WW XCIV Group Therapy - Game Over! - Page 30

The Jackal · 05-14-2009, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

My mage. Spirit=gay

Anyone who was geared for the spirit buff/changes in general had to of been massively undergeared and near the bottom of their guilds damage meters prior to the patch.

Sucks. My best is a priest and she's only 72 so I haven't even gotten to experience high level armor/build concerns.

dubb93 · 05-14-2009, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Sucks. My best is a priest and she's only 72 so I haven't even gotten to experience high level armor/build concerns.

Yea, I guess my major issue was I spent the time getting T 7.5, well most of it, the robes were teh suck, and all the other best raid epic gear I could only to have blizz re-build my class to the point where I would have been forced to re-gear just to get into ulduar. Fuck that. Blizz needs to just learn to leave some things alone sometimes. Classes shouldn't have their mechanics radically redesigned by a patch. That is what expansions are for. Slight tweaks are what patches are for.

Something like spirit which was avoided like the plague by all high level raiding mages with a brain all of a sudden becomes a HUGE mechanic to the class while other passive buffs get nerfed in an effort to force us to re-gear and stack spirit....that is a radical mechanic redesign.

Lathum · 05-14-2009, 09:36 PM

I have no seperate win condition, I win with the village and no onger have my own agenda, I did everything I needed to do today and we got a wolf to boot, hence a good day for me and the village

Lathum · 05-14-2009, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Having said that, I hope whatever Lathum did/will be able to do has a positive impact for all of us, not just for him.

it will

The Jackal · 05-14-2009, 09:38 PM

Well that sort've bothers me that we're not going to learn nothing about that.

Lathum · 05-14-2009, 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Lathum, please don't be offended if I'm wrong and these are your actual thoughts. With your discussion with Alan T and then this post, I'm wondering something really odd.

1- Are you allowed to post your real beliefs?

2- Do you have to post the opposite of what you really believe?

3- Have you ever played World of Warcraft?

See, number three tests his answer to #2.

yes

no

yes

The Jackal · 05-14-2009, 09:38 PM

Hrm, I tricked myself into a double negative. I meant we're not going to learn anything about that.

If you say it will, hopefully it will.

Passacaglia · 05-14-2009, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I have no seperate win condition, I win with the village and no onger have my own agenda, I did everything I needed to do today and we got a wolf to boot, hence a good day for me and the village

If you have no separate win condition, why did you need to do things?

PurdueBrad · 05-14-2009, 09:41 PM

Thanks Lathum, guess I'm wrong and you actually do think I'm a wolf. That's okay though, I trust you still.

Autumn · 05-14-2009, 09:42 PM

BK, Pass and PB seem interested in driving third candidates today, looking at things that way.

Lathum · 05-14-2009, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

If you have no separate win condition, why did you need to do things?

I said earlier I needed to trigger something for my role.

I hope I havent said to much

hoopsguy · 05-14-2009, 09:44 PM

EagleFan votes, Day 1:
251 - votes PB
323 - unvotes PB, votes Hoops
372 - unvotes Hoops, votes PB
381 - unvotes PB, votes Lathum (note - I initially had this down incorrectly on my spreadsheet posted earlier, showed PB with vote change and not EF)
452 - unvotes Lathum, votes PB (at this point EF had 4 votes, NTN 3, this was 2nd vote on PB)
713 - unvotes PB, votes NTN (sealed vote on NTN right at deadline, 7-5)

PurdueBrad · 05-14-2009, 09:45 PM

Lathum, looking back, did something happen just prior to your "no, no, no" post that was your final trigger? Or was it more than a half hour earlier or later?

Poli · 05-14-2009, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think you have to add DT and clap in there as honorable mentions.

By the way, I totally meant to 'accidentally' forget to unvote EF.

I guess that's where I started miscounting then. Didn't EF "forget" some sort of formatting and it still count?

Poli · 05-14-2009, 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

BK, Pass and PB seem interested in driving third candidates today, looking at things that way.

I was as well. I still have to think about Telle, to be honest.

