2019 MLB Thread

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Its called free agency for a reason. It is a free market and the prices follow suit.

You are dumb if you dont just re-sign. The way teams are built, or can be built these days, 31 year old FAs are worthless.

It's not a free market because half the players are under team control and most of those are vastly underpaid. (Such as the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner being forced to sign a 1 year, $573,000 contract.) It used to be fine and "you get underpaid early, overpaid later" worked out in the aggregate, but now that teams are smarter about FA valuations and service time manipulation they're trying to keep underpaying players early on, and then no one is willing to overpay them later on.

The problem the union is going to run into is that the reforms that are needed will benefit future players, but won't help current players, so it could be very tough to get the players to present a united front and agree to the changes.

Originally Posted by miked

I don't know what people mean by less effective. In 2017 he posted his best WHIP and K/9 since his 2nd year or so. I had no idea he had been that dominant. But that's rich for a reliever. If BOS is willing to pay him 13M per, is 15-16 that crazy?

It's not the dollars per year, it's the year's they've been asking for. Though rumors are now that he's in talks with the Brewers on one of those one or two year high $$$ deals.

The Red Sox have a lot of goodwill right now and people weren't clamoring for Kimbrel back after his very shaky postseason (even though he was perfect in save opportunities! ), but that bullpen is looking pretty dicey right now so it's a little surprising they're not in the mix if Kimbrel is now willing to accept a short term deal. (Although bridges could have also been burned in negotiations earlier on.)

[lungs]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

It's not the dollars per year, it's the year's they've been asking for. Though rumors are now that he's in talks with the Brewers on one of those one or two year high $$$ deals.

I'm hoping something along the lines of 1 year/$20 million would get him to Milwaukee. Local beat writer thinks the Brewers are already stretched thin payroll wise, but he also said that before they dropped $27 million on Grandal and Moustakas. I don't think the Brewers are afraid to stretch their payroll into the $150 million range as a large chunk of these aren't long-term commitments. The window is wide open but the division will be more fierce this year with the Cards adding Goldschmidt and the Reds putting in an effort to win baseball games.

Adding Kimbrel to the back end of that bullpen would help cover up the mediocrity that is the starting pitching. Kimbrel, Hader, and Knebel would be a nice trio at the back end, especially considering Jeremy Jeffress came out throwing 85 MPH this spring and is going to start on the IL (I almost wrote DL). Let's see what happens....

[BishopMVP]

Wait, a regular season baseball game was played today?

[Vince, Pt. II]

And they have more Spring training games next week. So weird.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by miked

I don't know what people mean by less effective. In 2017 he posted his best WHIP and K/9 since his 2nd year or so. I had no idea he had been that dominant. But that's rich for a reliever. If BOS is willing to pay him 13M per, is 15-16 that crazy?

And in 2018 his WHIP was almost 50% higher than that stellar 2017 season. AND was worse than any of his last 3 seasons in Atlanta.

His SO/9 came back to relative Earth as well, and is actually less than his number in his first three seasons in the majors.

His two worst BB/9 seasons were sandwiched around that 2017 season you mentioned.

His K/BB was worse than his years in Atlanta.

Worse, less, down. An argument for the contract he's after might have been less ludicrous after 2017 instead of after 2018. Or when he was 25 instead of 31. As is, he's looking to get paid for what he doesn't seem likely to ever do again.

[PilotMan]

Ichiro is retiring after the game today. I thought he would play forever. Quite a talent.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Ichiro is retiring after the game today. I thought he would play forever. Quite a talent.

Moments like this always give me goosebumps. Even though he didn't get a hit today, the send off was still emotional.

[cartman]

My favorite Ichiro moments was a few years ago when I was driving with one of my aunts. We were listening to the Rangers/Yankees game in the car. The game was in New York, and the Rangers were up two in the bottom of the ninth. There were two on, and Ichiro came up to bat. My aunt asked, he doesn't hit home runs often, does he? I replied, no, he is more of a slap hitter. Not more than 5 seconds after I said that: "Here's the windup and the pitch... It's a high fly ball, and it's out of here! Yankees win!"

