Alex Smith

[Sun Tzu]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

For whatever it's worth, snap has the '9ers ranked 30th in terms of dropped passes.

Those are definetely '06 stats. It's been well documented that the 49ers receivers have dropped a good amount more passes than any other team in '07. It doesn't help that Darrell Jackson has dropped somewhere along the lines of 22 passes this year in only 9 games.

[Bad-example]

Another season, another offensive coordinator for Alex Smith and the 49ers. I think the talent level has risen the last few years, most dramatically on defense, but with the young QB having to learn from a different OC every year, how can he be expected to excel? He was doing ok last season before getting his shoulder crunched, but they rushed him back and it was a disaster.

I still think it is too soon to call Smith a bust.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Bad-example

Another season, another offensive coordinator for Alex Smith and the 49ers... but with the young QB having to learn from a different OC every year, how can he be expected to excel? He was doing ok last season before getting his shoulder crunched, but they rushed him back and it was a disaster.

This sort of argument always sounds pretty convincing... jury's still out, dealt a bad hand, weak line, no weapons, new system, etc. But how many times has one of these "seems like a bust" QBs really turned it around once he got that problem settled?

I don't have strong feelings about Smith, really, this just sounds awfully familiar. Pretty much every early QB pick who disappoints gets a round or two of this, it seems, before being declared a true bust.

[MikeVic]

He'll go the path of David Carr.

[Bad-example]

Steve Young and Vinny Testaverde needed to change teams to find some success. Top of the draft QBs that were declared busts by the team that drafted them.

[Karlifornia]

I'm calling an MVP season for Smith...Well, okay. Maybe not.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

But how many times has one of these "seems like a bust" QBs really turned it around once he got that problem settled?

Eli Manning is the only active guy that really comes to mind, and you could argue he never really has the "potential" bust label the way Smith does.

Drew Brees may also fit the criteria if you're willing to stretch it a bit.

[st.cronin]

I still think Alex could be good, but really he was only technically a #1 pick. He was not considered the same level of talent as Carr or Manning, but had the good fortune to be in a very weak draft class.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

he was only technically a #1 pick.

Tell me how Kwame Brown ass taste.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Maybe this was just my personal feeling about it (I dunno if the "experts" would've agreed with me), but I had thought that Steve McNair was going to be a huge bust after his first couple of years as a starter. I don't know if anything particularly changed with the team after that, but McNair seemed to just "get it" and led the Titans to the Super Bowl. His numbers in the Super Bowl year weren't great, but in the following years, he was a very, very good quarterback.

Like I said, maybe nobody else would've started to apply the "bust" label to him. I'm sure he got some leeway because he came from a small school and wasn't expected to do much right away. Still, I didn't think he'd turn into an MVP quarterback down the line.

As for Alex Smith, well, I think he'll be fine. He could help lead the 49ers to the playoffs in the next year or two. I don't think he'll ever win a Super Bowl, but hell, most quarterbacks don't.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Tell me how Kwame Brown ass taste.

As a Grizzlies fan, I know how Kwame Brown's ass tastes.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Bad-example

Steve Young and Vinny Testaverde needed to change teams to find some success. Top of the draft QBs that were declared busts by the team that drafted them.

Please. Vinny also needed ten years of development. He had ONE good season, '98 with the Jets, and everyone decided he was a decent QB.

[Logan]

Smith is also still really, really young, given his time in the league.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Bad-example

Another season, another offensive coordinator for Alex Smith and the 49ers. I think the talent level has risen the last few years, most dramatically on defense, but with the young QB having to learn from a different OC every year, how can he be expected to excel? He was doing ok last season before getting his shoulder crunched, but they rushed him back and it was a disaster.

I still think it is too soon to call Smith a bust.

This sort of reminds me of that one draft-day discussion with Drew Bledsoe after he got traded from the Patriots to the Bills and there was quite a bit of discussion on how Bledsoe had a lot of offensive coordinators like that his first few seasons as well.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Please. Vinny also needed ten years of development. He had ONE good season, '98 with the Jets, and everyone decided he was a decent QB.

