werewolf LIV! Terror at the country club (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN)

[st.cronin]

Who's left:

2. RenderR - I have him as trusted, with some room for distrust, but not much.
4. Chief Rum - I now trust Chief Rum.
5. St.Cronin - Villager
10. Oliegirl - I trust oliegirl, and have for a while.
11. Mr.DNA - has been pretty much invisible
12. Eaglefan - Probably should be trusted, although I'm still a little fuzzy on the details of what happened yesterday.
13. Passacaglia - High on a lot of people's distrust lists, mostly because he's been quiet. Has he been linked with anybody? I'll have to look at his votes.
17. Raiders Army - Highest trusted player right now.
20. Hoopsguy - I'm wary. I didn't like his trying to coordinate the night actions, that seemed like a plan that would only help the wolves.
21. Arlington Colt - Not sure. I think he should have used or passed the folding table. Not doing so worries me.

With three dead wolves, we should have some outstanding vote data to work through.

[ArlingtonColt]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

PB, the reason the wolves would want to kill Crim is that, outside of you, most of us trust him. So if he is in fact a villager then it is going to be tough to get him voted off - which means you either have to outlast him or night-kill him.

I don't think we are down to end-game with 13 players left - that would imply at least five wolves at this point (including the brutal wolf). I doubt they started with five and the Goth. So it is going to be hard to convince me that we need to consider a Crim vote under that scenario.

To clarify the 5 wolfs comment... I was basing it off of this NOT because I "know" who the wolves are

[EagleFan]

I think I need to switch over to the desktop for the vote research (was on the work laptop while the wife was using our desktop and I hate laptop keyboards/touchpads).

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonColt

To clarify the 5 wolfs comment... I was basing it off of this NOT because I "know" who the wolves are

Just testing your reaction...

We need to get a little better feel from you somehow.

[ArlingtonColt]

You will see from my votes that I have been on wolves all along, the only villager I've had a hand in killing was Mr. Bug and that was just a bad read. I voted for DNA week 1 and he hasn't been declared one way or the other at this point.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, if you suspect me as a wolf then why would I have trumpeted the idea all game long about "go after the Day 1 RPI voters" if both Path and I were wolves? That doesn't seem like my best play.

Why would I have tried to get votes on Path during Day 4 and Day 5? Remember, I could have stuck to the same logic above (RPI votes) and voted you instead, when you were already in a perilous position.

I don't have you as "cleared" at this point, but I'm less likely to push on the "RPI votes" angle now that it has been shown that there was in fact a bad guy there. Could there be two? Maybe, but I don't think that pursuing you for those reasons is a compelling math play anymore.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - I could have voted for you on Day 5 when you were in perilous position. I did end up voting for you on Day 4, although I first tried to convince people to go with Path instead of you or Bug. I'll pull posts if that isn't how you remember it.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, if you suspect me as a wolf then why would I have trumpeted the idea all game long about "go after the Day 1 RPI voters" if both Path and I were wolves? That doesn't seem like my best play.

Why would I have tried to get votes on Path during Day 4 and Day 5? Remember, I could have stuck to the same logic above (RPI votes) and voted you instead, when you were already in a perilous position.

I don't have you as "cleared" at this point, but I'm less likely to push on the "RPI votes" angle now that it has been shown that there was in fact a bad guy there. Could there be two? Maybe, but I don't think that pursuing you for those reasons is a compelling math play anymore.

Day 5 I forgot where you ended up, but day 4 you did take your vote OFF path, with plenty of time to deadline. I do tend to think that you moving your vote off of him actually makes it less likely that you're a wolf.

At any rate, while all of that stuff makes it MORE likely that you're a villager, none of it is really enough for me.

I do think there are better choices than you for today's vote, especially with Rum being cleared.

[hoopsguy]

Day 4 - we had the 9AM deadline and I had to get to work. So I moved it right before I left. I posted my initial vote for Path before going to bed that night, but no one joined me on the vote by the time I woke up in the morning. So I had the choice of leaving the vote there or trying to figure out which of you/Bug was more likely to be a wolf. Given those choices, I thought you were more likely a wolf. I don't believe I played a role in the escalation of either you or Bug directly as candidates, but you did both fall under the "RPI voters" so that probably contributed to the top vote getters that day.

