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Old 10-29-2006, 05:48 PM   #1501
spleen1015
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan T View Post
Ok, everyone needs to stop the whole I'm just going with Alan says thing. Its a cop-out regardless if you are good or bad. If something i say triggers a likely scenerio that makes sense, then go back and look it up yourself to see if you agree or not.

If you vote for sndvls its because its something you believe, not because Alan said so

To answer why i grouped the three was just because the last 2 days, the three have consistantly been in a group voting pattern avoiding all of the other lynch votes, which sometimes is a ploy that is used to make your voting look better and not draw suspicion.

Day2 Sndvls voted me, Glen and Fouts voted Sndvls
Day3 Sndvls voted Glen, Glen and Fouts voted Sndvls.

I was leaning to voting Glen and changed my mind going with Sndvls instead. I really could have gone either way, but this triangle voting pattern was more interesting to me than the current LSG vs Spleen debate.

FYI, I changed my vote from LSG to SnDvls before I read your vote. If you see the LSG post I quoted with my vote, you'll see that's where I was in thread. I hadn't gotten to your post before replying.
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Old 10-29-2006, 05:49 PM   #1502
Alan T
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Following the "identical votes" concept, Chief has voted for the same candidates I have all three days. Each of these (Bullet/Lathum/Cronin) has been the person who has been lynched.

I'm not sure what to make of this, compared to the Glen/Fouts, because SnDvls was a minority candidate in each case. Also, Chief has been putting his votes in near the deadline on all three nights. Two of them were done deals, with the only questionable one being around Lathum.

Drilling into the Chief vote, he did vote for Cronin (STARS) initially to create a tie before moving away from it to vote for Lathum (Umbrella) after being warned about vote reprecussions for creating a tie (by Alan). Is that enough to suspect Chief as Umbrella? I'm not sure how interesting that question is if we are hunting Zombies. If Rum was Zombie he didn't give a damn about the vote between an Umbrella/STARS.

I find it unlikely that chief is umbrella just because he could have saved Lathum and purposely didn't. He could have done what others did and vote the easy way out with a third party candidate, leaving the vote with Lathum in the lead as well and putting the ball in ntndeacon's court.

Instead Chief made the conscious decision to lynch Lathum regardless of what ntndeacon voted , lAthum would be lynched. I have a hard time believing Chief is umbrella from that vote.

It doesnt say anything about him being a zombie or not however. I find it weird that you are using his late votes as an arguement against him though. I mean its not like Chief doesn't have a well established job cycle that -always- puts him in at that time of night over the course of several games.

Could he be using it to his advantage this game as a zombie? Sure. But its weird you are using that as an arguement against him here.
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Old 10-29-2006, 05:52 PM   #1503
Alan T
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Originally Posted by spleen1015 View Post
FYI, I changed my vote from LSG to SnDvls before I read your vote. If you see the LSG post I quoted with my vote, you'll see that's where I was in thread. I hadn't gotten to your post before replying.

My comment was more directed at chief than you in the sense he went ahead and put the vote in for sndvls before admittedtly doing the research to backup what i had said in the thread previously.
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Old 10-29-2006, 05:54 PM   #1504
hoopsguy
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Spleen, are you moving the vote because you believe SnDvls is Umbrella/Zombie or out of self-preservation? Either is a fine reason, but you didn't list either when you changed the vote.
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Old 10-29-2006, 05:57 PM   #1505
hoopsguy
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Alan, I'm looking at the Chief vote because he initially voted for Cronin. If he had come in and voted for Lathum, without first voting for the other player, then I would have not given it a second thought.
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:02 PM   #1506
hoopsguy
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Re-read my post on the "late" votes - I said that I do not equate it to the Glen/Fouts mirror votes because the votes are coming in late. Two separate points.

