Werewolf LXXVI - The Werewolf Draft! Game over, see last pages for details

[Alan T]

So no one else finds it funny how violent people were being about how Telle needs to be saved, yet given the same opportunity to do so, they aren't doing it?

[SnDvls]

Vote count please through Telle's switch

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Vote count please through Telle's switch

(5) Telle - Passacaglia (1268), Goldeneagle (1273), Oliegirl (1274), Chief Rum (1383), Alan (1419)
(5) Saldana - claphamsa (1291), Mrs.Schmidty (1358), mccollins (1408), Packerfanatic (1417), Telle (1485)
(4) Passacaglia - Saldana (1340), Render (1356), Lonestargirl (1389), Lathum (1424)
(2) Oliegirl - Eaglefan (1311), Danny (1282)

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

5 - Telle - Passacaglia (1268), GoldenEagle (1273), oliegirl (1274), Chief Rum (1383), Alan T (1419)
5 - Passacaglia - Telle (1316), saldana (1340), RendeR (1356), LoneStarGirl (1389), Lathum (1424)
4 - saldana - claphamsa (1291), Mrs. Schmidty (1358), mccollins (1408), PackerFanatic (1417)
2 - oliegirl - Danny (1282), EagleFan (1311)

no vote: SnDvls, Schmidty

this plus Telle's switch correct?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Alan T

So no one else finds it funny how violent people were being about how Telle needs to be saved, yet given the same opportunity to do so, they aren't doing it?

Lathum isn't on right now, and I'm guessing RendeR is being distracted by two toddling monsters I would expect at least one of them to follow my lead to moving to saldana.

[SnDvls]

thanks

Vote Saldana

of the 3 people it is/was between him & Pass here

[Telle]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

this plus Telle's switch correct?

Yes.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Telle

Lathum isn't on right now, and I'm guessing RendeR is being distracted by two toddling monsters I would expect at least one of them to follow my lead to moving to saldana.

Lathum was given the chance earlier when he was on, so he may not be on now, but he could have done it previously.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Telle

I don't know anything about saldana or LoneStarGirl. If you're a villager and they're wolves perhaps they see you as a good target since you've been outspoken and drawn attention? As far as Lathum.. it appears that he gets it and is trying to keep me from getting lynched.

This is a pretty good answer. This would be a lot easier if RendeR hadn't been so vehement in your defense last game, when you were a wolf.

[Alan T]

See, now that I can singularly make it a 2 vote Saldana lead myself, they lost their chance to prove to me that this vote was more about saving Telle than some other agenda. The failure to take me up on that offer in a heart beat to do something that was so blatantly obvious supposedly as they were telling me just doesn't feel right to me.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

This is a pretty good answer. This would be a lot easier if RendeR hadn't been so vehement in your defense last game, when you were a wolf.

I'm trying to give Render a little benefit of the doubt in my head since I know last game he was in my defense too and I was a wolf then also.. but he is making it hard for me to do so with his actions and words right now.,

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

This is a pretty good answer. This would be a lot easier if RendeR hadn't been so vehement in your defense last game, when you were a wolf.

He defended me that game? I don't remember that. I'd ask for a reference but I don't like cross-game posting

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Alan T

See, now that I can singularly make it a 2 vote Saldana lead myself, they lost their chance to prove to me that this vote was more about saving Telle than some other agenda. The failure to take me up on that offer in a heart beat to do something that was so blatantly obvious supposedly as they were telling me just doesn't feel right to me.

Then don't do it yet. Give them some time.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Lathum was given the chance earlier when he was on, so he may not be on now, but he could have done it previously.

Honestly, so far in this game, unless there was some type of proof on Saldana rather than suspicion, I doubt Lathum would vote for him.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Honestly, so far in this game, unless there was some type of proof on Saldana rather than suspicion, I doubt Lathum would vote for him.

But Lathum made it so clear that lynching Telle was the worst thing in the world, that it should be so easy to see, he threatened me, he attacked me... how could I let her be lynched....

Yet when given the same opportunity to save her he chose not to.

[st.cronin]

6 - saldana - claphamsa (1291), Mrs. Schmidty (1358), mccollins (1408), PackerFanatic (1417), Telle (1485), SnDvls (1506)
5 - Telle - Passacaglia (1268), GoldenEagle (1273), oliegirl (1274), Chief Rum (1383), Alan T (1419)
4 - Passacaglia - saldana (1340), RendeR (1356), LoneStarGirl (1389), Lathum (1424)
2 - oliegirl - Danny (1282), EagleFan (1311)

no vote: Schmidty

[mccollins]

Votes as of post 1514:
6 - saldana - claphasma (1291), Mrs. Schmidty (1358), McCollins (1408), PackerFanatic (1417), Telle (1485), SnDvls (1506)
5 - Telle - Passacaglia (1268), GoldenEagle (1273), oliegirl (1274), Chief Rum (1383), Alan T (1419)
4 - Passacaglia - saldana (1340), RendeR (1356), LoneStarGirl (1389), Lathum (1424)
2 - oliegirl - Danny (1282), EagleFan (1311)

Yet to vote: Schmidty

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Alan T

But Lathum made it so clear that lynching Telle was the worst thing in the world, that it should be so easy to see, he threatened me, he attacked me... how could I let her be lynched....

