GroupThink 3 - Kitty Hawk, 2021

[QuikSand]

File update #1 of 2

[QuikSand]

File update #2 of 2

[QuikSand]

Some possible targets for our first round pick:

The aforementioned G Tyrell Brandon is there, and is very appealing – excellent run block potential, great affinity with the current squad leader. Possibly a reach for that position, but would be a fit at a (future) need position.

If DE is our top need spot, there are several decent-but-not-great guys available. The best pure DE is probably Malcolm Hett who looks like a solid B-grade guy in every aspect. Jermaine Gossett is more of a run-stopper, but could be pretty good, too. There are several other guys who will go with fairly early picks.

Nominally a DT, Jeffrey Benoot is a consideration, too. He’s 297 lbs and may have to stay inside, but looks like a pretty solid all-around player for the DL, who might let us move one of our current DTs to the outside.

There are linebackers all over the place, inside and out. R.J. Walters looks like a potentially dominant pass rusher, and probably the best of the outside backers. Buddy Middleton leads the class at MLB, and is likely a star in the making. Either one might be a bit undersized to play DE, but might be able to make the transition (though that is a bit risky with such a high selection, these guys probably have more upside than anyone I see listed at DE).

There are some quality CBs in the mix as well – maybe not great for our man-coverage based system, though. TE Larry Wylie would be a great addition, but I don’t know if we had considered going this early at that spot.


Caveat – I have yet to evaluate chemistry issues with any of these players other than G Brandon… so there may be some guys who have to come off the consideration list on those grounds.

[QuikSand]

CB Rickey Hanks, a pretty solid-looking corner who would certainly develop into a starter for us, is OUT due to a personality conflict with our secondary leader.

WR Carlton Jones, certainly the best wideout on the board (pretty darned good) is OUT due to a personality conflict as well.

DE Malcolm Hett is OUT, but DT Jeffrey Benoot would have an AFFINTY with DE Martin.

[Buzzbee]

Good work Quik. Thanks for taking us through that with such descriptive commentary.

[Buzzbee]

Quick positional summary:

Positions taken in the first 20 picks:

RB - 4 (14, 16, 17, & 20)
WR - 3 (all in the top ten)
DT - 2 (2nd & 4th overall)
T - 2 (3rd & 8th)
S - 2 (7 & 12)
OLB - 2 (9 & 18)
QB - 2 (13 & 15)
DE - 1 (5th)
ILB - 1 (11th)
G - 1 (19th)


Good for us since we weren't planning on taking a QB, RB, or WR early. Leaves us with a lot of options. I don't see a huge benefit of trading up. There are enough options for us, and no one dominant can't pass up player (based on what Quik has posted). I'm not opposed to forgo trading up and simming down to our pick.

How does G Brandon compare with G Fuller taken with the 19th pick? Is there a lot of depth at G? Those answers might dictate if there is going to be a run on G's, or if Brandon might slip to us in the 2nd, or if we can accept possibly losing out on Brandon for another G.

I'd like to shore up the D-Line, but am also of the belief that selecting the best player available at a need spot is a good way to draft.

[Fritz]

Okay, I can't get to the game for a while so my input will just be in geneal terms.

O needs.

Need a guy who can catch in a TE slot. It would make sence for him to be a TE, but a FB would do. If there were a top shelf type TE (block and catch) I can assure you he would be put to good use. That good use would at the expense of our FB, but I think that is ok.

T who can serve as a backup, perhaps with an eye to start in a year or so. We are going to need a guy here anyway to have a legit roster.

Wants
Another QB prospect. I would like to see one a year come in.

RBs. I would like two more on the team by week 1. Whatever we can get is fine.

WR for depth or to bump Matthews. Perhaps a STer in the Duran mold if one turns up.

G: already talked about. if we don't get one we don't get one

----
Perhaps we reach a little and get a solid K and or P for the future.

----

If the team feels that the top picks need to go to the D then do so without worrying about the OC getting crabby.

[Fritz]

dola - of course Iwould say take the TE at 1, but LB would help the D out a bunch and might get albionmoonlight in a position to transition to a 3-4 at some point.

[QuikSand]

In my opinion, the guy to take with this selection is LB Buddy Middleton. His current ratings make him a very valuable contributor right away - we'd get him onto the field in a hurry. While he doesn't carry enough weight to make an easy transition to the DE slot, I'm sure he'd switch to an OLB slot just fine. From there, we could liberally use him as a DE - even make him a full-time starter there, if we desire. My expectation is that he would outperform at DE any of the "natural" DEs in this draft. I like him better than R.J. Walters, who is the next best linebacker on the board, by a pretty comfortable margin -- I think he is the true standout here. Over the course of a year or two, he may well become one of our very best players. He'll be neutral with our current team leader.