1st point - that two people who are in same faction are unlikely to have mirror votes. After raising that I saw that Chief's votes this game were identical to my own. I went on to note that his votes were coming late, so he was usually putting a vote on a clear leader rather than deciding votes with the Lathum vote as an exception

2nd point - I asked about Chief initially voting for Cronin, before switching to Lathum and brought up thoughts on what that could mean in terms of his faction.

There was never a point saying "Chief is voting late, that isn't like him"
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:02 PM   #1507
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Alan, I'm looking at the Chief vote because he initially voted for Cronin. If he had come in and voted for Lathum, without first voting for the other player, then I would have not given it a second thought.

I was hardly the only one looking at st. cronin. He got a lot of votes on Days 1 and 2, and then got lynched on Day 3. If you're looking at me for voting for cronin when it turns out he was STARS, you have a lot of other suspects to look at--including yourself.

I voted on my gut there. st cronin struck me as off on Day 2, and I saw there was merit in Alan's plan that day, based on the presence of a PC. That theory has since been somewhat disproven, but there was some validity to it on Day Two and into Day Three as well.
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:03 PM   #1508
BrianD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spleen1015 View Post
UNVOTE LoneStarGirl
VOTE SnDvls

Shocker.
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:06 PM   #1509
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Re-read my post on the "late" votes - I said that I do not equate it to the Glen/Fouts mirror votes because the votes are coming in late. Two separate points.

1st point - that two people who are in same faction are unlikely to have mirror votes. After raising that I saw that Chief's votes this game were identical to my own. I went on to note that his votes were coming late, so he was usually putting a vote on a clear leader rather than deciding votes with the Lathum vote as an exception

2nd point - I asked about Chief initially voting for Cronin, before switching to Lathum and brought up thoughts on what that could mean in terms of his faction.

There was never a point saying "Chief is voting late, that isn't like him"

1st point-- two people in the same faction who can PM each other and have reason to hide their association with each other would avoid mirror votes. Since you and I are very likely both STARS with no PM abilities and just going on our guts and analysis, I would say there is little significance to the mirror votes other than that we obviously somewhat think alike (at least in this game).

2nd point-- I have addressed the cronin vote before and just did again above. Given what I knew then at the deadline of Day Two, I still would have prefered cronin over Lathum. If Lathum telegraphed his Umbrella-ness, I missed it. I only switched to Lathum for the reason mentioned: a tie would hurt us badly.
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:07 PM   #1510
BrianD
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Unvote LoneStarGirl
Vote Spleen


I said they were both at the same point on my suspicion list, and I thought their fight was staged. Spleen was the first of the two to do what I expected, so I'm giving him my vote.
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:11 PM   #1511
Alan T
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(3) Sndvls - Alan (1484), sndvls (1491), spleen (1497)
(3) Spleen - Lonestargirl (1448), Hoopsguy (1469), BrianD (1510)
(1) Lonestargirl - mr.wednesday (1488)
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:11 PM   #1512
hoopsguy
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Chief, people should be asking questions about my votes as well as they sort through their vote today. I feel like I have bigger concerns than your vote on Day 2 today but I had not seen anyone offer any thoughts about your play (or lack of it, depending on viewpoint) this game.
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:30 PM   #1513
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Originally Posted by Alan T View Post
Going out to the park for a bit. Will be back to talk more in a few hours.

Right now I am not sure that you all are going the right approach when looking at UtR folks. I don't really have an issue with looking at spleen or LSG since I dont trust either of them, but right now it looks like everyone was perfectly happy with it being a contest today between Spleen v Lonestargirl and completely ignore the other UtR.

When looking for someone utr, I wouldn't only look at post counts or the run by attacks.. but also other behavioral patterns. If i had to choose which UtR person to go for today, I likely would look at the Fouts, Glengoyne, Sndvls connection moreso than these guys.

The past three days while we've been busy killing off our own team, these three have been content voting for each other and staying out of our way. It makes their voting patterns look better, keeps them out of people's bullseyes.

I would probably right now think about Glengoyne as he has been content to stay out of the lynch votes the last two days and has stayed on the same person the entire time without really pushing anyone else to consider sndvls.

