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View Poll Results: What would you have done? | |||
Punt | 76 | 73.08% | |
Go For It | 28 | 26.92% | |
Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll |
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11-16-2009, 04:52 PM | #101 |
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11-16-2009, 04:57 PM | #102 | |
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Nope. It's that most coaches don't have the guts or job security to do it. there is a HS coach who never punts. |
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11-16-2009, 04:58 PM | #103 | |
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Location: Minnesota
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4th and 6 is very tough to convert and since you are a percentage person you should see the difference in scoring TDs when starting at your own 20 compared to your own 35. Its quite large. |
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11-16-2009, 05:03 PM | #104 | |
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You have to be much more talented than the other team to never punt. In high school and college it might work however in the NFL where the talent margin is thin it would be a recipe for disaster. |
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11-16-2009, 05:10 PM | #105 |
High School JV
Join Date: Jun 2009
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To me this just means the coach does not trust his defense. If your defense can not stop their offense then sometimes you are better off letting your offense convert and never turning the ball over.
As a long time Steeler fan, you punt the ball and let your defense win the game.
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11-16-2009, 05:39 PM | #106 |
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11-16-2009, 05:51 PM | #107 |
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11-16-2009, 06:13 PM | #108 | |
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You really no absolutely nothing about how football is played do you? |
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11-16-2009, 06:16 PM | #109 |
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11-16-2009, 06:32 PM | #110 |
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Gritty white guys are the best players.
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11-16-2009, 06:33 PM | #111 | |
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None of which a team can have if they know their coach doesn't believe in them. All of those things are damn near as important as raw talent on the football field. THe coach, in this case beli, has to develop those traits by building faith within the ranks. He's always been one of the best at believing in his players and letting them go out and do their jobs. He just told half his team they aren't trsutworthy and he doesn't believe they can do their jobs. Belicheck may well have just ripped the heart out of his own defense. None of the extraneous stats matter. You have two options. Take a chance on a long 4th down try (anything over 1 yard is a LONG try) or you punt and pin your opponent deep and force them to make the miracle happen. Anything that even gives the colts a CHANCE to get the ball that close is just the wrong choice in that situation. 70 yards is ALWAYS better to defend than 30 yards. Going for that 4th down was just plain dumb. Though I must say it is nice to see Belichek fuck up now and then. reminds me that he's still human. |
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11-16-2009, 06:34 PM | #112 |
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Id think giving Cutler 4-5 extra plays to throw an INT is quite the advantage and look what happened FYI Field possission is pretty high up on this list of winning traits teams have. NFL statistical correlations research from TwoMinuteWarning.com Last edited by jbergey22 : 11-16-2009 at 06:36 PM. |
11-16-2009, 06:35 PM | #113 | |
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Which team do you coach again? |
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11-16-2009, 06:37 PM | #114 |
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One with 1 more win than Belicheck if we have to make that same decision again. You? |
11-16-2009, 07:17 PM | #115 |
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This is a no brainer, punt the ball, put faith in the defense to stop P.Manning.
The %'s are better for NE to come out of it winning. |
11-16-2009, 08:13 PM | #116 | |
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Look, I'm as big of a stat geek as there is. Stats are what tells me that the proper play here was to go for it. All of that said, stats don't tell the entire tale here. Before the final decision, the Colts had the ball 3 times in the final quarter: Drive one: 5 plays, 79 yards, 2:04 off the clock, 7 points. Drive two: 1 play, INT. Drive three: 6 plays, 79 yards, 1:49 off the clock, 7 points So we have a total of 12 plays, 158 yards, 14 points and under 4 minutes off the clock. On those two scoring drives, the Patriots D forced a third down ONE time. That was a third and one on the goal line of the last drive. The one INT? A simple misread between Manning and his WR. I know what the drive charts say. I also know an on fire Peyton Manning at home in Indy is going to be difficult to stop. If I have Tom Brady and a chance at winning the game with a 2 yard gain vs. stopping an on fire Manning who seems to have figured out my defense? I'll take my chances with Tommy Boy 11 out of 10 times. Last edited by TroyF : 11-16-2009 at 08:17 PM. |
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11-16-2009, 08:19 PM | #117 |
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Well now you are confusing me Troy we were talking about the 49ers/Bears game and now you are talking about the Colts/Patriots game.
Ive already moved past the Colts/Patriots game as his decision wasnt horrible and all I was really debating his the percentages people were putting in. |
11-16-2009, 08:37 PM | #118 |
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I think going for it was almost certainly the call that gave the Pats the greatest chance of winning, but if I was the coach I probably would have punted for selfish reasons so that's what I voted for. If you punt and lose no one questions the call and everyone blames the defense. If you go for it and lose everyone criticizes you and you take almost all blame for the loss. Unfortunately, Belichick is probably the only coach secure enough and with the guts to regularly make calls like that.
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11-16-2009, 08:46 PM | #119 |
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Against any other team in the NFL, it would've been a bad call. Against Manning and the Colts, it's a good call. You just cannot give the ball to Manning with two minutes left and a chance to win, especially at home.
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11-17-2009, 07:56 AM | #120 | |
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+1...very few situations (and teams) would get me to say "go for it" but these 2 teams...in that situation...I'd like to think I'd have the guts to go for it as well since I still believe it was the right call. I'm not a BB homer but I dont hate him either. I think he's probably the only Coach that can maker that call and have it fail without getting fired. He likely knows this as well...so maybe it isnt nearly as ballsy but more about the % for him. |
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11-17-2009, 08:16 AM | #121 | |||
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Quote:
From the article: Quote:
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11-17-2009, 08:58 AM | #122 |
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I'm a fan of that "go for it continuously on 4th down philosophy" and one of the biggest reasons why is because it changes how you approach 3rd down and what you can do. Having 3rd and 4th down to gain 4 yards is extremely different from just having 3rd.
That's where BB messed up, as noted by many here already. |
11-17-2009, 09:15 AM | #123 | |
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In the context between 1:00 & 2:30 left in a game...I'd be curious to see how many teams losing by 8 or less have drives that stall before midfield. Reason being (and reason for the bolded)...I dont think it is really defending 70 yards unless you are playing a below average or inept offense (i.e. they have issues with the basics...like the Browns). The nature of prevent defense "gives" them 20-35 yards until you really just come right down to defending the part of the field you'd be defending if you miss the 4th down conversion. Now, sure you dont have to play prevent defense...but there are numerous reasons that almost every team does (and I think that's an ancillary argument to have here). But against a prevent defense...above average (or elite) offenses do not (IMHO) "typically" have problems picking up the first 20-35 yards. But I'd be curious what % my presumptuous "typically" really is (you'd likely have to count for ALL offenses, then extrapolate which are above average, which is also debatable). I'd bet lots of money its better than 50%...and some money its better than 60% for all teams...and likely over 70% for top 15 offenses over a significant sample size/time period. I think it's an interesting topic, though. |
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