Werewolf CXXV - Vegas, Baby - VILLAGERS WIN

[Zinto]

I am going to go ahead and vote for nightfall regardless of what happens from here on out.

Vote Nightfall

[JAG]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

my next question, how will you go about finding the remaining mafia member? Since I am assuming my tail is grass.

Most important to me is securing the NK. And then reexamining stuff.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by JAG

Most important to me is securing the NK. And then reexamining stuff.

well good luck getting the night kill.

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 1502

ntndeacon (4) - passacaglia 1439, JAG 1455, tyketime 1460, Zinto 1477
zinto (3) - The jackal 1443, ntndeacon 1461, chief rum 1471

nightfall - pass, jackal, JAG, tyketime, zinto

[ntndeacon]

It is time for me to skedaddle. I do believe that it is more likely that ZInto is the last wolf over tyke. I hope everyone but the wolf had me as the bet for today. and Ihope everyone had their bids in

[ntndeacon]

Vote nightfall

[ntndeacon]

Good luck to the village!

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 1507

ntndeacon (4) - passacaglia 1439, JAG 1455, tyketime 1460, Zinto 1477
zinto (3) - The jackal 1443, ntndeacon 1461, chief rum 1471

nightfall - pass, jackal, JAG, tyketime, zinto, ntndeacon

[JAG]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

So you are saying that I bought Lefty for 1 dollar (I would have had to as the last wolf) and then used it on who?
If anyone else has be robbed today let us know.

If you're a wolf and used it on someone else, everyone would question why you weren't robbed since it was very likely you would've been the only bet winner yesterday and would have a big pile to target.

Of course, if you aren't a wolf, it's also why you would be targeted, but the point being you couldn't use it on someone else without drawing suspicion to yourself, and you wouldn't really need it with the money you just won. To me, I can't get past the coincidental bets and the change to thieving, moreso than the argument I could make for anyone else.

[Chief Rum]

I really don't think ntn is a wolf. But I'm not going to hold things up if everyone else is convinced.

VOTE NIGHTFALL

[Autumn]

Final Vote Count

]ntndeacon (4) - passacaglia 1439, JAG 1455, tyketime 1460, Zinto 1477
zinto (3) - The jackal 1443, ntndeacon 1461, chief rum 1471

nightfall - pass, jackal, JAG, tyketime, zinto, ntndeacon, chief rum

[Autumn]

Of course you guys waited until I'm about to leave.

[Autumn]

The day is tense, the vote tight, and people are eager to move on. The end of this disastrous week is close and people want to rid the city of the menace of the mob. The vote is called early, before the sun sets. People are done discussing, they want vengeance. And justice.

NTNdeacon's name is called out after the votes are counted. He is handcuffed and dragged away. The rest glance at each other, waiting. Can they breathe a sigh of relief now?

The police report on the evening news details NTNdeacon's arrest. But the FBI spokesman says he doesn't think he has a case to stand on. It appears NTNdeacon was a regular Resident of Vegas.

[Autumn]

Night 7 has begun. Place your bets for Day 7.

The going rate for services today was:

Tank Wallace - $0
Mario Juarez - $4,500
Crazy Legs - $8,000

If I get all bets and night orders in I can process an early dawn if people would like. But I'll be out for a couple hours now.

[JAG]

Bah...

Alright, presumably Tyke won the NK?

[JAG]

And that 1001 thing is a ridiculous coincidence.

[The Jackal]

It didn't have to be Tyke, it could've been a number of us. Will be interested to see who goes down, and very upset that no one bid on Tank. I was going to, but didn't want to split my money, but I was nowhere close to winning a bid.

[JAG]

Yeah, I don't think I have anything else I want to say until after the night phase.

[Autumn]

All right, all PMs are now out. I will make night deadline, for bets and orders, 9 p.m. tomorrow. If I get all of the bets and orders I will go ahead and process it though.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by JAG

Yeah, I don't think I have anything else I want to say until after the night phase.

Agreed!

[ntndeacon]

I said it before and I will say it again.........................................Go Villagers!

