Werewolf LXXI - Doomsday (GAME OVER. WOLVES WIN!)

[jeheinz72]

For the record, I thought of putting myself in the top, and if this was one board where I had played all of my games, I would have. But I think in the scope of this board, I'd definitely be middle of the road compared to the people I listed as vets.

[jeheinz72]

And with that said, I even said I'd take a vet and a middle-of-the-road'er, so I'm not trying to sneak anything by so-to-speak.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Why ridiculous? And why would it warrant a vote?

'


its rediculous becasue it was a one word PM, how could i not quote it! and why does it warant a vote? I seem to be a day one vote getter every game, and your trying to put presure on me, cuz yhou know people will follow! very woflish!

[claphamsa]

and its not like were voting on a whole lot!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

maybe its just cuz ive played with him alot more than anyone here,... I would out him in a higher group, also he is the kind of person who would lower himself down so he couild sneek by.

Yeah, the fact that I haven't played with him as much could be it; on the other hand, I had Narcizo and mccollins as being "more chatty" in my mind. But I also had path as "less chatty" while Heinz had him in the complete opposite group. Opinions vary, plus I think Heinz's list had experience factored in more than mine.

[RendeR]

Villager checking in, won't be around till I get to work (after 2pm edt) talk to you then folks!

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

'


its rediculous becasue it was a one word PM, how could i not quote it! and why does it warant a vote? I seem to be a day one vote getter every game, and your trying to put presure on me, cuz yhou know people will follow! very woflish!

As I said above, My point wasn't that you shouldn't include the word in your PM, just to avoid calling out the fact that it was a one word PM. Don't you see the difference between this:

my pm was very complicated, it said.... villegar!

And this?

Hi all. Just a simple villager checking in.

One specifically references the words choice made by the game runner in the PM, which to a savvy player can use to help indicate whether the person making that claim is more likely to be a villager or not. Now, like I said before, I think that neon runs his games so that all roles might have one word PMs, but I'm not sure of that. So in this particular instance, it may not matter, but as a rule of thumb, I think statements such as yours lead to too much meta-gaming.

Clearly, it pissed you off, which wasn't my intent. I didn't think it was that big a deal, just wanted to throw out a simple reminder. But evidently, it wasn't taken with the spirit it was given. Ah well.

[PurdueBrad]

KWhit, I appreciate your explanation, I thought you may have been ticked at me for throwing out the word in my initial post so I kind of laid off the conversation but I get your point. Although it might be valuable information that in a lot of these games the wolves get a sample of the villager's PM anyway, which means that they could fake it as well.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Here's my estimation. Of course the catch is, who is the alpha wolf and what is their experience with each player. For example, someone who didn't play last game might write off mccollins as a newbie, but I think those that did would be in agreement that he's not.

Ditto someone (like mccollins let's say) who played last game but not in awhile would get a different read on NTNDeacon than those who have played with him multiple times.

Heavy Hitter (good wolf, but has notoriety)
1. Lathum
6. Passacaglia
9. Render
15. Path12

Middle of the road
2. TheJackal
3. PurdueBrad
4. Claphamsa
10. jeheinz72
12. Kwhit
14. ntndeacon


Could be seen as new, or plays infrequently enough that the Alpha may not have experience with them
5. nfg22
7. Narcizo
8. mccollins
11. Sonic Youth
13. Eaglefan - did he play a lot awhile back?
16. ImTheCrew - new?

Excuse the side comments, if I'm way off-base, just chalk it up to unfamiliarity not any sort of "slight"

Now if I were an alpha, and I got to choose 2 people (I'd presume we're more likely to see 13:3 than 12:4, IIRC Neon's rules are slightly tinged to the village) it'd be a tough call, and frankly, it depends on which of these groups the alpha himself falls into. For me though, I'd take a heavy hitter and a middle-of-the-road.

I find it interesting you put yourself middle of the road. I think most would consider you a very good player. This is by no means meant to offend anyone, but I honestly think a case can be made that you are a top 5 player.

Now it may just be modesty but it may be something else.

[Lathum]

dola- I see Kwits point and I think we can end the conversayion about it now, whats done os done and any further talk about it will be distracting.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

KWhit, I appreciate your explanation, I thought you may have been ticked at me for throwing out the word in my initial post so I kind of laid off the conversation but I get your point. Although it might be valuable information that in a lot of these games the wolves get a sample of the villager's PM anyway, which means that they could fake it as well.

Oh no. I myself used the word villager in my check in post. That's just kind of the catch all for "I'm a good guy," IMO, and pretty much the obligatory first post one makes after the roles are sent out - no matter what their real role is!



But I know personally, I've won 2 games JUST because a COT was formed because of semantic word usage stuff in their PMs that made it clear who the villagers were to each other. And that's not what should win/lose games. Because those games are no fun to play in.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- I see Kwits point and I think we can end the conversayion about it now, whats done os done and any further talk about it will be distracting.

Yep - agreed. Let's play werewolf.

