Invasion of Ukraine

[NobodyHere]

I think we've read this story before:

Lukashenko claims Poland is trying to annex Ukraine, Wagner troops want to invade

[Edward64]

The threat is more real by a couple notches as Wagner troops are now in Belarus.

But nothing big will happen to Poland, but I can see some minimal cross border incursions "mistakes" and/or exchange of gunfire to distract NATO. It's to Russia benefit to keep NATO distracted some & watching an additional border.

I've read Zelenskyy downplayed the threat from Wagner coming from the North. Not sure why, I'd think that's the real threat (Kyiv is relatively close to that border, about 140 miles).

Unfortunately, looks like this war is dragging out. Would be nice to see a Ukrainian breakthrough.

[Edward64]

Supposedly video of US cluster munition at work.

Night video is pretty grainy but still fascinating. Definitely hate to be on the receiving end of that.

Blocked

[Edward64]

Ukraine has hit Moscow again with a second drone in the past 3-4 days.

There are some videos out there. More symbolic, didn't do massive damage but bringing the war closer home to Muscovites. Heck, they need to land one at Red Square.

Although great for Ukrainian morale, I do wonder if this will result in increased Russian patriotism and stiffen their resolve. I've watched a YT video of a westerner visiting Russian malls. Even with western companies withdrawing, it's still pretty much life goes on, no noticeable significant hardships in Moscow.

[Edward64]

Not good trend for Ukraine or Joe.

I'm sure if Ukraine was making fantastic gains like late last year, the % will be up. If it continues at this pace with stalemate or only incremental wins, it won't be good for public opinion.

The embedded survey also had the question "Should US do more", from high of 62% to now 48%.

CNN Poll: Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine in war with Russia | CNN Politics

Most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, as the public splits over whether the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine.

Overall, 55% say the US Congress should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine vs. 45% who say Congress should authorize such funding. And 51% say that the US has already done enough to help Ukraine while 48% say it should do more. A poll conducted in the early days of the Russian invasion in late February 2022 found 62% who felt the US should have been doing more.

Partisan divisions have widened since that poll, too, with most Democrats and Republicans now on opposing sides of questions on the US role in Ukraine.

When asked specifically about types of assistance the US could provide to Ukraine, there is broader support for help with intelligence gathering (63%) and military training (53%) than for providing weapons (43%), alongside very slim backing for US military forces to participate in combat operations (17%).

[Edward64]

Pretty depressing update.

Western allies receive increasingly 'sobering' updates on Ukraine's counteroffensive: 'This is the most difficult time of the war' | CNN Politics

Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.

“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.

“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”

The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

[Edward64]

I guess we shouldn't complain about the Fed missing the inflation signs and our .25 .50 .75 incremental hikes vs Russia's 3.5 hike.

Responding to a rapidly deteriorating ruble, the Bank of Russia hiked its key interest rate on Tuesday by 3.5 percentage points to 12%.

Some policy wonks are saying this does not mean Russia is going off the cliff anytime soon. But does seem to be a huge surprise which is typically needed to address some sort of big immediate crisis.

Maybe all the sanctions are beginning to really bite.

[NobodyHere]

Yeah, maybe sanctions, or maybe the farms and factories of Russia are missing the labor that have been sent to the frontlines.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Yeah, maybe sanctions, or maybe the farms and factories of Russia are missing the labor that have been sent to the frontlines.

I've watched a couple of his episodes on life in Russia. He vlogging in supermarkets and shopping malls.

Travelling with Russell - YouTube

TBH, it doesn't look like the war has significantly adversely impacted most people so far. I'm sure there's pain and some poor sods have it worse than others, but most people seem to be okay.

[GrantDawg]

They couldn't get him near a window:

BREAKING: Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the Wagner Group, was on the passenger list of a plane that crashed in Russia. All 10 people aboard were killed. https://t.co/DSSVRxZnPj

— The Associated Press (@AP) August 23, 2023

[Edward64]

Nice, very subtle.

Feel sorry for the other 9 people caught up in it.

[GrantDawg]

There are reports from Wagner group that it was shot down.

[Edward64]

Why the frak didn't he just keep on rolling into Moscow.

