The Stock Market thread

[Hammer]

Originally Posted by Arles

My problem with Tesla is their management tends to over-promise and under-deliver. .

I agree on this. But they are making $10k every car they produce roughly. Growing 50% year on year. That's all I am interested in.

Elon is a tool, yet the reason Tesla don't need to advertise IMO.

[Hammer]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Having lived in both countries, my own personal view is that the countries are a lot more different than people think despite a) the ostensible common language (even that has a lot of differences), b) the seismic shifts brought about by Reagan and Thatcher at the same time, and c) the close diplomatic/geopolitical ties.

I would be interested in what you see as the main differences?

I will take a punt.

It is easier to be wealthy in the U.S., but also easier to fail. More rich and poor, while in the U.K. more in the "comfortable" zone in between.

We prop up the poor here, and tax those who are doing well, harder. In the U.S. you tend to live or die off your own production.

I think you guys work harder than us. We have 28 days paid holiday per year as a legal entitlement.

Every employer legally has to pay in to a pension here. Plus the NHS. I guess again there is that agenda to keep up a basic standard of living for everyone.

Plus I guess the gun thing. Even the police don't carry guns. Just isn't a thing here and nobody needs one. Outside of the specialist fast response armed units which are hardly ever called upon.

We probably walk a lot more here too as everything is closer together. Walk to the shops and for fun for that matter.

[Edward64]

Nice week! 2-3% returns last week even with the horrible Fri. Next week will be big.

The MAGA tech companies are reporting financials

The two largest U.S. companies — Microsoft and Apple — report Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Google parent Alphabet releases results Tuesday, and Amazon reports Thursday. Meta Platforms, formerly Facebook, reports Wednesday. In all, more than a third of the S&P 500 companies are reporting.

Fed meeting

The run-up to the Fed’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday has already proven to be dramatic, with traders at one point convinced a full point rate hike was coming. But Fed officials pushed back on that view, and economists widely expect a second three-quarter point hike to follow the one last month

GDP report

second-quarter GDP, expected to be negative by many forecasters. A contraction would be the second in a row on top of the 1.6% decline in the first quarter. Two negative quarters in a row, when confirming declines in other data, is viewed as the sign of a recession
:
however, that would not mean an official recession would be declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which considers a number of factors.

[flere-imsaho]

@Hammer, Edward, Arles - thanks for the contributions re: Tesla. I can agree (esp. w/Hammer) that they still seem in a strong position for the near-term, but unless Musk stops fucking around, eventually they'll lose that first mover advantage and be just another auto maker.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Hammer

I would be interested in what you see as the main differences?

You definitely got a bunch of them.

It is easier to be wealthy in the U.S., but also easier to fail. More rich and poor, while in the U.K. more in the "comfortable" zone in between.

Agreed, though "easier" is still a relative term.

We prop up the poor here, and tax those who are doing well, harder. In the U.S. you tend to live or die off your own production.

Agreed, though the UK also "props up" the middle class in certain ways (e.g. UHC) that are a point of precariousness for the US middle class. Even a well-compensated person losing their job & thus health insurance in the U.S. can very easily risk financial ruin & bankruptcy in a way that's simply not possible in the UK.

In addition, the US tax regime really punishes the mid-to-upper wage-earning class until they can graduate to a lot of income coming from lower-taxed sources than wages, at which point they become some of lowest-taxed people (from a marginal rate perspective) in the country. In the UK the "punishment" pretty much continues all the way up though there are, of course, ways to escape that (e.g. offshore, but that's available to rich people in the States, too).

I think you guys work harder than us. We have 28 days paid holiday per year as a legal entitlement.

Honestly, I always second-guess this, and I've worked with worldwide co-workers for 10+ years now, including European colleagues who take half the summer off.

At the white collar level, American work culture has such a fetish for availability, that there's an impression of working huge hours when in reality my American colleagues fuck around at work a lot more than my European ones, who are all business when they're in the office, and completely offline when they're not.

At the blue collar/service level, in the U.S. there's no real social safety net of note, so yes, they're working a ton of hours to make ends meet, while in the UK you still have some supports (though less so with every year post-Thatcher) to address this.

Every employer legally has to pay in to a pension here. Plus the NHS. I guess again there is that agenda to keep up a basic standard of living for everyone.

