Invasion of Ukraine

[Edward64]

I don't particularly like it but I do support it. Unless one side is clearly winning, some sort of peace talks, compromise, negotiation etc. is needed. Can't be the West so China is next up.

Ukraine can definitely still surprise with their coming soon counter offensive but start laying the groundwork now (it'll take a while) and see what happens by summer. But honestly, can't quite see how any peace deal will be satisfactory to either party (unless one side is clearly losing bad).

Li Hui: China's special envoy wraps up two-day Ukraine visit as Beijing attempts to play peacemaker | CNN

Beijing’s newly appointed special envoy for the Ukraine war has met with President Volodymyr Zelensky, China confirmed Thursday as its attempts to fashion itself as a potential peacemaker in the grinding conflict, despite close ties with Russia.

The Afghanistan war cost $2.3T over 20 years. So let's call it about $100B per year. Congress has so far approved $113B for Ukraine over approx. 1.5 years. Apples & Oranges but on pure "results" for the US, Ukraine has been a bargain so far.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I don't particularly like it but I do support it. Unless one side is clearly winning, some sort of peace talks, compromise, negotiation etc. is needed. Can't be the West so China is next up.

Ukraine can definitely still surprise with their coming soon counter offensive but start laying the groundwork now (it'll take a while) and see what happens by summer. But honestly, can't quite see how any peace deal will be satisfactory to either party (unless one side is clearly losing bad).

Li Hui: China's special envoy wraps up two-day Ukraine visit as Beijing attempts to play peacemaker | CNN


The Afghanistan war cost $2.3T over 20 years. So let's call it about $100B per year. Congress has so far approved $113B for Ukraine over approx. 1.5 years. Apples & Oranges but on pure "results" for the US, Ukraine has been a bargain so far.

It would have to involve compromise on both sides, but really don't know how far they either can budge. I personally don't care who negotiates a peace as long as there is a peace that Ukraine can accept. I do wonder if this isn't some pretense to allow China to start selling weapons to Russia. "Ukraine is not reasonable, therefore the best way to end this war is to help Russia succeed."

[Edward64]

If your hypothesis is true about Chinese weapons, there is also a morbid curiosity to see how their weapons stack up.

The horrible impact to Ukrainians (and arguably normal Russians) notwithstanding, this war has been interesting as it plays out. Not just militarily but also geopolitically.

[Edward64]

Looks like allied F-16s to Ukraine. Joe hasn't actually said it but he seems to be laying the groundwork with not being opposed to it. So sometime later this year. The NATO stockpile of Migs must be running out. I am really not complaining at all about the $. Assuming logistics, training, & ready supply of missiles, I can see the F-16 greatly helping.

Javelins, Stingers, HIMARs, drones, Abrams, Bradleys, Patriots, and now F-16s. Not sure what's next on the wish list. But I am curious how our cruise missiles would fare in the theatre.

The United States has appropriated approximately $115 billion in emergency funding to support Ukraine since February 24, 2022. This aid provides money for Ukraine, American partners in regions affected by the conflict, and US national security programs.

Here’s another way to think of it: the federal government spent $6.48 trillion last fiscal year, meaning the money spent on Ukraine today would be equivalent to approximately 2% of the US budget.

[Edward64]

Definitely concerned about pro-Ukrainian Russian "Freedom for Russia" partisans taking the initiative and invading/attacking a town inside Russia (Belgorod), and the possible unintended consequences.

... but can't help but root them on. I hope they live to fight another day.

[cartman]

WOLVERINES

[Edward64]

Ah ... Patrick Swayze, Charlie Sheen, Jennifer Grey ... not great acting but one of those B-grade cult movies.

The remake did not do it justice. One of the streaming giants should do a remake with multiple seasons.


EDIT: be nice if Ukraine launched their counter offensive now

[Brian Swartz]

Weather will likely determine the timing of that.

[Edward64]

Haven't seen a video like this before. A sea (?) drone attacking and allegedly hitting a Russian ship

#Ukraine: Yesterday, MoD claimed to foil a Ukrainian attempt to attack the "Ivan Khurs" intelligence ship in the Black Sea with 3x kamikaze uncrewed surface vessels, showing one destroyed by fire from the ship.