[albionmoonlight]

If you come at the king, you best not miss. He came at the king and decided to call it off halfway through. This seems completely inevitable.

[Solecismic]

Assassinating the leader of a group of 25,000 mercenaries who were able to do tremendous damage to your military on a half-hearted half-march to your capital and is now stationed in a neighboring country... seems like a bad long-term move. Then again, not assassinating him seems like a bad long-term move.

Oh, when you're 70 and clinging to leadership while hiding in your bunker and the only thing that's keeping you alive is your toady relationship with the dictator of the largest country on earth. China's going to eat Russia like it's the Big Ten and it's time for some Pac 12 snacks.

[Edward64]

Supposedly of the plane.

Video missed the explosion but it was a long way down ...

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status...680361239?s=20

[Thomkal]

I am seeing some reporting now that there was a second Wagner plane that flew back to Moscow after the first plane blew up. Given that its Russia we may never know what happened unless he shows up alive on TV/social media somewhere

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

If you come at the king, you best not miss. He came at the king and decided to call it off halfway through. This seems completely inevitable.

He threw the party but nobody came. Once it was obvious he wasn't going to get the military to join him, his fate was sealed.

[RainMaker]

Utkin was on the plane too so they got 2 birds with one missile.

[NobodyHere]

I wasn't expecting this so soon

Crimea: Ukraine says it landed troops on the shores of Russian-occupied peninsula | CNN

I wish the best of luck!

[Edward64]

Nice. Need a panicked Russian civilian population to go home. Hope more to come.


(But doesn't make up for the approx 2%+ swing back into the negative today ... WTF)

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Supposedly of the plane.

Video missed the explosion but it was a long way down ...

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status...680361239?s=20

Supposedly fake

NewsMobile fact-checked the above claim and found it to be Misleading.

Running the keyframes of the video through Reverse Image Search, we came across the same video uploaded on YouTube back in June 2023. The title of the video reads, “Plane crash near Voronezh.” It suggests that the viral video is not related to mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane crash.

Taking a hint from it, we did an open keyword search and came across the same video uploaded on the official YouTube handle of Daily Mail dated June 26. The title of the video reads, “Wagner soldiers shoot down Russian plane during attempted coup.” According to the description, the video showed a Russian Air Force AN-26 plane shot down by a Wagner soldier. Other media houses also reported the same.

[Edward64]

re: Russian jet firing at a RAF surveillance aircraft. Read about this incident earlier but more detailed account below.

Scary how something like this could happen in a (supposedly) modern country's airforce.

I want to know if the first pilot is still flying.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-66798508

As the two Russian SU-27s approached the RAF spy plane, they received a communication from their ground station controller.

One western source told the BBC the words they received were to the effect of "you have the target".

This ambiguous language was interpreted by one of the Russian pilots as permission to fire.

The loose language appears to have shown a high degree of unprofessionalism by those involved, sources said. In contrast, Nato pilots use very precise language when asking for and receiving permission to fire.

The Russian pilot released an air-to-air missile, which successfully launched but failed to lock on to its target, the BBC has been told. It was a miss, not a malfunction.

Defence sources have told the BBC that a row then broke out between the two Russian pilots.

The pilot of the second SU-27 did not think they had been given permission to fire.

He is said to have sworn at his comrade, effectively asking him what he thought he was doing.

Yet the first pilot still released another missile.

We had been told that the second missile simply fell from the wing - suggesting the weapon either malfunctioned or that the launch was aborted.

[Edward64]

Nice set of charts to put US aid in perspective.

https://www.bbc.com/news/66870559

For more than a year and a half, the US president has followed up that tough talk with American dollars. The US Congress has now authorised more than $110bn (£89bn) in aid to Ukraine. That includes:

$49.6bn in military assistance
$28.5bn in economic support
$13.2bn in humanitarian aid
$18.4bn to boost US defence industry capacity

As of 9 August, the White House said it had spent 91% of the allocated funds. The administration is currently asking Congress for an additional $24bn in aid, including $14bn in military support

.


