03-08-2010, 04:44 PM | #101 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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I agree completely with Lathum and Kwhit. They've explained the reasons very well, so I won't rehash them, but I will say one of the strengths of my game is mid to late in the game when looking back at all the votes from the early days and noticing patterns and what not. Having pre determined day 1 votes makes that more difficult and is not helpful for the village day 1 or later in the game.
At this point, I lean towards voting Poli or EF. My gut so far tells me PB is a villager. |
03-08-2010, 04:49 PM | #102 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
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And certainly there is no qualm with voting quiet people just to vote them at the start.
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03-08-2010, 04:52 PM | #103 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Well I'm heading out soon and I don't know whether or not I'll get home from crochet class in time for deadline, so I need to put a vote in now. I've tend to prefer a three-way vote on Day 1, so:
vote The Jackal |
03-08-2010, 04:54 PM | #104 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Votes as of post #103:
2 - EagleFan - PudeuFrad (40), ntndeacon (57) 2 - The Jackal - Autumn (56), Telle (103) 1 - Danny - Poli (61) 3 - Poli - Lathum (63), EagleFan (66), KWhit (91) Yet to vote: Danny, J23, Jackal Everyone has checked in. |
03-08-2010, 05:03 PM | #105 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
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I am starting to come to the conclusion EF isn't bad. (at least as a day one type conclusion)
Unvote EagleFan |
03-08-2010, 05:05 PM | #106 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
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and note Eaglefans vote shuld be on Lathum not Poli
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03-08-2010, 05:05 PM | #107 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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03-08-2010, 05:07 PM | #108 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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03-08-2010, 05:08 PM | #109 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Hmmm.. and evidently my comment on making it a three-way race no longer makes sense in light of that correction to my spreadsheet. Ah well.. it's Day 1.. The Jackal is just as good of a candidate as any of us.
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03-08-2010, 05:10 PM | #110 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Votes as of post #109:
1 - EagleFan - PurdueBrad (40) 2 - The Jackal - Autumn (56), Telle (103) 1 - Danny - Poli (61) 2 - Poli - Lathum (63), KWhit (91) 1 - Lathum - EagleFan (66) Yet to vote: Danny, J23, Jackal |
03-08-2010, 05:14 PM | #111 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Quote:
There are just as many theories about day one votes as there are day one votes. How are you leaning towards Poli? He is just as likely a wolf or villager as anyone else and his vote doesn't mean a thing one way or the other. Voting him just because of his vote is equally bad, or actually worse, than his day one vote. Over the past 5 games that I have been a villager (not counting any of the wolf games as I obviously wasn't worried abou deciphering anything in those games) I tried to base my votes off early voting patterns in 4 of them. I was dead wrong every time. In the 5th game I went back to reading posts and what people were saying and by day 3 I had picked up 2 of the 3 wolves (though wasn't believed). People put WAY too much stock on voting patterns. This has even been discussed in other threads (how the wolves have gotten so much better at disguising any of their early votes) but we go right back to worrying about early voting patterns? Look for inconsistencies or people trying to shove their beliefs down other players throats and that will help more that worrying about early voting patterns. |
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03-08-2010, 05:20 PM | #112 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
Not to toot my own horn as it is a strength of my game, but almost every game looking at voting patterns helps me find a wolf. Last game, it narrowed my choices to Autumn and PB on day 3 I believe. If Autumn doesn't duke it away from PB or If people followed me on PB the day Poli was lynched, the village wins that game. I won't name all the games, but needless to say, voting history helps me significantly in almost every game that I live long enough in. |
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03-08-2010, 05:38 PM | #113 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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I will say this, my vote was not necessarily pre-determined but it also wasn't (make sense?). Here's how I look at my day 1 voting:
1. Danny- not voting D1 because I've helped nightkill him D1 recently 2. Poli- figured enough people were after him for his strategy 3. Telle- I've been responsible for several early lynchings/killings of Telle when we play and I usually end up being suspicious of her 4. Lathum- last game, duking, nuff said 5. Purduebrad- come on, I love me some me 6. J23- been a good wolf partner so I give him a d1 pass this game, especially since he ended up giving his life two games ago for the good of the wolf team 7. ntndeacon- quiet but he was a candidate for me 8. Kwhit- been a good wolf partner as well but I value him as a villager a ton too 9. Autumn- two games ago he saved me, I saved him last game, maybe it's his turn to save me again. Kidding, he was a candidate 10. EagleFan- Usually votes me D1, so I could beat him to the punch. A candidate 11. Jackal- Another good wolf partner and I don't think I've played much with him lately So my candidates came down to three before conversations started: EF, Autumn, and ntn. ntn's style is quiet though, so I can't fault him for that. That left me Autumn and EF and for the first time ever I could beat him the punch. So in a way it was pre-determined by all the previous games I've played, particularly recently, and partly based on who was specifically in this game when we got under way. |
03-08-2010, 05:38 PM | #114 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Ooops, first sentence should say: vote was not necessarily pre-determined but also was.