A nice quick run by and throw away vote on the way out the door to obscurity.

I have explained my votes for snDvls a couple of times. On day two, the only one of the very visible posters I was comfortable to vote for was Alan. I didn't really have that option. I didn't follow the Lathum logic, so I wanted to stay away from that vote. snDvls pops off with something I found suspicious. Much more suspicion that either of the others receiving votes. On day three, I entered the day leaning toward trusting Hoops and Cronin, they got pitted against each other and left me, essentially clueless. I misinterpreted a revisit of the snDvls activity on Day 2, and did exactly what snDvls did the day before. I voted along with a misstatement. Since I still wasn't completely satisfied with snDvls explanation, I went with him again.

I'm ok with the UtR approach, as I do believe that Alan is probably Umbrella so shouldn't be targetted for a while. Hoops could be Umbrella as well, the two of them driving discussion with the goal of eliminating as many stars as possible. Both of those are fairly bold plays, especially for a zombie. So while I dont think they are stars, I think the chance either or both of them being zombies is remote.

So I'm unhappy with either of the two people I feel like I have a reasonable handle on. snDvls was suspicious on Day 2. But that hasn't been fleshed out much.

I've got to take off for a bit, but will be back in an hour or so. I'm going to

vote snDvls

and see what happens.

I'm not emphatic about this vote and can be swayed. We need something to go on.

If nothing develops I'm seriously tempted to vote Alan or Hoops, if we can't actually get a head of steam worked up on a UtR. That is somewhat motivated so that I know NOW, rather than later, how they played everyone. I'm starting to fear that a few strong personalities drove false conversation to prevent a real effective CoT from forming. This angle also goes back to sort of an Occam's razor thought. maybe that isn't right. Maybe it goes to a bird in the hand is better than one in the bush? Alan has a good chance of being evil, and slight chance of being a zombie. I'd rather hit him rather than someone who is almost randomly selected.
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:31 PM   #1514
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Chief, people should be asking questions about my votes as well as they sort through their vote today. I feel like I have bigger concerns than your vote on Day 2 today but I had not seen anyone offer any thoughts about your play (or lack of it, depending on viewpoint) this game.

I understand that. As I have suggested, I have been a little surprised to not have come up more often in any UTR discussions. I was often fearing I would have to defend myself the past few days, but not much ever was coming at me. I guess it is better now to be here and able to respond to anything than to start a new work week tomorrow and go into daytime disappear mode again, when I might become a lynch target and unable to respond until near deadline.
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:35 PM   #1515
Lorena
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan T View Post
(3) Sndvls - Alan (1484), sndvls (1491), spleen (1497)
(3) Spleen - Lonestargirl (1448), Hoopsguy (1469), BrianD (1510)
(1) Lonestargirl - mr.wednesday (1488)

Im still pretty behind (kinda hectic here on Sundays), but Alan, post 1491 it's chief voting for Sndlvs.
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:38 PM   #1516
hoopsguy
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Here is what I have for current votes:


(4) Spleen - LSG (1448), Hoops (1469), MrW (1488), BrianD (1510)
(4) SnDvls - AlanT (1484), Rum (1491), Spleen (1497), Glen (1513)
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:39 PM   #1517
Alan T
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I think I chose poorly in my choice on who to vote for between Sndvls and Glengoyne.

I don't really like Glen's explanations about his vote for Sndvls or really about much of anything.

If I change my vote to him at this point though, it ties things back up and its a throw away vote unless others switch to him. So I'll just stay here, but right now I think Glen feels more suspicious to me than Sndvls now.
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:41 PM   #1518
Alan T
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Here is what I have for current votes:


(4) Spleen - LSG (1448), Hoops (1469), MrW (1488), BrianD (1510)
(4) SnDvls - AlanT (1484), Rum (1491), Spleen (1497), Glen (1513)


Mr.W voted for Lonestargirl, not spleen.

