Werewolf CXXVII -- The Godfather, VILLAGERS WIN

[Passacaglia]

Sorry for the confusion on Clemenza, guys. He can not use the items to make a kill, ever. When the items are used, they disappear.

[Passacaglia]

Also, to clarify Luca's role, on any given night, he can protect or kill, but not both.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Sorry for the confusion on Clemenza, guys. He can not use the items to make a kill, ever. When the items are used, they disappear.

Okay, thanks for clarifying. In this case it would be worth considering for Clemenza to pass one of the items back and forth with Tessio. Has to be up to the individual though, because either one of those guys could be wolves, potentially. This would keep one kill mechanic out of the game (unless Tessio was in fact a wolf). I'm of the opinion that less random kills is generally a good thing, especially since if one of the wolves receives either of the items, they could pass it amongst themselves until they found the other one.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Sorry for the confusion on Clemenza, guys. He can not use the items to make a kill, ever. When the items are used, they disappear.

Well that changes my whole strategy!

Not really

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I just realized I'll be out of town Saturday, so I figured I'd get things started now. All PMs are out. Have a good weekend all!

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Okay, thanks for clarifying. In this case it would be worth considering for Clemenza to pass one of the items back and forth with Tessio. Has to be up to the individual though, because either one of those guys could be wolves, potentially. This would keep one kill mechanic out of the game (unless Tessio was in fact a wolf). I'm of the opinion that less random kills is generally a good thing, especially since if one of the wolves receives either of the items, they could pass it amongst themselves until they found the other one.

Checking in and this seems to make sense to me. The less kills out there the less chance a villager gets hit by mistake or the wolves control it and use it as a free kill. I think a big part of whether we can win this game or not is going to be to make this as drawn out and get as much history as we can out in the open before everyone gets whacked in a huge bloodbath. The fact that a lot of these roled killings will be behind the scenes is a huge negative. If we can take one or some of them out of the game like this, sounds good to me

[bhlloy]

As for tessio being a wolf, there is a chance of that but there is just as big a chance that a wolf gets one of the items early on anyway and just keeps it until another wolf gets the other. Seems like a risk worth taking to me but wonder what everyone else thinks

[CrimsonFox]

No, you can't hang onto those objects. It says every turn they are passed and if you don't send an order of who to pass them to, it's random. So only way to do it is if two wolves end up with them on the same turn and then both pass it to a third.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That's correct -- if someone doesn't pass an item, it gets passed to someone randomly.

Ah, yes, here is that clarification (post 92)

[bhlloy]

Why couldn't the wolves just pass it among themselves? As long as there were more than two left they could easily pass it among the three and if they got both pass it to the third person who didn't have an item that turn. I don't think there is any restriction on how often you can hold an item, just that it has to be passed every night, correct?

I just don't see how passing this thing around blindly amounts to anything more than a huge advantage for the wolves, as they have a communications network and as soon as it is in the group they can just pass it amongst themselves until they get the other one. But I may be missing something

[JAG]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Why couldn't the wolves just pass it among themselves? As long as there were more than two left they could easily pass it among the three and if they got both pass it to the third person who didn't have an item that turn. I don't think there is any restriction on how often you can hold an item, just that it has to be passed every night, correct?

I just don't see how passing this thing around blindly amounts to anything more than a huge advantage for the wolves, as they have a communications network and as soon as it is in the group they can just pass it amongst themselves until they get the other one. But I may be missing something

While I don't disagree with your basic premise, what is the solution? Is it worth a good guy revealing this early so that we have a trusted person to pass one of the gun/canoli? Even if you think so (and I'm not sure that's the case), that person would need someone to pass it to the following day. Plus you'd be putting a big target on that person and if they get NK'ed or otherwise killed, we're back to where we started. I don't really disagree that our best hope is that Salvatore is a villager and he and Clemenza will keep passing it back and forth, but there's no guarantee he is and there's still the matter of the other item anyway.

I'm going to give this some thought.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

No, you can't hang onto those objects. It says every turn they are passed and if you don't send an order of who to pass them to, it's random. So only way to do it is if two wolves end up with them on the same turn and then both pass it to a third.

Well see, there's at least four wolves, we're thinking, so the chances of them getting one of the items early is pretty high if they are being passed around randomly. In that case they can then pass that item amongst themselves until the other item comes to one of them, and then arrange for both items to be on one person. Who knows, they probably get an item if their NK target possesses one also. I think it's the best strategy to not pass them around randomly.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well see, there's at least four wolves, we're thinking, so the chances of them getting one of the items early is pretty high if they are being passed around randomly. In that case they can then pass that item amongst themselves until the other item comes to one of them, and then arrange for both items to be on one person.

yup, that's what I was saying.

[Narcizo]

The problem is that if someone reveals to get one of the items passed to them then that person is going to get whacked pretty quickly. And we don't know what will happen to the item if they get hit.