[Autumn]

The morning news is just as depressing as ever. Finding bloody footprints in the hotel hallway, police followed them to discover the body of Passacaglia, stuffed into a broom closet. He did not pass away peacefully.

Passacaglia was a Resident of Vegas.

Day 8 has begun. It will end 9 p.m. on Monday. You may bid on the following services today:

Tank Wallace, Body Guard.
Mario Juarez, Private Investigator
"Crazy Legs" Louie, hitman

[JAG]

Anyone get the PI?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

Anyone get the PI?

I actually figured the wolf bought the PI. He got a ton of money, apparently, stealing from ntndeacon.

I hope I am wrong, of course. I bid for the PI, but for the first time in a while, I was outbid.

[tyketime]

Well that sucks! I was outbid for Crazy Legs. I did cash out on Night 6, and I bid it all. If ntndeacon was telling the truth about being robbed (and there's obviously no reason for us to think otherwise at this point), I didn't have enough.

I was at least hoping one of you won Mario so we could put this game to rest in this day cycle. But I'm starting to get a bad feeling about this.

[The Jackal]

I didn't have enough to win Mario, unfortunately. Pass was a strange NK target. I would've thought CR was the best choice. So we've five people left? Two shots at this I suppose. Either it's zinto and he's played a very good utr game, it's tyke and he lied about his role being a villager role, or it's JAG and he's been setting this up ever since his CR clear. Or it's me, but I know that's not the case. I'm still out of town until late tomorrow but as long as my phone doesn't completely die (forgot my charger), I should be able to check in

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Cougar & Zinto were the next two I was looking at. But seems like we've found some evidence that Cougar hasn't come in to dispute. I'm willing to go ahead and make my vote as well:

VOTE COUGARFREAK

Well, with four of us already checking in, there's one left. Zinto's been the other one on my radar. I've bet him the last two days but obviously haven't cashed. I don't think I've been the first in on a lynch vote, but am ready to go ahead and get the ball rolling on this one:

VOTE: ZINTO

[tyketime]

I will also point out one other "interesting" fact. I realize it's the weekend, and so this certainly isn't definitive proof of anything. But I noticed a pattern over the last few night cycles. When the actual time came around, most of us were logged in to see what had happened. Last night, there were two of us logged in (and 0 guests) around 9pm: Jackal and myself. I also checked back in around 10 pm, and the two of us were again the only ones around. I almost posted something then to make note of it, but didn't want to say anything until Autumn confirmed the night actions and daylight broke. Again, by no means proof of anything, but with so few of us left, it certainly was noteworthy.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by tyketime

I will also point out one other "interesting" fact. I realize it's the weekend, and so this certainly isn't definitive proof of anything. But I noticed a pattern over the last few night cycles. When the actual time came around, most of us were logged in to see what had happened. Last night, there were two of us logged in (and 0 guests) around 9pm: Jackal and myself. I also checked back in around 10 pm, and the two of us were again the only ones around. I almost posted something then to make note of it, but didn't want to say anything until Autumn confirmed the night actions and daylight broke. Again, by no means proof of anything, but with so few of us left, it certainly was noteworthy.

you may have noticed a couple of times people have said "this might be a bit Meta", or something to that effect....basically what we were talking about was using some sort of external input to decide who to vote for, instead of just things that happen in the game.

checking to see who is in the thread at certain times of day, or who might be in PMs would fall into this category, and while not in the same category as editing posts or quoting PMs, it is generally frowned upon to make a vote on Metagame piece of information.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by saldana

you may have noticed a couple of times people have said "this might be a bit Meta", or something to that effect....basically what we were talking about was using some sort of external input to decide who to vote for, instead of just things that happen in the game.

checking to see who is in the thread at certain times of day, or who might be in PMs would fall into this category, and while not in the same category as editing posts or quoting PMs, it is generally frowned upon to make a vote on Metagame piece of information.

