FOFC GroupThink 2022: We take over the NY Football Giants

[QuikSand]

i'm obviously just falling victim to the hype

[QuikSand]

By the way, I am really liking the real-life Giants' signing of TE Ricky Seals-Jones. Just a spot on low-investment pickup there. I don't know what we had been calling for here at the position, but a guy just like that plus a middle round rookie is precisely what I'd want to see at TE1/TE2 post-Engram.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Evan Engram... continued to be physically tantalizing, but I presume we won't put up any resistance to him walking away. If Rudolph is also gone, that makes the TE position (on a weak-line team as is0 another weakness. Seems like that would be a position for a reasonable free agent and then a mid-tier draft pick, right?

Like... Anthony Firkser, or Ricky Seals-Jones... that's the level I'm thinking here for the veteran. Spend maybe 2m at the TE1 position.

oh yeah, what that guy said

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

The Athletic on Bradberry situation:



Quarterback carousel could help Giants find draft trade partner, James Bradberry update and more notes – The Athletic

Report: Colts Interested in Trading for Giants CB James Bradberry - Stampede Blue

[QuikSand]

Okay, I have a break between meetings, gonna walk through a mock NYG draft, on this site that is more trade-friendly:

NFL Mock Draft Simulator - Pro Football Network

Goal will be to add some capital by dealing down early.

= = = = =

Ok, so QB Willis goes ahead of pick 5 (along with DE Hutch, DE Walker, CB Gardner), so the board at 5 includes all the tackles, DE Thibodeaux, S Hamilton, CB Stingley (rated 18 on this board) and DE Johnson.

OK, this wasn't what I had in mind, but KC offers 29+30+50 all for pick 5 - let's see how this comes together, as a different look... I will still plan to take an OT at 7, then BPA afterward:

(then one more tiny trade-down at the end of round one)



I overlooked CB basically (this site doesn't make it easy to go back and see what you have done) but that's a different-looking batch than usual...

[DavidCorperial]

It actually does, you just have to click on the team logo and it shows you all of that teams picks

[albionmoonlight]

never mind

[albionmoonlight]

never mind

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by DavidCorperial

It actually does, you just have to click on the team logo and it shows you all of that teams picks

thanks

[Lathum]

Just signed an international RB named....Sandro Platzgummer.....championship.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

So we're sticking with young Mr. Jones.

Definitely get him a tackle with pick 5 or 7.

And if we can trade down to get some picks, we've got a lot of holes to fill. But who IRL is trading up?

I was looking at trade ups and Green Bay giving their 2 #1s and late 2 for #7 and our late 3rd(81ish) looked close to value. Even if we had to give up #5 instead of #7 to get it done.

[bhlloy]

Am I allowed to look for other job openings?

[bhlloy]

Turns out that’s a fake/satire account FWIW

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Turns out that’s a fake/satire account FWIW

Second time I've posted something here from one of those accounts. Guess I need to do more due diligence.

I really dislike this proliferation of "satire" accounts that just try to get clicks with plausibly fake stories that they can then claim are just an attempt to be funny.

I'll edit the posts above.

[QuikSand]

Another mock from the profootballnetwork.com site, with trades:

For something different, I again accept an offer - here from the Lions, they send 32 34 and next year's 1st for pick 1.5 (and Malik Willis, at least that checks out). Let's see what we can do here, though it might prove to be pretty similar to the last trade-down mock...

ATL moves up to 7 from 8, we gain 24 positions on day two to get pick 43.

...and we still get T Ekwonu with our pick at 1.8. Golden.

Jets move up in the early 2nd, this is too easy...



We carry out an extra 1,3, and 3 for 2023, and still manage a huge haul here. Absurd value. Unrealistic.

[QuikSand]

CB McCreary might indeed slide to round two... a little undersized. Three Bearcats wasn't a plan but I don't hate it.

[bhlloy]

I’ve seen Ojabo fall to the mid second in some mocks due to the injury - that would be an absolute no brainer. This team isn’t going to be good next year so he can take the redshirt year and we get a top 15 talent for cheap.

