Sports betting?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

This is the time of year when you see the enormous 30+ pointspreads in college football. What is the strategy for betting those games? It seems like whether the favored team wins by 20 or 30 or 40 or 60 has more to do with how they’re going to approach the game then some sense of if they are “really“ 32.5 points better than their opponent.

Do you just run your system like normal, or do you approach those differently?

First half bets. I pounded Clemson first quarter -10 today. I will pound Bama -20.5 Saturday. Good teams tend to ease up second half of blowouts.

[Lathum]

I bet the first five total over 8.5 today. Did just 1/2 unit because it was such a big number. Was 7-2 after the first inning.

Took UC -2.5. Getting interesting

[Lathum]

I know it doesn't mean much after, but looking good so far.

tulane -3
Mets team total under 4
Mets first 5 under 4.5
Rockies First 5 over 8.5
Clemson 1st quarter -10
took Clemson in game -38
Rockies total over 14.5

Getting killedo n some NFL preseason games.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Butter

Current bet I'm seeing on that is UCLA Over 6 at -140, which means that bettors are leaning more towards a 7-5 type team. We shall see.

I think getting -3 at + money is good value. But we shall see on that as well.

The Pac12 has a ton of mediocre middling teams. I wouldn't bet on most of them to win at a good Group of 5 team. UC doesn't get the opportunity often to get a Power5 team to come into Cincinnati, let alone on opening night.

Chip Kelly will finally earn some of that contract if he wins this game, and maybe it will signal UCLA is actually on the way back if they can pull it out.

Good call.

So, a QB makes his biggest leap from FR to SO years, huh? DTR must have skipped that part. I'm not sure I have ever seen a worse QB performance in my life.

A lot of deserved questioning for the coaching "genius" today.

UC actually doesn't look all that great. But they found an opponent to out-mediocre them.

[Lathum]

Got the Brewers/Cubs over 8, plus in game over 9. Already hit the first 5 over 4.5. Brewers with bases loaded, 1 out, and they strike out back to back to end the inning. Baseball can be maddening.

[Lathum]

dola- and another strike out with a runner on 3rd and 1 out. No one can actually situationaly hit anymore in baseball.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

UC actually doesn't look all that great. But they found an opponent to out-mediocre them.

I was able to watch about a quarter and a half of this game and I would agree. The game was less about Cincinnati being better but about UCLA playing worse. Neither team looked good.

[Lathum]

Illinois -18
ohio state total +46.5
Toledo-ky under 62
FSU-6.5

[Lathum]

All time bad beat NW getting 6.5

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Lathum

All time bad beat NW getting 6.5

I told my son the NW QB was going to throw a pick six to give me the beat. I was close.

[Butter]

Here's what I've got for this weekend already loaded:

Washington -14 v. Cal
Tennessee -3 v. BYU
A&M +18.5 @ Clemson
Hawaii -4.5 v. Oregon St.

Probably have more to come.

[bhlloy]

USC -3 vs Stanford with a true freshman backup quarterback is about the best odds you are ever going to see on a college game. I'd be stunned if Stanford doesn't win by 2 TD's going away.

It's almost good enough to make me fly to Vegas to put something on it, to be honest.

[Lathum]

I made a rather large bet on the live over 13 in the Dodgers-Rockies game.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

USC -3 vs Stanford with a true freshman backup quarterback is about the best odds you are ever going to see on a college game. I'd be stunned if Stanford doesn't win by 2 TD's going away.

It's almost good enough to make me fly to Vegas to put something on it, to be honest.

Sounds like Stanford's QB is questionable for this game... still feel the same about it?

[Lathum]

Took the under 47 tonight. A buddy has a big bet on Trubisky going over 22.5 rushing yards.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Butter

Sounds like Stanford's QB is questionable for this game... still feel the same about it?

Yeah, the depth that Stanford has plus the fact they actually have a head coach rather than a complete train wreck still makes it an absolute no brainer.

This SC team is at least as badly coached, mistake prone and undisciplined as last year, with an unheralded true freshman QB and less experience on defense. It’s not going to go well.

[Butter]

Packers +3

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Took the under 47 tonight. A buddy has a big bet on Trubisky going over 22.5 rushing yards.

Your bet is looking good. Mitch has 8 yards at half... that'll be close

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Butter

Your bet is looking good. Mitch has 8 yards at half... that'll be close

Fingers crossed, these games can get bonkers.

My buddy knew he would basically need him to rip off one good run.

[Butter]

Pulled the trigger on the under for Stanford/USC now that Costello is officially out. Under 43.