My best guess is that in round two, we will end up looking at an OL as the "best player available" among our need areas.


The only reservation I have is that G Tyrell Brandon is such a perfect fit for us, it's hard to pass him up. We have openly called for a run-proficient guard to cultivate to become an anchor for our line -- and here is the perfct guy for the job, with the perfect ingredients to add to our chemistry soup. It's tough to pass that up, I think.

We have to imagine that Brandon will be gone by our second round pick - the first OG already went, so he ought to go fairly soon, I'd guess.

With plenty of playable LBs and DEs sitting in the draft... does it make more sense to get the "perfect fit" guy here, and then take another solid guy in round two (DE or LB, whichever looks better)?

[QuikSand]

As a refresher, and to keep it available:

The four affinity groups are:
Aries, Gemini, Scorpio
Sagittarius, Leo, Virgo
Pisces, Taurus, Cancer
Aquarius, Libra, Capricorn

And the six pairs of opposed signs are:
Aries - Aquarius
Taurus - Libra
Gemini - Virgo
Scorpio - Pisces
Capricorn - Leo
Cancer – Sagittarius

And our CURRENT position leaders:

FB - Kowalski - Aquarius - Backfield Leader
TE - Diana - Taurus - Receivers Leader
LT - Johns - Aquarius - Offensive Line Leader
LDE - Martin - Taurus - Defensive Front Leader
SS - Hawkins - Cancer - Secondary Leader

[Fritz]

now i wish we did not pick up Johns last season. ug, I hate him

[Buzzbee]

The three I would consider (in no particular order):

TE - Larry Wylie
In my opinion he is the best player left on the board. Fritz says he wants a TE. Here is his TE.

Run Blocking		56/96

Pass Blocking		15/62

Blocking Strength         51

Avoid Drops		  60

Getting Downfield       64/75

Route Running		58/95

Third Down Catchin	39/70

Courage			20/54

Adjust to Ball		29/67

Avoid Fumbles		57/96

Endurance	          100

Special Teams		32/60

LB - Buddy Middleton
Ditto what QS said. His numbers:

Run Defense		14/48

Pass Rush Tech		56/95

Man to Man		21/56

Zone			53/95

Bump N Run		63

Pass Rush Str		74

Play Diagnosis		43/82

Punishing Hitter	72

Endurance		44/58

Special Teams		38/52

RG - Tyrell Brandon
Ditto QS again. However, he is a fan favorite, which is a double edged sword, more fannies in the seats, but higher salary.

Run Blocking		9/94

Pass Blocking		3/50

Blocking Strength	85

Endurance		18/36

I'm leaning toward Middleton or Wylie. Brandon seems like a "perfect fit" but I think there are enough serviceable G's to allow us to pass on him. He also doesn't have "great" Current ratings and would be a project. Middleton or Wylie would be impact players NOW. Wylie is Acquarius and I believe would be neutra (he is not a Libra, but is in the same affinity group, but I don't think that matters.

However, I'm open to any of the three or other alternatives if presented.

[Fritz]

I dont trust those all green guys in the first round

[Buzzbee]

So I'm guessing that means you are a little averse to Brandon?

[Buzzbee]

If you have Word 2000, here is a file with screen prints of the three players, in case the visualization will help.

[QuikSand]

I just wish I had a better sense of what Fritz has in mind here.

Our rules say that TE Diana has to be the starter at TE. (We may have already traversed into the letter/spirit issue here, but I'll leave that aside for now) We are already heavily invested in FB Rubble, who is getting lots of playing time as our "H-back" and getting most of the catches that would ordinarily go to our TE position (Diana gets jack squat).

If we invest top dollar into TE Wylie (who does seem to be a great player), what do we get from this? We have a FB and TE, each making top dollar, and neither of whom can be in the starting lineup. We end up subbing each of them in - in at TE, in at FB, in at RB some... so both get some playing time, I guess.

But how much more do we get from having a star TE and a star FB, rather than just a star FB? Is this about 2TE sets? Who comes off the field in those sets, then? Do we drop a WR to get our 2nd TE aboard?

Anyway - were it not for the fact that we have FB Rubble (who plays a lot of TE, I understand) I'd have no trouble agreeing that TE Wylie is a top candidate here. As it is, I'm not sure what we gain by (in many situations) taking out one star and replacing him with another.

'Splain me, Fritz.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Fritz
I dont trust those all green guys in the first round

I can see this as a fair concern with Brandon especially - and it might well be enough to dissuade me from suggesting him as a top candidate. I guess I'm just so in love with the chemistry side of it, i'm losing my focus. I agree - he's rather risky on this account.

