this argument. This doesn't mean anything to me. I want the teams that proven themselves to be the best two this year. If it was Florida against Florida State, I wouldn't care. The problem steams as to who had the second best season.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:10 PM   #128
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In this day and age, why dragging stuff out works amazes me. I can either sit there and quickly flip to ESPNews or look at my Blackberry to find out what they want me to pay their advertisers to sit through and miss the beginning of the Broncos game. Why would I do that? WHY??
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:10 PM   #129
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Florida is in.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:13 PM   #130
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Here's the final Harris poll, with voting breakdown, if anyone is interested.

Bert Emanuel had Rice in his top 25 - isn't he an alum?

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/new...Dec_3_2006.pdf
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:15 PM   #131
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Who is Jim Walden?
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:16 PM   #132
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So it looks like the coaches poll determined it.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:20 PM   #133
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Both the human polls were the difference, the computers were even.

ND - LSU is going to be ugly.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:21 PM   #134
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Who is Jim Walden?

Wikipedia says he coached Washington and Iowa St. Also, it has this entry, just added:

"Somehow, this idiot thought it was a good idea to vote a 1 loss Florida team over an undefeated Ohio State team in an attempt to get Flordia into the national championship game. The old Southern coot got his wish, as he screwed over Michigan....Walden spent his golden years blaming the Wolverines for ruining Ryan Leaf, and was able to exact his revenge via pen, shortly before becoming a full time milkshake..."

Of course, 1 vote in Harris Poll didn't make a difference, but it's pretty funny to see is Wikipedia entry vandalized so quickly.

Last edited by molson : 12-03-2006 at 07:21 PM.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:21 PM   #135
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Both the human polls were the difference, the computers were even.

ND - LSU is going to be ugly.

Yes. Almost as ugly as the National Championship game.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:22 PM   #136
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I'm actually intrigued by all these games, except possibly Wake Forest vs. Louisville. I think this is a good outcome.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:24 PM   #137
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Wikipedia says he coached Washington and Iowa St. Also, it has this entry, just added:

"Somehow, this idiot thought it was a good idea to vote a 1 loss Florida team over an undefeated Ohio State team in an attempt to get Flordia into the national championship game. The old Southern coot got his wish, as he screwed over Michigan....Walden spent his golden years blaming the Wolverines for ruining Ryan Leaf, and was able to exact his revenge via pen, shortly before becoming a full time milkshake..."

Of course, 1 vote in Harris Poll didn't make a difference, but it's pretty funny to see is Wikipedia entry vandalized so quickly.

also amazing how quickly it was corrected.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:24 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by molson View Post
Wikipedia says he coached Washington and Iowa St. Also, it has this entry, just added:

"Somehow, this idiot thought it was a good idea to vote a 1 loss Florida team over an undefeated Ohio State team in an attempt to get Flordia into the national championship game. The old Southern coot got his wish, as he screwed over Michigan....Walden spent his golden years blaming the Wolverines for ruining Ryan Leaf, and was able to exact his revenge via pen, shortly before becoming a full time milkshake..."

Of course, 1 vote in Harris Poll didn't make a difference, but it's pretty funny to see is Wikipedia entry vandalized so quickly.

Thanks! Pretty interesting. There is no way to justify that vote. I don't think you should penalize a team for not playing, frankly, but to vote a team over 2 others, one undefeated, tells me that person deserves to lose the right to vote. Assinine.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:25 PM   #139
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So, does this put a lot pressure on Florida, if Michigan wins the Rose Bowl?
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:29 PM   #140
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So, does this put a lot pressure on Florida, if Michigan wins the Rose Bowl?

No I think the pressure of winning the national championship will be enough.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:29 PM   #141
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So, does this put a lot pressure on Florida, if Michigan wins the Rose Bowl?

Well, Florida will be the "BCS Champion" if they beat Ohio St, but I'm sure Michigan will get it's share of #1 votes in the AP Poll if both they and Florida win.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:33 PM   #142
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No I think the pressure of winning the national championship will be enough.