Anyway, I'm not asking for complete trust or anything like it. But when I read your list and see that I'm probably in the bottom third or so, I'll try to argue my case to help the village avoid a bad lynch (me).

[hoopsguy]

I was hoping that Chief Rum would arrive before I was packing it in for the night, but no such luck. I have a feeling he will be able to provide some perspective on today's events.

[RendeR]

VOTE OLLIEGIRL

Everyone seems to trust her or ignore her for some reason. Why?

She pushed votes for me even after the majority seem to agree that I'm not all that ballsy. I've seen nothing to mitigate her from suspicion. I'd like to hear her defend her villager-ness.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Day 4 - we had the 9AM deadline and I had to get to work. So I moved it right before I left. I posted my initial vote for Path before going to bed that night, but no one joined me on the vote by the time I woke up in the morning. So I had the choice of leaving the vote there or trying to figure out which of you/Bug was more likely to be a wolf. Given those choices, I thought you were more likely a wolf. I don't believe I played a role in the escalation of either you or Bug directly as candidates, but you did both fall under the "RPI voters" so that probably contributed to the top vote getters that day.

Anyway, I'm not asking for complete trust or anything like it. But when I read your list and see that I'm probably in the bottom third or so, I'll try to argue my case to help the village avoid a bad lynch (me).

Do you understand why you asking about night actions freaks me out a bit? Also, do you have any issues with the rest of my list?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You all awake in the morning, shocked from the night actions before.

You realize one of you was missing. You all realize it is path12 missing. A quick search of the club finds him with a knife deeply imbeded in his cheast. You also notice his face was in the form of a muzzle and his fingernails were yellow.

Path12 was a wolf!!

Day 7 has begun

Aw, crap. Go wolves!

[hoopsguy]

Sure, I can understand being concerned with it. But I felt like having some coordination around our activities was better than having them overlap or not used by the wolves plucking the appropriate parties.

As it turns out, we won't have the luxury of the Bartender the rest of the way. The knife was already used, which eliminates concerns of overlap with the table - would suck to block an action on a guy who is dead. So it is a moot point, but if I had thought about it a little earlier in the evening (spent some time with my wife, since today seemed like a foregone conclusion) then I think we could have hashed through pros/cons when it was still applicable.

I think I would have been willing to accept it as a dumb/overly risky idea, but was personally intrigued enough that I wanted some 2nd/3rd opinions.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Who's left:

2. RenderR - I have him as trusted, with some room for distrust, but not much.
4. Chief Rum - I now trust Chief Rum.
5. St.Cronin - Villager
10. Oliegirl - I trust oliegirl, and have for a while.
11. Mr.DNA - has been pretty much invisible
12. Eaglefan - Probably should be trusted, although I'm still a little fuzzy on the details of what happened yesterday.
13. Passacaglia - High on a lot of people's distrust lists, mostly because he's been quiet. Has he been linked with anybody? I'll have to look at his votes.
17. Raiders Army - Highest trusted player right now.
20. Hoopsguy - I'm wary. I didn't like his trying to coordinate the night actions, that seemed like a plan that would only help the wolves.
21. Arlington Colt - Not sure. I think he should have used or passed the folding table. Not doing so worries me.

With three dead wolves, we should have some outstanding vote data to work through.

2. RendeR - lean towards trust, but probably less than you based on above
4. Chief Rum - pretty high level of trust for moment, with opportunity to move higher
5. Cronin - feel better about now that Path is revealed as wolf. Middle of pack for me
10. Oliegirl - initial trust was based on Neon vote, but what does that mean if he was the Goth? Still, little above average trust at moment
11. MrDNA - is going to get lynched at some point because he hasn't given anyone reasons to trust, or context to review for all intents and purposes
12. EagleFan - if you trust Rum, you should trust Eagle as he basically saved him on Day 5 vote
13. Pass - distrust goes back to my Day 5 question: what do you associate with a player? For guys who are normally involved and helping guide action, it is troubling when you can't put together an answer to this question in late-game mode
17. Raiders - looking very good based on Crim block, all indicators point to Raiders as party who passed him item
20. Hoops - I know I'm villager, but it is up to you guys to believe me or not
21. Arlington - if he is a wolf, score some points for out-of-the box defense today with chair reveal. It is enough to elevate him compared to Mr. DNA

And now I really am going to bed.

