Baseball Mogul 2006 Preview Thread (Yes, Virginia, there ARE lefties and righties!)

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by HomerJSimpson

Thanks for confirming I'm nt the only one on the l/r thing. Refusing to add that is suggests this programmer doesn't understand baseball, and therefore this game, no matter how many bells and whistles, is not worthy of my time. How can you make a baseball game for 7 years and not get one of the fundemental parts of the game in it? Baffling.

Read my other post on this. I can assure you that Clay understands the ins and outs of baseball very, very well. If there is a problem here, it is that he apparently listens too much to the feedback he gets, and not to his own knowledge of the game.

Remember, Jim commented that his #1-requested feature at one point was NFL Europe, for crying out loud. I'm glad he listened to his own football knowledge, and not the people that requested that, when considering where to spend his time on new versions.

[Huckleberry]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Read my other post on this. I can assure you that Clay understands the ins and outs of baseball very, very well. If there is a problem here, it is that he apparently listens too much to the feedback he gets, and not to his own knowledge of the game.

Remember, Jim commented that his #1-requested feature at one point was NFL Europe, for crying out loud. I'm glad he listened to his own football knowledge, and not the people that requested that, when considering where to spend his time on new versions.

I agree with your perception of the situation. I also agree it's never wise to exclusively listen to requests.

However, given that this appears to be the way Clay makes his decisions, I can live with it. But I would also think that when he begins to think about the next BBM version, it would seem Manager Firings/Signings and L/R Splits would be the first two features to be added based on the same feedback decision-making criterion.

edit - I'd like to add that based on the amount of work put into this version, the series has caught my eye again. Given my previously mentioned abandonment of the OOTP series (due both to its glitches - which include a L/R split system that makes no sense in the statistical results at times - as well as my time commitments), if BBM adds L/R splits with any level of success I will almost certainly purchase it.

[HomerJSimpson]

I love that my resoponse to Skydog's page three post is on page two. That begs the question, is anything ever going to be done about the timestamp bug?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by HomerJSimpson

Hasn't he been making this game from the begining? Then this couldn't have always been said about him, because I remember long ago when I purchased BM, and the chief complaint I saw on every messageboard/chat at that times was l/r. He has ignored this complaint for 7 years, and has cost himself many, many customers in the proccess.

Do you honestly think that Clay reads "every messageboard/chat?" And even if he did, let's go back to the NFL Europe FOF comparison. What those who hang out online can tend to forget is that a vast majority of the purchasers of these games never post on a message board. Jim said that himself about FOFC being a very small portion of his customer base. How often did you ever see NFL Europe requested at The Sideline or FOFC? Not often, and definitely not the most-requested feature. Yet, Jim said it was the #1-requested new feature. So, how can that be? Simple: people who never post at message boards were e-mailing him with feature requests. I'd be willing to bet that the same thing has been true for Mogul.

From personal experience, when I purchased the original Mogul, I was completely unaware that Usenet groups even existed, and I'd never posted at a message board. The only way I knew to give Clay feeback was via e-mail, and that's what I did back then, and over the years, that's been the primary way I've continued to give him feedback--even though he now has a board. I check the Mogul boards every couple of weeks or so, and I voted in the poll, but I certainly was nothing resembling an "active" user. (I have 30 posts in nearly 4 years, and half of those have been in the last two days.)

By the way, I think you should know that the IP issue has been fixed.


Ksyrup:

Same comment. Yes, you were pleading, but who knows how many dozens (hundreds) of e-mails he was getting asking for other stuff?

[Ben E Lou]

The good news is this: I'd imagine he'll be reading this discussion, and perhaps he'll take into account the people who have left over L/R splits.

[HomerJSimpson]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Do you honestly think that Clay reads "every messageboard/chat?" And even if he did, let's go back to the NFL Europe FOF comparison. What those who hang out online can tend to forget is that a vast majority of the purchasers of these games never post on a message board. Jim said that himself about FOFC being a very small portion of his customer base. How often did you ever see NFL Europe requested at The Sideline or FOFC? Not often, and definitely not the most-requested feature. Yet, Jim said it was the #1-requested new feature. So, how can that be? Simple: people who never post at message boards were e-mailing him with feature requests. I'd be willing to bet that the same thing has been true for Mogul.

From personal experience, when I purchased the original Mogul, I was completely unaware that Usenet groups even existed, and I'd never posted at a message board. The only way I knew to give Clay feeback was via e-mail, and that's what I did back then, and over the years, that's been the primary way I've continued to give him feedback--even though he now has a board. I check the Mogul boards every couple of weeks or so, and I voted in the poll, but I certainly was nothing resembling an "active" user. (I have 30 posts in nearly 4 years, and half of those have been in the last two days.)

By the way, I think you should know that the IP issue has been fixed.


