NFL Week 16

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Also, tonight in my fantasy football championship:

Team A (+11 right now):
Jay Cutler
Martellus Bennet

Team B (-11):
Nick Foles
Brandon Marshall

I have a 24 point lead, but my opponent has Colin Kaepernick going tomorrow night. I do not feel good about this.

[RedKingGold]

If the Eagles hold on, and the 49ers lose tomorrow, the NFL will have three "win-and-in" games next week: PHI-DAL, SFO-ARZ, GBY-CHI.

[Lathum]

awesome to see Chris Polk get some PT.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Radii

What a drive!!!!!! I'm pretty sure that's a catch at least, Cam woke up at the right time after overthrowing everyone fro an entire half.

Yeah, deciding to drop his target about 2 feet on every throw really paid off there at the end.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Eli's not in the same universe as the other guys posted, statistically. I'd be interested to see statistical comps in these categories. What QBs are similar to him, even historically? Eli's a really hard guy to slot when it comes to legacy, because he DOES have those rings.

It's really hard because of how many times the NFL has changed. Kenny Stabler led Oakland to a 10-3 record (they played another game he didn't start) with an INT rate of over 8.

Pro Football Reference said that after 9 years Eli for his career is similar to these players:

David Garrard, Jake Delhomme, Carson Palmer, Big Ben, Chad Pennington.

They say this similarity score tries to take the quality and shape of a career into account. I think in our time, Big Ben is probably the closest comparison, but he's not close to the turnover machine Eli has been. I mean, on a historical scale, there just aren't a lot of comparisons. It does make him brutally difficult to rate. Take away the catch off the side of the head and Romo completing a pass to eliminate the Super Bowls and the SB MVP's? Then what do you have? The completion percentage and turnover rate are incredibly poor.

I think he has a starting job, but I don't think he has one in NY.

It's funny how the Super Bowl changes things. Flacco has been an average to below average QB for years. Rahim Moore takes a garbage angle and the Ravens win the Super Bowl and he's now the highest paid QB in the game. In baseball we seem to be able to seperate "he had a good playoff run and a couple of good seasons, but he's not a great player" The QB in football doesn't go through that. Win a Super Bowl and all of your sins are forgiven.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by tucker rocky

Marvin Lewis comes to mind, but the Bengals have stuck with him.
Lions should do the same with Schwartz.

GM for the Lions(whomever it is), needs to do a better job of drafting, and bringing in better players out of FA.

Hard to do when 90% of your salary cap is tied up in three players

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I think he has a starting job, but I don't think he has one in NY.

Fair enough.

I mean you look at his completion percentage among active players and he's below Tavaris Jackson and in the neighborhood of Chad Henne.

Just saying.

[jbergey22]

If you guys are going to judge a quarterback on one stat please use yards per attempt rather than completion percentage unless of course we want to consider Chad Pennington the best QB in NFL history.

Eli has a real bad line this year. Lets try to not overreact. That guard-center-guard combo he is currently playing behind is brutal.

Eli is safely on that list of QBs you can win a Super Bowl with which isnt a huge list.

[weegeebored]

I can't recall the last time I turned off the tv when the Bears are on but they are laughable. Simply pathetic. The NFL gets what they want -- Bears v Packers for the division. My money is on the Packers. I don't need to say anything more about Trestman.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

I can't recall the last time I turned off the tv when the Bears are on but they are laughable. Simply pathetic. The NFL gets what they want -- Bears v Packers for the division. My money is on the Packers. I don't need to say anything more about Trestman.

Bears season comes down to whoever made the decision to bench McCown. Not sure who it was in the end but it's on whoever made that decision.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

If you guys are going to judge a quarterback on one stat please use yards per attempt rather than completion percentage unless of course we want to consider Chad Pennington the best QB in NFL history.

Eli has a real bad line this year. Lets try to not overreact. That guard-center-guard combo he is currently playing behind is brutal.