[st.cronin]

I agree that Rum and Eagle are somewhat tied together, but as I look at that day 5 vote, I'm almost overwhelmed with possibilities of what different players were trying to accomplish. Knowing that PurdueBrad was the brutal wolf, and put a late vote on Chief Rum ... I just don't know what to think.

[EagleFan]

Post 289 is THE REVEAL post.

This is up to the post starting day three


2. RenderR
day one
(70) votes hoopsguy
(75) unvote hoopsguy, vote alanT
(77) unvote alant, vote DT
(95) unvote DT, vote St. Cronin
(147) calls Cronin out
(181) cals out cronin again
(190) more cronin taunting
(208) more man crush taunting of cronin
(239) points out that cronis normally HATES no lynch after cronin advocated it
(255) tries to patch things up with cronin, to save finger pointing until tomorrow
(257) says NC is a tempting vote
(305) says that NC lying would be a poor play, in response to cronin
(313) unvote cronin, vote DT

day two
(472) calls out Neon to defend himself and his actions
(541) suggests something more to BK's comments about Neon's play
(553) vote NC, vote nightfall

4. Chief Rum
day one

day two
(442) voices displeasure of nailing the seer on day one
(447) chastises DNA's newbie humor
(455) votes NC
(457) says he would rather DT keep his powers for now
(563) says he would see BK as being good

5. St.Cronin
day one
(87) vote RendeR
(118) no one hardly listens to him (response to quote about veterans)
(120) Asks for anyone who hasn't checked in
(122) points out Crim, CR and DNA not checked in, adds RA in 123
(128) not fan of changing votes, barring a reveal he adds, says RPI and CR not ideal candidates to vote for
(137) points out who has not voted
(163) says if he needs to move his vote it will be to NC
(175) says changing day one votes is unnecesary interference
(183) points out that CR has rep of being a clever villager able to detect wolves
(186) adds that he meant in later rounds and that it is just a reputation and that he thinks some are overrated
(212) points out to Lathum that he missed olliegirl's vote of NC
(217) points out that PurdueBrad's unvote of RPI actually breaks the tie and puts NC in the lead
(236) agrees with Purdue in engineering a tie
(240) responds to RendeR that he is the most vocal for no lynch game after game
(258) says preference is no lynch, somone other than himself, Crim
(294) geez, second agame in a row with day one reveal
(296) unvote Render, vote RPI
(304) suggests it possible that NC is lying?

day two
(393) Wants to hear from Neon what what happened night one
(397) Speculates night actions from day one, still wants to hear from Neon
(402) votes NC, votes nightfall
(406) says he would rather DT save his ability
(430) questions why Alan giving golf club is reason to trust him
(433) says BG block possible for Neon that night
(434) questions Neon telling truth about having item
(437) questions Neon's trustworthiness
(451) points out all NC's day one votes as possible good players (edit: history bears that out)
(478) questions if Neon not voting for Crim means something after talking about it (edit: history proves not)
(488) says quiet players worry him, DNA, RA and AC
(511) says the DT vote is wolfish

10. Oliegirl
day one
(199) votes NC, to go back and read what she missed
(209) points out to lathum that he missed her vote of NC
(216) says she is tired and leaving

day two
(481) votes NC
(503) says she is sticking with NC vote but BK is next
(507) again questions BK

11. Mr.DNA
day one
(127) checks in with remark about home from fields, like good villagers do
(143) votes AlanT, jokes about AC being on to him

day two
(580) "asks" for something to convince him who to vote for
(582) votes NC, says his vote doesn;t matter as in RL

12. Eaglefan
day one
(104, 105) Check in and ask ratio of wolves to villagers, response from RPI in 106
(132) Votes NC
(167) unvote NC, vote hoopsguy
(173) incorrectly assumes about the voting
(251) call out NC for wanting to wait for someone else to vote before he would

day two
(395) vote DT
(399) questions night phase information, what is it (editorial: thinking it was something else that Lathum was going to share to add on to what was said already)
(440) Asks if a BG reveal could go both ways, where wolf could recognize BG, suggests if that is the case it may have altered if BG would protect Neon
(557) unvote DT
(560) vote NC

