OOTP Blitz 25: Solo RTS meets Moneyball - Page 3

Young Drachma · 11-18-2024, 03:17 PM

Emergency Pod Energy: Making Sense of the Cardinals and Stags at the Break

Are we sure the Cardinals and Stags are good? Like, actually good? We're doing that thing again where we're trying to convince ourselves that two teams with obvious fatal flaws can somehow figure it out in the second half. Let's break this down, Bill Simmons style.

The "Oh No, We Might Have Made a Huge Mistake" Cardinals

Here's my favorite stat: The Cardinals are 23-20 at home, 21-19 on the road. They're basically the same team everywhere! That's either impressive consistency or depressing mediocrity, depending on how many prospects you traded away for this performance. (Spoiler: They traded all of them.)

The thing nobody wants to talk about? Their run differential is actually pretty good! They're outscoring opponents by a decent margin, ranking top-3 in the NL in both ERA (3.53) and batting average (.260). This feels like one of those teams that should be better than their record, but then you look up and realize they're 14 games behind Cincinnati and you're like "wait, what?"

The Mark Wleh thing is real (2.78 ERA, 149 K in 132.2 IP). The Leuri Ramírez thing is definitely real (.336/.384/.607 with 48 extra-base hits!). But we're officially at the "Are we sure Urban Henry isn't washed?" stage of the season (4.03 ERA at age 39), and that's concerning.

The "We Had One Year to Get This Right" Stags

This might be my favorite subplot of the 2063 season. The Trust finally lets them spend money, and their rotation immediately posts a 5.81 ERA. That's not just bad - that's historically bad. It's like they ordered a rotation from Wish.com.

But here's the thing nobody's talking about: Their offense is actually incredible! They're slashing .277/.354/.457 as a team. Paul Correa is having that classic "guy who breaks out the year before his team has to trade him" season (.317/.376/.592). Even their catcher, Otis Ramírez, is raking (.299/.371/.460).

The "What Would You Do?" Game

If I'm running the Cardinals, I'm making one more push. You've already traded away your future - might as well go down swinging. They need another starter (Henry's peripherals are scary) and maybe a catcher who can hit above .207 (sorry, Chris Carter).

The Stags? This is brutal, but they have to start taking calls. The Trust's mandate means this team is getting torn down regardless - might as well maximize the return. Correa, Ramírez, and Stan Wallace could bring back actual prospects. Sometimes you have to know when to fold 'em.

The Weird "What If?" Scenarios

What if the Cardinals had just... not traded away baseball's #8 prospect? What if the Stags had spent their one year of real money on, I don't know, pitchers who can actually pitch? These are the questions that keep fans up at night.

The verdict

We're watching two teams who went all-in with very different definitions of "all." The Cardinals mortgaged the future for a wild card race. The Stags got one year to dream and turned it into a nightmare. The real winners? Cincinnati and Sacramento, who are probably wondering how they became the AL West/NL Central powerhouses while nobody was looking.

Are we sure this isn't the darkest timeline?

Young Drachma · 11-18-2024, 06:40 PM

Baseball Doesn't Care About Your Cinderella Story

This was supposed to be the Indianapolis Arrows' funeral march. Their lame-duck season before relocating to New Jersey, where some tech bro consortium led by Ethereum millionaire Devon "Web3" Watson paid $2.1 billion to move them to a yet-to-be-built stadium in Newark. Instead, they're leading the AL Central with the third-lowest payroll in baseball ($38.1M), because the sport occasionally likes to punch you in the gut while grinning.

The worst part isn't that they're good. The worst part is that Indianapolis has collectively shrugged. The Arrows are drawing fewer fans than the damn Phillies, who are actively trying to lose games. Just over a million people have bothered to show up at midseason to watch a first-place team, because why get attached to something that's already got one foot out the door?

It's 2003 Montreal Expos all over again, except MLB isn't actively sabotaging this team - reality is doing that job just fine. The new ownership group has made it clear there will be no additional spending. The deadline will come and go without reinforcements. The cruel mathematics of baseball say this team should regress, and management seems perfectly content to let that happen.

This is what happens when the sport treats its teams like NFTs to be flipped rather than civic institutions to be nurtured. The Arrows are winning despite a payroll that wouldn't cover Aaron Judge's breakfast tab. Their starting rotation, led by Avery Prescott (2.70 ERA) and Estefan Cuello (3.26 ERA), is putting up numbers that would make Sandy Koufax blush. Raymond Nadeau (.297/.373/.441) is having the kind of season that usually leads to a statue outside the ballpark. Instead, it'll probably lead to a trade to a "real" contender.

The fans aren't stupid. They know this ends with moving trucks and heartbreak. Better to keep your distance now than watch your team win just enough games to make leaving hurt more. The incoming owners talk about "market inefficiencies" and "optimization strategies" while the current team is actually winning baseball games despite having a payroll that makes the Pirates look like the Yankees.

Baseball is the only sport where success can feel like a curse. The Arrows are proving they can win with nothing, which means the new owners will probably give them exactly that when they reach Newark. The few thousand diehards still showing up to games are watching their team win while dying, like a star burning brightest just before it collapses.

Somewhere, Omar Minaya is watching this and nodding knowingly. At least MLB had the decency to kill the Expos' dreams officially. Indianapolis just has to watch their team succeed while knowing every win brings them closer to goodbye.

The Arrows open a three-game set with Detroit tomorrow. Tickets are available. Lots of them.

Young Drachma · 11-18-2024, 06:41 PM

Should the Orioles Consider the Unthinkable?

When the final out of the 2062 World Series settled into Dylan Madden's glove, the Baltimore Orioles looked poised for a dynasty. Fast forward to the 2063 All-Star break, and they're 41-43, sitting 4 games back in a suddenly combustible AL East that features the surprising Red Sox and Marlins atop the division.

The easy narrative would be to chalk this up to a championship hangover. But the underlying metrics suggest something more concerning: this might be who the 2063 Orioles actually are.

The Warning Signs
- Run differential suggests they're playing to their record
- Rotation ERA has risen from 3.45 (1st in AL) to 3.99 (3rd)
- Team OPS down 42 points from 2062
- Only Jesús Dávilos (13-2, 2.36 ERA) performing at 2062 levels

The Farm System Opportunity
Here's where it gets interesting. Despite going all-in for their 2062 title run, the Orioles still possess baseball's 8th-ranked farm system. This creates a fascinating strategic opportunity that most defending champions don't have: they could actually sell high on certain pieces and potentially extend their competitive window rather than watching it close.

