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Old 02-14-2006, 03:26 PM   #1501
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or not, doh!
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:27 PM   #1502
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Dar we go, hehe
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:27 PM   #1503
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One other thing we learn from this - as is evident from hoops' corpse, he was exactly that simple survivor as has been talked about. Which means that the characters we've seen - Charlie, Hurley and Jack - were likely all specials. So not only are we down 4 villagers, but we're down 3 specials and no wolves in sight.
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:28 PM   #1504
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Originally Posted by Desnudo
I'm actually starting to understand a little how Blade feels sometimes. I was going to put my spreadsheet from last game together, but honestly, I'm feeling selfish right now. In that right now I don't really care if the survivors win if I die before the game ends.

Des, I for one would find it very helpful if you would post your spreadsheet.
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:28 PM   #1505
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Originally Posted by Celeval
One other thing we learn from this - as is evident from hoops' corpse, he was exactly that simple survivor as has been talked about. Which means that the characters we've seen - Charlie, Hurley and Jack - were likely all specials. So not only are we down 4 villagers, but we're down 3 specials and no wolves in sight.
After this full day cycle i think we will be in sight...if not in the rear-view mirror...either alan/desnudo or sun are wolves...crazy idea#1 is that all 3 are
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:29 PM   #1506
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Originally Posted by path12
Des, I for one would find it very helpful if you would post your spreadsheet.

Very much agreed.
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:30 PM   #1507
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
After this full day cycle i think we will be in sight...if not in the rear-view mirror...either alan/desnudo or sun are wolves...crazy idea#1 is that all 3 are

The thing I'm having the most problem with is that both Sun and Alan are saying not to vote for you, even though you're positive at least one of them or both are other.
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:34 PM   #1508
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
You know whats funny, the two people im most sure are wovles, desnudo and alan, have been the two ive agreed with the most recently...which worries me for good and bad reasons...

What I find funny the Comic Book Guy level irony of you coming after me tonight if SunDvls chooses Alan. I should have known something like this would happen.

Personally, I believe SunDvls is who he says he is. Someone would have disputed it earlier if he wasn't.
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:35 PM   #1509
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Originally Posted by path12
The thing I'm having the most problem with is that both Sun and Alan are saying not to vote for you, even though you're positive at least one of them or both are other.
Basically, i see it as wolves and a special human role or all wolves...wolves know im good, and certain human roles could as well(seer, witness, bodyguard, empath could all know)
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:36 PM   #1510
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Originally Posted by Desnudo
What I find funny the Comic Book Guy level irony of you coming after me tonight if SunDvls chooses Alan. I should have known something like this would happen.

Personally, I believe SunDvls is who he says he is. Someone would have disputed it earlier if he wasn't.
2 things

-I accused you of being linked with alan BEFORE sndvls made any move on alan

-what the hell has sndvls claimed to be?
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:37 PM   #1511
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Originally Posted by path12
Des, I for one would find it very helpful if you would post your spreadsheet.

I will post it later. Sorry, I didn't mean to be melodramatic about it. Some of that post was just venting. It's not a whole lot of fun being the inquisitioned. I like being the inquisitor better.
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:38 PM   #1512
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
2 things

-I accused you of being linked with alan BEFORE sndvls made any move on alan

-what the hell has sndvls claimed to be?

Don't get what you're saying?

Sawyer, aka the duke
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:40 PM   #1513
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Originally Posted by Desnudo
Don't get what you're saying?

Sawyer, aka the duke
Now i get your point one after your idea on point two. I wasnt thinking lynch, i was thinking night kill...i was wondering how he was sure i couldnt kill him. I want to wait a bit to see if anyone reacts, as i had someone else pegged as the duke...but this is very interesting
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:40 PM   #1514
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Originally Posted by Desnudo
What I find funny the Comic Book Guy level irony of you coming after me tonight if SunDvls chooses Alan. I should have known something like this would happen.

Personally, I believe SunDvls is who he says he is. Someone would have disputed it earlier if he wasn't.

