NFL Week 11 Thread - NFC Powerhouses Square off on MNF

[Apathetic Lurker]

He is...Baltimore D is even slower...No traction for their walkers and wheelchairs on grass .

[Julio Riddols]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

How can you ignore a team being seven or eight wins better than they were the prior season when evaluating a rookie QB?

This didn't help Dalton win ROY last season. I know it wasn't 7 or 8 wins, but if we're considering the improvement over expectations.. Cinci was expected to be a 1 or 2 win team last year. I expected the Colts to be something like 6-10 this season.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

This didn't help Dalton win ROY last season.

Well, Cam was involved.

[Julio Riddols]

Originally Posted by Matthean

Well, Cam was involved.

That's why I think Griffin gets it this season. He is head and shoulders better than Newton was last year. It is a very comparable scenario, actually. Luck and Griffin are like a more talented version of Dalton and Newton.

[larrymcg421]

QB1: 1 Att, 1 Comp, 1 Yard, 1 TD, 0 INT
QB2: 1 Att, 1 Comp, 98 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

QB Rating sees these two QB's as exactly the same.

QB1: Completes a 2 yard pass on 3rd and 10.
QB2: Completes a 2 yard pass on 3rd and 1.

These plays have equal value in QB rating.

Discrepancies like this are what Football Outsiders (and ESPN's new QB Rating system, which has Luck 4th) seek to fix.

Also, if someone has a weaker running game and is thus forced into more 3rd and long situations, FO's system corrects for this by comparing the player to other QB's in similar situations. So if QB1 is in 100 3rd and 8 situations and QB2 is in 50 3rd and 8 situations, but they perform the same on average in those situations, they would be considered the same in FO, but QBR would more likely penalize QB1.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Radii

Carolina is so bad. Oh well, wins just mean a worse lower draft pick now.

We'll find a way to screw that up; don't worry.

[Julio Riddols]

I think the only 2 stats that matter when evaluating a QB from a passing standpoint are YPA and INT%. TDs are largely influenced by the rest of the team, as are wins. I think it is really as simple as taking YPA-INT% regarding someone's passing efficiency. This doesn't take into account any type of running, and requires a large sample size, but I think it is probably the best way to evaluate the true worth of a QB from a strictly throwing perspective.

Taking the numbers from the end of last week, these are the top 10 QB's with 200 or more attempts-

Brady 6.6
Freeman 6.5
Griffin III 6.5
P. Manning 6.4
Rodgers 5.9
Ryan 5.9
Roethlisberger 5.9
A. Smith 5.7
Brees 5.2
Flacco 5.2
Schaub 5.1

That actually seems about right to me.

2011 top 10:

1. Rodgers 8.0
2. Brady 6.6
3. Schaub 6.4
4. Brees 6.2
5. Romo 6.1
6. A. Smith 6.0
7. E. Manning 5.7
8. Flacco 5.5
9. Ryan 5.3
10. Cutler 5.2
Stafford 5.2
Roethlisberger 5.2

Romo and Cutler's teams were the only two of the above to miss the post season, but both were in the hunt til the end. I don't think anyone would argue too hard that Denver (8-8) made the playoffs mostly due to being incredibly lucky, and that Cinci (9-7) made the playoffs mostly due to their really weak schedule. The rest were legit contenders. I wouldn't be surprised if 2012 ends up about the same.

in 2010, 7 of the top 10 made the postseason. Of the 3 that didn't, the Chargers went 9-7 after starting 2-5 and were considered the most dangerous team not to make the playoffs, and the Broncos and Texans defenses were in the bottom 4 in both points and yards allowed.

[molson]

It looks like Gronkowski has a broken forearm, out 4-6 weeks. I think it'll be tough for the Pats to pass the Broncos for a bye at this point with Denver's schedule coming up whether Gronk plays or not, so if he's back healthy for the playoffs, then it's not a huge disaster, they can certainly score points and win the East without him.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by molson

It looks like Gronkowski has a broken forearm, out 4-6 weeks. I think it'll be tough for the Pats to pass the Broncos for a bye at this point with Denver's schedule coming up whether Gronk plays or not, so if he's back healthy for the playoffs, then it's not a huge disaster, they can certainly score points and win the East without him.