Eli is safely on that list of QBs you can win a Super Bowl with which isnt a huge list.

Yards per pass attempt? you mean the one he's ranked 18th this year and 14th among active QB's? That statistic.He's finished 10th, 4th, 8th and 9th in that stat in his career. The other 5 years have been below the top 1/3 of all QB's.

I'm not overreacting, he's been incredibly poor in his career when it comes to accuracy and turnover rate. The accuracy impacts that yards per attempt total by the way. If we go yards per completion, Eli jumps into the top ten.

He's an enigma. How he gets remembered now is what happens over the next few years. He's had as many "blah" seasons as pro bowl ones. Elway and P Manning got better over time. Their best seasons happened at age 37. Eli does that, we'll all forget this conversation. My guess is he is what he is. A decent QB, not a great one. Good in his best years, below average in his worst years. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

[EagleFan]

4 months ago I would have thought a winning season was a pipe dream.

[tucker rocky]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

4 months ago I would have thought a winning season was a pipe dream.

Just think, Chip Kelly originally turned down the Eagles to stay at Oregon.
Gus Bradley, DC of Seattle was at the top of the Eagles list, after Kelly.

Kelly does an about face, agrees to become the Eagles HC, and Bradley is chosen as the Jaguars new HC.

You have to wonder what if Kelly stayed at Oregon, and Bradley was chosen as the HC for the Eagles.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Also, tonight in my fantasy football championship:

Team A (+11 right now):
Jay Cutler
Martellus Bennet

Team B (-11):
Nick Foles
Brandon Marshall

According to live stat tracking:

Jay Cutler 10 pts
Nick Foles 20 pts

Martellus Bennett 13 pts
Brandon Marshall 13 pts

Team A: 130
Team B: 129

Let's hope stat corrections don't screw me over.

[Carman Bulldog]

Eli is safely on that list of QBs you can win a Super Bowl with which isnt a huge list.

Does this list also include Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer? What about Big Ben and Flacco? How close were Jake Delhomme, Matt Hasselbeck, Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman to joining this list?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

Does this list also include Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer? What about Big Ben and Flacco? How close were Jake Delhomme, Matt Hasselbeck, Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman to joining this list?

Sure.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Yards per pass attempt? you mean the one he's ranked 18th this year and 14th among active QB's? That statistic.He's finished 10th, 4th, 8th and 9th in that stat in his career. The other 5 years have been below the top 1/3 of all QB's.

I'm not overreacting, he's been incredibly poor in his career when it comes to accuracy and turnover rate. The accuracy impacts that yards per attempt total by the way. If we go yards per completion, Eli jumps into the top ten.

He's an enigma. How he gets remembered now is what happens over the next few years. He's had as many "blah" seasons as pro bowl ones. Elway and P Manning got better over time. Their best seasons happened at age 37. Eli does that, we'll all forget this conversation. My guess is he is what he is. A decent QB, not a great one. Good in his best years, below average in his worst years. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

Has very little to do with Eli. I just think completion percentage is a lousy way to judge a QB. Understand?

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I thought Marvin would get fired, bur I wasn't sure he deserved it. I guess we didn't get the 100% consensus. I think the Lions should have won that division with ease this year. I don't think it was about the players he had at his disposal.

Yeah, this. Very talented team, completely undisciplined and poorly coached from what I can see. Should have walked a terrible division this year.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Has very little to do with Eli. I just think completion percentage is a lousy way to judge a QB. Understand?

I think just ANY statistic is a lousy way to judge any player in any sport. But if you ask me to rank importance, I would place a premium on the statistic.

I've heard people give it a bad rap before. Kind of reminds me of how many people hate the "quality start" statistic in baseball. It can be a 4.5 ERA man, it's a horrible way to judge a pitcher, right? Umm, no, 6 innings, 3 runs gives your team a good chance to win in this day and age. And most "quality starts" are actually far better than the bottom of the scale.