Also have Ohio State/ Cincinnati over 27 1st half.

[Lathum]

Love the USC bet, hate the UC bet. Cats have a great defense and tOSU really tailed off after their hot start last week

[Butter]

I don't know that they have a great defense. UCLA was handing them gifts all night.

[Butter]

Two more and that's it for me.

Ohio ML +155 @ Pitt
Maryland ML -115 v. Syracuse

[Lathum]

My biggest bet of the day is UCLA -7.5 against a San Diego St team that only managed 6 points against Weber St.

I also have Michigan -21.5 and the over 58.5 in syracuse/ Maryland

[Lathum]

added Purdue -7.

[jbergey22]

Syracuse +1
Mizzou -13.5
Vandy/Purdue over 55
Akron +8

[Butter]

Ended up slightly up, thanks to in game bets on Texas +8.5, and Army +17.5.

Also have to thank A&M for their late meaningless TD to keep my main picks from going 0-4. Yikes.

USC beat the Over by themselves.

[Lathum]

UCLA. Jesus Christ...

[jbergey22]

Eagles -10
Jets -2.5
Ravens -6.5
Chiefs -3.5
Rams -1
Tenn/Cle over 44
Det -2

Yes, lots of chalk.... Normally failure in the NFL

[Butter]

Alabama -25.5 @ South Carolina
Clemson -26.5 @ Syracuse

Both of these lines have already gone up 3 points since opening earlier today.

[Chief Rum]

I'm not betting the games but I am playjng a ton of daily fantasu and I have been trying to suss out how I feel about tonight's games.

My gut feel on NO-HOU is that NO wins going away.

Houston is adjusting to not having Miller, butba pass catching RB as their primary back and working in Hyde, whom they just signed (and Johnson is new too). They have added Tunsil on the line and Stills to the WRs. Coutee is inactive and Watson, while wildly talented, is still young.

Compare this to a Saints time led by a QB who can probably roll out of bed and throw a perfectly functional accurate pass up to 20 yards and have had their key new parts (Cook and Murray) in their camps all summer, and that suggest to me that they won't show the same rust the Texans will. Plus, I thimk the Saints have a better D now that Clowney is in Seattle.

The night game is a tougher read. Do the Raiders' rally around the controversy? My guess is that the Broncos will win a tough defensive contest, with a lot of offensive misfires on both sides.

[Butter]

I have a 7 point teaser on the games tonight:

Houston +14, Oakland +10

Both must win for the bet to win.

I also need Drew Brees to have a big night for my fantasy team.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm not betting the games but I am playjng a ton of daily fantasu and I have been trying to suss out how I feel about tonight's games.

My gut feel on NO-HOU is that NO wins going away.

Houston is adjusting to not having Miller, butba pass catching RB as their primary back and working in Hyde, whom they just signed (and Johnson is new too). They have added Tunsil on the line and Stills to the WRs. Coutee is inactive and Watson, while wildly talented, is still young.

Compare this to a Saints time led by a QB who can probably roll out of bed and throw a perfectly functional accurate pass up to 20 yards and have had their key new parts (Cook and Murray) in their camps all summer, and that suggest to me that they won't show the same rust the Texans will. Plus, I thimk the Saints have a better D now that Clowney is in Seattle.

The night game is a tougher read. Do the Raiders' rally around the controversy? My guess is that the Broncos will win a tough defensive contest, with a lot of offensive misfires on both sides.

This is why I'm not good at this.

[Lathum]

I've got Watson and Brees to combine for over 600 passing yards. Gonna be close

[Butter]

That amazing 2 play drive by Watson got you there.

I had a large bet at halftime of Texans TT O23.5... also didn't look good until that drive.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Butter

That amazing 2 play drive by Watson got you there.

I had a large bet at halftime of Texans TT O23.5... also didn't look good until that drive.

Nice.

I also had the game over so pretty happy with the results.

[Lathum]

One thing that doesn't get talked about, especially with more novice players is line shopping. I have just about every NJ app to do this. I just found a huge discrepancy and me and my boy Todd Wishnev agree its pretty stark.

On one site the Dolphins to go 0-16 is +850. Found it on another site at +3000. Crazy gap. Laid $300 to win 9K on it. Likely doesn't happen, but for those odds I can bet them as plus money ML dogs and hedge if I need to.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Lathum

One thing that doesn't get talked about, especially with more novice players is line shopping. I have just about every NJ app to do this. I just found a huge discrepancy and me and my boy Todd Wishnev agree its pretty stark.

