World Politics

[sterlingice]

Taliban suspend university education for women in Afghanistan | CNN

Just in case anyone is wondering, the New Improved Taliban is... same as the old Taliban

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

From a strictly military point of view, a secretary in the Commander's Office is most definitely at that level. Outside of that I think it is pretty cut and dry.

If she is typing up the order to execute people, she is definitely fits the definition and seems to have committed the crime. Her defense was she did not know what was going on. All of the killings and acts of torture were either documented and sent to the Commander's office or documented by the people in the Commander's office. My guess is she typed at least one or two of those documents.

I picture all those typists in Private Ryan who are typing out the death notices in a big room. I get there weren't 20-30-40 typists but I'd think there was more than just her.

Yes, hard for me to believe she didn't know something bad was going on and she probably typed a bunch of correspondence.

Possibly the last trial of this nature. I'm thinking the last of the German Nazi's are now buried in some South American cemetery ... but then there's always the possibility that "Boys from Brazil" was based on fact!

[Edward64]

Welp, one crisis averted. But wouldn't be surprised if he pulls a Netanyahu and comes back to power sometime in the future.

https://apnews.com/article/jair-bols...8717b524bd65de

The office of Brazil’s vice president says he has become acting president, an indication that President Jair Bolsonaro has left the country and will break tradition by skipping the inauguration Sunday of his political nemesis, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The press office of Bolsonaro’s vice president, Gen. Hamilton Mourão, confirmed to journalists he was acting as president. The handoff of power to the vice president occurs whenever Brazil’s president travels abroad.

[Edward64]

I wouldn’t be surprised if getting Bolsonaro a visa was part of the deal to step aside. Assume we can ‘control’ him better in Florida.

Looks like they’ve regain some semblance of control down south.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I wouldn’t be surprised if getting Bolsonaro a visa was part of the deal to step aside. Assume we can ‘control’ him better in Florida.

Looks like they’ve regain some semblance of control down south.

Well they were somehow able to arrest people attempting to overthrow the government the same day they attempted to overthrow the government.

[flere-imsaho]

I think this means the U.S. is closer to being a failed state than Brazil.

[Edward64]

We hear about companies too big to fail. I think that applies to Pakistan as in country with nukes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64449037

Pakistan is holding last-ditch talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure help to stem a deepening economic crisis that has all but emptied its foreign exchange reserves.

It has enough dollars to cover less than a month of imports at normal levels and is struggling to service sky-high levels of foreign debt.

An IMF team is due to leave the country on Thursday after 10 days of talks with the government aimed at unlocking vital international funds.]

Don’t know what the answer is, sounds like there’s a pattern here

As for bailouts, Pakistan is no stranger to them. The country - which has a massive military budget and years of debt-driven infrastructure spending - has long failed to wean itself off populist subsides and stabilise its economy.

"If you see the history of Pakistan, we have a cycle of balance of payments problems," says Dr Sajid Amin Javed, deputy executive director at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in Islamabad.

"We go to the IMF. We implement very strict reforms, for two or three years, then it's an election year and unfortunately, we reverse them all."

But he adds: "In the long term the programme will have little to no impact. Pakistan faces a crushing debt burden. Without comprehensive debt restructuring, the country will keep landing up back at this spot, at the edge of a balance of payments crisis."

Trying to get a deal could mean painful political promises, potentially including dropping subsidies on energy.

[Edward64]

Turkye elections in May should be interesting. Not a lot of info on the opposition bloc (e.g. Ukraine, more secular? etc.). I think Erdogan is close to a frenemy so may be a good thing if he loses.

(Also reported by Reuters but that's behind a paywall)

Turkish Opposition Ahead of Erdogan by More Than 10 Points, Polls Show - Turkey - Haaretz.com

New polls show the Turkish opposition's presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leading against President Tayyip Erdogan by more than 10 percentage points ahead of elections on May 14 seen by many as the most consequential vote in Turkey's history.

The polls also show the opposition bloc, called the Nation Alliance, leading the parliamentary race, at least six points ahead of Erdogan's AK Party (AKP) and its allies. The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) remains comfortably above 10 percent.

Erdogan faces the biggest challenge to his 20-year rule after the erosion of his popularity during a cost-of-living crisis. Victims of last month's earthquake are also reconsidering their loyalty in previous AKP strongholds.

The elections will decide not just who leads Turkey but how it is governed, where its economy is headed and what role it may play to ease conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.

[Edward64]

Good that Finland seems to be going ahead with getting NATO membership and not joint with Sweden.

I wonder if Turkiye's opposition parties will be more amenable to Sweden. If so, I'm sure Sweden and other NATO countries can "donate assistance" for the vote.

Finnish president to Turkey as Erdogan drops hints on NATO membership | Euronews

Finland's President Sauli Niinistö will head to Turkey this week, purportedly to receive positive news from Ankara about his country's NATO membership bid.

Niinistö arrives in Turkey on Thursday. He will visit areas devastated by the series of earthquakes and aftershocks in February, which left tens of thousands dead and millions more needing food, water, and shelter.

On Friday, Niinistö will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul.

A longer statement from the Finnish president said Erdogan indicated he wanted to meet "President to President" when there was a decision on NATO to communicate to the Finns.

"The Turks had hoped that I would be there to acknowledge the answer when they announced this decision. Of course, I accepted the invitation and will go to receive his expression of intent," Niinistö wrote.

[Edward64]

Really no idea if Macron's move on increasing retirement age is the right move. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is about 97% so much less than the US 124%.

