WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!) - Page 31

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

we need a continegcy plan for if one of these poeple gets lynched or might killed....

We have one, NTN fills their spot.

Dr. Sak · 02-21-2008, 03:24 PM

How many wolves are there potentially left?

claphamsa · 02-21-2008, 03:25 PM

o mssed that!

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bsak16

How many wolves are there potentially left?

I'd say at most 4. My money would be on 3 left, personally.

RendeR · 02-21-2008, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I'd say at most 4. My money would be on 3 left, personally.

yeah I'd be assuming 4 total for the game. So 3 more mutts to fry!!

Barkeep49 · 02-21-2008, 03:50 PM

I think the idea with this plan isn't to have an accurate scan on everyone, it's to have a scan. Accuracy will then be determined later through repetition or by learning who CC/TP is.

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I think the idea with this plan isn't to have an accurate scan on everyone, it's to have a scan. Accuracy will then be determined later through repetition or by learning who CC/TP is.

Then I say if we do that we lynch someone with lots of data points on them today. If we sit there tomorrow with half-assed info on lots of people, and lots of people have their 4 scans with no evidence of wrong or right we'll be pretty clueless.

The Jackal · 02-21-2008, 03:56 PM

Mr W it is

RendeR · 02-21-2008, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Then I say if we do that we lynch someone with lots of data points on them today. If we sit there tomorrow with half-assed info on lots of people, and lots of people have their 4 scans with no evidence of wrong or right we'll be pretty clueless.

Ok, you're the "trust" gyu today, Who would you recommend? Do we have a current vote count?

Mr. Wednesday · 02-21-2008, 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Cronin why are you placing so much stock in this night 3 scan? I've really tried to give you the benefit of the doubt as you've been so suspicious to me, but I was afraid I was falling into the trap of "he's suspicious of me so he must be a wolf" but basically everything you do screams to me wolf.

I can't speak to your experience in other games, but for me it's such a common occurrence that cronin's behavior screams wolf to me that I just tune it out.

Mr. Wednesday · 02-21-2008, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

As the situation gets more desparate, tempers flare. Jeheinz72 and st.cronin argue about his scans of wolf. Finally, Jeheinz says "We're going to find out what's going on RIGHT NOW!", pulls a gun from his pocket and shoots st.cronin.

You all watch in horror as st.cronin's look of surprise fades with his life.......and transforms into the head of a wolf!

JEHEINZ72 HAS KILLED ST.CRONIN, A WOLF!

Uh, wow. Nice work!

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR

Ok, you're the "trust" gyu today, Who would you recommend? Do we have a current vote count?

My vote is on DC, I think she has two. Clap has one, Mau has one. I think that's it

Mr. Wednesday · 02-21-2008, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, her gameplay screams wolf to me, but 6 good scans out of 7 makes it hard. I mean that's a lot of dodged scans if she's a wolf. Granted, the one who did hit on her as a wolf was Lathum, who I can assume wasn't lying about it at all, since we know he was good.

A large number of scans in either direction are surprising. Don't fall into the trap of overweighting volume of scan results. To the extent that we use scans, it needs to be results from individuals who seem to have greater accuracy.

Barkeep49 · 02-21-2008, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I can't speak to your experience in other games, but for me it's such a common occurrence that cronin's behavior screams wolf to me that I just tune it out.

This post was so cute considering what was to come for Mr. W

Mr. Wednesday · 02-21-2008, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

how have some poeple only been scanned once?

Because there's been a movement to bunch scans (maximizing return when the scanned person gets offed, but reducing coverage). Some people have not gone along with that plan (outside of one night, myself included).

Mr. Wednesday · 02-21-2008, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

This post was so cute considering what was to come for Mr. W

Yeah, when I then made it to the subsequent post I was like, "Boy, that post I made before is going to look silly."

It's true, though, cronin has come off very wolvish to me in a lot of games where he's been villager.