Love Drake Jackson. One of the only reasons to watch SC the last couple of years. But he’s raw, he’s had struggles keeping his weight up and he’s been coached poorly and switched between DE and OLB. I don’t see him being worth the pick at this point sadly.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I’ve seen Ojabo fall to the mid second in some mocks due to the injury - that would be an absolute no brainer. This team isn’t going to be good next year so he can take the redshirt year and we get a top 15 talent for cheap.

100% my thinking there as well

[QuikSand]

Another run at a NYG mock, using this site:
NFL Mock Draft Simulator | NFL Mock Draft Database

No gadgets this time, just "take this as seriously as possible" mode... only doing 4 rounds since the later rounds are just silly for me with my limited knowledge base (unless I'm taking the punter).



Okay, so the twist here was nearly all the QBs being available in the early 2nd... I took a flier on Pickett there. Still got a LB that I had occasionally been selecting in round 2, plus a promising TE. This feels like a great draft given the assets they come in with. No edge rusher, obviously, that's the obvious cost of the QB lottery ticket I suppose.

[albionmoonlight]

The Giants would be so happy with that draft.

You get high-end prospects at premium positions. And you still end up with a QB that a lot of people think could go in the top 10. All without giving up future assets.

That's how I hope the Saints approach the QB question. Jameis Winston is good enough that I do not want them to reach. But if they have their eye on a guy, and he happens to fall to them? Sure. Buy the lottery ticket. But don't start giving up future assets for a guy who would have been the 6th QB off the board last year.

[QuikSand]

I think the early 2nd QB menu could be substantially less appetizing than Willis or Pickett... another question I think is worth mulling here (in the spirit of a thread like this) is this:

-Assuming Willis and Pickett are the only 2x QBs gone for our early 2nd, do we take a spin with one of the other rookie QBs there?

...and then...

-Assuming Willis and Pickett are STILL the only 2x QBs gone for our early 3rd, do we take a spin with one of the other rookie QBs there?



I'd set the likelihood of the former at roughly 50%, and the latter at maybe 25%, so both scenarios seem worth contemplating.

[QuikSand]

I feel like the PFF mock engine is too heavily weighted toward their ratings, rather than "what we expect teams to think" but sometimes they do pull correct against-the-grain calls (like OT Andrew Thomas early in 2020)... anyway, here's a G-men mock through their engine, for a change of pace:

Soooooooo, all three OT available at 5 since Sauce went 1.4 here... that does feel like a realistic possibility, but it also presents an easy trade-down opportunity it seems, since I don't have them rated all that far apart, so... we trade 1.5 to get from Houston picks 13, 37, and 80. I like that a lot, even if it does mess up the utility of this exact slate of outcomes. I'll still plan to go OT then BPA, but my BPA is more likely to be an edge now than a corner, I'd guess...



Screenshot, 2022-04-04 19:40:08 - Paste.Pics

(looks like image host isn't working as intended here)

Okay, so if I'm mentally feeling like OT, Edge, and CB are the top needs... taking a BPA outside those three ends up forcing the issue somewhere else. I didn't love the CB options in the early 2nd, so I went Edge and S there, and this batch ends up short at CB as a result... I like the two mid-round stabs, but confidence can't be too high that you really hit there.

And here, the cost of the QB (meh) is we get nobody at TE in the first four rounds. I honestly didn't really dig there, maybe I overlooked someone I'd have liked more than one of the CBs.

I don't hate LB Lloyd as a fit for this team, but getting him rather than a CB1 had ripple effects all the way down the draft.

[albionmoonlight]

Four round mock at the PFN site. I forced a trade with the Saints for their two first rounders on the theory that they would jump up to five to grab Willis. My thinking here was to acknowledge our rebuild and try to collect a decent number of good-not-great pieces. And we picked up two second rounders next season for a possible trade up for a QB if (when) Jones turns out to not be the long term answer.