France’s government on Thursday invoked a special constitutional power to enact a contentious pension bill without a vote in parliament, in a risky move announced by Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne.

The bill will raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, and is the flagship legislation of President Emmanuel Macron's second term. The unpopular plan has prompted major strikes and protests across the country since January.

The move is expected to trigger a quick no-confidence motion in Macron's government.

The Senate adopted the legislation to raise the retirement age to 64 on Thursday morning, but a ballot in the lower house National Assembly scheduled for the afternoon was seen as extremely tight.

Wouldn't be surprised if same/similar move will be met with same opposition in the US. Macron may not survive the no confidence.

Opinion polls show that two-thirds of French people oppose the pension reform and support the protest movement.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Really no idea if Macron's move on increasing retirement age is the right move. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is about 97% so much less than the US 124%.



Wouldn't be surprised if same/similar move will be met with same opposition in the US. Macron may not survive the no confidence.

I have not seen anything that says how this will be implemented. I think it is inevitable that the retirement age will rise here. I am interested in the plan that Nikki Haley proposed where people entering the workforce in say 2025 and after have their retirement age changed. Telling someone that planned on retiring in say October that they have to work another two is not going the way to go imo.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I have not seen anything that says how this will be implemented. I think it is inevitable that the retirement age will rise here. I am interested in the plan that Nikki Haley proposed where people entering the workforce in say 2025 and after have their retirement age changed. Telling someone that planned on retiring in say October that they have to work another two is not going the way to go imo.

Yeah, I'm also interested in Haley's plan.

I'm surprised she was so public about it (at least this early), not saying it's not a key part to the solution but she had to know it'll be very dangerous to her political ambitions - adding to the argument the GOP wants to cut benefits (e.g. I think most will say increasing retirement age cuts benefits) and having GOP disavow it.

But if/when that plan (or any like it) are proposed, I'm sure the one's nearing retirement won't get a hit, it'll be staged like the 1983 plan.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Yeah, I'm also interested in Haley's plan.

I'm surprised she was so public about it (at least this early), not saying it's not a key part to the solution but she had to know it'll be very dangerous to her political ambitions - adding to the argument the GOP wants to cut benefits (e.g. I think most will say increasing retirement age cuts benefits) and having GOP disavow it.

But if/when that plan (or any like it) are proposed, I'm sure the one's nearing retirement won't get a hit, it'll be staged like the 1983 plan.

To be clear, I expect it to torpedo her campaign. Most people under say 40 years old have heard that Social Security won't be around when they become eligible anyway so they have no interest in keeping it around. Add that to what you said and she has no shot.

[Edward64]

I agree her Presidential ambitions were already pretty shaky, but thought maybe someone would give her a VP shot. This likely ends that also as the GOP candidate will be guilty by association.

[flere-imsaho]

In a reasonable world we could have a discussion about raising the eligibility age for SSI payouts, especially given that in 1935, when the act was passed, the eligibility age (for full payouts) was 65 and life expectancy was somewhere around 62. Those numbers are now 67 for the majority of us (for full payouts) and 79 for average life expectancy.

Of course, the above does rather beg the question about what our expectations are regarding the age of retirement, given that in 1950 the average age of people actually retiring was almost 69, but by 1989 this had dropped to almost 64.

But we don't live in that kind of world where we can have that kind of reasonable discussion.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Good that Finland seems to be going ahead with getting NATO membership and not joint with Sweden.

I wonder if Turkiye's opposition parties will be more amenable to Sweden. If so, I'm sure Sweden and other NATO countries can "donate assistance" for the vote.

Welcome to the club Finland (well, almost).

I do think Sweden's only shot is to either grovel (more than they are willing to) or hope for Erdogan to be defeated in the next election. If Erdogan is not defeated in May (and the Ukrainian war is still going on), I'd grovel.

Turkey’s president says his country will begin ratifying Finland’s bid to become a NATO member, paving the way for the country to join the security alliance after months of delays.

“We have decided to start the parliamentary ratification process of Finland’s NATO Accession Protocol,” Recep Tayyip Erdogan said at a news conference in Ankara.

Erdogan said he believes NATO “will become even stronger through Finland’s membership,” and “will play a more efficient role in preserving global security and stability.”

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Of course, the above does rather beg the question about what our expectations are regarding the age of retirement, given that in 1950 the average age of people actually retiring was almost 69, but by 1989 this had dropped to almost 64.

This is definitely a conversation that needs to be had and will be had IMO. I think the changes that came with employment in the last 2-3 years might actually encourage some people to work well into their 70's by choice as opposed to any necessity. Not having to leave my house to go to an office or not being forced to miss family events for the sake of work definitely makes it more likely for me to work longer. The downside to that will be if the old people are not leaving the jobs, what jobs are the young people moving into?

[Thomkal]

The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin and a women for abducting children in Ukraine today. Sadly I'm not sure they have any enforcement of that with Russia (and US) not being under the court's jurisdiction, but glad they are taking some kind of action against him.

[Edward64]

The Israeli protests against Netanyahu's proposed judicial overhaul looks to be a seminal event. Wouldn't surprise me if the proposal peters out and Netanyahu loses the next election.

Don't live there and don't really know if the judiciary has too much power (as claimed by Netanyahu). CNN had an article documenting the differences between Israeli and US judiciary but still don't think it was enough to truly understand who is in the right.

Probably, like most things, there is some truth from both sides.

Regardless, I am suspicious of Netanyahu and so I'd lean towards this proposal being more bad than good. But ultimately, sounds like a constitutional amendment equivalent to decide and not just the party in power.