(4) Sndvls - Alan (1484), chiefrum (1491), spleen (1497), Glengoyne (1513)
(3) Spleen - Lonestargirl (1448), Hoopsguy (1469), BrianD (1510)
(1) Lonestargirl - mr.wednesday (1488)
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:50 PM   #1519
hoopsguy
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Glen, I think the only way that it doesn't come out today that Alan is Umbrella/STARS is if the Internal Affairs guy was converted last night.

There is a real chance of that having happened - something along the lines of 1/9 or 1/10 (they could have converted an Umbrella)? But if it has, then we are screwed. So I read this that no one coming out against Alan puts me in a position where I have to trust Alan today.

If you think Alan and I are Umbrella, and we are the players you have a handle on, then I think it make sense to go the opposite of where you go, frankly.
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:51 PM   #1520
Alan T
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Bleh, still 4 hours. Might as well.

At least I know you aren't IA so no risk killing the seer accidentally from being UtR

Unvote Sndvls
Vote Glengoyne
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Old 10-29-2006, 06:55 PM   #1521
LoneStarGirl
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For the past two days i have been saying that SNDVLS had to be bad, but Spleen obviously is too, so i am going to stick with spleen unless it looks like a tie is going to happen.
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Old 10-29-2006, 07:44 PM   #1522
hoopsguy
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And a hush has fallen over the crowd.
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Old 10-29-2006, 07:44 PM   #1523
Glengoyne
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Glen, I think the only way that it doesn't come out today that Alan is Umbrella/STARS is if the Internal Affairs guy was converted last night.

There is a real chance of that having happened - something along the lines of 1/9 or 1/10 (they could have converted an Umbrella)? But if it has, then we are screwed. So I read this that no one coming out against Alan puts me in a position where I have to trust Alan today.

If you think Alan and I are Umbrella, and we are the players you have a handle on, then I think it make sense to go the opposite of where you go, frankly.

I was wondering where you were going when you were saying that Alan was as close as you could imagine coming back clean. I guess that I wasn't even all that concerned with that opinion, since I don't have all of the warm fuzzies coming back on you. On day two, I was pretty firmly reading you as stars, even getting the seer vibe. I was preparing to follow your votes, until you flipped on Cronin. That had me questioning everything I had previously assessed.

If no one else is poking holes in your theory, I'll back off pushing for Alan's head before yours. I wouldn't expect me to drop it entirely, as I think I've mentioned before that one of my weaknesses is that I hold tightly to my own theories, even in the face of apparent evidence to the contrary.
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Old 10-29-2006, 07:50 PM   #1524
path12
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Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl View Post
For the past two days i have been saying that SNDVLS had to be bad, but Spleen obviously is too, so i am going to stick with spleen unless it looks like a tie is going to happen.

LSG, first of all, I don't think you're bad. But I really wish you would give some reasoning behind your thoughts. When you say something like the above about SnDvls, it just comes off as a hit and run attack with nothing behind it.

Personally, it really tends to make me discount your posts, and I think you're better at this than that.
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Old 10-29-2006, 07:53 PM   #1525
hoopsguy
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Glen, I wish that someone had come out and said Alan was Umbrella or Zombie. I had advocated having Internal Affairs come out today regardless of what faction Alan was associated with, but everyone has checked in and no one has staked a claim. I would think they would almost have to do it with Alan being anything but STARS.

I sincerely wish that I was a seer role - I can guarantee that this game would have gone much differently, for better or worse if I had either of those roles. Hopefully whoever does will explain in the post-game what their thought process was because I've been just baffled by their play up to this point.

The vote this afternoon feels overly random and subject to manipulation, but I don't know how to avoid that at this point. Hopefully Umbrella is equally committed to helping us get a Zombie today.
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Old 10-29-2006, 07:54 PM   #1526
path12
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Now, I don't get the SnDvls vibe that many are talking about. He's quiet, yes, and that's not helping a ton, but other than the odd post on day 2 I haven't seen anything to make me suspect him.

