04-17-2007, 10:45 AM | #101 |
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OK, so we are down to seven people at this point - does anyone think there are less than two bad guys out there?
I'm coming at this as a newcomer to small-game play, but with some experience in end-game play. What do people think about putting some cards out on the table right now in terms of our roles? If the seer and the bodyguard are still out there then that only leaves five spots for 2+ bad guys to hide behind. If the seer scanned someone who is still alive, that potentially takes another hiding place away. The bodyguard locks up the seer for tonight, ensuring an even better vote tomorrow. I'm not normally one to push for role reveals this early in the game, but with the small game format I think it might make sense for us to open up sooner rather than later. |
04-17-2007, 10:53 AM | #102 | |
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Well you are correct that in small games they can usually be lost really quickly. I doubt there are less than 2 bad guys in the game, a game with 1 bad guy can end after 1 day with some bad luck for the bad guys, so minimum I have to imagine there being a second wolf. With only 9 total players, I don't see the wolves having much beyond those two though in the way of sympathizers, conversion or anything else fancy. So I agree that 5 Good guys - 2 Bad guys is what we are looking at here. My first instinct when I read your post was distrust in trying to figure out why you want everyone to reveal right now, it would only tell the bad guys who to pick off.. but then I thought about it further... You are right if the seer + bodyguard reveal, then you have 2 known good guys, 3 unknown good guys, 2 unknown bad guys. You also reduce any possibility of the seer or bodyguard accidentally being lynched today. So worst case you would have (assuming the seer scanned either tyrith or the bodyguard and it gives you no more known good guys): Today lynching good guy : 2 known good guys, 2 unknown good guys, 2 unknown bad guys. Tonight bad guys kill bodyguard: 1 known good guys, 2 unknown good guys, 2 unknown bad guys Tonight seer scans another good guy: 2 known good guys, 1 unknown good guy, 2 unknown bad guys. Tommorrow accidentally lynch another good guy: 2 known good guys, 2 unknown bad guys (Bad guys win here).. so thats the worst case scenerio with no breaks at all. Since its possible one of the newer players is the bodyguard or seer, what I would do is if you are the bodyguard, leave this plan up to the seer to do or not. If I am the seer, and i have another trusted person, I would consider it and hope i didn't scan the bodyguard. If we can have 3 cleared good guys today, it would be really hard to lose by following hoops' plan. If the Seer scanned tyrith last night though it could end up bad at the end, but that is with all bad breaks. |
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04-17-2007, 10:58 AM | #103 |
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Agreed, and the seer could have been Tyrith (or DT, but why wouldn't he have given up that info pre-lynch?) which would make this plan less than optimal. The death information so far just lists FEDERATION but not the specific role.
Like I mentioned earlier, this is not my usual Day 2 strategy, but it is my first small game and I'm trying to adapt. With seven left, the reveal strategy - as initiated by the seer - seems logical to me. |
04-17-2007, 11:53 AM | #104 | |
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i agree here Samifan is very UTR and makes for a good wolf.... so ill VOTE SAMIFAN |
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04-17-2007, 11:55 AM | #105 |
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dola- saldana if samifan is the one killed and he turns out to be a wolf then you are very high on my trust list otherwise your'e next on my list
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04-17-2007, 12:01 PM | #106 |
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Esta snofa, imeerasa no breka. Puuto es Bodygurad un Dupu?
There is one litle snag with your plans. What if the bodyguard is dead? |
04-17-2007, 12:16 PM | #107 | |
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Well standard practice is unless said otherwise, roles are revealed upon death. I didn't see anything in this game that said roles are not revealed upon death so assume if the bodyguard was dead we would know it. I guess just to make sure, Anxiety, are roles revealed upon death? |
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04-17-2007, 12:48 PM | #108 |
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Agreed that the plan runs into a challenge if either of our key roles have been eliminated. But any plan of action has elements of risk that must be acknowledged and addressed accordingly. I'm certainly open to alternate strategies if a higher likelihood of success can be demonstrated.
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04-17-2007, 01:09 PM | #109 |
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Rome is impacting my play here (along with a nightmarish work schedule at the moment). I haven't been able to concentrate yet on the game too much.