Ksyrup:

Same comment. Yes, you were pleading, but who knows how many dozens (hundreds) of e-mails he was getting asking for other stuff?

I would think he was reading his own messageboard, which is where these discussions were taking place. Ben, are you seriously comparing adding NFL Europe to a football game to adding L/R splits to a baseball game? IF Clay knows baseball as you claim, surely he knows that L/R splits are an important part of the game, therefore he wouldn't need to be told. If he does need constant reminders to add fundemental parts of baseball to a sim game, then he does not know the game!

Ben, it is him, not you. Stop trying to defend the indefensible.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by HomerJSimpson

Ben, are you seriously comparing adding NFL Europe to a football game to adding L/R splits to a baseball game?

If his business model (as it would appear) is "listen to the customer base's feedback, to the exclusion of everything else" then of COURSE I am:

Jim customer base: "We want NFL Europe."
Clay customer base: "We want these 5 to 7 feature more than we want L/R splits."

Again, if you're listening to NOTHING ELSE (as it would appear..they just went straight down the list and put the stuff in), then of course it is a correct comparison.

When did I try to defend the perceived business model?? I said from the start that I think it is a bad idea. I'm not defending it, just offering what appears to be a very plausible answer to the original question I was asked: "Why isn't this in the game?"

[Buccaneer]

Is SD the only previewer? Is there anyone over at Clay's board that have done some tests with historical players and simulation mode?

[HomerJSimpson]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

If his business model (as it would appear) is "listen to the customer base's feedback, to the exclusion of everything else" then of COURSE I am:

Jim customer base: "We want NFL Europe."
Clay customer base: "We want these 5 to 7 feature more than we want L/R splits."

Again, if you're listening to NOTHING ELSE (as it would appear..they just went straight down the list and put the stuff in), then of course it is a correct comparison.

When did I try to defend the perceived business model?? I said from the start that I think it is a bad idea. I'm not defending it, just offering what appears to be a very plausible answer to the original question I was asked: "Why isn't this in the game?"

But if that was his business model, then L/R splits would have been in the second incarnation. And if he knew baseball, he would never had made the first without it.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by HomerJSimpson

But if that was his business model, then L/R splits would have been in the second incarnation.

How do you know that it was the most-requested feature after the first version? Again, if you'd read The Sideline and FOFC, you never would have guessed that NFL Europe was the most-requested FOF new feature (apart from when Jim said it).

And if he knew baseball, he would never had made the first without it.

And if Jim knew football, he would never have made the first without competitive bidding for free agents. And if Markus knew baseball, he would never have made the first without L/R splits. And if Jim knew football, he would never have made the first without play-action passing. And if Markus knew baseball, he would never have made the first without being able to play more than one season. And if Jim knew football, he would never have made the first without draft booms and busts. And if Markus knew baseball, he would never have made the first (oh wait, first, second, third, fourth and fifth) with pitchers striking out 30 batters, walking 100, and winning 20 games. And if Jim knew football.........

I think you get the point.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Is there anyone over at Clay's board that have done some tests with historical players and simulation mode?

www.sportsmogul.com

Once you get there, Malleus Dei told me to tell you to read this:

[CraigSca]

Clay has obviously made a conscious decision to not have L/R splits in his game. However, that doesn't mean that he doesn't know baseball as HS has said about 5000 times.

When designing a game, you have to make decisions of what you can include and what you cannot. When I was designing FB, I made a decision to include L/R splits as I think they are paramount to keep the game true to the sport. I did not include groundpall pitcher vs. flyball hitter (and vice versa) which research has shown has the almost the same effect as L/R splits. You can't have everything.

That being said, from a personal point of view, I can't understand why Clay would not include such a thing in his game. It's not a choice I would have made. However, it doesn't mean he doesn't know baseball.

[HomerJSimpson]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

How do you know that it was the most-requested feature after the first version? Again, if you'd read The Sideline and FOFC, you never would have guessed that NFL Europe was the most-requested FOF new feature (apart from when Jim said it).

And if Jim knew football, he would never have made the first without competitive bidding for free agents. And if Markus knew baseball, he would never have made the first without L/R splits. And if Jim knew football, he would never have made the first without play-action passing. And if Markus knew baseball, he would never have made the first without being able to play more than one season. And if Jim knew football, he would never have made the first without draft booms and busts. And if Markus knew baseball, he would never have made the first (oh wait, first, second, third, fourth and fifth) with pitchers striking out 30 batters, walking 100, and winning 20 games. And if Jim knew football.........

I think you get the point.

