Invasion of Ukraine

[GrantDawg]

No. And even with the ease of which they were able to take a couple of territories, I don't believe Wagner will win here. I think the best case scenario would be what has been long hoped for, a group close to Putin gets fed up and takes him out. They pull out of Ukraine, and things stabilize. That might be a pipe dream, but that would be the best outcome.

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[Edward64]

No, we don't want Wagner with nukes.

My guess, the least bad options is Putin retaining power after a difficult battle with Prigozhin/Wagner. He then has to spend some time purging who he needs to purge, and reestablishing firm control on any suspect politicians/troops.

[GrantDawg]

Ukrainian soldiers at the front follow the coup attempt in Russia by eating popcorn.#Wagner #Russia #Moscow #Prigozhin #Titanic #Putin #Titan #WagnerGroup pic.twitter.com/fMeY38w5zD

— Isha Rastogi (@IshaRas40433124) June 24, 2023

[CrimsonFox]

[GrantDawg]

Prigozhin is basically live streaming from Rostov. He says they have found evidence of the misinformation given out by the MOD of the extent of their losses. He said they have been losing soldier at alarming rate, up to 1,000 a day. Much of that has been reported in the West, but this might be the first the Russian people have been exposed to it.

[JPhillips]

Hard to tell what's going on right now, but there are reports that Kadyrov is taking Chechans to Rostov to fight Wagner.

[GrantDawg]

So far just from the way it looks, the government is trying to stall Wargner without giving any major fight. It looks like they are trying to prevent large scale fighting in civilian areas. I don't think that will last for long, but they must be hoping they can get this quelled as bloodlessly as possible. I do buy that they probably are preparing to move Kadyrov's forces in to take this rebellion out if needed. Kadyrov works with the same kind of ruthlessness that Wagner has.

[JPhillips]

If Putin falls there are a whole lot of American political influencers that are going to miss their paychecks.

[Edward64]

If some Redditors are right, headed towards Moscow now.

Supposedly 2-4 hours away.

[GrantDawg]

They have dug trenches on the highways into Moscow, and have disconnected bridges heading into the city.

[JPhillips]

Cyclist passes Russian troops in Rostov while blasting "Because I got high".

That's it, that's the tweet. pic.twitter.com/CsD4j0HtRx

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) June 24, 2023

[GrantDawg]

I have over 400 hours of experience playing Civilization V. Vladimir Putin should have known that when his national happiness fell below -20 he would start spawning random insurgents. Here’s what he should do next: ��(1/?)

— Ari Drennen (@AriDrennen) June 24, 2023

[bronconick]

Only 400 hours? Amateur. That's like 2 or 3 games.

[GrantDawg]

Reports of gun fire in Rostov.

[Solecismic]

It seems like Prigozhin is playing his hand, and it's not the hand he thought he held. So, knowing that he will be executed for treason if he fails, he's going to keeping playing it.

The next couple of weeks will determine a lot, but it's hard to see this changing the overall situation all that much. Russia is trying to activate as much military as possible and their dependence on Wagner is reduced.

It's interesting that much of Wagner remains in Ukraine right now. And Prigozhin has indicated he still supports the war - this suggests that he thought Putin would react very differently to his actions this week.

This isn't bad news for Ukraine by any means. But signs seem clear that Putin's political control remains strong and this isn't headed toward a coup attempt.

The best thing NATO can do is to keep supplying Ukraine and hope they can resist, long-term. The harder this is for Russia, the less likely this spreads to NATO countries.

[GrantDawg]

Prigozhin is announcing they are turning back from Moscow. Some kind of agreement has been reached, though no details on what.

[GrantDawg]

It may be at best a cease fire, and intends to hold Rostov till greater concession are met. Or maybe he just realized an attack on Moscow was a suicide run.

[Thomkal]

So MAGA has turned to Biden and the West organized what's happening in Russia right now because we got too close to uncovering the Biden Crime Family.

[SirFozzie]

I'm shocked that both sides have apparently blinked. one of the things that have been rumored is that Prigohzin is apparently demanding major changes in Russian Army leadership.

If putting Prigozhin basically in charge of the army is the end result of this.. well, does anyone see any way this ends well?

[Edward64]

It was fun while it lasted

[JPhillips]

There just weren't that many soldiers in Rostov. Seems very unlikely he could have taken Moscow if it required fighting and the army seemed to stay neutral. If I were him I'd be looking at countries with nice weather and no relations with Russia.

Unless this was all a setup to get rid of the military leadership, but that seems very unlikely, IMO.