[Lathum]

villager

[Lathum]

checking

[Lathum]

in

[claphamsa]

Clearly, it pissed you off, which wasn't my intent. I didn't think it was that big a deal, just wanted to throw out a simple reminder. But evidently, it wasn't taken with the spirit it was given. Ah well.[/quote]]


I got what you were saying, and I think its a reason to atack me

[claphamsa]

lathum is padding his post count already!

[claphamsa]

and he spelled villegar wrong!

[claphamsa]

althoguht techincially we are squaddies... right?

[Lathum]

Vote NTNDeacon

was very UTR last game and look where it got us. If I was the alpha wolf I would have at least one person who was a wolf last game on my team.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

If I was the alpha wolf I would have at least one person who was a wolf last game on my team.

I was thinking about that too, and it does seem like a sound strategy. Kind of reverse-psychology.

[nfg22]

I am the opposite of a wolf...and checking in...

[nfg22]

by the way. just to get a vote in like Claph says "Vote early and vote often."

Kwhit, you stole 250 dollars from me last game. Then you won. This game, you post a hek of alot more, which may mean you are a villegar or that you are switching it up to avoid suspicion. Dont be afraid tho i might change at any moment.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote NTNDeacon

was very UTR last game and look where it got us. If I was the alpha wolf I would have at least one person who was a wolf last game on my team.

Yeah, but Lathum, he wasn't a wolf last game. He just played very UTR, snuck through, and got away with not posting. I'm worried about losing him in the shuffle.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I was thinking about that too, and it does seem like a sound strategy. Kind of reverse-psychology.

KWhit, as the underground head from last game, you should've corrected Lathum here that ntn was not a wolf. Not trying to cast suspicion but come on, you had to know!

As for last game's successful wolves that are in this game, I believe it is just KWhit and Pass.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I also had path as "less chatty" while Heinz had him in the complete opposite group. Opinions vary, plus I think Heinz's list had experience factored in more than mine.

I think the problem with me is that although I post a slightly above average amount, I rarely have any insight so that people forget I've said anything.

Checking in, by the way. I always like this Alpha wolf picking the others dynamic, and I believe the speculation is worthwhile eventually, but until we get at least one wolf I think it usually leads to a bad lynch or two.

That said, I'm going to look over the signup list and give my thoughts as well.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

I think the problem with me is that although I post a slightly above average amount, I rarely have any insight so that people forget I've said anything.

Checking in, by the way. I always like this Alpha wolf picking the others dynamic, and I believe the speculation is worthwhile eventually, but until we get at least one wolf I think it usually leads to a bad lynch or two.

That said, I'm going to look over the signup list and give my thoughts as well.

I was thinking the opposite -- that you post a blow average amount but usually have pretty good insight, allowing you to fly under the radar sometimes and a keen player other times. Maybe I just don't have much of a read on you in general, though.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

KWhit, as the underground head from last game, you should've corrected Lathum here that ntn was not a wolf. Not trying to cast suspicion but come on, you had to know!

I see what you're saying. I just took his second sentence to be a separate thought. Here's what he said:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote NTNDeacon

was very UTR last game and look where it got us. If I was the alpha wolf I would have at least one person who was a wolf last game on my team.

I took the UTR part to be why he was voting for him and the second statement to be an additional strategic thought. But re-reading it, I see what you mean. It does sound like he was thinking NTNDeacon was a wolf last game, which he was not.

[nfg22]

Kwhit...Does your fur itch?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Kwhit...Does your fur itch?

Yes, it does...

*looks around surprised*

Did I really just say that!??! Crap!

*hits self in head repeatedly*

Stupid! Stupid! Stupid!

Darn, I wish I could edit this post.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by path12

I think the problem with me is that although I post a slightly above average amount, I rarely have any insight so that people forget I've said anything.

Checking in, by the way. I always like this Alpha wolf picking the others dynamic, and I believe the speculation is worthwhile eventually, but until we get at least one wolf I think it usually leads to a bad lynch or two.

That said, I'm going to look over the signup list and give my thoughts as well.

I tend to think that you don't post that much to be honest. But you've been a wolf 3 out of 5 games I've played and the other two times I had suspicions that you were a wolf so I'm probably not to be trusted in my read of you anyway.

As far as I can see the Alpha wolf dynamic is pretty much all we have to work with on day one, and to be fair, it's a lot more than in many normal games. Like you say, it may lead to some bad lynches but so does a random lynch. And, as with voting patterns, it's a factor that becomes increasingly useful once wolves are found.

[ntndeacon]

Of course last game. iwas severely under the radar even for me whose modus opporandi is UTR. Most of that was due to not checking the board over the weekend and Monday. So when idid come back Ihad no clue what was going on.

[KWhit]

Some guys that I have in mind as being that kind of middle of the road choice I was talking about earlier:

TheJackal
PurdueBrad
Narcizo
mccollins
Path12

Take this with a grain of salt. Other than last game, it's been a while since I played, so people's styles might be different than I'm remebering them.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Some guys that I have in mind as being that kind of middle of the road choice I was talking about earlier:

TheJackal
PurdueBrad
Narcizo
mccollins
Path12

Take this with a grain of salt. Other than last game, it's been a while since I played, so people's styles might be different than I'm remebering them.