I hate to accept something on other's reasoning without considering it much myself, but I am short on time right now. I'm hoping to get more involved after today (if I live). So I will... VOTE SAMIFAN Out until tonight. Good luck everyone. |
04-17-2007, 01:10 PM | #110 |
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Ahh, I didn't realize that roles got revealed upon elimination.
Just a personal thought, but why WOULD you reveal them? seems to me it makes teh game more challenging if the secrets die with the character? Just my nickel. |
04-17-2007, 01:23 PM | #111 | |
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Well the game is designed to be balanced with the role reveals on death. Some games choose to not have them in order to tip the odds to the bad guys moreso, but from my experience games without role reveals are often very frustrating to try to put together information in and aren't done too terribly often. |
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04-17-2007, 01:25 PM | #112 |
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If you reveal the role before dying (hey, don't kill me, I'm the seer!) then you have a better chance of helping the team. People might move votes away from you to another candidate, allowing you a chance to complete at least one scan.
Of course, an enemy might "fake reveal" to buy themselves another day or two. This often happens later in the day, with the hope that the person holding that role is not around to counter it before deadline. |
04-17-2007, 02:02 PM | #113 | |
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Yes
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04-17-2007, 02:20 PM | #114 |
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Thanks Anxiety.. So then my earlier point remains.. I think we should leave it up to the seer to come out or not based on what they found. If they scanned Tyrith last night, then perhaps its not a great play to come out odds wise just yet. If they have another neutral party then it might be good (and hope its not the bodyguard they found). Either way, I am about to head to the rehab hospital for a few hours, and just in case I dont get back before deadline.. Vote Imthecrew This run on Sam feels way too easy in developing, and something about Imthecrew feels a bit "off" or different than his previous games. Perhaps its nothing, but I don't like a run on one person without an alternate candidate. |
04-17-2007, 02:24 PM | #115 |
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We've got two votes for Samifan in already, with Saldana indicating he was leaning in this direction. I'm honestly not sure what to make of this morning movement.
I'm having a hard time believing that a veteran seer would have chosen Samifan - just not normally the way these things go, you usually scan the people you would prefer as allies or to remove as enemies ASAP. Of the seven people remaining, five have played enough games to have clear thoughts on who they might scan. Including all three people who have either voted for Sami or indicated they would do so (Saldana, ITC, Chief). |
04-17-2007, 02:28 PM | #116 |
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Alan, it is getting eerie how often we post similar thoughts on top of each other lately.
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04-17-2007, 03:30 PM | #117 | |
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Well I must say that I am surprised that I am under suspicion by so many, so soon. I have done little here which would suggest that I have been compromised while others seem so ready to cast their suspicions on the "man of the moment." I am not comfortable with a fellow officer exhibiting the weaknesses shown here and so I will protect myself and Vote ImTheCrew
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04-17-2007, 04:03 PM | #118 |
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I believe that Saldana is the only one who has not posted since I outlined the "role reveal" thought process. But so far, Alan T and RendeR are the only ones to comment on it. What are other people's thoughts on the strengths/weaknesses of this approach?
Anxiety has clarified that both the bodyguard and seer are still in play, which meets RendeR's initial concern. I think this is the correct play to make at this point in time, but we really need this to be a group decision rather than an individual decision. But the time to pull the trigger on this is getting short. And right now we have another emerging two man showdown. I thought this was a better strategy for yesterday than for today, frankly. |
04-17-2007, 04:15 PM | #119 |
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Just checking in real quick, as I wanted to see what was happening. It appears not much has progressed. I think I would make one revision to your plan at this point Hoops.. and this places alot of dependance on the Seer being around between now and deadline to work..
At this point, perhaps its not a good idea to reveal unless the person you scanned happened to be either Sam or ITC. I think this is what I prefer at this point. I think if Sam or ITC are either the seer or bodyguard, they need to say so before its too late to move votes to save them. Likewise if the seer chose either of them to scan (I find it unlikely) and they are good, they should say so. If none of the above are true then that means we have the following: 2 Known good roles (Bodyguard/seer) 3 Unknown good/2 unknown bad roles (Sam and ITC are in this group). This achieves the same goal as Hoops plan just without the reveals at this point. |
04-17-2007, 04:21 PM | #120 |
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Makes sense. Only downside is that we can't guarantee a block on the seer tonight heading down this path. So the aliens will have a better mathematical shot (better than zero, assuming the bodyguard would always guard the seer if they know who it is) of taking out that role on Night 2.