7. Ahmad Gardner CB Cincinnati
19.Trevor Penning OT Northern Iowa
36. David Ojabo EDGE Michigan
42. Trey McBride TE Colorado State
63.John Metchie III WR Alabama
67. Jalen Pitre S Baylor
81. Lecitus Smith OG Virginia Tech
112. Jerome Ford RB Cincinnati
2023 CIN 2nd
2023 IND 2nd

[QuikSand]

From FanSpeak, using their own main rankings:



Deliberate decision to start with OT/Edge...but then Wyatt was clear BPA in round 2. So, pass rush it is, we double dawg dare you. Don't know about Pitre as a DB tweener, I think I'd prefer a more pure outside corner, especially if we/they do deal/release Bradberry as still feels very likely.

[QuikSand]

Jalen Pitre Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

[QuikSand]

Inspired by a couple draft breakdowns I have gotten through recently...



Oh, I love this draft so much for the G-men. I hope they don't do it.

[QuikSand]

(running mock drafts for the Dolphins is soooooo boring this year, this has been a fun sidelight)

[QuikSand]

what pick would we accept, in this draft, straight up for RB Barkley and his entire contract?

[albionmoonlight]

If I am reading this right, we have no commitment to him in the future, and it would save us ~$7,000,000 this year: Saquon Barkley Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

I assume if he walks next year, we get a compensatory 3rd. And I'm not sure how much value $7,000,0000 has now as opposed to at the beginning of FA (I don't know the rules about carrying over excess cap to the new year).

So I'm in no hurry to trade him. I think that I'd want mid-second round or higher. And if no team bites, then I just go into next year with him on the roster.

[bhlloy]

If a 3 gets us the pick of the top backs in this years draft like most mocks are suggesting (and I suspect that won't be the case, one or two teams will fall in love and reach) then I guess a 3+5? Get a replacement on a better contract and more years of team control and another dart throw. QS can even take his punter he loves so much

[JPhillips]

On the other side, who offers more than a third-day pick given his production last year and injury history? He doesn't look like the guy he was during his rookie season.

[albionmoonlight]

I guess the flip side to my position, too, is what value does keeping him on our team in 2022 really accomplish? If he's really good, he makes us 6-11 instead of 4-13?

Do we think that we could sneak into a wild card this year in a diluted NFC?

In some ways, the Barkley question is a question about how competitive we want to be in 2022. And while I don't want to go into full tank mode, this team feels like it should be focusing on 2023 and beyond. This team isn't a few lucky bounces away from being an actual contender.

[QuikSand]

if a Barkley deal fetches us my punter i am ALL IN for it... sold at the price point being a 3 + 5

[sterlingice]

What do you think the real value of a potentially generational/revolutionary punter is since there's whispers that Araiza could be one? And I mean if you take the game theory out of it: no "hey, we should be able to get him in the 4th round because no one is going to waste a 3rd on a punter".

But, but like if every team fairly valued how much he can change a game relative to other positions, where should he get drafted? Is he more valuable than some developmental OL in the 4th or rando LB in the 3rd? How about that next tier of DTs in the 2nd? Starter at position of need or BPA in the late 1st?

Like where should he really get drafted?

SI

[QuikSand]

the PFF Mock Draft simulator lets you trade actual players, I got picks 106 and 188 for Barkley, and ran our the mock with those extra picks in hand, now figuring that adding a RB1 was among the draft objectives, though at the right price (like that 106):



I don't hate it. The premiere RBs went in the 2nd/3rd tier here, so I got the best one left at a pre-determined sweet spot. On every mock I run on every site, i end up with "OMG TAKE THIS TIGHT END" from round 2-4 or so... though the exact guy doesn't always match up.

[bhlloy]

Yeah I figured the price on RBs would probably creep up closer to the draft, but I still think I’d deal him for that. Like albion said, we are probably not resigning him so looking to the future makes sense (and hey if it improves the pick next year even better)

Whether you could actually get a 3+5 for him… dunno. Figure some team will think they can get him healthy and turn him around. But not sure if that is worth that much capital.