I think I see. Blade, I was commenting on the irony of you coming to kill me in the game after our blow-up earlier.
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:41 PM   #1515
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Originally Posted by path12
The thing I'm having the most problem with is that both Sun and Alan are saying not to vote for you, even though you're positive at least one of them or both are other.


the reason I say vote Alan or I is simple.

let's say Alan and I were both misled and we are both villagers. It dams Blade and in my opinion clears Desnudo.

If I'm a wolf and Alan is a villager it dams blade and clears Desnudo

If Alan is a wolf then I am a villager and I think it pretty much clears Blade.

in any case we get two known villagers out of the deal.
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:42 PM   #1516
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Originally Posted by Desnudo
I think I see. Blade, I was commenting on the irony of you coming to kill me in the game after our blow-up earlier.
lol, short term memory...i had honestly forgotten...but now that you mention it
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:46 PM   #1517
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Originally Posted by SnDvls
the reason I say vote Alan or I is simple.

let's say Alan and I were both misled and we are both villagers. It dams Blade and in my opinion clears Desnudo.

If I'm a wolf and Alan is a villager it dams blade and clears Desnudo

If Alan is a wolf then I am a villager and I think it pretty much clears Blade.

in any case we get two known villagers out of the deal.


no, if I die to the lynch today, don't go after Blade. Thats the one thing i am trying to make clear. Also, I wouldn't clear Desnudo at my death either. I think he is doing the same thing to me that you are doing with Blade right now. I don't think we want to have any more confusion from a survivor's lynching.

I think its very clear cut here if I get lynched and turn out to be the villager I say, it condemns one person : Sundvls.

If he gets lynched and ends up a villager, then fine, come after me. I misread him bad enough to deserve that death.

I think Desnudo and Raiders still need to be scrutinized on their own merits after this regardless of what happens. Blade needs to not be voted for, thats all I am saying here.
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:47 PM   #1518
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
lol, short term memory...i had honestly forgotten...but now that you mention it

Well forget I brought it up. Set security to: Schmidty

Anyway, I looked back and saw the night comment.

I took the duke role from this:

"Alan & Desnudo which of you boys wants to go down, because I know it won't be me?"

If he can shield himself from a night kill too then it's obviously an expanded role.
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:49 PM   #1519
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Originally Posted by Desnudo
Well forget I brought it up. Set security to: Schmidty

Anyway, I looked back and saw the night comment.

I took the duke role from this:

"Alan & Desnudo which of you boys wants to go down, because I know it won't be me?"

If he can shield himself from a night kill too then it's obviously an expanded role.

If he is in a duke-role, as it sounds like, I think he is pretty much saying he will kill you or Alan if he is lynched. I don't see anything regarding a night kill.
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:50 PM   #1520
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Originally Posted by Swaggs
If he is in a duke-role, as it sounds like, I think he is pretty much saying he will kill you or Alan if he is lynched. I don't see anything regarding a night kill.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SnDvls
Blade - I'm telling you I won't die tonight period you can read into it all you want.
Thats what were talking about...he talked about the duke in another post
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:54 PM   #1521
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
Thats what were talking about...he talked about the duke in another post

So, he's either bluffing (very well) or he is the duke.
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Old 02-14-2006, 03:55 PM   #1522
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Originally Posted by Swaggs
So, he's either bluffing (very well) or he is the duke.
if he is the duke, how does that effect his night action invulnerability?
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:00 PM   #1523
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It looks like I'm going to have a lot of fun counting the votes again.
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:02 PM   #1524
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Originally Posted by Swaggs
So, he's either bluffing (very well) or he is the duke.


