WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, that is making an assumption about the order of operations. But I'll bite.

What does that suggest about the remaining wolf/wolves? My initial reaction is that they were less likely to attract attention than Clap.

Also, if they were worried about the Thief then their optimal play would likely have been to spread their assets between on-hand, bank, and CDs. CDs to 100% safeguard, on-hand + bank to retain liquidity for vote rigging and buying services.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

if there are 3 wolves that's 3 passes is it not?

Oh, I see what you are getting at. I guess i didn't read it that way. I had read it as "Cutthroat" as in the entire team. The way that is worded does seem to indicate individual cutthroat player.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

SnDvls, that is making an assumption about the order of operations. But I'll bite.

What does that suggest about the remaining wolf/wolves? My initial reaction is that they were less likely to attract attention than Clap.

Also, if they were worried about the Thief then their optimal play would likely have been to spread their assets between on-hand, bank, and CDs. CDs to 100% safeguard, on-hand + bank to retain liquidity for vote rigging and buying services.

I think it suggests that the third original wolf is someone that wouldn't have been scanned by the service that Tyrith had giving full money amounts, and someone who didn't feel the thief would go after them as well. They felt confident enough to pass all of their assets to one person to safeguard it.

Either that or Clap actually did have CDs with most of the money and we really got lucky.

[Alan T]

Dola,
I am assuming they couldn't convert and -then- pass money to a convert either but I guess we'd have to have information from BK on what order things happen in to know that for sure.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

SnDvls, that is making an assumption about the order of operations. But I'll bite.

What does that suggest about the remaining wolf/wolves? My initial reaction is that they were less likely to attract attention than Clap.

Also, if they were worried about the Thief then their optimal play would likely have been to spread their assets between on-hand, bank, and CDs. CDs to 100% safeguard, on-hand + bank to retain liquidity for vote rigging and buying services.

I think you have to assume they got the wiretap bid . with today's bids being the last of their % on bids today they have at least recouped their bid money I believe, but I need to double check the numbers again.

now it'd be nice to find out that Clap had placed that bid and now loses that money, but it doesn't seem likely

[hoopsguy]

OK, I'm wondering if it makes sense for Chief Rum to begin offering up some thoughts on the people with high-end bank statements when we start Day 6. That could help us with making a decision on voting to end the game, or potentially help nail a wolf who was the money man for their operation.

Chances are fairly good that if there is a "money wolf" that they kept a big chunk of it on-hand, but maybe not as much on the night that MrW was advertising he was going to use the Thief.

[SnDvls]

ahhh good news if the wolves won the wire tap they have lost about $20K in the process

[SnDvls]

dola - they bid $66 K roughly

and have earned only $46,668

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I think you have to assume they got the wiretap bid . with today's bids being the last of their % on bids today they have at least recouped their bid money I believe, but I need to double check the numbers again.

now it'd be nice to find out that Clap had placed that bid and now loses that money, but it doesn't seem likely

I'll go ahead and clear that up at this point - I got the Wiretap bid. Ended up being a small net loser at the price I paid for it but I wanted to speculate on it. Plus it lowered my overall holdings, which would have been a short-term poison pill for the wolves if they came after me with a 100K bribe (which did not happen).

So for those trying to run the numbers on end game, this should clear up one of the big mysteries.

Also, two wolves down so far and we still haven't run into the "No Bankrupt" option. I think that is the other big ticket item, prior to today anyway, that had not been claimed.

[SnDvls]

ok out for the night

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'll go ahead and clear that up at this point - I got the Wiretap bid. Ended up being a small net loser at the price I paid for it but I wanted to speculate on it. Plus it lowered my overall holdings, which would have been a short-term poison pill for the wolves if they came after me with a 100K bribe (which did not happen).

So for those trying to run the numbers on end game, this should clear up one of the big mysteries.

Also, two wolves down so far and we still haven't run into the "No Bankrupt" option. I think that is the other big ticket item, prior to today anyway, that had not been claimed.

