The Stock Market thread

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Let's do a thought exercise. I've been hearing elsewhere about a possible "Eagle Plan".

The basics are:

You would get $10,000. On the spot. No strings except:
You cannot claim Social Security for one extra year (for example, instead of 67, 68).

That's a Sophie's Choice isn't it?

What would end up happening is that the people who will most need SS will be the ones most likely to blow 10K on purchases and then be forced to work longer when their bodies start to break down.

I'm very leery of any plan that takes lots of money away from SS, especially when it's devised by people that want to privatize it.

[RainMaker]

Why not just give people the $10k and change the social security rules so that there isn't a maximum salary threshold on paying in for a year or two?

Or add a temporary tax to capital gains to cover the cost? They are seeing most of the benefits of the trillions in bailouts for big companies. If we're going to prop up the stock market, maybe they should pay a little more in?

[JPhillips]

I'm all for more direct money to people.

[Edward64]

Holy cow. Good thing I own some Google, up 8.7% today.

Irrational exuberance part deux (or is it trois by now?).

[PilotMan]

As crazy as it sounds, I'm down 11% on the year so far. That's it.

All the unemployed, a massive drop in GDP and my 401k is off 11%.

That doesn't really make any sense to me at all.

[bhlloy]

Feels like a lot is being powered by hope right now. Once we are "reopen for business", and things aren't not back to normal and then we get hit with a second wave I think we'll be in a lot worse situation than an 11% haircut, but I hope I'm wrong.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Feels like a lot is being powered by hope right now. Once we are "reopen for business", and things aren't not back to normal and then we get hit with a second wave I think we'll be in a lot worse situation than an 11% haircut, but I hope I'm wrong.

It's what I'm expecting.

Then again, the other thing I'm expecting is that we might just see a lot of people pretending everything is ok, even as it's worse than the first wave. That's when it gets silly/scary.

SI

[JPhillips]

Jared said it's all over, didn't you hear?

[sterlingice]

I mean with 25M filing for unemployment over the last month and change, I'm sure it'll be right back to ok

SI

[Edward64]

Definitely okay with organizing global condemnation against China and encouraging companies to diversify the supply chain more and spread the wealth etc.

But give the tariffs a rest until we've half-way recovered from this mess. We had a much stronger economy back then when we had the trade war.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...?mod=home-page

Analysts said it was the guidance — or lack thereof in the case of Apple — that appeared to unsettle investors. Apple reported that profits slipped slightly but sales grew amid the spread of COVID-19, while promising investors billions more in stock repurchases and dividends, but declined to provide an outlook. Shares of Dow component Apple Inc. AAPL, -1.61% closed 1.6% lower Friday.

Shares of Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, -7.59%. , the second-largest company by market capitalization in the S&P 500, ended the session down 7.6% after it said late Thursday it topped $75 billion in sales in the first quarter as COVID-19 swept across the globe, but profit declined and the company said it might lose money in the current period as it spends to keep up with demand.

Both Apple and Amazon are among the companies that led the S&P 500 index’s comeback from the March 23 lows and were two of the best performers in April. Amazon rallied nearly 27% in April while Apple jumped 15%.
:
:
Meanwhile, global equities were pressured after President Donald Trump indicated he may consider imposing import tariffs on China.

The Washington Post on Thursday reported that U.S. officials are beginning to explore proposals for punishing China for its handling of the pandemic, including punitive import tariffs, adding to bearish sentiment on Wall Street.

[albionmoonlight]

CNN Business Headline: Worst Month For Jobs Since the Great Depression

Also on CNN Business: U.S. Stock futures up ~1%

I understand intellectually that the horrible jobs numbers were not unexpected and already priced into the market. But it still feels really really weird to see these things continuing to exist together.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

CNN Business Headline: Worst Month For Jobs Since the Great Depression

Also on CNN Business: U.S. Stock futures up ~1%

I understand intellectually that the horrible jobs numbers were not unexpected and already priced into the market. But it still feels really really weird to see these things continuing to exist together.