Not bluffing even though I am Sawyer who on the show is a con man.
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:03 PM   #1525
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
if he is the duke, how does that effect his night action invulnerability?


it doesn't I ment tonight as in the lynch tonight or night lynch not night kill.
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:04 PM   #1526
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Outside of my comments do you have much reason to go after alan?
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:04 PM   #1527
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Originally Posted by Alan T
no, if I die to the lynch today, don't go after Blade. Thats the one thing i am trying to make clear. Also, I wouldn't clear Desnudo at my death either. I think he is doing the same thing to me that you are doing with Blade right now. I don't think we want to have any more confusion from a survivor's lynching.

I think its very clear cut here if I get lynched and turn out to be the villager I say, it condemns one person : Sundvls.

If he gets lynched and ends up a villager, then fine, come after me. I misread him bad enough to deserve that death.

I think Desnudo and Raiders still need to be scrutinized on their own merits after this regardless of what happens. Blade needs to not be voted for, thats all I am saying here.


how is it clear cut that a villager duke-role condems me for picking another villager? It means you and I were both misled. I don't know where you are getting your info from that you believe I'm an other, but mine is coming from me believing blade who thinks you are an other.
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:06 PM   #1528
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
Outside of my comments do you have much reason to go after alan?


his quick vote on me for one. after last night I pulled off him. I started to belive that he was good. This is the thanks I get for it. I made a mistake pulling off him last night and giving him another night. It won't happen with the lynch tonight.
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:07 PM   #1529
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Originally Posted by SnDvls
his quick vote on me for one. after last night I pulled off him. I started to belive that he was good. This is the thanks I get for it. I made a mistake pulling off him last night and giving him another night. It won't happen with the lynch tonight.
I want to make sure you are aware i dont have facts...only gut feelings...some of which im still forming...

is your role repeatable?
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:12 PM   #1530
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
I want to make sure you are aware i dont have facts...only gut feelings...some of which im still forming...
you sure were gunning for him earlier. even going so far as to say if you died to go after Alan T, why the change in heart?
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:16 PM   #1531
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Originally Posted by SnDvls
you sure were gunning for him earlier. even going so far as to say if you died to go after Alan T, why the change in heart?
Becuase if i had died it would of been because i was too close. Wolves wouldnt have taken a shot of losing two wolves if they werent desperate. In my humble opinion, desnudo and alan are both wolves...but the possibility lies they are special human roles. The fact he says he knows for sure im clean enters the possibility of seer into my head, as well as witness, as well as bodyguard, but more then anything empath.

Lost has been a game of clues, so i can easily see an empath role that allowed the user to check 2 statements(thats the norm for that role)...and today he says he knows for sure two people are safe...myself, and the person i voted for before alan...just thinking out all roles
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:19 PM   #1532
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okay all you quiet one's I want you opinion no this. That means I honestly don't want to hear what Alan, Blade or Desnudo have to say.

What are the benefits of keeping and or killing the above three people?

Do you think I'm being played by Blade?
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:20 PM   #1533
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you said you didnt want a response, but ive made it clear i will kill tonight...that should clear me
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:27 PM   #1534
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Blade, think about my MO in other WW games. When I'm on the line I plead to be spared to prove myself tomorrow I'm askiing to be put on the line tonight it doesn't fit my MO. I'm not that good of a WW player to be lying.
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:29 PM   #1535
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Originally Posted by SnDvls
Blade, think about my MO in other WW games. When I'm on the line I plead to be spared to prove myself tomorrow I'm askiing to be put on the line tonight it doesn't fit my MO. I'm not that good of a WW player to be lying.
I already think the best idea is to lynch you, and let you duke if you can or die a wolf...im just trying to make sure i get the discussion in on who to duke before i do. its possible only one of them is bad, maybe even none...im working through everything so we get the best result.

You never answered me, is it repeatable
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:30 PM   #1536
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
if he is the duke, how does that effect his night action invulnerability?

I'm not sure what you mean about invulnerability, but I will give my opinions none the less.

I think he probably screwed up by making things so clear, although there could be some very helpful confusion (more on that in a moment).

The duke should be a bad cop when it comes to lynching. Stepping on toes and pushing hard to see how people react. Since he is really in no danger of being lynched, he can be the attack dog, which is a powerful position to be in.