My guess is that as apparently there is a "money wolf" they likely made sure it was the one with the no bankrupt as well, to survive any suprise lynch vote that went their way.

I also wouldn't be suprised if they bid on the bodyguard today to protect against the assassin role tonight.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Alan T

My guess is that as apparently there is a "money wolf" they likely made sure it was the one with the no bankrupt as well, to survive any suprise lynch vote that went their way.

I also wouldn't be suprised if they bid on the bodyguard today to protect against the assassin role tonight.

they don't have the bodyguard

[SnDvls]

dola - and I'm using it on someone else tonight too FYI wolves

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

My guess is that as apparently there is a "money wolf" they likely made sure it was the one with the no bankrupt as well, to survive any suprise lynch vote that went their way.

I also wouldn't be suprised if they bid on the bodyguard today to protect against the assassin role tonight.

Hmm, I figured the wolves would go the other way - bid on the assassin to get 1-2 kills.

[SnDvls]

double dola - since I just about blew all my money on my bid and extra votes

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

they don't have the bodyguard

Well that is good to know. I bid for it, but it went for like 25k+ more than I had.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Hmm, I figured the wolves would go the other way - bid on the assassin to get 1-2 kills.

Well based on what Sndvls just said, that may very well be the case.

[Alan T]

Well, wife is waiting for me to come to bed. Night all

[hoopsguy]

For the remaining Rich with considerable assets, please make sure you are comfortable with your beneficiary. 10K to change it, if you have over 80K, is probably worth the cost.

I'm probably going to change mine, from someone that I have listed as medium trust to someone that is high trust.

[DaddyTorgo]

problem is it can be tough to tell who to trust in this game particularly b/c of conversions.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, so any thoughts on why a wolf would not have had money in bank or on hand? This confuses me ...

My guess? And I find this hard to believe, but here it is...

...I was the only one who thought to ask if money in unmatured CDs counted against end game. If the wolves didn't know this, they probably put a bunch of their money (except for one bidder perhaps) into CDs to try to get more cash.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

or he passed the majority of it prior to all the scans/events that happened

He would have had to pass it before the end of Day Four and well before he was in any danger. My read on his bank account was as of the end of Day Four.

[Chief Rum]

I want to re-iterate a point I made yesterday that I think was lost: if we vote End Game, we absolutely must do it at night. If we do it during the day, we risk having too much money not count from being in CDs. CDs mature at the daily deadline, so at night, we have that money on hand.

And with more villagers than wolves (and less incentive for us to have liquidity), we are far more likely to have significant proceeds locked into CDs, and so a daytime vote for End Game could be a critical error. So I urge that we only make that decision at Night (if we need to make it and can afford to wait).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, I'm wondering if it makes sense for Chief Rum to begin offering up some thoughts on the people with high-end bank statements when we start Day 6. That could help us with making a decision on voting to end the game, or potentially help nail a wolf who was the money man for their operation.

Chances are fairly good that if there is a "money wolf" that they kept a big chunk of it on-hand, but maybe not as much on the night that MrW was advertising he was going to use the Thief.

I am debating whether it would do much good for me to mention the high end names. There were only two players above $10,000 in the bank that night, and I would regard them both as well trusted.

[Chief Rum]

I will be gone most of the day as usual, but I will be back about a couple hours before deadline and will get in votes and commentary and what not then.

[Barkeep49]

Two murders! Oh dear. First there is the case of Tyrith. He was, like the others, brutally murdered. The police are beginning to suspect that the murders are related. But they're not sure yet. At the same time hoops was also found dead, but in a manner suggesting a professional. Both were just greedy rich men. The paper had no quote from either Tyrith's beneficiary, Alan T or hoops beneficiary, Chief Rum.

Today's services:
Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
Private Investigator: Will learn the side (Cutthroat or Rich) of 1 player. Must be used night 6.
Underworld connection: If won by the Cutthroats, they receive a bonus kill on Night 6. If won by the Rich no kill or conversion may happen that night.