[Thomkal]

I just don't get Israeli politics sometimes. He keeps getting back into power though he's clearly corrupt and hundreds of thousands protest against him. He wants to overhaul Israel's judicial system so they can't throw him in jail again. C'mon Israel find a way to get him out of power and keep him out.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The Israeli protests against Netanyahu's proposed judicial overhaul looks to be a seminal event. Wouldn't surprise me if the proposal peters out and Netanyahu loses the next election.

Don't live there and don't really know if the judiciary has too much power (as claimed by Netanyahu). CNN had an article documenting the differences between Israeli and US judiciary but still don't think it was enough to truly understand who is in the right.

Probably, like most things, there is some truth from both sides.

Regardless, I am suspicious of Netanyahu and so I'd lean towards this proposal being more bad than good. But ultimately, sounds like a constitutional amendment equivalent to decide and not just the party in power.

I think it is not so much a question of if the judiciary has too much power or not. There probably is truths on both sides of that discussion. The protests and opposition in general is more about the changes being pushed through by Netanyahu who is going through a corruption trial and how the changes seems to protect Netanyahu from the checks and balances of the Supreme Court. He has already made it illegal for the Supreme Court to declare the prime minister unfit for office leaving that decision up to a two third majority of the cabinet or... wait for it... the prime minister him or herself.

[Edward64]

Looks like it'll be pushed back some. It's good that some reservists protested against it but no idea why the National Guard under "Ben Gvir's ministry" will be established.

https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-...ntl/index.html

Israel’s judicial overhaul legislation will be put on hold until the next session of the Knesset, after the Passover recess in April, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power Party said in a statement Monday.

As part of the deal, a National Guard under Ben Gvir’s ministry will be established, the statement said.

Gvir insisted Monday that the judicial overhaul legislation would still come to a vote in parliament’s summer term.

He added that he had "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment that the legislation will be brought to the Knesset for approval in the next session if no agreements are reached during the recess.”

The Knesset’s summer sitting runs April 30 to July 30.

Netanyahu has not yet commented on a possible delay.

[JPhillips]

Hard not to see this as a government-backed militia ready to put down protests after these bills are re-introduced this summer. The big question is what will the IDF do in response?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Really no idea if Macron's move on increasing retirement age is the right move. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is about 97% so much less than the US 124%.


Wouldn't be surprised if same/similar move will be met with same opposition in the US. Macron may not survive the no confidence.

Been reading up on the French pension reform and increasing the retirement age. First, got a chuckle out of below quote ... sounds familiar.

France has a pension system prized for what politicians call “solidarity between the generations” – whereby the working population pay mandatory payroll charges to fund those in retirement. All French workers get a state pension.

Reading wiki, basically pension reform was one of the things Macron ran on. He paused the issue because of Covid, his party lost some elections, and after Covid subsided, he pushed the issue again. Because he wasn't confident he could get the votes, he invoked constitutional Article 49.3 which allowed him to "pass" the measure (62 to 64 retirement age by 2030) but have to face a no confidence vote.

2023 French pension reform unrest - Wikipedia

Article 49.3 of the French Constitution allows governments to bypass the National Assembly and force through bills without a vote. However, invoking it triggers a proviso that allows for no-confidence motions to be filed in the government. On only one occasion, in 1962, where the Article has been triggered has the government lost a subsequent no-confidence motion.[14]

He successfully got past the no confidence vote and it went to the Constitutional Council (somewhat equivalent of SCOTUS) who made some changes but not the big one(s).

Again, really no idea if this is the right move for France. And even though I don't like Macron's "appeasement" reach outs to Russia and China, questionable statements about Taiwan, complaints about ANKUS submarine deal, complaints about the US IRA green/EV policies etc. ...

... I do admire his steadfastness to push through something he feels was right but yet so unpopular. Macron's second term ends in 2027 but will have to wait till 2032 to run for a third term. His party may pay the price in the 2027 elections.

A big question I have is can the next President in 2027 (assuming from the opposition party) overturn this via same Article 49.3?


Some additional notes on the situation

Compared to other European countries, France possesses "one of the lowest rates of pensioners at risk of poverty", with a net pension replacement rate ("a measure of how effectively retirement income replaces prior earnings") of 74%, higher than OECD and EU averages.

From another article, the average French pension is 1,400 euros which is about $1,550. The average US social security check is $1,694. Obviously doesn't reflect cost of living, healthcare etc. but gives some indicative data points.

Macron sought to gradually raise the legal age when workers can start collecting a pension by three months every year until it reaches 64 in 2030

So from 62 to 64 in 6-7 years. A more accelerated schedule than early GOP proposals for the US.

... the cost of pensions has partially contributed to France's national debt rising to 112% of GDP, compared to 98% before the COVID-19 pandemic; this is one of the highest levels in the EU, higher than the UK and Germany.

US is about 124% debt to GDP.

In March 2023, Labor Minister Olivier Dussopt said that "without immediate action" the pensions deficit would exceed $13bn annually by 2027. The government stated that the reforms would "balance the deficit" in 2030, with a surplus amounting to billions of dollars that would "pay for measures allowing those in physically demanding jobs to retire early".[4]

Whereas in the US one can retire early at 62 vs 66/67 but get decreased SS payouts for remainder of life, there doesn't seem to be this option for the French. If there was this option, then may have been a good compromise?

[Edward64]

Congrats India. I guess?

Arguably China has done a much better job with her population growth than India. But maybe India is where China was in the 80's and will boom.

India is now the most populous nation. But this metric is more important - MarketWatch

India became the world’s most populous country on Friday, ending China’s long reign as the global No. 1, according to an analysis of United Nations population projections.