I think the best bet is for Clemenza to hand the gun on to Salvatore Tessio and the other thing to someone else. Then Salvatore hands the gun back to Clemenza. We'll probably have to come to some sort decision about what to do eventually but not for a while. Of course if Tessio is a wolf then the plan probably won't hold up well for Clemenza for long but I think the odds are largely against it.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Also, to clarify Luca's role, on any given night, he can protect or kill, but not both.

In which case I would argue that he should protect every night unless the a consensus in the thread that he should make a kill. Argue, argue. There.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by JAG

While I don't disagree with your basic premise, what is the solution? Is it worth a good guy revealing this early so that we have a trusted person to pass one of the gun/canoli? .

I definitely don't think this FWIW as that would be an obvious way to get killed. I just think it's worth taking the chance that Tessio is a villager vs the chance of passing it around blindly on the open market and hoping the wolves don't get one of the items in the first couple of days.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I definitely don't think this FWIW as that would be an obvious way to get killed. I just think it's worth taking the chance that Tessio is a villager vs the chance of passing it around blindly on the open market and hoping the wolves don't get one of the items in the first couple of days.

I think pretty much anyone who has expressed an opinion is onboard with this.

Speaking of reveals (as whoever you quoted was), I hope it goes without saying that there's no need or use for anyone to be revealing. If the wolves didn't know what roles were in the game it might bear discussing but as it is it will just provide the wolves a roadmap to who to kill. This covers the minor roles as well. It might not be dangerous to your well-being to say, for example, that you're Fredo but it will help the wolves narrow down the field.

[tyketime]

Checking in, and rereading all of the roles.

[Autumn]

Checking in again. I don't have anything new to say about the gun, seems like a smart plan, but it's out of our hands for now. I think we generally agree as a WW community, that villager kills are not usually a good idea. I think we've matured a bit since the games where we had some pretty boneheaded moves there.

[mckerney]

Checking in before checking out everything that's been said so far.

[EagleFan]

vote saldana

Might as well get this started.

Just found out that life at work this week is extremely going to suck. Our asshole VP will be in town along with two of his cronies (and there are rumors that his boss who is the douchebag of all douchebags may make an appearance). That and it is the final week before a high profile client upgrade will be going on will make access at the deadline touch and go. Will be mostly from my phone if I can get there at all (most likely).

[Danny]

Well I finally read all of the roles, this is going to be crazy lol

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Checking in, and rereading all of the roles.

Originally Posted by mckerney

Checking in before checking out everything that's been said so far.

I always find these sorts of comments a teensy bit suspious, or at least odd. It's like you're subconciously thinking "Oh noes! Someone might see me hanging around the thread and think I'm a wolf going through my PMs". I mean, read the thread and the roles and then post something. Doing it the other way round just seems strange to me (unless you intentionally planning a dola-fest).

It also contributes nothing, nothing, nothing to the villager cause or, for that matter, the cause of there being anything of interest going on at all in the thread. I was going to joke vote Lathum because he hadn't checked in yet. But instead I'll, eeny-meeny-miny-mo

Vote mckerney

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

Well I finally read all of the roles, this is going to be crazy lol

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I always find these sorts of comments a teensy bit suspious, or at least odd. It's like you're subconciously thinking "Oh noes! Someone might see me hanging around the thread and think I'm a wolf going through my PMs". I mean, read the thread and the roles and then post something. Doing it the other way round just seems strange to me (unless you intentionally planning a dola-fest).

It also contributes nothing, nothing, nothing to the villager cause or, for that matter, the cause of there being anything of interest going on at all in the thread. I was going to joke vote Lathum because he hadn't checked in yet. But instead I'll, eeny-meeny-miny-mo

Vote mckerney

I find these back to back amusing.

[Narcizo]

At least it looks like Danny read the roles before "checking in".

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Danny

Checking in from phone, will try and give some initial role analysis when I get home

To be fair, this was posted Friday morning

[Narcizo]

Gotcha - so your role analysis is the it's going to be crazy.

Not exactly up there with Chief Rum, to be honest.

[Narcizo]

[Danny]

Based on the last game, I take that as a compliment (sorry Chief)

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

Based on the last game, I take that as a compliment (sorry Chief)

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

vote saldana
Just found out that life at work this week is extremely going to suck. Our asshole VP will be in town along with two of his cronies (and there are rumors that his boss who is the douchebag of all douchebags may make an appearance). That and it is the final week before a high profile client upgrade will be going on will make access at the deadline touch and go. Will be mostly from my phone if I can get there at all (most likely).

I bet my boss is a bigger douche bag than your boss. Anyhoo, my boss will be in my office most likely tomorrow. I may put my vote in tonight yet otherwise for sure tomorrow morning because I might not get much of a chance to do so during the day with my douche boss around.