Again, this is my opinion, and no argument is going to change my opinion. If Marcus didn't add L/R splits, I would never had bought his game (and my first version of OOTP was 3. And I do think there was a lot about baseball Marcus didn't know even then, but he seemed to WANT to get the fundementals right). If Jim hadn't continued adding the fundementals of football, I would have stopped buying his product. If Marc's team had continually ignore the fundementals of soccer, they would have never become what they are. And Clay has continued to ignore the fundemental of baseball, therefore will not get my money.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

Clay has obviously made a conscious decision to not have L/R splits in his game. However, that doesn't mean that he doesn't know baseball as HS has said about 5000 times.

When designing a game, you have to make decisions of what you can include and what you cannot. When I was designing FB, I made a decision to include L/R splits as I think they are paramount to keep the game true to the sport. I did not include groundpall pitcher vs. flyball hitter (and vice versa) which research has shown has the almost the same effect as L/R splits. You can't have everything.

That being said, from a personal point of view, I can't understand why Clay would not include such a thing in his game. It's not a choice I would have made. However, it doesn't mean he doesn't know baseball.

I agree with pretty much everything you've said there.

[SirFozzie]

No L/R splits?

No way.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Huckleberry

Given my previously mentioned abandonment of the OOTP series (due both to its glitches - which include a L/R split system that makes no sense in the statistical results at times - as well as my time commitments), if BBM adds L/R splits with any level of success I will almost certainly purchase it.

Just wanted to expand on this comment which was made in passing. Has anyone looked into whether OOTP's L/R splits make much sense, or are at least somewhat realistic? I just don't recall much "investigation" into this particular area of OOTP in the past. Are we unfairly criticizing BBM for not having something another game has, but might as well not have due to implementation issues?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

SD,

How do the BB/K correlations look with pitchers and hitters? For example, in the data you posted above, I see a guy with 129/54 BB/K numbers, yet he only hit .270. Are power pitchers with some control typically better than most soft-tossers, and are the guys with good BB/K ratios typically the best hitters?

On a whole, "out of the box," do the league ERAs/Avgs/HRs, etc., seem reasonable? If one was to start a historical career, do the numbers reflect the era, or is there some sort of file we have to manipulate for hours (like in OOTP) to get the era setting down right?

I know some of these aren't questions you can answer at this point, but they are questions I'm interested in hearing answers to, as they will probably determine whether I give this game a try. I lost interest in OOTP last year, most likely because setting up my leagues was too hard, and I got sick of having to run multiple tests to make sure the "deadball" era simmed properly. Too much work.

I'm creating an export with the stats of every player in the current season, so you can take a look more carefully. I'm posting overall league totals right now, because I want to get rid of players with <200 AB's, for better sorting when looking at BB/K ratio players. Here are the totals (for both leagues, combined)

AB: 171412
H: 45153
2B: 7795
3B: 899
HR: 5332
RBI: 21955
R: 22552
K: 32450
BB: 16069
SF: 760
AVG: .263
OBP: .327
SLG: .413
SB: 2100
CS: 837

[Suicane75]

So this game doesn't have L/R Splits? Just Kidding.

I'm on another fence entirely concerning this issue. The original mogul for me was about fun, fast simming. With a good deal of baseball strategy yes, but really, it was about building a winning team, making money, and zooming ahead. The problem came when the game never advanced at all, year after year after year.

I didn't need it to be FOF or even OOTP when it came to "playing" the game, ie: managing, the ins and outs of day to day baseball, but I did want some advancement, and none came.

Looking at some of the improvements, such as the draft, historical aspects, easy print outs and some of the other stuff, I can honestly say that L/R splits don't bother me that much at all.

I guess my point is that I want BM to be the way it was, only a little more advanced.
I don't need L/R splits for that.

[Ben E Lou]

OK. The entire hitter file:

http://www.benelou.com/hittingstatsall.xls

This is every player who got an at-bat in 2041.

[QuikSand]

While this debate over L/R issues is getting a little redundant, let me offer one additional perspective to it. (In no small part because we seem to have the geenral attention of the designer)


For me, I can be very comfortable with a sports sim that does not completely and faithfully represent every facet of the sport -- and in concept, I could probably be okay with a baseball game that didn't include an element as important as left/right splits. I may not speak for a huge contingent here, but I could live with out it, on its own.

However, specific to baseball, and specific to left/right splits -- this is a pretty big part of "team strategy" in a baseball sim, and to me, it's a pretty significant part of what we do in a sports sim. Strictly speaking as a selfish sports sim gamer, I want to be doing things in these games that are meaningful -- these meaningful decisions both add to my basic immersion into the game, and contribute (mightily, I'd say) to the game's overall playability. L/R splits add a good deal in this regard -- when managing a baseball team, I *like* the idea that I can make a fre agency decision to go with two cheap platoon-caliber players at a certain position, I *like* the idea that I can get maximum value out of a left-handed bullpen specialist, and so forth. These things -- though none of them all that monumental in the big picture -- add up to the sort of incremental decision-making that, in my judgment, ought to be the foundation of a baseball simulation. I have said here before that I think baseball sims have an inherent weakness of "not having enough to do" -- I just don't think the genre can stand a dumbing-down like this, which also serves to remove legitimate, and potentially interesting, elements of simulation strategy. (Independent of how important they truly might be in real life baseball)


Hope that perspective copntributes something.