I wouldn't be suprised if Hernandez misses the Jets game. It will be interesting to see what formations they run. I would love to see them run the old school two back formation with Vereen and Ridley.

[Swaggs]

Byron Leftwich throws a beautiful ball...

...to the wrong team.

[Danny]

Pitt is in some trouble here for the season until they get Big Ben back

[Suburban Rhythm]

Originally Posted by Danny

Pitt is in some trouble here for the season until they get Big Ben back

While they aren't great without Roethlisberger, keep in mind they're also without their #1 WR and defensive playmaker. Along with Indy, they're one of the two wildcards. SD and the rest of that mess below .500 aren't too worrisome.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Suburban Rhythm

While they aren't great without Roethlisberger, keep in mind they're also without their #1 WR and defensive playmaker. Along with Indy, they're one of the two wildcards. SD and the rest of that mess below .500 aren't too worrisome.

Cincinnati's next four opponents are all under .500. Don't discount them yet.

[stevew]

Brown isn't the #1 WR, he has something like 2 TDs in the last 2 years. Anyways, looking forward to seeing Harrison, Mendenhall, polamalu and hopefully Tomlin(I'm dreaming) all gone this off-season

[jbergey22]

Why would you want Tomlin gone?

[Suburban Rhythm]

Originally Posted by stevew

Brown isn't the #1 WR, he has something like 2 TDs in the last 2 years. Anyways, looking forward to seeing Harrison, Mendenhall, polamalu and hopefully Tomlin(I'm dreaming) all gone this off-season

If there's a better option than Tomlin available, sure. Curious who that is though.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Danny

Do those numbers take into account rushing by a QB?

Yes they do.

I can tell you a huge reason the QB's are ranked the way they are in the advanced stats.

3rd down conversions.

Heading into the Jacksonville game the Colts were the best team in the league converting first downs from 3rd and 6 or more. (over 40%)

As of the November 7th, here is first down conversions for the three QB;s:

Luck - 44 of 99 (44%)
Griffin - 23 of 78 (29%)
Wilson - 27 of 83 (33%)

Total yards per game - Indy 7th, Skins 9th, Seattle 26th.

To me, this is only between two guys. Wilson is a result of the Seahawks defense and running game. Griffin and Luck are asked to do more.

Luck is asked to do A LOT more. Griffin has thrown the ball over 30 times in a game 4 times and has not hit the 40 pass attempt mark. Luck has thrown it over 30 on 8 different occasions. He's thrown it over 40 times on 6 different occasions. He's thrown it over 50 times twice.

Schedules are about the same, though Luck has faced two top 10 pass defenses, Griffin one. (the one Griffin faced, he did very poor by the way, not completing 50% of his passes)

I'm not going to argue too much over someone making the case for Griffin over Luck. For my money Luck has been the better QB, but Griffin is playing very good football. I think when you look at the third down conversion rates, it shows how much Luck is asked to do compared to the other two. One guy is asked to act like a top ten QB and not only throw it on third down, but also to convert long third downs. The other two are asked not to screw up.

If rating is everything and Luck starts to slip, we'll know it soon enough.Here are the finishing schedules:

Luck - Texans x2, vs. Buffalo, @Detroit, vs. Titans, @KC
Griffin - Cowboys x2, vs. Giants, vs. Ravens, @ Cleveland, @Eagles

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by stevew

Brown isn't the #1 WR, he has something like 2 TDs in the last 2 years. Anyways, looking forward to seeing Harrison, Mendenhall, polamalu and hopefully Tomlin(I'm dreaming) all gone this off-season

Holy crap, you'd better keep Tomlin. he's a terrific coach. One of my favorites in the game.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by molson

It looks like Gronkowski has a broken forearm, out 4-6 weeks. I think it'll be tough for the Pats to pass the Broncos for a bye at this point with Denver's schedule coming up whether Gronk plays or not, so if he's back healthy for the playoffs, then it's not a huge disaster, they can certainly score points and win the East without him.

Yeah...yikes. On a PAT too no less. Sucks.

[stevew]

It's hilarious that you guys think Tomlin is a good coach. 4 years of losing and playing down to inferior competition. Horrific strategic moves with timeouts and challenges.

[Danny]

Andy Reid is pretty close by, you can pck him up

[stevew]

Oh god no.