Yeah real eye opener. The market is really not doing anything for the average person.

[sterlingice]

Yesterday, I read wording to the effect of "the economy is already dead but we just don't know it yet".

There's this idea that when we open things back up, the economy will roar back to life. But so many people are not going to be comfortable doing things until there is a vaccine. And few businesses can survive scant business for 2+ years. Similarly, many customers and businesses have already changed their habits permanently. And many jobs lost are not coming back with another jobless recovery - probably not all 30m or whatever - but a large enough chunk of those to matter.

I know I'm pretty worried that wording is accurate.

SI

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Yesterday, I read wording to the effect of "the economy is already dead but we just don't know it yet".

There's this idea that when we open things back up, the economy will roar back to life. But so many people are not going to be comfortable doing things until there is a vaccine. And few businesses can survive scant business for 2+ years. Similarly, many customers and businesses have already changed their habits permanently. And many jobs lost are not coming back with another jobless recovery - probably not all 30m or whatever - but a large enough chunk of those to matter.

I know I'm pretty worried that wording is accurate.

SI

My wife was reading an article this morning talking about that. It detailed one of those ax throwing places in a state that just reopened, I don't remember which. They had 2 customers over the weekend, People are fooling themselves if they think we are going back to anything resembling normalcy.

[Edward64]

Wow, futures up 700+ or over 3%+ right now. Must be the reassuring words from the Fed.

[Flasch186]

Tiny positive Moderna Vaccine results and commentary.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Tiny positive Moderna Vaccine results and commentary.

Some info.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/18/healt...lts/index.html

Study subjects who received Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine had positive early results, according to the biotech company, which partnered with the National Institutes of Health to develop the vaccine.

If future studies go well, the company's vaccine could be available to the public as early as January, Dr. Tal Zaks, Moderna's chief medical officer, told CNN.

"This is absolutely good news and news that we think many have been waiting for for quite some time," Zaks said.

These early data come from the Phase 1 clinical trial, which typically studies a small number of people and focuses on whether a vaccine is safe and elicits an immune response.

The results of the study, which was led by the National Institutes Health, have not been peer reviewed or published in a medical journal.

Moderna, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is one of eight developers worldwide doing human clinical trials with a vaccine against the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization. Two others, Pfizer and Inovio, are also in the United States, one is at the University of Oxford in Britain, and four are in China.

[Hammer]

Anyone else confused with what the markets are doing? Is this for real? Struggling to make sense of it.

[RainMaker]

The Fed has spent nearly $3 trillion in the past 1p weeks to buy up corporate debt. They are clearing the balance sheet for large companies. That is why the market is going up.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The Fed has spent nearly $3 trillion in the past 1p weeks to buy up corporate debt. They are clearing the balance sheet for large companies. That is why the market is going up.

Where did you see that?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Yesterday, I read wording to the effect of "the economy is already dead but we just don't know it yet".

There's this idea that when we open things back up, the economy will roar back to life. But so many people are not going to be comfortable doing things until there is a vaccine. And few businesses can survive scant business for 2+ years. Similarly, many customers and businesses have already changed their habits permanently. And many jobs lost are not coming back with another jobless recovery - probably not all 30m or whatever - but a large enough chunk of those to matter.

I know I'm pretty worried that wording is accurate.

SI

It's 2 weeks later and I don't feel much different: "the economy is already dead but we just don't know it yet".

COVID-19 Survey Finds Half Of U.S. Homes Lost Work Income : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR

Since March 13, 47% of adults say they — or another adult in their home — have lost employment income, while 39% say they're expecting their households to earn less from work over the next four weeks.

Half? HALF. HALF!!! of all households have lost income in the last 2 months?!? There's no way this hasn't had a massive impact on the economy that we have yet to see even half of.

SI

[PilotMan]

I think that's why you see the panic from the white house. I'd be panicking too. The only real solution that I see is another massive stimulus that provides money to every person for a period of time. Simply opening up and declaring victory and hoping that everyone gets out there and spends is a losing wager.