In this day and age, if you can't hit on 60% of your passes, you will have a tough time winning consistently. The obvious exception over the last two years is Andrew Luck. Thing is, his splits are wild right now. 45% one game, 51% then next and then 70% like today. He was also over 60% until Reggie Wayne went down. He's also a kid who is inconsistent. He'll be over that rate soon.

Accuracy is huge in this league right now. It's not the only way I judge anyone, but that stat is near the top of the list when evaluating any QB.

OK, back to FOF where I can evaluate QB's Peyton just retired

[ColtCrazy]

I'm up 11 now going into tomorrow. I have Kaepernick; he has Davis/Crabtree. Really hoping Kaepernick offsets them and throws some TDs to people not named Davis or Crabtree.

Doesn't help the guy in the final is a punk that's already texting me classics like "it's on bitch" and stuff like that. smh

[Solecismic]

Seems like a good possibility that Arizona becomes the third 11-5 team to miss the playoffs under the modern playoff format.

So we'll get some screaming about expanding the playoffs. Which might, with possible outcomes on Sunday, get 8-8 Pittsburgh in on the other side. I really don't like the idea of 8-8 wild-card teams.

An odd fact: Cleveland will have 4 or 5 wins for the sixth consecutive season. This is unprecedented during the 16-game schedule era. No team has ever had that small a range of records over a six-year period.

Two teams (Detroit, 1973-78; Dallas, 1976-81) have had that small a range of wins over a six-year period, but both streaks began in the 14-game era and ended in the 16-game era.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by ColtCrazy

I'm up 11 now going into tomorrow. I have Kaepernick; he has Davis/Crabtree. Really hoping Kaepernick offsets them and throws some TDs to people not named Davis or Crabtree.

Doesn't help the guy in the final is a punk that's already texting me classics like "it's on bitch" and stuff like that. smh

I think your only hope is Boldin. Kaepernick's TD distribution this year:

Vernon Davis 12
Anquan Boldin 5
Michael Crabtree 1

[Danny]

Won my championship in one money league today. Not bad. 5 money leagues the last 3 years and 3 championships.

[RainMaker]

I won mine tonight. First win in many years. I make the playoffs all the time, guess I was due.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Accuracy is huge in this league right now. It's not the only way I judge anyone, but that stat is near the top of the list when evaluating any QB.

Yards per attempt has accuracy factored into it but it also rewards QBs that actually take some chances down the field.

As I mentioned Chad Pennington is the #1 accuracy QB of all time. I dont think too many consider him anything more than an average NFL quarterback.

Accuracy isnt that important if you are accurate throwing 2 yard passes.

Of course each team has their own gameplans and expectations out of the QB position. Id say yards per attempt/int %/sack % would be what I consider the most important characteristics in a winning QB.

[Julio Riddols]

Originally Posted by rowech

Bears season comes down to whoever made the decision to bench McCown. Not sure who it was in the end but it's on whoever made that decision.

That and a TERRIBLE defense.

[Julio Riddols]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Seems like a good possibility that Arizona becomes the third 11-5 team to miss the playoffs under the modern playoff format.

So we'll get some screaming about expanding the playoffs. Which might, with possible outcomes on Sunday, get 8-8 Pittsburgh in on the other side. I really don't like the idea of 8-8 wild-card teams.
.

I'd love to see them just take the top 12 teams, period. Top 4 division winners league wide get byes, last 8 teams seeded by win% + opp win%.

Arizona really doesn't deserve to miss the playoffs. They're probably one of the most dangerous teams out there and it would be pretty shitty to see Pittsburgh make it while the Cards sit at home.

[Comey]

My fantasy team completely imploded in the playoffs. Last week, it was the madness of choices (I have AP and Reggie Bush, Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan). We still almost came back, due to Justin Tucker.

This week, every single player, save for Demaryius Thomas, way underperformed. Sigh...regular season champs, and very little to show for it.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by tucker rocky

Marvin Lewis comes to mind, but the Bengals have stuck with him.
Lions should do the same with Schwartz.