Yet when given the same opportunity to save her he chose not to.

And I think he wants to avoid voting for his friend that badly. I can understand it from a RL perspective.

[EagleFan]

Please explain the run on Telle?

She was scanned good by Lathum which means the following things come into play:

Either Lathum is the real seer or the fool:

If he's the real seer (50%), we lynch a villager.

If it's the fake seer:

Telle is a wolf and came up good (about a 25% chance overall of her being a wolf)
Telle is good and came up good (about a 75% chance overall of her being a villager)

We have 50% chance Lathum is seer, 12.5% chance Lathum is fool and Telle is wolf and 37.5% chance Lathum is fool and Telle is still good.

This gives us a 1 in 8 chance of getting a wolf if we pick her (and learning something) but a much better chance picking someone else.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Please explain the run on Telle?

She was scanned good by Lathum which means the following things come into play:

Either Lathum is the real seer or the fool:

If he's the real seer (50%), we lynch a villager.

If it's the fake seer:

Telle is a wolf and came up good (about a 25% chance overall of her being a wolf)
Telle is good and came up good (about a 75% chance overall of her being a villager)

We have 50% chance Lathum is seer, 12.5% chance Lathum is fool and Telle is wolf and 37.5% chance Lathum is fool and Telle is still good.

This gives us a 1 in 8 chance of getting a wolf if we pick her (and learning something) but a much better chance picking someone else.

You missed the part of the possibilities where Lathum is the cultist, he signled the wolves to lay off of him by scanning Telle first to clear her, and if ever a real seer did scan her he could just say "See proves I am the fake seer" which until now pretty much everyone else seems to be believing.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You missed the part of the possibilities where Lathum is the cultist, he signled the wolves to lay off of him by scanning Telle first to clear her, and if ever a real seer did scan her he could just say "See proves I am the fake seer" which until now pretty much everyone else seems to be believing.

Now there's a far-fetched theory? Can you try to think of a simpler one where I'm actually good? It appears that a few people have.

[Telle]

First question mark should have been a period.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Telle

Now there's a far-fetched theory? Can you try to think of a simpler one where I'm actually good? It appears that a few people have.

If he's explaining the run, I don't think it matters.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

If he's explaining the run, I don't think it matters.

Oh.. yeah. I just don't want weird theories like that getting into peoples heads. And I'm still trying to get Alan to see what's right in front of him

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

If he's explaining the run, I don't think it matters.

Or maybe I should say, if he's just responding to EagleFan's assertion. EF is ignoring a TON of what's gone on today.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Alan T

See, now that I can singularly make it a 2 vote Saldana lead myself, they lost their chance to prove to me that this vote was more about saving Telle than some other agenda. The failure to take me up on that offer in a heart beat to do something that was so blatantly obvious supposedly as they were telling me just doesn't feel right to me.

Some of us have other responsibilities Alan, I haven't been right at the machine for a bit now, have a little patience.


UNVOTE PASS
VOTE SALDANA


Happy now?

[Alan T]

Render, I understand that people have other responsibilities. I myself have a conference call in a few minutes that will tie me up..

but I was just saying you did post in thread after I gave you that option.. so the vote is good, but it isn't as good in my mind as if you had done it right away instead of post more responding to me afterwards. I just feel if you feel that strongly about something and are given a way out of the situation, you leap on it.. you don't post more arguements instead.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You missed the part of the possibilities where Lathum is the cultist, he signled the wolves to lay off of him by scanning Telle first to clear her, and if ever a real seer did scan her he could just say "See proves I am the fake seer" which until now pretty much everyone else seems to be believing.

And those odds are about 5% that he is the cultist and 25% of that portion that Telle is a wolf.

We still don't learn if he is the cultist by lynching Telle, no matter what the results are.

I see no reason for him to fake reveal and it seemed too much like the wolves are trying to set him up for a lynching.

This will at least tell us something by the votint records today. If/when Telle comes back good we need to look into those making the push for her to be lynched in a serious manner.

I personally believe that Lathum is on the level after seeing how things have played out. That is a huge leap of faith for me as I usually think he is lying in every post. He could tell me that the sky is blue and I wouldn't believe him mid-game.