I don't think that's quite accurate. I would say 1993, 1995, 1996, and 2003 were also good seasons, in addition to his great season of 1998. 93 is notable because it was the first year after he got away from the Bucs, which were a joke franchise at that time. So he had 4 out of 6 solid seasons after leaving the Bucs.

And that's kind of the point. Do we know how good Alex Smith is? It's possible his talent could be hidden so far, because the talent surrounding him is not so good.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

This sort of argument always sounds pretty convincing... jury's still out, dealt a bad hand, weak line, no weapons, new system, etc. But how many times has one of these "seems like a bust" QBs really turned it around once he got that problem settled?

I don't have strong feelings about Smith, really, this just sounds awfully familiar. Pretty much every early QB pick who disappoints gets a round or two of this, it seems, before being declared a true bust.

Yup, Smith's a bust. I've given up*

*Although I secretly hope that giving up means Smith becomes the Steve Young I desperately want him to be.

[st.cronin]

Probably not the right thread for this, but I still think KYLE ORTON could be quite a decent qb. I am not sure he will ever get another chance, though.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Probably not the right thread for this, but I still think KYLE ORTON could be quite a decent qb. I am not sure he will ever get another chance, though.

I always thought he'd end up being the better Bears QB eventually.

That's not saying much, but I'm hoping for a Brees-like awakening the next time he's given the reigns.

Hey, a Bearsh fan can dream, right?

[Sun Tzu]

Having seen just about every game Smith has ever played in, and watching Shaun Hill take snaps with the starting Offense in training camp, I think there's a decent chance Smith wont even be the starter this year. Hill has a respectable year last year with the same team, finishing with a QB rating of over 100, and he was able to actually move the team down the field consistently. Hill (outside of a bad day last week) is tearing it up in camp so far, and after each practice fans are mobing him for autographs even moreso than Smith now...we'll see how the preseason goes.

[Bad-example]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

Having seen just about every game Smith has ever played in, and watching Shaun Hill take snaps with the starting Offense in training camp, I think there's a decent chance Smith wont even be the starter this year. Hill has a respectable year last year with the same team, finishing with a QB rating of over 100, and he was able to actually move the team down the field consistently. Hill (outside of a bad day last week) is tearing it up in camp so far, and after each practice fans are mobing him for autographs even moreso than Smith now...we'll see how the preseason goes.

Barring injury, I don't see any way Hill wins that job in preseason. Alex moved the team pretty well too, before his shoulder got wrecked. And word is they appear pretty even thus far, and that means the guy with the big contract has the edge.

I predict Smith wins the starting job in TC and it goes from there.

Also, Smith had the long line at the autograph session the other day. Hill had < 10 people in his line.

[DeToxRox]

Mike Martz is calling the shots in SF, so just wait for Smith to be broken down even further and left for dead so Martz can have one of his guys come in and he can scream reclimation! If you read this thread you know how I feel about Smith, and nothing has changed. He is Tim Tebow's future self.

[Sun Tzu]

Originally Posted by Bad-example

Also, Smith had the long line at the autograph session the other day. Hill had < 10 people in his line.

What day was this?

Nolan has said that both QB's will get equal time with the starting O during the preseason and then he'll make his decision based on performance in those games, as well as in TC. In the 3 games Smith played in before his shoulder got whacked last year, he had the following statlines.

15/31 126 0-0
11/17 126 0-0
17/35 209 1-1

In the 3 games Hill played in last year, he had the following statlines.

22/27 181 1-0
21/28 197 1-0 (+1 Rushing TD)
11/24 123 3-1

I'll be back @ training camp this coming sunday during the AM practice...let me know if you're gunna be there too.

[Karlifornia]

How about whoever has the longer autograph line on the last day of training camp wins the starting job?

[Bad-example]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

What day was this?