Spleen I suspect because of the difference in style/post counts, and I agree with what BrianD said about the attack on LSG seeming a bit forced. One way or another, I do not believe for a moment that he is stars. The problem I have is that I'm not sure he's a zombie either -- I just get Umbrella off of him.
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Old 10-29-2006, 07:57 PM   #1527
path12
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Glen, I wish that someone had come out and said Alan was Umbrella or Zombie. I had advocated having Internal Affairs come out today regardless of what faction Alan was associated with, but everyone has checked in and no one has staked a claim. I would think they would almost have to do it with Alan being anything but STARS.

I'm assuming at this point that Alan is stars because there has been nothing come out to the contrary. It's really making me rethink a lot of things, because I would have sworn he was Umbrella.......which also tells me that my analysis is not very good this game.
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Old 10-29-2006, 07:58 PM   #1528
path12
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I better get a vote in. This could change. I've given my reasons a couple times.

Vote Spleen
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:02 PM   #1529
Fouts
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Since day 2 I have been thinking that SnDvls is Umbrella. If you look back, he was trying to divert attention away from Lathum. That is why I have been voting for him.

I have no idea on the way spleen has played. He has been very UtR up until now. The question is, do I vote for a probable Umbrella, or a shot in the dark at spleen?
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:02 PM   #1530
Chubby
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3 hours to go

(3) SnDvls - Chief Rum (1491), spleen (1497), glengoyne (1513)
(1) lonestargirl - Mr Wednesday (1488)
(4) spleen - lonestargirl (1448), hoopsguy (1469), BrianD (1511), path12 (1528)
(1) glengoyne - Alan T (1520)
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:05 PM   #1531
hoopsguy
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Fouts, can you reference posts where SnDvls was trying to divert attention from Lathum? When he cast his vote for Alan on Day 2 there was not a single vote on Lathum.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:11 PM   #1532
Fouts
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Fouts, can you reference posts where SnDvls was trying to divert attention from Lathum? When he cast his vote for Alan on Day 2 there was not a single vote on Lathum.

Please answer the question.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:12 PM   #1533
Fouts
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The game is slowing down, so I'm about to liven it up some.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:15 PM   #1534
hoopsguy
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Fouts, can you reference posts where SnDvls was trying to divert attention from Lathum? When he cast his vote for Alan on Day 2 there was not a single vote on Lathum.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fouts View Post
Please answer the question.

I don't get the response here. Are you suggesting he was diverting attention from the guy with zero votes by voting for one of the people in a 4-4 tie?

Looking forward to something that livens up the game.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:15 PM   #1535
Fouts
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I am Internal Affairs. My initial thoughts were to stay alive for 4-5 days and build up a list of cleared subjects, or hit a zombie. I wanted to scan some UtR people for the endgame, figuring those in the spotlight would be killed or stay alive and be proven a bad guy.

I think we are at a point where a cleared list will help us win the game. Alas, I have not hit a zombie, but my list might help us narrow it down. I don't expect to live past the next night or two. There are 12 players left, I am about to give you 5 non-zombies.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:16 PM   #1536
spleen1015
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Spleen, are you moving the vote because you believe SnDvls is Umbrella/Zombie or out of self-preservation? Either is a fine reason, but you didn't list either when you changed the vote.

While, I would like to stay in the game, I'm just an everyday, run of the mill STARS member. Me being out of the game does nothing but help the Zombies. So, self preservation is not what I was thinking. I wanted to get LSG to talk a bit. I never intending on her being my final vote.

So, I switched it to someone that has reasons to be voted for.

One of the reasons I'm not all that active with posting this game is because I haven't picked up on as much as everyone. So, I figure it is safe just to be quiet. Also, if I play more in the future, I don't want there to be a pattern of the way I play.