Well I will only say that my vote is definitely NOT based on that fact. Yesterday, we were faced with one of two choices. And since ntndeacon was in fact a Villager, that left me with one conclusion - and thus the vote for Zinto.

Now as for me breaking another rule - I will say that I am sorry. But I have to tell ya - if you want new players to play the game, you HAVE to help us out by explaining all of the rules. I don't want to sound like a broken record (and believe me that my apology is sincere!). There was an earlier post that made mention/fun of the number of Guests that showed up at the bewitching hour.

I interpreted "Meta" to mean what has happened in previous games. And as a new player, any of that past history would be completely outside my knowledge.

But I thank you for pointing that out. I will obviously NOT edit my previous post, but hope the damage I have caused is minimal. AUTUMN - If this is an egregious error, you can post here or PM me, and with your approval I will delete the offending thread before anyone else reads it. Or you can boot me from the game. While not thrilled with that idea, I don't want in any way to have this end in controversial fashion. I have had a blast, and hope that I have not ruined it for the rest of the players.

[Autumn]

Don't worry about it Tyke. If you read back in previous games you'll see this discussion come up a lot. There's not a clear line about what's appropriate in metagaming or not. Discussion of who might have been in thread during a deadline is sometimes appropriate, sometimes makes people uncomfortable, depends on the context. I'll be glad to give you more context around metagaming in a PM for future reference.

As almost always comes up in those discussions, though, the "currently active users" listing is not terribly reliable. Some people, like myself, often leave the thread open, and may even have it set to automatically refresh, yet be nowhere near the computer. So it's not particularly useful in general.

Saying something like "I saw Autumn in thread around deadline but he didn't post," is fairly common, I think, to take one example. You don't need to worry about it, Saldana's just letting you in on the Werewolf culture, which can sometimes frown on that.

[tyketime]

Thanks Autumn. I will say one other thing, and then I'm off of it and we can get back to wrapping this game up with the lynching of the last wolf.

Near the bottom of page 25, Pass makes mention of me being "logged in and how was I doing bro". This all played into my reveal of my Villager role with the special investment ability. He had been asking a few of us to explain our money balance. I was trying to avoid the whole scenario for as long as I could, but felt that when he called me out - I couldn't run around scared much longer. So in my defense, there was already precedent set in this specific game.

Anyways, again I hope there are no hard feelings...

[saldana]

Tyke, I wasn't trying to reprimand you, and I sincerely apologize if you felt like I was...I was just trying to do exactly what you said we needed to do,which is fill all you guys in on the rules, both written and unwritten...full blown flame wars have been fought over stuff like who was in the thread when,and I was just trying to make you aware...you didn't do anything wrong, sorry again if you thought otherwise

[JAG]

Originally Posted by tyketime

But I have to tell ya - if you want new players to play the game, you HAVE to help us out by explaining all of the rules.

FYI, I think this is mentioned in the stickied Werewolf Basics (New Players Look Here) post.

I'm interested to hear from Zinto. CR and Jackal have been pretty clear with where they are with things throughout the game and tyke has a vote on him already.

[Zinto]

Pretty much now I am the only person on anyone's radar at this point. I will say this against Tyke is I went back through and he is the only person without a vote on any of the two other Lupino family members so even if I go down today remember that for tomorrow.

[JAG]

Well, I'm looking at tyke and Zinto, and my strong suspicion is if we lynch the two of them over the next couple days then we'll win (and if not, take a bow Jackal), but I'd rather get it right today. Both have been UTR, both were D1 Lathum voters, and neither has been overly involved with clearing players, catching Lupinos, or figuring things out in general.

Tyke:

Argument as villager: Claims a role, of which we already know there were two villager roles in the game and 5/6 wolves have been vanilla. Was accurate with his cash on hand and it was a somewhat unusual amount (exactly 500?) for a wolf to have at that stage. I could see him wanting to hold back a bit with a role like this. Sometimes villagers have bad voting records whereas wolves know where to vote to look good later on.