[tarcone]

Ichiro was amazing, I'm glad he went out like he did. Classy.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

It's not a free market because half the players are under team control and most of those are vastly underpaid. (Such as the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner being forced to sign a 1 year, $573,000 contract.) It used to be fine and "you get underpaid early, overpaid later" worked out in the aggregate, but now that teams are smarter about FA valuations and service time manipulation they're trying to keep underpaying players early on, and then no one is willing to overpay them later on.

The problem the union is going to run into is that the reforms that are needed will benefit future players, but won't help current players, so it could be very tough to get the players to present a united front and agree to the changes

I wont disagree that player control is too long. And loopholes are manipulated. But I will not cry over a player only making $573,000.
The people with the money drive the market. That is how it works.

[JPhillips]

I'll not cry over the owner making a little less. The money's being made, the question is how it is distributed between players and owners. The owners only control the market until the players refuse to work under those conditions.

[BishopMVP]

And Paul Dolan (a.k.a. the Indians owner) throws his hat in the ring to be known as the poster child for cheap sports owners Paul Dolan discusses the dollars and sense behind the Indians’ payroll, strategy and Francisco Lindor’s future – The Athletic

[Lathum]

Behind the paywall. Got the cliffsnotes?

[stevew]

Basically like "enjoy him, we won't sign Lindor to a big contract"

[SirFozzie]

Relevant Bits:

So, does owner Paul Dolan envision himself ever signing a player to, say, a 10-year, $300 million deal?

“You don’t know. Probably the day when we do a deal like that is when somebody else is doing $1 billion deals with somebody else.”

What, then, would he advise to fans who are already growing unsettled about Lindor’s future in Cleveland?

“Enjoy him,” Dolan said. “We control him for three more years. Enjoy him and then we’ll see what happens.”

This year, the Indians will arrive at Opening Day with a payroll about $15 million to $20 million less than their initial number for the start of the 2018 season. Dolan contends the Indians have lost money the last few years, though he insists “we’re not whining or complaining. It’s a challenge.”

Teams are not required to open their books to the public.
25-man Opening Day payroll, per Cot’s Contracts
2015: $88 million
2016: $96 million
2017: $124 million
2018: $135 million
2019: $117 million (projected)
Dolan noted that it’s easier to profit during “the down cycle,” those lean rebuilding years, since a team has less incentive to add established major-league talent to an undefined core. The Indians are attempting to stave off such a noncompetitive stretch. They retooled over the winter, but they clutched on to their collection of elite talent: a couple of MVP candidates on the left side of the infield and a stout starting rotation. The rest of the roster, of course, is littered with uncertainty, as ownership’s payroll mandate made it even more challenging to surround the core with proven pieces.

“We’re not going to outspend anybody,” Dolan said, “so we need to outsmart them.”

To do that, the organization has made recent investments in its academy in the Dominican Republic, its complex in Arizona, as well as in technology, sports science and analytics, all in an effort to foster a more effective player development culture.

“Nobody wants us to balance our checkbook,” Dolan said. “They just want to win, which we do, too. So, I understand that. I do think that once the season gets underway, it’s all about what that team is doing on the field, whether it’s a $220 million payroll or an $80 million payroll. It’s how we’re performing. So, we have to get to playing games.”

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Behind the paywall. Got the cliffsnotes?

So, does owner Paul Dolan envision himself ever signing a player to, say, a 10-year, $300 million deal?

“You don’t know. Probably the day when we do a deal like that is when somebody else is doing $1 billion deals with somebody else.”
...
[Dolan said] “where it is painful is when you have one of your own that you can’t keep because the market for them is set by larger markets.” He pointed to the Padres’ addition of Manny Machado on a 10-year, $300 contract. The Padres rank 24th in the league in payroll, five spots behind the Indians, per Spotrac.
...
Dolan contends the Indians have lost money the last few years, though he insists “we’re not whining or complaining. It’s a challenge… More often than not, we lose money,” Dolan said. “But we’ve made money in some years.” And it doesn’t come as a surprise when it happens, Dolan added.

(Dolan) noted that it’s easier to profit during “the down cycle,” those lean rebuilding years, since a team has less incentive to add established major-league talent to an undefined core.

“We’re not going to outspend anybody,” Dolan said, “so we need to outsmart them.”

.

[Lathum]

Frustrating, but the fans can blame themselves. 21st in attendance for a team that is a world series caliber squad. I have been to that park, great place to see a game.