Plus I guess the gun thing. Even the police don't carry guns. Just isn't a thing here and nobody needs one. Outside of the specialist fast response armed units which are hardly ever called upon.

This is a huge topic and I'll only address is briefly due to time constraints. Europeans, including the UK, have always believed in the social contract, and Americans generally, have not. When Europeans, including the UK, replaced monarchy with more representative forms of governance, it was an "in place" replacement. "Their" government. Working for them. There's still a much greater feeling in Europe that government can and should work for you, and you can see this in the politics.

The US replaced a foreign monarch with a political system designed to maximize individual liberty. The country was founded on the idea of "rugged individualism". The social contract barely existed, and barely exists today. This is neatly encapsulated in Reagan's "the government is not the solution, it is the problem" paraphrased quote.

People often comment how Americans are so quick to band together in moments of crisis and do amazing things. And they do. But this is out of that individualist/heroism background, not the social contract. Because immediately after, they'll go back to voting for measures that will fuck the poor.

Lastly, I'll note that when I lived in the UK, most folks I knew were trying to accomplish a "comfortable life" for themselves. They didn't want to be rich, they didn't want to be famous, they didn't need to be spectacular. They just wanted to be comfortable and contribute in their small way to society.

In the US it's all about success. How do I succeed? How do I get more? How can I get sufficiently rich that I don't have to worry about anything (literally our entire retirement industry is based around this question)? And that's not even including the large class of reckless entrepreneurs (more lately, influencers) looking to get rich at any cost.

We probably walk a lot more here too as everything is closer together. Walk to the shops and for fun for that matter.

On top of that, it shouldn't be understated how isolating car culture is in the US. When you're forced to walk or take public transportation for most things, you're forced to interact with other people and develop either tolerance or tolerating mechanisms. It's much, much easier in the States, either due to the car or the comparatively low density, to insulate yourself from people with whom you don't want to interact.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Arles

Some are even talking 100 bps in financial blogs. I don’t get the 100 bps idea. Gas prices down for 27 days straight. Mortgage rates down from 6.5 in June to the 5s now. Housing prices are down in July and retail with record inventory levels. What is the reasoning that inflation will be worse in July than June?

I think the answer is the Fed does not want to take foot off the pedal too soon. They want to be "sure" that inflation is tamed.

The good news is current articles I've read says 1 basis pt is probably off the table and it'll probably be .75.

Fed to Inflict More Pain on Economy as It Readies Big Rate Hike

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers doubts that’s how it will play out.

“My instinct is that you’d not see rates cut as soon as people think,” the Harvard University professor and paid Bloomberg Television contributor said.

“The Fed has to be careful. If you look at the history of the 60’s and 70’s, there were moments when monetary policy eased a bit and things didn’t tend to work out so well,” he added, referring to episodes where the Fed loosened credit before stamping out inflation.

Instead of cutting rates, the Fed will likely raise them to 5% or higher next year to try to bring price pressures to heel, Dreyfus and Mellon chief economist Vincent Reinhart said. That will help precipitate a contraction that increases unemployment to about 6%, from 3.6% now, but leaves inflation above 3%, the central bank veteran said.

Not sure I understand the below. But from what I've read, recession is better than runaway inflation so no problems if the Fed is over zealous.

Policy makers have little choice but to push rates higher because they can’t afford to allow inflation expectations to escalate, ex-Fed Governor Laurence Meyer said. If that happened, the battle to contain inflation would be lost because companies and workers would begin to act in ways that would push prices ever higher

[Arles]

I think a lot of the supply chain issues that caused the initial spike in Q4 have been ironed out. So, we are left mostly with commodities, energy and housing. The raising of the rates have hammered mortgage rates and that has helped cool housing prices. It's also clear that the non-Russia war aspect to energy/commodities is also starting to subside. Going over 75 bps would be fairly reckless at this point (and probably lead to a rate cut in 6-9 months).

You have to think a vast majority of the inflation we are feeling is due to the Russia war, oil prices, tariffs/boycotts and food/commodity shortages. None of this is impacted by the fed raising rates. Going over 0.75 would be like giving someone with the Flu 3 straight cycles of antibiotics.

[Arles]

Don't also forget how many big hedge fund managers and market makers have been prepping for a recession for 4-5 months with shorts/puts on the market for the fall. You also have the banks hoping for higher rates. If the fed steps off the interest rate pedal, all that planning may be for not. You will be able to tell all the net-short financial people if the rate decision ends up being only 75 bps...