Argument as wolf: Only uncleared D1 Lathum voter and a bettor as well. He either made up the role or is a wolf with the role (maybe Autumn thought it was a reasonably balanced role for a single wolf to have, I could see it as it would make one family weaker at the start, but stronger at the end). Once it was known we could discover how much money a player had on them, maybe the wolves realized it would be better for Tyke to keep $500 for his alibi. Not a good voting record, D1 Lathum, D2 DV, D3+4 with Lupino members available to vote, he voted elsewhere, and to this point, none of the five wolves voted for a member of their own team (only counting D1-4 which is all I'm looking at).

Zinto:

Argument as villager: Was open with his betting targets D2 and D3 before the village confirmed the NK role allowed the killer to win the victim's money. Votes on Lupino members D3+4, including vote #2 on Crimson Fox D3 when mckerney have a 3-1 lead and two others with 1 vote.

Argument as wolf: Started pulling up voting records at a time that made me wonder why he started doing it now (was he prompted because no one had been doing it and it was his alibi that he voted for Lupinos D3 + D4?)


Am I missing any other useful data points?

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by JAG

Tyke:

Argument as villager: Claims a role, of which we already know there were two villager roles in the game and 5/6 wolves have been vanilla.

While I suppose it would be possible, do you really think Autumn gave a role to only 1 wolf?

Originally Posted by JAG

Was accurate with his cash on hand and it was a somewhat unusual amount (exactly 500?) for a wolf to have at that stage. I could see him wanting to hold back a bit with a role like this..

I finally had/chose to reveal my special ability on the morning of Day 6. So are you saying that as a wolf, I sat on my money as my other two Lupinos were lynched? If I was a wolf, I would certainly have been more desperate than that. Instead, I volunteered my exact amount (which was confirmed by Pass).

Originally Posted by JAG

Sometimes villagers have bad voting records whereas wolves know where to vote to look good later on.

Originally Posted by JAG

Only uncleared D1 Lathum voter and a bettor as well.

I've mentioned a couple of times why I bet on and also voted for Lathum on Day 1. He seemed likely to get votes based on his Night 0 actions. It was my thought that you needed to win money in order to get the services in future days. I had no knowledge that the Killer would get the money of his victim. I had no knowledge of other ways to gain money. I knew the Mafia could pool their money together. So I was clearly going for the easy way to win more money.

Originally Posted by JAG

Once it was known we could discover how much money a player had on them, maybe the wolves realized it would be better for Tyke to keep $500 for his alibi.

Again - I just sit idly by with $500 as the other two Lupinos get picked off? Crimson was lynched Day 3. If I was a Lupino, wouldn't Daddy & I have pooled our money together and done something with it?

Originally Posted by JAG

Not a good voting record, D1 Lathum, D2 DV, D3+4 with Lupino members available to vote, he voted elsewhere, and to this point, none of the five wolves voted for a member of their own team

(only counting D1-4 which is all I'm looking at).

And finally we get to my voting record:

Day 1 I voted Lathum (see explanation above).

Day 2 I voted Darth Vilus (I have copied my reasoning for that below:

Originally Posted by tyketime

Well, since we know there are two families, and assuming as was mentioned above that they can't communicate with each other - I don't think we'd see 3-4 wolves fitting that pattern, right? They wouldn't have the numbers.

But I did analyze the pattern in the voting recap. The last four unvotes and then votes switched target from DV/Lathum tie to a J23 runaway. Three of those votes (mauboy1, Lathum, PackerFanatic) all came

within a seven post grouping. If a couple of them were working together, then they could insure Lathum and/or DV lived to see another day.

(230) mauboy1 unvotes mckerny, votes J23: Darth Vilus 6 Lathum 6 J23 5 Chief Rum 1
(234) Lathum unvotes Darth Vilus, votes J23: J23 6 Lathum 6 Darth Vilus 5 Chief Rum 1
(236) PackerFanatic unvotes Chief Rum, votes J23: J23 7 Lathum 6 Darth Vilus 5
(257) saldana unvotes Lathum, votes J23: J23 8 Lathum 5 Darth Vilus 5

So I'm wondering if one of those two is a wolf...