However, in weighing risk/reward I think that is a positive approach. |
04-17-2007, 05:56 PM | #121 |
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hoops, i think i agree with your idea on reveals...if we lynch wrong here, then they get a kill overnight, we have to be perfect tomorrow, which can make things very difficult...
if the seer and bg reveal now, we get 3 cleared vs 4 uncleared...one of the uncleared gets lynched tonight giving us a 50% chance of a hit and making it 3 on 3 the BG protects the seer tonight, most likely dying in the line of duty, making it 2 on 3, but the seer wakes up in the morning with another clear, making it 3 cleared vs 2 uncleared. if there are 2 uncleared left tomorrow morning, they pretty much have to be the wolves, unless there was only one to start with. mathmatically, we should win if the reveals happen before tonights lynch deadline. |
04-17-2007, 06:36 PM | #122 |
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/out of character/
I have to say that you guys put a lot more thought into these games than I ever thought possible. I give you guys a lot of credit because math was never my strong suit and just glancing at those different probabilities makes my head spin. Nevertheless, I'm having fun and enjoying my first game. /out of character/
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04-17-2007, 07:26 PM | #123 |
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Sami, you should see what it is like in a game with 20+ people and a couple of more vocal members
As it looks now, the vote is between the two candidates with votes. I'll hope to do a little better this time around. ImTheCrew has been available today, but hasn't commented at all on our proposed plan or given any reason for his vote on samifan24 other than a tag-along with Saldanan's initial thoughts - along with a warning to Saldana that he would be accountable if it was wrong. Those are all characteristics that put me ill at ease. I think my tolerance for a late reveal will be lower today than it would be in other games as we had demonstrated value in the "Day 2 reveal" approach. For someone to disregard the logic, then try to call out as a special role near the deadline would certainly encourage skepticism. VOTE IMTHECREW |
04-17-2007, 07:28 PM | #124 |
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despite a nagging feeling i have been having since last night
vote imthecrew |
04-17-2007, 07:32 PM | #125 |
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[ooc]in case anyone looks at the bottom of the page to see who is in the thread and sees me, then wonders why it has been hours since i posted last, i got a new cell phone that is internet capable, so i log onto fofc with it to read posts while i am at work, and then it doesnt log off when i am done, so even though it looks like i am online all day, it is really just my phone saving where i left off for me for my next break.[/ooc]
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04-17-2007, 07:35 PM | #126 | |
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that's hot. You have a super-phone like me now too sal? |
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04-17-2007, 07:42 PM | #127 |
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04-17-2007, 07:50 PM | #128 | |
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those are pretty sweet. Nice lookin. the proprietery OS (if i'm not mistaken) is a bit of a turn-off, but still...pretty sweet. Believe me, after a couple months you'll feel like you couldn't ever live without it. |
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04-17-2007, 07:52 PM | #129 |
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ok guys i didnt want to have to do this but i am the BG this will only save me a day or 2 but im willing to do that for the sake of the team
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04-17-2007, 07:52 PM | #130 |
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night 1 i protected Alan T
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04-17-2007, 08:04 PM | #131 |
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Ok, Unless someone comes to dispute your claim of being the bodyguard, I'll move my vote.
Unvote Imthecrew Vote Chief Rum Chief was the other person in the morning run on Sami, so I'll go there for now. So I assume everyone knows that even though Imthecrew didn't clear me, at least you know that I didn't do the kill last night. (I assume that would have been blocked if the BG protects the night killer). So I know I'm good, but from a neutral perspective we have this: Good: Seer - Bodyguard - Imthecrew UnknownGood#1 UnknownGood#2 UnknownGood#3 Badguy (killer night1) - Wasn't Alan Badguy (didn't kill night 1) - I know I'm one of the Unknown Good#1-3, but you all don't know that. |
04-17-2007, 08:07 PM | #132 |
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with no one coming forward to dispute it,
unvote imthecrew vote samifan |
04-17-2007, 08:07 PM | #133 |
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Right now, I see this as the voting:
Samifan - Imthecrew, Chief Rum Imthecrew - Samifan, Hoopsguy, Saldana Chief Rum - Alan So that means if need be, I'll move my vote to Samifan to save Imthecrew now. Just giving him a bit more of a chance since I didn't like the quick pile up on him. |
04-17-2007, 08:11 PM | #134 | |
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look up. |
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04-17-2007, 08:15 PM | #135 |
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04-17-2007, 08:39 PM | #136 |
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Well only Render hasn't voted. Looks like right now Sami is on the line to die, and he was on the line earlier as well and didn't profess any role such as seer, so guess this is the way it will go.