The analysis shows that India’s population reached 1,425,782,975 on Friday.

The article had an interesting metric called the Dependency Ratio. Haven't seen it before. India will be doing good. US, China, Japan are/will be sucking.

India has overwhelming economic potential, not only due to its enormous population but also because of its demographic makeup. This competitive advantage can be seen in India’s dependency ratio.

The dependency ratio is a metric that compares a nation’s youth and its elderly, who do not work, to its working population. The lower the ratio, the fewer nonworkers a country needs to support. So for example, a nation with 50 dependents for every 100 workers will have a lower dependency ratio than a nation with 90 dependents for every 100 workers.

[JPhillips]

If only there were a bunch of young immigrants ready to enter the U.S.

[GrantDawg]

No no, Jphillips. It is much better to force births by outlawing abortion and making birth control illegal.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Sure would hate to be a US citizen in Sudan right now.

I read that many are still in Sudan, possibly by choice as they are dual citizens. But have to figure many were left hanging by the rapid pull-out of the Embassy.

On the government website below. I figure the advice is shelter in place.

U.S. citizens in Sudan - On April 22, 2023, the U.S. Embassy in Khartoum suspended its operations (to include visa, passport and other routine consular services) until further notice.

To inform U.S. citizens of options to leave Sudan as security conditions permit, we need to know your information. If you are a U.S. citizen in Sudan, please fill out the following crisis intake form. (There is no need to submit this information again if you have already submitted information concerning yourself or a U.S. citizen family member to U.S. Embassy Khartoum). U.S. citizens seeking to depart Sudan can also call 1-888-407-4747 (in the United States) or +1 202-501-4444 (from overseas) for immediate assistance.

We encourage U.S. citizens to enroll in the Department of State’s Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP). STEP enrollment gives you the latest security updates and makes it easier for the U.S. Embassy to contact you in an emergency.

We understand that border crossings into neighboring countries is possible. Wait times at crossing points could vary widely and change quickly. The time frame to arrive at the land border also varies based on your geographic location, infrastructure conditions, and which border you wish to cross.

[Edward64]

Turkiye's election is on 5/14 Mothers Day. Rooting for Kilicdaroglu (Sweden too I bet), looks like he'll be very different from Erdogan. But with a coalition of 6 parties, I do wonder how effective he'll be after winning.

Turkish election: Who is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a top challenger to Erdogan? : NPR

There's a big election coming up in Turkey on May 14, one that could shape the trajectory of this NATO ally for years to come.
:
... most observers agree the race will boil down to Erdogan vs. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a candidate backed by six opposition parties.

Kilicdaroglu (pronounced KEH-lich-DAHR-OH-loo), 74, is a low-key former accountant known to followers as a clean politician who champions secular values. He leads Turkey's main secular opposition party, the Republican People's Party, or CHP.

In the 1990s, he worked in the Finance Ministry and later directed the social security institution — his resume boasts he was once named "Bureaucrat of the Year" — before becoming a member of parliament in 2002.

Kilicdaroglu not only represents his CHP party — he's the candidate of a coalition of half a dozen parties known as the Table of Six or the Nation Alliance. The coalition includes parties from the left, center and right wings of Turkish politics, and disagrees on many issues. But it has found common ground on one thing — their desire to replace Erdogan as president.

She's excited by Kilicdaroglu's pledge to restore Turkey's former parliamentary form of government, which Erdogan successfully converted into a strong presidency in a 2017 referendum.

Might be a run-off though.

Accurate polling can be hard to find in Turkey. Some recent polls see Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu in a tight race with neither winning more than 50%, which would lead to a second round between the two top candidates on May 28.

[Edward64]

Good news for Turkiye and bad news for Erdogan.

Ince's 2% should benefit the other candidate (who is fiscally conservative and more secular).

Fresh blow for ErdoÄŸan, as rival pulls out of Turkey election amid sex tape scandal – POLITICO

Turkish opposition candidate Muharrem İnce announced Thursday he was pulling out of the presidential race, in a surprise move just three days before the election.

İnce’s withdrawal is set to benefit the main opposition candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who is currently neck and neck with longtime President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the polls — and it could even allow Kılıçdaroğlu to claim outright victory in the first round.

İnce, who is currently polling around 2 percent according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, has been diverting votes from the main opposition candidate, Kılıçdaroğlu, who is supported by a six-party coalition uniting parties from left and right against Erdoğan.

Be nice to avoid a run-off.

His withdrawal from the race could allow Kılıçdaroğlu, who is currently polling at 49 percent, to win the race in the first round.

Erdoğan, who is trailing in the polls with 46 percent of the vote, is facing the toughest reelection battle of his 20-year rule on Sunday, as Turkey grapples with double-digit inflation.

If neither candidate gets over 50 percent in the first round, the election will go to a runoff on May 28.

[GrantDawg]

How trustworthy is that election going to be?

[Edward64]

Good question. Did some googling

I didn’t find anything on outright fraud concerns but there was an article about how Erdogan was using the state apparatus unfairly e.g. media

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Good question. Did some googling

I didn’t find anything on outright fraud concerns but there was an article about how Erdogan was using the state apparatus unfairly e.g. media

I have many stories of censorship and dissidents being detained. I'm agraid this going to end up being another "polls looks close, but some how he won 70% of the vote" elections.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I have many stories of censorship and dissidents being detained. I'm agraid this going to end up being another "polls looks close, but some how he won 70% of the vote" elections.

Considering our 2016 surprise, I guess anything is possible.

