LXXVII Spawn III: Game Over (See Post 4507)

[saldana]

dola, did you need me to use smaller words RendeR?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Start with the expendables, and that means the scientists for now. We need the engineers and the privates to repair things and become other roles respectively, the scientists are expendable right now and more can be trained later, so pick one hoops.

Here's the post. Number 344. Hoops mentioned it earlier as well (couple pages ago?), and I replied that I remembered it.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by saldana

you asked him to essentially tell you who to vote for when he was resisting the no lynch idea...it felt very much to me like you were trying to align yourself with him by following his lead, regardless of what it was.

nicely blown dola dude =)

No nono, not aligning, in fact it was just the opposite. i was challenging him to give us someone worthy of executing. If you know anything of me and hoops you know its a tenuous allegiance at best of times and more of a "I'll trust you when I have a reason to" sort of thing..

[LoneStarGirl]

I don't want to sleep again tonight but i dont know what else i could do? What kind of research is available to us Packer? I am going to be lonely if you get lynched PF!

Olie... I dont know who i would guard or spy on if i were you, i just wish i had your job instead of being the WW nerd. Maybe somebody important like Mcollins? Or somebody who has already raised suspicion like Telle, Render or Pass??

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

This is very compelling...but I dont know if it sounds like hoops the spawn

its more compelling than the arguments we have for anyone else at this point though. So if hoops really wants us to pick someone, and we pick him, then he ought to be happy we at least have some compelling reasoning, no?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I don't want to sleep again tonight but i dont know what else i could do? What kind of research is available to us Packer? I am going to be lonely if you get lynched PF!

Olie... I dont know who i would guard or spy on if i were you, i just wish i had your job instead of being the WW nerd. Maybe somebody important like Mcollins? Or somebody who has already raised suspicion like Telle, Render or Pass??

You can stay awake in any one of the rooms/areas and watch for spawn activity. preferably in a space where someone else is there that can see you as well. just to cover yourself from accusations tomorrow.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by RendeR

its more compelling than the arguments we have for anyone else at this point though. So if hoops really wants us to pick someone, and we pick him, then he ought to be happy we at least have some compelling reasoning, no?

do you find no credence in my reasoning for PackerFan....not trying to push your vote, just wondering why you are dismissive of it

[Alan T]

Back from my game.. Alot to catch up on, but the main points I'll hit..

I am very upset... well extremely upset that the second I walk out the door, that Hoops tries to steer the duplicant to do something completely opposite of my suggestion, in a way that possibly wastes him and does absolutely nothing for our CoT.. I hope the duplicant did not take Hoops advise there, as we utterly need Path cleared so we don't have that uncertainty sitting over our heads.

I also didn't like Hoops coming out gunning for Render.. pushing a vote on him trying to kill him off a day before he can make a much needed new officer... I really would like to see Render stick around to complete the second day of that training as well as other possibilities (we really really really need a new doctor also in addition to Path and I believe only Render can make one right now).. I also don't like it that Hoops is one of the two people I don't really trust much that I referred to without names this morning would move up into that position if Render died..

If you really want to go down the idea that one of the officers must be a spawn theory, obviously Telle makes the most sense to vote as she has the same percentage as the others, plus the added risk of being off of the ship at risk of infection twice.. Hoops didn't even go that path with his logic, instead he went after the person whom he had to gain if they died (to move up the ladder)...

I think if I vote for any officer to be lynched tonight, I will join the bandwagon on Hoopsguy, but I'll hold off on my vote for a bit to make sure I'm not just peeved at him trying to undermine our CoT for now.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by saldana

do you find no credence in my reasoning for PackerFan....not trying to push your vote, just wondering why you are dismissive of it

Not at all, I like the idea od Packer, he's an expendable commodity (no offense packer) So basically my decision is going to come down to Packer or hoops, we only get one.

My nagging fear is the fact that Hoops' sudden shift to attack the officer corps came as packer was about to get a landslide vote. he single handedly stemmed that tide, unfortunately for hoops it created a second movement against himself.

