COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[CrimsonFox]

DeWine is kind of a badass lately!

[miami_fan]

Are we actually collaborating with the Chinese and the Italians to pick up some lessons learned or are we still a week or two behind their timeline?

[thesloppy]

Friend of mine just bought up the fact that Oregon has a massive state-run video-poker industry that is based entirely on bar patrons. Interesting from a couple angles what the effects of instantly stopping that will be....I have more than a couple friends that could probably greatly use a moratorium on that shit, but I can't imagine forced cold turkey will go over well with all of the states video-poker gamblers.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Are we actually collaborating with the Chinese and the Italians to pick up some lessons learned or are we still a week or two behind their timeline?

10 days ago Italy had 5883 cases.



Today, the US passed 6470.



Two days ago, Germany had 5813, today they passed 9274.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I don't think people grasp that "flattening the curve" also lengthens it (possibly because many of the graphs floating around on the internet don't extend the long tail), just how many people are living paycheck to paycheck or work in the service industry, and how disproportionately that population is younger & not at a high risk of mortality from this.

This is true, I'm just of the mindset that flattening/lengthening is losing little. Massive, extended shortages of ventilators, even hospital beds for the amount of sick people we are going to have is losing big, and that's the thing to mitigate. Not just for coronavirus patients either - for patients of other illnesses.

Although it will help, I don't think a short-term flattening is anywhere close to what it would take to boost medical infrastructure to the point of being able to handle a massive spike. That would take years to achieve and would require much of the population to do little else. And even so, we don't have enough trained nurses for what we already have in place, etc. There's just no way to 'ramp up' without major sacrificies in the quality of care, sacrifices that will be totally unacceptable to most. I think we're just aiming at 'least bad' here. Minimize the # of people who have to be told they need a ventilator or a hospital stay or this or that medication/supply but don't get one because their chances of survival are less than those already occupying that capacity.

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Are we actually collaborating with the Chinese and the Italians to pick up some lessons learned or are we still a week or two behind their timeline?

The latter, at least with regards to Italy, is what the numbers say. I think the actions that have been taken are having a mitigating/flattening effect, but really that just means it won't be quite as bad as it could have been. That's good … but we're still headed to the same general place.

[JPhillips]

My guess is they are hoping a combination of much greater testing, hotter, more humid weather, and anti-viral treatments gives a little bit of control by June. Our problem right now is we have no idea how far the virus has spread, and until we know that, the only option is mass isolation.

[henry296]

I understand our testing issues but the US has more than 5 times as many people as Italy. Total case count given how spread out the some of the cases are makes it not quite as similar as the raw numbers indicate. For example in Pittsburgh right now there are just 10 cases and 90% of the tests in PA are negative.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Are we actually collaborating with the Chinese and the Italians to pick up some lessons learned or are we still a week or two behind their timeline?

Sorry for large image.

Looks like we're right on par with Italy in terms of infections, but about half of the mortality rate (knock on wood). To listen to the mumbles it seems like that difference in mortality rate could possibly be due to relative age or smokers, or it could be better preparation/resources, but who can really say at this point?

[CraigSca]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Sorry for large image.

Looks like we're right on par with Italy in terms of infections, but about half of the mortality rate (knock on wood). To listen to the mumbles it seems like that difference in mortality rate could possibly be due to relative age or smokers, or it could be better preparation/resources, but who can really say at this point?

That data is missing the last two days, unfortunately. Based on the 6,482 as of tonight, we are well ahead of Italy in total cases.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

No way schools will reopen to classrooms in 2 weeks. It'll be all remote through May unless there is good news on vaccine.

Kansas has announced they are essentially accepting this reality; closed classrooms for the rest of the school year officially.

[JPhillips]

Sobering thread.

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.https://t.co/AwE2cHIbeJ

— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Kansas has announced they are essentially accepting this reality; closed classrooms for the rest of the school year officially.

Fulton County, GA just announced they are definitely closed through March 31 and strongly considering closing until April 13.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Looks like we're right on par with Italy in terms of infections, but about half of the mortality rate (knock on wood).

Interesting to note, we have five times the population of Italy, so the percentage of infections and rate of spread appears to be less in the U.S. (so far).

[Neon_Chaos]

Stay safe, folks.

[thesloppy]

You too, NC!

[Brian Swartz]

Taco Bell and McDonalds (corporate stores only, vast majority of course are franchised which is up to the individual owners there) have committed to continuing to pay their employees while they are shut down, at least for now. I have to question how long moves like this will last, but I applaud them for it even if part of the motivation I'm sure is to keep their employees around for when they are able to reopen.

