Werewolf L Kate Beckinsale - day 7, deadline Thursday 10pm Eastern Time

[Telle]

Ok so that's three on JE, two on me, and one on DC so far. At least we have something to talk about

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Telle

Ok so that's three on JE, two on me, and one on DC so far. At least we have something to talk about

And am I just a total geek for tracking this in a Google Spreadsheet?

[JHandley]

I don't know about geek, but definitely sounds a little mad. Almost like a mad scientist.

[Telle]

Lol. Nice spin. Sorry, but I'm just a plain old villager.

[cartman]

Jonathan looking good in pre-lynching.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Telle

And am I just a total geek for tracking this in a Google Spreadsheet?

Just a quick note, nope, not at all... I used to track votes all the time. The beauty about Google spreadsheets is that you have instant access no matter where you go.

[Barkeep49]

The math dictates that overwhelming a villager will be lynched in early votes, especially as the wolves are unlikely to "randomly" be voting for a wolf during the first two votes. So yes we'll likely lynch a villager, but we have a 0% chance of lynching a wolf if we lynch no one. Assuming 3 wolves we have a 16% chance of finding one today and four wolves, more likely in this case as I think there could be 3 regular wolves + mad scientist, would give us a 21% chance (though as I noted it's slightly less because the wolves can coordinate against our randomly succeeding). Of course there is a 95% chance of that we'll lose a villager tonight which is why I'd rather take our chances in the day.

However, as I've thought this through one could actually argue the math does favor a no lynch on Day 1.

We have 2 wolf detectors and 1 mad scientist detector. Tonight, if we don't lynch anyone, and assuming there are 3 wolves, we have a 31% chance of finding a wolf plus a 5% chance of finding the scientist giving us a total bad guy chance of 36% (slightly less as there’s about a 1% chance that the wolves would choose a seer who happens to find a wolf). Two wolves plus mad scientist gives us a 27% chance of finding a wolf. This compares well with our 21% or 16% day time chance (again less because it’s not completely random).

Now, if we do lynch, the math gets considerably more complex and unless someone is really interested I don’t think I feel like working it out (as it would involve a whole bunch of probability squares), but there’s a 16% chance we’d accidentally lynch a seer thus reducing our chances at finding a wolf.

With three seers, and what I perceive to be an abnormally high seer/wolf ratio (owing to the existence of so many seers) I think it could be argued that no lynch is actually the EV play here.

[KWhit]

I'm assuming Mad Scientist = conversion ability. Is that everybody else's take on the role?

Originally Posted by Rules

Mad Scientist - You have found Dr. Frankenstein's old notes, and have begun work on an army of lycanthropes. If lynched, you will turn up as human, but for game purposes you count as a wolf.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I'm assuming Mad Scientist = conversion ability. Is that everybody else's take on the role?

That's how I see it as well.

[path12]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I'm assuming Mad Scientist = conversion ability. Is that everybody else's take on the role?

That's my take.

[path12]

For something different:

VOTE NO LYNCH

I could change my mind.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I'm assuming Mad Scientist = conversion ability. Is that everybody else's take on the role?

Hmm. That's certainly possible but I considered it more as a wolf who is harder to detect. But the conversion is an interesting possibility and would lean it towards the game being a 2 wolf + 1 mad scientist game to start with.

[KWhit]

Obviously, my thinking comes from this:

Originally Posted by Rules

and have begun work on an army of lycanthropes

[JHandley]

Can't be as simple as tapping someone on the shoulder. I would imagine there's hidden factors in the Mad Scientist's role.

[Telle]

So two games ago Barkeep proclaimed loudly for a day and a half that not lynching is a bad idea with absolutely no value. Then today he comes out with a very compelling, mathematically based argument as to why in this particular game not lynching might be beneficial.

So, he could be a wolf and still heartedly believes that not lynching is only good for the wolves. But that would be somewhat foolish because he'd only be able to use that argument once before it was obvious in any game he tried it.

So, for the moment at least I'll go along with his train of thought.

UNVOTE DODGERCHICK
VOTE NO LYNCH

[JHandley]

To extrapolate on the idea of the Mad Scientist, I think lynching on the first day does have value.

I can't believe the Mad Scientist role is as simple as the person telling someone they are now a wolf. I think they will need to accumulate other players knowledge before they can start to amass an army of lycanthropes. This is what I think the rules are refering to when they claim there are other hidden roles in this game. I don't think the value of possibly eliminating the Mad Scientist or the "ingredients" they need to complete the research can be taken for granted.

