Interesting times in Iran..

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

EDIT: POTENTIALLY NSFW (gore)
NPR: Death Reported Near Tehran Rally; State Dept. 'Deeply Troubled' By Events


Seems more solid than what was on Twitter.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

dola,

I wish people would stop RT every last tweet they find interesting. It just gums up the works and makes it impossible to tell the source of anything.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

NPR: Death Reported Near Tehran Rally; State Dept. 'Deeply Troubled' By Events

Seems more solid than what was on Twitter.

Fair warning, there's one very graphic picture a bit down the page there, probably not suitable for the extremely squeamish.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Thanks, edited.

[JohnnyBGood]

Uhhh, I'd say this pretty much "confirms" shootings. Warning... extremely graphic and disturbing content. NSFW.

Edit: Attachment removed. I couldn't figure out how to use the spoiler button. Apologies. Here is an html link if you so wish.

http://inapcache.boston.com/universa...1_19382207.jpg

[stevew]

please edit that.
kthx.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JohnnyBGood

Uhhh, I'd say this pretty much "confirms" shootings.

I don't think there was much doubt about the shooting, but that picture sure seems a lot different than the alleged confirmation that the protesters had basically kicked ass & took names at the militia headquarters.

[lordscarlet]

Reporteldy there are leaked interior ministry statistics that say Ahmadinejad came in third... by a lot

Iran protest cancelled as leaked election results show Mahmoud Amadinejad came third - Telegraph

[JAG]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Reporteldy there are leaked interior ministry statistics that say Ahmadinejad came in third... by a lot

Iran protest cancelled as leaked election results show Mahmoud Amadinejad came third - Telegraph

Mr Mousavi's cancellation of the protest came as sporadic disturbances continued around the Iranian capital, and reports circulated of leaked interior ministry statistics showing him as the clear victor in last Friday's polls.

The statistics, circulated on Iranian blogs and websites, claimed Mr Mousavi had won 19.1 million votes while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won only 5.7 million.

The two other candidates, reformist Mehdi Karoubi and hardliner Mohsen Rezai, won 13.4 million and 3.7 million respectively. The authenticity of the leaked figures could not be confirmed.

I think those leaked numbers are as bogus or worse than the ones the government gave out. I find it hard to believe almost any incumbent (unless arrested or other major scandal) would get less than 14% of the vote, much less one that had popularity as he did amongst certain voting blocs as well as one that had some questionable tools used to help him in the election (shutdown of the text messaging services for a few days through the election, word of voter intimidation).

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Apparently Obama will speak at 5. Interesting to see how he handles this.

If it were me, I'd say something along the lines of noting that the official complaint process had put the ball back in the Supreme Leader's court, and that the U.S. and indeed the rest of the world sincerely hopes that he will act positively on it and lead his country to a peaceful resolution.

Paints the U.S. as an objective observer (whether we are or not), implies that they've got a process and they should use their process, and puts responsibility on Khameni to run his country properly.

[lordscarlet]

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

and puts responsibility on Khameni to run his country properly.

While I don't really disagree with your analysis/recommendation otherwise, that last bit has as much chance of happening as hell has of freezing over in July. Unless there's some serious revolutionary element that somehow needs to hear us say something in order to remain viable (and if that's the case, I question how viable they actually are), I think I'd prefer we just keep our mouths relatively shut instead of implying something that no one in their right mind could actually take seriously.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

While I don't really disagree with your analysis/recommendation otherwise, that last bit has as much chance of happening as hell has of freezing over in July.

We could have a 50 post discussion over the word properly, but suffice to say that pols and actual people usually have vastly conflicting agendas. See just about any country/society ever for an example.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

While I don't really disagree with your analysis/recommendation otherwise, that last bit has as much chance of happening as hell has of freezing over in July.

Well, quite.

[Tigercat]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

If it were me, I'd say something along the lines of noting that the official complaint process had put the ball back in the Supreme Leader's court, and that the U.S. and indeed the rest of the world sincerely hopes that he will act positively on it and lead his country to a peaceful resolution.

Paints the U.S. as an objective observer (whether we are or not), implies that they've got a process and they should use their process, and puts responsibility on Khameni to run his country properly.

Exactly how I think he should handle it as well. Their "supreme leader" is not a complete idiot, he has to realize at the very least some small reconciliation has to be made to keep the peace. The government can't just ignore millions and millions of angry people.