[Fritz]

Originally posted by QuikSand
I just wish I had a better sense of what Fritz has in mind here.

Our rules say that TE Diana has to be the starter at TE. (We may have already traversed into the letter/spirit issue here, but I'll leave that aside for now) We are already heavily invested in FB Rubble, who is getting lots of playing time as our "H-back" and getting most of the catches that would ordinarily go to our TE position (Diana gets jack squat).

If we invest top dollar into TE Wylie (who does seem to be a great player), what do we get from this? We have a FB and TE, each making top dollar, and neither of whom can be in the starting lineup. We end up subbing each of them in - in at TE, in at FB, in at RB some... so both get some playing time, I guess.

But how much more do we get from having a star TE and a star FB, rather than just a star FB? Is this about 2TE sets? Who comes off the field in those sets, then? Do we drop a WR to get our 2nd TE aboard?

Anyway - were it not for the fact that we have FB Rubble (who plays a lot of TE, I understand) I'd have no trouble agreeing that TE Wylie is a top candidate here. As it is, I'm not sure what we gain by (in many situations) taking out one star and replacing him with another.

'Splain me, Fritz.

Sure. I view the "starting" rule to mean we slot a guy as the #1 player in a positon. Within a formation I feel free to mix that up, as long as we stay within the "starter" role for some base formations.

In the 2 TE versions of I and Pro (which we use) I had been slotting rubble as TE1, Diana as TE2. This leaves FB1 and RB1. because I have us passing out of this from time to time it woul be nice to have a FB that had hands. I think this is fairly important because I don't see the guy slotted as TE catching passes. If Kowalski is in the backfield, we only have 3 sents of hands on the field that might catch the ball. A pass catching TE would also fit in nicely in the one back formations. Rubble would lose some catches to a new TE, but that might not be a bad thing looking at his workload. More importanly, we have some problems now if Rubble goes out. We can slot Strong as the pass catching FB, but not in the TE slots.

It is just a versitility thing .

Again, if we have a shot at a good player for D that will start, I would take it

[QuikSand]

That's about what I would have expected, Fritz. Ideally, we could pick up a guy to help here with a middle round pick... I am just not sold that we need to invest our top pick to the "star" TE here - even though I do like the guy.

I'll be away for a while (probably a few days, though I might check in)-- go please do carry on without me. I could support any of our options here with the top pick, and I'm comfy with the general game plan onward.

Tally ho!

[Buzzbee]

Here's a thought, and it might go against the "spirit" of the rule. What if we convert Diana from TE to FB? Diana is no longer our Receivers leader and doesn't have to start. Opens the door for Wylie or Rubble. K-Carr probably becomes the WR leader.

Thoughts? Are we bending the rules too much?

[Buzzbee]

I guess I have really grown to like Wylie. I really like the thought of him and Rubble on the field together. In regard to Middleton, he is a player and I'm sure would do quite well. I just think we're getting a little overloaded at MLB, and Fritz has valid concerns about G Brandon.

[Fritz]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
Here's a thought, and it might go against the "spirit" of the rule. What if we convert Diana from TE to FB? Diana is no longer our Receivers leader and doesn't have to start. Opens the door for Wylie or Rubble. K-Carr probably becomes the WR leader.

Thoughts? Are we bending the rules too much?

We don't need to convert Diana to give quality time to another TE. We just need the TE...

[Buzzbee]

Dola2 -
I will be out of pocket until Saturday night or more likely Sunday morning. Will be around today and tomorrow, but will not have the game available (tonight maybe).

I'm ok with pressing forward or holding up. Whatever you guys decide.

[Fritz]

I can't move forward and with the Hurrican just starting to lay into us, I might end up off line for a few days.

[Buzzbee]

Good luck with the hurricane. I hope you and yours come away safe and unaffected.

[albionmoonlight]

I'm busy at work, so it looks like we all can put it to rest for a few days.

Good luck with the weather, Fritz. Stay safe.

[Buzzbee]

Good morning. QS - I hope you have/had much success in Vegas and make/made it back safely to an undamaged dwelling. Fritz, hope you passed through safely with no serious damage.

[Buzzbee]

I decided to go ahead with the draft based on the feedback that had been given so far. I wanted to progress the game a little so that there would be at least a little progress during the hurricane induced (I'm assuming) lull.

After reviewing the top three that most of us seemed to agree on, I went with TE Wylie. In looking at the three, Wylie seemed to fill two holes. He gives Fritz his desired versatility, but also is a very capable blocker and can bolster the right side of the line. He's no G, but should give us a little more flexibility up front as well. I admit I made a 180 degree turn in moving from favoring the D to favoring the O, but felt Wylie was like Rubble, just too good to pass up.