SnDvls · 02-21-2008, 04:24 PM

VOTE Mauboy

this is purely based on the anaylsis of Clap's scans (by jeheinz) as I don't have a lot more to go on....if I do see a run you can bet I'll be looking closely at those that pile on this vote.

claphamsa · 02-21-2008, 04:25 PM

I havent scanned mau..... just think hes being silly

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

A large number of scans in either direction are surprising. Don't fall into the trap of overweighting volume of scan results. To the extent that we use scans, it needs to be results from individuals who seem to have greater accuracy.

Yeah, I should add that I was wrong, it was actually 5 good out of 7, not 6. Here's the info

- I scanned her as good, I'm 1 for 1, but I'd bet I'm not the Teachers Pet (since I got the gun) (no scan n1)
- Lathum scanned her as wolf in his only scan
- Mau scanned her as wolf and is 1 for 1 in his other scan (no scan n1)
- You scanned her as Good and are 0 for 1 in your confirmed scans, with 1 other
- Olie scanned her as Good, with no info on any of Olie's scans
- RendeR scanned her as Good and is 0 for 1 in his confirmed scans, with 1 other
- Saldana scanned her as good, one of 2 unconfirmed scans for him before his untimely death

Really looking at it that way, I really like my vote for DodgerChick.

SnDvls · 02-21-2008, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I havent scanned mau..... just think hes being silly

but you do have a hunch right?

claphamsa · 02-21-2008, 04:28 PM

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls

VOTE Mauboy

this is purely based on the anaylsis of Clap's scans (by jeheinz) as I don't have a lot more to go on....if I do see a run you can bet I'll be looking closely at those that pile on this vote.

Clap is 3 for 3 on his scans, but none of his scans were Mau. He's scanned Lathum and Cronin both correctly and he came up good on me, which is correct and I'm sure most would agree with that

Mauboy has been scanned 3 times. Twice by NTN with differing results (one each good and bad) and Olie (1 good). NTN is 0 for 1 in his confirmed scans, Olie is 0 for 0.

SnDvls · 02-21-2008, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

ya

your hunchs seem to be better than mine

all I got is a wolf scan on Pumpy and I'd like to see what other's come up with scanning him before it seems I'm leading a charge against him

st.cronin · 02-21-2008, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

That was one of the coolest things I have ever seen in a werewolf game

Oh come on, we've seen it before. It was cooler the first time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I can't speak to your experience in other games, but for me it's such a common occurrence that cronin's behavior screams wolf to me that I just tune it out.

Awesome!

Barkeep49 · 02-21-2008, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

That was one of the coolest things I have ever seen in a werewolf game

Oh come on, we've seen it before. It was cooler the first time.

And the funny thing was that the coolest time it happened (in hoops' game), Lathum was responsible for it!

Lathum · 02-21-2008, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

And the funny thing was that the coolest time it happened (in hoops' game), Lathum was responsible for it!

hehe

mauchow · 02-21-2008, 05:14 PM

I'm going to have to keep a close eye on these results here. Looks like I'm the lead vote getter right now. That's too bad.

oliegirl · 02-21-2008, 05:18 PM

I'm torn between Mau and DC. I've scanned each of them as student, but I'm not sure if my scans can be trusted b/c no one I've scanned has been killed yet. Need to think a little more on this one.

Do we have a current vote count?

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 05:20 PM

>Mauboy: 2 (claphamsa, SnDvls)>
>DodgerChick: 2 (The Jackal, jeheinz72)>
>Chief Rum: 1 (Mauboy1)>
>>Claphamsa: 1 (DodgerChick)>>
>>>>
>>Not Voting: Like, most everyone. >>
>>

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 05:21 PM

Good god I don't know what happened there

Mauboy: 2 (claphamsa, SnDvls)
DodgerChick: 2 (The Jackal, jeheinz72)
Chief Rum: 1 (Mauboy1)
Claphamsa: 1 (Dodgerchick)

Not voting: like, most everyone

Mr. Wednesday · 02-21-2008, 05:29 PM

Well, I need to vote for someone, because Real Soon Now I'll be leaving and then be out past deadline. I don't have any good ideas, so I'll just enhance the tie.