[Alan T]

I think my strongest feelings right now is that I still really don't want to lose any of the personal.. we haven't had a chance to train another doctor, to get a second ensign, etc... we need more people not less...

[RendeR]

I have to agree wholeheartedly with Alan's post.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I don't want to sleep again tonight but i dont know what else i could do? What kind of research is available to us Packer? I am going to be lonely if you get lynched PF!

Olie... I dont know who i would guard or spy on if i were you, i just wish i had your job instead of being the WW nerd. Maybe somebody important like Mcollins? Or somebody who has already raised suspicion like Telle, Render or Pass??

Nothing as far as I know. I doubt it is a night time research that we can do, but, if I survive, I am going to attempt to sleep. Tomorrow we can research the phasers. I just really hope I make it that far.

[PackerFanatic]

I understand the whole "I'm expendable" argument guys, but really - you would be losing someone that isn't bad and could potentially help you more than you realize (hell, more than I realize) in the future.

[saldana]

i will admit, i didnt notice the timing of hoops change in tack as it related to alan leaving the thread...that changes things in my head a bit

an hour to ponder.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

I understand the whole "I'm expendable" argument guys, but really - you would be losing someone that isn't bad and could potentially help you more than you realize (hell, more than I realize) in the future.

Ok. Let's see what happens, since I don't care, and see no real reason for anyonw:

Unvote PackerFanatic

Vote hoopsguy

[Alan T]

I need to go shower, but will be back before lynch.. basically to explain why I really don't like Hoops trying to push the duplicant away from scanning Path:

We need the duplicant to scan Path, I know I am good and feel very likely Kwhit is good, once Path is proven to be good, we know we have a rock tight CoT.. the longer we go to only find out later that Path isn't good the worse it will be when we have to start over on building a CoT in this game.. We really need to find out today or tommorrow if Path is good to make sure the CoT is solid..

Hoops wanted to convince the duplicant to scan Danny.. Why? because he claims to have gotten some PM that sounded fairly similar to the PM I already claimed to have gotten earlier in the day... and even if Danny is telling the truth, when I got my PM it was so uncertain what it even meant, I asked Barkeep via PM what it meant.. and then still wasn't sure if it meant I was getting converted or had some power, so I had Path scan me.. and then once he confirmed there was no spawnling, I still wasn't sure what the message meant and only guessed in the thread what it meant.. If Danny's message was anything like that... that means we would have at least two of that secret role (sounds a bit overpowered perhaps depending on what it actually is), and I can't believe Danny knows any better than I do what the message actually meant..

And then even then assume Danny guessed correctly, you then are working on the assumption that jeheinz and him were the only other ones in the room which no security claimed to have guarded...


Just waaaaay too many assumptions to make me happy only to come to the end certain conclusion of Danny might be ok after all....

I just don't like that arguement at all, and really don't like that Hoops waited till I had to leave to spring it.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

I understand the whole "I'm expendable" argument guys, but really - you would be losing someone that isn't bad and could potentially help you more than you realize (hell, more than I realize) in the future.

Personally I don't think you're a spawn currently, but as others have said we have to start breaking eggs sometime.

The issue of the scientists being useful in the future isn't being questioned, but we hjave the ability to train people to be scientists, unless I'm misreading things? So we can replace you is what it comes down to. Then i suppose we can replace everyone at some point.

That leaves the present, and at present we probably need one of you, but not necessarily both.

Honestly I'm not sure who to choose.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by RendeR

its more compelling than the arguments we have for anyone else at this point though. So if hoops really wants us to pick someone, and we pick him, then he ought to be happy we at least have some compelling reasoning, no?

I don't have a problem with being in the discussion for lynch. We are getting people to pick sides and getting people to defend arguments. This is a good thing for the game, even if it is not ideal for me at the moment.

I may not think all arguments are created equal, but that is my job to demonstrate.