They cancelled the afternoon practice Saturday and set up autograph tables on the field. From Maiocco's blog:

The biggest audience was for Patrick Willis, whose line stretched the entire width of the field. Vernon Davis and Frank Gore also had long lines, with Alex Smith's line a distant fourth. (When I checked Shaun Hill's line, it was about 10 deep.)

So Smith's line wasn't long like the first three guys mentioned but clearly he was a hotter ticket than Hill.

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

Nolan has said that both QB's will get equal time with the starting O during the preseason and then he'll make his decision based on performance in those games, as well as in TC. In the 3 games Smith played in before his shoulder got whacked last year, he had the following statlines.

15/31 126 0-0
11/17 126 0-0
17/35 209 1-1

In the 3 games Hill played in last year, he had the following statlines.

22/27 181 1-0
21/28 197 1-0 (+1 Rushing TD)
11/24 123 3-1

I'll be back @ training camp this coming sunday during the AM practice...let me know if you're gunna be there too.

Hill earned himself a nice little contract with that run. I still say that Smith wins that job. He has the big contract and the big arm. Unless Hill completely outplays him in the preseason...possible but unlikely...Smith is the starter on opening day. IMHO.

Not going to training camp but will be curious to read about your experience there. Good luck!

[Sun Tzu]

Originally Posted by Karlifornia

How about whoever has the longer autograph line on the last day of training camp wins the starting job?

We respect the Chicago Bears franchise, but we don't want to adopt ALL of their Quarterback philosophies.

[Spree]

Originally Posted by Bad-example

with the young QB having to learn from a different OC every year, how can he be expected to excel?

Even with this go around, if he immediately grasps Martz's offense, I still don't think he has the arm strength to truly excel in it.

[Vince]

Now, I haven't been there at all, so I'm behind you guys in that regard. But everyone I've heard has said that Smith is simply the better athlete in their workouts. Combine that with his contract and former #1 overall pick status, and I can't imagine that Hill wins the job even with a completely jaw-dropping pre-season.

I've heard some people make a very tenuous claim that the 49ers could be this year's New York Giants - a coach just about on his way out the door, a former #1 overall pick who has shown flashes of brilliance, but overall has been a disappointment and is on his way to being named a bust. Now, the 49ers aren't blessed with Strahan and Umenyiora (sp?), but Patrick Willis is a beast and they DO get Manny Lawson back this season. A healthy Gore and if Martz gets the offense clicking, and it COULD turn around quickly. I'm not foolish enough to think that they're going to win the Super Bowl, but I think that a .500 season and an outside shot at the playoffs isn't out of the question.

[MacroGuru]

Smith was a product of Meyers offense at Utah, he ran more than threw and when he was running it did open up the passing. When he was drafted #1 overall I sat and laughed and laughed at my in-laws who are Niners fans and told them until the organization realizes this kid was a college system QB and does not have what it takes, they will just sit and mire around in the bottom half of the league...so far my crystal ball says I am right..

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I don't think that's quite accurate. I would say 1993, 1995, 1996, and 2003 were also good seasons, in addition to his great season of 1998. 93 is notable because it was the first year after he got away from the Bucs, which were a joke franchise at that time. So he had 4 out of 6 solid seasons after leaving the Bucs.

And that's kind of the point. Do we know how good Alex Smith is? It's possible his talent could be hidden so far, because the talent surrounding him is not so good.

I disagree most completely on Vinny's "good" years. He managed only 10 games in '93, which helped keep his INT total down. And only 56.5% completion that year. Overall, the stats in '93 are pretty close to those in '92 with the Bucs, just some mild improvement. '95 was okay, but again missed 3 games and was 17/10 on TD/INT. '96 I may grant you, and 2003 was again a 7 game season.

Vinny was not considered a "good" QB until that '98 season, and he's ridden it since.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Probably not the right thread for this, but I still think KYLE ORTON could be quite a decent qb. I am not sure he will ever get another chance, though.