However, once he has used his action (of subbing himself or someone else out of being lynched and putting someone else in their place), he is kind of in no man's name. To the survivors, he is clearly not an other, so he will not be lynched. However, since he is clearly a survivor, he is in danger of being killed at night, because he is basically just a placeholder and is not an other-friendly role, that increases the odds of us picking an other during a lynch.

Now, where the helpful confusion comes in, is that our bodyguard can protect him as often as possible and hopefully make the others waste a night kill turn. It will give the others a lot to think about.
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:33 PM   #1537
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Originally Posted by SnDvls
okay all you quiet one's I want you opinion no this. That means I honestly don't want to hear what Alan, Blade or Desnudo have to say.

What are the benefits of keeping and or killing the above three people?

Do you think I'm being played by Blade?

For what it is worth, I would put those three with Saldana as my prime suspects right now.

That said, I am now leaning towards Sndvls, if he is going to pick off one of those two, like he said. Should clear a lot up.
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:34 PM   #1538
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
I already think the best idea is to lynch you, and let you duke if you can or die a wolf...


Thats one of the best ideas you've had all game. I was thinking the same thing. If we vote to lynch SnDvls, we will have alot more to go on tomorrow than just voting AlanT. If SnDvls is a wolf, he's dead, and if he's the duke he can use his duchy powers and move the kill to who he chooses. I like this idea.
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:38 PM   #1539
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:43 PM   #1540
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Got caught up. Bad, bad, thing that hoops got taken out. I changed my mind, I'm not going to the bunker.

I think spleen might be good after all. hoops vouched for him, so that's good enough for me. I'm going to have to take a look at this SnDvls/AlanT showdown.
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:47 PM   #1541
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SnDvls

Do you think I'm being played by Blade?


I think we are ALL being played by Blade in some way. I just haven't pinpointed it yet.
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Old 02-14-2006, 04:58 PM   #1542
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I think we are ALL being played by Blade in some way. I just haven't pinpointed it yet.
I trust Blade and if I'm being played, then I'm being played really well.
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Old 02-14-2006, 05:02 PM   #1543
Alan T
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Ok, I still feel to some extend Sndvls is bluffing, let me use this reasoning, if I was an other, I would know he wasnt one. Since he had previously hinted to being Sawyer which people had mentioned as a duke before in this thread, why would I go head to head with the duke?

But at this point, I don't think this vote is about being reasonable, I think this vote is purely mathematical. I have a strong feeling the last two day votes were manipulated by wolves to make them the way they were to leave us less clues. I have been the very first vote on all three days on my particular person, so there is very little manipulating that i could have done thus far. But to prevent any further manipulating to be done today, here are our choices:

A) Sndvls is good, and I am bad. You vote to lynch me = Wolf dead, no time wasted GOOD!

B) Sndvls is bad, I am good and you all vote to lynch me = villager dead, tommorrow sndvls is lynched, Wolf dead is Good. however 1 wasted day.

C) Sndvls is good, I am bad and you vote to lynch Sndvls = He uses his duke role on me and I am dead anyways. 1 villager confirmed, 1 wolf dead, no time wasted. Good!

D) Snvls is bad, I am good, and you vote to lynch Sndvls = Wolf dead, no time wasted GOOD!

E) Sndvls is good and I am good , you vote me = I die, fingers point at Sndvls, and tommorrows vote to kill him shows another innocent villager. 2 days wasted, no ground gained. BAD!

F) Sndvls is good, and I am good, you vote Sndvls = He uses duke role on me, I die, show to be an innocent, but you clear Sndvls, so bad a villager is dead, but only 1 wasted day involved.


Now out of all of those scenerios, voting for Sndvls in EVERY case ends up with either a wolf dead, or the least possible wasted time.

Right now I think the only option is to vote Sndvls and he has to duke me if he is not bluffing. It sucks for me if he is not bluffing, as yet another WW day 3 death for me, but its the best interest of our villagers in my opinion.

