Sunday Night Football Punt/Go For It poll

[molson]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Is it really hard to grasp the concept of Belichick making the right call, but the Colts defender making a great play?

Ya, that's always the part that's left out - that was a hell of a defensive play. They could have gotten caught totally off guard there.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Well if that was truely the right call as the numbers seem to suggest, going for it on anything less than 3 yards seems like the right move. I always wondered how a team would do if they never punted. Head coaches must be confused on the actual percentages if the success rate is 60 percent on 4th and 2 youd think we'd see more teams going for it. Or is it that the numbers are inflated by the meaningless 4th and 2's that are converted late in decided games

Nope. It's that most coaches don't have the guts or job security to do it. there is a HS coach who never punts.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by TroyF

While talking about this, I go to the 49ers/Bears game the other night, for a little different play situation The Niners decided not to go for a long FG and punt the ball at the 35 with a 4th and 6. The guy punted it in the end zone. The Bears drove down the field and had a chance to win. If that's me and I don't trust my kicker, I'm going for the first down. Every. Single. Time.

4th and 6 is very tough to convert and since you are a percentage person you should see the difference in scoring TDs when starting at your own 20 compared to your own 35. Its quite large.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Nope. It's that most coaches don't have the guts or job security to do it. there is a HS coach who never punts.

You have to be much more talented than the other team to never punt. In high school and college it might work however in the NFL where the talent margin is thin it would be a recipe for disaster.

[NewIdentity]

To me this just means the coach does not trust his defense. If your defense can not stop their offense then sometimes you are better off letting your offense convert and never turning the ball over.


As a long time Steeler fan, you punt the ball and let your defense win the game.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

4th and 6 is very tough to convert and since you are a percentage person you should see the difference in scoring TDs when starting at your own 20 compared to your own 35. Its quite large.

15 yards in a two minute offense? Not really.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by TroyF

15 yards in a two minute offense? Not really.

Glad you noticed that too. I made mention of it in the game thread. SF absolutely has to go for it there. I do think Andy Lee is a good punter. I didn't see the play though. Was it just a coffin kick that missed?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

I'm sorry, but I really think this is bullshit. If the defense's hurt feelings cost the team anything the rest of the way they aren't a good enough defense to win anyway.

You really no absolutely nothing about how football is played do you?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RendeR

You really no absolutely nothing about how football is played do you?

Same way as every other sport. With grit, heart, emotion, determination, scrappiness, and mostly importantly - clutchiness.

[stevew]

Gritty white guys are the best players.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Same way as every other sport. With grit, heart, emotion, determination, scrappiness, and mostly importantly - clutchiness.

None of which a team can have if they know their coach doesn't believe in them. All of those things are damn near as important as raw talent on the football field. THe coach, in this case beli, has to develop those traits by building faith within the ranks. He's always been one of the best at believing in his players and letting them go out and do their jobs. He just told half his team they aren't trsutworthy and he doesn't believe they can do their jobs.

Belicheck may well have just ripped the heart out of his own defense.

None of the extraneous stats matter. You have two options. Take a chance on a long 4th down try (anything over 1 yard is a LONG try) or you punt and pin your opponent deep and force them to make the miracle happen. Anything that even gives the colts a CHANCE to get the ball that close is just the wrong choice in that situation.

70 yards is ALWAYS better to defend than 30 yards. Going for that 4th down was just plain dumb. Though I must say it is nice to see Belichek fuck up now and then. reminds me that he's still human.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by TroyF

15 yards in a two minute offense? Not really.

Id think giving Cutler 4-5 extra plays to throw an INT is quite the advantage and look what happened

FYI Field possission is pretty high up on this list of winning traits teams have.

NFL statistical correlations research from TwoMinuteWarning.com

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RendeR

None of which a team can have if they know their coach doesn't believe in them. All of those things are damn near as important as raw talent on the football field. THe coach, in this case beli, has to develop those traits by building faith within the ranks. He's always been one of the best at believing in his players and letting them go out and do their jobs. He just told half his team they aren't trsutworthy and he doesn't believe they can do their jobs.

Belicheck may well have just ripped the heart out of his own defense.

None of the extraneous stats matter. You have two options. Take a chance on a long 4th down try (anything over 1 yard is a LONG try) or you punt and pin your opponent deep and force them to make the miracle happen. Anything that even gives the colts a CHANCE to get the ball that close is just the wrong choice in that situation.

70 yards is ALWAYS better to defend than 30 yards. Going for that 4th down was just plain dumb. Though I must say it is nice to see Belichek fuck up now and then. reminds me that he's still human.

Which team do you coach again?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Which team do you coach again?

One with 1 more win than Belicheck if we have to make that same decision again.

You?

[tucker rocky]

This is a no brainer, punt the ball, put faith in the defense to stop P.Manning.
The %'s are better for NE to come out of it winning.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Id think giving Cutler 4-5 extra plays to throw an INT is quite the advantage and look what happened

FYI Field possission is pretty high up on this list of winning traits teams have.

NFL statistical correlations research from TwoMinuteWarning.com

Look, I'm as big of a stat geek as there is. Stats are what tells me that the proper play here was to go for it. All of that said, stats don't tell the entire tale here.

Before the final decision, the Colts had the ball 3 times in the final quarter:

Drive one: 5 plays, 79 yards, 2:04 off the clock, 7 points.
Drive two: 1 play, INT.
Drive three: 6 plays, 79 yards, 1:49 off the clock, 7 points

So we have a total of 12 plays, 158 yards, 14 points and under 4 minutes off the clock.

On those two scoring drives, the Patriots D forced a third down ONE time. That was a third and one on the goal line of the last drive.