I'm a little surprised that France & Spain aren't in the Top-10 chart for aid. Little surprised that Japan is on the list. Also disappointed that Taiwan is not on the list (but maybe told not to donate much so not to aggravate China).





No surprise on US, Germany and UK. Again, surprised by France & Spain not on the list (but probably because they are further away from the conflict).

[Edward64]

More new stuff for Ukraine. The ATACMS has been something Ukraine has been asking for. Assume there is an understanding there won't be a strike within Russia's non-contested territory.

Biden agrees to send long-range missiles to Ukraine - POLITICO

The news is a major win for Zelenskyy and officials in Kyiv, who have long sought the missiles. ATACMS have a range of 45 to 190 miles and Ukrainians have long argued that they are crucial to striking deep behind entrenched Russian positions along a 600-mile front line.

Time is short so who knows if it'll make a difference this "season". Might blow up some supply depots (and generals) though.

“There’s still a reasonable amount of time, probably about 30 to 45 days’ worth of fighting weather left,” Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley said recently. “Then the rains will come in; it will become very muddy, and it will be very difficult to maneuver.”

So far, sounds like a Liberty Bowl season (not New Years Day) for Ukraine 2023.

[BishopMVP]

Ukraine took out most of the Black Sea Fleet command in the Crimean capital. Allegedly the info came from unpaid Russian officers https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...-report-2023-9

The moment a second Storm Shadow missile hit the Black Sea fleet headquarters in Sevastopol. pic.twitter.com/Ipo4GmEuJx

— NOELREPORTS ���� ���� (@NOELreports) September 22, 2023

[Edward64]

Somewhat worrisome.

Western ammo stocks at 'bottom of the barrel' as Ukraine war drags on, NATO official warns | CNN

Western militaries are running out of ammunition to give to Ukraine, NATO and British officials warned Tuesday, as they urged the bloc’s nations to ramp up production to “keep Ukraine in the fight against Russian invaders.”

“The bottom of the barrel is now visible,” Adm. Rob Bauer of the Netherlands, the chair of the NATO Military Committee and NATO’s most senior military official, said of the West’s ammunition stockpile Tuesday during a discussion at the Warsaw Security Forum.

An interesting metric from pbs ...

"The Ukrainians have been burning through in one month what the United States produces in an entire year," says Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

[Edward64]

A Russian AWACs equivalent got shot down yesterday. It was nighttime and it shot a bunch of flares before the missile hit at about 1:02. Haven't seen anything like it before and oddly fascinating.

Blocked

I can't imagine being in that plane in the last few minutes. Can't but help feel a little sorry for them.

[Edward64]

I'm not sure what to think of this. Surprising to me that Macron publicized this (and assume other western NATO countries are okay with it).

On one hand, I like it. Clearly, Russia is more of an existential threat to western European NATO countries than to the US. So they should be on the front with the US supporting in the back. On the other hand, any NATO troops on the ground will escalate and increase chances of a nuclear mishap.

I'm not convinced western European countries have the stomach for this. A better way is increase $ and weapons. Maybe increase recruiting of volunteers to go (e.g. former Gurkha's, French Foreign Legion etc.).

Macron doesn’t rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine – POLITICO

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that sending Western troops to Ukraine should not be ruled out, as European leaders concluded a summit on supporting Kyiv.

"There is no consensus today to send ground troops officially but ... nothing is ruled out," Macron said at a press conference in Paris, where the meeting had just wrapped up. "We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war."

Macron confirmed the topic of Western boots on the ground in Ukraine was discussed in a "very free and direct" manner, adding that "everything is possible, if it is useful." The subject was first raised publicly by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who said a "restricted document" ahead of the summit had implied "that a number of NATO and EU member states were considering sending troops to Ukraine on a bilateral basis."

[Edward64]

Com'on Mike. Just put it up to a vote and see what happens.

House Speaker Mike Johnson faces a defining dilemma on Ukraine | CNN Politics

Johnson will find himself outnumbered Tuesday. Joining him on the Oval Office sofas will be House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer — all of whom support the swift and significant dispatch of funds for Ukraine.