[Icy]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Interesting to note, we have five times the population of Italy, so the percentage of infections and rate of spread appears to be less in the U.S. (so far).

We all lack data worldwide, that is the amount of people tested. If you only test 10 persons, you can't have 100 officialy infected.

I don't know about USA in particular but in some countries the test are free and mass available, in others you our your insurance need to pay for it, even if the gov pays for the test, in some countries test are only done to vulnerable people because lack of availability, etc so the infections numbers are probably very conservative in a lot of countries. Only people that feels sick ask for the test, but there is a lot of people that just feel a bit bad or are totally asynthomatic and won't ever be tested while infected.

[Edward64]

Re: testing kits, article says

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/healt...cdc/index.html

1) WHO did not offer and CDC did not ask for the WHO test kits on/prior Jan 17. I read this to be WHO expected CDC to create their own and CDC was probably too proud to accept the WHO kit which was not as accurate

2) On Feb 5, the CDC test kits were ready

3) "Days later" the CDC test kits were found to be defective and the kits had to be re-manufactured

4) No details on what went wrong. On Mar 1, an investigation was launched (still waiting I guess but thinking government/CDC know but is avoiding answering)

5) On Mar 9, public health labs able to test in all 50 states. But we know it had bandwidth challenges (until recently?)

Birx commented and said

"Because quality testing for our American people is paramount to us," Birx said before suggesting that other tests have been inaccurate. "It doesn't help to put out a test where 50% or 47% are false positives.
:
:
Regarding the test distributed by the World Health Organization, Birx said "I assume it is functional," according to the Times.

Bottom-line to me: yeah, there were some screw-ups and that is to be expected, but we are still behind the curve until the admiral became a testing czar late last week (?). They should release their findings on why the initial CDC test kits failed.

[MIJB#19]

Testing here (the Netherlands) only is used on those already very sick (at minimum a fever) and for hospital employees. That was a change of direction a week ago, two weeks after the first infection. Right now 1,705 positive test are reported (that's 1 in 10,000 of inhabitants), but rough estimations are that the actual number is 5 times larger.

As I mentioned earlier, assumptions are the virus spread faster and wider due to the timing at around a weekend where a large portion of the population traditionally goes to big gatherings.

Re: Italy vs USA
The first positive test in the USA was a full week before the first one in Italy, but that (too) can be a result of test availability and/or policy. I have no idea which state that was, haven't looked that up. At the same time it's apples and oranges, the USA is obviously a much larger area with a larger population and a lower density.

[miami_fan]

Obviously, most of us don't need this as we have internet service, maybe you can pass it on to someone who needs it.

Charter to Offer Free Access to Spectrum Broadband and Wi-Fi For 60-Days For New K-12 and College Student Households and More

[Ben E Lou]

Haven't looked around town, but the grocery store nearest our house that's typically never out of anything is completely out of Tylenol and other acetaminophen based products.

[bob]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Sobering thread.

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.https://t.co/AwE2cHIbeJ

— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020

Yep, kinda wish I hadn't read that to start this morning.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Haven't looked around town, but the grocery store nearest our house that's typically never out of anything is completely out of Tylenol and other acetaminophen based products.

When I get a cold/flu, I get like the cold and flu medicine, I don't pop ibuprofen or tylenol ... am I missing something?

[spleen1015]

I took a quick trip to the eastern shore of MD, got back yesterday.

A lot of folks out there not taking this things seriously. My entire family believes it is all bull shit. The only one taking it seriously is my 83 year old grandmother. She wants everyone to stay away.

This whole thing is still surreal to me.

[miked]

Most cold and flu medicine contains acetaminophen or ibuprofen as a fever reducer.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Haven't looked around town, but the grocery store nearest our house that's typically never out of anything is completely out of Tylenol and other acetaminophen based products.

I was able to get some on Amazon a couple days ago

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Sobering thread.

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.https://t.co/AwE2cHIbeJ
— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020

Stupid nitpick:

Can I be slightly annoyed when someone uses city size instead of MSA when calculating things? 4 million people is a lot of people but it's not the size of LA unless we're talking about just city size and that's not what people think about when they think of LA. Same with Houston and 2M - it's a 6.5M metro area. That's what people think of when they think of "Houston", not just the city limits.

SI

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I took a quick trip to the eastern shore of MD, got back yesterday.