I honestly will have severe doubts about anyone who goes against the strategy, especially people purposely trying to force a tie in case the tiebreaker was a one time thing only.
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Old 02-14-2006, 05:13 PM   #1544
path12
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Originally Posted by Raiders Army
I trust Blade and if I'm being played, then I'm being played really well.

Ditto.
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Old 02-14-2006, 05:22 PM   #1545
Alan T
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Originally Posted by Raiders Army
I trust Blade and if I'm being played, then I'm being played really well.

Since I don't think it will harm anything at this point (hopefully), he hasn't been playing anyone. He just didn't want to die before getting a second chance to assasinate someone at night. All of the lies and mistrusts from people about what he has said has been purely so he stays alive to be able to fufill his role.
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Old 02-14-2006, 05:53 PM   #1546
path12
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Originally Posted by Alan T
Since I don't think it will harm anything at this point (hopefully), he hasn't been playing anyone. He just didn't want to die before getting a second chance to assasinate someone at night. All of the lies and mistrusts from people about what he has said has been purely so he stays alive to be able to fufill his role.

And you know this a) for a fact? and b) because?
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Old 02-14-2006, 05:54 PM   #1547
SnDvls
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
I already think the best idea is to lynch you, and let you duke if you can or die a wolf...im just trying to make sure i get the discussion in on who to duke before i do. its possible only one of them is bad, maybe even none...im working through everything so we get the best result.

You never answered me, is it repeatable


I didn't answer you on purpose. Don't want too much info out there.
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Old 02-14-2006, 06:23 PM   #1548
pennywisesb
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Join Date: Apr 2004
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Originally Posted by Alan T
Ok, I still feel to some extend Sndvls is bluffing, let me use this reasoning, if I was an other, I would know he wasnt one. Since he had previously hinted to being Sawyer which people had mentioned as a duke before in this thread, why would I go head to head with the duke?

But at this point, I don't think this vote is about being reasonable, I think this vote is purely mathematical. I have a strong feeling the last two day votes were manipulated by wolves to make them the way they were to leave us less clues. I have been the very first vote on all three days on my particular person, so there is very little manipulating that i could have done thus far. But to prevent any further manipulating to be done today, here are our choices:

A) Sndvls is good, and I am bad. You vote to lynch me = Wolf dead, no time wasted GOOD!

B) Sndvls is bad, I am good and you all vote to lynch me = villager dead, tommorrow sndvls is lynched, Wolf dead is Good. however 1 wasted day.

C) Sndvls is good, I am bad and you vote to lynch Sndvls = He uses his duke role on me and I am dead anyways. 1 villager confirmed, 1 wolf dead, no time wasted. Good!

D) Snvls is bad, I am good, and you vote to lynch Sndvls = Wolf dead, no time wasted GOOD!

E) Sndvls is good and I am good , you vote me = I die, fingers point at Sndvls, and tommorrows vote to kill him shows another innocent villager. 2 days wasted, no ground gained. BAD!

F) Sndvls is good, and I am good, you vote Sndvls = He uses duke role on me, I die, show to be an innocent, but you clear Sndvls, so bad a villager is dead, but only 1 wasted day involved.


Now out of all of those scenerios, voting for Sndvls in EVERY case ends up with either a wolf dead, or the least possible wasted time.

Right now I think the only option is to vote Sndvls and he has to duke me if he is not bluffing. It sucks for me if he is not bluffing, as yet another WW day 3 death for me, but its the best interest of our villagers in my opinion.

I honestly will have severe doubts about anyone who goes against the strategy, especially people purposely trying to force a tie in case the tiebreaker was a one time thing only.

Very nice analysis. I'm sticking with SnDvls for these very reasons.
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Old 02-14-2006, 06:24 PM   #1549
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Just got home and wow 31 pages now.
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Old 02-14-2006, 06:31 PM   #1550
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Just realized this day ends tomorrow. What's up with that?!
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