WW LXXXIV -- Life Contingencies (GAME OVER)

[Hannibal Lecter]

I think the plan was to go for the non rolled people, therefore eliminating risk that the seer would become stew!

[The Jackal]

You're right, I misread what hoops was saying.. and it was starting to seem weird trying to take out one of our roles so quickly. I'll likely stay on path, then.

[hoopsguy]

Hannibal, since you and I are both around - feel like disclosing your role?

1 in 3 shot that you name one that is different than me. I'm willing to go first if you feel strongly about it. Hopefully the others are willing to do their part as well in suggesting their role, or countering if someone claims it.

[hoopsguy]

My part of the plan at this point, since we have four claiming roles and only three that are listed, is to see if we can vet this out between us tonight between now and the deadline.

However, in terms of a vote I don't know if we have enough time (and participation) to settle the showdown tonight. I'm really pleased if we do, but realistically I'm expecting that we'll be setting up two non-roled for the vote tonight.

[Barkeep49]

I'm around and happy to reveal the name of my role first since I was the last to claim a role: BG.

[hoopsguy]

BK's role does not conflict with mine.

[Lathum]

this is interesting

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, BK - I'll defer to you guys on who you would prefer make their claim first. Me or Hannibal.

[Lathum]

you

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I picked those two because they were in the thread and posting at same time as Hannibal and I were chilling out here.

[hoopsguy]

BK, if you agree that I should go first I'll post my role right now.

[The Jackal]

Since this was all your idea I'd say you might as well go first, not going to be that surprising what you post, what'll be interesting is what Heinz says when he shows up tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

OK, since two people have asked me to go first.

Seer.

[Lathum]

if hannibel isn;t back by the deadline I am switching my vote back to him

[hoopsguy]

Hmm - really do not like the silence here.

[hoopsguy]

Render - Path (82), Packer (89), Lathum (94)
Lathum - Hannibal (50), Render (92)
Barkeep - Heinz (47)
Path - Jackal (54)

No Vote - Hoops, Barkeep

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Hmm - really do not like the silence here.

exactly.

He took a long time to mull over your plan, then when you suggested the reveal he disspeared.

I realize my voting him actualy puts me in more danger, but I really am leary of him right now

[hoopsguy]

What has me concerned is:
- if he is a wolf he should be claiming the third role
- if he is the Duke he should be very worried about Heinz, using his power to put 40% on him and maybe 30% on two other non-roled people
- if he is the BG he should be all over BK
- if he wants to bluff at my role he should be all over me

But I can't come up with a scenario where he should disappear in the middle of this. It kind of leaves the rest of us hanging.

[Lathum]

where is BK, didn't he vote?

[Hannibal Lecter]

unvote lathum
vote hoops the wolf!

[hoopsguy]

Cool, I now trust Hannibal.

[Lathum]

huh?

[Hannibal Lecter]

I appologize I have been doing laundry, I need to change my scan now, since hoops is a wolf. I am interested to think on what he expected to gain by this gambit, and how it could possibly work for him.

In the mean time, anyone care for a bowl of hoops the wolf stew?

[Lathum]

he just called you a wolf, how can you trust him?

[hoopsguy]

I'll use my Duke ability tonight so others trust me as well.

40% on Heinz (most I can do)
10% on me
Split the rest among other non-roled people.

And congrats to the wolves if they have played me down the stretch.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by Lathum

huh?

this should be good!

[Lathum]

unvote Render
Vote Hannibal Lechter

[hoopsguy]

Here is the Duke order that I have submitted. We'll see how it turns out.

40% Heinz
20% Lathum
20% Render
10% Hoops
4% Jackal
3% Path
3% PackerFanatic

[Hannibal Lecter]

so You are saying Messer BarKeep is not the wolf? Simply because Heinze is not here? Very interesting.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by Lathum

unvote Render
Vote Hannibal Lechter

very interesting....

[hoopsguy]

Per rules, I can only list 40% on top candidate.
I have to list 10% on myself.
I left the other multi-vote getters with 20% and split the remaining 10% across the guys who did not get multiple votes.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

so You are saying Messer BarKeep is not the wolf? Simply because Heinze is not here? Very interesting.

If BK is a wolf, he had enough balls to claim his role before either of us when we were both around. Kudos to him if he bluffed it.

[Lathum]

i see what hoops did

UNVOTE HL
VOTE JEHEINZE

[hoopsguy]

He would have had to bluff and be lucky that neither of us would challenge his role. Just hope he picked the one-in-three that matched up with the Heinz role.

[Barkeep49]

Vote Hannibal

[hoopsguy]

Hannibal, I would encourage that you scan one of the uncleared folks. We'll have our answers soon enough on Heinz/BK, I expect. The goal should be to continue expanding our COT in the event that one of us is not around tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE HEINZ

[hoopsguy]

Not that my vote matters - I'm duking the vote today.

[Barkeep49]

Sorry. See that was a bad vote now, but wanted to get a vote in. Hopefully it doesn't effect the %s. I've been tied up with watching the election while doing a pile of work and I forget to check back in here.

[hoopsguy]

My first time ever getting a duke role and I only have 40% chance of hitting my target, plus 10% chance to off myself. Sigh.

After all the damage that dukes have done to me over the years I'm feeling kind of shafted. Unless, of course, Heinz is a good guy. Then I'm feeling lucky that the rules saved me from myself.

[Hannibal Lecter]

We shall see, and hopefully we can dine on wolf!

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I had a lot of fun scheming this afternoon/evening on how I wanted to see this play out. Would be interested in feedback from others either now (before results go up) or after the game on what they think would have been optimal play.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I think this discussion would be better after all is said and done, we do not know who, is in fact, who yet!

[Passacaglia]

Hey guys -- quick results since I have people over.

hoopsguy dukes the vote to jeheinz72, who is a WOLF!

[Hannibal Lecter]

very nice good sir!

[Lathum]

nice

[Hannibal Lecter]

so we must assume that all the people who revealed as rolled players are telling the truth. One advantage of this playing out this way, we KNOW all the roles and there is no doubt, good to have a 3 deep COT after one vote! Now its just a numbers game, one that we will win!

[hoopsguy]

Well that worked well

[hoopsguy]

Hannibal, as I mentioned earlier (and now that you trust me a bit more) I would suggest not scanning either me or BK. One of the three of us is likely to be dead tomorrow. But if I ran the numbers right there is a 75% chance that you are with us tomorrow and in position to reveal another non-roled person as villager/wolf. That will help us to tighten the vise on the wolves even further.

Heck, pick the right person and we can vote nightfall and end this by noon tomorrow Assuming two wolves, of course ...

[Lathum]

please scan me