[albionmoonlight]

It's uncharted waters. The pandemic and Russian turmoil would be hard-to-model events on their own. Put together? I'm glad I don't have to try and figure all this out.

My guess is that the go .75 but if they don't, they are more likely to go 1 than .5

We're a country founded by Puritans, and when you strip away everything else, there's still a bit of "more suffering is good" motivating all of our policy.

[Edward64]

Bad day because of Walmart.

Google & Microsoft have reported missing on earnings & revenue. Microsoft is up 5% because of "rosy guidance". WTF. Maybe it was already priced in and it's really the future projections the market is interested in.

Nasdaq futures is up 1.4%+ but not sure I believe it'll hold through tomorrow. Com'on Apple, save the day (or week).

[NobodyHere]

Looks like they chose the .75 rate and the markets (including bitcoin) seem to love it.

[albionmoonlight]

I follow too many left-wingers, so I am getting a lot of "This is designed to fuck over the working class and send us into recession to benefit the investor class!" takes.

But the less partisan people I follow seem to generally agree that this was (1) expected, (2) refreshingly boring, and (3) the right move.

So I'll go with that interpretation.

I do wish that Congress was less dysfunctional so that we had more than just the Fed's tools to try and lessen inflation while not pushing us into recession.

[BYU 14]

I think it is 100% the right move

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I follow too many left-wingers, so I am getting a lot of "This is designed to fuck over the working class and send us into recession to benefit the investor class!" takes.

It's not really a take. Powell outright said the goal was to drive down wages.

[sterlingice]

The wages that haven't kept up with inflation now or for the last 40 years

SI

[Edward64]

What a fantastic day.

Still don't understand why the markets rallied so much but not going to complain. Some profit taking tomorrow and Meta reported not so great. I'm still hoping they can pull off a commercially successfully VR experience in the next 4-5 years.

Apple's earnings tomorrow. Would be nice if they have great earnings.

[Edward64]

I'm voting to call it a recession.

The committee has some months to make a formal declaration either way so they have benefit of another 2-3 months (?) to gauge the direction.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/gdp-q2-.html

The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.

Gross domestic product fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate. That follows a 1.6% decline in the first quarter and was worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 0.3%.

Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.

But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.

“We’re not in recession, but it’s clear the economy’s growth is slowing,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The economy is close to stall speed, moving forward but barely

[Hammer]

Sold another big chunk of Tesla today at $842. I think there is a real good chance China locks down again. On the news today I heard they locked a whole city down for 4 cases. I can't see them keeping clear this winter. Bitcoin now become my largest holding, 11% of my portfolio, with Tesla at no.2. Will unload more Tesla should it go up further.

[Edward64]

Been a great week so far. Apple is the anchor to close out the 400m relay this week.

Apple reported fiscal third-quarter earnings on Thursday that beat Wall Street expectations for sales and profit but showed slowing growth for the iPhone maker.

Apple did not provide formal guidance for the quarter.

“In terms of an outlook in the aggregate, we expect revenue to accelerate in the September quarter despite seeing some pockets of softness,” Apple CEO Tim Cook told CNBC’s Steve Kovach.
:
Apple stock rose over 3% in extended trading.

[Arles]

Amazon is up 11% today too. We are in a recession, but it may be the mildest one in history. Unemployment is still under 4%, over 70% of companies are reporting better than expected earnings with many seeing high revenue growth and most of the "layoffs" are basically hiring freezes in the big companies.

Throw in inflation and this may be one of the oddest economies we have ever seen.

[sterlingice]

Corporate profits, generally, seem to be doing just fine. The companies are just keeping more and more of the money, squeezing more out of customers as there's less competition, and then blaming it on inflation while also not raising wages.

SI

[Arles]

I'm not sure where "less competition" comes from. We saved significant money in my day job by switching network security companies (Cisco to Crowdstrike), AI analytics groups (from Alteryx to Oracle), phone/network provider, workflow software and more. I can't remember a time where there has been more competition in corporate software, retail, infrastructure options, TV watching options and even smaller services like meal prep. Is there one consumer area that has less competition than there was 20 years ago? You can even go on places like Etsy or Pinterest for custom clothing/decoration that used to be super expensive.