13. Passacaglia
day one
(65) Voices it bad form to vote out new players
(115) votes CR

day two
(375) checking in on day one vote
(508) defends his day one CR vote, says he is staying on NC to allow DT to save his duke powers
(509) asks why would the wolves waste time on going after NC
(512) says that the wolves would have thought NC was a seer (edit: sounds like it goes against his last arguement)
(523) votes NC

17. Raiders Army
day one
(140) votes EagleFan, does not like the NC vote after AlanT voted

day two
(534) votes NC, supports Crim as good guy
(535) defends (somewhat) Neon's ploy if he was a villager as desperation, questions non-voting tactic used in day one
(558) says NC vote is the best play for the day

20. Hoopsguy
day one
(57) Toys with voting DT off, based on DT not wanting out in day one
(68) Posts 4 theories in day one voting, voices he will vote early to see momentum
(82) vote RPI-Fan
(116) Tells Pass that CR will be away and that he is giving him a pass because of that
(145) defends RPI vote and movement behind it, mentions villagers changing vote to test theory
(214) suggests a scan of the two leading vote getters RPI and NC

day two
(357) Suggests Crim is villager
(374) apologizes to RPI, says he wished to speak post game about decision
(394) Agrees with plan for DT vote, but will check back in
(439) questions if Neon is pro-country club, makes this odd statement "Well, a lie about the serving tray could serve as a reason that the wolves would go in another direction rather than coming after one of their own."
(461) vote NC
(601) posts early trust list (Crim, DT, olliegirl - edit: 2 of 3 are now-dead villagers)

21. Arlington Colt
day one
(71) Thanks for welcome, he's going to study previous WW games to see how it's done
(141) votes DNA

day two
(491) votes NC, believes BK is a wolf (edit: history proves not)
(492) defends lack of posts

[Chief Rum]

Wow! Crim was a bad loss, as our most trusted villager and the last good role, but you have to think we really came out on top nabbing two wolves.

To those of you whom have surmised as such, yes, I passed the knife "into" path. It was never my intention to pass the knife. Sorry to be misleading, but I needed the wolves to look elsewhere for their kill, but I felt I needed your help to pin down who to use the knife on (thus the knife reveal).

I'll admit, it was more of a feeling than anything on path. That and his late vote on me which would have killed me. A villager could have made that move, of course, but a wolf definitely has incentive. Why kill me at night if the village is willing to do it for them? Thank God for Eaglefan.

I think we're definitely in a position to do some vote analysis and find us a wolf or two. At this point, I not only think Neon was the Goth, but hope he was. It will be much easier doing voting analysis on that assumption, than trying to guess who else might be the Goth.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Good game, good luck to my brother wolf. Villagers, nice lynch.

Okay, did anyone else catch this? Rookie mistake? Or a ploy set up in advance to try to mislead us? path later wishes luck to "wolves".

If we think PB made a mistake here, are we only looking at one wolf? And is he also essentially clearing oliegirl?

Something to think about.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, so if that wasn't in play then:
1.) We got another block from someone who has not yet posted
2.) The wolf order had Path as the killer for tonight
3.) They got the Goth - consider this unlikely but don't have many other options
4.) They didn't turn in an order

Any other possibilities I'm missing?

I highly doubt three or four, and I don't think one because just how many darn tables are there in this game? My guess is path was last night's designated killer, much to the wolves' eventual dismay.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I was hoping that Chief Rum would arrive before I was packing it in for the night, but no such luck. I have a feeling he will be able to provide some perspective on today's events.

Yeah, sorry about that. Was at work. Glad I stepped in here before I went in, though. That's when I put the knife order in.

[Chief Rum]

Okay, my new trust list, behind myself, of course.

Most trusted

Raiders Army-- for the table and for his general vibe.
Eaglefan-- he saved my ass and is continuing to display that dig through posts enthusiasm that newbie villagers sometimes do.

