Swine Flu

[Mac Howard]

Two people die in California. Schwarzenegger declares a state of emergency. Tests now show neither died from swine flu.

Many more people died from the SARS vaccine than from SARS.

Says it all really

The media seem determined to prove Nietzsche right when he declared democracy would become mediocracy. Perhaps they think he meant "rule by the media" when, of course, he meant "rule by the mediocre". Thinking about that - perhaps there's no difference.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Mac Howard

Two people die in California. Schwarzenegger declares a state of emergency. Tests now show neither died from swine flu.
.

heh.

I was just talking to Saldana today saying I wonder what happens when someone in the US dies.

[Cringer]

I didn't cancel practice for one of my youth soccer teams today, I had to make sure that I passed along my Swine Flu to as many as possible. I shook hands with two people this evening as well, and I made sure to cough into my hand first.

Saw on the news how 'they' (whoever they are) are asking for stimulus money for pandemic vaccines and crap like that. That is really starting to go overboard.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Mac Howard

Two people die in California. Schwarzenegger declares a state of emergency. Tests now show neither died from swine flu.

WTF, how stupid are these people?

PEOPLE ARE DYING HERE IT MUST BE PIGS FLEW!

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

I blame the police.

Damn that Gordon Sumner.

[ace1914]

Hmm. Playing devil's advocate, isn't this is a great way to justify completely closing the border, right?

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

No reason to be sorry. We are all (mostly) friends here even if we want to flog each other at times.

No, no. I was sorry for laughing at such a bad joke. I'm a sucker for them.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by ace1914

Hmm. Playing devil's advocate, isn't this is a great way to justify completely closing the border, right?

Definitely!

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by ace1914

Hmm. Playing devil's advocate, isn't this is a great way to justify completely closing the border, right?

If this lasts for awhile it could affect Mexico's chances of landing the 2022 World Cup which will be voted on soon. So the US could get tighter border controls and the WC out of this.

[Passacaglia]

Egypt orders slaughter of all pigs over swine flu

Egypt orders slaughter of all pigs over swine flu

By MAAMOUN YOUSSEF, Associated Press Writer – 2 hrs 13 mins ago
CAIRO – Egypt began slaughtering the roughly 300,000 pigs in the country Wednesday as a precautionary measure against the spread of swine flu even though no cases have been reported here yet, the Health Ministry said.
The move immediately provoked resistance from pig farmers. At one large pig farming center just north of Cairo, farmers refused to cooperate with Health Ministry workers who came to slaughter the animals and the workers left without carrying out the government order.
"It has been decided to immediately start slaughtering all the pigs in Egypt using the full capacity of the country's slaughterhouses," Health Minister Hatem el-Gabaly told reporters after a Cabinet meeting with President Hosni Mubarak.
Egypt's overwhelmingly Muslim population does not eat pork due to religious restrictions. But the animals are raised and consumed by the Christian minority, which some estimates put at 10 percent of the population.
Health Ministry spokesman Abdel Rahman estimated there were between 300,000-350,000 pigs in Egypt.
Agriculture Minister Amin Abaza told reporters that farmers would be allowed to sell the pork meat so there would be no need for compensation.
In 2008, following fears over diseases spread by animals, Mubarak ordered all pig and chicken farms moved out of population areas. But the order was never implemented.
Pigs can be found in many places around Muslim world, often raised by religious minorities who can eat pork. But they are banned entirely in some Muslim countries including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Libya.
In Jordan, the government decided Wednesday to shut down the country's five pig farms, involving 800 animals, for violating public health safety regulations.

[JAG]

Someone at my wife's job talked about not eating bacon as a result of this. Today she's home sick with flu-like symptoms.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by JAG

Someone at my wife's job talked about not eating bacon as a result of this. Today she's home sick with flu-like symptoms.

Yet eating prok has nothing to do with swine flu... People are idiots.

[Logan]

Not eating bacon kills!

cartman is gonna live to be 120.

[DaddyTorgo]

i for one welcome our new zombie-pig overlords!

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Mac Howard

Two people die in California. Schwarzenegger declares a state of emergency. Tests now show neither died from swine flu.

Many more people died from the SARS vaccine than from SARS.