The math adds up only if you have a known quantity of variables. Right now, we don't know anything. If we could be assured that there were only 3 wolves, then the math absolutely makes sense to wait until more information is available. However, we don't know (a) how many wolves there are or (b) how many wolves there could be in the future. For this reason I think we have to take the action to the wolves.

[LoneStarGirl]

Well you know me, and I hate having ties and I hate no lynch first days, I think they both help the wolves too much.

And does anybody have a vote count? It looks like this Day 1 is going to be close

[Telle]

So how do conversions usually work? This is only my second game and I'm not really understanding that bit of it.

[Telle]

JE - Dodgerchick, Lathum, cartman
Telle - JHandley, KWhit
no lynch - path12, Telle

[RendeR]

Somehow watching the iananity of Day one voting just makes me shake my head in wonderment.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Somehow watching the iananity of Day one voting just makes me shake my head in wonderment.

There's not much alternative, IMO. Especially if there are conversions in this game. We don't need to just stand around chatting while wolves kill us or convert us.

It sucks to have to vote day 1, but at least there's a chance that it will help us down the road.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The math dictates that overwhelming a villager will be lynched in early votes, especially as the wolves are unlikely to "randomly" be voting for a wolf during the first two votes. So yes we'll likely lynch a villager, but we have a 0% chance of lynching a wolf if we lynch no one. Assuming 3 wolves we have a 16% chance of finding one today and four wolves, more likely in this case as I think there could be 3 regular wolves + mad scientist, would give us a 21% chance (though as I noted it's slightly less because the wolves can coordinate against our randomly succeeding). Of course there is a 95% chance of that we'll lose a villager tonight which is why I'd rather take our chances in the day.

However, as I've thought this through one could actually argue the math does favor a no lynch on Day 1.

We have 2 wolf detectors and 1 mad scientist detector. Tonight, if we don't lynch anyone, and assuming there are 3 wolves, we have a 31% chance of finding a wolf plus a 5% chance of finding the scientist giving us a total bad guy chance of 36% (slightly less as there’s about a 1% chance that the wolves would choose a seer who happens to find a wolf). Two wolves plus mad scientist gives us a 27% chance of finding a wolf. This compares well with our 21% or 16% day time chance (again less because it’s not completely random).

Now, if we do lynch, the math gets considerably more complex and unless someone is really interested I don’t think I feel like working it out (as it would involve a whole bunch of probability squares), but there’s a 16% chance we’d accidentally lynch a seer thus reducing our chances at finding a wolf.

With three seers, and what I perceive to be an abnormally high seer/wolf ratio (owing to the existence of so many seers) I think it could be argued that no lynch is actually the EV play here.

Just got back in and catching up, but it sounds here like you've gone through some of the same thoughts that i have and why I am starting to budge from my pro-lynch thoughts over the last few days.

One thing though, you mention three seers. I thought we only had 1 who could find a wolf and 1 who could find the mad scientist?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just got back in and catching up, but it sounds here like you've gone through some of the same thoughts that i have and why I am starting to budge from my pro-lynch thoughts over the last few days.

One thing though, you mention three seers. I thought we only had 1 who could find a wolf and 1 who could find the mad scientist?

Van Helsing "may" identify a wolf according to the rules.

[Barkeep49]

Yeah I'm getting that from "If the player is a wolf, you may discover his identity - as he will yours."

I hadn't read that with the may the first time. My calculations would be very different depending on what percent of a chance that may is. If it's a 50% chance, for instance, it would only be about a 29% chance of finding 3 wolves and 22% of finding 2 wolves.

[Lathum]

Math be damned, I am still not a fan of giving the wolves a head start.

[Telle]

Although do you think a seer would just go to their lynching quietly? Don't you think they'd speak up if it was pretty obvious that we were about to kill them off?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Yeah I'm getting that from "If the player is a wolf, you may discover his identity - as he will yours."

I hadn't read that with the may the first time. My calculations would be very different depending on what percent of a chance that may is. If it's a 50% chance, for instance, it would only be about a 29% chance of finding 3 wolves and 22% of finding 2 wolves.

Exactly. And with the possibility of conversions, it throws your conclusions even more in doubt.

I have no idea if it makes more sense to lynch or not lynch today. I can actually see arguments for either.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by path12

For something different:

VOTE NO LYNCH

I could change my mind.

I'm not a good WW player, but even I know that a NO Lynch this early is horrible for us villagers.

And because I have no real reason to vote for anyone:

Vote path12

This is subject to change as well.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Math be damned, I am still not a fan of giving the wolves a head start.

And I don't know if I was clear in my previous post, but I don't think the math BK did is valid at all, actually, because there's too much we don't know about the rules.

No offense to BK intended...