Day 3 I voted mckerney. Here's a copy of that post:

Originally Posted by tyketime

I'm willing to see whether the trend towards D1 Lathum voters points us towards a wolf.

VOTE: MCKERNEY

So if I was worried about being outted as a wolf, and as a Day 1 Lathum voter myself, would I have pointed the spotlight in my own direction?

Day 4 I kept my vote on mckerney. I saw nothing to change my vote from the previous day. On Day 3, Lupino#1 (CrimsonFox) was lynched. On Day 4, DaddyTorgo (Lupino#2) was lynched. If I was at all worried about how that looked... there was plenty of opportunity for me to switch my vote to one of them to help "cover my tracks". But short of a mistype on Day 2, I have not changed my vote.

Day 5 I voted for mckerney a 3rd time in a row. Turns out I was right, and we finally lynched him.

Day 6 I voted cougarfreak.

Originally Posted by tyketime

Cougar & Zinto were the next two I was looking at. But seems like we've found some evidence that Cougar hasn't come in to dispute. I'm willing to go ahead and make my vote as well:

VOTE COUGARFREAK

Well that one was straightforward.

Day 7 I voted ntndeacon. At that point, it was the coincidental bets that he won that made it appear he was a wolf and had purchased the cunning ability that swayed me from voting zinto.

Day 8 I've voted Zinto. It's either him or TheJackal has made a hell of a play.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Well that sucks! I was outbid for Crazy Legs. I did cash out on Night 6, and I bid it all. If ntndeacon was telling the truth about being robbed (and there's obviously no reason for us to think otherwise at this point), I didn't have enough.

I was at least hoping one of you won Mario so we could put this game to rest in this day cycle. But I'm starting to get a bad feeling about this.

Hey, tyke, help me out, if you could.

If I am reading your posts right, you invested your money ($500 of it anyway) on N2. Each additional night, this doubles. So my math has $1000 after N3, $2000 after N4, $4000 after N5, and $8000 after N6. You say you cahsed out N6--did you get the double investment for N6 or was it essentially N5 was the last double night?

Just trying to wrap my head around the finances.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hey, tyke, help me out, if you could.

If I am reading your posts right, you invested your money ($500 of it anyway) on N2. Each additional night, this doubles. So my math has $1000 after N3, $2000 after N4, $4000 after N5, and $8000 after N6. You say you cahsed out N6--did you get the double investment for N6 or was it essentially N5 was the last double night?

Just trying to wrap my head around the finances.

Since I asked to cash out during my Night 6 actions, it only included the doubling for Nights 3,4,5. So I ended up with a return of $4000. I wish it would have included the additional night, but that would seem to be an overpowered ability. (You invest the full 1000 on Night 1, you could withdraw $16,000 on Night 5 and be in total control of the game).

[The Jackal]

I'll post some more once I get on the train this afternoon. At this point I hope zinto is the last one, otherwise I'm feeling a showdown between me and JAG. I see people saying well if it isn't zinto jackal should take a bow, but JAG and I both have the "clearing a villager" card in our back pocket. I've felt the whole game it would be a smart move for a wolf to purchase and use Mario at some point, and with CR still alive it makes me think just maybe JAG is leaving him be because he has some inherent earned trust. We've both played fairly transparent villager games so it's going to be tough to sort it out if zinto is indeed clean. But I think that's the way we have to go first, as I'd like to hope JAG hasn't been pulling strings behind the scenes the whole time!