[Flasch186]

But prices up (inflation) yet the corporations are profiting more

All while crying in PR and on TV

Btw I’m fine with it being one way or the other but not both. Both is just hypocrisy and capitalism the American way which actually isn’t capitalism at all


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[Arles]

being mad at corporations for angling for more welfare is like being mad a defense attorney who agrees to represent a known murderer. It's what they get paid to do.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Arles

I'm not sure where "less competition" comes from. We saved significant money in my day job by switching network security companies (Cisco to Crowdstrike), AI analytics groups (from Alteryx to Oracle), phone/network provider, workflow software and more. I can't remember a time where there has been more competition in corporate software, retail, infrastructure options, TV watching options and even smaller services like meal prep. Is there one consumer area that has less competition than there was 20 years ago? You can even go on places like Etsy or Pinterest for custom clothing/decoration that used to be super expensive.

Perhaps for some of the more specialty services and goods like you're talking about. But not for a lot of the general goods that most people rely on.

In the last 20 years?

We went from having tons of local ISPs in the height of the dot com boom to exclusivity contracts and cartel-like behavior where companies have traded territories so that almost every customer in every major metro area has 1 legacy cable provider and 1 legacy telecom provider, giving the illusion of choice but are almost always priced the same.

Mobile phones used to have a variety of everything from Palm to BlackBerry to WebOs to Windows in the 00s but now 99% of all phones are either in the Apple or Google ecosystem. Similarly, there are now only 3 nationwide carriers: Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile which have eaten everyone else including Sprint, Alltel, Nextel, US Cellular (still exists but has divested most of its markets), etc. Yes, there are resellers like Cricket but they're just paying one of those three carriers for networks so they're the ones setting the prices for those, as well. Apple and Samsung sell 80% of the smartphones in the US.

Travel has hugely consolidated: Hotels, airlines, and rental cars.

• Your airport rental counter at the airport looks like there are 10 companies but 3 companies own all of them: Avis (Budget, Payless, Zipcar), Enterprise (Alamo and National), and Hertz (Dollar and Thrifty). That's why you see so little competiton between prices.
• Hilton bought up DoubleTree, Embassy Suites, Hampton, and Homewood in 1999. In the last 10 years, Wyndham bought La Quinta, and Marriott bought Starwood to make the world's largest hotel chain.
• Airlines (404 - Page not found | Airlines For America American bought TWA and then US Airways who bought America West, United bought Continental, Southwest bought AirTrain, and Spirit is buying Frontier. The first couple were buying up the last of the legacy airlines while the later are consolidation of the few smaller airlines that were putting price pressure on the legacy airlines.

Book publishing? Access Denied
There's a "big five" in publishing and the DoJ is suing to prevent it from becoming a Big Four. Can you get a book self-published now in the internet age much easier than before? Yes! Can you market it, get shelf space, or get it noticed on Amazon? Not without one of them.

The Most Notable Oligopolies in the US
Music and media company ownership is similar. Is it easier than ever to make a movie or album? Yes. Are the media outlets that control most of the access to those markets shrinking? Also, yes.

One could argue "weaker or bad companies die and are bought up by stronger ones". But it's not like we're seeing new, big competitors rise up in most of the industries. Instead, it's just a whittling down of old guard and purchasing of any upstarts to prevent real new competition. The long and short is that the overwhelming majority of these services are being delivered by fewer and fewer competitors so prices are just going up.

SI

[Arles]

I don't think cell phones are a worse deal now than when we had flip phones and the blackberry. Many people paid for a certain number of minutes/texts for atleast $50 a month. I remember being proud of the deal I had for a phone in the early 2000s where I paid $20 month and 0.05 a minute when I used it. I avoided calling on it like the plague, still paid $20-25 a month, had my home phone for another $30 and that included no internet. Now, I can get unlimited talk/text, high speed internet, use my phone as a hotspot for my laptop when I travel and cheap international daily rates - all for about $50 for my line on a family plan with Verizon (plus I get ESPN+, Disney+ and Hulu included) with no need for a home line. I also didn't need to pay a huge price for my latest iphone, I got it for free for trading in a prior version on a special.

Hotels have certainly consolidated, but we now have AirBnB - which is like adding hundreds of new hotel companies. For airlines, there are fewer companies but I don't think the cost is any higher. The average plane ticket in 2000 was $325 (or around $500 after adjusting for inflation). The last average ticket price reported was around $300 now.