I doubt even Obama's detractors would expect him to go hard line against the Iranian government's internal politics without a plan. If he does make a harsh stance, the administration must have something up their sleeves.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

The government can't just ignore millions and millions of angry people.

Tell it to the Chinese.

[Tigercat]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Tell it to the Chinese.

China also had a better and much more impressive army presence in it's cities though. I should have probably said Iran specifically can't.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

Their "supreme leader" is not a complete idiot, he has to realize at the very least some small reconciliation has to be made to keep the peace.

Plus, there's the very real possibility that Khatemi had nothing to do with the fraud that was perpetrated. As I said before, I really don't see the point of him perpetrating this fraud when he gets to pick the slate of candidates anyway. If he didn't want Mousavi, he could have kept him off the slate.

In which case you'd think Khatemi would want to come down hard on someone who felt arrogant enough to upend an electoral process that the ruling regime has gone out of their way to cast as "fair". Heck there's even a movie about it.

[Tekneek]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Plus, there's the very real possibility that Khatemi had nothing to do with the fraud that was perpetrated. As I said before, I really don't see the point of him perpetrating this fraud when he gets to pick the slate of candidates anyway. If he didn't want Mousavi, he could have kept him off the slate.

Depends on what you see as a possible motive. It is also to his benefit to have as many of those eligible to vote actually go out and do it. It looks good for their claims of "democracy" and their claim to legitimacy. So, in theory, they could put a candidate on there that they will not let win, but will inspire more people to participate. In that case, they are hoping to get the upside (more participation) without the downside (landslide for that candidate). An arrogant/naive/dumb idea, if they went that route, of course.

[flere-imsaho]

The thing is, though, I don't see Khatemi as arrogant, naive or dumb.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Yes, but I would have said the same thing about Deng Xiaoping in 1989.

Point being, there's a lot under the hood here that we have no chance of seeing.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

The thing is, though, I don't see Khatemi as arrogant, naive or dumb.

definately not.

not naive, not dumb. maybe a tad bit arrogant, but the internal politics are such a mess it'd be hard to believe they can really be all that arrogant.

[Tekneek]

It would appear that they have miscalculated in some way, though, since they would prefer to not be dealing with street riots.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Here's a picture of the burning religious police base I mentioned in an earlier post.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

[Galaril]

Being married to a South Korean and having served in the US Air Force and later for the US Government in the Intel field I find there being some distinct similarities in the Pro-Democracy revolution that began in South Korea in the 1980s and what is going on in Iran right now. I do not see this turning out well for the older conservative incumbent and his supporters. I am not naive enough to believe this will turn this country around to a Pro-US viewpoint but it sure seems like a even slightly more moderate Iran will benefit everyone.

[JPhillips]

[JAG]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Plus, there's the very real possibility that Khatemi had nothing to do with the fraud that was perpetrated.

Here's a different opinion on that:

Michelle Moghtader
Director of Community Outreach, National Iranian American Council

Boston, Mass.: Could Ahmadinejad have "stolen" the election, if true, without the consent of the ruling religious leaders?

Michelle Moghtader: He definitely could not have done any of this by himself. But, the details are unknown because of the lack of international vote monitors.

Iran: Election Aftermath and World Reaction - washingtonpost.com

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Here's a picture of the burning religious police base I mentioned in an earlier post.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

umm..

Smoke billows from a burning car as supporters of defeated Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi atack a local base of the Islamic Basij militia...

This says quite clearly that there is a car burning, not the base.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I saw that video of the religious policeman shooting into the crowd. Those are the kinds of images that can really whip the student opposition into a fury. The fact that the video got out for international consumption is amazing. It's hard for the international community to avoid that kind of evidence.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JAG

I think those leaked numbers are as bogus or worse than the ones the government gave out. I find it hard to believe almost any incumbent (unless arrested or other major scandal) would get less than 14% of the vote, much less one that had popularity as he did amongst certain voting blocs as well as one that had some questionable tools used to help him in the election (shutdown of the text messaging services for a few days through the election, word of voter intimidation).

You underestimate how much they dislike him. You have to remember that during the boom in oil prices a couple years ago, Iran still had a horrible economy (while every other Middle East country thrived). Their financial problems are bad and have been going on for a long time.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

It creeps me out how they're all on motorbikes for some reason. Gives it this feeling of lawless lawmen.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

It creeps me out how they're all on motorbikes for some reason. Gives it this feeling of lawless lawmen.