[Lathum]

here

[J23]

Vote Chief Rum

Will try to get in the threat tomorrow to move this around if it ends up being a useless vote, but Mondays can be problematic.

[Narcizo]

Why Chief Rum? Why Saldana? Why, why, why?

Seriously, Chief Rum is a useful villager to have around and is probably high up on the list of likely seer scans (after Lathum). Voting for him just seems to doing the wolves' work for them. Or has his rep dropped since I was last here?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Why Chief Rum? Why Saldana? Why, why, why?

Seriously, Chief Rum is a useful villager to have around and is probably high up on the list of likely seer scans (after Lathum). Voting for him just seems to doing the wolves' work for them. Or has his rep dropped since I was last here?

Well, I am coming off of an admittedly poor game, Narc.

But, now, these fools here still seem to think I play the game well.

[Chief Rum]

These rules are pretty complicated. I am going to take a crack at encapsulating all of the various little rules here into one hopefully easy to read post.

Good Guys For Sure

Vito Corleone (duke), Luca Brasi (BG & a hunter), Michael Corleone (a hunter), Tom Hagen (seer) and Connie Corleone (better half of lover pair).

Bad Guys For Sure

The Turk, Capt. McCluskey and Barzini (no wolf-specific skills specified)
Carlo Rizzi (wolf half of lover pair)

PM rights

The wolves (with restrictions)
Michael Corleone (with his wives, Appollonia Vitelli and Kay Adams, both with restrictions)
Kay Adams (with Michael Corleone, with restrictions)
Fredo Corleone (with Moe Greene)
Peter Clemenza (with Salvatore Tessio)
Salvatore Tessio (with Peter Clemenza)
Johnny Fontane (with Jack Woltz)
Jack Woltz (with Johnny Fontane)
Moe Greene (with Fredo Corleone)
Appollonia Vitelli (with Michael Corleone, with restrictions)

Vote Affects

Vito Corleone (counts as two votes; also, the duke)
Michael Corleone (counts as two votes)
Connie Corleone (counts as two votes against Carlo Rizzi)
Carlo Rizzi (vote will not count the day after Carlo finds Connie with his night search)
Sonny Corleone (counts as two votes)
Fredo Corleone (1. vote counts as two votes when on a good guy; 2. vote doesn't count if it's on Moe Greene)
Salvatore Tessio (vote counts as two votes when on a traitor)
Moe Greene (vote counts as two votes when on Fredo Corleone)

Non-Kill Night Abilities/Actions

Luca Brasi-- BG
Tom Hagen-- seer
Connie Corleone-- search for Carlo Rizzi (nightly)
Carlo Rizzi-- search for Connie Corleone (nightly)
Sonny Corleone-- action blocker (nightly, effect last two nights)

Hitman Ability

Luca Brasi-- A kill (The Turk will kill Luca instead if targetted; attacking the Capt. results in imprisonment out of game)
Michael Corleone-- One kill (per game; if Capt. alive, will be imprisoned, out of game exc when killing the Capt. or The Turk)
The wolves (presumeably they have a nightly night kill)
Phillip Tattaglia (when lynched/killed, a good player will be killed, too)

Could be instantly removed from game

Luca Brasi (if attacks Capt.)
Michael Corleone (if attacks anyone but The Turk or the Capt. and the Capt. is still alive)
Connie Corleone (if found by Carlo Rizzi and Sonny Corleone is dead)
Sonny Corleone (if Connie is found by Carlo before Sonny dies, Sonny will die)
Johnny Fontane (out if he receives the horse's head)
Jack Woltz (out if he receives the horse's head)
Any good guy (by Phillip Tattaglia's associate if Tattaglia dies)
Anyone (by whoever gets the gun and the canoli at the same time; not Clemenza)

Items

Horse's head-- starts with Tom Hagen; affects Johnny Fontane and Jack Woltz
Gun and canoli-- starts with Clemenza; affects whoever is targeted by the player who acquires both at the same time

[Danny]

Good analysis, you must be a wolf

[Chief Rum]

Haha, you must be wolf for thinking that!

Okay, this maybe has already been noted; sorry, haven't read all of the posts yet since game start. But there are 19 players in the game and there are 19 roles.

[Chief Rum]

If every role is thus in the game, we have four known wolves. I think more than five wolves would unbalance the game a bit. At most six (considering we don't see any wolf abilities, although maybe these are just hidden).

That means, of the numerous players we are uncertain of, at most only two of them will be traitors and probably just one.

[Danny]

Hmmm, that's true. Although it would mean that a well timed mass reveal could really hurt the wolves.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Danny

Hmmm, that's true. Although it would mean that a well timed mass reveal could really hurt the wolves.