Now for Saldana, I don't have a great feeling from him. He seems too defensive (as defensive as I usually get when I was a wolf).

With that said, oliegirl is still on the top of my list of who not to turn your back on when the moon comes out.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Or maybe I should say, if he's just responding to EagleFan's assertion. EF is ignoring a TON of what's gone on today.

I am reading very quickly while at work. My time is very limited so I could have easily miseed things. What did I miss? I am looking at the main points which were votes and subsequent explanations.

[SnDvls]

Lathum - is there anything in you PM that you are allowed to share with the scans that might give you a hint about the reliability of your scans? i.e. does it say something like "Telle is not a wolf" or "Telle seems to be on the side of good".

Just wondering if the info St. C is giving you allows you to read anything into it at all to help us along.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You missed the part of the possibilities where Lathum is the cultist, he signled the wolves to lay off of him by scanning Telle first to clear her, and if ever a real seer did scan her he could just say "See proves I am the fake seer" which until now pretty much everyone else seems to be believing.

i thouht of this too, but im sure the philsipher has scanned lathum by now. and its a worlthless role otherwise so why wouldnt they just says so if lathum were the cultist?

[EagleFan]

I don't get alan in this game. He seems to have his own agenda.

Oh well, I have to get back to the grind. If I am lucky I will try to get back online around the deadline, if I can get away from the bosses.

I am looking forward to going over this thread tonight, it should provide for some interesting analysis.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I am reading very quickly while at work. My time is very limited so I could have easily miseed things. What did I miss? I am looking at the main points which were votes and subsequent explanations.

I'm not sure what you missed exactly -- just that your whole argument seems to rest on Lathum's scan, which we can't really use (thus the votes on me as well), and there's been a lot more for us to go on instead of playing with random probabilities.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Votes as of post 1409 (assuming Danny's vote counts):
4 - Telle - Passacaglia (1268), GoldenEagle (1273), oliegirl (1274), Chief Rum (1383)
4 - Passacaglia - Telle (1316), saldana (1340), RendeR (1356), LoneStarGirl (1389)
4 - saldana - Alan T (1281), claphasma (1291), Mrs. Schmidty (1358), McCollins
1 - Danny - Lathum (1256)
1 - oliegirl - Danny (1282), EagleFan (1311)
1 - LoneStarGirl - PackerFanatic (1319)

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Of the three tied right now, I feel that at least one of them is a wolf...and I really have strong feelings toward Saldana.

UNVOTE LONESTARGIRL
VOTE SALDANA

Originally Posted by Alan T

In fact, I think I talked myself into it for now even..

Unvote Saldana

Vote Telle

Originally Posted by Lathum

just kidding GE

UNVOTE GE
VOTE PASSACAGLIA

Originally Posted by st.cronin

5 - Telle - Passacaglia (1268), GoldenEagle (1273), oliegirl (1274), Chief Rum (1383), Alan T (1419)
5 - Passacaglia - Telle (1316), saldana (1340), RendeR (1356), LoneStarGirl (1389), Lathum (1424)
4 - saldana - claphamsa (1291), Mrs. Schmidty (1358), mccollins (1408), PackerFanatic (1417)
2 - oliegirl - Danny (1282), EagleFan (1311)

no vote: SnDvls, Schmidty

Originally Posted by Alan T

I said the same thing to Lathum earlier. Saldana is a viable candidate just sitting there if you really feel you must save Telle. He didn't want to save Telle bad enough to switch there though.. I'm guessing you won't either.

Originally Posted by Alan T

I still haven't seen anyone try to save Telle by moving their vote to Saldana

Alan, unless I am mistaken you are misinforming people by saying if they want to save telle to vote for Saldana.

You are saying I should have voted Sal instead of Pass which is wrong. Both Sal and PAss had 4 votes to Telles 5 when I voted so a vote for Pass accomplishes the same thing.

If people want to save Telle a vote for PAss is just as good yet you are completly ignoring that fact

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Alan, unless I am mistaken you are misinforming people by saying if they want to save telle to vote for Saldana.

You are saying I should have voted Sal instead of Pass which is wrong. Both Sal and PAss had 4 votes to Telles 5 when I voted so a vote for Pass accomplishes the same thing.

If people want to save Telle a vote for PAss is just as good yet you are completly ignoring that fact

I don't see Alan in the thread, but I think he was saying that he would move his vote to saldana, but not me -- so if you wanted to save Telle, you would have been better served by moving your vote to sal. But I don't want to put words in his mouth.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't see Alan in the thread, but I think he was saying that he would move his vote to saldana, but not me -- so if you wanted to save Telle, you would have been better served by moving your vote to sal. But I don't want to put words in his mouth.