GM for the Lions(whomever it is), needs to do a better job of drafting, and bringing in better players out of FA.

The big positive for Marvin is that he's basically the GM as well as the coach. I don't think Marvin's coaching is that great, but firing him would mean a return to the 90s org chart.

[MizzouRah]

One FF league I drafted my own players.. came in next to last.

The other FF league, the CPU drafted my players and Vernon Davis needs 3 points and I win the whole thing.

I guess I need to listen to the CPU from here on out.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Comey

My fantasy team completely imploded in the playoffs. Last week, it was the madness of choices (I have AP and Reggie Bush, Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan). We still almost came back, due to Justin Tucker.

This week, every single player, save for Demaryius Thomas, way underperformed. Sigh...regular season champs, and very little to show for it.

For the fourth time in eight seasons I will have lead my league in record and points during the regular season only to lose in the title game.

[lungs]

In one of my leagues we had a debate on draft day about how many teams should make the playoffs. I argued for 4 out of 10 against 6 out of 10 to not reward mediocre regular season teams. 6 out of 10 ended up winning out.

The 5th seed and 6th seeds(me) made the championship

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Seems like a good possibility that Arizona becomes the third 11-5 team to miss the playoffs under the modern playoff format.

So we'll get some screaming about expanding the playoffs.

I hate all this screaming, it's just a manufactured controversy. Win your division and you are in.

If the NFL actually wants to fix this, they'll go to two 8-team divisions in each conference, each playing 14 home-and-home games in the division, and 2 games outside it (rotating other division or other conference, I don't care). With TV, who cares about how often some other team visits your stadium? But now you can actually compare most teams within a division and get a decent wildcard spectrum, and the wildcards allow some team who had a harder 2 outside games to make the playoffs anyway.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Yards per attempt has accuracy factored into it but it also rewards QBs that actually take some chances down the field.

As I mentioned Chad Pennington is the #1 accuracy QB of all time. I dont think too many consider him anything more than an average NFL quarterback.

Accuracy isnt that important if you are accurate throwing 2 yard passes.

Of course each team has their own gameplans and expectations out of the QB position. Id say yards per attempt/int %/sack % would be what I consider the most important characteristics in a winning QB.

Ok, i get it, Chad Pennington.

Quick question, anyone want to guess what his yppa was for his career? 7.2. Eli sits at 7.1 right now.

As I said, I look at all stats, not just one. It is also i mportant. To look at the style of team, type of offense ran, etc.

[cubboyroy1826]

Won my league last night which is the first time I have one my own league. I think we are 7 or 8 years in and I have made the playoff most of the years but could not come up with a win.

[SteveMax58]

I'm a Giants fan but I wouldn't really dispute that Eli is "just" an above average NFL QB who has made plays in key situations over his career. I'm not sure that makes him Peyton or Brady, but it certainly puts him above Carson Palmer & David Garrard to me.

Of course, how did he get into those tight games that needed clutch play with 30 seconds left? Not always his fault, but sometimes they were. Thats why I (and I hate to say this) have to say that Romo is at least on par with Eli, if not a better QB. Scoring 28 points in the 1st 3 qtrs, then having your terrible defense allow the other team to come back, which you then proceed to throw a "game-killing" INT is still not a bad "net showing". Naturally, you'd prefer your QB make the plays at the end of the game, but if Dallas has a somewhat average defense, that game never needs QB heroics and thus, no INT.

Did Eli get his 2 championships while getting help from a very good defense (at least during the playoff stretch)? Of course he did. But thats true of Brady, Peyton, Rodgers, Montana, Bradshaw, Ben, and Brees and their respective defenses in their SB years.