Really looking forward to better relations with a NATO member (seems weird to say this).

Turkey's election: Erdogan built vast power for 20 years, but he may lose Sunday : NPR

Kilicdaroglu's campaign indicates he would try to smooth things over. If he wins, he says he would bring Turkey closer to the West politically, economically and culturally, and restart attempts to join the European Union that lost steam under Erdogan years ago. And he'd be expected to reassure world leaders concerned that Turkey is sliding from democracy to authoritarianism.

But I get there are some geopolitical realities.

But Turkey's geographic place in the world probably requires it to maintain ties open to Iran, Russia and Syria. And both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu may increase pressure on Syrian refugees to leave. Anti-immigrant sentiment has grown as the economy has worsened — even though the Syrians have boosted local economies.

FWIW, it does seem Turkiye's inflation rate is doing a lot better, from a high of 85% in Oct 2022 to current 44%

[Edward64]

In addition to Turkiye, Thailand is also having elections on Sunday.

Not near as strategic as Turkiye for the US but of interest to me. I've got friends there and I know many Thais are tired of the military backed government. And also of the current King, a former playboy living in Europe until his revered father died. He returned home with a lot of baggage and is not highly regarded at all.

13 successful coups. But most recent ones have been relatively bloodless, the PMs are exiled. The monarchy is above it all and is (or was) seen as a stabilizing force. The military has its hands in many things and makes plenty of money. There's a fine balancing act between the politicians and military.

Thailand is fairly neutral. Probably won't come under the sway of China nor the US anytime soon. But the younger generation is more westernized (you should see some of their malls) so there is opportunity if we play the long game well.

Bottom-line. I suspect there'll be a new PM elected, there'll be a push to reduce the military from politics, and there'll be another military coup in the next 2-3 years.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

How trustworthy is that election going to be?

I guess a run-off isn't a bad thing. My guess is Erdogan will win it eventually

With 97.95% of votes counted, state-run Anadolu news agency reported Erdogan had 49.34% of votes, compared to 44.99% for his main opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu – meaning neither could claim an outright win.

But this guy could be the linchpin

Sinan Ogan, the unexpected kingmaker in Turkey's presidential election

Sinan Ogan, the unexpected kingmaker in Turkey's presidential election

The leader of a small ultranationalist party won 5.3% of the vote in the first round, and could help tip the scale in the runoff.

His conditions are below.

what his conditions were: "What I want is clear, it is the departure of the Syrians. All refugees must return home. I will vote for the candidate who agrees with this and puts this policy into practice."

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

In addition to Turkiye, Thailand is also having elections on Sunday.

Not near as strategic as Turkiye for the US but of interest to me. I've got friends there and I know many Thais are tired of the military backed government. And also of the current King, a former playboy living in Europe until his revered father died. He returned home with a lot of baggage and is not highly regarded at all.

13 successful coups. But most recent ones have been relatively bloodless, the PMs are exiled. The monarchy is above it all and is (or was) seen as a stabilizing force. The military has its hands in many things and makes plenty of money. There's a fine balancing act between the politicians and military.

Thailand is fairly neutral. Probably won't come under the sway of China nor the US anytime soon. But the younger generation is more westernized (you should see some of their malls) so there is opportunity if we play the long game well.

Bottom-line. I suspect there'll be a new PM elected, there'll be a push to reduce the military from politics, and there'll be another military coup in the next 2-3 years.

Congrats to Thailand. The 2 main opposition parties are supposed to join together in a coalition and propose their PM. It's not a done deal though, we'll have to see what the General-turned-PM will do.

[Edward64]

I agree with this. It shouldn't just be FL but (hopefully coming soon) all of US.

And it shouldn't just be China or the list below, we should mirror the other countries' policies for residential property (e.g. not being able to own land vs condo, similar approval processes & restrictions etc.). Ultimately, negotiate to an acceptable set of policies for both countries because it's too way one-sided right now.

Yeah, real estate prices in hot areas are going to get hit, but eventually there'll be an equilibrium.

Chinese citizens sue Florida over law barring them from owning houses - POLITICO

A group of Chinese citizens who live and work in Florida are suing the state over a new property law that threatens to restrict some people from China and a handful of other countries from purchasing homes and land in the state.

I doubt it'll stoke racial biases significantly more than what was already there against Chinese Americans. But against Chinese non-Americans, sure. Same situation as in Americans in China.

The plaintiffs allege that the law, SB 264, is discriminatory and that it stokes racial biases against Chinese Americans and undermines their financial freedom. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed it into law and it is set to go into effect on July 1.

Below says the proposal is not US citizens but prob should say "or Permanent Residents".

It bars Chinese citizens who are not United States citizens from purchasing homes in Florida, with few exceptions. It imposes similar but less stringent restrictions on citizens of Cuba, Venezuela, Syria, Iran, Russia and North Korea.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I guess a run-off isn't a bad thing. My guess is Erdogan will win it eventually
:
But this guy could be the linchpin

His conditions are below.

Not good for the Erdogan's opponent (or Sweden).

ErdoÄŸan wins support from Turkey’s election ‘kingmaker’ – POLITICO

Erdoğan wins support from Turkey’s election ‘kingmaker’

Sinan Oğan’s endorsement pushes Turkish president closer to second round victory on Sunday.

[GrantDawg]

I think he was likely to win anyway. All he has to do is not lose any support he had, and gain like .5 percent of the rest of the voters. His opponent has a much larger mountain to climb. Which is probably why this "Kingmaker" guy endorsed him. Better to support the winner than lose.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I think he was likely to win anyway. All he has to do is not lose any support he had, and gain like .5 percent of the rest of the voters. His opponent has a much larger mountain to climb. Which is probably why this "Kingmaker" guy endorsed him. Better to support the winner than lose.