[The Jackal]

I'll get into a more in depth review if it's necessary, but JAG has only recently started pinging me and that's mainly because weve struggled with the last wolf. The push on ntn was harder than the evidence allowed for, i thought, even if there was a discrepancy. Anyways, hope I'm blowing smoke for nothing but I wanted to get my thoughts out there in case that's where this is headed. I could see tyke being the wolf, I guess, but the role claim has bought him some trust. For myself I can say I voted pretty liberally for wolves in both families and started the push on the first lupino to go down when I surely didn't need to.

vote zinto

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 1541

zinto (2) -tyketime 1527, the jackal 1541

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'll get into a more in depth review if it's necessary, but JAG has only recently started pinging me and that's mainly because weve struggled with the last wolf. The push on ntn was harder than the evidence allowed for, i thought, even if there was a discrepancy. Anyways, hope I'm blowing smoke for nothing but I wanted to get my thoughts out there in case that's where this is headed. I could see tyke being the wolf, I guess, but the role claim has bought him some trust. For myself I can say I voted pretty liberally for wolves in both families and started the push on the first lupino to go down when I surely didn't need to.

vote zinto

Couldn't you say the same (liberal voting for wolves in both families) about Zinto? Zinto had vote 2 on the Lupino you helped nail at a time when the vote was 3-1-1-1 with Crimson having one of the 1's.

For myself, I'll just say I've done a lot of tangible things for the village throughout the game and been about as open as I could be (sometimes foolishly so). But I can't argue I screwed up the ntn vote.

[The Jackal]

It's true, zinto did have a helpful vote there. Are you thinking tyke is lying because of that evidence? I guess the reasoning I'd spin on zinto for making that vote if he was a wolf comes right back at me, though there's a difference between starting it and adding one for future absolving. And believe me I know you've played a helpful, probing villager this game JAG, that's why it's gonna be hell for me to convince people I'm not the wolf if it comes down to us

[The Jackal]

In fact that vote by zinto makes me lean more towards you, JAG, though I don't know what kind of traction I could pray to get there. More hoping it was a conceived vote by the lupinos (which my phone autocorrects to Kipling?) in combination with zintos vote recaps later to make him look better n

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

In fact that vote by zinto makes me lean more towards you, JAG, though I don't know what kind of traction I could pray to get there. More hoping it was a conceived vote by the lupinos (which my phone autocorrects to Kipling?) in combination with zintos vote recaps later to make him look better n

Well, if you want to go by voting record vs Lupinos, I think I look pretty good there. I had a late D2 vote on DT (I think it tied the vote at 5-5) and the strategy of not voting DV to give the wolves $ proved to be sound aside from voting for a wolf. I voted for DT the day he was lynched as well, and for CF when he was lynched, I believe both votes when things were still in question. Meanwhile Tyke did not vote either DT or CF.

I'm still trying to decide which version of reality I believe more. That Zinto is the wolf and was bold with his voting and information he gave out or that Tyke is the wolf and was the only wolf to have a role, even though you could argue it would unbalance the two families.

[JAG]

Vote Zinto

I remember thinking it seemed suspicious when Zinto brought up voting records when he had been so quiet much of the game. He actually brought it up before we realized that saldana was the last Vampiri and not Lupino (at least I was surprised). Before we knew that, his voting record looked decent but now it looks much better, but a wolf would've known exactly hoe good it appeared at the time. So anyway, it's a bit counter-intuitive for me, but that's where I think I'm going today and hopefully there won't be a tomorrow.

[Zinto]

Well it is looking like it is going to fall more on me being lynched today and hopefully a villager can buy the night kill or it is going to be messy tomorrow. Everyone keeps bringing up why I brought up the voting record but it my limited knowledge of the game it is what is used to find wolves not all the circumstantial evidence we have used this game. I would try to start a run on someone else but I have no clue who could be the last wolf so I will just accept my fate and root for the villagers.

Vote Nightfall

[Chief Rum]

As the only player left without any bit of a true clearing, Zinto seems to be the obvious choice right now. It's disappointing, as I have sneaking suspicion that a wolf did indeed use one of the services to secure a semi-cleared spot (JAG or The Jackal, I am guessing), and that means this Zinto lynch will do us no good.

But as long as Zinto's around, he's a loose end we need to deal with and be certain about.

If he isn't a wolf, we're going to have to do a final showdown tomorrow, with two lynch targets, one presumeably being the wold, being chosen by the third, untargeted remaining player (probably tyketime).

VOTE ZINTO

[JAG]

May as well then.

Vote Nightfall