[sterlingice]

And I think the idea at this point is to stall until, say, August, and then bribe through Election Day to keep your job.

SI

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Where did you see that?

Here is the Fed balance sheet.



Here is the program:

Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy

[Galaril]

“The Federal Reserve is about ready to fire up its promised corporate debt-buying program, and the market is starting to get excited.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the-...ate-bonds.html

[albionmoonlight]

So where's the Trump tweet criticizing the Fed for being too aggressive when Obama was President?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Hammer

Anyone else confused with what the markets are doing? Is this for real? Struggling to make sense of it.

I am still shorting the S&P, and have lost my shirt being there through these last few weeks, thus far. I remain a wrong way bettor, though.

The best takeaway, reasonable enough short term, is that the market concludes that the political apparatus will take care of the wealthy investing class, and doesn't give a fuck about working people. Thus, stocks up, jobs down. I don't see how it can last.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Thus, stocks up, jobs down. I don't see how it can last.

This is exactly how I'm reading it too. The market is responding and it's also responding to money being made available to corporations and to companies restructuring, or planning to. It seems to be a real disconnect between the money and the rest of the public that maybe doesn't have the money to invest in the markets, or is invested in their own businesses.

[RainMaker]

There was a big corporate debt bubble before this even started. This gave them an excuse to bail out all these big companies under the guise of a pandemic. Trillions of dollars can buy a stock market for awhile.

Meanwhile people complaining about others making $600/week on unemployment.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

There was a big corporate debt bubble before this even started. This gave them an excuse to bail out all these big companies under the guise of a pandemic. Trillions of dollars can buy a stock market for awhile.

Meanwhile people complaining about others making $600/week on unemployment.

We don't blink an eye at billionaires getting a few extra million but lose our minds when someone we perceive below us or even our neighbors get a little extra.

As humans we have a serious problem when we perceive someone as passing us on the ladder. Especially if we don't feel they worked hard enough to earn it. If they were already above us it's no big deal though.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Here is the Fed balance sheet.



Here is the program:

Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy

This was in reference to the 3T to "buy up corporate debt"? I don't see it.

Maybe corporate + government + consumer debt?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Atocep

We don't blink an eye at billionaires getting a few extra million but lose our minds when someone we perceive below us or even our neighbors get a little extra.

As humans we have a serious problem when we perceive someone as passing us on the ladder. Especially if we don't feel they worked hard enough to earn it. If they were already above us it's no big deal though.

And, of course, the person around us or lower on the ladder could use the little bit much more than those higher up need much more up.

SI

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Meanwhile people complaining about others making $600/week on unemployment.

Well it is stupid to pay more for unemployment than what the median worker makes.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Well it is stupid to pay more for unemployment than what the median worker makes.

Not when you want everyone to social distance and the added benefit is temporary.

[Edward64]

So what are the odds we'll get another stimulus check? That Peloton thread got me thinking ...

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Not when you want everyone to social distance and the added benefit is temporary.

Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program. I'm still taking my shoes off at the airport 20 years later because one idiot failed to ignite a bomb in his shoe.

[JPhillips]

It would require new legislation to keep the added benefit. It expires at the end of July.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So what are the odds we'll get another stimulus check? That Peloton thread got me thinking ...

Personally I think there's pretty good odds we'll be getting another stimulus check.

It is an election year you know and a good economy is good for incumbents.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It would require new legislation to keep the added benefit. It expires at the end of July.

Let's talk again in August. You seem to think that was the extent of the "temporary" bailouts. Your reasoning is some sort of belief that the Republicans don't believe and bread and circuses just as much as the Democrats. I will eat crow in August if I am wrong.

[JPhillips]

Something might get passed, but there's no way the unemployment increase extends past the cutoff. The GOP has been very clear that they won't do that and the Dems won't try very hard to fight for it.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Something might get passed, but there's no way the unemployment increase extends past the cutoff. The GOP has been very clear that they won't do that and the Dems won't try very hard to fight for it.