I should of phrase my question better. Does it put pressure on the BCS mess through Florida's performance against Ohio State?
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:34 PM   #143
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Points for Michigan:

They were ranked #2 by the same system going in, it's very rare for a team to drop at this stage without losing.


I kind of agree with Jim hear. Honestly, I don't know which team I want to see play Ohio State but for Michigan to get jumped over by 2 teams at the end of the season without even playing seems very odd. Hell, there was no point of them even being #2. Number #4 beating #9 caused them to jump ahead of the #2 ranked team seems jacked up. I love the SEC but having the championship game seems to really help them. Based on the arguments of Florida's stenght of schedule I would have expected them to be ranked ahead of Michigan in the first place. It shouldn't taken the last game of the season for voters to NOW determine that Florida is #2 with Michigan sitting on the bench.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:37 PM   #144
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:38 PM   #145
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What do people think we would be looking at if Michigan had beat Ohio State. Just curious.

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Old 12-03-2006, 07:39 PM   #146
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Well, Florida will be the "BCS Champion" if they beat Ohio St, but I'm sure Michigan will get it's share of #1 votes in the AP Poll if both they and Florida win.
I have absolutely ZERO doubt that if Florida and Michigan both win, we will have a split national title, with Florida taking the coaches poll and Michigan topping the AP poll. I don't give a shit what the Harris poll does, and neither does anybody else.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:39 PM   #147
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I kind of agree with Jim hear. Honestly, I don't know which team I want to see play Ohio State but for Michigan to get jumped over by 2 teams at the end of the season without even playing seems very odd. Hell, there was no point of them even being #2. Number #4 beating #9 caused them to jump ahead of the #2 ranked team seems jacked up. I love the SEC but having the championship game seems to really help them. Based on the arguments of Florida's stenght of schedule I would have expected them to be ranked ahead of Michigan in the first place. It shouldn't taken the last game of the season for voters to NOW determine that Florida is #2 with Michigan sitting on the bench.

Looking at Florida's schedule (including a 1-AA team) and play against South Carolina, Vandy, Tennessee in tha wild game, Georgia, Florida State, is it really better?

09/02 So Miss W 34-7
09/09 C Florida W 42-0
09/16 at #13 Tennessee W 21-20
09/23 Kentucky W 26-7
09/30 Alabama W 28-13
10/07 #9 LSU W 23-10
10/14 at #11 Auburn L 27-17
10/28 at Georgia W 21-14
11/04 at Vanderbilt W 25-19
11/11 S Carolina W 17-16
11/18 W Carolina W 62-0
11/25 at Florida St W 21-14
12/02 #8 Arkansas W 38-28

I just don't see the argument that Florida had a better season. Michigan's slate:

09/02 Vanderbilt W 27-7
09/09 C Michigan W 41-17
09/16 at #2 N Dame W 47-21
09/23 Wisconsin W 27-13
09/30 at Minnesota W 28-14
10/07 Mich St W 31-13
10/14 at Penn State W 17-10
10/21 Iowa W 20-6
10/28 N'western W 17-3
11/04 Ball St W 34-26
11/11 at Indiana W 34-3
11/18 at #1 Ohio St L 42-39

Last edited by Galaxy : 12-03-2006 at 07:40 PM.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:40 PM   #148
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I should of phrase my question better. Does it put pressure on the BCS mess through Florida's performance against Ohio State?

In the eyes of the public, probably. In the eyes of the BCS supporters, no. It is not the first time something like this has happened. In fact, I think it is more of a norm than the exception. If the Gators win, then the BCS picked the right team to win the championship. If the Buckeyes win, then the BCS will have picked the right team to win the championship.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:44 PM   #149
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I have absolutely ZERO doubt that if Florida and Michigan both win, we will have a split national title, with Florida taking the coaches poll and Michigan topping the AP poll. I don't give a shit what the Harris poll does, and neither does anybody else.

Florida has a small lead over Michigan in the AP. I don't see how them beating the team that beat Michigan would get voters to push Michigan ahead.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:45 PM   #150
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Are the individual results of each voter in the coaches poll released?
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