“There is a strong bipartisan majority in the House standing ready to pass this bill if it comes to the floor,” Biden national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “And that decision rests on the shoulders of one person. And history is watching whether Speaker Johnson will put that bill on the floor. If he does, it will pass, we will get Ukraine what it needs for Ukraine to succeed.” Sullivan added: “If he doesn’t, then we will not be able to give Ukraine the tools required for it to stand up to Russia, and Putin will be the major beneficiary of that.”

[bob]

Hopefully without being called a Russian stooge or something, I'm just really curious what the US's goal is in this? Do we really think Ukraine is going to push back the Russia army entirely out of Ukraine? Because it really seems to me like we are saying we are ok with lots of Ukrainians dying as long as we kill Russians too.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by bob

Hopefully without being called a Russian stooge or something, I'm just really curious what the US's goal is in this? Do we really think Ukraine is going to push back the Russia army entirely out of Ukraine? Because it really seems to me like we are saying we are ok with lots of Ukrainians dying as long as we kill Russians too.

I think that is a fair question. I don't think the Admin has publicized what the "tactical goals" are (e.g. push Russia out, retake Crimea etc.). I'm sure those goals have been discussed with Ukraine but not publicized because I suspect the US and the Ukraine goals differ e.g. maybe Ukraine says completely out, US says keep what they currently have.

However, IMO the "strategic goal" is to prevent Russia from taking over Ukraine (and getting a win), and discourage any additional westward expansion.

I'm all for US continuing to support Ukraine but do believe the European allies should take the brunt of it. Ukraine would have fallen without US in the first year. Now starting the third year, Europe should take the lead on military supplies and $. I don't really know if the $65B is reasonable, but the allies should be shouldering much more than that now.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by bob

Hopefully without being called a Russian stooge or something, I'm just really curious what the US's goal is in this? Do we really think Ukraine is going to push back the Russia army entirely out of Ukraine? Because it really seems to me like we are saying we are ok with lots of Ukrainians dying as long as we kill Russians too.

Well, I'd say try to think of what happens in the scenario where the Ukrainians run out of arms. Does Russia stop where they are? Or does Russia overrun the entire country, killing off all resistance, shipping people into Russia, and reeducating anyone they don't kill into becoming Russian? This is what I don't get about anyone calling for "peace" -- it takes two to have peace, and I don't think Putin is exactly interested in that. And even if he does stop for whatever reason, he'll just decide to grab another chunk (or the rest) at a later date. I don't see the logic in "well the Ukrainians will save themselves if they just stop fighting."

[bob]

I get your point but everything just reminds of me of the domino theory and Vietnam.

[cuervo72]

True, I wouldn't say it's unrelated to the domino theory. In Vietnam though you had a case where there were divided factions in the country already, and we weren't just sending support, we were actually over there. Ukraine is not divided, and no US troops are actively fighting over there. Seems like a couple of big pluses over Vietnam.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by bob

Hopefully without being called a Russian stooge or something, I'm just really curious what the US's goal is in this? Do we really think Ukraine is going to push back the Russia army entirely out of Ukraine? Because it really seems to me like we are saying we are ok with lots of Ukrainians dying as long as we kill Russians too.

Has Russia given the slightest hint they would accept a pre-war partition of Ukraine? The war began and continues because of the Russians. They could end it at any moment.

[Atocep]

Besides blocking expansion of Russia and showing we will side with anyone they invade we're also weakening Russia just by dragging this out. The amount of money, manpower, and resources spent fighting this would make it difficult for Russia to even attempt another invasion any time soon. We're also getting field tests of some of our equipment along with getting a clear picture of Russian capabilities and Battle strategies. There's very little downside for us to continue to support Ukraine.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'm all for US continuing to support Ukraine but do believe the European allies should take the brunt of it. Ukraine would have fallen without US in the first year. Now starting the third year, Europe should take the lead on military supplies and $. I don't really know if the $65B is reasonable, but the allies should be shouldering much more than that now.

I think the relevant question is the one we talked about back then; what if they won't/don't? Are we willing to accept the consequences if we lower our funding and they don't pick up the slack?

Originally Posted by bob

it really seems to me like we are saying we are ok with lots of Ukrainians dying as long as we kill Russians too.