Trade Candidates With Value
- Spencer Van Doren (.291/.351/.500, 11 HR)
- Buster Moreno (.317, 18 HR, 50 RBI)
- Rod Pitkin (8-6, 4.11 ERA)

The Case for Retooling
1. AL East suddenly looks like a gauntlet
2. Farm system could become elite with right moves
3. Core pieces still young enough to build around
4. Could acquire MLB-ready talent rather than pure prospects

The Projection Systems' View
ZiPS gives the Orioles just a 24% chance of making the playoffs, down from 76% in preseason. More concerningly, their three-year projection has declined significantly since Opening Day.

The Smart Play
Rather than watching their window potentially close, the Orioles could thread the needle: sell high on certain pieces, restock the farm system, and potentially compete again as soon as 2064 with a more sustainable core built around Dávilos.

Comparables
The 2019 Red Sox faced a similar decision after their 2018 title. They chose to half-measure it and ended up worse off. The Orioles have the opportunity to be proactive rather than reactive.

The next two weeks could define the franchise's trajectory for the next half-decade. Sometimes the boldest move is being willing to take a small step back to take two steps forward.

The Verdict
If the Orioles can get premium returns for players like Van Doren and Moreno while keeping their core intact, they should strongly consider it. Their farm system strength gives them a unique opportunity to retool without rebuilding - an opportunity most defending champions never get.

Sometimes you have to be willing to make the unpopular move to make the right one.

Young Drachma · Yesterday, 07:28 PM

I already figured out my spinoff of this dynasty, right now I'm still too invested in reporting the outcomes and no one really cares but me. So I'm going to divest from Portland after this year as I mentioned already and my new 2nd team are going to be the Yankees. Except, we'll be committed to them becoming a barnstorming team half of their home dates and I'll use their roster for all sorts of weird experiments like "what would it look like to have a roster of 40-50 OVR guys on a big league team" or "can a whole team of international players be competitive across a whole season?" Or maybe just some odd sabermetrics immersion, since I'm still not as good at referencing that stuff as i should be.

I obviously am always notorious for moving teams in my dynasties and given I'm adding a third New York team again, I felt like this was also a funny way to get myself to get through some seasons faster while also getting to try some stuff out.

I might just end this storyline at the end of the season and go straight into the Yankees storyline, but will continue to run updates of the familiar players and franchises as things advance. It'll also allow us to delve a bit into the history that's lapsed since 2023 when this league started, we've had some crazy stat eras in this universe because I hadn't really stabilized the statistics in the earlier versions of the game and so, for instance the all-time strikeouts record has been long broken and other weird things like that (though not home runs)

Anyway, there's way more to delve into in this universe, I mostly just want to futz more quickly, but managing a good team makes me less inclined to do that so I'm gonna take a bad team over and write about it, because being weird right now might be more fun, then I can god-mode all of the storyline stuff that I care about around the margins while we watch from the cheapseats from Omaha or Boise or wherever else I might make them visit.

Baseball's Death Star Goes Mobile, and Everyone's Getting Paid to Like It

The New York Yankees, baseball's most insufferably successful franchise and walking monument to pinstriped hubris, just sold for $12.8 billion to a group of people who think baseball teams should operate like Taylor Swift's Eras Tour. And the worst part? They might not be entirely wrong.

Laverne Ng, the impossibly Yale-educated managing partner of Quantum Frontier Partners who probably relaxes by hostile-takeovers of family-owned bakeries, spent 47 minutes Thursday explaining why baseball's most valuable franchise should spend half its time wandering the countryside like a barnstorming circus act from the 1920s. She used terms like "experiential revenue optimization" and "globally scalable entertainment vehicle" while old-time Yankees beat writers quietly died inside.

"The Yankees aren't just a baseball team," Ng explained, somehow managing to sound both condescending and evangelical at once. "They're a premium content platform with unprecedented brand elasticity. We're simply unleashing their potential from the artificial constraints of geographical permanence."

In other words, the Yankees are about to become baseball's first touring franchise, because apparently nobody at MLB headquarters had the courage to say "That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard" when someone suggests turning the sport's most valuable team into a baseball version of Phish.

The plan, as far as anyone can decode it from the PowerPoint slides filled with charts that only go up, is to split the Yankees' home games between Yankee Stadium and a series of yet-to-be-announced venues across the globe. The Stadium itself will be transformed into what Ng calls a "365-day entertainment destination," which presumably means charging $45 for craft beer while showing Yankees highlights on the jumbotron year-round.

MLB's owners approved the sale unanimously, primarily because they were all too busy counting their own potential franchise valuations after this deal. When you sell the Yankees for $12.8 billion, suddenly every owner gets to add a zero to their own franchise's theoretical worth. It's the kind of math that makes billionaires giddy.

Bryce Romney IV, Quantum's head of "Legacy Asset Transformation" and someone who definitely has strong opinions about yacht manufacturers, insisted this is the future of sports entertainment. "We're not moving the Yankees," he said, straightening his Hermès tie. "We're expanding their footprint to match their cultural significance." The fact that this footprint now includes charging $500 for premium tickets in cities to be named later is, presumably, just a happy coincidence.

The Bronx, predictably, is taking this about as well as you'd expect. Local business owners around the stadium are furious, fans are threatening to cancel season tickets they've had since Mantle played center field, and politicians are writing strongly-worded letters that will be immediately recycled by Quantum's army of lawyers.

But here's the thing that makes this whole absurd venture just crazy enough to work: The Yankees actually might be the only franchise that could pull this off. Their brand is so culturally embedded, their mystique so artificially amplified, that they might actually be more valuable as a touring act than a traditional baseball team. They're baseball's Rolling Stones – everyone wants to see them once, even if half the audience is there ironically.

"The Yankees transcend baseball," Ng insisted, probably while mentally calculating the markup on limited edition market-specific merchandise. "We're not bound by convention. We're creating a new paradigm for sports entertainment."

The saddest part? She's probably right. In a world where teams routinely blackmail cities for stadium funding and treat fans like walking credit cards, turning baseball's most famous franchise into a touring roadshow isn't even the most cynical thing to happen to baseball this decade. It might not even be the most cynical thing to happen this week.

When asked about concerns that this plan fundamentally alters the nature of what a baseball team means to its community, Romney offered the kind of response that only someone who summers in the Hamptons could deliver with a straight face: "We're not altering tradition. We're amplifying it. The Yankees belong to the world now."

The Yankees will begin their transformation in 2064, and god help us all, because if this works, every private equity firm with a Bloomberg terminal and a PowerPoint license is going to start eyeing other franchises. Baseball teams as touring acts. What's next – timeshare ballparks? Pay-per-view batting practice?

Actually, don't answer that. Someone at Quantum Frontier is probably already working on the pitch deck.

