Revolution(s) in the Arabian World

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Interesting article that clears up where Mubarak and his family went wrong........

Palace intrigue: the last days of Mubarak's rule - Yahoo! News

[JPhillips]

Terrible.

On Friday February 11, the day Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak stepped down, CBS correspondent Lara Logan was covering the jubilation in Tahrir Square for a "60 Minutes" story when she and her team and their security were surrounded by a dangerous element amidst the celebration. It was a mob of more than 200 people whipped into frenzy. In the crush of the mob, she was separated from her crew. She was surrounded and suffered a brutal and sustained sexual assault and beating before being saved by a group of women and an estimated 20 Egyptian soldiers. She reconnected with the CBS team, returned to her hotel and returned to the United States on the first flight the next morning. She is currently in the hospital recovering.

[whomario]

Libya aparently sinking into complete chaos with Gaddafi not only refusing to give up but actively fighting back. And not with riot police and tear gas like early on in Egypt but with soldiers/mercenaries and automatic weapons and fighter Jets

[molson]

I wonder what side of the Libyan revolution the "terminally ill" Lockerbie bomber (still kicking 2 years after his "compassionate release" because he didn't have long to live), and all the people that participated in the national holiday/celebration that was his return to Libya are on? There was a lot of Libyan flags flying that day. Maybe Gaddafi just needs to find another terrorist to bring back home? Terrorists are like rock stars there.

[sterlingice]

I hate to say it, but I think the Japan earthquake ended any chance the Libyan rebels had. I thought the no-fly zone was unlikely but with everyone focused away from the Middle East, there's never going to be enough pressure and Gaddafi is just going to roll over the rebels, slaughtering them as they go. Once the heavy equipment the government had was allowed, particularly the planes, it was over for the rebels.

They had a chance- I mean, think about it- a week or two ago, the rebels were one city away from Tripoli and everyone was defecting to the cause. But now, they're pretty much finished- all in under a month.

SI

[JPhillips]

Hoo fucking ray. Now we're at war with another Muslim country. Too bad we don't have any historical references to help us better understand the consequences of an ill thought intervention in a country where neither side is particularly friendly with the U.S.

edit: And is anybody going to say a word about how much this will cost? I know it's not as important as defunding NPR, but shouldn't someone give a shit?

It's so fucking hard to feel anything but despair.

[jeff061]

I think it'd be more like Kosovo than Iraq or Afghanistan.

[JPhillips]

Regardless, we're at war whether they want to call it that or not and even a Kosovo operation is going to be several billion dollars. The difficulty here is defining an ending. Will we accept two states? How does that happen? Does Quaddafi have to leave? Can we do that with only air power? Most importantly, what government will arise in Benghazi, an area that has one of the highest rates of sending foreign fighters to Afghanistan?

[flounder]

Don't worry. Another big war will be a huge stimulus to our economy.

Obama may be able to snag another peace prize after this, too. It's win-win.

[sterlingice]

Well, colored me shocked, considering my previous comments

SI

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Hoo fucking ray. Now we're at war with another Muslim country. Too bad we don't have any historical references to help us better understand the consequences of an ill thought intervention in a country where neither side is particularly friendly with the U.S.

edit: And is anybody going to say a word about how much this will cost? I know it's not as important as defunding NPR, but shouldn't someone give a shit?

It's so fucking hard to feel anything but despair.

NPR cost about as much to fund as the first two cruise missiles that will hit outside of Tripoli in about two hours. Heck, you could probably fully fund the Head Start program for a year with what the military will spend in ordinance in the first two days of a full scale air attack. It would be nice if this doesn't end up being the case this time. The discussion has been the US providing AWACS and other support, and French and Arab planes actually doing the work. It would only be fair since it will be French sold planes and missiles they'll be dealing with.

My guess is that won't be the case, and the brunt of the work and cost all falling on the US taxpayers and military personnel once again. France rattles the sabres for us to do their fighting, and then they'll criticize how we do it.

[GrantDawg]

On the good news of this: The BBC article mentions French and British planes could be ready to attack along with Arab allies within hours. No mention of American forces.

[GrantDawg]

I found this funny:

"Gaddafi’s son was then asked that as France was the first country to recognise the Interim Transitional National Council in Benghazi, what was his opinion of President Sarkozy.
Saif al-Islam: “Sarkozy must first give back the money he took from Libya to finance his electoral campaign. We funded it and we have all the details and are ready to reveal everything. The first thing we want this clown to do is to give the money back to the Libyan people. He was given assistance so that he could help them. But he’s disappointed us: give us back our money. We have all the bank details and documents for the transfer operations and we will make everything public soon.”