[hoopsguy]

Good luck, guys.

[claphamsa]

GO TEAM GO!

[Alan T]

Ugh..

Ok, we have a wolf and most likely a converted wolf left. I feel pretty good about the following three people not being the last original wolf left:

13. SnDvls
14. Mr. Wednesday
16. DaddyTorgo

Out of the other four, I lean towards the following two not being an original wolf:

8. The Jackal
9. Chief Rum

That leaves two of the three I had mentioned yesterday between Render, Schmidty and Claphasma:
5. Render
11. Schmidty



I am not going to bother digging in to the top three names today, based on what happened with Passacaglia and now Claphasma, I think those three have to have been rich from the start, and I am not worried about the conversion target today.

The next two names.. Chief Rum provided information that helped me solidify my vote on Claphasma. Without his bank info on him, it would have been easier for Claphasma to talk his way out of it. I think between Mr.W and Chief Rum, those two helped tighten the noose for Clap to hang himself with his accounting story.

I know Sndvls yesterday said he was going to likely vote Jackal today, but I don't see that he can be the last original wolf either today. All of Pass and Claphasma's money had to go somewhere.. Tyrith told us that Jackal only had like 75kish or whatever it was.. He couldn't have been the one to receive their money either.

That leaves Render and Schmidty.. neither one has anything strong going for them, but also both have excuses to why they might not be the wolf.. I guess the point to figure out is which is more likely to be the wolf... Render who missed multiple votes and thus the money... or Schmidty who has been on a one track Hoops campaign the entire game.

Render voted immediately for Claphasma yesterday, but that could have been to get ahead of the rush so to speak with the idea that it was a forgone conclusion that Clap was toast... I get the feeling that Schmidty bought the assassin and killed Hoops last night with him.. a move that doesn't necessarily make him bad even though it frustrates me as I had already cleared Hoops..

Guess today I'll go back and try to find more on these two in the past, but I have a feeling we won't find much in the thread as Render missed multiple votes, and Schmidty's votes have been relatively irrelevant.

[Schmidty]

I did it. I killed hoops. I admit it.

I made a really bad mistake. I guess there's a reason I should just hang back in the shadows. I actually feel like quitting right now. I probably lost the game for us.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Alan T

......Schmidty's has been irrelevant.

fixed it for you.

[Alan T]

Day 1

Lathum – hoops (110)
Swaggs – Alan (149), Lathum (155), Pass (156), Render (157), Mr. W (168), The Jackal (192), saldana (198), path (215), Schmidty (229), Tyrith (231)
Sndvls – mauboy(151)
Mau – Sndvls (190)
Hoops – Chief Rum (201)
Jackal – claphams (205)

Day 2

Hoops – Chief (276)
Chief Rum – Alan (374), Mr. Wednesday (490)
Mauboy – Sndvls (388). Saldana (401), tyrith(411), clap (419), daddy t(473), saldana (515)
Sndvls – Pass (394), mauboy (396), mau (506)
Clap – path(406), The Jackal (417)
Saldana – Schmidty (414), hoopsguy (428), mau (487), mau (498)


Day 3

Hoopsguy – Schmidty (575), Tyrith (696), Hoops (704), Jackal (728)
Tyrith – Pass (698), Chief Rum (758), path (780)
Jackal – Sndvls (701), Hoops (706), Mr. W (709), clap (743)
Chief Rum – Daddy T(763)


Day 4

Render – Chief Rum (845)
Chief Rum – Render (848), Mr. W (1045), Clap (1066)
Hoopsguy – Schmidty (854)
Pass – Alan (872), Tyrith (998), Hoops (1053), Daddy T (1069)
Tyrith – Pass (1023)
The Jackal – SnDvls (1047)

Day 5

Clap - Chief Rum, RendeR, Alan, Tyrith, MrW, SnDvls, Sndvls, sndvls
SnDvls - Hoops, Clap
Hoops - Schmidty, DaddyTorgo

[Alan T]

Did Jackal not vote yesterday or did I just miss his vote? There was no end of the day vote recap.