VOTE Chief Rum

Barkeep49 · 02-21-2008, 05:33 PM

I too need to vote soon. I'm going to join with Mr. W and vote for someone who, next to cronin, has done the most to raise my eyebrows with his play this game.

Chief Rum

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 05:33 PM

About a half hour until I split for the day. I can see myself switching to CR possibly. I'm against a mauboy lynch.

I don't think he's played all that wolfish and we don't get much out of a bad lynch of him, like we would if we erred in a lynch of CR or DC.

He missed day one like me, so I can hardly judge him for that, and then that prediction stuff. I mean is that all that incriminating? I guess I just understood what he meant from the get-go. That whole including n0-scans idea of his is, in my mind, the biggest strike against him. Someone would/should only want to do that to artificially make themselves look good, IMO.

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 05:35 PM

Chief Rum: 3 (Mauboy1, Mr. Wednesday, Barkeep49)
Mauboy: 2 (claphamsa, SnDvls)
DodgerChick: 2 (The Jackal, jeheinz72)
Claphamsa: 1 (Dodgerchick)

Not Voting (7): bsak, Chief Rum, MikeVic, ntnDeacon, Oliegirl, Pumpy Tudors, RendeR

Barkeep49 · 02-21-2008, 05:37 PM

JH: It's not just the N0 bit. It's also his ducking from a close vote on D2.

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

JH: It's not just the N0 bit. It's also his ducking from a close vote on D2.

You mea CR ducking? Yeah, I get that.

My notes there were on Mauboy, I don't advocate voting him.

I can see a vote for CR, he and DC are a solid two candidates IMO. I personally favor DC more though.

mauchow · 02-21-2008, 05:39 PM

I just firmly believe that the n0 scans will mean something down the road as far as our percentages go. If you have a 50% scan rate, and if your scan was wrong on n0, it was probably right on n1. It's jsut a matter of miraculously figuring out who's scans were right and wrong, which there is no way of figuring out since everyone will say they're good.

I know I'm good so I know my scan was essentially right. I KNOW what I've got here to work with and for everyone else from MY perspective, n0 will not count because like you've already mentioned...it's just not feasible to put faith into it.

mauchow · 02-21-2008, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

JH: It's not just the N0 bit. It's also his ducking from a close vote on D2.

Yeah, to clear this up, who was ducking a close vote?

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I just firmly believe that the n0 scans will mean something down the road as far as our percentages go. If you have a 50% scan rate, and if your scan was wrong on n0, it was probably right on n1. It's jsut a matter of miraculously figuring out who's scans were right and wrong, which there is no way of figuring out since everyone will say they're good.

I know I'm good so I know my scan was essentially right. I KNOW what I've got here to work with and for everyone else from MY perspective, n0 will not count because like you've already mentioned...it's just not feasible to put faith into it.

Wait, you're good so your scan is correct? That's really really faulty logic.

Barkeep49 · 02-21-2008, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Yeah, to clear this up, who was ducking a close vote?

Sorry I got confused in JH's writeup. I thought he was defending CR, but really he was defending mau.

mauchow · 02-21-2008, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Wait, you're good so your scan is correct? That's really really faulty logic.

What? My n0 scan was nfg, who died a villager. My scan, TECHNICALLY was right. I'm going based off that and only that. I don't get what is so hard to comprehend here. I really don't. I'm going off the assumption that there is SOME truth to these n0 scans. OBVIOUSLY there are wrong scans out there.. TECHNICALLY mine was right.

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

What? My n0 scan was nfg, who died a villager. My scan, TECHNICALLY was right. I'm going based off that and only that. I don't get what is so hard to comprehend here. I really don't. I'm going off the assumption that there is SOME truth to these n0 scans. OBVIOUSLY there are wrong scans out there.. TECHNICALLY mine was right.