Young Drachma · Yesterday, 08:59 PM

BRONX BOMBERS GO BARNSTORMING: Yanks' $12.8B Sale Plots Wild 2064 Tour

STADIUM STUNNER: PINSTRIPES HIT THE ROAD

The ghost of Miller Huggins must be spinning in his grave.

In a jaw-dropping $12.8 billion deal that makes cryptocurrency look stable, the Yankees were sold to Quantum Frontier Partners yesterday, with plans to turn baseball's marquee franchise into baseball's first touring road show. And if you think that's crazy, wait till you hear where they're playing.

"The post-antitrust era demands innovation," declared Laverne Ng, the Stanford-polished managing partner of Quantum, speaking from a Stadium suite that costs more than your house. "Baseball's territorial restrictions are relics of the past. We're writing the future."

TOUR DE FARCE?

The 2064 "Yankees Worldwide Tour" reads like a geography exam written by a baseball executive having a fever dream. The schedule includes stops in:

Quote:

- Omaha (Because nothing says Yankees baseball like corn fields)
- Minneapolis (Still bitter about losing the Twins to Charlotte)
- Indianapolis (Last stop before the Arrows fly to Jersey)
- Boise (Former home of the two-time champion Spuds, who've moved more times than your cousin who can't hold a job)
- Oakland (Where the A's are just a distant memory)
- Louisville (One-year wonder)

- London's Lord's Cricket Ground (Tea and crumpets with your hot dogs, guv'nor?)

"Each city represents a unique chapter in modern baseball's evolution," Romney explained, definitely not pointing out that most of these places are baseball's equivalent of abandoned movie theaters.

BRAVE NEW WORLD

Thank (or blame) the Supreme Court's landmark 2059 decision in "Martinez v. MLB" that finally killed baseball's antitrust exemption. Since then, franchises have been playing musical chairs faster than prospects getting traded at the deadline.

Just ask Boise fans, who went from celebrating two World Series titles to watching their beloved Spuds bounce to Louisville, then San Antonio, before finally landing in OKC. Or check with Minneapolis, still nursing its wounds after the Twins packed up for Charlotte faster than you can say "ya sure, you betcha."

MONEY TALKS

Baseball Commissioner K. Hansen Antonetti (no relation to the case that blew up the old system) called the deal "a natural evolution of baseball's territorial flexibility." That's corporate speak for "someone's about to make it rain."

The plan calls for maintaining just 41 games in the Bronx, with the rest scattered across what Quantum calls "emerging and legacy markets." Because nothing says "legacy market" like Boise, Idaho.

BY THE NUMBERS

Quote:

- $12.8B: Sale price (more than some countries' GDP)
- 7: Cities on the inaugural tour
- 41: Games staying in the Bronx
- 40: Games on the "Premium Market Tour"
- 2: World Series titles won by the now-extinct Boise Spuds
- ∞: Number of fans saying "Back in my day..."

BOTTOM LINE

Twenty years after the A's became baseball's first modern casualty, the sport has transformed into something Babe Ruth wouldn't recognize unless he was really, really squinting. Teams hop cities like kids playing hopscotch, the antitrust exemption is as dead as the spitball, and now baseball's most storied franchise is going on tour like they're opening for Taylor Swift's granddaughter.

But here's the real kicker – in this brave new baseball world, it actually makes a twisted kind of sense. Since Martinez v. MLB opened the floodgates, we've seen two-time champs play in three different cities in as many years (looking at you, Spuds), the Twins trade Minnesota nice for Carolina BBQ, and now the Yankees are about to play home games at a cricket ground.

WHAT'S NEXT?
- Detailed tour schedule (once MLB figures out how time zones work)
- Stadium modification plans for seven different ballparks
- Souvenir jerseys in more varieties than Baskin-Robbins has flavors
- More moving vans than a college dorm in September

One veteran baseball exec, speaking on condition of anonymity because he's not insane, summed it up: "First the Spuds win it all twice and bounce around like a pinball, now the Yankees are going on tour. I'm starting to think that 2059 Supreme Court decision might have had some unintended consequences."

Ya think?

Young Drachma · Today, 12:00 AM

Paint or Get Off the Canvas: Why the 2063 Cardinals Can't Afford to Wait

Remember how 2063 started? The fresh paint was barely dry on what looked like a masterpiece in the making. Mark Wleh and Urban Henry were going to anchor a rotation that would dominate the league. The front office had their brushes out all winter, making the subtle touches that turn good teams into great ones. We were all thinking about October before Opening Day.

Funny how baseball humbles you.

Now here we sit, deadline bearing down like an 0-2 fastball, and the Cardinals are scrapping for a wild card spot in the unforgiving Ladder system. The masterpiece? It's looking more like a paint-by-numbers kit with missing colors.

Let's be clear about what we're watching: Leuri Ramírez is putting up MVP numbers (.330 AVG, .573 SLG) that would make Stan Musial nod in approval. Pinwheel Brown and Archer Fernández are doing their parts. Wleh has been nothing short of brilliant (13-9, 2.48 ERA), making hitters look foolish with the kind of consistency that makes you think of Gibson.

But it's not enough. Not when you're fighting for your playoff life. Not when last year's Game 9 loss in the World Series still stings like a hangover that won't quit.

The front office is doing what front offices do – weighing options, counting costs, thinking about tomorrow. It's admirable, in a way, like a chess player thinking six moves ahead. But this isn't chess. This is baseball, and flags fly forever.

Yes, the bullpen has moments. Everett Morrow and Micah Sheehy can lock it down when everything clicks. But "when everything clicks" isn't a strategy – it's a prayer. And prayers don't win pennants.

The outfield needs depth. The lineup needs another big bat to protect Ramírez. Sandy Cook and Jon Gallegos are fine players, but "fine" doesn't get you through the gauntlet of the Ladder playoffs. Ask the 2062 team about that.

Here's what the front office needs to understand: The 2006 Cardinals didn't win by playing it safe. The 2011 team – our last taste of championship champagne – didn't get there by being prudent. They got there by seizing their moment.

This is our moment.

The trade market has options. The international circuits are buzzing with talent. The Cuban Winter League, the emerging powerhouses in Africa, the Australian summer league wrapping up – there's talent out there if you're willing to be bold enough to grab it.

To the front office: Stop painting in watercolors when the moment calls for oils. Stop thinking about 2064 when 2063 is right here, begging for attention. The fans who pack Busch Stadium aren't interested in five-year plans. They want October glory, and they want it now.

Wleh isn't going to keep dealing forever. Ramírez isn't going to hit .330 until he's 40. Urban Henry (12-6, 4.17 ERA) and Bob Chávez (7-6, 5.00 ERA) are what they are – good pitchers who need help.

The deadline is coming. The talent is out there. The moment is here.

Paint the masterpiece, or get out of the studio.