And I'm usually in that category myself I suppose, but I know I'm not a wolf in this game.

[nfg22]

Well if i were a wolf...I would choose PB and Heinz. They are usually two pretty good villagers.

[path12]

OK. This so depends on who the Alpha is. A more experienced Alpha is going to choose a different type of team than a less experienced one. So let's look at it both ways.

Experienced Alpha. This is a guy who can come up with the kind of strategy he wants to play the game by, so doesn't need as much experience on his team. More likely to put a less experienced player on his side, as well as a middle tier guy.

Middle tier Alpha. Knows the game either from playing a bunch elsewhere or sporadically around here. Might be more likely to put one well-known wolf on his side, along with another middle tier or less experienced.

Newer Alpha. Will want to surround themself with players who can help advise on strategy. More likely to take experienced players.

Now, if I was Alpha I would want to take people who can drive discussion as a villager in order to both help steer speculation in a way that will benefit us, as well as be out there enough to avoid the dreaded UTR tag.

In order to go through the list of folks and figure out who that might be, I'm going to off the top of my head break us out into categories of: Better wolf than villager, good both ways, Better villager than wolf, and unknown. No offense meant by any of these in advance!

Better wolf than villager: Lathum, RendeR, ntndeacon, path12
Good both ways: Passacaglia, KWhit, jeheinz72
Better villager than wolf: PurdueBrad, Narcizo
Undecided where to place: Jackal, clapham, nfg22, mccollins, Sonic Youth, Eaglefan, ITC

The "good both ways" category is the most dangerous IMO. My vote is going there for today.

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[PurdueBrad]

For what you said Path, I'm picking a better wolf than villager person and preserving the good both ways people for now. But your way makes sense as well.

[Lathum]

dola- my bad, I got NTN and Taz mixed up, I was posting from class and wasn't paying a whole lot of attention.

UNVOTE NTN

It was an honest mistake and by no means a trap attempt, but intersting KWhit didn't correct me.

[jeheinz72]

Yeah, why would we want to eliminate the good both ways folks and keep the ones that are better wolves than villagers?

[path12]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, why would we want to eliminate the good both ways folks and keep the ones that are better wolves than villagers?

I'm saying that's who I think would be my prime pick as the Alpha. Of course it follows that my way is the absolute best way to make a pick.

Like I said, this is all speculation, but that's all we have for day 1. Once we find a wolf this line of thinking becomes more productive IMO because we can either work backwards (if the found wolf is not alpha) or take it from a "who would I have picked as this person" if we bag the Alpha.

[path12]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

For what you said Path, I'm picking a better wolf than villager person and preserving the good both ways people for now. But your way makes sense as well.

If you were the Alpha, why would you preserve those who you might see as good both ways? Preserve for what?

[PurdueBrad]

I agree with Path's move (I like mine as well) because just because they are balanced, the person still could be more dangerous as a wolf than a person whose personal skill is better as a wolf. I hope that makes sense.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by path12

If you were the Alpha, why would you preserve those who you might see as good both ways? Preserve for what?

Path, my bad for clarification (or lack thereof), I meant that I am picking (voting for) a person who is better as a wolf and preserving (not voting for) the balanced players right now.

[path12]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, why would we want to eliminate the good both ways folks and keep the ones that are better wolves than villagers?

One more thought regarding this: In the categories I mentioned above, the undecideds are probably the most dangerous, especially the ones who have played awhile but that I personally don't have a read on both ways, like Eaglefan, mccollins, Jackal.

[path12]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Path, my bad for clarification (or lack thereof), I meant that I am picking (voting for) a person who is better as a wolf and preserving (not voting for) the balanced players right now.

Gotcha.

[PurdueBrad]

Hey BK, disappointed you aren't my lover this game? Yeah, that's right, I leave 'em satisfied.

[path12]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I agree with Path's move (I like mine as well) because just because they are balanced, the person still could be more dangerous as a wolf than a person whose personal skill is better as a wolf. I hope that makes sense.

That explains it better than I was trying to, I think. The point is that those who are proven to be skilled both ways are the folks I would really want to have on my side because they can help steer discussion in thread.

Though those I listed as better wolves can usually play pretty good villagers also.

[The Jackal]

Well, I'm quite the regular villager unless I'm the holy mark or some such of role. I think maybe the wolves were put off by me blowing myself up last game. I'm dangerous like that.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- my bad, I got NTN and Taz mixed up, I was posting from class and wasn't paying a whole lot of attention.

UNVOTE NTN

It was an honest mistake and by no means a trap attempt, but intersting KWhit didn't correct me.

Like I said before, when I read it the first time, I didn't see it as a mistake. I thought you were making two separate statements. Seems obvious after re-reading it, but it didn't strike me that way when I first saw it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Like I said before, when I read it the first time, I didn't see it as a mistake. I thought you were making two separate statements. Seems obvious after re-reading it, but it didn't strike me that way when I first saw it.

I actually thought that, too. That is, I wasn't sure if Lathum had meant to connect the two or not -- but that could be because I saw KWhit's reply first.