[Ben E Lou]

Looking at the Top 20 guys in terms of BB/K (>200 AB's):

• All batted at or above the league average of .263
• 16 batted .280 or higher
• 9 batted .300 or higher

You have to go down to #23 on the list (Davin Sockhausen, 53 K, 55BB, .243) to find a guy who hit under .263.

Then, sorting on the top 20 guys in terms of AVG (>200 AB's):

• 17 had ratios >.500
• 10 had ratios >.750
• 6 had ratios >1.000

In total, there were 28 players in the league with >200 AB's with a BB/K ratio at or above 1.000. On the whole, this group batted .290 and slugged .489.

I don't know the exact MLB numbers, but it definitely can be said that guys with high BB/K ratios translate into good hitters as a group.

[rjolley]

Yeah, I'll have to agree with SD on this one. I think BBM has always tried to be a simple, quick, fun way to manage baseball. You don't have to get as bogged down in the details. Was that the best way then? Yes, I loved BBM when it first came out, talked to Clay quite a bit about it, and played it often.

But the market has changed since then. OOTP has become the main computer baseball sim, Puresim is in the market, and BBM is still around. It seems as though Clay has decided to keep the game in the light, quick, fun vein instead of taking it into a simulation of the sport in the same vein as OOTP and Puresim. While some may not agree with that decision, I don't have an issue with it. Why? Because the game is still fun. No need to warm up a lefty to go up against a left handed hitter, then trot in a right hander to face the next hitter, who is right handed? Ok, that's fine. I'll just trot out my best pitcher available to face the hitter, regardless of the side he bats on. That's the way I like to manage anyway.

By no means am I saying the L/R splits aren't important. All I'm saying is just because the game doesn't have them doesn't mean it can't be fun. Just means it's one less thing to think about in building your team.

Oh, I think I thought of an analogy to another sport for the L/R split....it's like leaving out matchups in a basketball sim and just having team defense. And that may bother me, but I enjoy basketball a lot more than baseball, so that's probably why.

[Ben E Lou]

PITCHING STATS: http://www.benelou.com/fofc/pitchersall.xls

[JasonC23]

So let me get this straight...BM doesn't have NFL Europe?

[Ben E Lou]

>50 IP, sorting on K/BB. Of the top 20...

• 15 had ERA's of 4.00 or less
• 11 had ERA's of 3.50 or less
• 3 had ERA's of 3.00 or less

Of the top 20 ERA pitchers....

• 15 had K/BB ratios of 1.75 or better
• 13 had K/BB ratios of 2.0 or better
• 8 had K/BB ratios of 2.25 or better

In all, 43 pitchers had K/BB ratios of 3.00 or better, as a group, they were 326-240 with a 3.91 ERA. (NL ERA was 4.21, AL ERA was 4.45).

[oykib]

If BBM had L/R splits, Clay would get my money.

As things stand, I'll take a wait and see approach.

[Huckleberry]

Can someone point me to the real-life study that shows BB/K ratio for a hitter correlates highly with batting average? With two young children, I've been out of the baseball research loop more than I'd like, but I don't agree that this is necessary intuitively.

I would think it would correlate with OBP more than AVG.

I'm aware of the correlation to pitcher success, but was under the impression it didn't translate nearly as well to hitting.

[Ben E Lou]

Heh. I had promised myself I wouldn't go back to this discussion, but I was curious, did a search, and look what turned up:

How important is the addition of Lefty/Righty stats to Baseball Mogul Online? You have already voted on this poll.
Essential		4	8.89%
Very Important		12	26.67%
Somewhat Important		18	40.00%
Not Important		11	24.44%
Total:		45 votes	100%

You can read that poll any way you want to, actually, due to the wording. The "somewhat important" category is a little nebulous. You could say, "well, over 3/4's of people responding said that it is at least somewhat important." Or you could say, "only 1/3 of the people responding said it was very important to them." It was taken in 2001, not very long after they first put a message board up.

[Ben E Lou]

OK. Time to start in on a dynasty. I'll take over the Braves at the end of the 2041 season, so I start right into the offseason. The first thing I notice, when going to look at the team history, is that there is a clickable button that I missed--a nice little addition to team history:



The recent history is what I'd planned on posting, and here it is:



The Bravos finished 75-87 (4th) in the just-completed 2041 season.

[Jeff Olsen]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Just wanted to expand on this comment which was made in passing. Has anyone looked into whether OOTP's L/R splits make much sense, or are at least somewhat realistic? I just don't recall much "investigation" into this particular area of OOTP in the past.