I'm with cuervo on this. What you're saying is not wrong, but it does have to be balanced against the alternative. I think a world in which nations like the United States don't intervene to stop aggressors is a world in which more aggression happens until we have to intervene anyway but at greater cost.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I think the relevant question is the one we talked about back then; what if they won't/don't? Are we willing to accept the consequences if we lower our funding and they don't pick up the slack?

Ultimately, yes.

Ukraine is important to the US but has decreased in importance after Year 1. Russia can still threaten western Europe but Russia has been weakened. And Europe have nukes to protect themselves.

IMO the more important threat to US is China. If asked to just pick either Ukraine/European allies or APAC, right now I'd pick the latter. $65B will go a long way for our APAC allies.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'm not sure what to think of this. Surprising to me that Macron publicized this (and assume other western NATO countries are okay with it).

Nvm. Macron jumping the gun.

Nato allies reject Emmanuel Macron idea of troops to Ukraine

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by bob

I get your point but everything just reminds of me of the domino theory and Vietnam.

The domino theory was based on a country (Vietnam) falling to communism would precipitate other countries falling into Communism. This is a country invading another country while stating they also consider surrounding countries as part of their territory. This isn't "Domino Theory", this is Germany in the 1930's.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bob

Hopefully without being called a Russian stooge or something, I'm just really curious what the US's goal is in this? Do we really think Ukraine is going to push back the Russia army entirely out of Ukraine? Because it really seems to me like we are saying we are ok with lots of Ukrainians dying as long as we kill Russians too.

Funnel billions of dollars to defense companies.

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I think a world in which nations like the United States don't intervene to stop aggressors is a world in which more aggression happens until we have to intervene anyway but at greater cost.

Come on man.

[JPhillips]

The Russians don't want a peace deal.

Former ���� President Medvedev, the head of Russia’s ruling party, outlines Moscow’s “peace plan:” unconditional surrender of Ukraine, its dissolution as a subject of international law, reparations to Russia, full absorption into the Russian Federation. https://t.co/2OBoS5MZzw

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) March 14, 2024

[RainMaker]

Seems like a whole lot of not our problem.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Seems like a whole lot of not our problem.

At what point does it become our problem? We lost them war when Ukraine didn’t get what they needed for the counterattack and they had to delay delay delay so I’d tend to agree that throwing more at this isn’t ideal but I also think Russia has been pretty clear that this isn’t the intended stopping point either.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by dubb93

At what point does it become our problem? We lost them war when Ukraine didn’t get what they needed for the counterattack and they had to delay delay delay so I’d tend to agree that throwing more at this isn’t ideal but I also think Russia has been pretty clear that this isn’t the intended stopping point either.

It wasn't our war to lose. We aren't responsible for their sovereignty. And it's not a region we should be meddling in in the first place.

What is our problem is entering a proxy war with a nuclear power. Us sending weapons to Ukraine decreases our national security. We don't need to be involved in every regional conflict around the world. Especially when it has little to no impact on us.

[cuervo72]

Might as well tell Putin how much he can safely take now, then. Xi too, I'm sure south Asia is no longer in our interests.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Might as well tell Putin how much he can safely take now, then. Xi too, I'm sure south Asia is no longer in our interests.

Why haven't you signed up to fight? With such a threat to America, shouldn't you be helping out? Ukraine is literally taking anyone willing to fight.

Visit Ukraine - How to join the International Legion of Defense of Ukraine: detailed instructions for foreigners

[RainMaker]

Also China hawks have been tossing that scare tactic shit out for 50 years now and nothing has happened. But I'm sure any day now China will destroy the relationship they have with their biggest trade partner and torpedo their economy over some islands in the South Pacific. It's totally going to happen and not the narrative some think tanks funded by the defense industry keep floating for an ever increasing defense budget.

[cuervo72]

And what, bring my own ammo? Yes, they will want my fat 50yo ass that has never fired a gun. Stop being intentionally obtuse.

I don't mind my tax money going to them though. Which is really all that they are asking for. (And it doesn't go directly to them anyway. It goes to weapons producers, which are going to get their money anyway, ultimately one way or another. Might as well have those weapons go to someone that urgently needs them.)