Passacaglia · 05-14-2009, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poli

I guess that's where I started miscounting then. Didn't EF "forget" some sort of formatting and it still count?

EF's thing was Day 1. And I was kidding -- I actually didn't really mean to 'forget'.

Poli · 05-14-2009, 09:52 PM

Well, there I was giving you credit.

Lathum · 05-14-2009, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Lathum, looking back, did something happen just prior to your "no, no, no" post that was your final trigger? Or was it more than a half hour earlier or later?

that post had nothing to do with it

PurdueBrad · 05-14-2009, 09:59 PM

Well, I'm getting ready to leave for the night and I'm not done trying to figure out Lathum's play today (unless his win condition is for some reason to get me lynched, which Danny would probably do to me).

You've seen my trust and distrust list and I hope you are all using your myriad of powers on me tonight.

hoopsguy · 05-14-2009, 10:01 PM

What I consider important Day 1 votes:

396 - Lathum unvotes Abe, votes EF (first person to 3 votes on day, vote did not move off EF after this)
416 - Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes EF (pushes EF up to 4 votes, all of a sudden wolves not looking so good, 2 vote lead over NTN. Vote never moves after this)
420 - BK votes NTN (closes gap to 1, vote never moves)
425 - Abe votes NTN (ties it, vote never moves)
443 - Pass unvotes NTN, votes No Lynch (no real comment, see later post)
455 - Autumn votes PB (moves PB within 1, after earlier expressing desire for 3rd candidate, vote will move again)
532 - Pass votes for NTN (ties it back up again after realizing No Lynch is not much of an option. Vote does not move again)
536 - PB unvotes EF, votes NTN (big two vote swing, 5-3 NTN now. PB's vote will move again)
577 - Telle unvotes Abe, puts PB in 2nd, ahead of EF (5-4-3, Telle's vote does not move again)
581 - PB unvotes NTN, votes Telle (4-4-3 between three main candidates, PB is moving his vote again. Note that putting vote on a non-candidate gives him maximum flexibility for later)
595 - MartinD votes PB (puts him in lead, 5-4-3, MartinD's vote does not move)
603 - NTN unvotes PF, votes PB (two vote lead for PB now, fast runup on votes for him as 3rd candidate)
604 - Autumn unvotes PB, votes Telle (narrows gap again, that is last vote move for Autumn)
605 - Chief votes EF (ties EF with NTN, one back of PB. No vote moves from Chief after this)
668 - Poli moves his vote from a fringe candidate to another non-leader in Telle (who now moves to 3 votes, 2 off the lead. No further moves by Poli)
669 - PB unvotes Telle, votes NTN (ties it again with NTN instead of the wolf EF. Not done moving yet)
679 - PB unvotes NTN, votes Telle (realizing that Telle is in striking distance, but leaving him in lead. Still one more move from him left)
699 - Alan votes NTN (puts him in tie with PB)
701 - NTN unvotes PB, votes Telle (NTN puts himself back in lead, now three way tie for 2nd. Not his last move)
707 - NTN unvotes Telle, votes EF (villager picks wolf in his last move, ties it up close to deadlin)
711 - PB unvotes Telle, votes NTN (wrong choice between villager and wolf)
713 - EF finishes it off

hoopsguy · 05-14-2009, 10:06 PM

Day 1 impressions, will obviously change with Day 2 info:
Looking good - Lathum, Dubb, Chief
Looking bad - Alan, Pass, BK, Abe
Looking worst of all - PB (deadline vote, chose wrong between villager/wolf)

PurdueBrad · 05-14-2009, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Looking worst of all - PB

Wahoo.

Alan T · 05-14-2009, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Day 1 impressions, will obviously change with Day 2 info:
Looking good - Lathum, Dubb, Chief
Looking bad - Alan, Pass, BK, Abe
Looking worst of all - PB (deadline vote, chose wrong between villager/wolf)

I fully accept looking bad day 1 with what we know now. That is fine with me. I think this recap is simplistic. I think it completely ignores the middle movement when it was a NTN - EF race where the votes shifted to PB. People commented often that people were trying to save NTN, but I still feel that it was an attempt to save EF instead. Telle and MartinD belong in that group and I feel they look worse then anyone else.