I don't know about accurate but they are most definately random. The Lahman database doesn't include split stats so OOTP and the other games that use it have to create the splits themselves. The actual split stats are available - from companies like STATS, Inc. - which are far too expensive for small companies like OOTP Developments and Sports Mogul. Even big companies like EA have been loath to pay for them.

Are we unfairly criticizing BBM for not having something another game has, but might as well not have due to implementation issues?

The implementation of split stats have been an issue for Sports Mogul ever since BBM '99. The question has always been "How?", not "Why?'. As for the "Why not?", I think it's that Clay & Ian don't want to and the codes just to go the random route like everyone else. If they could get them for free, they'd likely jump at it in a heartbeat.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Jeff Olsen

I don't know about accurate but they are most definately random. The Lahman database doesn't include split stats so OOTP and the other games that use it have to create the splits themselves. The actual split stats are available - from companies like STATS, Inc. - which are far too expensive for small companies like OOTP Developments and Sports Mogul. Even big companies like EA have been loath to pay for them.The implementation of split stats have been an issue for Sports Mogul ever since BBM '99. The question has always been "How?", not "Why?'. As for the "Why not?", I think it's that Clay & Ian don't want to and the codes just to go the random route like everyone else. If they could get them for free, they'd likely jump at it in a heartbeat.

I'm not talking in terms of accuracy for real players, but rather, is there some rhyme or reason for certain players in the game (real or not) being historically poor hitters against lefties, or that the splits aren't just random year-after-year. For example, do the OOTP stats tend to show that a lefty hitter may hit .200 one year against lefties, but .320 the next, then .220, etc., or is there some continuity there?

I'm more of a fictional player myself, so I don't care about the real-life guys having the correct splits. I just want a poor lefty hitter to always have that problem. A Ryan Klesko (or hell, even John Lowenstein) type.

[Jeff Olsen]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'm not talking in terms of accuracy for real players, but rather, is there some rhyme or reason for certain players in the game (real or not) being historically poor hitters against lefties, or that the splits aren't just random year-after-year. For example, do the OOTP stats tend to show that a lefty hitter may hit .200 one year against lefties, but .320 the next, then .220, etc., or is there some continuity there?

Ah, OK. I believe once OOTP has established the splits, they are consistent.

Your being more interested in fictional leagues probably removes you from BBM's core fanbase anyway.

[ScottVib]

Actually I used to create fictional leagues with BB Mogul back when I used to play it. I would go through and delete every team and all free agents... then go through and create your new league.

Once that is done, you would have an entirely fictional league. With the one constraint that the first batch of players would all become FA's at the same time and everyone had the same payroll for awhile.

It was a good time. I miss the dominance of my Ozarks Militia in Mogul 2000.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Jeff Olsen

Your being more interested in fictional leagues probably removes you from BBM's core fanbase anyway.

That is a *stunning* statement. As fast as Mogul plays, you're into an all-fictional league in a flash. If I recall, I would routinely get through 5-10 seasons in one 2-3 hour evening gaming session. That makes the universe all-fictional pretty quickly. Keep in mind that the database importing is a relatively recent addition to the game.

[CraigSca]

Interesting that you point this out, Ksyrup. Especially in the case of small sample sizes against lefty pitchers you're going to see variances like the ones you listed no matter what. But, I get your point...

Regarding the OOTP lefty/righty code...you'd have to ask Markus himself. I know how the pitcher/batter interaction works at a macro level, but as to how he creates the individual attributes (like lefty/right splits), I'm not sure. I'm not even sure if yearly variances in particular statistics are "created" or if they're purely by chance.

[dawgfan]

OK, yet another post on the L/R issue:

I've worked with Clay before on a baseball game. When I was working on the Microsoft Baseball games for the PC, we licensed BBM to be implemented in the 2001 edition and he spent some time up in Redmond working on implementing the BBM code into our game. It didn't work out that well, but that was mainly due to our interface not working smoothly (it was too slow) and the difficulty of trying to marry the two disparate code bases in a too-short amount of time. Anyway, my point being that accusing Clay of not knowing baseball is laughable; I can tell you from personal experience, and just looking at his work background refutes that idea.

Mogul was obviously created as a simple, quick dynasty baseball game that was focused as much (if not more) on the finances of running a franchise as it was on actual baseball strategy. I'll venture an educated guess that Clay didn't leave L/R splits out because he didn't know baseball, but because in the grand scheme of things, the amount of time necessary to code that into the game wasn't worth the effort for the kind of product he was aiming for.