Says it all really

The media seem determined to prove Nietzsche right when he declared democracy would become mediocracy. Perhaps they think he meant "rule by the media" when, of course, he meant "rule by the mediocre". Thinking about that - perhaps there's no difference.

oooh...fun fun!! are you one of those anti-vaccination people??

if so - please stay away. we should make a seperate country for you all so you don't infect us with things we've been vaccinated against

[Ksyrup]

I'm home sick today. Getting the swine flu jokes from people at work. What are the chances?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Egypt orders slaughter of all pigs over swine flu

I'm amazed people in power can be this ignorant in 2009

[path12]

Originally Posted by ace1914

Hmm. Playing devil's advocate, isn't this is a great way to justify completely closing the border, right?

Except for those goddamn airplanes, sure.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm amazed people in power can be this ignorant in 2009

Oh, I'm sure we could come up with a nice long list of people.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

IT'S THE APORKALYPSE!

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

oooh...fun fun!! are you one of those anti-vaccination people??

if so - please stay away. we should make a seperate country for you all so you don't infect us with things we've been vaccinated against

There are times to be wary of vaccines. Such as when they were just made yesterday for a disease we don't understand yet. Chances are they will at that point be more dangerous than helpful for most people. Vaccines take a long time to get right.

[Karlifornia]

This whole thing is becoming quite hilarious.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

oooh...fun fun!! are you one of those anti-vaccination people??

if so - please stay away. we should make a seperate country for you all so you don't infect us with things we've been vaccinated against

Lessons From 1976 Flu Vaccinations : NPR

Lessons From 1976 Flu Vaccinations

by Scott Horsley

Listen Now [3 min 47 sec] add to playlist
All Things Considered, April 28, 2009 · Thirty-three years ago, the U.S. launched an unprecedented effort to fend off a swine flu epidemic by vaccinating every person. The program was eventually halted when the flu failed to materialize and the vaccine itself was linked to harmful side-effects.

The 'listen now' link contains audio of the longer story.

[Dr. Sak]

Pass you read my mind.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by ace1914

Hmm. Playing devil's advocate, isn't this is a great way to justify completely closing the border, right?

Ha! Not a chance bud. There was a story on this in the local media yesterday (I live on the Texas border, about 60 miles from the first "U.S. death" of the Swine Flu). On the Mexican side of the border they are stopping every car going over there and asking them if they had had symptoms, etc. Ont he U.S. side our border patrol is not doing anything, if they "look sick" then they will investigate further. Yes, our border procedures will protect us from everything, I am sure of it.

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'm home sick today. Getting the swine flu jokes from people at work. What are the chances?

I am on day three of being sick, and I wouldn't be surprised if I have it. If I die though I will let everyone know.

[A-Husker-4-Life]

Is this really "Porky's Revenge" ...

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by Mac Howard

Many more people died from the SARS vaccine than from SARS.

You are quoting this as fact?

Can you provide a source for this information?

From what I can tell the SARS scare died out before development on a vaccine was completed, and nowhere near the 774 people who died from SARS were ever given an experimental vaccine.

[finketr]

my employer has suspended all travel to and from Mexico unless approved at vice presidential level...

also, my wife is sick with the flu but she's recovering now.

[Huckleberry]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

oooh...fun fun!! are you one of those anti-vaccination people??

if so - please stay away. we should make a seperate country for you all so you don't infect us with things we've been vaccinated against

Um, what was the point of being vaccinated if you can't be around people that weren't vaccinated?

[RainMaker]

Need someone with knowledge of this to help me out.

From what I've gathered, you get sick from this but ultimately recover even without medical attention. It sort of sounds like the regular flu, but a little worse. Am I wrong here? I mean if this was ebola and our skins were melting it's one thing, but I think I can deal with having the flu for a few days.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Need someone with knowledge of this to help me out.

From what I've gathered, you get sick from this but ultimately recover even without medical attention. It sort of sounds like the regular flu, but a little worse. Am I wrong here? I mean if this was ebola and our skins were melting it's one thing, but I think I can deal with having the flu for a few days.

No you pretty much have it right. It's the sensationalistic media feamongering the herd. Nothing new here.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Mac Howard

Two people die in California. Schwarzenegger declares a state of emergency. Tests now show neither died from swine flu.