[JPhillips]

The top Air Force general said Thursday that a no-fly zone over Libya would not be sufficient in reversing the momentum leader Muammar al-Qaddafi now has over rebel forces.

Appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz told ranking Republican Sen. John McCain, “If the president assigns the mission to maintain a no-fly zone, clearly that would have an influence on the thinking of Libyan pilots.”

McCain then pressed the point that if a no-fly zone is imposed now it would be too little too late.

“A no-fly zone, sir, would not be sufficient,” Schwartz answered.

Perhaps not so Kosovo by the end?

[JPhillips]

And another thing.

Thank fucking you Congress for abandoning your Constitutional role in declaring war.

[sterlingice]

To be fair, that's been going on since, well, Vietnam

SI

[Warhammer]

Having the no-fly zone 2 or 3 weeks ago would have meant something. Now it is too little, too late.

[sterlingice]

If it had happened 3 weeks ago, Libya would be either partitioned or Gaddafi gone. But now, yeah, too late, I suspect.

SI

[Warhammer]

My thinking is, if you were going to do the no fly zone, you do it early. If you were not going to do anything, you let it go. By waiting to implement the no fly zone, you just piss everyone off.

[JPhillips]

Either way, nobody seems at all concerned for what might come after. Eastern Libya is a hotbed for foreign fighters in Afghanistan. I have no love or Qaddafi, but he hasn't given us much trouble for almost two decades. Can we be sure the next government will be better?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

To be fair, that's been going on since, well, Vietnam

SI

Agreed. Doesn't mean I like it any better.

[JPhillips]

I have a fairly old-school conservative view of foreign intervention so I wholeheartedly agree with Richard Lugar here:

Clearly, the United States should be engaged with allies on how to oppose the Qaddafi regime and support the aspirations of the Libyan people. But given the costs of a no-fly zone, the risks that our involvement would escalate, the uncertain reception in the Arab street of any American intervention in an Arab country, the potential for civilian deaths, the unpredictability of the endgame in a civil war, the strains on our military, and other factors, I am doubtful that U.S. interests would be served by imposing a no-fly zone over Libya ... If the Obama administration decides to impose a no-fly zone or take other significant military action in Libya, I believe it should first seek a Congressional debate on a declaration of war under Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution.

[stevew]

I can reluctantly support this, if only cause he is "apparently" on the verge of wholesale slaughter of a city. Of course I don't trust the motives of the factors at work very much. So I am curious as to how accurate this intelligence is.

[Glengoyne]

I'm with Dick Lugar as well. We should have pushed this with the UN ten days ago, and then pushed our allies to actually do it. My personal hope is that our involvement stops at cruise missles or a handful of strategic targets to make it easier for everyone else to actually do more of the day to day work there. All in all, this is too little WAY too damn late. Of course I hope I'm surprised, I hope we're all surprised.

[JPhillips]

No offense, but that sounds just the opposite of Lugar's position.

[GrantDawg]

Lybian government has now called for an immediate cease fire. Smart move on their part. No bombs have fallen, they have lost nothing, but they are positions to continue a "police action" against the rebels, which will make any air support harder to be helpfull/effective or even justified. Meanwhile, they can move assests into protection, and let key figures get shelters prepared incase things get ramped up later.

The French and Arab allies better start pouring in equipment and material support for their Lybian counterparts if they are to hope to hold out, or they are going to get out flanked.

[Neon_Chaos]

It's refreshing to see that the US is not taking the driver's seat in this one, and has, instead, successfully maneuvered other nations into a broad coalition.

France and UK look like they ready to take the lead on the assaults on Libya.

The announcements coming from Ghaddafi's regime is slowly turning into delusional rants from a totalitarian about to lose power (i.e. Saddam in Iraq)

[Ryan S]

6 RAF fighter jets just flew over my house, presumably on their way to patrol the no fly zone. The pilot at the back of the group was a bit of a poser as he flipped the jet upside down as he was flying by.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

The announcements coming from Ghaddafi's regime is slowly turning into delusional rants from a totalitarian about to lose power (i.e. Saddam in Iraq)

Yes, this is also very similar to Charlie Sheen on an all-nighter.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by Ryan S

6 RAF fighter jets just flew over my house, presumably on their way to patrol the no fly zone. The pilot at the back of the group was a bit of a poser as he flipped the jet upside down as he was flying by.

Sounds like a Maverick.