For books and media, YouTube and Amazon have completely shifted the paradigm. I can make a short movie on YouTube, Tik Tok or instagram for basically free that reaches millions. I could self publish a book tomorrow if I had good content for a fraction of the cost 20 years ago and I would keep a vast majority of the revenue. Even for gaming, when I started writing games the "dream" was making $2-3 a sale on a $25 game at Best Buy. Now most developers get 50-70%.

[Hammer]

I am expecting a further sting in the tail. Sold more Tesla at $875 and taking every penny of profit on Bitcoin while keeping the original position intact.

Did my buying when panic was the theme, now it seems overly optimistic to me, so building a cash position.

[Arles]

I have a small growth portfolio that is more long term (but I did sell my Tesla), but my main portfolio only includes stocks with a nice dividend. Dividend stocks (not gold or bitcoin) is the best hedge against inflation IMO

[Edward64]

Sweet, sweet July.

Be great for a repeat in Aug but I'll be happy for steady gains to bring us back to even by end of year.

U.S. stocks rallied Friday to cap a three-day winning streak and finish off the best month for the S&P 500 since November 2020.

On Friday, the S&P 500 gained 1.4%, the Dow gained 1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 1.9%.

Friday's close also marked the final trading day of the month, with the benchmark S&P rising 9.2% during July while the Nasdaq gained 13% during the month. This rally marked the Nasdaq's biggest monthly gain since July 2020.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Arles

I have a small growth portfolio that is more long term (but I did sell my Tesla), but my main portfolio only includes stocks with a nice dividend. Dividend stocks (not gold or bitcoin) is the best hedge against inflation IMO

I have a fair amount in VDIGX and SCHD (quality dividends vs high paying dividends).

[Edward64]

Better buy your Halloween candy early this year.

This Halloween may bring more tricks than treats, with candy maker Hershey warning on Thursday that it won't be able to meet consumer demand for the October 31 holiday.

CEO Michele Buck warned about the potential shortfall on the company's second-quarter earnings call, noting that while seasonal consumer demand remains high, "We will not be able to fully meet consumer demand due to capacity constraints."

That means Halloween favorites such as Reese's Peanut Butter Cups, Kit Kat, Mr. Goodbar and Almond Joy may not be as plentiful this Halloween as in previous years

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Sweet, sweet July.

Be great for a repeat in Aug but I'll be happy for steady gains to bring us back to even by end of year.

Futures are looking good at the moment.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Futures are looking good at the moment.

FWIW I've found it best to wait till Sun 7pm+ ET to look at weekend futures.

I'm thinking there'll be some profit taking next week. And with earnings season over, folks will be speculating about Fed rates, inflation, and odds of soft landing.

[Edward64]

Interesting battle for the definition of "Recession".

Wikipedia suspends edits to its 'recession' page : NPR

Wikipedia has frozen edits to its page for "recession," halting a frenzy of changes to the entry after the Biden administration insisted that the U.S. economy has not entered a economic downturn.

The website's definition of recession was altered dozens of times over the course of 24 hours, in an apparent reaction to the White House's resistance to calling the current economy a recession

A user named "Soibangla," many of whose recent edits to the page were dooductory paragraphs on Tuesday, adding the line: "There is no global consensus on the definition of a recession."

It previously read: "While national definitions vary, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's [real gross domestic product] is commonly used as a practical definition of a recession."

That language was more similar to its current iteration, a version that is currently locked on Wikipedia: "Although the definition of a recession varies between different countries and scholars, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real gross domestic product (real GDP) is commonly used as a practical definition of a recession

[Edward64]

Glad I got out of all ARK stuff.

Why is Cathie Wood still in the news?

Ark Invest Falters After Earnings Implosion From Roku and Teladoc Stocks

The Ark Disruptive Innovation ETF, spearheaded by Ark Invest's Cathie Wood, fell more than 4% this week while the Nasdaq 100 surged nearly 4%. The ETF is down more than 50% year-to-date and is off more than 70% from its record high.

The ongoing divergence in performance between ARK and the broader market was originally sparked by a risk-off environment and rising interest rates, but the performance difference has since been exacerbated by strong earnings results from mega-cap tech giants that Ark doesn't own, combined with poor earnings results from the unprofitable growth stocks it does own

[Edward64]

FWIW, the Fed is focused primarily on combatting inflation and not recession.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/31/are-...tion-data.html

If you’re debating whether or not the U.S. is in a recession, you’re asking the wrong question, according to a top Federal Reserve official.

“Whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn’t change my analysis,” Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday. “I’m focused on the inflation data. I’m focused on the wage data. And so far, inflation continues to surprise us to the upside. Wages continue to grow.”

Last month, U.S. inflation jumped to a four-decade record high, rising 9.1% from a year ago. At the same time, the labor market remained strong: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 372,000 last month, alongside a low national unemployment rate of 3.6%.

On Thursday, new Labor Department data showed signs of a job market cooldown, with initial jobless claims hitting their highest level since mid-November. Still, Kashkari said, the labor market is “very, very strong.”

“Typically, recessions demonstrate high job losses, high unemployment, those are terrible for American families. And we’re not seeing anything like that,” he said.

The problem, Kashkari said, is that even in a strong job market, inflation is outpacing wage growth — giving many Americans a functional “wage cut” as living costs increase nationwide. Solving that problem by reducing inflation is the Federal Reserve’s top goal right now, he added.

[sterlingice]

Once again, it's so weird - corporate profit season has been very good yet wages aren't going up. Strange that. I'm sure squeezing interest rates to cut jobs will help (not that interest rates shouldn't have been raised 5 years ago)!

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Finally some movement away from inflation?

RBOB gasoline plunge below $3.
A penny or two from the lowest since March 16 $RB_F $UGA

That would imply a national retail avg under $4 later this month. pic.twitter.com/dNxW4jPQkR

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) August 1, 2022

ISM Manufacturing Prices in the United States decreased to 60 points in July from 78.50 points in June of 2022. https://t.co/8hIPFXBjCg pic.twitter.com/QnbDULUkL5

— Trading Economics (@tEconomics) August 1, 2022

[Hammer]

Sold more Tesla at $928 today. That is 70% of my holding gone now. I will be crushed if it keeps going up. But it is such a volatile asset, just feel I need to cash in while the going is good. That zero covid policy in China makes me nervous. Thinking I will leave Tesla alone until spring 2023 even if it dips again.

[GrantDawg]

Financial stuff is do weird. Mortgage rates have started dropping BECUASE the Fed increased interest rates? I read the reason (people rushing to buy bonds because of recession fears driving down rates), but still that seemed weird.

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[Arles]

I think rates overshot when they fed switched to 0.75% in June. That put mortgage rates over 6.2% for the 30-year and the market has slowed them back down into the 5s.

[Ksyrup]

If I needed to move right now or had a "can't say no" sale of my current house and/or purchase opportunity, I'm not sure I could wrap my head around a mortgage rate over 5%.

Which of course is silly because rates even 15 years ago were higher on average. But there's something deflating about how much more you have to spend now for the same damn principal amount than the last time you got a mortgage or refinanced it.

[PilotMan]

The housing market seems to be coming to a screeching halt right now. I've been researching very specific house types in the DC/VA/MD area and in the span of a few weeks it's gone from a handful of homes that meet my requirements across the area, to dozens as fewer homes leave quickly. It's a higher end home price market, but signs are there.

[Flasch186]

We are seeing a freeze at the top end

But it’s still on fire at the middle and below for homes in good condition

I expect a thaw to normalcy when people realize rates are stable around 5-5.5

With more inventory


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[Edward64]

My first house had a 30-year mortgage of about 6.75%.

The rate was much lower on our second house. And we refinanced after that.

[BYU 14]

Ours finally fell under 500K again, down 8K in the last 30 days.

[GrantDawg]

Mine is down .02%. I just noticed they have a history section on Zillow. By that my house has doubled in price in 3 years, where it had only gone up by 15% in the previous 18.

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[Edward64]

My zillow house price has dropped about 3.5% from it's high. It's painful to see but in big scheme to things, nothing compared to the meteoric price rise in the past 2-3 years. So can't complain (yet).

[Edward64]

Okay, you had 2 days of profit taking. Get we get back to the regularly scheduled (upward trending) program now?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Okay, you had 2 days of profit taking. Get we get back to the regularly scheduled (upward trending) program now?

Nice.

NASDAQ is up about 20% from its lows. Still a long ways to go but not complaining. Hoping for a nice, sustained, steady, 6+ year bull market.