[Schmidty]

This is my last WW game for a while. Maybe forever. I'm really, really bummed out about this.

If it wasn't considered bad form, I'd vote for myself today. If anyone does, I don't blame you, and I won't complain.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Did Jackal not vote yesterday or did I just miss his vote? There was no end of the day vote recap.

I apologize for not posting my end of day voting record, but I did not see a vote from Jackal yesterday other than his vote to end the game.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

This is my last WW game for a while. Maybe forever. I'm really, really bummed out about this.

If it wasn't considered bad form, I'd vote for myself today. If anyone does, I don't blame you, and I won't complain.

Dont get too discouraged we all mess up from time to time

[X]- BRAAAAAIIINNNS

[Alan T]

The only things I really pick up on the day 1 - 3 vote is that Passacaglia and Claphasma did a good job of spreading their votes around and not voting together. That tells me two additional things.. likely one of their fellow wolves was not up to be lynched, and the third wolf probably also spread his votes out as well.

The day 3 voting helps me feel even more likely that Jackal was not an original wolf. Clap put a vote on him at the end that directly endangered him of dying.

Day 1 the only others who spread their vote out from those two are Hoops/Mauboy (both dead), Chief/Sndvls (Both I don't think are bad based on other actions.) Day 1 being a forgone conclusion apparently with Swaggs gone, I don't think that day tells us much.

Day 2 and Day 3 neither Schmidty nor Render voted with either of them. (Render missed both votes and Schmidty just didn't vote).

Day 4 I think is likely which day will tell us the most.. Pass was on the line to be lynched, he had voted Tyrith earlier that day but was the only one on Tyrith. Claphasma voted Chief Rum to tie things up, Daddy Torgo voted Passacaglia to put him in the lead, which then led to the fun finish where Passacaglia voted multiple times to save himself apparently, but for whatever reason it didn't work.

I guess the question is.. was that voting by Passacaglia an act? I don't think so.. otherwise why wait till the last possible second? Why not do it with one minute to spare to try to get villagers to blow their cash? I think he honestly was trying to save himself, but it failed for some reason.. Why? I have no idea.. perhaps he tried to use money in CDs without realizing he couldn't.. or he miscounted how much money he had.. I don't know. Either way I am going to proceed that the expectations were that he was going to save himself, and the other wolves voted to help set that up.

Day 4, Render, Mr.W and Claphasma all voted for Chief Rum who ended up being Passacaglia's final target. I know Mr.W was good as I scanned him that night, but that leaves me questioning Render moreso here. Schmidty on the other hand threw his vote away at Hoops which once again didn't impact the vote one way or another.

So I guess my question is what do we have supporting Render not being a wolf? Only that he missed two votes (one of which days he was around just didn't vote). I'm beginning to believe that after seeing people's reaction to Arles missing two votes = he must be a villager, suddenly that became part of the wolf strategy to gain trust. Yes, he missed out on 30k, but considering for most of the game the villagers were getting something like 150k a day from voting and the wolves only got 45k a day from voting, I have to imagine that wasn't the source of their prime strategy here.

I think I'm leaning heavier to voting Render today than Schmidty.. I just don't see Schmidty behaving differently than normal..

[Alan T]

One correction on the daily votes up there. Day 3, Hoops did not vote for himself. that vote 704 was actually my vote for Hoops on that day. Wasn't my fault though.. I just copy and pasted that in from the daily vote totals.

[DaddyTorgo]

schmidty's one-man crusade against hoops would be good cover though. and he could totally pull it off.

i guess looking at schmidty vs. render on day 4 votes: schmidty threw his vote away on hoops, continuing a trend he started earlier, and render doubled-up on Chief Rum with a known wolf (the Clap), and Pass' attempt to save himself.