It ended up paying off because, UNBELIEVABLY, MILB Middleton slid to the second round! So, without even looking at anyone else, I picked him.

I went ahead and simmed down to our third pick. Here are the results:


21. Little Rock - Royster, Marco, T, Boise State
22. Tulsa - Walters, R.J., OLB, North Texas
23. Cheyenne - Gregory, Sammie, RB, Eastern Washington
24. Kitty Hawk - Wylie, Larry, TE, Miami, Florida
25. Texarkana - Gossett, Jermaine, DE, Northwestern
26. Puget Sound - Hett, Malcolm, DE, Iowa State
27. Bermuda - El Nino, Randy, RB, Virginia Tech
28. Fort Knox - Brandon, Tyrell, G, UCLA
29. Key West - Malone, J.C., RB, Rice
30. Louisville - Styles, Randall, T, Pittsburgh
31. Ypsilanti - Prior, Jon, G, Georgia Tech
32. Napa Valley - Rasmussen, Terrell, G, Notre Dame
33. Tulsa - Jones, Carlton, WR, Bowling Green
34. Manhattan - Sampson, Kenny, G, Boise State
35. Thunder Bay - Benoot, Jeffrey, DT, UCLA
36. Ocean City - Harden, Ken, QB, Illinois
37. Fort Wayne - Moss, Harvey, CB, Brigham Young
38. Sacramento - Boatright, Jon, T, Notre Dame
39. Athens - Whalen, Preston, OLB, Tulane
40. Norfolk - Murphy, Dean, WR, Florida
41. Nashua - Lake, Richard, T, Boise State
42. Tijuana - Hanks, Rickey, CB, Virginia
43. Niagara Falls - Harlan, Matt, QB, Texas A&M
44. Wheeling - Ding, Kris, G, Miami, Florida
45. Death Valley - Glover, Omar, T, Brigham Young
46. Pensacola - Barker, Charles, T, Boise State
47. Providence - McWilliams, Jared, T, Wake Forest
48. Lake Erie - Baulig, Zack, WR, Connecticut
49. Champaign - Wakefield, A.J., CB, Georgia Tech
50. Hawk Mountain - Daniels, T.J., OLB, Princeton
51. Sault Ste. Marie - Dawson, Eugene, QB, San Jose State
52. Memphis - Clark, Sean, DT, Arizona
53. Little Rock - Mouton, Nolan, DT, Tulane
54. Champaign - Phillips, Quinn, T, Duke
55. Cheyenne - Mayes, Arnie, DE, Navy
56. Kitty Hawk - Middleton, Buddy, ILB, Tulsa
57. Puget Sound - Ferguson, Broderick, QB, Bowling Green
58. Athens - Wolsic, Nathan, T, Boston College
59. Bermuda - Lee, Thurman, DE, Utah
60. Fort Knox - Necaise, Dean, DE, Northwestern
61. Key West - Knight, Donovan, DT, New Mexico State
62. Mazatlan - Neeley, Richie, CB, Rice
63. Ypsilanti - Osborne, Shane, RB, UCLA
64. Napa Valley - Kuehl, R.J., DT, Virginia Tech
65. Mazatlan - Tyler, Herb, DE, Florida
66. Manhattan - Cash, Calvin, DE, Virginia
67. Thunder Bay - Sullivan, Jimmy, CB, New Mexico State
68. Ocean City - Horton, Junior, DT, Northwestern
69. Fort Wayne - Henry, Darnell, T, Georgia Tech
70. Ypsilanti - Dougherty, Robbie, S, Louisiana - Monroe
71. Athens - Dennis, Byron, CB, Washington
72. Fort Knox - Patton, O.J., S, Michigan
73. Nashua - Hitchcock, Xavier, WR, Iowa State
74. Tijuana - Berry, Jay, OLB, Maryland
75. Niagara Falls - Conway, Dexter, T, Delaware
76. Wheeling - Hill, Nolan, G, UCLA
77. Death Valley - Sawyer, Wayne, CB, Akron
78. Pensacola - Stevens, Carlos, S, Central Florida
79. Providence - Thomas, Nicky, CB, Louisville
81. Champaign - Osborne, Ricky, WR, Ohio State
82. Hawk Mountain - Bongiovanni, George, G, Utah
83. Sault Ste. Marie - Sawyer, Norman, T, Notre Dame
84. Memphis - Romanowski, Shannon, OLB, Notre Dame
85. Little Rock - Cheatham, Ross, OLB, Florida
86. Tulsa - Owens, Ed, G, Ohio State
87. Cheyenne - Lane, Moe, WR, Penn State

[Buzzbee]

Here are the files. Let me know if there are any problems.
File update #1 of #2

[Buzzbee]

File update #2 of #2

[QuikSand]

Thanks for the update, Buzzbee. Mrs. Q and I returned this evening to dfind our home just as we found it, minus a very few small things. No worries at all.