Back to catching up ...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Not at all, I like the idea od Packer, he's an expendable commodity (no offense packer) So basically my decision is going to come down to Packer or hoops, we only get one.

My nagging fear is the fact that Hoops' sudden shift to attack the officer corps came as packer was about to get a landslide vote. he single handedly stemmed that tide, unfortunately for hoops it created a second movement against himself.

I would caution against the idea of "perfect world" where you have two wolves caught in an unwitting trap. Almost invariably these type of theories fail - just like they will this time. No idea on Packer, but I'm the wrong guy to lynch today.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I just don't like that arguement at all, and really don't like that Hoops waited till I had to leave to spring it.

I mean this in the nicest possible way - it isn't always about you.

I didn't "spring" it when you left, even if that is your viewpoint. I posted the idea as it came to me - you not being here had zero to do with it.

If given a choice, I would have preferred you were here so we could discuss it. I like having discussion around my ideas about the game, particularly by people who have played the ruleset before, are cleared, and seem interested in winning the game.

[Schmidty]

I'm going to play Civ4, while waiting for the EQ2 trial to d/l, and the lasagna to finish cooking.

BBL. LOL. BFFS. BIO. FFM. PMIN. IHNIWIAS. HOLLA.

[hoopsguy]

Why is it that everyone who votes for me isn't going to come back for deadline (sigh)?

[jeheinz72]

What are we at, 7-6 hoops?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I would caution against the idea of "perfect world" where you have two wolves caught in an unwitting trap. Almost invariably these type of theories fail - just like they will this time. No idea on Packer, but I'm the wrong guy to lynch today.

What are you talking about? I don't think I have two spawn at all, I am worried that we have one (you at this point) I honestly don't think packer is a spawn, but he IS an expendable commodity so a vote for him isn't as dangerous as for say, an engineer for example.

Don;t try to put words in my mouth, I have no 'perfect world' theories. I've played with you far too often to believe in them

[jeheinz72]

I"m back hoops. Can't say it's likely I'll change though.

[hoopsguy]

I'm pretty much forced to change my vote, although I feel less good about it than my original candidate.

When I'm shown to be good perhaps people will go back to the Officers and use the numbers I listed - 75% chance if three are good that at least one of the other two are bad.

UNVOTE RENDER
VOTE PACKERFANATIC

[path12]

Originally Posted by saldana

in all my games of werewolf, i dont think i have ever seen a run on a player in that short of span unless it was supported by a positive seer scan...especially a player of hoops' reputation.

It's twice today I've had a bunch of people follow me. I'm not thrilled about it, especially when I said up front that I have no evidence besides gut feeling and some red flags (for me) in posts. Add in the fact that I've been wrong about hoops before.....

[RendeR]

We need 7 to execute someone? or 8?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by RendeR

What are you talking about? I don't think I have two spawn at all, I am worried that we have one (you at this point) I honestly don't think packer is a spawn, but he IS an expendable commodity so a vote for him isn't as dangerous as for say, an engineer for example.

Don;t try to put words in my mouth, I have no 'perfect world' theories. I've played with you far too often to believe in them

So why did I, as a spawn, attempt to save PackerFanatic? Push away from No Vote? How would that be "good play"?

At least give me credit for making good plays the majority of the time, even if you think I'm full of crap today.

[jeheinz72]

For those who played this ruleset before, was it apparent that spawnyness was randomized? Or was it more slotted (say an officer an engineer and a private or some such)?

Just seems whack that it could be completely random, I mean what if it was the Captain, the Doctor and the Chief Engineer. That'd seem like an unwinnable start for the survivors.

[jeheinz72]

8 RendeR, 1/3rd

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

It's twice today I've had a bunch of people follow me. I'm not thrilled about it, especially when I said up front that I have no evidence besides gut feeling and some red flags (for me) in posts. Add in the fact that I've been wrong about hoops before.....

Add to it that you can scan me tomorrow. Me being lynched is not a good villager result.