DaddyTorgo · 05-14-2009, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think you have to add DT and clap in there as honorable mentions.

By the way, I totally meant to 'accidentally' forget to unvote EF.

why? because i voted PB before i went to bed and then unvoted him in the morning? that's stupid

hoopsguy · 05-14-2009, 10:24 PM

What I consider important Day 2 votes (outside of obvious "pretty much all of them" in two-horse race):
810 - DT follows Lathum on PB (2nd vote, important because DT is suggesting that he deserves significant credit for his early vote on EF)
846/875 - both Clap and Dubb unvote PB, bringing the margin back down from 5-0 to 3-0
951 - Alan throws out 2nd candidate, who turns out to be a wolf
969 - Autumn backs Alan on 2nd candidate
971 - DT changes horses, tying it back up 3-3
985 - BK votes me, introducing 3rd candidate (more noteworthy because he had a bad vote the previous day, not his last vote on this day)
1016 - Pass follows BK on me (same logic as BK, 2nd bad vote for him, not his last vote)
1017 - PB follows on me (once again foregoing an opportunity to vote for EF, tally is now 4-3-2 EF/Me/PB)
1020 - Telle votes PB (locked in)
1045 - Abe votes PB (locked in, 2nd day in a row he not voted for wolf when wolf was in lead)
1047/1050 - Jackal votes for wolf EF, then switches to PB (locked in)
1080 - Saldana votes EF (ties it, but will move his vote later)
1112 - MartinD votes EF (breaks tie, vote doesn't move. big vote, in my mind)
1120 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes PB (again missing a chance to vote for a known wolf, not done moving yet)
1123 - PF votes EF (see MartinD above)
1137 - Lerriuqs votes PB (ties it again)
1157 - Pass unvotes Hoops, votes EF (puts wolf in lead, would be huge vote except for #1256)
1166 - Chief votes PB, ties it (changing gears from yesterday, hard for me to condemn it too much when his voting pattern matches my own)
1169 - PB unvotes me, votes EF (self-defense, good vote)
1194 - Saldana unvotes EF, votes me (tying it up, not a good vote at all, he stays here for duration)
1199 - Poli votes PB (misses chance to vote for known wolf, puts PB in lead, but will move again at deadline)
1256 - Pass forgets to unvotes, casts vote for Telle (important because his vote was on EF, which was critical down the stretch but it does not seem he wanted his vote there)
1258 - PB unvotes EF, votes Telle (puts himself up 2, Telle is way back)
1261 - Poli unvotes PB, follows on Telle (2nd vote change, neither on EF, but unvote on PB puts EF at more risk)
1265 - BK is back to voting for me, unvoting EF (still has not voted for EF in the game, although this unvote ties it)
1285 - Clap votes Telle (Telle is now 3 back of co-leaders)
1291 - BK unvotes me, votes Telle (fast rising candidate, again missing a chance to put in a really good vote on EF)
1315 - PB unvotes Telle, votes EF (complete self-preservation)
1318 - Poli unvotes Telle, votes EF (deadline snipe, probably open for interpreation)

hoopsguy · 05-14-2009, 10:28 PM

Day 2 impressions (not in a vacuum, combined with Day 1 vibe):
Looking good - Alan, Autumn, MartinD, PackerFanatic
Looking bad (this is harder, not sure what to make of PB) - BK, Abe, Clap, Saldana
Unsure - PB (key player, needs to be understood), Saldana, Clap, DT

hoopsguy · 05-14-2009, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I fully accept looking bad day 1 with what we know now. That is fine with me. I think this recap is simplistic. I think it completely ignores the middle movement when it was a NTN - EF race where the votes shifted to PB. People commented often that people were trying to save NTN, but I still feel that it was an attempt to save EF instead. Telle and MartinD belong in that group and I feel they look worse then anyone else.

Fully agree that it is somewhat simplistic, but I think it goes a little beyond just the votes as the timing of the votes (with all the unvotes) was pretty important.