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03-08-2010, 06:17 PM | #115 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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I love being the tip of the spear in this game. I hope I become the day 1 lynch every game. That would be awesome.
DV said not to reveal about something, but I didn't understand it. Just so you know, I'm Johnny Cage, a vanilla villager. I don't see how it has any consequence whatsoever in saying who I am since that is who I am...so there you have it.
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03-08-2010, 06:18 PM | #116 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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If I wasn't so stubborn, I'd vote myself, but why should I move my own vote when it's not me who sucks?
__________________
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03-08-2010, 06:22 PM | #117 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
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Poli we know what roles go with what names.
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03-08-2010, 06:29 PM | #118 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
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I sort of hate doing this, as I would prefer another candidate out there. I am going to put my vote on The Jackal. It is time to get this narrowed down a bit. hopefully others will make it a little closer. than 3-1 (yes I am ignoring the votes on Poli at the moment.)
Vote the Jackal |
03-08-2010, 06:33 PM | #119 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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03-08-2010, 06:36 PM | #120 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Suppose I have to vote self defense, heading out to dinner, will check back to see what goes down.
VOTE POLI |
03-08-2010, 06:37 PM | #121 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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I just read Poli's reveal.. first of all there aren't any vanilla villagers, and secondly Cage is a good one to pick to reveal as because the only way the power can be proven is by surviving a NK?
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03-08-2010, 06:38 PM | #122 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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DV - do the wolves know what roles aren't in the game?
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03-08-2010, 06:38 PM | #123 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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I'll try and check back before 9 to see if it makes sense to revisit my vote.
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03-08-2010, 06:57 PM | #124 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Quote:
Not the greatest defense of oneself to be honest, pointing out how good of a wolf partner some have been as the reason for not voting against. Actually, the reason for this post is that again you say I usually vote for you on day one. I have not voted for you on day one in almost a year. |
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03-08-2010, 06:58 PM | #125 | |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Quote:
Umm, I know what my PM said, and it said I'm a vanilla villager. Are you saying we have other stuff going on in the rules? Well, that sucks.
__________________
Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
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03-08-2010, 07:00 PM | #126 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Johnny Cage: A martial arts superstar trained by great masters around the world Johnny Cage has joined Raiden to defeat Shao Kahn as well as prove to the world that he is the great fighter he portrays in his films. Since Johnny needs to keep himself healthy for photo shoots he always travels with a personal medical team on hand. If he is the night kill target his team will be able to save him from death, but since he will have depleted theirs supplies he may only do this once.
Well I'll be danged. Why would I get told I'm a vanilla villager if I'm not.
__________________
Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
03-08-2010, 07:00 PM | #127 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Sorry, I wasn't here as much as I htought I was going to be. Have to get the kids to bed. I will be on before deadline I hope.
However, I'm going to switch my vote now in case it can count. The player who's pinged me in day one the most is not on the vote list now, but we have two hours. When I come back I'll switch it away if need be. My son is dragging me out of here, so I can't explain any more. unvote jackal vote ntndeacon |
03-08-2010, 07:03 PM | #128 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Heh, just looked at my PM again. FWIW, it says I'm Johnny Cage and a vanilla villager...and then I have a half naked picture of myself with black and blue pants and I guess gloves as well.
Not the Johnny Cage I remember from my youth, but so be it.
__________________
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03-08-2010, 07:04 PM | #129 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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As long as I can force others to predetermine their votes with my own, then the power is mine and I'll warp this game as much as I can.
__________________
Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
03-08-2010, 07:09 PM | #130 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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As of 120:
EagleFan 1 - PurdueBrad (41) Lathum 1 - EagleFan (66) The Jackal 2 - Telle (103), ntndeacon (118) Danny 1 - Poli (61) Poli 3 - Lathum (63), KWhit (91), The Jackal (120) ntndeacon 1 - Autumn (127) |
03-08-2010, 07:09 PM | #131 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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You know, it's a good thing I wasn't told I was a vanilla villager and then turn out I was the seer.