Per wiki, registered turnout for first round was 87%. Assuming there was no large-scale fraud (and I've not read about it), that is pretty damn impressive.

Think you are right. Not a lot to work with for the theoretically remaining 13%.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I agree with this. It shouldn't just be FL but (hopefully coming soon) all of US.

And it shouldn't just be China or the list below, we should mirror the other countries' policies for residential property (e.g. not being able to own land vs condo, similar approval processes & restrictions etc.). Ultimately, negotiate to an acceptable set of policies for both countries because it's too way one-sided right now.

Yeah, real estate prices in hot areas are going to get hit, but eventually there'll be an equilibrium.

Chinese citizens sue Florida over law barring them from owning houses - POLITICO

I doubt it'll stoke racial biases significantly more than what was already there against Chinese Americans. But against Chinese non-Americans, sure. Same situation as in Americans in China.


Below says the proposal is not US citizens but prob should say "or Permanent Residents".

First off, to be clear, the bottom part does not include lawful permanent resident as well as U.S. citizens. That is a positive.

I will ask these two questions as delicately as I possibly can given how we have done this sort of thing historically.

Who is responsible and what methods will they be using to verify that those Asian looking people are or are not under the influence of the Chinese Communist party?

What is the penalty for the entity I assume is not under the influence of the Chinese Communist party who owns the property when they decide that all American dollars spend so they knowingly, unknowingly, but let's be serious knowingly sell to someone under the influence of the Chinese Communist party because they have the highest bid?

Hang on, I got one more. Is the selling entity required to return the funds back to a buyer who is determined to be under the influence of the Chinese Communist party after the fact or does the buyer just happen to lose those funds which will allow the seller to keep the funds and sell the property to someone else?

[Edward64]

I will ask these two questions as delicately as I possibly can given how we have done this sort of thing historically.

Straight up questions are fine, no need to be delicate. Just don't be accusatory or sarcastic (like others, not you specifically) before mis/understanding what I'm saying. So I appreciate you asking in a straight forward manner like you are to clarify/question my position.

Who is responsible and what methods will they be using to verify that those Asian looking people are or are not under the influence of the Chinese Communist party?

I don't understand your question?

It's not a matter if Asian people are under the influence of the Chinese Communist party. The distinction is if the Asian buying (and owns) the property is a US Citizen/PR or a Chinese citizen. If it's a US Citizen that belongs to a communist party, no biggie, free country etc.

There will be situations where a person could be a dual-citizen of US and China (that's different topic which I've made my feelings known). I'm not sure what DeSantis is proposing in that situation but US citizen is the key and supersedes being a US/Chinese dual-citizen.

To reiterate - I am proposing that we apply whatever restrictions the other country imposes on US citizen in buying residential property in that country (e.g. not just China).

What is the penalty for the entity I assume is not under the influence of the Chinese Communist party who owns the property when they decide that all American dollars spend so they knowingly, unknowingly, but let's be serious knowingly sell to someone under the influence of the Chinese Communist party because they have the highest bid?

See above. Belonging to Communist party is not the driver. It's whether one is a US Citizen or PR.

Hang on, I got one more. Is the selling entity required to return the funds back to a buyer who is determined to be under the influence of the Chinese Communist party after the fact or does the buyer just happen to lose those funds which will allow the seller to keep the funds and sell the property to someone else?

See above. Belonging to Communist party is not the driver. It's whether one is a US Citizen or PR.

Question to you:

Do you believe Chinese citizens (not dual US-Chinese citizen) should be allowed to buy and own residential property in the US? In China, I can buy property but I don't own it (e.g. it's a long term lease like 70 years).

(Plenty of other countries have similar or other restrictions to prevent owning land and/or house)

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Straight up questions are fine, no need to be delicate. Just don't be accusatory or sarcastic (like others, not you specifically) before mis/understanding what I'm saying. So I appreciate you asking in a straight forward manner like you are to clarify/question my position.


I don't understand your question?

It's not a matter if Asian people are under the influence of the Chinese Communist party. The distinction is if the Asian buying (and owns) the property is a US Citizen/PR or a Chinese citizen. If it's a US Citizen that belongs to a communist party, no biggie, free country etc.

Not according the the Governor.

DeSantis signs Florida crackdown on foreign property; Chinese groups worried

"Today is one example of Florida really leading the nation in terms of what we're doing to stop the influence of the Chinese Communist party," DeSantis said at Monday press conference in Hernando County.

So if I take him at his word (dangerous I know), the influence of the Chinese Communist Party is front and center with this bill. Maybe he is also interested in getting Americans in China the ability to buy real property and farmland there but I have not seen any evidence of that yet.

Re:my question

In its final form, the bill prevents the foreign countries of concern and their officers from buying farmland as well as property within 10 miles of a military installation or critical infrastructure facility.

And no one connected with the Chinese government or the CCP is allowed to purchase real estate in Florida under the bill, nor can anyone who is "domiciled" in China and not a United States citizen or lawful permanent resident.

So again, using the above language this time, who determines who is an "officer" of one of these foreign countries of concern and who is "connected" with the Chinese government or the CCP? Actually the words "connect" or connected is not even in the bill. Here is the actual text from the final bill that was signed into law.