His brief time at the helm was probably the most consistently good (or better-than-average) the team has been in the past 5 or 10 years. Orton continues to strike me as a guy who's not necessarily going to win any games for you, but is going to put the rest of the team in a position to win. I'll take that over Good Rex/Bad Rex any day.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

This sort of argument always sounds pretty convincing... jury's still out, dealt a bad hand, weak line, no weapons, new system, etc. But how many times has one of these "seems like a bust" QBs really turned it around once he got that problem settled?

I don't have strong feelings about Smith, really, this just sounds awfully familiar. Pretty much every early QB pick who disappoints gets a round or two of this, it seems, before being declared a true bust.

Rick Mirer and Trent Dilfer stand out to me... Tommy Maddox came back and had a good season and then there is the McNair/Eli category where people forget they were calling him a bust. If we're going by the first three, Couch, David Carr, Harrington and certainly Alex Smith still have time. He was drafted at age 20, so he only turned 24 two months ago.

[stevew]

Smith will be amazing once he transitions to the cfl.

Besides, even if he does work out in the NFL its largely irrelevant to why I started this thread......the sub 30 rating in a decent sample size was amazingly awful.

[Pumpy Tudors]

hey steve sup

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Rick Mirer and Trent Dilfer stand out to me...

Bpth of these guys were picked in the top ten of the draft, by teams that intended to make them franchise quarterbacks. Did either of them, by any reasonable estimation, really overcome the bust label and demonstrate that they were really worthy of being a "franchise QB" selection?

By the way -- yes, I am aware that Trent Dilfer has a SB ring, I think it's been pretty well documented, top to bottom, what happened with that team.

I'm not trying to say it's impossible, nor that it never happens... but I think for every high pick who gets a second and third chance for these reasons and actually really works out, there are probably five more who really are the busts they appear to be.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Bpth of these guys were picked in the top ten of the draft, by teams that intended to make them franchise quarterbacks. Did either of them, by any reasonable estimation, really overcome the bust label and demonstrate that they were really worthy of being a "franchise QB" selection?

By the way -- yes, I am aware that Trent Dilfer has a SB ring, I think it's been pretty well documented, top to bottom, what happened with that team.

I'm not trying to say it's impossible, nor that it never happens... but I think for every high pick who gets a second and third chance for these reasons and actually really works out, there are probably five more who really are the busts they appear to be.

This.

I was someone who thought Smith would make a good QB. I'm finding very little to continue with that belief system. the rationalizations are nice, but are usually wrong. I think Smith is a better QB than what he's shown. But what is that really saying when he's shown himself to be worse than a typical Florida U. QB in the NFL?

After a couple of years that bad, it's time to just say he can't play and see if he can prove otherwise.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

By the way -- yes, I am aware that Trent Dilfer has a SB ring, I think it's been pretty well documented, top to bottom, what happened with that team.

yes, let's just conveniently gloss over his Super Bowl ring so we can continue to try to make a point.

Dilfer has the same amount of Super Bowl rings as Brett Favre and Peyton Manning and one more than Marino. not saying he's in their class, but let's not just sweep his accomplishments under the rug.

Trent Green is another person to prove your theory wrong. bounced around from Redskins, to Rams and hit his stride with the Chiefs. a certain Rich Gannon, winner of an MVP one year, also discredits you. have you heard of Jake Plummer? add him to the list since being run out of town in Arizona he took the Broncos to the playoffs. maybe you remember one Kerry Collins, who took the Giants to the Super Bowl after bottoming out with the Saints, who were the 2nd stop on his journey.

this is all off the top of my head, i'll stop now rather than resort to google since i've already poo-poo'd all over your theory.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by Anthony

Trent Green is another person to prove your theory wrong. bounced around from Redskins, to Rams and hit his stride with the Chiefs. a certain Rich Gannon, winner of an MVP one year, also discredits you. have you heard of Jake Plummer? add him to the list since being run out of town in Arizona he took the Broncos to the playoffs. maybe you remember one Kerry Collins, who took the Giants to the Super Bowl after bottoming out with the Saints, who were the 2nd stop on his journey.

this is all off the top of my head, i'll stop now rather than resort to google since i've already poo-poo'd all over your theory.