Citation? (so that I can use it as ammo)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

No you pretty much have it right. It's the sensationalistic media feamongering the herd. Nothing new here.

Except when it runs into pneumonia. Or when it leads to respiratory failure.
Both of which can occur with the more common cases of the flu, except that with an unfamiliar strain such as this one the likelihood of either of those happening is uncertain.

And then there's the "cytokine storm" effect which could actually make any unfamiliar virus more dangerous to healthy people not likely to suffer severe complications from typical flu bugs. Basically your immune system works against you until it kills you, which is now suspected to be a leading cause of
death during the avian flu outbreak in Asia.

Fighting Deadly Flu, Mexico Shuts Schools - NYTimes.com
When a new virus emerges, it can sweep through the population, said Dr. Anne Moscona, a flu specialist at Cornell University’s medical school. The Spanish flu is believed to have infected at least 25 percent of the United States population, but killed less than 3 percent of those infected.

The leading theory on why so many young, healthy people die in pandemics is the “cytokine storm,” in which vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs, Dr. Moscona said.

The danger here isn't strictly from "the flu", it's enhanced because it's a previously unknown strain of flu.

Meanwhile, I'm finding it increasingly rich that the highly trained medical staff of FOFC is quick to dismiss the threat while health officials public & private worldwide are quite concerned.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Citation? (so that I can use it as ammo)

You won't need one because it's a red herring. The state of emergency wasn't due to the deaths (which one was definitely not swine flu, the other was still being tested as of last night) it was a procedural matter that would allow various state agencies to work together more easily.

That's not really uncommon occurrence, the same sort of "state of emergency" gets declared in states in cases like tornadoes, floods, etc. in order to facilitate faster/smoother/better interagency cooperation outside of some of the usual bureaucratic red tape. If I had a dollar for every "state of emergency" declared by every Georgia governor in my lifetime I'd have several hundred dollars.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Citation? (so that I can use it as ammo)

Just checking on Google News, the only US Death that has been reported is the Mexican kid who was brought to the US because we have such a better medical system here that our tax dollars should be used to cure anyone.

[DanGarion]

Just like the WHO says that there have only been 7 confirmed deaths worldwide not the reported 150+.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

Just checking on Google News, the only US Death that has been reported is the Mexican kid who was brought to the US because we have such a better medical system here that our tax dollars should be used to cure anyone.

Alas, much as I'd like to have that arrow in my anti-immigration quiver, it may not be applicable here.

The kid had pre-existing "underlying health problems" but didn't develop flu symptoms until several days after arrival & came ostensibly to visit relatives in Brownsville. Got sick & was then taken to Houston for treatment.
My Way News - Mexican boy visiting Texas 1st US swine flu death

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Alas, much as I'd like to have that arrow in my anti-immigration quiver, it may not be applicable here.

The kid had pre-existing "underlying health problems" but didn't develop flu symptoms until several days after arrival & came ostensibly to visit relatives in Brownsville. Got sick & was then taken to Houston for treatment.
My Way News - Mexican boy visiting Texas 1st US swine flu death

I hadn't read the whole story since this morning, but on the news this morning they sounded like he came to the US because of it.

[Masked]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Need someone with knowledge of this to help me out.

From what I've gathered, you get sick from this but ultimately recover even without medical attention. It sort of sounds like the regular flu, but a little worse. Am I wrong here? I mean if this was ebola and our skins were melting it's one thing, but I think I can deal with having the flu for a few days.

For most people that is correct - it's going to be very similar to the regular flu. The danger is it's going to have a much higher mortality rate than the regular flu (which is something much lower than 1%). The mortality rate during the 1918-1919 flu epidemic was less than 5% in the United States.

Ebola which is much more deadly doesn't have the pandemic potential of the something like the flu. Ebola kills people before it can spread, the flu does not. 100% mortality multiplied by 200 cases is much better than 1% mortality multiplied by 100,000,000 million cases.

[JonInMiddleGA]

From what Masked pointed out, let's do a little math.

Let's say the mortality rate is 1/10th of that of the Spanish Flu outbreak, the figure I've usually seen is around 3%.