[chadritt]

Originally Posted by stevew

It's hilarious that you guys think Tomlin is a good coach. 4 years of losing and playing down to inferior competition. Horrific strategic moves with timeouts and challenges.

Hes made the playoffs 4 times in 5 years, the superbowl twice, and won it all once. You have seriously high standards if you dont think thats good.

[Julio Riddols]

The only thing Tomlin hasn't done well in my opinion is draft. Other than WRs and Pouncey, he hasn't done so well. He masterfully motivates a team that is supposed to have been on the decline for years and has never had a losing season with them, only missing the playoffs once. To me, I can't tell the difference between him and Cowher as far as his overall quality of coaching goes.

[Suburban Rhythm]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

The only thing Tomlin hasn't done well in my opinion is draft. Other than WRs and Pouncey, he hasn't done so well. He masterfully motivates a team that is supposed to have been on the decline for years and has never had a losing season with them, only missing the playoffs once. To me, I can't tell the difference between him and Cowher as far as his overall quality of coaching goes.

Pretty funny you should mention Cowher.

Peter King's MMQB last week had a comparison of where each guy stood when they hit their 60th win. Not 100% on these numbers, but you'll get the point.

Cowher 60-30, 4-5 in the playoffs, 0-1 in the Super Bowl.

Tomlin 60-28, 6-4, 1-1

Alot of Pittsburgh loves to point to Tomlin winning "with Cowher's players". It so simple, it's why Cowher only did it once.

[Julio Riddols]

He's just the perfect guy to coach the Steelers, IMO. His whole personality just feels like the Steeler personality.

[Jas_lov]

Unless Sean Peyton becomes available who is out there better than Tomlin? Dungy doesn't want to coach. Gruden is a clown on MNF. Cowher didn't win any more than Tomlin. Coughlin, Tomlin, Peyton, McCarthy, Bellichick. Those are the only Superbowl coaches in the game. It's hard to win in this league so to put it all on Tomlin, when he actually has won, doesn't make any sense.

[Suburban Rhythm]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Unless Sean Peyton becomes available who is out there better than Tomlin? Dungy doesn't want to coach. Gruden is a clown on MNF. Cowher didn't win any more than Tomlin. Coughlin, Tomlin, Peyton, McCarthy, Bellichick. Those are the only Superbowl coaches in the game. It's hard to win in this league so to put it all on Tomlin, when he actually has won, doesn't make any sense.

Funny how it works, 5 seasons ago Coughlin was horrible, and soon to be out of a job. Then a genius. Now trending towards horrible again.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Suburban Rhythm

Funny how it works, 5 seasons ago Coughlin was horrible, and soon to be out of a job. Then a genius. Now trending towards horrible again.

That's because people are what have you done for me lately idiots. Coughlin has always been a very good coach.

[Danny]

But apparently Coughlin and Tomlin are morons because their teams are only 6-4 lol.

Teams should hire Romeo Crennel as a traveling coach. He'll coach your team for a week and then boom you will then appreciate the guy you have.

[Danny]

Heck, Crennel, Mangini, Weis and Mcdaniels could start a business together doing that.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Luck is clearly going to be a good player. I don't understand all the rookie of the year talk based on his stats to-date though. RG III and Wilson are both superior.

NO ONE DENIES that Luck will be a good player, but I completely agree those announcers today were a little over the top. Even when he made terrible, "rookie" mistakes like the pick to Dennard that was thrown 4 feet behind his receiver they were praising him. If it had been Blaine Gabbert or Ryan Tannehill making those throws they would have been all over him, but they were completely giving Luck a pass today even though he was having a poor game.

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Justin Blackmon is not.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by stevew

It's hilarious that you guys think Tomlin is a good coach. 4 years of losing and playing down to inferior competition. Horrific strategic moves with timeouts and challenges.

2007 - 10-6, division winner
2008 - 12-4 Super Bowl Title
2009 - 9-7 with all 7 losses being by a TD or less
2010 - 12-4 (loss in Super Bowl)
2011 - 12-4 (loss in Wild Card game)
2012 - 6-4


Only 7 times have the Steelers been beaten by 10 or more points in in over 5 1/2 years. The Broncos have 27 losses by 10 or more during the same period. The Pats have 6 losses by double digits in the period and that included a 16-0 season.