Technically yours was right, correct. What I'm saying is this, its a true statement, but it doesn't up the ante for me as far as what I'd gauge your accuracy at, since there was obviously something different about those scans. Everyone came up good. So they either weren't determined by the standard random procedure (using our accuracy %'s) or we hit a lottery-like fluke.

Now I don't play the lotto, so I'm taking it to mean they had nothing to do with our accuracy %'s

mauchow · 02-21-2008, 05:50 PM

OH, yeah. I see what you're saying. I am pretty sure that it was done on purpose that everyone came up a villager. It would be fair since technically we could hit all the wolves on night 0....

but I believe that path would set the game up to have some truthfulness in the n0 scans otherwise there is absolutely NO POINT in having them in the game. Might as well have started out with no scans. Dumb.

MikeVic · 02-21-2008, 05:51 PM

The thing about CR though, is like I've said earlier today (I think): he was seen as a wolf by cronin AND voted on early by cronin. I'm confused by those two things.

MikeVic · 02-21-2008, 05:52 PM

I really don't have much on mauboy, clap was scanned as a wolf by me but I don't know how accurate I am. DC brought my radar up as well, but I just don't know.

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

OH, yeah. I see what you're saying. I am pretty sure that it was done on purpose that everyone came up a villager. It would be fair since technically we could hit all the wolves on night 0....

but I believe that path would set the game up to have some truthfulness in the n0 scans otherwise there is absolutely NO POINT in having them in the game. Might as well have started out with no scans. Dumb.

He could have done it just to cause this confusion, plus also, wolves could've fake noted some people as wolves. Just a hurdle to put in there.

MikeVic · 02-21-2008, 05:53 PM

In other words, I'm not comfortable lynching any of the four candidates currently... and I don't have much else to go by for other people.

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeVic

The thing about CR though, is like I've said earlier today (I think): he was seen as a wolf by cronin AND voted on early by cronin. I'm confused by those two things.

Not out of the realm. I know when i've been a wolf in the past, if a fellow wolf isn't in danger, throwing a vote on him can look good down the line.

RendeR · 02-21-2008, 05:55 PM

I'm gonna get my vote in now. Heiney is the hero of the day, if he says lets lynch DC then I'm gonna sheep it and vote DC:

Vote Dodgerchick

jeheinz72 · 02-21-2008, 05:58 PM

Well I'm outta here, peace out folks. Hopefully I'm alive to see another day tomorrow!

02-21-2008, 03:25 PM	#1503
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	o mssed that! __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

02-21-2008, 04:25 PM	#1518
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	I havent scanned mau..... just think hes being silly __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

02-21-2008, 04:28 PM	#1521
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	ya __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

02-21-2008, 05:29 PM	#1531
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	Well, I need to vote for someone, because Real Soon Now I'll be leaving and then be out past deadline. I don't have any good ideas, so I'll just enhance the tie. VOTE Chief Rum __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

02-21-2008, 05:55 PM	#1549
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	I'm gonna get my vote in now. Heiney is the hero of the day, if he says lets lynch DC then I'm gonna sheep it and vote DC: Vote Dodgerchick __________________ http://wotlabs.net/s...8/signature.png http://wotlabs.net/sig_dark/na/banichi18/signature.png

02-21-2008, 03:24 PM	#1502
Dr. Sak Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Stuck in Yinzerville, PA	How many wolves are there potentially left?

02-21-2008, 03:50 PM	#1506
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	I think the idea with this plan isn't to have an accurate scan on everyone, it's to have a scan. Accuracy will then be determined later through repetition or by learning who CC/TP is.

02-21-2008, 03:56 PM	#1508
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Mr W it is

02-21-2008, 04:24 PM	#1517
SnDvls Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2001	VOTE Mauboy this is purely based on the anaylsis of Clap's scans (by jeheinz) as I don't have a lot more to go on....if I do see a run you can bet I'll be looking closely at those that pile on this vote.

02-21-2008, 05:14 PM	#1527
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	I'm going to have to keep a close eye on these results here. Looks like I'm the lead vote getter right now. That's too bad.