[Ryan S]

According to the news they were Canadian fighter jets.

[GrantDawg]

Nothing strikes fear in dictators everywhere like Canadian fighter jets.

[Ryan S]

US fighter jets flying over now, they are refuelling at an airport about 8 miles from me.

[GrantDawg]

The French president has just said that airstrikes have begun.

[Ryan S]

Why does it look like Hillary Clinton is being filmed by a camera phone? Terrible picture quality during this speech.

[tarcone]

Good thing the Arabs dont get along. This would be a more ugly world if they did.

[sabotai]

Canada sent all of their fighters to Libya? Time for a US sneak attack!

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

It's refreshing to see that the US is not taking the driver's seat in this one, and has, instead, successfully maneuvered other nations into a broad coalition.

France and UK look like they ready to take the lead on the assaults on Libya.

The announcements coming from Ghaddafi's regime is slowly turning into delusional rants from a totalitarian about to lose power (i.e. Saddam in Iraq)

I am also happy to see the US not shouldering the burden here. I don't even like to think of the effect involvement here on the level of Afghanistan or Iraq would have on our already tattered economy.

It is also nice to see the UN operating as it is designed to operate up to this point. Hopefully the US continues to stay on the sidelines in a support role here. More than any other country France has the biggest Dog in this fight since they are the most reliant on Libyan oil, so it is nice to see them step up.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Good thing the Arabs dont get along. This would be a more ugly world if they did.

Please don't tell them

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Good thing the Arabs dont get along. This would be a more ugly world if they did.

*slowly backs away from the thread*

[GrantDawg]

Well, here comes our part. The french started, but now the US has now taken command and will be for awhile (out of the Mount Whitney) until the coalition is ready to take over later. We have launched missiles on to anti-air capabilities in the western side of Lybia. So far, no American planes confirmed in air, but British planes might be.

[CrimsonFox]

I bet we're there because they have all those cool flying carpets. And WE WANT EM! And we will HAVE THEM!

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Canada sent all of their fighters to Libya? Time for a US sneak attack!

We'll be a hockey superpower!

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

I am also happy to see the US not shouldering the burden here. I don't even like to think of the effect involvement here on the level of Afghanistan or Iraq would have on our already tattered economy.

It is also nice to see the UN operating as it is designed to operate up to this point. Hopefully the US continues to stay on the sidelines in a support role here. More than any other country France has the biggest Dog in this fight since they are the most reliant on Libyan oil, so it is nice to see them step up.

You can believe all that if you want.

[Ryan S]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

You can believe all that if you want.

Unless this goes south in a hurry, I can't imagine that the US will get involved much more than providing support for the patrolling fighters and firing cruise missiles. The US administration has made it fairly obvious that they are not really interested in getting involved.

[sterlingice]

We'll throw some missiles from boats, maybe have some low-risk flying missions that are basically training over the no-fly zone, and provide some arms and training and trainers. What else do you think we're going to do, Bucc?

SI

[Buccaneer]

My point is that we are leading this effort, shouldering the burden. Who knows where it goes from here.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

My point is that we are leading this effort, shouldering the burden. Who knows where it goes from here.

Well, I agree, once we get involved then we tend to feel responsible. If the rebels take over and then start killing each other, then what? I just have this feeling that it's not "the ENTIRE nation of Libya vs one dictator". I mean, I'm not really sure, but the fighting seems intense enough that once the rebels win, they could go mafia-vendetta style on the ousted government, it's officials, it's African mercenaries, it's loyalists, possibly jumping across borders to do the deeds...genocide even. And then everybody is gonna be pissed that the USA got involved. I've seen the movie before too, Buc.

Do I feel like ousting of Qaddafi is the right thing to do? Yes. But after the Iraqi insurgency, I understand now hidden triggers can come back to haunt us. However, I also remember avoiding further contact following the Iraqi Shia uprisings in 1991 and vacating Afghanistan in the late 70's. So what have I learned? The United States is damned if we do, damned if we don't.

Ultimately though, you have to make a decision. Either you make decisions and deal with the course you've set for yourself, or you let others make decisions and you deal with the course they've set for you.

[RainMaker]

This has nothing to do with genocide, mercenaries, or the people in the country. I just wish we'd stop hiding behind those things and would just tell people the real intentions.

[SteveMax58]

What benefit would the any of the interested parties have in disclosing true intentions?

I mean...its a bit like saying your real intentions to a girl you start conversation with at a bar. You could tell her that you're really only talking to her because you are hoping to get laid but it probably won't endear you to her...nor her friends.