Pretty trusted

Hoopsguy-- he has consistently been helping us, throwing out theories and being rational. He was on path for two days. He supported Crim against NC. I can't think of any questionable votes. If he's a wolf, hand him the prize. I just don't see it.
st.cronin-- he is trying too hard to help. I see cronin as a very crafty wolf, but my experience is he doesn't play the "out there stirring shit up" wolf. He is the consistent argue his side, active, low risk moves wolf. In other words, very dangerous if you don't pay attention to him. But we have been. He has been challenged, and been consistent and staunch in his stances. I said before I lean toward him as a villager and I still do.

On an aside, if hoops, st.cronin and I are all truly villagers (and I know I am), then the wolves may have made a terrible mistake in letting all of us live this long. Not tooting or nothing, just saying...

Uncertain

ArlingtonColt-- he says he has the table. Not sure why a wolf would even offer that information up. But that's definitely not enough to put him as trusted. His fate could depend on how he uses the table.
MrDNA-- Not getting a bad vibe off of him, but it's much more difficult to "read" someone in your first game with him. Fits the mold of the classic UTR wolf, and I could even see a vet wolf like path telling DNA to do exactly this.
oliegirl-- she was in a good position if NC was an original, but I don't think he was now, so she loses the points for having her vote on him. Still don't get a bad vibe off of her, but I think my earlier impressions were colored by my perception of NC as an original wolf. So I am undecided.

Distrusted

Passacaglia-- As has been mentioned, how do you get this far in the game as a vet and not have a read on someone experienced like Pass? I am definitey suspicious right now.

He's Hairy

RenderR-- Is everyone's trust in him based solely on the Barkeep kill? I mean honestly the more I look at him the wolfier he gets. Look at his Day One votes. He bounced around more than NC. He is stylistically the type of player who would boldly kill a villager with the knife as a wolf, and then announce he did to garner trust. When path made his vote last night, I wasn't the only option--he could have also hanged Render. But he chose me. The wolf chose me, a villager, over Render. Keep that in mind. And then tonight Render puts in the first vote on, IMO, one of the most trusted remaining villagers in Eaglefan. He screams bloody wolf to me right now.

And with that...

VOTE RENDER

[Passacaglia]

For those looking at me to be more of a presence, I can't say much. I started a new job this Monday (I think I mentioned getting the job offer in an earlier game), and FOFC is blocked there. It's probably a good thing -- I might actually get some work done now -- but it means I won't be in the thread all day like I used to be.

Chief, you've got some interesting thoughts there on RendeR. That's enough to put him on my distrust list, which is growing and growing: EagleFan (forcing tie), hoops (cahoots with PB, IMO), Render (voted CR over path), and oliegirl (I think PB's "brother wolf" comment might have been a ploy to keep us off her).

I'm going to vote where my gut is telling me now. I encourage people to look back at the exchange between PB, me, and hoops the day we had a tie. I keep reading it myself, feeling like I was being used as a pawn to give PB an excuse to move his vote. Does anyone else get that feeling from reading it?

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[Passacaglia]

Okay -- thinking again, I'm willing to elevate EagleFan slightly above my distrust list. I keep looking at him for forcing that tie, but I could see that maybe he didn't notice path's vote? Considering that he voted FOR path to try to break the tie, I can trust him. I don't think three wolves (EF, path, PB) could coordinate a tie that closely. Although...is there any reason the wolves would want a tie over killing CR? The best I can see is that they might be indifferent to it. Yeah, thinking about it more, EagleFan is probably good -- sorry about getting on your case, bud, I was just pissed about the tie.

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to do a couple of voting history posts today to see where people fell during some of the votes that look impactful over the course of the game. Obviously Day 5 will be a big one, but I think Day 1 is significant as well and potentially Day 4 depending on how it sorts out with our three wolves. But I'll see if I can run them all and dig out some lessons to help with today's vote.

Going into it, my internal prejudice is that Pass is a wolf. But maybe I'll see something there to change my mind.

[hoopsguy]

(439) questions if Neon is pro-country club, makes this odd statement "Well, a lie about the serving tray could serve as a reason that the wolves would go in another direction rather than coming after one of their own."

I haven't gone back to the post to review it, but I'll try to recall my chain of thought at the time.