That being said I don't buy the "losing money" bit for one second.

[JPhillips]

Even if he's lost money from an operating deficit, his asset has grown so much in value that he's way, way ahead.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Frustrating, but the fans can blame themselves. 21st in attendance for a team that is a world series caliber squad. I have been to that park, great place to see a game.

That being said I don't buy the "losing money" bit for one second.

They had that consecutive sellout record of 5+ seasons from 1995-2001, what happened since? Did the Browns coming back to town and the Cavs being good hurt the Indians, or were there other things the team has been doing that drove people away?

[lungs]

That article made me ponder Christian Yelich and the Brewers. I knew he was signed for a few more years, but had forgotten it was actually four more years. Sheesh. How much money did he leave on the table?

[Lathum]

Noah Syndergaard on Twitter: "Tarmac Twitter Q and A-Go!"

[Lathum]

Mets Reportedly Agree To Extension With Jacob deGrom - MLB Trade Rumors

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Mets Reportedly Agree To Extension With Jacob deGrom - MLB Trade Rumors

That's good news on both sides. He avoid arb next year, then is basically on a 2-yr deal getting paid top (2018) coin for 2 seasons more, then has an opt out year in 2023. So the team isn't locked in for too long if he can't stay healthy, but DeGrom only adds 2 more years before he can test FA again, and he makes a shit ton more money in the meantime.

[Logan]

Good deal both ways.

[Shkspr]

Note to Padres' brass: are you ABSOLUTELY SURE Tatis didn't need three more weeks in AA ball? Please?

[Vince, Pt. II]

My mom is so convinced that I am wrong about the Giants being bad this year that she has made a bet with me. If the Giants finish with 81 or more wins, she wins. Otherwise I win. Loser makes the winner dinner for a week straight.

I like my chances.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

My mom is so convinced that I am wrong about the Giants being bad this year that she has made a bet with me. If the Giants finish with 81 or more wins, she wins. Otherwise I win. Loser makes the winner dinner for a week straight.

I like my chances.

Vegas has them at 73.5.

[BishopMVP]

Speaking of over/unders

The SuperBook opened the over/under on the Orioles' season win total at 59.5. It's the lowest season win total that SuperBook oddsmakers have ever opened on a team, and it might not have been low enough: The number had been bet down to 58.5 as of Wednesday.

"Even though we've taken a lot of money [on the under], we've only moved it down one," Blum said. "We just think anything lower than that is kind of silly. To lose 100-plus games, it's hard, even if you're really bad."

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by lungs

That article made me ponder Christian Yelich and the Brewers. I knew he was signed for a few more years, but had forgotten it was actually four more years. Sheesh. How much money did he leave on the table?

The way front offices have operated the last two years?

Probably not much.

[spleen1015]

Watching Orioles/Yankees

Seen 4 RH hitters hit the ball right to the second baseman but there's a shift, so all singles.

[ISiddiqui]

I'm already deeming the Cano trade a win, I don't care what happens [/Opening Day Overreaction]

[tarcone]

Cardinals lose a tough one. Cant win them all.

Wong hit 2 HRs. Probably went from a $5 player to a $20 player in my roto league.

[PilotMan]

Looks like the Dodgers haven't solved their solo HR problem from last year.


ugh.

lol

{if today is the result of the problem though, I'll take it.}

[albionmoonlight]

I’m not a baseball guy, but Opening Day still means something in American sports that the other leagues just can’t match.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Cardinals lose a tough one. Cant win them all.

Wong hit 2 HRs. Probably went from a $5 player to a $20 player in my roto league.

About filled my drawers driving down I-94 listening to Uecker's call of Lo Cain robbing that homer.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Looks like the Dodgers haven't solved their solo HR problem from last year.


ugh.

lol

{if today is the result of the problem though, I'll take it.}

You're seriously complaining right now about the homers heing solos?

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You're seriously complaining right now about the homers heing solos?

YEAH! Of course, they hit 5 of them today. You have to wonder.....

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

YEAH! Of course, they hit 5 of them today. You have to wonder.....

They have definitely done it more station to station recently, but nothing wrong with that offense today.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Cardinals lose a tough one. Cant win them all.

Wong hit 2 HRs. Probably went from a $5 player to a $20 player in my roto league.

Cain robbed that one.