[GrantDawg]

We will see over time, but he had to have gotten some concessions. I don't see how he could possibly trust anything they agreed to. He is a marked man.

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[GrantDawg]

Unconfirmed reports head of the Defense Mins try has been arrested.

[Edward64]

And Ukraine is continuing their offensive in multiple fronts.

Somehow, I just don't think Prigohzin and/or Putin are long for this world. Someone is going to break the "truce" within the year.

[Solecismic]

Hand played and folded. We'll have to wait and see whether Prigozhin is valuable enough to remain in control of anything, but it seems that soldiers who followed him will have the opportunity to join the Russian army. Prigozhin himself is being sent to Belarus. Perhaps he'll have an opportunity to cook for Lukashenko.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

We will see over time, but he had to have gotten some concessions. I don't see how he could possibly trust anything they agreed to. He is a marked man.

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They apparently killed 10-20 Russian soldiers and will face no legal consequences. So I'd say that's a concession all in itself.


It's impossible to know what is going on behind the scenes but this has to make Putin look incredibly weak.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Hand played and folded. We'll have to wait and see whether Prigozhin is valuable enough to remain in control of anything, but it seems that soldiers who followed him will have the opportunity to join the Russian army. Prigozhin himself is being sent to Belarus. Perhaps he'll have an opportunity to cook for Lukashenko.

It must of been that he really believed the army would rally behind him. When they didn't, he knew he couldn't go forward.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

They apparently killed 10-20 Russian soldiers and will face no legal consequences. So I'd say that's a concession all in itself.


It's impossible to know what is going on behind the scenes but this has to make Putin look incredibly weak.

I have actually seen this argued both ways. He looked weak that this happened, or it reveals his strength that it failed.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I have actually seen this argued both ways. He looked weak that this happened, or it reveals his strength that it failed.

Tough to say. The fact he took over a city and stormed toward Moscow is impressive in itself. Putin was clearly panicking. And them publicly stating the charges have been dropped shows a lot of weakness from Putin.

Kasparov is a bit of a crank but he's an interesting follow on Twitter. He always points out that you can't view Russia like you would America or other countries. It's more like the mafia, public power is not the desired outcome. If Prigozhin got enough money, he'll be happy.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Edward64

And Ukraine is continuing their offensive in multiple fronts.

Somehow, I just don't think Prigohzin and/or Putin are long for this world. Someone is going to break the "truce" within the year.

One of them (as I understand it) spends a good bit of time much closer to the front that the other.

Gosh, it'd be a tragedy is a stray round just happened to find its way into that one. I'm sure the other would be just devastated if such a thing happened.

[bhlloy]

The one reason they might not bump him off within weeks is because Russia is absolutely dependent on 25k mercenaries plus more deployed around the world, most of whom are absolutely loyal and probably won’t take kindly if he has a nasty accident.

But yeah, long term once they are either stably part of the regular military or out of the picture, I imagine he’s odds on to have a nasty accident falling out of a window or an unfortunate brush with something highly deadly. That does seem to happen surprisingly often to prominent foes of Putin.

[Edward64]

Supposedly a pic of him on the way to exile.

And according to reddit, Putin hasn't been seen since his address to nation. You'd think there would a post victory televised appearance. But wouldn't mind some internal power struggles right now.

[Edward64]

A blurb from Politico that I found interesting.

Not sure what the "gains" are they hope to achieve (e.g. Crimea) but I'm glad Ukraine is acknowledging there is "reality" and then there is "really reality".

Unless Ukraine can really dislodge Russia from the new territories & Crimea, better to accept 3/4 (or 4/5) or the original Ukraine, EU/NATO security guarantees including boots on the ground, start the nation rebuilding, and look towards the future.

Playbook: Inside Biden’s Plan B on student debt - POLITICO

BURNS AFTER READING: CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS secretly traveled to Ukraine last month to hear Kyiv’s plans for ending the war, which entail making significant territorial gains by the fall and then starting cease-fire talks with Russia by the end of the year, WaPo’s John Hudson and Shane Harris scooped. Burns’ goal was also to reiterate the U.S. commitment to sharing intelligence with Ukraine.

[Solecismic]

This cluster bomb issue has me concerned. The entire war/invasion is being played by rules that feel rather uncomfortable.

Russia has nukes, but there seems to be an acknowledgment on both sides that any use of nuclear weapons is off-limits. So where is the line, then? At first, Russia was using fairly advanced bombs that seem on a par with cluster bombs. But then stopped using them. No one talks about this.