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Math be damned, I am still not a fan of giving the wolves a head start.

I still don't understand how lynching a villager is a good play on day one. If we lynch a villager, that gives the wolves one less person they have to go after on night one. Which gives them a better chance at hitting an important role.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Telle

Although do you think a seer would just go to their lynching quietly? Don't you think they'd speak up if it was pretty obvious that we were about to kill them off?

Another strike against a day one lynch. On the off chance that we do hit on a seer, we either kill them or they draw so much attention to themselves that the wolves get to them early.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

I still don't understand how lynching a villager is a good play on day one. If we lynch a villager, that gives the wolves one less person they have to go after on night one. Which gives them a better chance at hitting an important role.

You can say that for every night.

How is lynching a villager on day 2 a good play? What about day 3?

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Might as well get this out of the way because I'm not changing my mind on this.

VOTE NO LYNCH

[KWhit]

And just to clarify, I don't feel really strongly either way about a lynch today or not. But for the most part, if we don't lynch today, then day 2 will feel almost just as random as day 1. The seer (and maybe Van Helsing) may have a little bit more info, but for the rest of us simple villagers it will still be a totally random vote.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Telle

Although do you think a seer would just go to their lynching quietly? Don't you think they'd speak up if it was pretty obvious that we were about to kill them off?

If you're a seer and it looks like you're going down, then yeah, you should come out. It's tricky timing though, you want to wait as long as you can to protect having to come out, but you need to be early enough that people can switch off you.

At least that way you get one view before the wolves get you, which is worse than more but better than none.

[KWhit]

Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick, Lathum, cartman
Telle - JHandley, KWhit
path12 - Schmidty
no lynch - path12, Telle, Jonathan Ezarik

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by KWhit

You can say that for every night.

How is lynching a villager on day 2 a good play? What about day 3?

Sigh. I guess I have to keep on repeating myself here. Look, I know that day two is not much better in terms of knowledge gathered, but there is still knowledge that comes into play. As it stands now, no one (minus the wolves) has any knowledge about anyone else. None. After tonight, some will have gained some info while others are still ignorant. But at least some good guys will have info which is better than nothing.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by KWhit

And I don't know if I was clear in my previous post, but I don't think the math BK did is valid at all, actually, because there's too much we don't know about the rules.

No offense to BK intended...

Its okay, its obvious he isn't a math major

[path12]

My favorite day 1 vote is for someone who hasn't checked in or voted.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

Sigh. I guess I have to keep on repeating myself here. Look, I know that day two is not much better in terms of knowledge gathered, but there is still knowledge that comes into play. As it stands now, no one (minus the wolves) has any knowledge about anyone else. None. After tonight, some will have gained some info while others are still ignorant. But at least some good guys will have info which is better than nothing.

Yes, you're right. However, a night has gone by without the villagers taking action, but letting the wolves kill one of us off and possibly converting one of us.

It just gives the wolves an extra day to do their thing - which is not good for us.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by path12

My favorite day 1 vote is for someone who hasn't checked in or voted.

I have to agree with you on that one

[Telle]

Originally Posted by path12

My favorite day 1 vote is for someone who hasn't checked in or voted.

Antmeister is the only player to not yet check in.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Math be damned, I am still not a fan of giving the wolves a head start.

You realize there's a nearly equal likelihood that we lynch a useful villager role as a wolf?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by path12

My favorite day 1 vote is for someone who hasn't checked in or voted.

Agreed.

[LoneStarGirl]

Votes as of 2 pm Central
Chief Rum 2
DaddyTorgo 2
Gonzo 1
Neon_Chaos 1
tanglewood 1
Antmeister 0

[LoneStarGirl]

Because I am *still* confused about the last game we played, and because he has only had one post

vote tanglewood

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Votes as of 2 pm Central
Chief Rum 2
DaddyTorgo 2
Gonzo 1
Neon_Chaos 1
tanglewood 1
Antmeister 0

Huh?

[LoneStarGirl]

DC where is your man?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by KWhit

And I don't know if I was clear in my previous post, but I don't think the math BK did is valid at all, actually, because there's too much we don't know about the rules.

No offense to BK intended...

None taken but what besides the Van Helsing thing do you think we don't know?

I frankly don't tend to put a lot of stock in statements such as "there might be other hidden roles". I feel those statements are more often about giving the wolf's freedom to lie than they are about significant roles. I would say hidden roles are most likely along the lines of a Duke and special abilities for the wolves.

[Lathum]

At some point you have to break some eggs to make an omlette.

When the vote is spread out day one you don't learn much but if it is down to 2-3 candidates you give yourself something to go on.