Young Drachma · Today, 12:05 AM

2063 STANDINGS AS OF JULY 29, 2063

Code:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Eastern Division 	W 	L 	PCT 	GB
Boston Red Sox 		67 	53 	.558 	-
Carolina Twins 		65 	55 	.542 	2.0
Miami Marlins 		61 	57 	.517 	5.0
Toronto Blue Jays 	61 	57 	.517 	5.0
Baltimore Orioles 	58 	60 	.492 	8.0
New York Yankees 	43 	75 	.364 	23.0

Central Division 	W 	L 	PCT 	GB
Nashville White Sox 	67 	51 	.568 	-
Cleveland Guardians 	64 	54 	.542 	3.0
Indianapolis Arrows 	59 	61 	.492 	9.0
Kansas City Monarchs 	55 	63 	.466 	12.0
Detroit Tigers 		51 	69 	.425 	17.0
Milwaukee Brewers 	50 	68 	.424 	17.0

Western Division 	W 	L 	PCT 	GB
Sacramento Solons 	78 	40 	.661 	-
Texas Rangers 		65 	55 	.542 	14.0
Portland Stags 		57 	61 	.483 	21.0
Albuquerque Coyotes 	56 	62 	.475 	22.0
Seattle Mariners 	57 	63 	.475 	22.0
San Diego Padres 	54 	64 	.458 	24.0

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Eastern Division 	W 	L 	PCT 	GB
Washington Grays 	71 	47 	.602 	-
New York Mets 		66 	52 	.559 	5.0
Tampa Bay Giants 	62 	56 	.525 	9.0
Montreal Expos 		56 	62 	.475 	15.0
Atlanta Braves 		45 	73 	.381 	26.0
Philadelphia Phillies 	43 	75 	.364 	28.0

Central Division 	W 	L 	PCT 	GB
Cincinnati Reds 	79 	39 	.669 	-
St. Louis Cardinals 	65 	53 	.551 	14.0
Chicago Cubs 		64 	54 	.542 	15.0
Oklahoma City 89ers 	55 	63 	.466 	24.0
New Orleans Pirates 	53 	65 	.449 	26.0
Houston Astros 		52 	66 	.441 	27.0

Western Division 	W 	L 	PCT 	GB
Colorado Rockies 	71 	49 	.592 	-
Arizona Diamondbacks 	60 	58 	.508 	10.0
Los Angeles Dodgers 	59 	61 	.492 	12.0
San Francisco Seals 	57 	61 	.483 	13.0
Vancouver Angels 	56 	62 	.475 	14.0
Salt Lake Bees	 	50 	68 	.424 	20.0

Young Drachma · Today, 02:45 AM

How an Icelandic Arm Might Save the Cardinals' Season

Sometimes the best stories in baseball come from the most unlikely places. Like, say, Reykjavik.

While everyone was focused on the Cardinals' deadline dealing – the River Wang acquisition, the Saul Friedman veteran grab – the most intriguing move might have been the one that raised the most eyebrows: signing 23-year-old Virgill Haraldsson out of the Dutch leagues.

Yes, you read that right. Iceland by way of the Netherlands.

In an era where teams are scouring Cuba, Nigeria, and the Australian summer leagues for talent, the Cardinals found their secret weapon throwing in a country better known for soccer and speed skating. But here's the thing: it's working.

Since joining St. Louis, Haraldsson has posted a 3.78 ERA across 47.2 innings, striking out 27 while walking only 9. The Nordic newcomer has shown the kind of poise you don't expect from someone whose career path reads like a geography final: Tucson to Baltimore to Iceland's European Baseball Championship squad and then to the Dutch leagues.

Compare this to Portland's deadline approach – swapping minor leaguers like baseball cards and picking up Eli Russell from Miami's scrap heap – and you see why the Cardinals' front office deserves credit. While other teams were working the phones for the usual suspects, St. Louis was watching grainy footage of Dutch league games, betting that talent can come from anywhere.

Haraldsson's journey – from the Federal League to the European Championships to the heat of a pennant race – is the kind of story that makes baseball special. He's not just surviving; he's thriving. His last outing against Salt Lake showcased a pitcher who belongs, European pedigree and all.

The lesson here isn't just about Haraldsson. It's about imagination. While Portland played it safe and somehow stayed in the race through sheer stubbornness, the Cardinals got creative. They looked where others wouldn't, found talent where others didn't think to look.

In a season where the Cardinals needed everything to break right to catch Cincinnati, maybe their best break came from a country known more for its northern lights than its baseball highlights. Baseball's next frontier might not be where we expect it to be.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to learn how to pronounce "Reykjavik" correctly before my next radio hit.

Left For Dead at the All-Star Break, Portland's Making The Impossible Look Routine... Again

If you'd told anyone in mid-July that we'd be talking about the Portland Stags and the playoffs in the same breath come September, they'd have assumed you were hitting the microbreweries a bit too hard. They were meandering through a mediocre season, the defending American League champions looking nothing like the squad that rode Rocky Smith's miracle complete game to the ALCS last October.

Then they did something truly radical: absolutely nothing.

Well, almost nothing. While contenders were wheeling and dealing, the Stags' biggest moves were shipping Layton Willingham back to St. Louis for prospects and picking up Eli Russell from Miami's bargain bin. The kind of moves that make fans check if their season tickets are refundable.

And yet here we are. The Stags are 77-70, firmly in the Ladder playoff hunt, playing the kind of resilient baseball that made them last year's darlings. They're seven games over .500 since the break, climbing back into relevance with all the subtlety of a cat burglar wearing tap shoes.

How? That's the beautiful part. They didn't do it with splashy acquisitions or desperate trades. They did it by trusting the same core that got them here last year. By believing that sometimes the best move is no move at all.

The rotation, patched together with duct tape and dreams after Willingham's departure, has somehow held together. Emil Briones came off the IL looking like a new man. Troy Charter, called up from Triple-A Eugene with zero fanfare, has been throwing like someone who took personal offense at not being on prospect lists.

Meanwhile, teams that loaded up at the deadline are watching the Stags in their rearview mirror, getting closer by the day. Sacramento's got a lock on the division at 94-53, but in the wild Ladder format, all you need is a chance. Portland proved that last year.

"We've been here before," said manager Xavier Thompson, master of understatement. "These guys know what it takes. Sometimes chemistry isn't about adding ingredients – it's about letting what you have simmer."

That simmer is now a full boil. The Stags aren't just hanging around; they're playing their best baseball when it matters most. The same stadium that hosted last year's ALCS might get another taste of October baseball, and they did it their way – by standing pat when everyone expected panic.