Shoot, had I known I had the nk protection going on, I wouldn't have said anything. Thanks alot, DV!
__________________
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03-08-2010, 07:12 PM | #132 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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EF, it really has been a long time since you voted me D1. I'm amazed, feels like it was just yesterday! But looks like I'll be moving for relevancy anyway.
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03-08-2010, 07:18 PM | #133 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Quote:
If it will make you feel better I'll change to you. Actually, there has been one curious play that I would like to explore and it is not related to you at all. |
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03-08-2010, 07:29 PM | #134 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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I think there are three candidates with 2 votes each. I will
unvote EF |
03-08-2010, 07:30 PM | #135 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Correct that, Poli has 3, and two candidates have 2.
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03-08-2010, 07:31 PM | #136 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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unvote danny
vote lathum See? I made a funny. Good thing that doesn't count.
__________________
Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
03-08-2010, 07:31 PM | #137 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Correct that again, I misread the post # in EF's vote count.
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03-08-2010, 07:33 PM | #138 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
NM, I'm not crazy, although I'm talking to myself here as Poli makes fake vote switches. I corrected the above to say 130 instead of 120, so this is our current count. PLUS I've now unvoted. Lathum 1 - EagleFan (66) The Jackal 2 - Telle (103), ntndeacon (118) Danny 1 - Poli (61) Poli 3 - Lathum (63), KWhit (91), The Jackal (120) ntndeacon 1 - Autumn (127) |
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03-08-2010, 07:34 PM | #139 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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So I can push Poli further ahead, tie it with Jackal, or take one of the two candidates with votes into a tie for second. For now, I'll tie things up:
vote Jackal |
03-08-2010, 07:39 PM | #140 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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That's what I'm talking about, Team Russia representing!
__________________
Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
03-08-2010, 07:57 PM | #141 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Quote:
So keep you around long enough and you can tell by random day one votes who is a wolf? I will bet the house on it that those voting histories lean heavily towards day 2, 3, etc... and the day 1 voting history that you pick up on are the changes or lack of changes. None of this has anything to dowith someone's first day one vote. You've all agreed that... 1) A villager has no idea who to vote for on day one. 2) A wolf does. In that case. If Poli is a villager, his vote on Danny is just as worthless for us to analyze if he randomly decided Danny or decided before the game. But, if Poli is a wolf his vote for Danny makes it harder for us to find him. So, please, Poli, if you are a wolf make it easier for us... That is the arguement in a nutshell. There you have it. Please wolves!!!! Please make it easier to find you!!! |
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03-08-2010, 08:03 PM | #142 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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DV, what is the ruling on a tie? No lynch or a tie breaker mechanic?
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03-08-2010, 08:03 PM | #143 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Just catching up now. I ws all set to vote for Poli with all the bickering, but I believe him in the Johnny Cage confused reveal of sorts, so I don't want to see him lynched (I'll let the wolves do that tonight most likely).
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03-08-2010, 08:03 PM | #144 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I will be around to move my vote, so I'm not going to move it right away. I won't leave it on an outlier though.
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03-08-2010, 08:06 PM | #145 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I'm hoping NTN or someone else catches on. Frankly right now I don't imagine either Jackal or Poli are wolves. Both of them made comments that make me believe they are villagers who just haven't read the rules closely.
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03-08-2010, 08:07 PM | #146 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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vote the jackal
putting my vote here for now to not kill Johnny Cage. |
03-08-2010, 08:11 PM | #147 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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As of 146:
Lathum 1 - EagleFan (66) The Jackal 4 - Telle (103), ntndeacon (118), PurdueBrad (139), J23 (146) Danny 1 - Poli (61) Poli 3 - Lathum (63), KWhit (91), The Jackal (120) ntndeacon 1 - Autumn (127) |
03-08-2010, 08:12 PM | #148 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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I'll say this: I didn't read the rules at all, particularly after I was told I was a vanilla villager. Hence, the question earlier on why shouldn't I just reveal?
I actually thought I was getting a "title" with no meaning whatsoever. So why not reveal? That was the reason I asked the question.
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03-08-2010, 08:13 PM | #149 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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unvote Lathum
vote ntndeacon Let's see what a 3rd candidate into the mix does for us. |
03-08-2010, 08:14 PM | #150 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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As of 149:
The Jackal 4 - Telle (103), ntndeacon (118), PurdueBrad (139), J23 (146) Danny 1 - Poli (61) Poli 3 - Lathum (63), KWhit (91), The Jackal (120) ntndeacon 2 - Autumn (127), EagleFan (149) |
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