A wolf could publicly post about having a serving tray in the thread, and then use that as a reason to be around the next day. "Guess the wolves didn't want to take a chance my serving tray would block them" or something to that effect. But if they are a wolf, of course the wolves would not night-kill them.

It makes sense to me, but if it still seems confusing then let's talk about it some more.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Okay, did anyone else catch this? Rookie mistake? Or a ploy set up in advance to try to mislead us? path later wishes luck to "wolves".

If we think PB made a mistake here, are we only looking at one wolf? And is he also essentially clearing oliegirl?

Something to think about.

Just a mistake, I believe. He made this statement before path was knifed. If path was the last wolf the game would be over. So there's at least one more wolf out there.

[Raiders Army]

I could go RendeR since I see what Chief's seeing, but I sense there's going to possibly be a hoops/Pass showdown today. Both are vets and it's strange that they've been alive for so long. Yes, I would take out a trusted villager, but at some point I'd take out someone who can analyze information and make some good deductions.

I also think that MrDNA is a good candidate for today.

[ArlingtonColt]

I could always use the table tonight. We just need 2 really good lynching candidates and I would hate for the table to goto waste this late in the game.

[oliegirl]

I think our main focus needs to be on PB's votes day 5...he was SO reluctant to move his vote, and when he did, it didn't help at all with the tie (If I'm remembering correctly, I'm seriously sleep deprived today).

As for RendeR's vote on me and wanting me to justify my votes, etc...what would you like to know? I voted for NC twice, based on my gut instinct...turned out to be right. I voted for Telle based on her play of the game, much less outspoken than she had been the previous games I'd played with her...my intuition was that she was a first time wolf and wasn't sure how to handle it, so she was laying low. Turns out I was half right, she was a first time seer and not sure how to handle it so she laid low. My mistake, but it wasn't my vote alone that got her voted out. Then I voted for you, again, following my gut...which still is telling me there is more there than what we know. Maybe I'm wrong, in this game anything is possible...but again, I'm a villager...I was given a serving tray with my initial PM and I have not passed it or used it, I still have it in my possession. Anything you want to know, ask...I have nothing to hide.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by RendeR

VOTE HOOPSGUY
He's being entirel;y too helpful. Its obviously a ploy.

Originally Posted by RendeR

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY
VOTE ALAN T
Ok now Alan is defending hoops, thats obviously a ploy.

Originally Posted by RendeR

UNVOTE ALAN T
VOTE DADDYTORGO
Don't mess with me mister, just because I'm PARANOID doesn't mean no one is out to get me.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Vote RendeR
Maybe its just the usual render madness, but me no likey.

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

schizo render-voting...fun times!

Originally Posted by RendeR

UNVOTE DADDYTORGO
VOTE ST. CRONIN
You always find a reason to vote for me. Damn you man, damn you to hell.

Ok, lets look at my day one voting shall we?

If you can read this and see anything other than me being a buffoon then you are seriously in need of a long break from WW games. yer paranoid. its day 1 for freaking cryin out loud. This game is BORING on day 1, I try to lighten the day by being a goofball. Check my other games, I do it every time.

Well accept that game whre i WAS a wolf...have to watch that giveaway....

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

He's Hairy

RenderR-- Is everyone's trust in him based solely on the Barkeep kill? I mean honestly the more I look at him the wolfier he gets. Look at his Day One votes. He bounced around more than NC. He is stylistically the type of player who would boldly kill a villager with the knife as a wolf, and then announce he did to garner trust. When path made his vote last night, I wasn't the only option--he could have also hanged Render. But he chose me. The wolf chose me, a villager, over Render. Keep that in mind. And then tonight Render puts in the first vote on, IMO, one of the most trusted remaining villagers in Eaglefan. He screams bloody wolf to me right now.

And with that...

VOTE RENDER

So you honestly BELIEVE that I'm gutsy enough to try that? Thanks. I appreciate the compliment, unfortunately its totaly unfounded. I've been a wolf one time and I played that game so close to the vest I almost suffocated.

The funny thing is, now that I'm practically the only one left who seriously believed(s) that YOU are the final wolf, you're coming after me with guns blazing.

