Predicting the Summer Olympics (sort of)

[whomario]

I love a good cinematographer pic.twitter.com/DvPRBOlRNA

— Rafa Sales Ross (@rafiews) August 3, 2024

The cycling RR definitely made the most of the location overall. Good hard course, really nice close quarter streets used in Paris and then the gran finale at the Eiffel tower.

[SecretAgentMan]

I didn't fully complete my Athletics projections, but here's some data I was working on for that. Here's a look at the rankings, by country, in ONLY the sprints. (100, 200, 400, 100/110 High Hurdles, 400 hurdles, and the 4x100 and 4x400 relays. There are 15 total including the mixed 4x400 relay). The scale here is 100 being a near-perfect "max" score. Here's how the countries break down.


​
Let's break them down further into a tier list of sorts. (Reminder, this is ONLY for the sprint races. Distance events and field events are their own deals)

Tier 1 (The Top Guns): These countries should have finalists in basically every sprint race, and if not, it's a sign that something has gone wrong.
-USA, Jamaica

Tier 2 (Solid Programs): These countries will be consistently represented in sprint finals and will probably see some occasional medals, especially in relays. Could also have a star here or there make some waves
-Great Britain, Italy, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Netherlands

Tier 3 (Host Countries): They've had a lot of qualifiers lately, which makes them look like Tier 2 countries. But it's probably just hosting and they are more likely Tier 4 countries. So they get their own Tier all to themselves.
-France, Japan

Tier 4 (Background Players): You'll see their flag. You might even see a star athlete from their country win a medal. But they aren't going to be serious contenders across all of the sprint events, that's for sure.
-Nigeria, South Africa, Switzerland, Poland, Belgium, Australia, Bahamas, China, Trinidad and Tobago

Tier 5 (Spot the Star): This is probably a sign that the country has had a single star sprinter or two in the last 10 years. Who knows, they might even medal again here. Or you might not even hear from them in this meet. Who knows?
-Spain, Czech Republic, Botswana, Ukraine, Ivory Coast, Dominican Republic, Ireland, Colombia, Norway, Portugal, Cuba, Barbados

Tier 6 (Potential Breakthroughs):
-Everybody else. If you see a country medal in Sprints and they haven't yet been listed (it's already happened on Day 2 of the track meet), they are a breakthrough nation who has elevated themselves to Tier 5 for the next go-around.
​

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Wow. Femke Bol. Phenomenal. The whole team ran well, but still, wow. I was jumping in front of my tv.

I wanted the US to win, but I have to recognize how phenomenal that run from Bol was- absolutely incredible!

[JPhillips]

I expect the marathon course is going to be spectacular.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Why on God's green earth would anyone with even half a brain allow a major investment to go take part in something that's basically a joke in its very existence?

That's one of the most asinine things I've ever heard in sports ... and that's a tough bar to clear.

There is a shitton of money globally left on the table for the NFL. They have to see the potential of global leagues ala soccer.

[JPhillips]

double dola

Losing the pole vault because your giant dick gets caught on the bar is kind of like winning.

[Ghost Econ]

They were talking to Noah Lyle's mom in the stands and whoever was next to her had a 1994 USA World Cup Clapper.

My wife was mortified someone had that and that I immediately knew what it was and was excited about it.

World Cup USA 94 Vintage Clapper Clap Clap McDonald's Happy Meal 1994 | eBay

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

There is a shitton of money globally left on the table for the NFL. They have to see the potential of global leagues ala soccer.

So how does pretend football help with that exactly?

This is even dumber than the stupid 3-on-3 basketball shit, which is breakdancing level of fuckwittery as it is.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Why on God's green earth would anyone with even half a brain allow a major investment to go take part in something that's basically a joke in its very existence?

That's one of the most asinine things I've ever heard in sports ... and that's a tough bar to clear.

Gotta agree with this. NFL owners don't even want their players to play in the Pro Bowl flag football game. To be fair, I don't think NBA teams are too enthused about their players playing in the Olympics either but that ship has already sailed. My guess is in Olympic flag football you get something similar to what you are getting with three on three basketball now. Football players you have barely heard of playing against... umm...against who exactly? Plus, do Americans actually like watching flag football and would watch that more than they do three on three basketball?

I know that the NFL owners look at the globalization of basketball and think they can do the same thing. What I don't understand is how they are going to do that with a game that is still almost exclusively played in the US or almost exclusively by Americans. Basketball was played worldwide before the Dream Team made their first appearance in Barcelona in 1992. The Italian pro league started in 1920. The French League started in 1921. Basketball has been an Olympic sport at every Olympics since 1948. Foreign players were already playing in the NBA. The Dream Team energized people who actually liked to play and watch basketball in places where they did both and made the sport more popular.

[bronconick]

Oh, I know the NFL owners will never let the players play in an Olympics. All you need to see is what a fight the NHL and the players have had on and off over the last 20 years. And that's with a dozen countries whose elite players would want to go and many that grew up playing for their home country before they were even drafted.

[RainMaker]

All I can think of is Robert Edwards when I hear the idea of having NFL players in that event.