On one site the Dolphins to go 0-16 is +850. Found it on another site at +3000. Crazy gap. Laid $300 to win 9K on it. Likely doesn't happen, but for those odds I can bet them as plus money ML dogs and hedge if I need to.

The way they looked this past weekend I love that play. +3000 to win a game is more like it

I mean they gave up 59 to a running team with a quarterback known for being able to run the ball. They let him pass at will. How will they stop any quarterback?

[kingfc22]

NCAAF I have:
WSU u76
WSU -7
West Virginia +7
Colorado -3.5
ND u61.5 (not feeling as good on this one now that the line has moved up)
ECU +7.5
Louisiana Tech -10

[Butter]

Here is what I have this weekend. As soon as I typed them out, I realized this is too many games. I got into this problem last year with College Basketball, spread myself too thin instead of hammering just a couple of games I really liked. Too late now!

Alabama -25' @ S. Carolina
Clemson -26' @ Syracuse
Maryland -7 (bought down from -7.5) @ Temple
Ohio St. -14 (bought down from -14.5) @ Indiana
Colorado -3 (bought down from -3.5) v. Air Force
Florida -8.5 @ Kentucky
Virginia -7 v. Florida St.
Oklahoma -22 @ UCLA
Wake Forest -3 v. UNC
Boston College -21 v. Kansas
NC State -7 @ W. Virginia

Panthers -6' v. Tampa Bay

5 team 13 point teaser @ -105:
New England -5'
Arizona +26'
Atlanta +14'
Minnesota +16
Browns +10'

And then smaller bets on higher lines:

Ohio St. -25 (+300)
Notre Dame -45 (+350)
Alabama -35 (+330)
Clemson -38 (+350)
Oklahoma -34 (+300)
Texas -42 (+350)

Figured these last six, all I need is 2 of the 6 to hit and I make a small profit. 3 hit, and I did really well. I feel really good about at least 2 of them hitting these spreads.

Parlayed the above six for less than a dollar at something like 600,000-to-1 odds.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

NCAAF I have:
WSU u76
WSU -7
West Virginia +7
Colorado -3.5
ND u61.5 (not feeling as good on this one now that the line has moved up)
ECU +7.5
Louisiana Tech -10

Really like your West Virginia +7. Nice find on Wizzou. Ive been seeing 8.5/9 on that line.

[jbergey22]

I have
W Virginia +7 WIN
E Michigan +7.5 WIN
Charlotte -20 WIN
Texas St +17 LOSS
Kansas +21.5(bought half) WIN

A couple parlays with
Miss St -8 LOSS
C Fla -8 WIN
BYU +4.5 WIN
FSU +7.5 WIN

and
Temple +7 WIN
S Car +25 WIN
Memphis -19 WIN
Arkansas -10 WIN

Ill be adding Iowa State if I can get +3 and Nebraska if I can get -13.5. A little curious as to why Arizona State is getting 14.5. Appears fishy so Im staying away with that west/east time zone thing. I figure Michigan State is only a little over a touchdown(8-10 points) better on neutral field.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Really like your West Virginia +7. Nice find on Wizzou. Ive been seeing 8.5/9 on that line.

I got WSU earlier in the week. Still looking at Pitt +17 but haven’t got myself to pull the trigger yet.

[QuikSand]

Anyone similarly fascinated by the ~19 point line for the Patriots on the road, against a team that (at least the team that used to wear the same laundry) tends to have their number in that setup?

[Butter]

It's an overreaction due to the two teams' Week 1 performances. Not touching it, but I could see both sides of the argument.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

A little curious as to why Arizona State is getting 14.5. Appears fishy so Im staying away with that west/east time zone thing. I figure Michigan State is only a little over a touchdown(8-10 points) better on neutral field.

Yes. Any bet that requires Michigan St. to score more than 20 points has to be questioned. They just haven't shown the ability with Lewerke at the helm.

[Lathum]

Darnold out Monday night. Has mono. Lol.

[kingfc22]

Added Pitt +17.5 and also had the u49 for tonight’s NFL game.

[Lathum]

Tool 2 live bets. Over 46.5 and over 49 both at +220. I see a pick 6 coming somewhere.

[Lathum]

Well that missed FG sucked.

Playing with house money. New book opened in NJ called Unibet. Risk free bet up to $250, meaning if you bet $250 and lose you get refunded. Decided to do the $250 on the Red Sox/ Blue Jays game over 10.5. Was 7-3 bottom 9 with 1 out, runner on second. Past ball moves runner to third, sac fly gives me the over with 2 outs in the ninth. Cashed out the $250 and playing with the white meat.