As for paths vote move, it seems to me that forcing a tie by tossing a vote on one of his own was a real smart move on path's part, voting records being all we have to go on and all, it makes you look shiny by him moving to you in that situation, giving you some real pulling power to come out after your only real detractor today.

So, which of us is more ballsy? Me for knifing BK or You for playing on the voting sympathy to become trusted?

I'm a villager, I've been a villager and I'l die a villager.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

I think our main focus needs to be on PB's votes day 5...he was SO reluctant to move his vote, and when he did, it didn't help at all with the tie (If I'm remembering correctly, I'm seriously sleep deprived today).

As for RendeR's vote on me and wanting me to justify my votes, etc...what would you like to know? I voted for NC twice, based on my gut instinct...turned out to be right. I voted for Telle based on her play of the game, much less outspoken than she had been the previous games I'd played with her...my intuition was that she was a first time wolf and wasn't sure how to handle it, so she was laying low. Turns out I was half right, she was a first time seer and not sure how to handle it so she laid low. My mistake, but it wasn't my vote alone that got her voted out. Then I voted for you, again, following my gut...which still is telling me there is more there than what we know. Maybe I'm wrong, in this game anything is possible...but again, I'm a villager...I was given a serving tray with my initial PM and I have not passed it or used it, I still have it in my possession. Anything you want to know, ask...I have nothing to hide.

So what yer saying is...nothing? really. There is no evidence that really supports all this trust everyone is pouring out to you. I honestly don't think you're the wolf at this point, but I certainly don't have any level of trust in you at all either.

Thank you for the response. I'm not trying to accuse you, yet anyway, but everyone seems to trust you for some weird reason and I wanted to make sure people realized there isn't any evidence for it at this stage.

[RendeR]

And one final point, Where di I EVER vote for Eaglefan????

[Lorena]

FOUR!!

[RendeR]

I heart DC

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by RendeR

So what yer saying is...nothing? really. There is no evidence that really supports all this trust everyone is pouring out to you. I honestly don't think you're the wolf at this point, but I certainly don't have any level of trust in you at all either.

Thank you for the response. I'm not trying to accuse you, yet anyway, but everyone seems to trust you for some weird reason and I wanted to make sure people realized there isn't any evidence for it at this stage.

I guess you are right...but if you think about it, unless you are involved in something that flat out proves you as a villager, all anyone ever has to go on is voting records and what you contribute to the thread. As for voting records, I've never been a wolf but I imagine that they can pretty much manipulate their voting record and "hide" votes so that they look good...in a situation like we had last night, a landslide for PB, the wolves could vote there and it would do nothing to help anyone build trust.

I don't really have anything else I can tell you other than I am a villager, always have been. But I have no idea who I'm going to vote for today so if you have any ideas/suggestions, throw them out there and let's see what we can figure out.

[RendeR]

Ok hopefully this will work:

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...earchid=200666


This is a list of every post I made in this game with the word vote in it, you read over this (everyone) and try and explain where it appears wolfish and where I ever mention, let alone vote for Eaglefan.

CR is furry, he's making shit up to try and get rid of me because I snifed out his fallacy filled arguements early on regarding the day 1 antics.

[RendeR]

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[st.cronin]

I'm going to vote for one of these players:

Passacaglia, Mr.Dna, Arlington Colt.

But I'm going to vote late, see where other people go with their vote. That's a little out of character for me, but the early votes all concern me.

I think we have the luxury of lynching a villager, but I'd rather not lynch one that people trust (like Rum or Render, although I might be the only one who trusts Render).

[RendeR]

I'm open to reasons why CR is good, if someone can give me a rundown I'd appreciate it. He's rubbed me the wrong way the entire game and come after me as soon as I started picking apart his theory early on.

So, why do people trust CR?

[st.cronin]

Because he killed path. Rather, he claimed to have killed path, and nobody has contradicted him.

[hoopsguy]

Second reason - because Path and PurdueBrad both dropped very late votes on Chief in Day 5 when Path and you were in the line of fire for the lynching.