[albionmoonlight]

the most expensive WR room in 2022?

the New York Giants, at $40,152,615

the fewest TDs by a WR room in 2021?

the New York Giants, at 5 TDs

not only was it the fewest in 2021

it was the fewest by any WR room since 2017

and now they're the most expensive WR room in the NFL ��

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 12, 2022

[stevew]

I feel like we have to call about Kyler Murray. I get the whole depth through the line stuff, etc, but he makes us immediately relevant.

[bhlloy]

I think you have to make the call but the price on that would be outrageous. Does Jones, the two firsts this year plus two more firsts and a package of other players/picks even register?

I honestly don’t see why the Cards would even think about moving him this year with a weak QB class. I’d let him sit, if he really cares enough to give up a year of #1 overall pick salary let him stew and get a great pick next year plus an absolute haul.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

the PFF Mock Draft simulator lets you trade actual players, I got picks 106 and 188 for Barkley, and ran our the mock with those extra picks in hand, now figuring that adding a RB1 was among the draft objectives, though at the right price (like that 106):



I don't hate it. The premiere RBs went in the 2nd/3rd tier here, so I got the best one left at a pre-determined sweet spot. On every mock I run on every site, i end up with "OMG TAKE THIS TIGHT END" from round 2-4 or so... though the exact guy doesn't always match up.

Where did Allgeier go out of curiosity?

[QuikSand]

Allgeier is all over the map in these mocks... I have seen him among the top 10 RBs, and also near the tail end of the draft, just depends on where someone has slotted him in the rankings that drive each sim. He seems like a total wildcard.

[QuikSand]

So, I had plans to trade down, but Cross and Sauce felt too right as the start here, so no serious deal. Then LB Lloyd at 36? Okay, I don't see it happening, but this can be a best-case sort of deal, I suppose.



So, I left edge for awfully late, that's the big oversight here. But this would be a tremendous outcome - it's possible that off-ball LB is a position that does fall in round one, but Llloyd at 36 seems far-fetched.

RB Allgeier went with pick 145, btw

[QuikSand]

Another Cross and Sauce start here, on a different site...the round 2 options seem much more reasonable to me (LB Dean, QB Ridder, most of the RBs)... I decide to wait at edge again, and it shows, again... but less as Paschal feels like good value later on.



Not fully sold on LB Dean, but this is close to a NYG dream draft in my book.

[QuikSand]

I have to say, if we consider the three main need areas to be edge, RT, and CB in some order... waiting at CB may be the way to come out with all three of them best addressed.

[bhlloy]

From what I’ve been reading the drop from Gardner to a second round CB is far steeper than the drop from a Walker or Thibodeaux to a second round DE, at least in terms of the entire package. It also seems to me like an elite CB who can survive on an island is harder to find (if that’s our goal), but I can see the logic I guess.

[JPhillips]

I think I'd go DE, CB, and then RT in round 2 or 3.

[QuikSand]

Yeah, my mocks are all starting to take on the same flavors, at each site I have certain guys who are reliably available at certain slots...



And expect WR/RB/KR Pimpleton to start showing up as a late round flyer now, from me. I like this kid.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think I'd go DE, CB, and then RT in round 2 or 3.

I think this is actually a key point - if we aren’t looking for a franchise LT, typically you can find a decent RT or interior linemen in rounds 2-3 or even beyond, so maybe the defensive double stack does make the most sense here

[JPhillips]

Traded down twice from 4 to 11 and got a 1 and 2 2s next year while still getting the DE and CB this year.

7. Kayvon Thibodeaux
EDGE Oregon

11. Derek Stingley Jr.
CB LSU

36. Tyler Linderbaum
OC Iowa

81. Daniel Faalele
OT Minnesota

112. James Cook
RB Georgia

147. Alontae Taylor
CB Tennessee

173. Cole Turner
TE Nevada

182. Micah McFadden
LB Indiana

2023 WAS 1st
2023 CAR 2nd
2023 WAS 2nd

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Traded down twice from 4 to 11 and got a 1 and 2 2s next year while still getting the DE and CB this year.

7. Kayvon Thibodeaux
EDGE Oregon

11. Derek Stingley Jr.
CB LSU

36. Tyler Linderbaum
OC Iowa

81. Daniel Faalele
OT Minnesota

...

marvelous