Sorry man, but I'll take those numbers any day of the week and twice on Sunday. His teams are prepared, he gets teams to the Super Bowl, conducts himself with class and he's only 40.

If he hit the market, he would be out about 2 minutes before a bidding war would start. That's all you need to know about how good your head coach is.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Yes they do.

I can tell you a huge reason the QB's are ranked the way they are in the advanced stats.

3rd down conversions.

Heading into the Jacksonville game the Colts were the best team in the league converting first downs from 3rd and 6 or more. (over 40%)

As of the November 7th, here is first down conversions for the three QB;s:

Luck - 44 of 99 (44%)
Griffin - 23 of 78 (29%)
Wilson - 27 of 83 (33%)

Total yards per game - Indy 7th, Skins 9th, Seattle 26th.

To me, this is only between two guys. Wilson is a result of the Seahawks defense and running game. Griffin and Luck are asked to do more.

Luck is asked to do A LOT more. Griffin has thrown the ball over 30 times in a game 4 times and has not hit the 40 pass attempt mark. Luck has thrown it over 30 on 8 different occasions. He's thrown it over 40 times on 6 different occasions. He's thrown it over 50 times twice.

Schedules are about the same, though Luck has faced two top 10 pass defenses, Griffin one. (the one Griffin faced, he did very poor by the way, not completing 50% of his passes)

I'm not going to argue too much over someone making the case for Griffin over Luck. For my money Luck has been the better QB, but Griffin is playing very good football. I think when you look at the third down conversion rates, it shows how much Luck is asked to do compared to the other two. One guy is asked to act like a top ten QB and not only throw it on third down, but also to convert long third downs. The other two are asked not to screw up.

If rating is everything and Luck starts to slip, we'll know it soon enough.Here are the finishing schedules:

Luck - Texans x2, vs. Buffalo, @Detroit, vs. Titans, @KC
Griffin - Cowboys x2, vs. Giants, vs. Ravens, @ Cleveland, @Eagles

You crack me up. So complicated. Luck has been fine for a rookie. In no way is he close to rg III or Wilson. If he was drafted where Wilson was this wouldn't even be an argument.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Yeah...yikes. On a PAT too no less. Sucks.

Going for a 59th point with four minutes left. Belichek is so stupid sometimes.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

The only thing Tomlin hasn't done well in my opinion is draft. Other than WRs and Pouncey, he hasn't done so well. He masterfully motivates a team that is supposed to have been on the decline for years and has never had a losing season with them, only missing the playoffs once. To me, I can't tell the difference between him and Cowher as far as his overall quality of coaching goes.

...and Tomlin doesn't even draft the players. I'm pretty sure the Steelers maintain the coach-GM division of labor. I think Kevin Colbert is GM?

[Logan]

Alex Smith ruled out for tonight.

[Suburban Rhythm]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

...and Tomlin doesn't even draft the players. I'm pretty sure the Steelers maintain the coach-GM division of labor. I think Kevin Colbert is GM?

Yes Colbert is the GM, and has final say, but I think Tomlin has some input, as Cowher did.

[Suburban Rhythm]

Originally Posted by Suburban Rhythm

Pretty funny you should mention Cowher.

Peter King's MMQB last week had a comparison of where each guy stood when they hit their 60th win. Not 100% on these numbers, but you'll get the point.

Cowher 60-30, 4-5 in the playoffs, 0-1 in the Super Bowl.

Tomlin 60-28, 6-4, 1-1

Alot of Pittsburgh loves to point to Tomlin winning "with Cowher's players". It so simple, it's why Cowher only did it once.

For anyone interested, from last weeks MMQB

49ers-Rams tie; more Week 10 thoughts - Peter King - SI.com

The Pro Football Hall of Fame's 44 selectors just finished voting to winnow the list of 127 preliminary nominees for the Hall of Fame's Class of 2013 down to 25. On that list of 127 names was coach Bill Cowher, former coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think it's a good time, in the middle of current Steelers coach Mike Tomlin's sixth season, to compare him to Cowher. Their careers are similar, with Tomlin having a slight edge.

I used the 60th victory of each man's regularseason career, which Tomlin achieved last week against the Giants, as the line of demarcation. How each man fared at the time of that 60th victory is in the table to the right.