It's apparently OK for Russia to bomb civilian areas in Ukraine, especially cities that are not under siege, because destroying infrastructure is cool, I guess. But Ukraine cannot do the same. It seems to be a condition of providing weaponry.

The rules seem designed to evoke a stand-off of sorts. Russia can't take Kyiv without their advanced weaponry. Ukraine can't break the Russia lines and reclaim territory without receiving more advanced weaponry.

I've felt from the beginning that China is running this show. Setting the parameters, guiding Putin like a puppet in that they understand his crazy dreams about re-establishing the Russian Empire, and Xi uses that to keep him confident all this is a good idea. It's a dangerous game, because if this goes nuclear NATO probably can't stay out. Xi understands that a full-fledged world war hurts everyone.

What's the end-game, then? Xi is the only one who benefits every day the standoff continues. But if Ukraine surrenders, the standoff simply moves to the Baltics.

[Flasch186]

Xi is winning


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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

This cluster bomb issue has me concerned. The entire war/invasion is being played by rules that feel rather uncomfortable.

The "rules" are changed/adapted to as the war progresses. I don't disagree with the west's strategy of "trickling" out armaments to Ukraine. The west is doing a tit-for-tat and/or also as needed escalation.

Russia has nukes, but there seems to be an acknowledgment on both sides that any use of nuclear weapons is off-limits. So where is the line, then? At first, Russia was using fairly advanced bombs that seem on a par with cluster bombs. But then stopped using them. No one talks about this.

The ultimate line for the US (I hope) is boots-on-the-ground in Ukraine, contested areas; and US weapons attacking inside Russia proper.

It's apparently OK for Russia to bomb civilian areas in Ukraine, especially cities that are not under siege, because destroying infrastructure is cool, I guess. But Ukraine cannot do the same. It seems to be a condition of providing weaponry.

The rules seem designed to evoke a stand-off of sorts. Russia can't take Kyiv without their advanced weaponry. Ukraine can't break the Russia lines and reclaim territory without receiving more advanced weaponry.

I'm pretty sure the US is okay with Ukraine "breaking" Russia lines that are in Ukraine and contested areas (Crimea may be a special situation). The restriction is inside Russia proper.

I've felt from the beginning that China is running this show. Setting the parameters, guiding Putin like a puppet in that they understand his crazy dreams about re-establishing the Russian Empire, and Xi uses that to keep him confident all this is a good idea. It's a dangerous game, because if this goes nuclear NATO probably can't stay out. Xi understands that a full-fledged world war hurts everyone.

I honestly don't believe that China is running the show. Has some hooks, has some influence, providing some plausible deniability weapons ... sure. But not running (aka forcing Putin) what to do like a puppet master.

What's the end-game, then? Xi is the only one who benefits every day the standoff continues. But if Ukraine surrenders, the standoff simply moves to the Baltics.

Best case end-game is Putin is removed in a bloodless coup and his replacement takes the opportunity to pull back except for Crimea. EU helps Ukraine rebuild, eventually gets into NATO, and the mini Cold War 2 continues.

My guess ... there'll be a point in time when Ukraine will either have pushed Russia out of all contested territories (looking unlikely) or have pushed them out of enough contested territory (more likely), there will be peace talks and an uneasy truce. Ukrainians that want to leave the occupied territories will leave. UN will monitor the borders in the short term. Russia will have gained some territory in Ukraine but at a great cost, setting back their ambitions for quite a while, probably never to recover.

Ultimately, Ukraine will join NATO or have NATO security guarantees with boots-on-the-ground where it'll be another one of those uneasy early Israel-Sinai-Egypt situations. NATO will have emerged more united (for a while at least), the European countries will increase their military capabilities etc. And the US will pivot their attention to APAC for the Pacific version Cold War 2.

[Edward64]

Assuming this was a targeted assassination, made me wonder the "morality" of this. I can see a Putin or one of the top generals being assassinated. A submarine commander doesn't quite seem to be at the same level.

Sure he followed orders and launched the missiles, but then how about the jet pilots, company commanders etc. If Ukraine did do this, I'd lean towards condemnation (but that won't happen).

Stanislav Rzhitsky: Russian submarine commander killed in Krasnador | CNN

A Russian submarine commander was shot to death in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar on Monday, the apparent details of which were revealed by Ukrainian intelligence that stopped short of claiming responsibility for the shooting.

