WW XCI: Office Space, the TPS Edition - GAME OVER - Insiders Win

[EagleFan]

Updated as of 1598:

Abe Sargent 1 - Barkeep49 (1576)
Barkeep49 1 - dubb93 (1571)
Danny 2 - PurdueBrad (1586), Autumn (1598)


yet to vote: Abe Sargent, Danny

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I'm going to pose some questions, if they are to you, please answer.

Dubb, why vote for Cartman day 1 but then not when he is a candidate on day 3?

Day one is always a crap shoot. At that point in day three I thought the most important information I had gathered was the death of Schmidty on night 1. As I said at the time I had picked up that he was most likely the seer if Claph was Joanna due to things I had picked up in the conversation during the day. The fact that a wolf had also picked up on that was not a good sign to me. In the past these are things that normally only a few would have picked up on. With Hoops dead I worked my way through the list and decided that the most likely person still living to also have picked up on this link was Barkeep. Thus my vote for Barkeep.

[dubb93]

Still to this point I have not seen a wolf die that I would have expected to pick up on this. Granted I took a VERY long break and my reads on players may be ancient at this point, but this is one of the main reasons I have been pushing for Barkeep this whole time.

[Autumn]

I'd like to see Abe and Danny put down a vote early so we can get some discussion.

[Danny]

Ok, for now, I will put my vote down where I am most suspicious.

Vote Barkeep

[PurdueBrad]

Abe, you should totally vote for yourself and just make it a three way tie. Just kidding...sort of.

[Abe Sargent]

Well, that makes it a tie, and since it has bene requested for me to vote early, I have to make a cakk, Vote my intuition or my head.

I agree with otehrs that BK seems like a gut call, and my gut is uneasy too. My head says, vote Danny or dubb, since they are not me and not BK/Autumn/PB. However, I also find it distrubing to consider this.

Two wolves made it this far (likely). Are they dubb AND Danny? Unlikely. I suspect one was able to hide successfully and that would likely be BK.

So, for now, I suppose my head is of two minds.

We may have wolf-wolf runoff here today. That'd be a change from earliar days.

Here is what I do know. PB and Autumn are currently the most trusted, and they are both going with BK.

Vote BK

[Abe Sargent]

Shit, I meant they are both going DANNY. I got my names confused.

Unvote BK
Vote Danny

[Abe Sargent]

That is very changeable, I could go BK, dubb, or Danny today.

[Barkeep49]

Just want to make sure I'm understanding the case against Danny is that he's been UTR? Is that correct? Or is there something more to it?

[PurdueBrad]

Gonna be a fun night, I can already tell!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Well, that makes it a tie, and since it has bene requested for me to vote early, I have to make a cakk, Vote my intuition or my head.

I agree with otehrs that BK seems like a gut call, and my gut is uneasy too. My head says, vote Danny or dubb, since they are not me and not BK/Autumn/PB. However, I also find it distrubing to consider this.

Two wolves made it this far (likely). Are they dubb AND Danny? Unlikely. I suspect one was able to hide successfully and that would likely be BK.

So, for now, I suppose my head is of two minds.

We may have wolf-wolf runoff here today. That'd be a change from earliar days.

Here is what I do know. PB and Autumn are currently the most trusted, and they are both going with BK.

Vote BK

There is almost zero chance at this point in the game of having a wolf/wolf showdown. With two wolves left, the wolves can vote in concert today because if they get one villager to agree with them they win the game. This, people, is the sort of flawed analysis that I'm talking about when I say abe has come out of the woodwork to try and manipulate the end game.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

There is almost zero chance at this point in the game of having a wolf/wolf showdown. With two wolves left, the wolves can vote in concert today because if they get one villager to agree with them they win the game. This, people, is the sort of flawed analysis that I'm talking about when I say abe has come out of the woodwork to try and manipulate the end game.

Didn't want the bolded part to get lost in the middle of a post because it's the most salient point at this point.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

There is almost zero chance at this point in the game of having a wolf/wolf showdown. With two wolves left, the wolves can vote in concert today because if they get one villager to agree with them they win the game. This, people, is the sort of flawed analysis that I'm talking about when I say abe has come out of the woodwork to try and manipulate the end game.