I guess my only point in this long-winded post here is to highlight two things:
1. Eli is a very good(not great) QB. When surrounded by receivers that he is on the same page with, he can execute well. When that isn't the case, Eli makes "bad" decisions such as relying on his receivers to always hit their routes regardless of the coverage scheme (something I dont think his brother does...he simply finds a better checkdown option). To that end, I actually question if Eli even really looks at the coverage beyond pre-snap reads. And perhaps the reason he doesn't is actually physical, such as eyesight or something, as his inaccuracy at times would also lead me to think. Perhaps his eyes cant focus fast enough so has to rely on his intuition...IDK, I just know that I don't think he "doesn't know better" and I have a hard time believing he doesn't put in the time during the week.
2. Many "great" QBs wouldn't be so great if not for having a defense that can shut down the opposition, thus enabling them to be on the stage. If Montana's 49ers were a bottom 1/3 defense, he can't win multiple SBs. Same with Bradshaw, Aikman, Brady, and Big Ben. So Eli isn't unique in that sense. By contrast Peyton, Brees, and Marino all had typically non-great defensive units and thus their more limited SB opportunities (though certainly Brees & Peyton have time left for that).

[BillJasper]

I also think Eli needs a better running game to be effective.

[Ronnie Dobbs3]

Von Miller torn ACL

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs3

Von Miller torn ACL

Ouch.

On the other side, the Chiefs have said that Justin Houston will be healthy and ready to go for the playoffs. He'll be a bit rusty, but definitely a major upgrade over Zombo and will take some of the pressure off Hali to do everything. Despite yesterday's rough game, I think the Chiefs can make some noise in the playoffs.

[Radii]

AFC's 6 seed scenarios:

[Solecismic]

Using my quarterback metric, which is adjusted for league averages each season and correlations of statistics to wins, Chad Pennington is a great quarterback with a career shortened by injury.

Where he's unusually low is yards per catch. We're talking Sam Bradford low - below 11 yards per catch. It's very hard to find true comparables for Pennington. Maybe he was the ultimate game manager, and game managers don't win games by themselves.

I look at Eli Manning, and he's well down the list (going into this season - he'll undoubtedly drop) in the metric - 126th of 316 who have a qualifying season. What stands out in his range of the list is his record (86-59 - now 92-68) and the MVPs. It's hard to compare raw statistics from different eras, but guys who have his general numbers profile include Randall Cunningham (without the feet), Ron Jaworski, or, on generally losing teams, Vinny Testaverde.

The Hall rewards longevity, which Manning is headed toward, and the high-profile awards and leading winning teams.

This would be the top ten in my metric, 100 or more starts post-1973, all-time:

Young, P.Manning, Warner, Montana, Rivers, Brady, K.Anderson, Brees, Roethlisberger, Stabler.

With the exception of Anderson, these guys all had an extremely high winning percentage. Anderson was a high risk/reward guy who played on more average teams - though not as extreme a case as Dan Fouts, who is 11th on this list.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

I also think Eli needs a better running game to be effective.

That would help if they could get to even just slightly below average.

But there's a difference between a a minimal running game (like Brady or Peyton has) and an absolutely terrible running game like Eli has. If it isn't the HBs all being on IR, its the terrible o-line that can't push a wagon downhill.

David Wilson was really supposed to be a dynamic player that would also be part of the passing game. Its hard to call him a bust (yet) but if he can't stay on the field (whether its fumbles or injuries) then we have to acknowledge he is a part time HB and won't "carry the load" so to speak (I never saw him that way, but the depth we had behind him would seem to suggest the Giants thought of him that way).

Giants got all kinds of cap room to make this offseason. Much as I love him, Tuck has to go, probably Nicks as well, and we have to draft o-line and a couple of HBs.

I've been critical of Coughlin in the past but I'm not sure if the talent on that roster is even 8 win talent. Until I am, I'd leave him in place unless we're talking about getting rid of Eli (hard to imagine we wouldn't give him 1 more season).