692.204 Purchase or acquisition of real property by the People’s Republic
of China prohibited.—

(1)(a) The following persons or entities may not directly or indirectly
own, have a controlling interest in, or acquire by purchase, grant, devise, or
descent any interest, except a de minimus indirect interest, in real property
in this state:

1. The People’s Republic of China, the Chinese Communist Party, or any
official or member of the People’s Republic of China or the Chinese
Communist Party.

2. Any other political party or member of a political party or a
subdivision of a political party in the People’s Republic of China.

3. A partnership, an association, a corporation, an organization, or any
other combination of persons organized under the laws of or having its
principal place of business in the People’s Republic of China, or a subsidiary
of such entity.

4. Any person who is domiciled in the People’s Republic of China and who
is not a citizen or lawful permanent resident of the United States.

5. Any person, entity, or collection of persons or entities described in
subparagraphs 1. through 4. having a controlling interest in a partnership,
association, corporation, organization, trust, or any other legal entity or
subsidiary formed for the purpose of owning real property in this state

FYI "citizen or lawful permanent resident of the United States" only appears twice in the bill. Above and in the section that defines "Foreign Principal". After reading the bill that was signed into law, I am no longer sure if that actually allows citizenship or lawful permanent residency to override being part of the groups described above. That is a separate issue.

Upon reading the bill, I actually have the answers I was looking for in my previous post.

Who is responsible and what methods will they be using to verify that those Asian looking people are or are not under the influence of the Chinese Communist party?

The buyer is required to sign an affidavit saying that they are not a part of any of the groups above. The Department of Economic Opportunity can initiate a civil suit to see if they believe the affidavit is false. Nothing in the bill to describe how the state will prove their case.

What is the penalty for the entity I assume is not under the influence of the Chinese Communist party who owns the property when they decide that all American dollars spend so they knowingly, unknowingly, but let's be serious knowingly sell to someone under the influence of the Chinese Communist party because they have the highest bid?

From the bill

9) A person who knowingly sells real property or any interest therein in violation of this section commits a misdemeanor of the first degree, punishable as provided in s. 775.082 or s. 775.083.

And finally,

Is the selling entity required to return the funds back to a buyer who is determined to be under the influence of the Chinese Communist party after the fact or does the buyer just happen to lose those funds which will allow the seller to keep the funds and sell the property to someone else?

The answer is a little bit...maybe.

(d) If the court finds that the real property, or any portion thereof, is
owned or held in violation of this section, the court must enter a final
judgment of forfeiture vesting title to the real property in this state, subject
only to the rights and interests of bona fide lienholders, and such final
judgment relates back to the date of the lis pendens.

(e) The department may sell the real property subject to a final judgment
of forfeiture. Any proceeds from the sale must first be paid to any lienholders
of the land, followed by payment of any outstanding fines assessed pursuant
to this section, after which the department must be reimbursed for all costs
related to the forfeiture civil action and any costs related to the sale of the
land. Any remaining proceeds must be paid to the property owner

Question to you:

Do you believe Chinese citizens (not dual US-Chinese citizen) should be allowed to buy and own residential property in the US? In China, I can buy property but I don't own it (e.g. it's a long term lease like 70 years).

(Plenty of other countries have similar or other restrictions to prevent owning land and/or house)

Am I allowing Chinese citizens to legally come into the country, legally working, legally owning businesses here, and legally pay taxes here? If so then yes, they should be allowed to buy real property and farmland here. I am not sure what the benefit is of limiting property ownership of Chinese citizens in America because the Chinese government limits property ownership to American citizens. If the citizens from the other "foreign countries of concern" as defined in the law (Russia, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, the Venezuelan regime of Nicolás Maduro(?) and the Syrian Arab Republic) are allowed to buy and own residential property, I would need to see a lot more for me to prevent Chinese citizens from doing the same.Are we committed to this capitalism or are we not?

[Edward64]

Based on your statement

FYI "citizen or lawful permanent resident of the United States" only appears twice in the bill. Above and in the section that defines "Foreign Principal". After reading the bill that was signed into law, I am no longer sure if that actually allows citizenship or lawful permanent residency to override being part of the groups described above.
:
That is a separate issue.

You state this is a "separate issue" (not sure if I got the context right) but I don't think it is a separate issue. It's actually central to my position and believe it pertinent on how I answer your other follow-up questions.

So before I respond further, can you confirm the below? Just so we level set and create a baseline that is, at least to me, central to my position.

I am saying the bill applies to non-American Chinese (e.g. foreign principals) and not US citizens/PR of Chinese descent. I think you are saying the bill, as written, does not only apply to non-American Chinese but also does/may apply to US citizens/PR of Chinese descent. Is this correct?

[flere-imsaho]

There are plenty of countries that prohibit or restrict foreigners from owning property, for a range of reasons ranging from the somewhat-understandable to the downright-xenophobic, so the idea of restricting ownership isn't, on its face, crazy.

But since it's Ron DeSantis, my guess is that he's selling a favor for his backers (probably developers who want to building housing on former farmland but keep getting outbid by foreigners, or simply don't like the higher prices) by wrapping it in his usual racist and bigoted spiel.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

There are plenty of countries that prohibit or restrict foreigners from owning property, for a range of reasons ranging from the somewhat-understandable to the downright-xenophobic, so the idea of restricting ownership isn't, on its face, crazy.

But since it's Ron DeSantis, my guess is that he's selling a favor for his backers (probably developers who want to building housing on former farmland but keep getting outbid by foreigners, or simply don't like the higher prices) by wrapping it in his usual racist and bigoted spiel.

As with the "Don't Say Gay" bill, I do not deny there is a political calculus at play to enhance his political ambitions. There clearly is.