I doubt that all the roles are in the game (otherwise there would be 5 wolves) so the wolves with strictly bad roles will just be able to claim the tweener roles they know no-one has. All a mass reveal will do is tell the wolfies were the juicy villager roles are.

But I agree about Chief. He's obviously trying too hard. Obviously a wolf.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I doubt that all the roles are in the game (otherwise there would be 5 wolves) so the wolves with strictly bad roles will just be able to claim the tweener roles they know no-one has. All a mass reveal will do is tell the wolfies were the juicy villager roles are.

But I agree about Chief. He's obviously trying too hard. Obviously a wolf.

I doubt as well, but if they were all present, that is something to consider. I expect Pass to not tell us.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Vote Affects

Vito Corleone (counts as two votes; also, the duke)
Michael Corleone (counts as two votes)

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

You read that right -- I think I will stick with a draw in that case -- or a double loss, since they'll both vote for each other and both die.

I think you've made the same mistake as others of us have made Chief. My understanding is that Vito and Michael don't have two votes, they count as two villagers for the wolf:villager ratio. That's what JAG and Passa were discussing on the first page.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I always find these sorts of comments a teensy bit suspious, or at least odd. It's like you're subconciously thinking "Oh noes! Someone might see me hanging around the thread and think I'm a wolf going through my PMs". I mean, read the thread and the roles and then post something. Doing it the other way round just seems strange to me (unless you intentionally planning a dola-fest).

It also contributes nothing, nothing, nothing to the villager cause or, for that matter, the cause of there being anything of interest going on at all in the thread. I was going to joke vote Lathum because he hadn't checked in yet. But instead I'll, eeny-meeny-miny-mo

Vote mckerney

While I appreciate being the miny and not the mo, calm down dude. This is just my second game. I've been at the hockey rinks all weekend (we're hosting the tournament this week). I just wanted to make a quick post in the thread to acknowledge that I was in and participating. My first game, there was some confusion about whether someone was playing or not. Admittedly, these roles are a bit confusing (thanks to Chief for your subsequent summary). Unfortunately, you'd be wasting your time trying to read between the lines of my posts.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I doubt that all the roles are in the game (otherwise there would be 5 wolves) so the wolves with strictly bad roles will just be able to claim the tweener roles they know no-one has. All a mass reveal will do is tell the wolfies were the juicy villager roles are.

I don't think it's impossible there would be more than the usual amount of wolves as the villagers might have a couple roles that would count as more than one villager. That could in part balance out having more than the usual amount of wolves.

I think a mass reveal off the bat wouldn't necessarily be as bad as you're suggesting, assuming all the roles were present. Obviously the four known traitor wolves would have to reveal as a duplicate role belonging to someone else, which means we would have four wolves narrowed down to eight players and then likely no more than one or two left other than that. That doesn't seem like too bad a trade-off for the knowledge the wolves would get in return.

My preference would not be to play it like that though, for three reasons. One, we don't know for sure that all roles are present in the game so the exercise could end up having all the downside without the upside. Two, some wolf roles would really benefit from knowing where certain good roles were (i.e. Connie Corleone) so there would be an element of shooting ourselves in the foot even if we did know all roles were present. And three, you don't have to share my opinion on this, but I don't really think it's in the spirit of the game. I find it to be kind of a cheesy tactic.

[J23]

I'd be a little surprised if every role was in the game. Even though the # of roles to players works out exactly, the roles were defined before the exact number of players was known if I'm not mistaken.

As far as why vote for XX player over another, it's day 1. What kind of reasoning do you expect? I'm not saying he isn't a valuable villager (go back and look at Vegas if you want proof), but the same could be said about many players. He had a late run the last couple games that I've seen, so I don't feel bad throwing a vote his way on day1 when I have no information.

[J23]

I'm refering to my vote on CR above btw, in case that wasn't obvious. I clearly shouldn't try writing coherently before noon.

[jeff061]

Handy summation Chief. The dual votes are going to make for some crazy vote analysis later on.

I'm not sure I want to vote out a player day one that has a history of high participation. I'm just talking nearly straight post count. Pretty much hitting the post button creates data that can be useful later on.

[JAG]

Vote mckerney

He was so under the radar last game, I almost forgot he was playing...and he was my race partner. (no qualms about his play for the race aspect for what it's worth, but after last game I'd rather see UTR players get some early heat).

[Autumn]

I agree with not going after top villagers day one, but flushing out the quieter players. I don't want to pile onto Mckerney though, and in general feel bad about picking on the newer players. I'll try to find someone quiet to vote for though.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Handy summation Chief. The dual votes are going to make for some crazy vote analysis later on.

Yes, the strange votes could make things crazy. The good news is that they won't really have any effect unless they make a vote result come out differently than we expected, which I think can often be revealing.

Also, if we can figure out any of those crazy votes some of them can tell us allegiance, which is fantastic.