There's no feeling about it. It's exactly that.

[fantom1979]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

As Nate Silver pointed out on 538, this doesn't disprove voter fraud, but it definitely doesn't prove it.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

It creeps me out how they're all on motorbikes for some reason. Gives it this feeling of lawless lawmen.

Typical 140 pound momma boy pussies who are a bad ass when they get a weeks of training, a bunch of riot gear, a batton and a gun and oh yeah 2000 of there friends behind. I love how they run around smacking woman and girls as they side step the men.

[Greyroofoo]

Man, I'm in the US military and they have yet to give me a motorcycle.

I feel screwed.


INCREASE THE US MILITARY BUDGET NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I am not naive enough to believe this will turn this country around to a Pro-US viewpoint but it sure seems like a even slightly more moderate Iran will benefit everyone.

It may not turn the government policies around right away, but you'd be hard pressed to find more pro-American muslims than the Iranians. The Kurds and maybe the Lebanese. It's amazing what actually living under a religious government/police state does to change opinions of theocracies. And there are a ton of exiles, both in Europe and the US, that would love to go back.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

And there are a ton of exiles, both in Europe and the US, that would love to go back.

I can't help but note that there are a ton of Europeans & Americans that wish they would, so it seems like a win-win.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I can't help but note that there are a ton of Europeans & Americans that wish they would, so it seems like a win-win.

not me. Persian girls are beautiful

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I can't help but note that there are a ton of Europeans & Americans that wish they would, so it seems like a win-win.

It's you Jon, so I'm sure you have enough reasons to hate anybody , but I'm not sure if you're confusing them with many other Muslim emigres. Iranian/Persian exiles/emigrants (at least the ones I've known) are generally educated and attempt to integrate themselves - and often fled the country over protest of the Mullahs takeover. They're not the ones like the Muslims in Rotterdam or the outskirts of Paris refusing to integrate and attempting to implement Sharia.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

They're not the ones like the Muslims in Rotterdam or the outskirts of Paris refusing to integrate and attempting to implement Sharia.

I didn't say they weren't more welcome than some other alternatives, I merely pointed out in a fairly lighthearted/quick flip manner something that ought to be pretty obvious.

[RainMaker]

That you don't like brown people?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

It may not turn the government policies around right away, but you'd be hard pressed to find more pro-American muslims than the Iranians. The Kurds and maybe the Lebanese. It's amazing what actually living under a religious government/police state does to change opinions of theocracies. And there are a ton of exiles, both in Europe and the US, that would love to go back.

I think there's a danger in not knowing much of anything about Mousavi. It seems clear that he'd be better than Ahmadinejad, but we don't know to what extent. So far he's been setting himself up as defending the revolution. Would we get any better relations with him than with Khatami, who had nearly all of his reforms blocked by the clerics?

There's been a lot of discussion about what happens if the West strongly supports Mousavi and he loses, but there's also danger if he wins. If he isn't a great reformer haven't we given him the upper hand by touting him as the bringer of freedom to Iran?

I hope the protesters succeed, but I also hope Mousavi is worth the fight.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Devil you know...

or rather devil you don't can't be much worse.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

not me. Persian girls are beautiful

Sarah Shahi..... yum.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

Sarah Shahi..... yum.

There's a Persian woman named Sarah? What's that about?

[DaddyTorgo]

hxxp://www.metacafe.com/watch/yt-j-PIsk7N6oc/persian_girls_selection_of_beautiful_iranian_girls/

SFW but a few modeling shots with some skin so i hxxp'd it anyways

1:35 and 1:48...WOW
3:47
4:46

yeahhhh...definately

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

There's a Persian woman named Sarah? What's that about?

Aahoo Jahansouz is her real name-She was the really hot chick who Tony was banging in the last season of the Sopranos. I think the one he flew out to see that was Chris's friend.

[stevew]

Golshifteh Farahani from Body of Lies was definitely a highlight of that film.

[DaddyTorgo]

who's the girl in that video i posted at 1:35 and 1:48 - she is WOW. must be a supermodel of some sort?

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by stevew

Aahoo Jahansouz is her real name-She was the really hot chick who Tony was banging in the last season of the Sopranos. I think the one he flew out to see that was Chris's friend.

She is a great-great-granddaughter of the 19th century Iranian king Fath Ali Shah Qajar.

hxxp://gearpatrol.com/images/sarah_shahi2.jpg