Cowher won a Super Bowl in his 14th season and coached 15 years. The way Tomlin has begun his career, and with the Steelers such a consistent organization, there's no reason to think he won't follow in Cowher's career footsteps -- and perhaps even eclipse what his predecessor did.

Cowher 60-30 , Playoffs: 4-5 , SB: 1-1
Tomlin 60-28 , Playoffs: 5-3, SB: 1-1

Not sure why he's crediting Cowher with the SB win there, which happened about 10 years after his 60th win.

[Scoobz0202]

Originally Posted by Suburban Rhythm

Funny how it works, 5 seasons ago Coughlin was horrible, and soon to be out of a job. Then a genius. Now trending towards horrible again.

I'm pretty sure people were calling for his head in the middle of last season, too. Not sure if it was on here, but I definitely heard it.

[Sun Tzu]

Originally Posted by Logan

Alex Smith ruled out for tonight.

This one hurts. I would be very surprised if the Chicago defense didn't completely light up Colin Kaepernick.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

I'm pretty sure people were calling for his head in the middle of last season, too. Not sure if it was on here, but I definitely heard it.

I'll fully admit I was questioning him last year but once the team got healthy and gelled obviously he was able to bring the team together.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I would like to thank the Chargers for stupidly running the ball with 1:40 left and wasting a time out in doing it. By not have that time out, the Broncos without their running game can allow the clock to slide all the way down to 30 seconds or so instead of giving the ball back to SD with over a minute left. That really helped us out there. Thanks Norv.

Game Manager and Norv Turner are two things that will not be linked together any time soon. Plus, I've never seen so many delay of game penalties until Norv became the head coach of the Chargers.

Nail number 6 in the coffin for Norv's job in San Diego.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

This one hurts. I would be very surprised if the Chicago defense didn't completely light up Colin Kaepernick.

Time to update the thread title to Backup QB's square off on MNF

[Passacaglia]

No mention of Romo's clutchiness? Spot him 50 yards in penalties, and he's your guy to get your team that game-tying FG (as long as someone on your team recovers that fumble).

I also thought it was funny that the announcers were going on about how great it was that Nick Fairley showed such restraint by not bodyslamming Aaron Rodgers to the ground. True class, that guy.

[Scoobz0202]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

No mention of Romo's clutchiness? Spot him 50 yards in penalties, and he's your guy to get your team that game-tying FG (as long as someone on your team recovers that fumble).

It's not often Dallas is on the team with the fewest amount of penalties.

But props to Romo. He gets shit on when it's not his fault, might as well give him credit for something that is also out of his control.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by TroyF

If he hit the market, he would be out about 2 minutes before a bidding war would start. That's all you need to know about how good your head coach is.

He's been dumped into a situation with a legacy of winning, a structured system and has an elite QB. I bet that if the Steelers would have hired Raheem Morris, that they would have a pretty similar record.

What's with the timeout at 2:04? At 3rd and 7, they can pass or run now. Let that run the whole way down to the 2 minute mark.

And it looks like Leftwich is out at least this upcoming week, meaning that it's Charlie Batch or bust.

And the greater point is that Tomlin's teams seem to lay eggs vs some seriously inferior competition. We lost to the Raiders and Titans this year! We had to play about 65 minutes to beat the Chiefs. With an aging team it would be nice to utterly destroy some of these teams that should be defeated easily.

[BillJasper]

They're a team that's getting old with issues on the offensive line. Seems to me that many of the issues need to be laid more at the feet of Colbert than Tomlin.

Raheem Morris.

Go ahead and fire Tomlin... he won't be unemployed long. I still haven't seen you mention whose available that would be an upgrade over Tomlin?

[stevew]

Tomlin was a nobody when he was hired. I'm sure we could find another coac, it wouldn't be a big name hire.

Just for example, Bill Kollar, the Texans D-Line guy, coaches probably the best trained squad in football right now. He's having health problems, but I have a feeling he would make a great head coach. I would take a type of guy like this.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by stevew

Tomlin was a nobody when he was hired. I'm sure we could find another coac, it wouldn't be a big name hire.

Just for example, Bill Kollar, the Texans D-Line guy, coaches probably the best trained squad in football right now. He's having health problems, but I have a feeling he would make a great head coach. I would take a type of guy like this.

I have no clue about that guy, was he there prior to Wade Phillips joining the team?