I would argue that MartinD's vote today looks very good, so he is not on my radar the same way he appears to be for you.

I've got Telle in a middle group. She has been up and down in voting the last two days during late action; not quite sure what to make of that.

Telle's posts were definitely more "save NTN" than they were "save EF", but the people I thought pushed the hardest for 3rd candidates on Day 1 were Telle and Autumn. I feel better about Autumn right now than I do Telle, but Telle is not at the bottom of my list like she is for you. I've got her smack in the middle at the moment, pending further information on PB.

For what it is worth, I'm a little closer to believing PB = villager now than I was earlier. I got a sense of genuine remorse for having to put the vote on EF when he couldn't counter-vote. If he faked that, then good for him. I still think his voting patterns look very poor but I certainly acknowledge that he has been under duress most of the game and that makes it tougher to make good decisions.

Abe Sargent · 05-14-2009, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Day 1 impressions, will obviously change with Day 2 info:
Looking good - Lathum, Dubb, Chief
Looking bad - Alan, Pass, BK, Abe
Looking worst of all - PB (deadline vote, chose wrong between villager/wolf)

Why am I looking bad, exactly?

hoopsguy · 05-14-2009, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Day 2 impressions (not in a vacuum, combined with Day 1 vibe):
Looking good - Alan, Autumn, MartinD, PackerFanatic
Looking bad (this is harder, not sure what to make of PB) - BK, Abe, Clap, Saldana
Unsure - PB (key player, needs to be understood), Saldana, Clap, DT

I've got Saldana on here twice. He probably belongs on the "unsure" at this point more than the "bad". But he is among the people who never voted for EF this game and today he actually took his vote off EF to chase me. Neither one of his votes have been on leading candidates, as Dubb got 1 vote D1 and I got 1 vote D2.

Autumn · 05-14-2009, 10:38 PM

Good analysis Hoops. I found similar things in looking through them. I am leaning away from the possibility that Purdue is bad, though his voting record could be read as suspect. I voted Eaglefan this morning based on analysis that the wolves were trying to protect him in a runoff against PB. While there is an outside chance that they're both wolves, but PB is more important to the wolves, I'm going to operate for now with the assumption that that's not the case.

Here's another question. Who was still around near deadline that did not switch votes. I'm particularly wondering about those who voted a third candidate. If they were available to switch votes at the end and save EagleFan but didn't that speaks a lot -- assuming PB is good. If there vote was stuck because they were absent, not so much.

Autumn · 05-14-2009, 10:39 PM

I would add Dubb to a looks good category. He voted for EagleFan both days, with votes that put EagleFan in a lead (4-2 both times). They were early votes but they certainly look good.

hoopsguy · 05-14-2009, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Why am I looking bad, exactly?

Not voting for EF on either day. On Day 1 you put in a vote that tied up NTN with EF at 4-4. On Day 2 you put in a vote that tied up PB with EF.

Both were reasonably early votes, where others had the opportunity to really settle the matter.

You've also suggested that you trust BK a lot back on Day 1, and his voting record is worse than yours at this point. Creating a linkage to him is probably not the best thing in the world in terms of my trust lists. I don't think that you are both bad (would be kinda ballsy for you to do if you were both wolves) but I think there is a pretty good chance that one of you is.

hoopsguy · 05-14-2009, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

Here's another question. Who was still around near deadline that did not switch votes. I'm particularly wondering about those who voted a third candidate. If they were available to switch votes at the end and save EagleFan but didn't that speaks a lot -- assuming PB is good. If there vote was stuck because they were absent, not so much.

I'm the wrong guy to answer this. I was in and out yesterday during the last hour (around for last 10 minutes, I think) but completely missed last 75 minutes today.

Poli · 05-14-2009, 10:43 PM

Off to bed.

hoopsguy · 05-14-2009, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I would add Dubb to a looks good category. He voted for EagleFan both days, with votes that put EagleFan in a lead (4-2 both times). They were early votes but they certainly look good.