I'm thrilled with the first two picks in the draft - unbelievable that LB Middleton fell to round two.

On first glance at the draft so far (before I go get some much-needed shuteye) here's my initil question: how long do we think RB R.J. Harden will stay on the board? He looks like a solid, versatile RB (maybe guys liike him are a dime a dozen in the game) but we have a vacancy at 3rd RB, and he might be a great fit. Will he slide into the late rounds, like the similar guys did last season? Or do we consider him here?

More in the a.m.

[Buzzbee]

Yeah, I was amazed as well! G Brandon went soon after our pick and I was just waiting for Middleton to go, but he never did.

My thoughts:

The pickin's are starting to get pretty slim, talentwise. Most of the better players left are in positions that we don't necessarily want to take this early (K, P) or don't need at all (C, FB).

In looking at our roster, here are the need positions as I see it:

K, P, DE, WR, OLman (T or G or both)

Wants:
CB, RB (could re-sign Withers or Strong if pressed), 4th QB, backup SS, DT?

[Buzzbee]

Ok, in looking at the players remaining, my thoughts:

I think there are enough RB's that somebody will slide, and if they don't we can re-sign Withers or Atkins. Also, we might sign an undrafted FB and conver them if needed. As a result, I'd prefer not to use a 3rd pick on a RB.

There are a couple of positions that still have decent players and I think we might want to focus on these. They are WR, CB and S. Also drafting a C and converting to G might be plausible as well. As a result, my suggestions:

FL - Percy Davidson - Taurus - Affinity with WR leader Diana (Taurus) He has reds in the teens and twenties in most categories. Greens above 50 in all but Big Play & Adjust to ball. Could become a solid receiver if he holds. Downside: pretty even across the board in red and green which scares me (bust?). Also, he has high leadership (79) which could cause problems if he is a bust since current leader Diana only has 80.

FL - Brady McEachern - Gemini (neutral) - Similar to Davidson above, but more red and less green. Less bust potential IMO. Could develop into a good 3rd or maybe even 2nd receiver. Low leadership, so no worries there.

FL - J.C. Lewis - Taurus - Affinity with WR leader Diana. VERY similar to Davidson above. Well rounded, moderate red, green above 50 in all but Big Play & Adjust. Likewise, I fear a bust. Lower leadership (49) and stronger personality (89).

RCB - Myron Bullock - Capricorn (neutral) - Solid potential, above 50 in all but Play Diag & Punish Hitter. Eveness of potential makes me wary of bust. Potential to be moderately good returner.

LCB - Dominic Holliday - Capricorn (neutral) - Also like Bullock, has green in 50's for all but Bump N Run & Punish Hitter. Less red than Bullock, but more potential in M2M, Run Def, & Zone. Also moderately good return potential. Potential downside - Leadership = Very High (90).

LCB - Phil Prescott - Virgo (neutral) Different than the first two. Significantly more red, mostly in Punish, Intercept, Punt, Kick (52,52,50,57 respectively). Less potential in the defenses (run, M2M, zone). Again, leadership potential problem - 88.

RCB Shannon Mudgett is also a possiblity but for some reason wasn't as attractive.

SS - Walt Foley - Capricorn (neutral) In the teens for red bars, in the 50's for green bars (except Punishing Hitter). Could develop into a very solid, well rounded player. Again, eveness of ratings scares me. Also, very high leadership (82).

FS - Marc Wahl - Scorpio (neutral) More jagged in his ratings. Weaknesses are Zone & Punish, strong in areas we like, Run Def, M2M, BNR. Especially strong in INT and ENDurance. Leadership High at 68, so little concern there.

For consideration:
C - Muarice Cajigal Gemini (neutral) Good blocking strength, some red, and pretty good green for run and pass. Might convert well to a G. 6-2, 300 lb so may be a little undersized for a G. Very High Leadership (85)

LG - Chad Stuart Aquarius (Affinity with Johns - Aquarius) The more I look, the more I like this guy. Good potential in pass and rush. Good red already in Block Strength. Low leadership of 20, so no concern there. Weak personality though (2).

Ok, I think I've overkilled this enough.

[QuikSand]

A few guys to look at...