I didn't say at the end of the day, I meant right now in the middle of the day before concert begins. Don't read into to what I said.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I didn't say at the end of the day, I meant right now in the middle of the day before concert begins. Don't read into to what I said.

Oh I agree at this moment in time that the wolves are necessarily together. But I think it's unlikely a new candidate will be introduced at this point. Either you, me, or Danny are going to be lynched tonight.

[Abe Sargent]

Agreed. Especially since that's half the field and PB and Autumn are in the other half, so that's a relatively meaningless statement.

[Barkeep49]

I'm going to do something I don't normally do in light of my post in 1615. I normally don't reveal my schedule as I think bad things happen to those who do (see hoops Day 1). However, I'm going to be leaving shortly. I might be back on, I might not. I will NOT be around at lynch time though as I have a meeting which starts at that time. I WILL be getting dinner with a friend before that. So my vote on Abe is not a wolfish ploy to allow me to switch later on. It is on Abe, even though I could be lynched, because I think it's right. I know I'm innocent so doing anything I can to save myself helps the villagers, barring killing another known villager, but I won't be around at lynch to do that. I hope that the villagers join me lynching Abe. Failing that, I hope they stay on Danny.

[Abe Sargent]

See ya after lynch! have fun at meetting

[Autumn]

In light of that I'm going to switch to Abe. I don't think Barkeep's a good lynch today so I'd like to concentrate our fire.

UNVOTE DANNY
VOTE ABE

[Autumn]

oh wait, I was looking at the wrong current vote count. Let me check this.

[Abe Sargent]

You just made it a 3 way tie.

[Autumn]

Updated as of 1598:

Abe Sargent 1 - Barkeep49 (1576)
Barkeep49 2 - dubb93 (1571), danny
Danny 3 - PurdueBrad (1586), Autumn (1598), Abe

I think this is right. If so I wanted to keep my vote hwere it is.

UNVOTE ABE
VOTE DANNY

If Purdue gets on and wants to discuss swtiching to ABe I will.

[Danny]

Let's look at this. Players with possible supporting votes

Autumn 0
PB 0
Barkeep 4 (PB, Dubb, Abe and I)
Danny 4 (PB, Autumn, Dubb and Abe)
Abe 5 (BK, Dubb, Autumn, PB and I)

There is enough to lynch any of the three candidates.

[Danny]

I do think Autumn and PB should collaborate with their vote and it is best if we narrow this to two candidates so that the wolves can manipulate the vote less.

[Danny]

Then we take a shot. It seems pretty set that I'll be one of the candidates. There's really nothing I can say regarding that I really am as good of a suspect as anyone else. There's not a great objective case against any of us, so we are all going with our gut. My gut still tells me Barkeep. Since PB and Autumn will likely decide this, hopefully whatever gut you guys go with turns out right.

[Danny]

Here is my voting plan for today. If PB decides he is against possibly voting BK giving him a max # votes of 3 (too low to not risk a tie) then I will be switching my vote to Abe. I still feel like BK is the brutal, but since it's a 50/50 chance Abe is the converted wolf even if that is the case, I will go with that and keep my fingers crossed.

[EagleFan]

Updated as of 1626:

Abe Sargent 1 - Barkeep49 (1576)
Barkeep49 2 - dubb93 (1571), Danny (1605)
Danny 3 - PurdueBrad (1586), Autumn (1622), Abe Sargent (1608)

[dubb93]

Lets see

Unvote Barkeep
Vote Abe

[dubb93]

Barkeep if you end up being Lumberg when this is all said and over I'm going to be so freakin pissed.

[Abe Sargent]

What if he's the convert? Still pissed?

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Lets see

Unvote Barkeep
Vote Abe

You know this moves us to a tie, right? Danny is forced to move in SD to make it 3-3. Now, there's plenty of time for changes, but with BK out, it makes shenigans by the wolves more likely and easy.

[PurdueBrad]

Hey guys, I'm around. Any kind of switch you want to discuss Autumn?