So then you have to ask yourself: is it more likely that a wolf would be the first vote AND the third vote on chief rum AND Pass (known wolf) would then try to dump onto Chief Rum to save himself -- with the wolves knowing that if this was successful there would be increased interest in the people who earlier voted for chief rum to make that possible

OR

is it more likely that Schmidty seized upon a strategy Day 1 of "I'm going to do the 'stubborn' routine and vote hoops all game and we won't bother to convert him and we'll hope he leads the villagers astray and gets lynched?"

random thoughts from me

[SnDvls]

Alan - what clears Daddy T or makes you trust him...I believe I've missed that.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

is it more likely that Schmidty seized upon a strategy Day 1 of "I'm going to do the 'stubborn' routine and vote hoops all game and we won't bother to convert him and we'll hope he leads the villagers astray and gets lynched?"

You give me too much credit.

[SnDvls]

Schmidty - Are you saying you bought the Hitman last night and used it on hoops per your post?

[SnDvls]

Daddy T - care to explain your vote for Hoops now?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Alan - what clears Daddy T or makes you trust him...I believe I've missed that.

Daddy Torgo effectively put the nail into Passacaglia on that vote. if he was a wolf, he could have voted elsewhere like Claphasma did and made things easier and more believable for Passacaglia to escape that day. By him putting that vote there, it forced Passacaglia to spend more money on votes to try to escape the lynch.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Daddy T - care to explain your vote for Hoops now?

i explained it afterwards. basically i wanted to tie up hoops and who was it...you...who had 2 votes.

i felt that the clap thing was as close to a lock as we were gonna get, and i figured that by tying up the 2 other people who had votes we were more likely to gain useful information in the event that the wolves tried something (at the very least it would remove one level of an excuse for the person who didn't get votes dumped on them, if that had happened).

as i said, i felt the clap thing was pretty much a lock at that point, barring shenanigans, and i thought my play would have helped us gain more insight if there had been shenanigans

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Schmidty - Are you saying you bought the Hitman last night and used it on hoops per your post?

Yes. Lying about it doesn't help anybody.

[RendeR]

I'm trying to understand all teh love Daddytorgo is receiving, why is he trusted by anyone at this point?

Schmidty's self loathing today screams of a covering act. He's always negative about his abilities in the game but this is way over the top as far as I'm concerned.

As for myself, why am I suspected? other than lack of activity I suppose...I missed two votes due to work, I've missed out on bids for the thief and the bodyguard as well as the government insider.

Since I never managed to win any bids I've just managed my money and stayed out of y'alls way. Hoops was leading a good game along with tyrith and MrW. So I dunno what else I can add. Take it for what its worth.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I'm trying to understand all teh love Daddytorgo is receiving, why is he trusted by anyone at this point?

Schmidty's self loathing today screams of a covering act. He's always negative about his abilities in the game but this is way over the top as far as I'm concerned.

As for myself, why am I suspected? other than lack of activity I suppose...I missed two votes due to work, I've missed out on bids for the thief and the bodyguard as well as the government insider.

Since I never managed to win any bids I've just managed my money and stayed out of y'alls way. Hoops was leading a good game along with tyrith and MrW. So I dunno what else I can add. Take it for what its worth.

why am i not receiving love? i haven't done anything un-love worthy.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Daddy Torgo effectively put the nail into Passacaglia on that vote. if he was a wolf, he could have voted elsewhere like Claphasma did and made things easier and more believable for Passacaglia to escape that day. By him putting that vote there, it forced Passacaglia to spend more money on votes to try to escape the lynch.

I'm not sure I buy this. It seems more feasible to me that they elceted to have one of their number stay on the hot button player each day while clap used his votes to muddy things up.

I'm still real unsure of DT, but not for any specific reason that I can nail down and put in text for you atm.

[RendeR]

Scmidty is lighting up my warning lights more DT, I'd vote for him before you at this point if thats any consolation =)