A lot of folks out there not taking this things seriously. My entire family believes it is all bull shit. The only one taking it seriously is my 83 year old grandmother. She wants everyone to stay away.

This whole thing is still surreal to me.

funny how quickly someone takes it seriously when they are the most likely to die.

My mother in law is a die hard Trumper but she had a heart transplant 11 years ago and her kidneys are already in decline. She is taking it super seriously.

[Lathum]

Was texting with a friend today. She was telling me how she feels sorry for a lady who goes to our gym. The woman is there at least 4 hours a day. Turns out she has a horrible home life with a horribly abusive husband. Made me think about how much domestic violence must be happening right now and how its likely exacerbated by people being together more. Then throw in kids and money issues and it is a recipe for disaster.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Sobering thread.

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.https://t.co/AwE2cHIbeJ

— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020

Link to it outside twitter: Thread by @jeremycyoung: We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terri…

And yeah, sobering is putting it very lightly.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Was texting with a friend today. She was telling me how she feels sorry for a lady who goes to our gym. The woman is there at least 4 hours a day. Turns out she has a horrible home life with a horribly abusive husband. Made me think about how much domestic violence must be happening right now and how its likely exacerbated by people being together more. Then throw in kids and money issues and it is a recipe for disaster.

Yup. Probably increase in babies (9 months down the road), divorces, and abuse.

[cartman]

Just received confirmation on this from Dallas @JudgeClayJ chief of staff -- patients who have coronavirus and are in their 20s and 30s being treated now at Dallas hospitals are in critical condition and have no underlying conditions.

— Allison Harris (@AllisonFox4News) March 17, 2020

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by cartman

Just received confirmation on this from Dallas @JudgeClayJ chief of staff -- patients who have coronavirus and are in their 20s and 30s being treated now at Dallas hospitals are in critical condition and have no underlying conditions.

— Allison Harris (@AllisonFox4News) March 17, 2020

I am not as curious about age as I am underlying factors. I realize a later tweet says there aren't any but I have to wonder. We are extremely unhealthy as a society. We are obese, eat like shit, smoke , drink, etc...There are a lot of other factors that could contribute.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

One weird data point I don't understand - in many of the stories I've seen coming out of Asia they talk about having their temperature checked at every building they enter, or the subway, etc... I thought the biggest problem with this disease was that you can have & transmit it during a 14 day incubation period despite not showing any fever like symptoms? If so, why are so many Asian countries that have been through H1N1, MERS, etc using temperature checks as a tentpole of their quarantine efforts? Are you just more contagious during a period when you have it and a fever (like patient #31 in South Korea) so this is a way to weed out the worst potential spreaders?

Simple dumb guess: Because it's what we have?


SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am not as curious about age as I am underlying factors. I realize a later tweet says there aren't any but I have to wonder. We are extremely unhealthy as a society. We are obese, eat like shit, smoke , drink, etc...There are a lot of other factors that could contribute.

I'm concerned about quantity, % and mortality rate. Is the # of infected and mortality for Dallas' 20s & 30s significantly higher than what is expected?

[Ben E Lou]

Rumblings of daycare shutdowns here. If that happens, ish gets really real. It's one thing to work from home with elementary-aged kids who can fend for themselves to some degree. Whole different ballgame for productivity if America's toddlers are at home.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Rumblings of daycare shutdowns here. If that happens, ish gets really real. It's one thing to work from home with elementary-aged kids who can fend for themselves to some degree. Whole different ballgame for productivity if America's toddlers are at home.

People will set up de facto daycares at each others houses and that will completely defeat the purpose. That is basically what started happening here with schooling until the superintendent sent an email basically telling people to stop doing it.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Rumblings of daycare shutdowns here. If that happens, ish gets really real. It's one thing to work from home with elementary-aged kids who can fend for themselves to some degree. Whole different ballgame for productivity if America's toddlers are at home.

Ohio has pretty much told people to get their kids out of daycare because a shutdown order could be coming any day now.

[Arles]

I think this extreme social distancing is a good idea through the middle of April. But, we will need to have a serious discussion after that (IMO). We can't just shut down the country until July and lose 50-60% of our small businesses. We have to come up with an infrastructure that helps protect seniors and those with higher risk factors (delivery system for food/supplies) but allow the low risk people under 40 to get back to work/travel. At some point, we may be trading virus deaths for an equal number of suicide/spousal abuse/looting/other desperation crimes.