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

While I'm assuming the Chiefs suck this week, I am getting a chuckle out of all the praise Tony Romo and Dallas are getting for beating Washington by one point. Last week, Washington sucked. This week, beating them by one point gets you 10 minutes on SportsCenter.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

While I'm assuming the Chiefs suck this week, I am getting a chuckle out of all the praise Tony Romo and Dallas are getting for beating Washington by one point. Last week, Washington sucked. This week, beating them by one point gets you 10 minutes on SportsCenter.

Yeah its funny how that works. And if they lost to Washington by 1 point, Romo would once again not know how to win in December. But as of right now, he knows how to.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Ouch.

On the other side, the Chiefs have said that Justin Houston will be healthy and ready to go for the playoffs. He'll be a bit rusty, but definitely a major upgrade over Zombo and will take some of the pressure off Hali to do everything. Despite yesterday's rough game, I think the Chiefs can make some noise in the playoffs.

Ya know, I'm pessimistic right now about Denver's playoff chances. With that said, the reaction I had to this was "so what"

He's been a decent player this year, but far from great. 5 sacks in 9 games. He hasn't been the force he was last year. At this point, I don't think he's the difference between Super Bowl or out in round 1.

With Denver, it will all be about the offense. If Manning can't get 30 or more, Denver will not advance. Really that simple.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Using my quarterback metric, which is adjusted for league averages each season and correlations of statistics to wins, Chad Pennington is a great quarterback with a career shortened by injury.

Where he's unusually low is yards per catch. We're talking Sam Bradford low - below 11 yards per catch. It's very hard to find true comparables for Pennington. Maybe he was the ultimate game manager, and game managers don't win games by themselves.

I look at Eli Manning, and he's well down the list (going into this season - he'll undoubtedly drop) in the metric - 126th of 316 who have a qualifying season. What stands out in his range of the list is his record (86-59 - now 92-68) and the MVPs. It's hard to compare raw statistics from different eras, but guys who have his general numbers profile include Randall Cunningham (without the feet), Ron Jaworski, or, on generally losing teams, Vinny Testaverde.

The Hall rewards longevity, which Manning is headed toward, and the high-profile awards and leading winning teams.

This would be the top ten in my metric, 100 or more starts post-1973, all-time:

Young, P.Manning, Warner, Montana, Rivers, Brady, K.Anderson, Brees, Roethlisberger, Stabler.

With the exception of Anderson, these guys all had an extremely high winning percentage. Anderson was a high risk/reward guy who played on more average teams - though not as extreme a case as Dan Fouts, who is 11th on this list.

I can't think of a more difficult sport to rate players along history Jim. Love your ranking (Ken Anderson was really, really good)

My homer glasses scream what about Elway, but the reality is he will never do good on any statistical rating system. There is such a monumental split between Reeves/Elway (9 seasons) and anyone other than Reeves/Elway split. (7 seasons) (for those who know history and say that Reeves was Elways coach for 10 years, that's correct, but in 1987 he turned the offense over to Shanahan for a year)

For example, yards per pass attempt. With Reeves as coach, Elway finished top 10 2 times. With Shanny in '87 and the other 6 years, Elway finished in the top ten 7 times.

Just a monumental waste. Ugh. Still makes me angry.

[Warhammer]

Anderson and Stabler are two of the most criminally underrated players in NFL history.

[Solecismic]

What about Romo? The guy has never had anything but solidly above-average seasons. He'll be in this top ten next year, as he's now over 100 starts. But 64-46 isn't a great record. He was undrafted. I think of him as Kurt Warner without quite the extreme high of his first three years in the NFL or the ring.

The 1-3 in the playoffs must kill perceptions - especially since his one bad playoff game was the blowout against Minnesota right after his only playoff win. Dallas fans are used to post-season success, and Romo doesn't have any.

[Ronnie Dobbs3]

Romo out the rest of the year??? https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/sta...30451582656512

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs3

Romo out the rest of the year??? Twitter / AdamSchefter: Cowboys QB Tony Romo has been ...

Tebow time!