It's a lesson in patience in a sport that increasingly has none. While teams like St. Louis were scouring Dutch leagues for arms (credit where it's due – that Icelandic kid can deal) and throwing prospects at every available veteran, Portland doubled down on what got them here.

Is it sustainable? Who knows. But they said the same thing last year when Portland entered the Ladder playoffs as underdogs. All they did then was make history as the first wild card team to navigate four rounds.

The schedule isn't kind – they've still got six against Sacramento and that crucial series with Texas looming. But the Stags have made a habit of doing things the hard way. Why stop now?

Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make. Sometimes faith in what you've built pays off more than a deadline shopping spree. And sometimes, just sometimes, being left for dead at the All-Star break is exactly where you want to be.

Baseball's funny that way.

Young Drachma · Today, 02:47 AM

September's Gauntlet: Analyzing the Final Stretch for Two Contenders

With one month left in the regular season, let's break down the remaining schedules for both the Portland Stags and St. Louis Cardinals as they push for Ladder playoff positions.

Portland Stags (77-70)
Remaining Schedule Breakdown:
- 4 vs San Diego (66-83)
- 3 at Baltimore (74-75)
- 2 vs New York Yankees (57-90)
- 4 at Texas (80-67)
- 3 vs Sacramento (94-53)

Strength of Schedule Analysis:
The Stags' path is fascinating. They open with four against the struggling Padres, which could be crucial for building momentum. However, the meat of their schedule is brutal: that four-game set in Texas (Sept 10-13) could effectively decide their wild card fate, as the Rangers are one of their primary competitors for a Ladder spot.

The three-game series against Sacramento (Sept 14-16) looms large, but the Solons may have the division wrapped up by then and could be resting players. The schedule makers did Portland a favor by giving them the Yankees in the middle of this stretch – those two games against the AL East cellar-dwellers could be vital breathing room.

St. Louis Cardinals (84-63)
Remaining Schedule Breakdown:
- 2 at Salt Lake (66-81)
- 3 vs Atlanta (62-85)
- 4 vs Oklahoma City (67-80)
- 4 vs New Orleans (61-86)
- 3 at Cincinnati (97-52)

Strength of Schedule Analysis:
If you're the Cardinals, you're looking at this September schedule and trying not to smile too obviously. Outside of those three games against the division-leading Reds, St. Louis faces nobody with a winning record. The four-game sets against both Oklahoma City and New Orleans should be particularly advantageous – those teams are a combined 56 games under .500.

Playoff Implications:
The Cardinals, currently holding the first NL wild card spot (+3 over Nashville), have a clear path to securing their Ladder position. Their schedule difficulty is bottom-tier until that final Cincinnati series, which might not even matter for seeding purposes.

Portland has the tougher road, but they've been here before. Last year's historic run through the Ladder playoffs started from an even more precarious position. The key stretch will be September 10-16: seven games against Texas and Sacramento that could either cement their comeback story or end it.

Key Factors:
- Portland's head-to-head with Texas could swing the AL wild card race by 4+ games
- St. Louis has 13 straight games against sub-.500 teams before facing Cincinnati
- Both teams finish their scheduled games by September 16th, leaving potential makeup dates or tiebreakers

Projected Finish:
- Cardinals: 92-70 (8-7 in remaining games)
- Stags: 84-78 (7-8 in remaining games)

The Cardinals should cruise into the Ladder playoffs barring a complete collapse. For Portland, it likely comes down to that Texas series – win 3 of 4 there, and the miracle run continues. Split or lose it, and last year's ALCS appearance might be their last taste of October for a while.

Remember though: We said the same thing about Portland's chances last September, and all they did was make history.

Today, 12:00 AM	#106
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	Paint or Get Off the Canvas: Why the 2063 Cardinals Can't Afford to Wait Remember how 2063 started? The fresh paint was barely dry on what looked like a masterpiece in the making. Mark Wleh and Urban Henry were going to anchor a rotation that would dominate the league. The front office had their brushes out all winter, making the subtle touches that turn good teams into great ones. We were all thinking about October before Opening Day. Funny how baseball humbles you. Now here we sit, deadline bearing down like an 0-2 fastball, and the Cardinals are scrapping for a wild card spot in the unforgiving Ladder system. The masterpiece? It's looking more like a paint-by-numbers kit with missing colors. Let's be clear about what we're watching: Leuri Ramírez is putting up MVP numbers (.330 AVG, .573 SLG) that would make Stan Musial nod in approval. Pinwheel Brown and Archer Fernández are doing their parts. Wleh has been nothing short of brilliant (13-9, 2.48 ERA), making hitters look foolish with the kind of consistency that makes you think of Gibson. But it's not enough. Not when you're fighting for your playoff life. Not when last year's Game 9 loss in the World Series still stings like a hangover that won't quit. The front office is doing what front offices do – weighing options, counting costs, thinking about tomorrow. It's admirable, in a way, like a chess player thinking six moves ahead. But this isn't chess. This is baseball, and flags fly forever. Yes, the bullpen has moments. Everett Morrow and Micah Sheehy can lock it down when everything clicks. But "when everything clicks" isn't a strategy – it's a prayer. And prayers don't win pennants. The outfield needs depth. The lineup needs another big bat to protect Ramírez. Sandy Cook and Jon Gallegos are fine players, but "fine" doesn't get you through the gauntlet of the Ladder playoffs. Ask the 2062 team about that. Here's what the front office needs to understand: The 2006 Cardinals didn't win by playing it safe. The 2011 team – our last taste of championship champagne – didn't get there by being prudent. They got there by seizing their moment. This is our moment. The trade market has options. The international circuits are buzzing with talent. The Cuban Winter League, the emerging powerhouses in Africa, the Australian summer league wrapping up – there's talent out there if you're willing to be bold enough to grab it. To the front office: Stop painting in watercolors when the moment calls for oils. Stop thinking about 2064 when 2063 is right here, begging for attention. The fans who pack Busch Stadium aren't interested in five-year plans. They want October glory, and they want it now. Wleh isn't going to keep dealing forever. Ramírez isn't going to hit .330 until he's 40. Urban Henry (12-6, 4.17 ERA) and Bob Chávez (7-6, 5.00 ERA) are what they are – good pitchers who need help. The deadline is coming. The talent is out there. The moment is here. Paint the masterpiece, or get out of the studio. Last edited by Young Drachma : Today at 12:03 AM.