My point is that for most of the day you and Saldana have been tied and Telle one vote ahead.

Yet Alan keeps harping on the fact that the only way to save Telle is to vote Saldana. He is completly ignoring the fact that a vote for you can also save Telle.

[Lathum]

My guess is that Alan has his own winning condition and Sal or Pass has something to do with it.

I think it is important that just because Alan is close to a COT it doesn't mean his theories/opinions are any more correct then anyone elses

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

My point is that for most of the day you and Saldana have been tied and Telle one vote ahead.

Yet Alan keeps harping on the fact that the only way to save Telle is to vote Saldana. He is completly ignoring the fact that a vote for you can also save Telle.

I don't think he said the 'only' way to save Telle was to vote saldana. I think he was just implying that a vote for Saldana would do a better job.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Lathum - is there anything in you PM that you are allowed to share with the scans that might give you a hint about the reliability of your scans? i.e. does it say something like "Telle is not a wolf" or "Telle seems to be on the side of good".

Just wondering if the info St. C is giving you allows you to read anything into it at all to help us along.

there has been some wording that leads me to believe I may be the fake.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Lathum

My point is that for most of the day you and Saldana have been tied and Telle one vote ahead.

Yet Alan keeps harping on the fact that the only way to save Telle is to vote Saldana. He is completly ignoring the fact that a vote for you can also save Telle.

My guess was that Alan had a theory that Render, myself, and maybe you were wolves and that saldana is also a wolf and thus we won't vote for him. So in order to show him that we're not a pack of wolves, we should vote for saldana rather than Pass who I guess Alan thinks is more likely a villager.

At least that's how I took it and why I moved my vote to saldana.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't think he said the 'only' way to save Telle was to vote saldana. I think he was just implying that a vote for Saldana would do a better job.

I'm gonna go all RendeR on this one, and say that I could be wrong here -- he might have said that, but I haven't been studying the Book of Alan enough to have it all memorized.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't think he said the 'only' way to save Telle was to vote saldana. I think he was just implying that a vote for Saldana would do a better job.

cmon Pass.

he has been balls to the walls about Sal and completly ignored the fact a vote for you accomplishes the same thing.

If you come back wolf I suggest people look at alan, maybe he is a duke/cultise or something

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

cmon Pass.

he has been balls to the walls about Sal and completly ignored the fact a vote for you accomplishes the same thing.

If you come back wolf I suggest people look at alan, maybe he is a duke/cultise or something

He really hasn't 'ignored' it. He's made it clear that he doesn't plan to vote for me. Therefore, if you want to get him to switch off Telle, it would have to be to Saldana.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

And I think he wants to avoid voting for his friend that badly. I can understand it from a RL perspective.

Me and Sal are BFF's in real life but if I thought he was the best candidate I would vote for him.

The only day I refuse to vote him is day 1 unless it is to save myself.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Lathum

there has been some wording that leads me to believe I may be the fake.

if you are alive tonight then I'd assume you are the fake seer (or a wolf role) as the wolves would have scanned you w/ the scorcer to find out the truth on night 1 or 2 and if you were the true seer you'd be dead by this point.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Render, I understand that people have other responsibilities. I myself have a conference call in a few minutes that will tie me up..

but I was just saying you did post in thread after I gave you that option.. so the vote is good, but it isn't as good in my mind as if you had done it right away instead of post more responding to me afterwards. I just feel if you feel that strongly about something and are given a way out of the situation, you leap on it.. you don't post more arguements instead.

And your making far too much out of the fact that I wasn't at the machine and COULDN't have jumped on it until I went back to re-read it. Christ man is is so freaking hard to accept that you're wrong and change your thinking that you have to nitpick at how long I took to see your post and respond to it? holy shit. THAT should tel you how off base you're being, you're fucking obsesseive.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

if you are alive tonight then I'd assume you are the fake seer (or a wolf role) as the wolves would have scanned you w/ the scorcer to find out the truth on night 1 or 2 and if you were the true seer you'd be dead by this point.

yeah, good point about the sorcerer.

[PackerFanatic]

If Alan ISN'T the duke (which I still think he is), then how would his vote have resulted in a no lynch day 1?

[SnDvls]

St. C - question. Does the scorcer have to choose what they are scanning for?

i.e. if they said scan Lathum as the cultist, but he's the seer they would only get a result that said he's not the cultist.

thanks

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

And your making far too much out of the fact that I wasn't at the machine and COULDN't have jumped on it until I went back to re-read it. Christ man is is so freaking hard to accept that you're wrong and change your thinking that you have to nitpick at how long I took to see your post and respond to it? holy shit. THAT should tel you how off base you're being, you're fucking obsesseive.

RETRO-RENDER!!!