Stanislav Rzhitsky was killed earlier this week by an “unknown person,” Russian state news agency TASS reported, adding that “the motive for the crime is being investigated.”

Suspects for Rzhitsky’s death have been identified, according to TASS.

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence disclosed how Rzhitsky was apparently shot, in an unusually detailed statement on Telegram. The agency did not explicitly take responsibility for the commander’s death.

“The submariner was jogging in the ’30th Anniversary of Victory’ park in Krasnodar. Around 6 a.m., he was shot seven times with a Makarov pistol. As a result of the gunshot wounds, Rzhitsky died on the spot,” the statement said.

[NobodyHere]

What's wrong with killing jet pilots or company commanders in a war? Do you think they have some level of immunity?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

What's wrong with killing jet pilots or company commanders in a war? Do you think they have some level of immunity?

hell journalists don't even have that anymore

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

What's wrong with killing jet pilots or company commanders in a war? Do you think they have some level of immunity?

I make a distinction between killing and assassination in this context. Killing in combat or in the front lines, no problem. Assassination when one is back home is different.

Apply that to US troops. Would you say it's justified to assassinate jet pilots, company commanders (who killed in combat actions) after they've returned to the US?

[dubb93]

I just don’t understand some takes on this war. Russia is bombing and killing civilian targets in Ukraine nightly, but if they literally do anything in return besides slam head first into Russia’s dug in trenches people freak out.

This is a war. I would say this is a traditional war, but really it isn’t. Russia isn’t fighting a legal war within the confines of the Geneva Conventions.

How exactly is Ukraine supposed to defend themselves? Allow Russia to launch 50 missiles a night without being able to target the guy pushing those buttons? I really don’t get the reactions by some.

[Flasch186]

This

And yes

In a war you can kill the enemy anywhere that they are

Especially if they’re on your soil even that which may be contested


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[Solecismic]

People have different expectations of conduct based on who is involved. These unwritten rules are often contradictory and based on prejudices and political biases.

There's no making sense of it. I usually feel more inclined to defend the behavior of the group or individual being attacked, but what's the line between self-defense and revenge and what's the difference between revenge and deterrence? Individual examples can easily get bogged down in biases.

In this case, apparently there's a web site in Ukraine with a list of Russians they have identified as leading or perpetuating attacks on civilians. This was obviously a targeted assassination based on that list. I don't know if this person was correctly identified.

[GrantDawg]

If you are in the "Two wrongs make a right" business, then Ukraine targeting potential assignations is no worse than Russia's many war crimes. But if you are trying to hold some type of moral authority, then the old saying "wrestle with a pig and you both end up muddy" comes to mind.

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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I don't know if this person was correctly identified.

Yeah, there was an article that said the assassinated captain had actually transferred command to another guy before. No idea how accurate that is though.

[dubb93]

I would imagine if your country was being attacked because someone imagined in his head that you were nazis you would probably consider most of the attackers terrorists. I don’t really see the difference between Ukraine targeting terrorists and the countless terrorists we have targeted and killed over the years.

[Edward64]

Haven't seen this before. A bird's eye view of a blast and then the "shockwave". Hate to be anywhere close

South of Verbove, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukrainian forces hit a Russian BM-21 Grad with indirect fire.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...92865343332355

[Edward64]

Oh, what coulda, shoulda, woulda.

Shoulda roll the dice and gone out in a blaze of glory. But now, accepting photographs of you sitting in your underwear in a tent.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I make a distinction between killing and assassination in this context. Killing in combat or in the front lines, no problem. Assassination when one is back home is different.

Apply that to US troops. Would you say it's justified to assassinate jet pilots, company commanders (who killed in combat actions) after they've returned to the US?

Ukraine is involved in an ongoing war, and this was eliminating a military target. Eliminating individuals AFTER the war ends, different story. Otherwise, fair game.

[Edward64]

Let's hope the damage is significant (but minimal civilian casualties).

Ukraine needs to apply enough continuous pressure where there is a mass exodus/panic of Russian civilians back into Russia proper.

Developing story around the Kerch Bridge in Russian-occupied Crimea.

According multiple sources the bridge was under attack and hit by two strikes at 03:20am local time. The lack of anti aircraft fire suggests that it is was a naval USV attack.

It is still unclear how severe the damage is but the rumors say that one span of the car bridge is gone. Ferry services have been suspended, too. The light of the bridge is partially turned off (or electricity cut).

Traffic on both sides of the bridge is accumulating and the regional occupation commander suggests to enter Crimea using the temporarily occupied land bridge of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.