11-18-2024, 03:17 PM	#101
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	Emergency Pod Energy: Making Sense of the Cardinals and Stags at the Break Are we sure the Cardinals and Stags are good? Like, actually good? We're doing that thing again where we're trying to convince ourselves that two teams with obvious fatal flaws can somehow figure it out in the second half. Let's break this down, Bill Simmons style. The "Oh No, We Might Have Made a Huge Mistake" Cardinals Here's my favorite stat: The Cardinals are 23-20 at home, 21-19 on the road. They're basically the same team everywhere! That's either impressive consistency or depressing mediocrity, depending on how many prospects you traded away for this performance. (Spoiler: They traded all of them.) The thing nobody wants to talk about? Their run differential is actually pretty good! They're outscoring opponents by a decent margin, ranking top-3 in the NL in both ERA (3.53) and batting average (.260). This feels like one of those teams that should be better than their record, but then you look up and realize they're 14 games behind Cincinnati and you're like "wait, what?" The Mark Wleh thing is real (2.78 ERA, 149 K in 132.2 IP). The Leuri Ramírez thing is definitely real (.336/.384/.607 with 48 extra-base hits!). But we're officially at the "Are we sure Urban Henry isn't washed?" stage of the season (4.03 ERA at age 39), and that's concerning. The "We Had One Year to Get This Right" Stags This might be my favorite subplot of the 2063 season. The Trust finally lets them spend money, and their rotation immediately posts a 5.81 ERA. That's not just bad - that's historically bad. It's like they ordered a rotation from Wish.com. But here's the thing nobody's talking about: Their offense is actually incredible! They're slashing .277/.354/.457 as a team. Paul Correa is having that classic "guy who breaks out the year before his team has to trade him" season (.317/.376/.592). Even their catcher, Otis Ramírez, is raking (.299/.371/.460). The "What Would You Do?" Game If I'm running the Cardinals, I'm making one more push. You've already traded away your future - might as well go down swinging. They need another starter (Henry's peripherals are scary) and maybe a catcher who can hit above .207 (sorry, Chris Carter). The Stags? This is brutal, but they have to start taking calls. The Trust's mandate means this team is getting torn down regardless - might as well maximize the return. Correa, Ramírez, and Stan Wallace could bring back actual prospects. Sometimes you have to know when to fold 'em. The Weird "What If?" Scenarios What if the Cardinals had just... not traded away baseball's #8 prospect? What if the Stags had spent their one year of real money on, I don't know, pitchers who can actually pitch? These are the questions that keep fans up at night. The verdict We're watching two teams who went all-in with very different definitions of "all." The Cardinals mortgaged the future for a wild card race. The Stags got one year to dream and turned it into a nightmare. The real winners? Cincinnati and Sacramento, who are probably wondering how they became the AL West/NL Central powerhouses while nobody was looking. Are we sure this isn't the darkest timeline?

11-18-2024, 06:40 PM	#102
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	Baseball Doesn't Care About Your Cinderella Story This was supposed to be the Indianapolis Arrows' funeral march. Their lame-duck season before relocating to New Jersey, where some tech bro consortium led by Ethereum millionaire Devon "Web3" Watson paid $2.1 billion to move them to a yet-to-be-built stadium in Newark. Instead, they're leading the AL Central with the third-lowest payroll in baseball ($38.1M), because the sport occasionally likes to punch you in the gut while grinning. The worst part isn't that they're good. The worst part is that Indianapolis has collectively shrugged. The Arrows are drawing fewer fans than the damn Phillies, who are actively trying to lose games. Just over a million people have bothered to show up at midseason to watch a first-place team, because why get attached to something that's already got one foot out the door? It's 2003 Montreal Expos all over again, except MLB isn't actively sabotaging this team - reality is doing that job just fine. The new ownership group has made it clear there will be no additional spending. The deadline will come and go without reinforcements. The cruel mathematics of baseball say this team should regress, and management seems perfectly content to let that happen. This is what happens when the sport treats its teams like NFTs to be flipped rather than civic institutions to be nurtured. The Arrows are winning despite a payroll that wouldn't cover Aaron Judge's breakfast tab. Their starting rotation, led by Avery Prescott (2.70 ERA) and Estefan Cuello (3.26 ERA), is putting up numbers that would make Sandy Koufax blush. Raymond Nadeau (.297/.373/.441) is having the kind of season that usually leads to a statue outside the ballpark. Instead, it'll probably lead to a trade to a "real" contender. The fans aren't stupid. They know this ends with moving trucks and heartbreak. Better to keep your distance now than watch your team win just enough games to make leaving hurt more. The incoming owners talk about "market inefficiencies" and "optimization strategies" while the current team is actually winning baseball games despite having a payroll that makes the Pirates look like the Yankees. Baseball is the only sport where success can feel like a curse. The Arrows are proving they can win with nothing, which means the new owners will probably give them exactly that when they reach Newark. The few thousand diehards still showing up to games are watching their team win while dying, like a star burning brightest just before it collapses. Somewhere, Omar Minaya is watching this and nodding knowingly. At least MLB had the decency to kill the Expos' dreams officially. Indianapolis just has to watch their team succeed while knowing every win brings them closer to goodbye. The Arrows open a three-game set with Detroit tomorrow. Tickets are available. Lots of them.

11-18-2024, 06:41 PM	#103
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	Should the Orioles Consider the Unthinkable? When the final out of the 2062 World Series settled into Dylan Madden's glove, the Baltimore Orioles looked poised for a dynasty. Fast forward to the 2063 All-Star break, and they're 41-43, sitting 4 games back in a suddenly combustible AL East that features the surprising Red Sox and Marlins atop the division. The easy narrative would be to chalk this up to a championship hangover. But the underlying metrics suggest something more concerning: this might be who the 2063 Orioles actually are. The Warning Signs - Run differential suggests they're playing to their record - Rotation ERA has risen from 3.45 (1st in AL) to 3.99 (3rd) - Team OPS down 42 points from 2062 - Only Jesús Dávilos (13-2, 2.36 ERA) performing at 2062 levels The Farm System Opportunity Here's where it gets interesting. Despite going all-in for their 2062 title run, the Orioles still possess baseball's 8th-ranked farm system. This creates a fascinating strategic opportunity that most defending champions don't have: they could actually sell high on certain pieces and potentially extend their competitive window rather than watching it close. Trade Candidates With Value - Spencer Van Doren (.291/.351/.500, 11 HR) - Buster Moreno (.317, 18 HR, 50 RBI) - Rod Pitkin (8-6, 4.11 ERA) The Case for Retooling 1. AL East suddenly looks like a gauntlet 2. Farm system could become elite with right moves 3. Core pieces still young enough to build around 4. Could acquire MLB-ready talent rather than pure prospects The Projection Systems' View ZiPS gives the Orioles just a 24% chance of making the playoffs, down from 76% in preseason. More concerningly, their three-year projection has declined significantly since Opening Day. The Smart Play Rather than watching their window potentially close, the Orioles could thread the needle: sell high on certain pieces, restock the farm system, and potentially compete again as soon as 2064 with a more sustainable core built around Dávilos. Comparables The 2019 Red Sox faced a similar decision after their 2018 title. They chose to half-measure it and ended up worse off. The Orioles have the opportunity to be proactive rather than reactive. The next two weeks could define the franchise's trajectory for the next half-decade. Sometimes the boldest move is being willing to take a small step back to take two steps forward. The Verdict If the Orioles can get premium returns for players like Van Doren and Moreno while keeping their core intact, they should strongly consider it. Their farm system strength gives them a unique opportunity to retool without rebuilding - an opportunity most defending champions never get. Sometimes you have to be willing to make the unpopular move to make the right one.