02-21-2008, 05:20 PM	#1529
jeheinz72 Pro Rookie Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Fresno, CA	>Mauboy: 2 (claphamsa, SnDvls)> >DodgerChick: 2 (The Jackal, jeheinz72)> >Chief Rum: 1 (Mauboy1)> >>Claphamsa: 1 (DodgerChick)>> >>>> >>Not Voting: Like, most everyone. >> >>

02-21-2008, 05:21 PM	#1530
jeheinz72 Pro Rookie Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Fresno, CA	Good god I don't know what happened there Mauboy: 2 (claphamsa, SnDvls) DodgerChick: 2 (The Jackal, jeheinz72) Chief Rum: 1 (Mauboy1) Claphamsa: 1 (Dodgerchick) Not voting: like, most everyone

02-21-2008, 05:33 PM	#1532
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	I too need to vote soon. I'm going to join with Mr. W and vote for someone who, next to cronin, has done the most to raise my eyebrows with his play this game. Chief Rum

02-21-2008, 05:33 PM	#1533
jeheinz72 Pro Rookie Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Fresno, CA	About a half hour until I split for the day. I can see myself switching to CR possibly. I'm against a mauboy lynch. I don't think he's played all that wolfish and we don't get much out of a bad lynch of him, like we would if we erred in a lynch of CR or DC. He missed day one like me, so I can hardly judge him for that, and then that prediction stuff. I mean is that all that incriminating? I guess I just understood what he meant from the get-go. That whole including n0-scans idea of his is, in my mind, the biggest strike against him. Someone would/should only want to do that to artificially make themselves look good, IMO.

02-21-2008, 05:35 PM	#1534
jeheinz72 Pro Rookie Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Fresno, CA	Chief Rum: 3 (Mauboy1, Mr. Wednesday, Barkeep49) Mauboy: 2 (claphamsa, SnDvls) DodgerChick: 2 (The Jackal, jeheinz72) Claphamsa: 1 (Dodgerchick) Not Voting (7): bsak, Chief Rum, MikeVic, ntnDeacon, Oliegirl, Pumpy Tudors, RendeR

02-21-2008, 05:37 PM	#1535
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	JH: It's not just the N0 bit. It's also his ducking from a close vote on D2.

02-21-2008, 05:39 PM	#1537
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	I just firmly believe that the n0 scans will mean something down the road as far as our percentages go. If you have a 50% scan rate, and if your scan was wrong on n0, it was probably right on n1. It's jsut a matter of miraculously figuring out who's scans were right and wrong, which there is no way of figuring out since everyone will say they're good. I know I'm good so I know my scan was essentially right. I KNOW what I've got here to work with and for everyone else from MY perspective, n0 will not count because like you've already mentioned...it's just not feasible to put faith into it.

02-21-2008, 05:50 PM	#1543
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	OH, yeah. I see what you're saying. I am pretty sure that it was done on purpose that everyone came up a villager. It would be fair since technically we could hit all the wolves on night 0.... but I believe that path would set the game up to have some truthfulness in the n0 scans otherwise there is absolutely NO POINT in having them in the game. Might as well have started out with no scans. Dumb.

02-21-2008, 05:51 PM	#1544
MikeVic Head Coach Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Hometown of Canada	The thing about CR though, is like I've said earlier today (I think): he was seen as a wolf by cronin AND voted on early by cronin. I'm confused by those two things.

02-21-2008, 05:52 PM	#1545
MikeVic Head Coach Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Hometown of Canada	I really don't have much on mauboy, clap was scanned as a wolf by me but I don't know how accurate I am. DC brought my radar up as well, but I just don't know.

02-21-2008, 05:53 PM	#1547
MikeVic Head Coach Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Hometown of Canada	In other words, I'm not comfortable lynching any of the four candidates currently... and I don't have much else to go by for other people.

02-21-2008, 05:58 PM	#1550
jeheinz72 Pro Rookie Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Fresno, CA	Well I'm outta here, peace out folks. Hopefully I'm alive to see another day tomorrow!

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