I'm speculating now, and guys like Craig or Arlie can chip-in and tell me if I'm right or not, but I suspect that to add L/R splits to his game would force Clay to have to re-write from scratch his entire simulation engine as well as make huge modifications to how he tracks data. Such a task would be a major, fundamental overhaul of the game. I'll hazard a guess that all these additions Clay is making for BBM2K6 took less time than re-writing the game to include L/R splits. Given that he has a customer base already that seems to be OK with the L/R split not in there, I can see why it hasn't been Clay's #1 priority.

FWIW, I can live without the L/R in that game - if I'm playing Mogul, I accept the fact that the sim engine is a simplified version of reality. I'm playing mogul more for the finances, the quick-simming of dynasties, the negotiations, building a roster, etc.

Don't get me wrong - I'd love to play a sophisticated baseball text sim that had L/R splits, groundball vs. flyball splits, DIPS, and all the rest to ensure the sim engine produced results that match what we know from sabermetric research, and packaged in a dynasty mode with financial models and all the rest like FOF and BBM and the rest.

But I can also see the appeal of playing BBM, and until Jim produces Front Office Baseball or a major improvement happens in OOTP, I may well decide to spend some money on BBM and have fun with it.

[condors]

any chance you could sorta play a game out?

i am interested in play as a manager (l/r splits are something i don't understand not having in but i am most likely going to buy it either way)

[Ben E Lou]

CURRENT SITUATION

FAN LOYALTY: C

FARM SYSTEM: C+

SCOUTING: C+ (margin for error is +/- 9)

MEDICAL STAFF: B

CASH ON HAND: $16.3M

PAYROLL: $65.3M (Yankees are highest at $214.9M, Brewers lowest at $15.3M. 15 teams fall in the $60M-$90M range.)







Our ticket prices are tied for lowest in the majors.



TOP PROSPECTS

OK. First off, as I briefly mentioned, the ratings run from 50-100 in this game, and the help file says that: "A '75' indicates average ability in an area. However, players who contribute reliably at the major league level will usually have a number of ratings of '80' or better " So, with that being said, here are our top 5 prospects, according to the game. (Remember, that the margin for error is +/- 9 points--pretty significant, I think.)



3B Sean Shively--This 20-year-old is rated 65 current/80 peak. His ratings are:

Contact: 48

Power: 71

Speed: 76

Eye: 71



Shively was drafted 2(9) in 2039. He had two pretty rough years in rookie ball in '39 and '40, but hit .290 with 33 HR's in a third year at the rookie level this year.



NOTE: FROM HERE ON OUT, BATTERS WILL BE LISTED AS 65/80 (48/71/76/71), MEANING CUR/PEAK (CON/PWR/SPD/EYE)



RF Theo Aubrey--60/78 (46/70/77/66). 1(11) pick last year. 18 years old. Hit .255-20-71-.784 in rookie ball this year.

2B Earl Varchal--51/71 (61/64/60/71). 4(9) pick in '39. Hasn't hit above .253 in rookie ball

SS Alain Legrand--58/71 (61/64/71/64). 4(20) pick by Anaheim in '39. Given unconditional release mid-year in '39. Signed Jan. 2040 by Atlanta. Three uneventful seasons in rookie ball so far.

SP Richard Brecks--71/83 (83/67/83/78) (END/CNT/PWR/MOV for pitchers)--1(9) pick in '39. Made it to AAA this year, was 5-5, 4/94 ERA in 102 IP in AAA.



Well, if these are our top prospects, and we haven't won the division in over a dozen years, I've got some work to do.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by condors

any chance you could sorta play a game out?

i am interested in play as a manager (l/r splits are something i don't understand not having in but i am most likely going to buy it either way)

I'm not sure you CAN play a game out as a manager. This is definitely a career, GM-oriented game. I *think* you can watch a game play out, but not manage it. Let me double-check...

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I'm not sure you CAN play a game out as a manager. This is definitely a career, GM-oriented game. I *think* you can watch a game play out, but not manage it. Let me double-check...

Just checked. Unless I'm missing something, you can't manage games.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

Interesting that you point this out, Ksyrup. Especially in the case of small sample sizes against lefty pitchers you're going to see variances like the ones you listed no matter what. But, I get your point...

Regarding the OOTP lefty/righty code...you'd have to ask Markus himself. I know how the pitcher/batter interaction works at a macro level, but as to how he creates the individual attributes (like lefty/right splits), I'm not sure. I'm not even sure if yearly variances in particular statistics are "created" or if they're purely by chance.

And that's why I'm wondering if this even being in BBM matters. If it's in OOTP, but it really is random or has no continuity or historical relevance, then it's somewhat of a placebo. In playing a game of OOTP, you could make the decision to bring in a lefty to face a lefty in a key situation, but if the result is random, what did that really get you? If it is going to be implemented, I'd expect to be able to approximate sitting on the bench and looking at "the book" on a particular hitter to determine whether he is historically a better or worse hitter (or pitcher, on the flip side) against one side or the other. If that isn't happening, then I guess you can fake it by going through the motions, but it might as well not even be in there.