Yesterday, 07:28 PM	#104
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	I already figured out my spinoff of this dynasty, right now I'm still too invested in reporting the outcomes and no one really cares but me. So I'm going to divest from Portland after this year as I mentioned already and my new 2nd team are going to be the Yankees. Except, we'll be committed to them becoming a barnstorming team half of their home dates and I'll use their roster for all sorts of weird experiments like "what would it look like to have a roster of 40-50 OVR guys on a big league team" or "can a whole team of international players be competitive across a whole season?" Or maybe just some odd sabermetrics immersion, since I'm still not as good at referencing that stuff as i should be. I obviously am always notorious for moving teams in my dynasties and given I'm adding a third New York team again, I felt like this was also a funny way to get myself to get through some seasons faster while also getting to try some stuff out. I might just end this storyline at the end of the season and go straight into the Yankees storyline, but will continue to run updates of the familiar players and franchises as things advance. It'll also allow us to delve a bit into the history that's lapsed since 2023 when this league started, we've had some crazy stat eras in this universe because I hadn't really stabilized the statistics in the earlier versions of the game and so, for instance the all-time strikeouts record has been long broken and other weird things like that (though not home runs) Anyway, there's way more to delve into in this universe, I mostly just want to futz more quickly, but managing a good team makes me less inclined to do that so I'm gonna take a bad team over and write about it, because being weird right now might be more fun, then I can god-mode all of the storyline stuff that I care about around the margins while we watch from the cheapseats from Omaha or Boise or wherever else I might make them visit. Baseball's Death Star Goes Mobile, and Everyone's Getting Paid to Like It The New York Yankees, baseball's most insufferably successful franchise and walking monument to pinstriped hubris, just sold for $12.8 billion to a group of people who think baseball teams should operate like Taylor Swift's Eras Tour. And the worst part? They might not be entirely wrong. Laverne Ng, the impossibly Yale-educated managing partner of Quantum Frontier Partners who probably relaxes by hostile-takeovers of family-owned bakeries, spent 47 minutes Thursday explaining why baseball's most valuable franchise should spend half its time wandering the countryside like a barnstorming circus act from the 1920s. She used terms like "experiential revenue optimization" and "globally scalable entertainment vehicle" while old-time Yankees beat writers quietly died inside. "The Yankees aren't just a baseball team," Ng explained, somehow managing to sound both condescending and evangelical at once. "They're a premium content platform with unprecedented brand elasticity. We're simply unleashing their potential from the artificial constraints of geographical permanence." In other words, the Yankees are about to become baseball's first touring franchise, because apparently nobody at MLB headquarters had the courage to say "That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard" when someone suggests turning the sport's most valuable team into a baseball version of Phish. The plan, as far as anyone can decode it from the PowerPoint slides filled with charts that only go up, is to split the Yankees' home games between Yankee Stadium and a series of yet-to-be-announced venues across the globe. The Stadium itself will be transformed into what Ng calls a "365-day entertainment destination," which presumably means charging $45 for craft beer while showing Yankees highlights on the jumbotron year-round. MLB's owners approved the sale unanimously, primarily because they were all too busy counting their own potential franchise valuations after this deal. When you sell the Yankees for $12.8 billion, suddenly every owner gets to add a zero to their own franchise's theoretical worth. It's the kind of math that makes billionaires giddy. Bryce Romney IV, Quantum's head of "Legacy Asset Transformation" and someone who definitely has strong opinions about yacht manufacturers, insisted this is the future of sports entertainment. "We're not moving the Yankees," he said, straightening his Hermès tie. "We're expanding their footprint to match their cultural significance." The fact that this footprint now includes charging $500 for premium tickets in cities to be named later is, presumably, just a happy coincidence. The Bronx, predictably, is taking this about as well as you'd expect. Local business owners around the stadium are furious, fans are threatening to cancel season tickets they've had since Mantle played center field, and politicians are writing strongly-worded letters that will be immediately recycled by Quantum's army of lawyers. But here's the thing that makes this whole absurd venture just crazy enough to work: The Yankees actually might be the only franchise that could pull this off. Their brand is so culturally embedded, their mystique so artificially amplified, that they might actually be more valuable as a touring act than a traditional baseball team. They're baseball's Rolling Stones – everyone wants to see them once, even if half the audience is there ironically. "The Yankees transcend baseball," Ng insisted, probably while mentally calculating the markup on limited edition market-specific merchandise. "We're not bound by convention. We're creating a new paradigm for sports entertainment." The saddest part? She's probably right. In a world where teams routinely blackmail cities for stadium funding and treat fans like walking credit cards, turning baseball's most famous franchise into a touring roadshow isn't even the most cynical thing to happen to baseball this decade. It might not even be the most cynical thing to happen this week. When asked about concerns that this plan fundamentally alters the nature of what a baseball team means to its community, Romney offered the kind of response that only someone who summers in the Hamptons could deliver with a straight face: "We're not altering tradition. We're amplifying it. The Yankees belong to the world now." The Yankees will begin their transformation in 2064, and god help us all, because if this works, every private equity firm with a Bloomberg terminal and a PowerPoint license is going to start eyeing other franchises. Baseball teams as touring acts. What's next – timeshare ballparks? Pay-per-view batting practice? Actually, don't answer that. Someone at Quantum Frontier is probably already working on the pitch deck.

