WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[MikeVic]

Oh and Greyroofoo came up good.

[mauchow]

checking in.

nfg22 is a student.

[claphamsa]

good

Originally Posted by Lathum

did Pumpy come up good or bad?

[claphamsa]

Im thinking there will be more wolves than normal this game... since there is a chance we nail one night one, on a random scan.....

[claphamsa]

oh eyah and I have a "Convinient" 1045 PM hockey game tongiht

so ill be on later!

[nfg22]

Maybe less tho, because we could nail a student as a wolf...then we kill our own feeling justified.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Well, don't start trying to kill me. You're going to need me around until the end. I'm a student, and everybody loves me!

[MikeVic]

I'm a student but not everyone likes me.

[nfg22]

Im the class clown, I just know it...

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Well, don't start trying to kill me. You're going to need me around until the end. I'm a student, and everybody loves me!

Your wife said you smell a bit wolfy. She should know...she is a professor.

[SnDvls]

should have added Chief Rum came up good

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by bsak16

Your wife said you smell a bit wolfy. She should know...she is a professor.

She only said that because I howled as I sprayed my pheromones all over her.

[Chief Rum]

Yes, you're right, I am good and a seer.

I scanned Lathum, and SOB...he actualyl came up good. So I in fact must be the fool.

J/K Lathum.

[Lathum]

lol

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Path- Do the wolves know each other to start the game?

IIRC in the first edition on this one they didn't.

Generally, yes.

[The Jackal]

Uh, thanks for the vote clap. And to think, I had you as my beneficiary from day one until you were lynched! Bad choice on my part, clearly.

I promise to be more active in this game - especially without those money conditions (no offense to barkeep, it was a great game but I just didn't have the time to keep up with what the hell was going on).

For now I'll abstain from voting, we do have almost 24 hours to decide.

How many wolves do we think there are? Four, five?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Checking in.....Saldana seems to be a seer...

Are you just being facetious here, or were you told in your PM that saldana was your N0 scan and came up good?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

Generally, yes.

Generally?

I sorta hate you right now.

[RendeR]

Joe Schmoe Villager here. I scanned Bsak and, go figure, he turned up good.

Has ANYONE had a scan that said someone was wolfish? Did anyone else get Bsak? I noticed a couple people got duplicate night 0 scans.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by path12

Generally, yes.

Generally.. what hijinks are you up to..

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Generally?

I sorta hate you right now.

[The Jackal]

Oh, and I scanned MikeVic, and he's clean.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Checking in.....Saldana seems to be a seer...

On second thought, I am pretty sure you mean he was your N0 scan, since he hadn't even posted since the start of the game.

Let me know if I am wrong, but I am counting your post here as a "villager" scan of saldana.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Are you just being facetious here, or were you told in your PM that saldana was your N0 scan and came up good?

No actually I am lying because we are both wolves ...ha gave it away. I say "seems to be" because I am most likely imperfect in my seeing abilities.

[nfg22]

Dola, why would I be facetious about that?

[Barkeep49]

"seem to be" was also in my message, fwiw.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Uh, thanks for the vote clap. And to think, I had you as my beneficiary from day one until you were lynched! Bad choice on my part, clearly.

I promise to be more active in this game - especially without those money conditions (no offense to barkeep, it was a great game but I just didn't have the time to keep up with what the hell was going on).

For now I'll abstain from voting, we do have almost 24 hours to decide.

How many wolves do we think there are? Four, five?

Completely pulling this outta my ass...my gut says four. Five is a distinct possibility, especially if there isn't 100% communication amongst the wolves.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Dola, why would I be facetious about that?

Well, we have already had a "oh, and I'm a seer" joke. Day One "obvious" jokes are not unusual in WW games.

[Chief Rum]

There are going to be a ton of scans so let's start keeping track:

clap (2 V/ 0 W)-- Lathum (V; 90), oliegirl (V; 96)
Pumpy Tudors (1 V/ 0 W)-- claphamsa (V; 92 & 103)
Mr. Wednesday (1 V/ 0 W)-- Barkeep49 (V; 97)
saldana (1 V / 0 W)-- nfg22 (V; 98)
Greyroofoo (1 V / 0 W)-- MikeVic (V; 101)
nfg22 (1 V / 0 W)-- mauboy1 (V; 102)
Chief Rum (1 V / 0 W)-- SnDvls (V; 111)
Lathum (1 V / 0 W)-- Chief Rum (V; 113)
bsak16 (1 V / 0 W)-- Render (V; 119)
MikeVic (1 V / 0 W)-- The Jackal (V; 122)

All right, key to the above: Target scans are to the right, people who claimed to scan them are to the left. 'V' is villager, 'W' is wolf, duh. The number after the V/W by the claiming parties is the post they announced their scan.

Total scans announced as of post #128.

11 total scans== (11 V / 0 W).

With 21 players, we should have 21 Night 0 scans, although at least some of us will be lying (I assume wolves don't actually get scans). Might be good to not mention the specific verbiage of the scans we get, as we might pin wolves later with that.

[nfg22]

Sorry. I am new to this. Yet if I were a werewolf, and thus working at deception(Which all humans have experience in), I would most likely try to be normal as possible.

Then again I guess by being abnormal I wouldnt look like a wolf trying to be normal. Basically, Yes Saldana came up as good but seing as we are all, except one, imperfect, I see no reason to believe anyone right now, whether they claim wolf or seer. That even goes for my own scan.

[The Jackal]

Thanks CR, that's useful, and will continue to be useful.

[nfg22]

Good work Cheif...Honestly that chart helps, and will be more useful in two days when we have enough info to start figuring out who can be trusted because of their ability.