The one INT? A simple misread between Manning and his WR.

I know what the drive charts say. I also know an on fire Peyton Manning at home in Indy is going to be difficult to stop. If I have Tom Brady and a chance at winning the game with a 2 yard gain vs. stopping an on fire Manning who seems to have figured out my defense? I'll take my chances with Tommy Boy 11 out of 10 times.

[jbergey22]

Well now you are confusing me Troy we were talking about the 49ers/Bears game and now you are talking about the Colts/Patriots game.

Ive already moved past the Colts/Patriots game as his decision wasnt horrible and all I was really debating his the percentages people were putting in.

[Daimyo]

I think going for it was almost certainly the call that gave the Pats the greatest chance of winning, but if I was the coach I probably would have punted for selfish reasons so that's what I voted for. If you punt and lose no one questions the call and everyone blames the defense. If you go for it and lose everyone criticizes you and you take almost all blame for the loss. Unfortunately, Belichick is probably the only coach secure enough and with the guts to regularly make calls like that.

[King of New York]

Against any other team in the NFL, it would've been a bad call. Against Manning and the Colts, it's a good call. You just cannot give the ball to Manning with two minutes left and a chance to win, especially at home.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by King of New York

Against any other team in the NFL, it would've been a bad call. Against Manning and the Colts, it's a good call. You just cannot give the ball to Manning with two minutes left and a chance to win, especially at home.

+1...very few situations (and teams) would get me to say "go for it" but these 2 teams...in that situation...I'd like to think I'd have the guts to go for it as well since I still believe it was the right call.

I'm not a BB homer but I dont hate him either. I think he's probably the only Coach that can maker that call and have it fail without getting fired. He likely knows this as well...so maybe it isnt nearly as ballsy but more about the % for him.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Nope. It's that most coaches don't have the guts or job security to do it. there is a HS coach who never punts.

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Easterbrook: Stop punting! - ESPN Page 2

From the article:

In a day when the Bears line up five-wide and Texas Tech passes 60 times a game, are there any fundamental innovations that have not been tried? Walsh supposed someone might try using trick formations for an entire game. Shula twinkled his eyes and said: "Someday there will be a coach who doesn't punt."Think about all those punts on fourth-and-1, fourth-and-2, fourth-and-3. The average NFL offensive play gains about five yards. Yet game in, game out, coaches boom the punt away on short yardage, handing the most precious article in football -- possession of the ball -- to the other side. Nearly three-quarters of fourth-and-1 attempts succeed, while around one-third of possessions result in scores. Think about those fractions. Go for it four times on fourth-and-1 -- odds are you will keep the ball three times, and three kept possessions each with a one-third chance of a score results in your team scoring once more than it otherwise would have. Punt the ball on all four fourth-and-1s, and you've given the opponents three additional possessions. (It would have gotten one possession anyway when you missed one of your fourth-and-1s.) Those three extra possessions, divided by the one-third chance to score, give the opponent an extra score.
...
Suppose an NFL or major-college coach came into a season determined to go for it any time it was fourth-and-4 or less. I don't think a coach should be doctrinaire about this. I'd punt if it was fourth-and-4 inside my 20, and I'd be inclined to punt in the second half if protecting a lead. But otherwise, the coach commits to going for it instead of punting, even if the first few attempts backfire. Surely a strategy of rarely punting would sometimes boomerang, but on balance it could lead to more scoring for your team while depriving the other team of the ball. The strategy could cause exhaustion and panic on the parts of defenses that thought they had done their jobs by forcing fourth down, only to discover your offense had no intention of passively jogging off the field. Teams that rarely punted might pile up big advantages in points and time of possession. If Don Shula's "coach who doesn't punt" appeared on the NFL scene, that coach, Tuesday Morning Quarterback suspects, would revolutionize football. Player talent being equal, that coach might blow the doors off the National Football League.Which leaves us with the question of whether the coach conjectured by Shula could ever exist. Such a coach would need to be completely unconcerned with the media and owner backlash that would follow a loss caused by a no-punt policy. Such a coach would need to be fearless, and financially independent. Will there ever be such a coach? Tuesday Morning Quarterback wonders. But next time it's fourth-and-3 and you hear the announcers say "now they have to punt," just remember: No, they don't have to punt.

[Logan]

I'm a fan of that "go for it continuously on 4th down philosophy" and one of the biggest reasons why is because it changes how you approach 3rd down and what you can do. Having 3rd and 4th down to gain 4 yards is extremely different from just having 3rd.

That's where BB messed up, as noted by many here already.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by RendeR

70 yards is ALWAYS better to defend than 30 yards. Going for that 4th down was just plain dumb. Though I must say it is nice to see Belichek fuck up now and then. reminds me that he's still human.

In the context between 1:00 & 2:30 left in a game...I'd be curious to see how many teams losing by 8 or less have drives that stall before midfield.

Reason being (and reason for the bolded)...I dont think it is really defending 70 yards unless you are playing a below average or inept offense (i.e. they have issues with the basics...like the Browns). The nature of prevent defense "gives" them 20-35 yards until you really just come right down to defending the part of the field you'd be defending if you miss the 4th down conversion. Now, sure you dont have to play prevent defense...but there are numerous reasons that almost every team does (and I think that's an ancillary argument to have here).

But against a prevent defense...above average (or elite) offenses do not (IMHO) "typically" have problems picking up the first 20-35 yards. But I'd be curious what % my presumptuous "typically" really is (you'd likely have to count for ALL offenses, then extrapolate which are above average, which is also debatable). I'd bet lots of money its better than 50%...and some money its better than 60% for all teams...and likely over 70% for top 15 offenses over a significant sample size/time period.

I think it's an interesting topic, though.