MLB Howie Boyd looks like he'd be a contributor at LB, decent skills against teh run, but pretty solid all around and potentially very good in zone coverage. Great on special teams, too. Has decent size to shift to outside, if needed, I think. Chemistry neutral. In the same position group, LB Percy Rapp looks like a LB/S 'tweener - excelent cover man, decent in a pure LB role. Remember when the Bears drafted a guy like that a few years ago?

RB Dennis Rivers looks like a useful all-around back, with a high rating in "elusiveness." In a draft full of middling RB prospectd, he stands out a bit because of his all-around skills, and his potential for strong affinity in the backfield group. His 64 leadership probably wouldn't make him a position leader at any point, either.

At WR, there are a few middling options - reserve-quality guys, really. Mack McCormick is a great pujtn returner, and an occasional game-breaker type - but probably not a reliable every-down receiver. (Nice reserve flanker, I think) Harvey Glenn could be a third down target and help in the return game, too. Harvey Carpenter is an affinity guy with sure hands and some pretty decent underneath skills (can work over the middle, I think) - but be wary of his 88 rating in leadership - he could become our position leader, forcing him to be a starter. (Aside - isn't it weird how every well-conceived house rule eventually turns into some perverse incentive?)

Along the OL, I don't see a lot to like here. C Korey aliabadi looks to have big potential in run blocking, and would be an affinity guy as well. He might make sense - especially if he might make a move to guard. At 293 lbs, I think he could do it, but he'd probably lose something in the switch - so if we take him, we probably need to be prepared for him to be slotted as a center (which makes any OL less palatable).

[QuikSand]

From a metagame perspective, I tend to shy away from the receivers you describe above, Buzzbee. WRd Davidson and McEachern both have very similar patterns to their ratings - pretty flat reds, with pretty uniform greens showing. My guess is that both of those guys will quickly be exposed as having practically no growth potential at all.

I prefer guys like WR Carpenter or Glenn - guys with uneven ratings, real strengths and weaknesses, and at least a few ratings that are already strong in red. Basically, I believe you cantake teh red ratings to the bank, and then you look at the green with some doubt - much more so if the greens look to be too uniform.

Just a general FWIW.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
Wants: RB (could re-sign Withers or Strong if pressed)

Just an FYI - RB Rob Strong is already signed for this year and next - he signed a three year deal when drafted last season. So, we are two deep at RB already - our need/want is for a third back.

The two guys from last year's roster who remain unsigned are Luke Withers and Brett Atkins. Withers is expecting some real money, I think, but Atkins would be cheap.

Might have just been some name confusion, but I wanted to settle that - since we have had some discussion about RB Rob Strong's role in the offense already. I didn't want anyone to think that he might not be around.

[Fritz]

hey kids,

I am all blown up. No juice or intrnet at the house and I am only at work part time. I may be unvailable for the near future.

[QuikSand]

Hope you're getting through okay, Fritz. My family down that way ae just getting back up and running... hope you're not far behind.

[albionmoonlight]

Glad to hear that you are safe, Fritz.

Perhaps we should stay on hiatus until Fritz is back up and running. If we do decide to finish the draft at least, I would not be adverse to picking up some LB depth.

I am cool with however we decide to run things.

[Fritz]

By all means finish the draft and pick up the round out rooks. I can work with whatever makes it on the roster. Just remember that I that I like 4QBs and 4RBs when possible. The 4QBs is really just to keep us from having to sign one if we lose a guy.

----

My neighborhood has little sturctural damage, but is in bad shape. Allmost every house lost a tree or two, with most of them falling across power lines and blocking the road.

The roads are passable now, but power has not been restored to this part of the region.

It could be worse. One of my co-workers had the bay go into his house to a depth of 2 feet. The house he lives in (a rental) is totaled. Most of his stuff has been destroyed, and 2 of his cars have been ruined.

[Fritz]

note to all:

Please rememberto look at leadership strength as we start selecting role players. It would suck to have to keep a marginal palyer on the roster and in a starting slot becuase we happened to pick up a guy with a 99 leadership to fill depth.

[Buzzbee]

Originally posted by QuikSand
From a metagame perspective, I tend to shy away from the receivers you describe above, Buzzbee. WRd Davidson and McEachern both have very similar patterns to their ratings - pretty flat reds, with pretty uniform greens showing. My guess is that both of those guys will quickly be exposed as having practically no growth potential at all.

I prefer guys like WR Carpenter or Glenn - guys with uneven ratings, real strengths and weaknesses, and at least a few ratings that are already strong in red. Basically, I believe you cantake teh red ratings to the bank, and then you look at the green with some doubt - much more so if the greens look to be too uniform.

Just a general FWIW.