Like I said let's talk in August. The big/bad obstructive penny pinching GOP has extended the national debt just as much as the Democrats did under Obama. Why people believe this narrative that they won't also spend money on virtually everything boggles my mind.

[JPhillips]

It's not about debt, it's about this specific benefit. I wouldn't be surprised with another bill, even another round of checks, but for whatever reason, the UI addition is a red line.

[Edward64]

Maybe Yang had something after all, I'm getting to like this "free" money! If he wins, I hope Biden gives him a meaty job to see what his ideas are & build up his credentials.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It's not about debt, it's about this specific benefit. I wouldn't be surprised with another bill, even another round of checks, but for whatever reason, the UI addition is a red line.

Oh I know the distinction you are making and I can also guarantee the unemployment benefit will be renewed. There will be a lot of political theater I'm sure. Even some somber "hands tied behind their back" McConnell or Trump statements. But it will get done. Again I follow what you are saying but I am just saying let's come back in August.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by panerd

Oh I know the distinction you are making and I can also guarantee the unemployment benefit will be renewed. There will be a lot of political theater I'm sure. Even some somber "hands tied behind their back" McConnell or Trump statements. But it will get done. Again I follow what you are saying but I am just saying let's come back in August.

I suspect you are safe to avoid crow eating in August. I know I would not bet against election year bribes.

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

It is an election year you know and a good economy is good for incumbents.

Game theory wise, this is fascinating to me.

Trump wants to be re-elected. And, if he were a normally competent President, the White House would be on Capitol Hill lobbying for massive stimulus. The Dems would be the party having to put the breaks on it.

But Trump is not competent, and he has long ago fired anyone who is. So he is at the mercy of Congressional Republicans.

And Congressional Republicans? They got their judges. They got their tax cut. They got their deregulation. And Trump is an embarrassment. Might it be better for them in the medium run to let Biden win? And then to have Biden's first term be a COVID-driven disaster?

And, if so, don't you start planting the seeds now by choking off stimulus and letting the hole out of which Biden will have to dig be that much deeper?

Or, maybe they think Trump has a chance, and they want him to win, in which case bread and circuses for everyone.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Game theory wise, this is fascinating to me.

Trump wants to be re-elected. And, if he were a normally competent President, the White House would be on Capitol Hill lobbying for massive stimulus. The Dems would be the party having to put the breaks on it.

But Trump is not competent, and he has long ago fired anyone who is. So he is at the mercy of Congressional Republicans.

And Congressional Republicans? They got their judges. They got their tax cut. They got their deregulation. And Trump is an embarrassment. Might it be better for them in the medium run to let Biden win? And then to have Biden's first term be a COVID-driven disaster?

And, if so, don't you start planting the seeds now by choking off stimulus and letting the hole out of which Biden will have to dig be that much deeper?

Or, maybe they think Trump has a chance, and they want him to win, in which case bread and circuses for everyone.

They care about themselves. Would they rather be the party in power etc? Of course. But they will take 99 opposing party and 1 of them to get reelected and the bribes etc that come with it.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Maybe Yang had something after all, I'm getting to like this "free" money! If he wins, I hope Biden gives him a meaty job to see what his ideas are & build up his credentials.

The best way to package would be to stop calling it "free money." It should be called a comprehensive tax refund. Start considering it as a partial refund of the various taxes beyond income that everyone has to pay.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Well it is stupid to pay more for unemployment than what the median worker makes.

It is the equivalent of $15/hour and then they have to pay a massive COBRA bill. God forbid they get a few bucks as we bail out every billion dollar company that didn't plan for risk.

Will never understand the contempt people have for those in poor economic situations.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Will never understand the contempt people have for those in poor economic situations.

It's not everyone in a poor economic situation. It's other people in a poor economic situation.

It's funny because I don't know him. - YouTube