However, video from sources shows that a USV reached the ship.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...htmode%3Dfalse

[GrantDawg]

Rumors in the world of rumors, the President of Belarus traveled to Moscow after several weeks of speculation of an illness. After meeting with Putin, he was reportedly rushed to the hospital and critical condition.
Could be false, but there is speculation Russia takes over Belarus as a "win" and pulls out of Ukraine.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

TBH considering that Belarus is already politically in the Russian camp, a relatively small price to pay if there is a pull out from Ukraine.

I see reports on no. of drones, missiles shot down but nothing broken out for the Patriot system (understandably). I'm assuming they are rationing the Patriot missiles for the really big stuff. Interested in those numbers once there is a post mortem.

[Edward64]

Apparently a dam has been blown up.

Pro-Ukrainian redditors are having a fit. I've not seen any details on MSM but no surprise considering the time of day/night. More to come by morning.

BREAKING: Russian forces have destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam, Ukraine's Operational Command South says

Supposedly a video of the dam

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...m_is_blown_up/

[Edward64]

Guess it was for real.

Reading the misc reporting below, seems like lots of impact to people, no massive casualties (yet), no danger to the nuclear plant, conflicting reports on who did what etc. Unsure how this impacts the counter offensive (if there was going to be one) in that area but obviously a huge distraction for the good guys.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news...-23/index.html

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Guess it was for real.

Reading the misc reporting below, seems like lots of impact to people, no massive casualties (yet), no danger to the nuclear plant, conflicting reports on who did what etc. Unsure how this impacts the counter offensive (if there was going to be one) in that area but obviously a huge distraction for the good guys.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news...-23/index.html

The flooding will definitely slow a counter-offensive down. It seems like a last-gasp effort on Russia to stymie an attack. It has long been feared they would do this.

[Edward64]

I guess the counter offensive has officially started.

Lots of conflicting reports right now but does seem Ukraine has lost several Bradleys and Leopards. Not sure how meaningful that is if they truly won some nice ground ... and that is unknown right now (but hoping for the best).

I'm sure things will become more clear as the offensive continues. Ukraine needs to have some nice wins otherwise pressure for some sort of negotiated settlement will increase.

[Edward64]

Welp, add +1 to the nuclear club.

Leader says Belarus now has Russian nuclear weapons, wouldn’t hesitate to use them | The Hill

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Tuesday that his country has received Russian nuclear weapons and would not hesitate to use them if provoked.

“We have got the missiles and bombs from Russia,” Lukashenko told Russian state media, according to The Associated Press, adding, “Not all of them, little by little.”

“God forbid I have to make a decision to use those weapons today, but there would be no hesitation if we face an aggression,” he said in a separate statement Tuesday.

During a meeting with the Lukashenko last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said tactical nuclear weapons would not be deployed to Belarus until storage facilities were ready in early July.

However, the Belarusian president said Tuesday that “everything is ready” and “it could take just a few days for us to get what we had asked for and even a bit more,” the AP reported.

[GrantDawg]

I guess Wagner Group is fed up:

Full message of Prigozhi "declaring war on the Russian Ministry of Defence:

"PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped.

They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we… pic.twitter.com/1tCXPVn07p

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 23, 2023

[Edward64]

He's been bitching for a couple months at least.

Nothing's changed in the Russian MoD, nor has he fallen out of a window (yet). I don't know why Putin allows this to continue, you'd think he would take one side or another by now.



Meanwhile ... the counter offensive is slogging through, not as successful as many had hoped (e.g. like last Fall's successes). Hopefully continued pressure will result in a nice breakthrough and collapse of Russian lines.

[SirFozzie]

They're fighting each other, so Putin doesn't mind as much. If they were working hand in glove, he'd be afraid they'd turn on him

[SirFozzie]

Never Mind: Shit just got real. Incitement to Armed Rebellion? He fucked.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ssia-military/

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Never Mind: Shit just got real. Incitement to Armed Rebellion? He fucked.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ssia-military/

Reminds me of the scene in Mystery Men where Casanova electricutes all the frat boys on the stairs.

"I am soooo evil zat I kill my own guys!"

[Bobble]

"Captain, exactly how many toggle flips in toto are involved in this procedure?"