Today, 02:45 AM	#108
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	How an Icelandic Arm Might Save the Cardinals' Season Sometimes the best stories in baseball come from the most unlikely places. Like, say, Reykjavik. While everyone was focused on the Cardinals' deadline dealing – the River Wang acquisition, the Saul Friedman veteran grab – the most intriguing move might have been the one that raised the most eyebrows: signing 23-year-old Virgill Haraldsson out of the Dutch leagues. Yes, you read that right. Iceland by way of the Netherlands. In an era where teams are scouring Cuba, Nigeria, and the Australian summer leagues for talent, the Cardinals found their secret weapon throwing in a country better known for soccer and speed skating. But here's the thing: it's working. Since joining St. Louis, Haraldsson has posted a 3.78 ERA across 47.2 innings, striking out 27 while walking only 9. The Nordic newcomer has shown the kind of poise you don't expect from someone whose career path reads like a geography final: Tucson to Baltimore to Iceland's European Baseball Championship squad and then to the Dutch leagues. Compare this to Portland's deadline approach – swapping minor leaguers like baseball cards and picking up Eli Russell from Miami's scrap heap – and you see why the Cardinals' front office deserves credit. While other teams were working the phones for the usual suspects, St. Louis was watching grainy footage of Dutch league games, betting that talent can come from anywhere. Haraldsson's journey – from the Federal League to the European Championships to the heat of a pennant race – is the kind of story that makes baseball special. He's not just surviving; he's thriving. His last outing against Salt Lake showcased a pitcher who belongs, European pedigree and all. The lesson here isn't just about Haraldsson. It's about imagination. While Portland played it safe and somehow stayed in the race through sheer stubbornness, the Cardinals got creative. They looked where others wouldn't, found talent where others didn't think to look. In a season where the Cardinals needed everything to break right to catch Cincinnati, maybe their best break came from a country known more for its northern lights than its baseball highlights. Baseball's next frontier might not be where we expect it to be. Now if you'll excuse me, I need to learn how to pronounce "Reykjavik" correctly before my next radio hit. Left For Dead at the All-Star Break, Portland's Making The Impossible Look Routine... Again If you'd told anyone in mid-July that we'd be talking about the Portland Stags and the playoffs in the same breath come September, they'd have assumed you were hitting the microbreweries a bit too hard. They were meandering through a mediocre season, the defending American League champions looking nothing like the squad that rode Rocky Smith's miracle complete game to the ALCS last October. Then they did something truly radical: absolutely nothing. Well, almost nothing. While contenders were wheeling and dealing, the Stags' biggest moves were shipping Layton Willingham back to St. Louis for prospects and picking up Eli Russell from Miami's bargain bin. The kind of moves that make fans check if their season tickets are refundable. And yet here we are. The Stags are 77-70, firmly in the Ladder playoff hunt, playing the kind of resilient baseball that made them last year's darlings. They're seven games over .500 since the break, climbing back into relevance with all the subtlety of a cat burglar wearing tap shoes. How? That's the beautiful part. They didn't do it with splashy acquisitions or desperate trades. They did it by trusting the same core that got them here last year. By believing that sometimes the best move is no move at all. The rotation, patched together with duct tape and dreams after Willingham's departure, has somehow held together. Emil Briones came off the IL looking like a new man. Troy Charter, called up from Triple-A Eugene with zero fanfare, has been throwing like someone who took personal offense at not being on prospect lists. Meanwhile, teams that loaded up at the deadline are watching the Stags in their rearview mirror, getting closer by the day. Sacramento's got a lock on the division at 94-53, but in the wild Ladder format, all you need is a chance. Portland proved that last year. "We've been here before," said manager Xavier Thompson, master of understatement. "These guys know what it takes. Sometimes chemistry isn't about adding ingredients – it's about letting what you have simmer." That simmer is now a full boil. The Stags aren't just hanging around; they're playing their best baseball when it matters most. The same stadium that hosted last year's ALCS might get another taste of October baseball, and they did it their way – by standing pat when everyone expected panic. It's a lesson in patience in a sport that increasingly has none. While teams like St. Louis were scouring Dutch leagues for arms (credit where it's due – that Icelandic kid can deal) and throwing prospects at every available veteran, Portland doubled down on what got them here. Is it sustainable? Who knows. But they said the same thing last year when Portland entered the Ladder playoffs as underdogs. All they did then was make history as the first wild card team to navigate four rounds. The schedule isn't kind – they've still got six against Sacramento and that crucial series with Texas looming. But the Stags have made a habit of doing things the hard way. Why stop now? Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make. Sometimes faith in what you've built pays off more than a deadline shopping spree. And sometimes, just sometimes, being left for dead at the All-Star break is exactly where you want to be. Baseball's funny that way.

Today, 02:47 AM	#109
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	September's Gauntlet: Analyzing the Final Stretch for Two Contenders With one month left in the regular season, let's break down the remaining schedules for both the Portland Stags and St. Louis Cardinals as they push for Ladder playoff positions. Portland Stags (77-70) Remaining Schedule Breakdown: - 4 vs San Diego (66-83) - 3 at Baltimore (74-75) - 2 vs New York Yankees (57-90) - 4 at Texas (80-67) - 3 vs Sacramento (94-53) Strength of Schedule Analysis: The Stags' path is fascinating. They open with four against the struggling Padres, which could be crucial for building momentum. However, the meat of their schedule is brutal: that four-game set in Texas (Sept 10-13) could effectively decide their wild card fate, as the Rangers are one of their primary competitors for a Ladder spot. The three-game series against Sacramento (Sept 14-16) looms large, but the Solons may have the division wrapped up by then and could be resting players. The schedule makers did Portland a favor by giving them the Yankees in the middle of this stretch – those two games against the AL East cellar-dwellers could be vital breathing room. St. Louis Cardinals (84-63) Remaining Schedule Breakdown: - 2 at Salt Lake (66-81) - 3 vs Atlanta (62-85) - 4 vs Oklahoma City (67-80) - 4 vs New Orleans (61-86) - 3 at Cincinnati (97-52) Strength of Schedule Analysis: If you're the Cardinals, you're looking at this September schedule and trying not to smile too obviously. Outside of those three games against the division-leading Reds, St. Louis faces nobody with a winning record. The four-game sets against both Oklahoma City and New Orleans should be particularly advantageous – those teams are a combined 56 games under .500. Playoff Implications: The Cardinals, currently holding the first NL wild card spot (+3 over Nashville), have a clear path to securing their Ladder position. Their schedule difficulty is bottom-tier until that final Cincinnati series, which might not even matter for seeding purposes. Portland has the tougher road, but they've been here before. Last year's historic run through the Ladder playoffs started from an even more precarious position. The key stretch will be September 10-16: seven games against Texas and Sacramento that could either cement their comeback story or end it. Key Factors: - Portland's head-to-head with Texas could swing the AL wild card race by 4+ games - St. Louis has 13 straight games against sub-.500 teams before facing Cincinnati - Both teams finish their scheduled games by September 16th, leaving potential makeup dates or tiebreakers Projected Finish: - Cardinals: 92-70 (8-7 in remaining games) - Stags: 84-78 (7-8 in remaining games) The Cardinals should cruise into the Ladder playoffs barring a complete collapse. For Portland, it likely comes down to that Texas series – win 3 of 4 there, and the miracle run continues. Split or lose it, and last year's ALCS appearance might be their last taste of October for a while. Remember though: We said the same thing about Portland's chances last September, and all they did was make history.

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