With a U.S. population of 306 million, you're talking about 918,000 deaths in the U.S. with a mortality rate of 0.3%. If it turns out to be even half of the Spanish Flu mortality rate, you're looking at 4.59 million deaths in the U.S. At 1/10 of the Spanish Flu outbreak, just 0.3%, the number gets to around 20 million worldwide (assuming equal distribution).

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

Just checking on Google News, the only US Death that has been reported is the Mexican kid who was brought to the US because we have such a better medical system here that our tax dollars should be used to cure anyone.

Right, but that does not link the two, as JIMGA has said you can't. I don't want to make claims that are not factual.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

From what Masked pointed out, let's do a little math.

Let's say the mortality rate is 1/10th of that of the Spanish Flu outbreak, the figure I've usually seen is around 3%.

With a U.S. population of 306 million, you're talking about 918,000 deaths in the U.S. with a mortality rate of 0.3%. If it turns out to be even half of the Spanish Flu mortality rate, you're looking at 4.59 million deaths in the U.S. At 1/10 of the Spanish Flu outbreak, just 0.3%, the number gets to around 20 million worldwide (assuming equal distribution).

Except that the 3% mortality rate is of those infected. So, the math is poor. it's .3% of the number of cases, which, currently is a confirmed 91 cases (CDC - Influenza (Flu) | Swine Influenza (Flu)). With the .3%, you would expect no more than 1 (which, so far, is what the number is at). for 3% it would be around 3 people.

[JonInMiddleGA]

[quote=lordscarlet;2006899]Right, but that does not link the two, as JIMGA has said you can't. I don't want to make claims that are not factual.

Except that the 3% mortality rate is of those infected.

Ack, my bad, very much so in fact. Teach me to post while having a calculator open for something else I was doing. Mea culpa.

Quartering those numbers for the U.S. would be more apt (25% infection seems to be the number associated with the Spanish Flu outbreak).

[lordscarlet]

Based on the Spanish Flu wiki entry:

the infection rate was "up to 50%". It also says that the "usual flu epidemic" mortality rate is .1%. So if the numbers above are correct, the swine flu mortality rate is 3x the typical flue, but 1/10 the Spanish Flu.

India did see an actualy mortality rate of 5% (of the whole population).

Looks like a 28% infection rate in the US. I assume it's way to early to know the infection rate of the swine flu.

[JediKooter]

Wife is sick. She went to the doctor and they made her wear a mask when she left. Won't know if she has been swined or not until the test results come back in a couple of days.

[Masked]

As pointed out above, you have to consider infection rate. For normal seasonal flu, it's probably around 10% if the population (0.1% mortality rate * US Population * 10% infection rate = 30,000 deaths in a year). A novel virus that otherwise has the same infectious potential as the normal seasonal flu would be expected to have a higher infection rate because no one has been vaccinated and no one has natural immunities from prior exposure. From the medical science perspective, higher infection rates and higher mortality is a potentially bad combination - that is why public health agencies are rightfully concerned. It's much easier to stop a pandemic before it spreads than after; therefore, these agencies are forced to take actions based on spotty and preliminary data (we don't know the total number of cases, we don't know the mortality rate, etc.).

That said, the media coverage is, as expected, ridiculous.

[lordscarlet]

I'm coming around on this, btw. Not necessarily to the way the media has freaked out, but...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Meanwhile, I'm finding it increasingly rich that the highly trained medical staff of FOFC is quick to dismiss the threat while health officials public & private worldwide are quite concerned.

guy has a point.

[DanGarion]

It's funny that people actually think the masks really do anything. They dont' protect you from small particles such as viri all they do is block large particles.

The only real benefit I see with a mask is that it could prevent you from touching your mouth with an hand that has come in contact with the virus.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Meanwhile, I'm finding it increasingly rich that the highly trained medical staff of FOFC is quick to dismiss the threat while health officials public & private worldwide are quite concerned.

These are the same types of highly trained people and media that thinks we are the cause of global warming and cooling that has been going on for billions of years.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

It's funny that people actually think the masks really do anything. They dont' protect you from small particles such as viri all they do is block large particles.

The only real benefit I see with a mask is that it could prevent you from touching your mouth with an hand that has come in contact with the virus.

This is not from me but from my brother who works in the biotech field. The mask is basically worthless if you are healthy. It is really only beneficial if you are sick so that your saliva and stuff isn't sprayed everywhere when talking and coughing.