[whomario]

3000 steeple chase races are such a fantastic spectacle

[JPhillips]

Scott Scheffler for the gold with a course record last round!

USA USA USA

[Ksyrup]

Djokovic played the best tennis of his last 2-3 years today. And I can't believe NBC stuck it on Peacock while showing shit like canoe slalom on cable. I'm glad I pay for Peacock but everyone deserved to watch that live.

[JPhillips]

The women's road race in cycling was great. The American played it perfectly and when she made her break at 3 KM nobody could keep up with her.

USA USA USA

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The women's road race in cycling was great. The American played it perfectly and when she made her break at 3 KM nobody could keep up with her.

USA USA USA

The break she made was so well done. Loved watching that!

[SecretAgentMan]

The final swimming event in the pool is done, so it's time to look back and see what could be learned. Here's what I was watching for beforehand:



And here's what ACTUALLY happened:




I included all four projections from before, as well as Sports Illustrated Writer Pat Forde's predictions.

Some thoughts to share:

-Clearly, the USA was best with Australia in 2nd. I would personally call China 3rd best because they had 12 medals, but it is true that they only had 2 golds. I had wondered aloud if Canada would be 4th. They have the 4th most gold medals (behind France) and 4th most total medals (slightly ahead of France), so it's pretty clear that the projections there were on track.

-France's home pool advantage was legitimately a big one. Anyone who has watched the coverage in the US has probably heard the commentators talk about how it's one of the loudest competitions they've ever heard. Leon Marchand went nuts, and won beaucoup gold medals, but he wasn't the only medalist. So clearly, France benefitted from hosting.

-Ireland, Hong Kong, and Romania all won multiple medals. I suggested that my program was probably going to miss those type of results, and it definitely did. Recent results projections, though, showed that these countries were likely to have success, even though they haven't won medals historically. Clearly, any sort of legitimate projections need to incorporate some of the "recent results" projections.

So, what did I learn about my game?

Well, I learned that my GFG A projection (the one where I determine the "best" athletes in each event without running a sim) is actually pretty solid. There's a couple of major flaws that can be seen (Italy and Japan are way too high, and Canada is way too low), but that's clearly related to the algorithm for how I determine the country rankings. I probably have weighted long-term historical results too highly and I may need to adjust how much I look at short-term recent results. My GFG B projection (where I actually run the sim of the event), which I already suggested was not going to be great, was indeed not great. That will require some work, but I already knew that. My program, in other words, is good at making the athletes in a way that reflects reality (except for breakthrough athletes), but is not so great at simulating the actual results yet.

Speaking of short-term results, you definitely cannot ignore those. In 31 of the 35 events, the athlete/team with the highest time THIS YEAR won a medal, and 20 of those athletes/teams won gold medals. (I will show the data table for this in another post)

Anyways, still plenty more sports to go, ,but I figured I would share what I was learning as we go along here!

[SecretAgentMan]

Here's a little bit more swimming data. Let me explain what you're looking at.

For each of the individual events, I took down the Top 5 times from this year. For the team events, I generally calculated 4.

If an athlete in the Top 5 won a medal, I highlighted them. Green highlight means that they matched their projection, and yellow means that they won a medal, but not the one they were projected for.

If you see a red highlight next to an event, it means that an athlete outside of the Top 5 times won a medal in that event. (Occasionally, this just means the athlete hasn't done that event often. Leon Marchand messed up these projections multiple times for that exact reason.) Two red marks means two athletes, and three marks (it happened once) means that all three medalists came from outside the Top 5 times.

[Ghost Econ]

That 100 finish was fucking insane

[JonInMiddleGA]

I've checked on this thread a few times because it's certainly an interesting project you've undertaken.

Not sure how wide you've actually gone with the various sports but it'd be interesting to see how the correlation to recent performances varies from one sport/discipline to the next.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

That 100 finish was fucking insane

I was shocked. I didn't see Lyles close and thought Thompson had edged Kerley.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

That 100 finish was fucking insane

0.005 seconds between gold and silver

[RainMaker]

One of the coolest finishes I've ever seen.

[JPhillips]

I thought Lyles had a bad start and had no chance.

[Ksyrup]

Yep. I thought he was excited to come from behind to get the bronze at best.

[Ghost Econ]

I don't feel like you can call yourself the fastest man alive when the fastest man ever is still alive.

[Atocep]

I think the announcers were just as surprised. They had announced Lyles as the winner, he started celebrating, it took about a minute for the announcers to acknowledge why he was celebrating.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I've checked on this thread a few times because it's certainly an interesting project you've undertaken.

Not sure how wide you've actually gone with the various sports but it'd be interesting to see how the correlation to recent performances varies from one sport/discipline to the next.

I haven't gone terribly wide with projections (just swimming/track and field/gymnastics for now), but it would actually be a useful thing to find out how the recent performances went across sports, so if I do gather some of that data this week, I'll keep posting here.

[Ghost Econ]

Poor Suni. My daughter told me nothing hurt more in gymnastics than splitting the beam. Even falling from the bars on your stomach hurts less.