HOWEVER...in OOTP, at least, I believe the game does take those kinds of substitutions into account when simming games, so at least it's approximating real baseball. I'm assuming BBM wouldn't have that kind of coding in it, regardless of whether L/R splits are in the game. So in terms of looking at PBP and the manner in which pitchers/hitters are used, BBM doesn't take that into account.

Again, like QS mentioned way back, its these little decisions that make the games fun. Part of filling out your roster is having a balanced bullpen, lineup, and bench. That is completely removed from BBM. Hell, some teams rearrange their starting rotation to get certain-handed pitchers in the rotation against certain teams, and lineups are set up L/R/L/R to avoid giving the other team the ability to use a reliever for one than one batter. All of that is missing from BBM - unless you want to play by your own, made-up rules, and completely ignore that it makes no difference.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

Well, without knowing how Clay has written BBM, it's obviously pure speculation on my part...but...

I really don't think it would be too much of an addition as far as the engine itself goes. The ramifications are probably greater in the AI portion of the game. The field management and general management AI code now must look at players in other roles, rather than making decisions based purely on "who is better?". For instance, the field manager would try to gain certain advantages late in the game by utilizing lefty/righty strategies. The general manager would have to look at things like - do I have a lefty bat off the bench? I'm sure the AI looks at some of these things, but in a simplistic manner.

Adding additional complexities like lefty/righty splits would probably force major re-writes of the AI code, but the actual implementation of the impact on the batter/pitcher interaction would be small.

Well, "handedness" is already in the game--has been for a few versions now. Right now, it has no impact on performance that I know of (queue ominous Grassy Knoll music), but there's a "bats" and "throws" field for every player in the game--including fictional players.

[CraigSca]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

I suspect that to add L/R splits to his game would force Clay to have to re-write from scratch his entire simulation engine as well as make huge modifications to how he tracks data. Such a task would be a major, fundamental overhaul of the game.

Well, without knowing how Clay has written BBM, it's obviously pure speculation on my part...but...

I really don't think it would be too much of an addition as far as the engine itself goes. The ramifications are probably greater in the AI portion of the game. The field management and general management AI code now must look at players in other roles, rather than making decisions based purely on "who is better?". For instance, the field manager would try to gain certain advantages late in the game by utilizing lefty/righty strategies. The general manager would have to look at things like - do I have a lefty bat off the bench? I'm sure the AI looks at some of these things, but in a simplistic manner.

Adding additional complexities like lefty/righty splits would probably force major re-writes of the AI code, but the actual implementation of the impact on the batter/pitcher interaction would be small.

[CraigSca]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

And that's why I'm wondering if this even being in BBM matters. If it's in OOTP, but it really is random or has no continuity or historical relevance, then it's somewhat of a placebo. In playing a game of OOTP, you could make the decision to bring in a lefty to face a lefty in a key situation, but if the result is random, what did that really get you? If it is going to be implemented, I'd expect to be able to approximate sitting on the bench and looking at "the book" on a particular hitter to determine whether he is historically a better or worse hitter (or pitcher, on the flip side) against one side or the other. If that isn't happening, then I guess you can fake it by going through the motions, but it might as well not even be in there.

I'm sorry - I may have misunderstood you or vice versa. I wasn't saying the L/R splits in OOTP (or originally in FB) are random at all. What I was trying to say (and Bill James writes an excellent article about this in the latest Baseball Research Journal) is that there's a fog of war in every "average" statistic. Therefore, even if a player is hard-coded to bat .270 in OOTP (.240 vs. righties, 300 vs. lefties), his sample size against lefties (inherently smaller than righties) will automatically create large variances in his yearly output. As the atbats accrue, the batter's statistics will more closely resemble his true value.

Now, when I was saying that some stats could change from year to year - original FB had a slight variance as each year began. Basically, a .270 hitter might actually be hard-coded to hit .280 one year, .275 the next and .260 the following year (not even counting the other attributes like career curve, ballparks, etc). There was a built-in variance that I put in above and beyond the pure randomness of rolling a 1000-sided die 600 times (600 atbats).

Though I did not have the actual split code (or know how Markus put it together) I woukld be SHOCKED if the hard-coded splits were more or less random from year to year.

[CraigSca]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Well, "handedness" is already in the game--has been for a few versions now. Right now, it has no impact on performance that I know of (queue ominous Grassy Knoll music), but there's a "bats" and "throws" field for every player in the game--including fictional players.

Right - it's easy to have "handedness" when it has no impact on any part of the game. It was always fun to put height and weights attached to players in FB, but they didn't do a damn thing either. Eye-candy, really.