[SirFozzie]

Arlie, that's the thing. How do you come up with a system that takes care of seniors and people with higher risk factors in a mere 30 days.Because without a massive influx of money, and skilled people (which I don't think we can get in that mean time) to do that for folks. The problem is that for way too many people, "low risk under 40" folks getting corona virus isn't a big deal for themselves.. it's for all the other people they infect, including the older folks and folks with high risk factors (like me)

[Arles]

I know, that where we need the infrastructure. We need our government to work on ways to allow the higher risk people to stay distanced as the people who have had it (and recovered) and the low risk group can begin working/living again. This thing is going to keep traveling around through the summer. We can’t just shit down the country until August. There will be no country left at that point.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Arles

...We can’t just shit down the country until August. There will be no country left at that point.

I'm juvenile, but I still love seeing this exact typo anywhere it pops up.

[cartman]

it looks like the Peloton wife is going to get the last laugh

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

I'm juvenile, but I still love seeing this exact typo anywhere it pops up.

I have to leave it now. It is a perfect type for this sh*tshow we are living in

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think this extreme social distancing is a good idea through the middle of April. But, we will need to have a serious discussion after that (IMO). We can't just shut down the country until July and lose 50-60% of our small businesses. We have to come up with an infrastructure that helps protect seniors and those with higher risk factors (delivery system for food/supplies) but allow the low risk people under 40 to get back to work/travel. At some point, we may be trading virus deaths for an equal number of suicide/spousal abuse/looting/other desperation crimes.

Not to be crass but we don't really care about the bold at the best of times. With the increase in gun purchases, many will not want to expend any other resources to solve the underlined. They will take care of it themselves

I may be completely off base but I do think everyone wants to get to a more normal state. We all understand there is a process to getting there. It just seems like we can't get to a starting point of the process. We can't get anyone to do anything voluntarily which IMO just extends the mandated actions that much longer. As with everything, we don't know but would we be further along in the process, if everyone had engaged in minimal social distancing before being ordered to the extreme version?

I also think someone in leadership has to bite the bullet and actually talk about the trade of a potential rise of deaths for the return of a more normal way of life. It is a real thing and it is going to be very uncomfortable. Who has shown the ability to lead that discussion?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Arles

I know, that where we need the infrastructure. We need our government to work on ways to allow the higher risk people to stay distanced as the people who have had it (and recovered) and the low risk group can begin working/living again. This thing is going to keep traveling around through the summer. We can’t just shit down the country until August. There will be no country left at that point.

The problem is our inept government has screwed this up so bad that all the resources are going to slapping band aids on everything instead of figuring our how to stop the bleeding.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think this extreme social distancing is a good idea through the middle of April. But, we will need to have a serious discussion after that (IMO). We can't just shut down the country until July and lose 50-60% of our small businesses. We have to come up with an infrastructure that helps protect seniors and those with higher risk factors (delivery system for food/supplies) but allow the low risk people under 40 to get back to work/travel. At some point, we may be trading virus deaths for an equal number of suicide/spousal abuse/looting/other desperation crimes.

This is where I am at as well. I think some combination of a safe drug (I have heard chloroquine being floated) and warm weather help to tamper it down. I just don't know if we can nuke the whole economy to essentially protect our older population.

[IlliniCub]

Originally Posted by cartman

Just received confirmation on this from Dallas @JudgeClayJ chief of staff -- patients who have coronavirus and are in their 20s and 30s being treated now at Dallas hospitals are in critical condition and have no underlying conditions.

— Allison Harris (@AllisonFox4News) March 17, 2020

I'm guessing we're still only really testing serious cases amongst that age group, therefore probably thousands of their peers have it unknowingly but we're only hearing about these serious cases? Possibly? Also I've heard it was 1 20 year old and 1 30 year old but can't confirm.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I also think someone in leadership has to bite the bullet and actually talk about the trade of a potential rise of deaths for the return of a more normal way of life. It is a real thing and it is going to be very uncomfortable. Who has shown the ability to lead that discussion?

It would take a leader with a complete lack of compassion and empathy for us to go in that direction.


Oh, wait...

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by IlliniCub

I'm guessing we're still only really testing serious cases amongst that age group, therefore probably thousands of their peers have it unknowingly but we're only hearing about these serious cases? Possibly? Also I've heard it was 1 20 year old and 1 30 year old but can't confirm.

Dutch prime minister just said there's a global shortage of testing equipment due to lack of production availability. As a result, governments have together decided on the various lockdown strategies, depending on how much IC capacity is already used up, as well as on a testing strategy (which appears to be only testing those in critical conditions and hospital employees).