There may be some nuances of the bill (which miami_fan will challenge me on) that I disagree with, but the overall generally intent (assuming it does not apply to US citizens/PR) in restricting foreign ownership of US residences (if US citizens/PR are similarly restricted in that country), I agree with.

In other words, if US citizens cannot buy (and own) land/residences in country A, we should apply similar restrictions to country A citizens in owning land/residences in the US.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Based on your statement



You state this is a "separate issue" (not sure if I got the context right) but I don't think it is a separate issue. It's actually central to my position and believe it pertinent on how I answer your other follow-up questions.

So before I respond further, can you confirm the below? Just so we level set and create a baseline that is, at least to me, central to my position.

I am saying the bill applies to non-American Chinese (e.g. foreign principals) and not US citizens/PR. I think you are saying the bill, as written, does not only apply to non-American Chinese but also does/may apply to US citizens/PR of Chinese descent. Is this correct?

There is nothing in the bill that I saw that says you can fit into categories 1,2,3, or 5 and be allowed to purchase and/or own real property if you are a U.S. citizen. The only distinction in this bill is category 4 that allows for US citizens/permanent residents that live in China. Does the fact that this individual is U.S. citizen and lives in China override the fact that he or she works for a company whose primary place of business is in China? It seems clear that a Chinese national who is a member of the CCP and has businesses in China and the U.S. cannot buy property here. Can his Canadian born wife that has American citizenship make those purchases instead? I don't know that for sure. I would lean to saying no because she would fit into the third category despite her American citizenship but she also is not of Chinese decent. That would be a pretty big loophole if she could.

Here is the link to the bill if you want to take a look.

https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bil...illText/er/PDF

One thing I can say for sure, this is not meant to be a tit for tat around allowing Americans to own residential property in China.

EDIT: I would argue that DeSantis would prefer Americans be banned from buying residential property China so they would turn that investment to the home-front.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

There are plenty of countries that prohibit or restrict foreigners from owning property, for a range of reasons ranging from the somewhat-understandable to the downright-xenophobic, so the idea of restricting ownership isn't, on its face, crazy.

But since it's Ron DeSantis, my guess is that he's selling a favor for his backers (probably developers who want to building housing on former farmland but keep getting outbid by foreigners, or simply don't like the higher prices) by wrapping it in his usual racist and bigoted spiel.

Yep, there certainly are good reasons at times: In drought-stricken Arizona, fresh scrutiny of Saudi Arabia-owned farm’s water use | PBS NewsHour

But yeah, where DeSantis is concerned I do wonder about motives.

(Also yes to other countries doing this -- my dad is not actually allowed to own "his" house in Thailand, for instance.)

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

There is nothing in the bill that I saw that says you can fit into categories 1,2,3, or 5 and be allowed to purchase and/or own real property if you are a U.S. citizen. The only distinction in this bill is category 4 that allows for US citizens/permanent residents that live in China. Does the fact that this individual is U.S. citizen and lives in China override the fact that he or she works for a company whose primary place of business is in China? It seems clear that a Chinese national who is a member of the CCP and has businesses in China and the U.S. cannot buy property here. Can his Canadian born wife that has American citizenship make those purchases instead? I don't know that for sure. I would lean to saying no because she would fit into the third category despite her American citizenship but she also is not of Chinese decent. That would be a pretty big loophole if she could.

Here is the link to the bill if you want to take a look.

https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bil...illText/er/PDF

I actually did look through the pdf earlier and I'll be the first to admit that, not being an attorney, there's too much legalese in there (e.g. more than in the "Don't Say Gay bill") and know there are nuances that I cannot discuss intelligently about. I didn't understand near all of it (e.g. WTF is "de minimus indirect interest").

However, to bring it into layman's terms, I looked at:

https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bil...ab=BillHistory (see View Bill Summary to the left)

With respect to conveyances of real property in this state, the bill generally:

• Prohibits foreign principals from owning or acquiring agricultural land in the state.
• Prohibits foreign principals from owning or acquiring any interest in real property within 10 miles of any military installation or critical infrastructure in the state.
• Prohibits China, Chinese Communist Party or other Chinese political party officials or members, Chinese business organizations, and persons domiciled in China, but who are not citizens or lawful permanent residents of the U.S., from purchasing or acquiring any interest in real property in the state.
• Provides limited exceptions from the ownership restrictions for the purchase of one residential property that is not on or within 5 miles of any military installation in the state.

You can see it talks about "foreign principals" and third bullet is pretty clear it is talking about non-citizens/PR.

In addition, I looked at an Axios article (which I believe is pretty reputable), which states below

Just a moment...

Driving the news: The four plaintiffs argue in a lawsuit filed Monday that the legislation restricting people from China and six other countries from buying homes and land in the state is both unconstitutional and in violation of the Fair Housing Act.

The law, SB 264, "imposes especially draconian restrictions on people from China," as people from this country who aren't U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents will be barred from owning Florida property altogether, per the lawsuit.

The article also references ACLU and Asian American Legal Defense Fund getting involved. There is no mention that they believe this proposal applies to US Citizens/PR.

So in summary - if your contention still is this applies to US citizens/PR of Chinese descent, I will avoid discussing this further as it's central to my POV that it does not. And I cannot see a way to convince you otherwise. If you are right, I agree this proposal is really bad and in all likelihood IMO, the courts will overturn it (e.g. courts are good to finetune vagaries in a bill, we are a lawsuit happy country).

However, if we can agree this does not apply to US citizens/PR, I'll be glad to continue the discussion.