Agreed, I had him on the "good" list from D1 and he probably should be in that category after Day 2 as well.

I don't think that this is anything close to a full-blown trust list, but it hopefully serves as a tickler for people with roles when they are making decisions tonight.

Abe Sargent · 05-14-2009, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Not voting for EF on either day. On Day 1 you put in a vote that tied up NTN with EF at 4-4. On Day 2 you put in a vote that tied up PB with EF.

Both were reasonably early votes, where others had the opportunity to really settle the matter.

You've also suggested that you trust BK a lot back on Day 1, and his voting record is worse than yours at this point. Creating a linkage to him is probably not the best thing in the world in terms of my trust lists. I don't think that you are both bad (would be kinda ballsy for you to do if you were both wolves) but I think there is a pretty good chance that one of you is.

Okay, fair enough.

Abe Sargent · 05-14-2009, 10:46 PM

Can't argue logic

hoopsguy · 05-14-2009, 10:47 PM

I've got about 15 more minutes tonight if people want to talk about the lists.

I'll let people slot me where they feel comfortable on the lists. I think hindsight suggests I had a good D1 and not a very good D2.

If people do not think that I'm the right person to make the interpretation of the data, because they do not trust me then I would urge them to take their crack. I've posted all of my voting info in the thread. So have at it

Abe Sargent · 05-14-2009, 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Agreed, I had him on the "good" list from D1 and he probably should be in that category after Day 2 as well.

I don't think that this is anything close to a full-blown trust list, but it hopefully serves as a tickler for people with roles when they are making decisions tonight.

If you are thinking of going BK tomorrow, I would instead prefer you vote me. Now, I'd rather you not vote either one, but if that's the way you are going, me over him please.

Autumn · 05-14-2009, 10:51 PM

I"m off to bed, I won't make it to see the night results. Here's hoping good things happen.

Autumn · 05-14-2009, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

If you are thinking of going BK tomorrow, I would instead prefer you vote me. Now, I'd rather you not vote either one, but if that's the way you are going, me over him please.

I love how a good vote analysis flushes things out.

Interesting.

Lathum · 05-15-2009, 12:03 AM

deadline?

dubb93 · 05-15-2009, 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

deadline?

Danny said he would be late and not to wait up on him. Let me find it and quote it real quick.

dubb93 · 05-15-2009, 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Also, I may be running night 2 later than normal tonight, so don't wait up for the results

.

Post #1344

Lathum · 05-15-2009, 12:09 AM

dubb93 · 05-15-2009, 12:35 AM

I'm starting to think he was pretty damn serious about this whole don't wait up thing.

Abe Sargent · 05-15-2009, 12:38 AM

Yup, looks it

Lathum · 05-15-2009, 12:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

I'm starting to think he was pretty damn serious about this whole don't wait up thing.

yeah. I'll be up a bit longer I hope. Getting deep into a poker tournament and doing some reading for school

The Jackal · 05-15-2009, 01:38 AM

Well, I'm still around. Where are you, CR?

Chief Rum · 05-15-2009, 02:11 AM

Heh, wrapping up my export for my OOTP league. But then I'm off to bed.

05-14-2009, 09:52 PM	#1467
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	Well, there I was giving you credit. __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

05-14-2009, 10:43 PM	#1484
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	Off to bed. __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

05-14-2009, 10:46 PM	#1487
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	Can't argue logic __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

05-15-2009, 12:09 AM	#1495
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	oh

05-15-2009, 12:38 AM	#1497
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	Yup, looks it __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

05-14-2009, 09:36 PM	#1453
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I have no seperate win condition, I win with the village and no onger have my own agenda, I did everything I needed to do today and we got a wolf to boot, hence a good day for me and the village

05-14-2009, 09:38 PM	#1455
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Well that sort've bothers me that we're not going to learn nothing about that.

05-14-2009, 09:38 PM	#1457
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Hrm, I tricked myself into a double negative. I meant we're not going to learn anything about that. If you say it will, hopefully it will.

05-14-2009, 09:42 PM	#1460
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	BK, Pass and PB seem interested in driving third candidates today, looking at things that way.