Edit, and Simone fell. The beam is a cruel mistress.

[whomario]

Likely unfair given they reached the Semis,but somehhow Lithuania managed to field the only 3 (4) Lithuanians who can't shoot the ball. That Van der Horst guy on the Netherlands is a fun watch

Volleyball is one of those sports where i feel it deserves a lot more attention.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

I don't feel like you can call yourself the fastest man alive when the fastest man ever is still alive.

I feel like if asked today even 37 year old Usain Bolt would acknowledge that Noah Lyles has more of a claim to call himself the fastest man alive than Bolt does.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by whomario

Volleyball is one of those sports where i feel it deserves a lot more attention.

I don't know if this is a good or bad thing or what is says about the attention being given to the sport but I assure you at least in the States, volleyball players are getting a significant amount of attention.

[whomario]

Germany 3v3 women winning with a Fadeaway with Dirk watching was a cool moment

And the german public broadcaster cut away with 30 seconds left apparently ... Yeah, there's a schedule and news are at a certain time but come on ... With commercials in between they essentially cut to commercial (Watching via another channels streaming service myself luckily)

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I don't know if this is a good or bad thing or what is says about the attention being given to the sport but I assure you at least in the States, volleyball players are getting a significant amount of attention.

Volleyball vs beach volleyball. I feel like the former deserves more, the latter gets more.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Volleyball vs beach volleyball. I feel like the former deserves more, the latter gets more.

Without question, I can't even play devil's advocate on that one.

Is NBC even showing any of the women's indoor matches in prime time? Given some of the attendance numbers I have seen in the college game, I would be shocked if they did not show the U.S. matches.

[Ksyrup]

I've definitely seen a bunch of beach volleyball coverage, and I'm pretty sure that after the US match ended late yesterday, they then switched to the remainder of the indoor match.

The biggest amount of coverage I've seen for this Olympics for any kind of volleyball is the right-wing fringe complaining about the teams that choose not to wear bikinis.

[MIJB#19]

About the volleyball vs beach volleyball, for the tv channels, the latter is just more appealing in terms of duration of matches. A competitive volleyball match lasts for at minimum 1 1/2 hours, whilst a competitive beach volleyball match will be over within an hour. Additionally, in the tournament formats at Paris 2024, there are more than twice the number of matches scheduled in beach volleyball, with 4 times the number of competing teams.

[miami_fan]

Sifran Hassan is running in the 5000m, 10,000 AND the Marathon?!

[whomario]

Man, Duplantis dominance is very Bolt-like. You just know he's winning this easily.

Seems like a DQ in the 5000m for Kipyegon, guess for that tussle at around a few laps to go with things kicking into high gear.


Re: Volleyball (and i mean the regular variant here mostly)

Was more speaking generally, just think it's an utterly impressively athletic and exciting sport that is getting very little attention at least over here between olympics, a bit more during (but really only when german teams play).

I think it's a big(ish) college sport in the US? Are there pro leagues?

[RainMaker]

I don't know much about pro leagues but I know college volleyball has seen huge growth. It was doing impressive numbers on Big 10 network last year.

[whomario]

World record Duplantis

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by whomario

Man, Duplantis dominance is very Bolt-like. You just know he's winning this easily.

Extraordinary. Mondo Duplantis breaks the world record. Amazing.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Sifran Hassan is running in the 5000m, 10,000 AND the Marathon?!

She took the 1500m off her schedule, that would have been overkill. She qualified for all four events, but the marathon is her big goal.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't know much about pro leagues but I know college volleyball has seen huge growth. It was doing impressive numbers on Big 10 network last year.

Yes, it is following the growth of college softball. WCWS averaged 1.1M viewers, only about 500K less than the CWS. The WCWS finals averaged 2M viewers. I think I saw that the volleyball finals last year did about 1.75M, which is pretty damn good considering you've got NFL and college bowl games going on.

[miami_fan]

For the old people who stopped watching the pole vault after the great (only talking about the pole vaulting) Sergei Bubka, his last record was 6.14 m (20 ft 1 1⁄2 in) in 1994.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Yes, it is following the growth of college softball. WCWS averaged 1.1M viewers, only about 500K less than the CWS. The WCWS finals averaged 2M viewers. I think I saw that the volleyball finals last year did about 1.75M, which is pretty damn good considering you've got NFL and college bowl games going on.

is there a male pro volleyball leagues in the USA? I tried searching, but only found a couple of upstart women's leagues.

[MIJB#19]

That was clutch! I've got to admit the 3x3 basketball is enjoyable to watch. A lot more than your average 'plain' basketball match.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

For the old people who stopped watching the pole vault after the great (only talking about the pole vaulting) Sergei Bubka, his last record was 6.14 m (20 ft 1 1⁄2 in) in 1994.

That held until 2014

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

is there a male pro volleyball leagues in the USA? I tried searching, but only found a couple of upstart women's leagues.

No idea. I remember back in HS we had a male volleyball team. I don't know that they exist much anymore, but apparently they do somewhere.

[Lathum]

My wife just showed my mother the french pole vaulter video and now I am shook...