[Jeff Olsen]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

That is a *stunning* statement. As fast as Mogul plays, you're into an all-fictional league in a flash. If I recall, I would routinely get through 5-10 seasons in one 2-3 hour evening gaming session. That makes the universe all-fictional pretty quickly. Keep in mind that the database importing is a relatively recent addition to the game.

Yeah, but it's always been aimed at those who are mainly interested in starting out with the current season, not those mainly interested in fiction.

[henry296]

I know dawgfan was speculating that it would require a code re-write, but as a non programmer, I think it might not be that hard.

Every player has a rating for Power, Contact, etc that feeds into the sim engine to determine the outcome of each at bat. Is it significantly more difficult to have two ratings for each player vs. Right and vs. Left. An if statement could then be used to determine which ratings to plug into the simulation engine. Am I oversimplifying the simulation engines?

I do understand the difficult of assinging the correct splits when importing from Lahman or other databases, put that doesn't have to be perfect in my opinion.

Todd

[Jeff Olsen]

Originally Posted by henry296

I do understand the difficult of assinging the correct splits when importing from Lahman or other databases, put that doesn't have to be perfect in my opinion.

OTOH, Clay is a perfectionist.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Jeff Olsen

Yeah, but it's always been aimed at those who are mainly interested in starting out with the current season, not those mainly interested in fiction.

But that makes no sense when the current season only lasts, potentially, 50 seconds, or even 30-60 minutes at most. In a week, a regular player will be reading about Greg Maddux's funeral on his player card. If you play even 20 years, you're nearly 100% into fictional players.

[Dreslough]

Originally Posted by Huckleberry

I agree with your perception of the situation. I also agree it's never wise to exclusively listen to requests.

However, given that this appears to be the way Clay makes his decisions, I can live with it. But I would also think that when he begins to think about the next BBM version, it would seem Manager Firings/Signings and L/R Splits would be the first two features to be added based on the same feedback decision-making criterion.

Hey guys, we had a BIG poll among our users about which features to add:

http://www.sportsmogul.com/vbulletin...threadid=55470

The top 6 features made the game, along with a few others from lower on the list (like Drag-and-Drop).

Lefty/Righty and Hiring/Firing managers were #8 and #9.

If I had trusted my instincts and knowledge about baseball, I probably wouldn't have added Player Personalities to this year's game. I have yet to see any research showing that happy baseball players perform better.

But the requests for this feature were overwhelming. And now that I have the system working, I find that it's a total blast to try to make trades and shuffle rosters to build the right clubhouse atmosphere. The addition of No Trade Clauses and Player Options creates a game where it matters how happy players are, how much they like their teammates, and how much they want to be on a winning team.

Anyway, despite the poll, I was still tempted to add Lefty-Righty stats along with multiple lineups. I'm a lifelong baseball fan, SABR member for 10 years, and I've been writing baseball games literally since I was 5 years old. I even programmed the four different lineup screens in Tony La Russa Baseball 3.

I chose to leave Lefty/Righty stats out of BB2K6 for a few reasons.

1. THE HASSLE OF SETTING LINEUPS.

2. STAT AVAILABILITY. We license the Lahman Baseball Database and it doesn't have Lefty-Righty stats. This leaves us with a few options. We can pay STATS Inc. $10,000+ for the stats we want (not a realistic option). Or we can assign platoon differentials to each player. These could either be random, or "league average" (e.g. all Lefty hitters in the game would bat 6% better against Righty pitchers, with 11% more power).

I'm not too happy with either of these options. What's the point in recording megabytes of lefty-righty data if it doesn't actually tell you anything useful about the player (for example, by revealing that the player actually has a much larger platoon differential than the average).

With a few exceptions, like the fact that the Lahman Database doesn't have blown saves, the Historical and Simulated stats blend seamlessly into each other in Baseball Mogul. I'd rather you didn't start a game in 1961 only to find that the Scouting Report for Roger Maris has no Historical Lefty-Righty data, and that the Simulated data wasn't based in any way on his real-life performance.

3. DESIGN PHILOSOPHY -- to be an addictive and realistic game that is accessible to EVERYONE. There are 30 million fantasy baseball players in the United States. Between OOTP, Diamond Mind, PureSim and Baseball Mogul, we probably have less than 500,000 customers. Those other 29.5 million fantasy baseball fans SHOULD be buying sims. They certainly spend time and money on their hobby. But it's a lot easier to set your lineups in Yahoo Fantasy Basbeall than in OOTP.

I think you will find with BM2K6 that it creates a totally deep, authentic, baseball world that you cannot pull yourself away from. If I'm wrong, I'm really glad there are other games out there like OOTP that might fit you better.

We were both working at Midway last year, so BM2K5 was only a minor upgrade. BM2K6 on the other hand, is without a doubt the most-improved Baseball Mogul ever. We should have the demo ready this month so I hope you guys at least give it a try.

Thanks!

Clay