05-14-2009, 09:44 PM	#1462
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	EagleFan votes, Day 1: 251 - votes PB 323 - unvotes PB, votes Hoops 372 - unvotes Hoops, votes PB 381 - unvotes PB, votes Lathum (note - I initially had this down incorrectly on my spreadsheet posted earlier, showed PB with vote change and not EF) 452 - unvotes Lathum, votes PB (at this point EF had 4 votes, NTN 3, this was 2nd vote on PB) 713 - unvotes PB, votes NTN (sealed vote on NTN right at deadline, 7-5)

05-14-2009, 10:01 PM	#1470
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	What I consider important Day 1 votes: 396 - Lathum unvotes Abe, votes EF (first person to 3 votes on day, vote did not move off EF after this) 416 - Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes EF (pushes EF up to 4 votes, all of a sudden wolves not looking so good, 2 vote lead over NTN. Vote never moves after this) 420 - BK votes NTN (closes gap to 1, vote never moves) 425 - Abe votes NTN (ties it, vote never moves) 443 - Pass unvotes NTN, votes No Lynch (no real comment, see later post) 455 - Autumn votes PB (moves PB within 1, after earlier expressing desire for 3rd candidate, vote will move again) 532 - Pass votes for NTN (ties it back up again after realizing No Lynch is not much of an option. Vote does not move again) 536 - PB unvotes EF, votes NTN (big two vote swing, 5-3 NTN now. PB's vote will move again) 577 - Telle unvotes Abe, puts PB in 2nd, ahead of EF (5-4-3, Telle's vote does not move again) 581 - PB unvotes NTN, votes Telle (4-4-3 between three main candidates, PB is moving his vote again. Note that putting vote on a non-candidate gives him maximum flexibility for later) 595 - MartinD votes PB (puts him in lead, 5-4-3, MartinD's vote does not move) 603 - NTN unvotes PF, votes PB (two vote lead for PB now, fast runup on votes for him as 3rd candidate) 604 - Autumn unvotes PB, votes Telle (narrows gap again, that is last vote move for Autumn) 605 - Chief votes EF (ties EF with NTN, one back of PB. No vote moves from Chief after this) 668 - Poli moves his vote from a fringe candidate to another non-leader in Telle (who now moves to 3 votes, 2 off the lead. No further moves by Poli) 669 - PB unvotes Telle, votes NTN (ties it again with NTN instead of the wolf EF. Not done moving yet) 679 - PB unvotes NTN, votes Telle (realizing that Telle is in striking distance, but leaving him in lead. Still one more move from him left) 699 - Alan votes NTN (puts him in tie with PB) 701 - NTN unvotes PB, votes Telle (NTN puts himself back in lead, now three way tie for 2nd. Not his last move) 707 - NTN unvotes Telle, votes EF (villager picks wolf in his last move, ties it up close to deadlin) 711 - PB unvotes Telle, votes NTN (wrong choice between villager and wolf) 713 - EF finishes it off

05-14-2009, 10:06 PM	#1471
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Day 1 impressions, will obviously change with Day 2 info: Looking good - Lathum, Dubb, Chief Looking bad - Alan, Pass, BK, Abe Looking worst of all - PB (deadline vote, chose wrong between villager/wolf)