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04-17-2007, 08:53 PM | #137 |
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Crew is lying - I'm the bodyguard.
Please change votes back to him ASAP. Sorry I wasn't here to dispute it earlier. |
04-17-2007, 08:54 PM | #138 |
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Since there is no downside in revealing who I guarded on a night-by-night basis (can repeat, as posted in the rules) I guarded Chief Rum last night.
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04-17-2007, 08:58 PM | #139 |
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Unvote Chief Rum
Vote Imthecrew |
04-17-2007, 08:59 PM | #140 |
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Actually this may put me on the block later, but I change my mind.
Hoops could just as likely be lying as Imthecrew is. This goes back to a few games ago where we purposely kept a fake seer alive for days which caused the bad guys to not kill the real seer in fear of giving up their own. Regardless of who is lying or not, I bet the bad guys could go after the bodyguard tonight. Let them do the dirty work for us. Unvote Imthecrew Vote Samifan There, we'll see what happens tonight, and what happens with Sami's death |
04-17-2007, 09:01 PM | #141 |
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Time check
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04-17-2007, 09:01 PM | #142 |
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That is time., no more votes will bet aken
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04-17-2007, 09:02 PM | #143 |
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I have samifan with four votes, is that correct?
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04-17-2007, 09:03 PM | #144 |
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04-17-2007, 09:06 PM | #145 |
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So, I was in a hurry there with my response.. but basically my thinking was this:
If Hoopsguy was bad in a small game he would guess he would be scanned on an early day most likely. So he was going to be a gonner either way. His best bet would be to take out a valuable role along the way and hopefully open the path for his fellow wolf. If Hoopsguy was good, and is telling the truth, we'll know if he dies tonight that he was telling the truth, and tommorrow's lynch is easy. If The bad guys pick someone completely random, the seer has the opportunity to tell which one was lying. Either way, I would rather leave it up to the bad guys to make the poor decision of choosing which to kill. Last thing we want is to accidentally kill our bodyguard by guessing wrong. |
04-17-2007, 09:07 PM | #146 |
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i was away from my computer and didnt dee hoops reveal...even if i had been here i would not have changed my vote...i have a very bad feeling about hoops this game, and considered voting for him today....i will elaborate more later...btw, its tueday...anxiety has datenight so i dont expect results right away
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04-17-2007, 09:12 PM | #147 |
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Another long wait begins and winds its way through the day. A great deal of sorrow accompanies your deliberations. Today is fairly lively. Many arguments are tossed around and many fingers are pointed.
At the end of the day, it appears that you have narrowed your suspects. After a short review of the evidence against each candidate, you begin to vote. After a short amount of time, you have made your selection. B’Pok, the Vulcan, is asked to come forward. He does so with no hesitation. “Are you upset?” “Of course not,” he responds. “It is the will of the people.” He reaches down and grabs his phaser. You tighten your muscles but he merely places it on a nearby table. You allow him to say last rites, and then you sends beams of energy into his body from your various weapons. As his body collapses, you hear a loud screeching noise. Out of his mouth pops a large creature. You cannot tell if it is a crustacean or an insect. One of you recovers from your surprise and hits the creature with his phaser to no avail. The rest of you shake off your shock and add your beams to his. The combined force of your phaser beams pierces the outer shell of the creature, and a wave of three-day old decay assails your nose as the creature wails in death. Samifan was under the control of aliens. Day Two has ended. Night Two has begun and will end at 2 am EST Wed or when I receive all night actions.
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04-17-2007, 09:13 PM | #148 | |
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I got home early tonight, passing up sure sex, to run this game.
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04-17-2007, 09:14 PM | #149 |
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04-17-2007, 09:16 PM | #150 |
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and now we begin the argument...who is lying....hoops or itc?
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