Trent Green was an 8th round draft pick. Rich Gannon was a 4th round draft pick. Plummer was a 2nd round pick whose career came to a screeching halt when he was reduced to only holding for placekicks. I'm not sure how any of these guys discredit or even relate to QuikSand's point. I guess you can argue the Collins point, though, so it wasn't a complete whiff.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Trent Green was an 8th round draft pick. Rich Gannon was a 4th round draft pick. Plummer was a 2nd round pick whose career came to a screeching halt when he was reduced to only holding for placekicks. I'm not sure how any of these guys discredit or even relate to QuikSand's point. I guess you can argue the Collins point, though, so it wasn't a complete whiff.

we're not talking about solely QB's drafted in the 1st round - we're talking about QB's who were franchise QB's with one team, and then based off of that reputation as being a one-time franchise QB getting another chance elsewhere. QS is claiming incorrectly that all too much these guys don't come through, and i'm correcting stating that one can name a handful off the top of their head about past QB's who've had success with subsequent teams.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by Anthony

we're talking about QB's who were franchise QB's with one team

Not if you are bringing up Green and Gannon.

[rkmsuf]

I will call your Alex Smith and raise you Joey Harrington.

[Bad-example]

Originally Posted by TroyF

This.

I was someone who thought Smith would make a good QB. I'm finding very little to continue with that belief system. the rationalizations are nice, but are usually wrong. I think Smith is a better QB than what he's shown. But what is that really saying when he's shown himself to be worse than a typical Florida U. QB in the NFL?

After a couple of years that bad, it's time to just say he can't play and see if he can prove otherwise.

This sure looks like a make-or-break season for Smith. Either he grabs the job and shows he can be a decent starter or he moves on to a second chance somewhere else.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Anthony

yes, let's just conveniently gloss over his Super Bowl ring so we can continue to try to make a point.

Dilfer has the same amount of Super Bowl rings as Brett Favre and Peyton Manning and one more than Marino. not saying he's in their class, but let's not just sweep his accomplishments under the rug.

Trent Green is another person to prove your theory wrong. bounced around from Redskins, to Rams and hit his stride with the Chiefs. a certain Rich Gannon, winner of an MVP one year, also discredits you. have you heard of Jake Plummer? add him to the list since being run out of town in Arizona he took the Broncos to the playoffs. maybe you remember one Kerry Collins, who took the Giants to the Super Bowl after bottoming out with the Saints, who were the 2nd stop on his journey.

this is all off the top of my head, i'll stop now rather than resort to google since i've already poo-poo'd all over your theory.

Actually, you haven't poo pood over anyone's theory. The theory is that most guys drafted to become franchise QB's who suck badly the first few years don't ever make it. What's more, is that those who do make it, don't really become great QB's.

Let's look at your list:

Trent Dilfer - He sucked. OK? Do you understand this? He sucked badly. Even when he won a Super Bowl, he still sucked. The guy developed into a nice backup and rode the best defense in NFL history and Jamall Lewis to a title. He never lived up to his rep.

Rich Gannon - He wasn't drafted as a franchise QB. He was drafted as a project out of Delaware. As with most projects in the NFL, he played for a few teams before it all came together and he starred. Think Tony Romo, not Alex Smith with this comparison.

Kerry Collins - He succeeded early on. He was a pro bowler in his second season. This isn't a case of a guy who didn't develop. He had an alcohol problem and rebounded.

I could do the same with all of the others, but lets say all of your guys are right. Then we go down the line:

Heath Schuler
David Carr
Kyle Boller
JP Losman
Tommy Maddox
Ryan Leaf

I could go on for ten pages here. And that's all QS's point was. For every guy who succeeds, there are 20 that fail. I think the numbers back him up.

[Sun Tzu]

If Alex Smith is teh suck this year, he will most definitely not be a 49er next year.

[Huckleberry]

Oh yeah?