05-14-2009, 10:24 PM	#1475
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	What I consider important Day 2 votes (outside of obvious "pretty much all of them" in two-horse race): 810 - DT follows Lathum on PB (2nd vote, important because DT is suggesting that he deserves significant credit for his early vote on EF) 846/875 - both Clap and Dubb unvote PB, bringing the margin back down from 5-0 to 3-0 951 - Alan throws out 2nd candidate, who turns out to be a wolf 969 - Autumn backs Alan on 2nd candidate 971 - DT changes horses, tying it back up 3-3 985 - BK votes me, introducing 3rd candidate (more noteworthy because he had a bad vote the previous day, not his last vote on this day) 1016 - Pass follows BK on me (same logic as BK, 2nd bad vote for him, not his last vote) 1017 - PB follows on me (once again foregoing an opportunity to vote for EF, tally is now 4-3-2 EF/Me/PB) 1020 - Telle votes PB (locked in) 1045 - Abe votes PB (locked in, 2nd day in a row he not voted for wolf when wolf was in lead) 1047/1050 - Jackal votes for wolf EF, then switches to PB (locked in) 1080 - Saldana votes EF (ties it, but will move his vote later) 1112 - MartinD votes EF (breaks tie, vote doesn't move. big vote, in my mind) 1120 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes PB (again missing a chance to vote for a known wolf, not done moving yet) 1123 - PF votes EF (see MartinD above) 1137 - Lerriuqs votes PB (ties it again) 1157 - Pass unvotes Hoops, votes EF (puts wolf in lead, would be huge vote except for #1256) 1166 - Chief votes PB, ties it (changing gears from yesterday, hard for me to condemn it too much when his voting pattern matches my own) 1169 - PB unvotes me, votes EF (self-defense, good vote) 1194 - Saldana unvotes EF, votes me (tying it up, not a good vote at all, he stays here for duration) 1199 - Poli votes PB (misses chance to vote for known wolf, puts PB in lead, but will move again at deadline) 1256 - Pass forgets to unvotes, casts vote for Telle (important because his vote was on EF, which was critical down the stretch but it does not seem he wanted his vote there) 1258 - PB unvotes EF, votes Telle (puts himself up 2, Telle is way back) 1261 - Poli unvotes PB, follows on Telle (2nd vote change, neither on EF, but unvote on PB puts EF at more risk) 1265 - BK is back to voting for me, unvoting EF (still has not voted for EF in the game, although this unvote ties it) 1285 - Clap votes Telle (Telle is now 3 back of co-leaders) 1291 - BK unvotes me, votes Telle (fast rising candidate, again missing a chance to put in a really good vote on EF) 1315 - PB unvotes Telle, votes EF (complete self-preservation) 1318 - Poli unvotes Telle, votes EF (deadline snipe, probably open for interpreation)

05-14-2009, 10:28 PM	#1476
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Day 2 impressions (not in a vacuum, combined with Day 1 vibe): Looking good - Alan, Autumn, MartinD, PackerFanatic Looking bad (this is harder, not sure what to make of PB) - BK, Abe, Clap, Saldana Unsure - PB (key player, needs to be understood), Saldana, Clap, DT

05-14-2009, 10:38 PM	#1480
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Good analysis Hoops. I found similar things in looking through them. I am leaning away from the possibility that Purdue is bad, though his voting record could be read as suspect. I voted Eaglefan this morning based on analysis that the wolves were trying to protect him in a runoff against PB. While there is an outside chance that they're both wolves, but PB is more important to the wolves, I'm going to operate for now with the assumption that that's not the case. Here's another question. Who was still around near deadline that did not switch votes. I'm particularly wondering about those who voted a third candidate. If they were available to switch votes at the end and save EagleFan but didn't that speaks a lot -- assuming PB is good. If there vote was stuck because they were absent, not so much.

05-14-2009, 10:39 PM	#1481
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I would add Dubb to a looks good category. He voted for EagleFan both days, with votes that put EagleFan in a lead (4-2 both times). They were early votes but they certainly look good.

05-14-2009, 10:47 PM	#1488
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I've got about 15 more minutes tonight if people want to talk about the lists. I'll let people slot me where they feel comfortable on the lists. I think hindsight suggests I had a good D1 and not a very good D2. If people do not think that I'm the right person to make the interpretation of the data, because they do not trust me then I would urge them to take their crack. I've posted all of my voting info in the thread. So have at it

05-14-2009, 10:51 PM	#1490
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I"m off to bed, I won't make it to see the night results. Here's hoping good things happen.

05-15-2009, 12:03 AM	#1492
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	deadline?

05-15-2009, 01:38 AM	#1499
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Well, I'm still around. Where are you, CR?

05-15-2009, 02:11 AM	#1500
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Heh, wrapping up my export for my OOTP league. But then I'm off to bed. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

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