JMart needs to be in the lineup, I'm tired of Fowler already.

[Lathum]

Posted this over in the hardcore thread, but thought I would put it here also.

Does anyone do DFS? I play pretty seriously.



Off to a great start cashing in a bunch of tournaments last night.

I also won a $7 satellite in to their weekly $444 buy in $444K guaranteed tournament. First place is 100K, 1100 entrants. Rationally I know my investment is only $7, but I never play in a tournament for a buy in so high, $50 is about as high as I go, and usually play anywhere from $100-$200/ night. I play in tournaments every day with similar prize pools and prizes. The difference is those have 20K entries, not 1K, so you get a good lineup and you have a legit shot at huge money, just cashing pays $800, which I would be ecstatic with.

I have never been so stressed building a lineup, second guessing myself like crazy. I also usually run 5-10 different lineups in tournaments. Today I only did one. I couldn't handle it if the one I entered in the big tournament sucked and another one I had was good enough to cash, or even take it down.

For transparency here is my line up, barring any scratches from late games.

Marquez
Molina
Wong
Turner
DeJung
Pollock
Trout
Kiki
Freese

Went with Marquez due to cheaper salary than Cole, and his matchup against the MArlins in a pitchers park. Stacked the Dodgers 1-4, all guys who hit lefties well. Trout is Trout, and The Cards get a park boost against a guy who can be wild. The one guy I left off was Goldschmidt. I had to basically decide Trout or Goldy, and went Trout. He faces an extreme fly ball pitcher and took an 0-fer last night, so ownership could be down.

I think the Red Sox are a wild card on this slate, and Toronto/ Detroit will have a lot of high owned, cheap players.

Wish me luck.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The one guy I left off was Goldschmidt. I had to basically decide Trout or Goldy, and went Trout.

Oh man. You must be killing yourself about Goldschmidt.

I play a lot of DFS too, although not as much as you. Probably $20-30 per night or so.

I would have made the same decision as you. I also had Trout in a couple spots tonight and no Goldy. The matchup for Trout was fantastic.

[Lathum]

So. I am kicking myself a bit but I still finished 74th and solidly in the money. Hard to do the math because I don’t remember the prior construction but thengoldy swap could have cost me 3500. The thing I don’t remember is if I would have had Pollock in, whonwas also a monster. Still I parlayed $7 into 1k so I won’t complain.

[Lathum]

The more I think about it the lineup with Goldy didn’t have Pollock. I went dodgers heavy after scraping Goldy so I don’t think it made a huge difference.

[Warhammer]

It's not like Trout was a slouch, he only had an OPS of 1.350 for the game... If my math is right.

EDIT: My math wasn't right, should be now.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

It's not like Trout was a slouch, he only had an OPS of 1.350 for the game... If my math is right.

EDIT: My math wasn't right, should be now.

Goldy had 40 more fantasy points, so 1-1 it is a monster difference.

[Logan]

Good to see that the Hansel Robles "point straight up to tell your fielders the ball has been blasted to the moon" is still alive and well out in LA.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Goldy had 40 more fantasy points, so 1-1 it is a monster difference.

I get it, it is why I gave up fantasy sports. My point was it was not that you made a bad move, it just wound up being the suboptimal move. In football terms, Todd Gurley scored 20 points, but you’re upset cause you almost played Barkley who went off for 38 points.

[SackAttack]

Acuna apparently on the verge of signing an 8 year extension with Atlanta.

The market is broken, and front offices/ownership broke it deliberately. This spate of extensions plays directly into their hands and undermines the free agent market.

You don't get this spate of ALL THE PLAYERS SIGN EXTENSIONS when the market is working the way it's supposed to.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Acuna apparently on the verge of signing an 8 year extension with Atlanta.

The market is broken, and front offices/ownership broke it deliberately. This spate of extensions plays directly into their hands and undermines the free agent market.

You don't get this spate of ALL THE PLAYERS SIGN EXTENSIONS when the market is working the way it's supposed to.

LOL.

Acuna was making 560,000 this season, and was under contract through 2023. The new contract begins now, with an average value north of $12.5m annually.

[EagleFan]

Harper with a bomb in Washington. Nice start to the season so far. All 4 of the new guys are contributing well.

Oh, nice Philly representation down there in Washington. Probably more Phillies fans than Nationals fans.