[ntndeacon]

I scanned Pumpy in my Night 0 scan. he came up spotless.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I scanned Pumpy in my Night 0 scan. he came up spotless.

but wolves don't have spots, Oh...nevermind =)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

There are going to be a ton of scans so let's start keeping track:

clap (2 V/ 0 W)-- Lathum (V; 90), oliegirl (V; 96)
Pumpy Tudors (1 V/ 0 W)-- claphamsa (V; 92 & 103)
Mr. Wednesday (1 V/ 0 W)-- Barkeep49 (V; 97)
saldana (1 V / 0 W)-- nfg22 (V; 98)
Greyroofoo (1 V / 0 W)-- MikeVic (V; 101)
nfg22 (1 V / 0 W)-- mauboy1 (V; 102)
Chief Rum (1 V / 0 W)-- SnDvls (V; 111)
Lathum (1 V / 0 W)-- Chief Rum (V; 113)
bsak16 (1 V / 0 W)-- Render (V; 119)
MikeVic (1 V / 0 W)-- The Jackal (V; 122)

All right, key to the above: Target scans are to the right, people who claimed to scan them are to the left. 'V' is villager, 'W' is wolf, duh. The number after the V/W by the claiming parties is the post they announced their scan.

Total scans announced as of post #128.

11 total scans== (11 V / 0 W).

With 21 players, we should have 21 Night 0 scans, although at least some of us will be lying (I assume wolves don't actually get scans). Might be good to not mention the specific verbiage of the scans we get, as we might pin wolves later with that.

Two quick thoughts:

One, we have already had a duplicate scan on claphamsa. Let's guess the wolves do not receive scan results (why would they need them?). But they need to fit in. They need to say they scanned someone and what result that was, or we will be immediately suspicious. So what should they do? Offer up fake scans, of course.

But here is the potential problem the "fake scan" plan will have. It seems reasonable that path would have had all 21 players scanned by the other 21 players. Not necessarily true (which is where the wolves' breathing room comes), but I would lean that way as a guess. So no duplicate scans on Night 0, since path himself is assigning the scans. So the presence of a duplicate scan right now suggests the possibility that either Lathum or oliegirl is a wolf (and the other probably a villager).

The choice for the wolves is exactly that risk: name a scan early and get featured as a double scan and a potential wolf. Or check in "late" and name the scanned after most of the other scans have been announced.

I suppose we can always ask path if scan choices were random on N0 or if each player had an individual scanner.

path, could you address this?

I will address my second thought in the next post.

[nfg22]

good point...that way would make it too easy I hope that is not the case.

[Chief Rum]

Second thought--there will be a slight bias toward accuracy in our abilities.

path used five rolls of a 20-sided dice. That means the lowest ability (outside of the Fool) possible is 5%, and the highest is 100% (and there can be more than one 100%, although the chance of that roll is 0.00003.1 %, whioch I think is about as bad some state lotteries). I think there is also an increased likelihood of us being around the average of those two numbers (52.5 %), as the repeated rolls will tend to mitigate each other back toward the mean.

I need to go look up some stat references to see if I can find the "tree graph" that will apply to this situation.

So, we are "slightly" more likely to be accurate than inaccurate.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I suppose we can always ask path if scan choices were random on N0 or if each player had an individual scanner.

path, could you address this?

Decided to put this quote here as a stand alone so path wouldn't miss it.

[nfg22]

Yes but even with that slight accuracy, and it is slight, it is much more likely assuming 5 wolves at the most, that each scan on a wolf is actually a false one and is actually a seer.

That is a confusing. Basically I am saying that a scan that comes up as a wolf is more likely to be false than true. Which makes this dangerous until we have more information.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Yes but even with that slight accuracy, and it is slight, it is much more likely assuming 5 wolves at the most, that each scan on a wolf is actually a false one and is actually a seer.

That is a confusing. Basically I am saying that a scan that comes up as a wolf is more likely to be false than true. Which makes this dangerous until we have more information.

Actually, I was meaning to try to figure that out, because I am not 100% sure that's true. But it will take some math work. It would be nice if we had a statitstician in the group.

[Greyroofoo]

I checked out DodgerChick.

She's a student.

[nfg22]

I am not a statastician but at 52 percent...assuming 5 wolves...Lets see.. 21-5=16...16x.52=8.32 so...7.68 incorrect wolve scans...versus about 2.55 correct wolve scans.

thats 7 versus 2. Basically out of nine scans we have two correct ones. If we double up a scan it increases the percentages that it is correct to about 75 percent. That is enough to vote on in my opinion.

[nfg22]

This also makes it disconcerting that we havent even had one wolf scan, false or not. Because at 12 scans, we should have about 5. I know I have alot of variable there but I dont know if we understand this well. Im just throwing out what I got.

[nfg22]

What I meant by double up, means that if we have two scans on the same person come up the same...

[Chief Rum]

Now, I'm following you there. I still want to crunch the numbers myself (I am much better crunching my own numbers than trying to follow someone else's ), but I already did pick up on the oddity of no wolf scans yet.

[nfg22]

You dont like my numbers/ They are perfect. You are a wolf!

[Greyroofoo]

Just to throw something out there, path could've made it so most students have a 25%-30% success rate.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Might be good to not mention the specific verbiage of the scans we get, as we might pin wolves later with that.

I assure all players that the specific verbiage is virtually the same for all players, barring my occasional lapses with villager/student and such.

[nfg22]

Still we are under par for course. Of course no matter what we are under.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I suppose we can always ask path if scan choices were random on N0 or if each player had an individual scanner.

path, could you address this?

I will not divulge any circumstances regarding N0 choices other than to say that duplication is indeed possible, and that the process was completely up to me alone.