Well Roger Staubach was drafted to be a franchise QB and he didn't do jack for the first 4 years after he was drafted. He then went on to win two Super Bowls and he retired as the highest rated passer of all time. And, of course, he's in the Hall of Fame.

Well, he didn't do jack in the NFL for the first 4 years. Does that count?

[gkb]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I could do the same with all of the others, but lets say all of your guys are right. Then we go down the line:

Heath Schuler
David Carr
Kyle Boller
JP Losman
Tommy Maddox
Ryan Leaf

I could go on for ten pages here. And that's all QS's point was. For every guy who succeeds, there are 20 that fail. I think the numbers back him up.

Hang on...didn't Tommy win a championship in the XFL?

Also, I just read an article on Mike Wilpolt being named AFL Coach of the Year. I went to high school with him. Thought I'd share...

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by gkb

Hang on...didn't Tommy win a championship in the XFL?

Your wife won a championship in my bed. OH SNAP

[gkb]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Your wife won a championship in my bed. OH SNAP

Dammit Pumpy.

[RedKingGold]

Anthony, the big point that you're missing is that Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Kerry Collins etc. may have won a Super Bowl or been to a Super Bowl, but they did not do so for the team that drafted them.

Unless Smith turns his career around with the 49er's, he'll always be considered a bus for San Francisco whether or not he turns around and wins 5 Super Bowls for another team.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I could go on for ten pages here. And that's all QS's point was. For every guy who succeeds, there are 20 that fail. I think the numbers back him up.

hi douche. trying learning to comprehend what you read. his statement was that for every franchise QB that goes to another team and succeeds - there are far more who won't. thus, using QBs who were "the man" on a previous team doesn't ensure future success. that's what he's saying, and he's incorrect.

as far as the "for every guy that succeeds there's 20 that fail", i hope you get a job with that amazing analysis and surprising revelation. you mean more QBs will not make it in the NFL than guys that do??? astounding!!! did you want to tell me something about Lance Bass that we may not already know?

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Anthony, the big point that you're missing is that Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Kerry Collins etc. may have won a Super Bowl or been to a Super Bowl, but they did not do so for the team that drafted them.

Unless Smith turns his career around with the 49er's, he'll always be considered a bus for San Francisco whether or not he turns around and wins 5 Super Bowls for another team.

if he can somehow win 5 super bowls with another team, at what point would you say the blame wasn't on Smith during his 49ers years so much as it was maybe his coach's fault for bad gameplan decisions or the GM's fault for not surrounding him with better talent?

you have to understand something about NFL QBs. NFL QBs, if you're one of them - are the top best 32 QBs *in the world*. these are world class athletes. they can make any throw (some better than others), can absord encyclopedia's worth of gameplan, can make decisions in the span of less than 2 seconds while impending pain and hurt is oncoming. if i were to tell you that a 6'5", 270 lb DE was rushing on your blind side to try to tackle you as hard as he could, before you could piss your pants out of fright you'd be sacked. an NFL QB can block out that info and make a perfect throw. so, even the worst NFL QB is still one of the best 30 something QBs on earth.

how many QBs have been given the label of bust because they were in the wrong place at the wrong time? you think Ryan Leaf - college stud QB - all of a sudden forgot how to throw? back in '98 if you were Bill Polian you could've flipped a coin to determine whether to taken Manning or Leaf #1 overall. Leaf was huger in college than Brees and Rivers combined - but stick Tomlinson on the roster and all of a sudden Brees/Rivers look like world beaters. put Antonio Gates at TE and these guys can't make a bad throw. who did Leaf have on the roster? nobody, unless Natrone Means gets your tits tight and pointy. seriously, look at this Chargers roster and tell me if this is an environment in which a young QB can thrive in or not. (in case you were wondering, Manning had some bums named Faulk and Harrison - in 1998).

NFL GMs have it right - you can't just look at a guy when he was at team X and just cuz he didn't get it done there think all of a sudden he magically lost his skills, skills he's been working on since Pop Warner, High School and College levels. the old "sometimes a chance of scenery might just be the remedy" adage is true.