I agree with you. That is why I mentioned bust potential in my summaries. However, it isn't a guarantee that they will bust. I'm not particularly hot for any of these players. Just wanted to bring them out for discussion, such as you did above.

[Buzzbee]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Just an FYI - RB Rob Strong is already signed for this year and next - he signed a three year deal when drafted last season. So, we are two deep at RB already - our need/want is for a third back.

The two guys from last year's roster who remain unsigned are Luke Withers and Brett Atkins. Withers is expecting some real money, I think, but Atkins would be cheap.

Might have just been some name confusion, but I wanted to settle that - since we have had some discussion about RB Rob Strong's role in the offense already. I didn't want anyone to think that he might not be around.

Yes, name confusion. Meant Atkins, typed Strong.

[Buzzbee]

I've seen LB mentioned as a possiblity with this pick. I think we have enough depth at LB for the moment. Just drafted Middleton, have Shon and our star (can't remember his name). And didn't we pick up a MLB as a Free Agent? If Middleton holds, I think we are ok at LB other than picking up a roster filler in case of injury. IMO there are other areas that we need to address before LB.

Our scouts rating and LB concerns me a little. Middleton did drop to the second round and our scout is only "fair" I think. I expect his ratings to end up a little lower after camp, but still think he will be good.

Just think we need some depth in other areas. A better option at nickelback. More depth on the OL. A needed DE (although there ain't much there).

Thoughts?

[QuikSand]

Here's the current roster, just to help out with names and to refresh memories on where we are:

Front Office Football: The Fourth Edition
Kitty Hawk Flyers Roster, Scout Overview
   
  Player                #   Pos  Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct OnTeam 
Sparks, Heath           18  QB   7    42                42                1 yr.  2020 
Hutchins, Chuck         17  QB   8    37                41                1 yr.  2020 
Tittle, Bennie          13  QB   2    13                40                2 yrs. 2020 
Finley, Daniel          20  RB   4    58                58                3 yrs. 2018 
Withers, Luke           41  RB   2    35                44                ---    2020 
Strong, Rob             24  RB   2    32                39                2 yrs. 2020 
Atkins, Brett           25  RB   2    28                32                ---    2020 
Rubble, Earnest         39  FB   2    58                63                3 yrs. 2020 
Kowalski, Rondell       36  FB   12   24                25                1 yr.  2020 
Wylie, Larry            86  TE   1    46                72                5 yrs. 2021 
Diana, Julio            80  TE   13   34                35                1 yr.  2019 
Wayne, Bernard          82  TE   4    25                42                1 yr.  2020 
Quick, Bert             8   TE   2    18                33                ---    2020 
Song, Peter             84  FL   3    44                53                4 yrs. 2019 
Carr, Kenneth           81  FL   9    40                41                2 yrs. 2020 
Sanderson, Robert       83  FL   2    29                45                3 yrs. 2020 
Matthews, Julio         88  FL   4    22                37                1 yr.  2020 
Rheams, Corwin          85  SE   8    34                34                ---    2020 
Andrews, Willie         65  LT   12   62                62                3 yrs. 2018 
Johns, Timothy          61  LT   7    38                50                1 yr.  2020 
Reese, Bernie           66  LT   2    24                35                ---    2020 
Hausermann, Dave        72  LG   6    34                41                1 yr.  2020 
Winters, R.J.           54  C    14   76                77                2 yrs. 2012 
Cicci, Carlton          60  C    2    34                48                ---    2020 
Perry, Lewis            57  C    3    23                33                1 yr.  2019 
Peterson, Rufus         68  RG   3    34                44                1 yr.  2019 
Otis, Les               67  RG   4    25                36                ---    2020 
Wallace, Irv            71  RG   3    18                51                2 yrs. 2021 
Kinsey, Lincoln         4   P    3    38                38                ---    2020 
Beattie, Mickey         1   K    2    43                46                ---    2020 
Martin, Cedric          78  LDE  11   57                63                2 yrs. 2018 
Peters, Ellis           70  LDT  8    35                35                2 yrs. 2020 
Littlejohn, Jack        77  RDT  3    37                41                3 yrs. 2019 
Armstrong, Stan         75  RDT  2    14                26                ---    2020 
Beecroft, Phillip       91  RDE  5    28                38                2 yrs. 2021 
Emerson, Geoff          76  RDE  3    25                33                ---    2019 
Mills, J.J.             50  SLB  9    41                41                1 yr.  2020 
Wynn, Leslie            99  SLB  2    21                31                ---    2020 
Daniels, Russell        96  MLB  7    66                66                3 yrs. 2020 
Shon, Desmond           52  MLB  9    44                46                1 yr.  2020 
Plank, Oscar            56  MLB  6    30                42                2 yrs. 2021 
Wilson, Roy             93  MLB  2    16                31                ---    2020 
Middleton, Buddy        98  WILB 1    41                65                4 yrs. 2021 
Gillespie, Sammy        90  WLB  2    26                38                ---    2020 
Chilton, Riddick        51  WLB  3    23                34                3 yrs. 2021 
Henderson, Joseph       42  LCB  6    50                52                2 yrs. 2020 
Duran, Luther           28  LCB  2    23                41                3 yrs. 2020 
Devitt, Cornell         32  LCB  3    20                49                3 yrs. 2021 
Dole, Orlando           46  LCB  2    15                22                ---    2020 
Bordano, Edgar          29  RCB  4    58                68                2 yrs. 2018 
Perry, Shane            35  RCB  6    34                42                2 yrs. 2021 
Drake, Spencer          38  RCB  5    20                31                ---    2020 
Hawkins, Ricky          33  SS   11   50                50                2 yrs. 2020 
Reynolds, Louie         30  FS   12   46                46                2 yrs. 2018 
McNair, Orlando         45  FS   2    34                62                2 yrs. 2020 
   