[JPhillips]

Wagner has issued a statement telling the National Guard to pick the correct side or face consequences.

[Thomkal]

wow pretty crazy if a coup helps stop the war in Ukraine

[GrantDawg]

Wagner has crossed into Russia with no resistance. They have already occupied Rostov. It is going to be fascinating where this ends.

[GrantDawg]

Interesting statement:

Here’s my thoughts, for all those asking: I’d put a lot of money on the @WhiteHouse & @POTUS knowing more of what is happening in Russia than Putin does.

— MarkHertling (@MarkHertling) June 24, 2023

[SirFozzie]

I'd caution folks that a lot of this is just from taking Wagner statements at face value, without video/photo proof. (regarding say, Rostov for example)

[Edward64]

Love the confusion going on right now. It's be great if Wagner is really moving the opposite direction.

But, if true, I just don't think he has the manpower or ammo to last for long. Happy to be surprised though.

[GrantDawg]

It looks to be getting hot:

Prigozhin: a military helicopter just opened fire on Wagner's convoy and was shot down by Wagner PMC.

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 24, 2023

[GrantDawg]

Russian television has reportedly been hacked and showing Prigozin's statement on repeat.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Love the confusion going on right now. It's be great if Wagner is really moving the opposite direction.

But, if true, I just don't think he has the manpower or ammo to last for long. Happy to be surprised though.

Reportedly, Wagner is not alone. Some Russian military are suppporting him.

[bob]

Quite honestly, I’m not sure it’s the greatest for the planet if Russia falls into civil war.

[PilotMan]

You mean when the Republicans demand we send the Russians aid?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by bob

Quite honestly, I’m not sure it’s the greatest for the planet if Russia falls into civil war.

Yeah I'm not sure any of the other oligarchs/generals, etc would be any better than Putin for Ukraine or the West

[GrantDawg]

Rostov houses the command of the Southern Military District and the Operational Headquarters for the war in Ukraine. It’s also one of Russia most important logistical hubs for the war. Wagner could get it hands on enormous stockpiles.

— Alexander S. Vindman ❎ (@AVindman) June 24, 2023

[GrantDawg]

Also:

First daylight images of what looks like Wagner troops rolling past Russian Interior Ministry paramilitary forces on the outskirts of Rostov-on-Don. The paramilitary forces seem helpless to stop Wagner.

— Alexander S. Vindman ❎ (@AVindman) June 24, 2023

[GrantDawg]

And:

Wagner forces have made it to the Southern Military District Headquarters in Rostov. pic.twitter.com/BVKmfuWWEm

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 24, 2023

[GrantDawg]

What gets me is Russia not that different than anywhere else. The woman just filming on the corner as the tanks aim at the building. "F- safety, I dot to get this on Telegram"

[Thomkal]

Yeah not sure I'd wanna be out there on the streets with tanks and soldiers right now.

[GrantDawg]

There are videos of huge lines of Wagner troops moving into the Southern command building, and lines of citizens watching and filming.

[Edward64]

Great, lots of videos in Russian social media. Get the word out, add to the FUD.

Hope Ukraine can take advantage of this somehow.

[GrantDawg]

Videos of an airbase outside Moscow on fire, and a National Guard unit refused mobilization near Moscow.

[GrantDawg]

First I have heard, but there were also Wagner attacks on Russian troops in Ukraine. Russian regular troops along with Wagner forces attacked supply depots in Bakhmut while the Ukrainians watched and added some shelling.

[Edward64]

Lots of Rostov videos here

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors

[Edward64]

We should offer Putin asylum.

In Florida. Right beside Mar-a-lago.

[GrantDawg]

Youtube is shining on this. Several live streams showing videos and reports as they happen. One showed a local Rostov reporter interviewing soldiers in the street confirming the troops were Wagner's.

[PilotMan]

I feel like I've seen this sort of thing play out in Civ about a thousand times. Usually against me.

[Edward64]

Zelenskyy today

https://twitter.com/i/status/1672335179220672513

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I feel like I've seen this sort of thing play out in Civ about a thousand times. Usually against me.

was it Gandhi?

[dubb93]

Just out of curiosity who do we root for here? Do we really want Wagner in charge of all those nukes?