[Autumn]

Abe Sargent 2 - Barkeep49 (1576), Dubb
Barkeep49 1 - Danny
Danny 3 - PurdueBrad (1586), Autumn (1622), Abe Sargent (1608)

This right?

[Danny]

That's right.

[PurdueBrad]

So I assume the wolves don't pull a tie here unless it is wolf-wolf because it doesn't help them for us to get an extra day.

[Abe Sargent]

Right. We go into the final hour 3-3, and the wolves are winning today.

[Barkeep49]

I'm around for about 15 minutes if there's any questions I can answer at this juncture.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm around for about 15 minutes if there's any questions I can answer at this juncture.

My gut still says you are a wolf, but unless PB feels that way we cant get the votes needed. You've played a great game if it turns out you are and this lynch costs us the game.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

My gut still says you are a wolf, but unless PB feels that way we cant get the votes needed. You've played a great game if it turns out you are and this lynch costs us the game.

Conversely if I'm a villager I've played a poor game. Sadly the historical record is going to reflect option B not option A.

[Barkeep49]

Ok out for real now. I can't wait to see if things turn out good or bad.

[PurdueBrad]

BK, hope you're good.

[PurdueBrad]

BK, is there a reason you won't vote Danny?

[Abe Sargent]

I'm glad we've gotten some good discussion today. Even if we get bad results tonight and go down, at least we went down fighting.

[PurdueBrad]

BK, particularly if you're good AND you trust Autumn and I, you have a 2 in 3 chance of hitting a wolf.

What I am thinking though is that people that aren't showing willingness to move votes (not aimed just at BK) look like wolves who are hanging on to a villager with their vote. Although who knows, maybe one will make the "hero" play near deadline and help us nail a wolf and get he credit for making a gutsy switch.

[PurdueBrad]

We should be able to vote down the wolves 4-2 here and I'm fairly concerned over the fact that we're spread 3-3. That means we've either got one good guy not willing to move OR the good guys are split evenly and stubbornly.

[Danny]

I want to be a hero

[Danny]

I still think BK is a wolf which is why I am not switching to Abe yet who I feel only gives us a 50/50 chance of hitting a wolf.

[dubb93]

My issue PB is my two main suspects are Abe and Barkeep at this point. If I vote Danny I am digging down to number 3. Yesterday I was FORCED into moving onto USFL to break the tie when it appeared to me everyone was out for the day. I would hate to be forced to vote away from my top suspects yet again at this point. This is a huge vote and I think voting for number 3 over either number one or two would be a huge mistake for me to make.

[PurdueBrad]

In order, I'm currently looking:

Danny- He played UTR for a while and almost seemed invisible but stepped up as of late (so did BK but I felt BK's participation was still a little more consistent over the course of the game). Danny's participation may coincide with the conversion or with the loss of Martin D. Also played the "hope this doesn't cause us to lose this game" card which always pings me.

Abe- Abe has been quite squirmy, avoiding a couple lynches now. I think he's a very dangerous player and I would've thought that given the chance to lynch him, the wolves would've if he was good.

Barkeep- Third choice, and I know he is a good wolf but I don't think he is. I have no good hard evidence except for him not moving his vote, which is making me second guess.

Dubb93- Haven't had a good read on him all game but that also means not a lot of pingage. If he's a wolf, he's done well.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

In order, I'm currently looking:

Danny- He played UTR for a while and almost seemed invisible but stepped up as of late (so did BK but I felt BK's participation was still a little more consistent over the course of the game). Danny's participation may coincide with the conversion or with the loss of Martin D. Also played the "hope this doesn't cause us to lose this game" card which always pings me.

Abe- Abe has been quite squirmy, avoiding a couple lynches now. I think he's a very dangerous player and I would've thought that given the chance to lynch him, the wolves would've if he was good.

Barkeep- Third choice, and I know he is a good wolf but I don't think he is. I have no good hard evidence except for him not moving his vote, which is making me second guess.

Dubb93- Haven't had a good read on him all game but that also means not a lot of pingage. If he's a wolf, he's done well.

ACTUALLY, huge adendum here. No known wolf has EVER voted for Abe, but they have voted for BK and Dubb. This is enough to swing me back to where I started...

unvote Danny
vote Abe