$$ - player is in starting lineup, ## - player is inactive.  
   
Players Under Contract: 39
On Active Roster: 39
   
Salary Cap: $174,300,000
Cap Room: $25,310,000
Maximum for New Player: $21,830,000
Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $18,610,000
   
Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $6,030,000
Cap Room Required Next Year: $126,580,000 

[QuikSand]

At LB, we currently are on OLB short of a legal starting roster, but I anticipate a switch of our top draft pick Middleton (probably to the Sam slot) which woudl give us the minimum 2 inside and 4 outside. LB Desmond Shon, our current weak-side starter, is out of contract after this season, and probably cannot be re-signed. Same goes for curretn starter J.J. Mills (though he might be a possible re-sign, as he may not attract much attention on th FA market) We did sign versatile LB Oscar Plank, who looks to be a pretty solid #4 backer, overall.

So - I agree, we're in pretty good shape at LB, assuming Middleton works out well. After this season, we might have an open spot - but we've found free agents who are passable.

Can I make the case for drafting a potential starting-caliber LB here? Sure. Next season we may be under a huge cap crunch - and having a guy making just over minsal (3rd round contract) as a starter for us is a huge money-saver. That's worth something more than getting a depth chart filler here just to go for a "need" position.

That's why I think Howie Boyd is a serious consideration here. If he pans out, he'll be a better player than Oscar Plank, and probably should be capable of stpping in to start next year.

I don't see anyone else left in this draft who looks like a potential starter for us -- just guys who fill the ever-present "need" spots of reserve-level WR, single-skill player, and utility man. So, that's my thinking here... I don't see anyone in the draft who, without a big surprise breakout, will be much of anything more than a roster filler. A couple of guys at LB and RB seem to be the exception to that, and it seems that RB are a dime a dowen in these draft files... leading me to think that we take a non-need position here, hoping to get a starter.

Buzzbee's well-placed concern about our scout (buoyed by the fact that Middleton dropped) makes me think this is a risky pick - maybe Boyd would bust. If so, we've lost a third round pick... but in terms of opportunity cost, I don't see that as too much.


edit - added critical word "after"

[QuikSand]

Just adding to thoughts from above... I'm not sure that we really have any bona fide "holes" in our current roster - so I don't think we're necessarily drafting for this year here. If there's a spot where we need help right away, it's probably on the DL... and drafting guys who slot at OLB can help there, at least on the outside.

Where else are we drafting a player who might see much field time this year? RB 3? WR 4/5? Maybe an OL?

So, in that vein - I guess we're mostly looking for decent roster fillers and anyone with some potential tobe useful next season and beyond.

[Fritz]

K?
P?

[Buzzbee]

I didn't realize Shon was out of contract. In previous discussions I thought we planned to move him to OLB for the upcoming season and therefore assumed he was under contract. If Shon IS out of contract, then I can certainly support a LB with this pick since everywhere else seems pretty slim.

What about Boyd's Chemistry and leadership?

K & P are DEFINITE need areas. Seems like K & P's usually start going in late 3rd to 4th round. I'm not opposed to picking up a solid contributor in the kicking game. FG's last year did leave a little to be desired and I can think of at least ONE game that we lost to a conference rival (Bermuda Barons, 1st game) as one that we could have won with a better kicking game. A good K can put points on the board, and a good P can help win the field position games.

[Buzzbee]

Also, QS - can you edit your roster posting to eliminate those players (Shon?) that we are definitely/probably not going to re-sign?

That might help identify true "need" areas (filling minimum numbers) for later picks.