That can be taken multiple ways - the worst for you is that we had two wolves as leading vote getters at the time (you and Path) so Purdue and Path had to bring up one of the trailing candidates. A better view from your perspective would be that they decided it would be easier to justify their votes by lynching Chief than you on the following day.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Second reason - because Path and PurdueBrad both dropped very late votes on Chief in Day 5 when Path and you were in the line of fire for the lynching.

That can be taken multiple ways - the worst for you is that we had two wolves as leading vote getters at the time (you and Path) so Purdue and Path had to bring up one of the trailing candidates. A better view from your perspective would be that they decided it would be easier to justify their votes by lynching Chief than you on the following day.

Knowing now that Path was a wolf, this seems like the most likely choice. I think it's Occum's Razor, the simplest answer is usually the correct answer.

[RendeR]

Ok, how the hell id I miss CR admitting to the assassination of path?

I'll admit I could have been wrong. The probability that they sarificed path is worse than nill.

UNVOTE CR

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Path 4- Hoops (1287), Pass (1318) MrDNA (1321),Eagle (1375),
Chief 4- RendeR (1289), Cronin (1296), PurdueBrad(1366), Path12 (1372)
RendeR 3- Chief (1282), Olie (1284), Raiders (1315)
Cronin 1- Crim (1266)

These are the final votes for Day 5. Work is pretty busy today, but I expect to have more time this afternoon to look at the votes/unvotes and comments leading up to this vote.

Quick notes on the final votes here:
- both known/dead wolves moved late onto Chief Rum, who has now killed one of them. Gee, he looks pretty good here.
- Pass had his vote on Path (wolf) and it didn't move at the end. I want to go back and see if he was around with an opportunity to do so (based on posts after #1318). If not, that speaks well for him
- RendeR and Cronin both have votes on Chief. Both of their votes were in relatively early. I don't think either of them had a ton of incentive to move based on self-preservation, but it would look better for both of them to be on a now-known wolf than to be on an assumed villager
- MrDNA's vote on Path certainly increased the pressure on a wolf down the stretch, as it put him in a tie for the lead (going from memory here). Speaks well for him
- two of the three votes on RendeR are from assumed good villagers (Chief and RA) and the third from Olie

As stated above, next exercise is to review the votes and comments that day in full. After that, I would be interested in tracking the votes each day from Path and Purdue and comparing them to other players still in the game. The assumption behind that is that the wolves would try to stay dispersed in their votes when possible. If someone has their votes dovetail really closely with a known wolf that is a sign that they are more likely to be good rather than bad.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by RendeR

7 - Mr Bug- Raiders Army (981), Crim (1010), ArlingtonColt (1015), Pass (1028), Cronin (1044), Oliegirl (1136), Path (1151)
4 - Cronin- Render (992), Mr Bug (1055), PurdueBrad (1148), Hoops (1200)
1 - PurdueBrad- EagleFan (1016)
1 - RendeR- Chief (1191)


just to add numbers to make this easier to read =)

I don't think that Lathum had an official vote post for the end of Day 4, this is the last one publicly listed and there were no votes afterwards. Just putting it up in case someone else wants to review voting records, Day 5, or any of that fun stuff.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

final vote count

MrBug 6- Molson (679), RaidersArmy (801), Crim (808), Telle (829), Render (862), chiefrum (887)
Telle 4- Cronin (683), Olie (723), Pass (756), MrBug (827)
Oliegirl 1-DNA (752)
Purdue 3- Eagle (620), Path12 (817), HoopsGuy (880)
DT 1- Purdue (732)

This is the Day 3 vote.

[RendeR]

Gotta get ready for work, back on later from there.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

There is heated discussion today with most feeling Neon_Chaos is a wolf. Some speak up in his defense, including Barkeep, but in the end the majority rules.

You all grab him and hold him down, someone grabs a handfull of golf tees and thrusts the violently into Neon_Chaos' eyes. He begins to twitch and as he dies his face takes the form of a muzzle.

Neon_Chaos was a wolf!!!!

You all feel good about your choice, night actions to come

Didn't quickly find a vote page for Day 2 (Neon runaway) but this post can act as a benchmark for people who want to look at Day 3 in its entirety.

End of Day 2 - Post #590
End of Day 3 - Post #912
End of Day 4 - Post #1205
End of Day 5 - Post #1397