There is someone in this game that knows I am telling the truth about my allegiance. So, if you vote for me, then you are not STARS in my mind.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:18 PM   #1537
Fouts
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Make that 4 people, my bad.

non-Zombies;

LSG
SnDvls
Hoopsguy
and of course, Fouts.

Some of those may, in fact, be Umbrella.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:22 PM   #1538
hoopsguy
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Fouts, why would you not have scanned Alan by now? I assume you picked me instead of him?
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:25 PM   #1539
Fouts
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Fouts, why would you not have scanned Alan by now? I assume you picked me instead of him?

Alan seemed pretty obvious Umbrella to me. He is continually putting up Stars members. I put him on the Umbrella seer role.

I thought knowing your affinity would prove a lot to me, as you kept asking for a role reveal. I would rather have scanned path or glen, but you were in the forefront.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:25 PM   #1540
hoopsguy
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Can you go through your thought process for who to scan each night?
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:27 PM   #1541
Fouts
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Can you go through your thought process for who to scan each night?

For what purpose?
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:29 PM   #1542
Fouts
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2.5 hours to use my information.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:29 PM   #1543
spleen1015
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We know that SnDvls is not a zombie per Fouts, assuming Fouts isn't lying. So, I'm not going to vote for SnDvls. He not someone I need dead to win the game.

Glengoyne has voted for SnDvls 2 days in a row.

path's votes have also been following the crowd. I think he needs to be watched as well.

UNVOTE SnDvls
VOTE Glengoyne
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:29 PM   #1544
hoopsguy
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So people can adequately assess your claim. I would not be shocked if someone emerged to dispute you in this role.

Also, did you list them in the order you scanned them? That is important for considering a conversion.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:30 PM   #1545
spleen1015
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If you are STARS, do not vote for me. I am on your side, I promise you.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:30 PM   #1546
Chief Rum
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Hmm, I was already pretty sure Hoops and Fouts were non-zombies. If this reveal is true, I am disappointed to see SnDvls and LSG cleared--they semeed very suspicious to me, and that throws things into heck a bit for me.

What is the going thoughts on spleen? I know the back and forth between him and LSG seemed odd earlier today, and, regardless of what he says, he is playing this game much different than before.

I am leaning to believing Fouts, and if so, then I think I should not vote for SnDvls, but then who do I vote for?

Fouts, if you were going to check out UTR players, why hoops? At this point, I kinda wish you had investigated Alan. His actions have driven a lot of actions in this game.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:31 PM   #1547
path12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spleen1015 View Post

path's votes have also been following the crowd. I think he needs to be watched as well.

Go ahead and watch me. But don't lie about me. I was the first vote on the only bad guy we've gotten so far. You really hate it when I vote for you.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:31 PM   #1548
Chief Rum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
Fouts, if you were going to check out UTR players, why hoops? At this point, I kinda wish you had investigated Alan. His actions have driven a lot of actions in this game.

Looks like asked and answered.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:33 PM   #1549
Fouts
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Night 1 - LSG. I wanted to scan a known UtR for endgame purposes. She made a couple flippant comments about people, and her comment about not voting for bullet because she didn't want to sealed the deal.

Night 2 - SnDvls. I was very suspicous of his hit and run, and other things small things he has said. Also, he was playing a lot quieter than past games.

Night 3 - Hoops. Had to choose either Alan or Hoops here to make sure things progress. Hoops seemed more zombie-like as Alan was playing an Umbrella and too up in our face to be a zombie.

I wanted to wait one more night, but I didn't like the direction of tonights vote and thought I might be a target of the zombies soon anyway.
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Old 10-29-2006, 08:35 PM   #1550
spleen1015
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Quote:
Originally Posted by path12 View Post
Go ahead and watch me. But don't lie about me. I was the first vote on the only bad guy we've gotten so far. You really hate it when I vote for you.

You got me there. You voted as part of the crowd. Poor choice of words on my part.

Honestly, I'm not paying attention to who is voting for me. I just put you out there after looking at voting history.
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