[jeheinz72]

Frankly, it's the run that is the only sliver of thing that has my worried about my vote. It's not the case against hoops at all, just watching 4 people zap him in like 10 minutes was...new.

[The Jackal]

The run on hoops was very peculiar.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by RendeR

We need 7 to execute someone? or 8?

8

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

For those who played this ruleset before, was it apparent that spawnyness was randomized? Or was it more slotted (say an officer an engineer and a private or some such)?

Just seems whack that it could be completely random, I mean what if it was the Captain, the Doctor and the Chief Engineer. That'd seem like an unwinnable start for the survivors.

I believe it was mostly random. BK wouldn't allow a starting set of conditions that were ridiculous. It is why a number of us give the Captain and the Doc a little slack initially. No in-game reason to do so, but meta-game makes us (well, me at least) that there is a better than average chance they started good.

[Alan T]

Hoopsguy, I didn't see any answers regarding my comments about why your Danny being scanned plan was not only bad but negative gain for the good guys... I also didn't see any replies to why you didn't vote for Telle whom by your percentages has a higher chance of being bad than Render right now?

[jeheinz72]

path, KWhit, Danny and PB.

Those are the runners.

I ain't votin path
I ain't votin KWhit
I ain't votin the two engineers, at least today.

So it's disconcerting that the run happened, as far as acting on it today, it's a no-go for me. If hoops is lynched and turns up good, then I'll worry.

[Alan T]

I also missed it.. did Passacaglia submit his daytime order to put people in the brig for tonight? I never saw an announcement or anything...

[hoopsguy]

Here is what I show for the vote (as of post #1526):
PackerFanatic (6) - (1090), Tyrith (1129), saldana (1136), Marc Vaughan (1153), The Jackal (1201), Olie (1410), HOops (1514)
hoopsguy (6) - jeheniz72 (1219), path (1414), KWhit (1431), Danny (1434), Purdue (1444), Schmidty (1505)
saldana (2) - mccollins (1226), PackerFanatic (1358)
jeheniz72 (1) - claphamsa (805)
claphamsa (1) - Telle (1028)

No lynch (3) - Mrs. Schmidty (957), Passacaglia (1206), bulletsponge (1277)

No votes:
Alan T
Render
Telle
LoneStarGirl
Chubby

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Hoopsguy, I didn't see any answers regarding my comments about why your Danny being scanned plan was not only bad but negative gain for the good guys... I also didn't see any replies to why you didn't vote for Telle whom by your percentages has a higher chance of being bad than Render right now?

I'll go dig up old posts that cover this ground now.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

path, KWhit, Danny and PB.

Those are the runners.

I ain't votin path
I ain't votin KWhit
I ain't votin the two engineers, at least today.

So it's disconcerting that the run happened, as far as acting on it today, it's a no-go for me. If hoops is lynched and turns up good, then I'll worry.

I still think I'm pushing for a no lynch right now.. if we end up with it looking like someone is going to be lynched, I'll have to decide whom to vote for.. the person I trust the least right now but has a semi-needed role.. or the person whom I have no feel for either way but has a lesser important role (at least currently)

I still think I'd prefer no lynch

[jeheinz72]

The Render over Telle logic struck me as odd as well.
I realize you had some nod on RendeR Day one hoops, but seeing what it is, and weighing that against Telle's dual missions makes me wonder if that's the best pick.

[Danny]

I was considering a vote for Hoops before Path voted because he kept pushing that either jeheinz or I had to be lynched despite me trying to make it clear than I wasn't by any means saying jeheinz was bad. I also wanted to see someone else with Packerfanatic getting votes and jumping in on a run on the person I felt the worst about was an easy decision.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'll go dig up old posts that cover this ground now.

I'll go back and read them then.. I have 7 minutes to get a plan in my head.. so I have to read fast. I covered alot of pages pretty quick with less depth than I normally would.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Personally, I'm already granting you implicit trust - you are going to get scanned if you stay alive in this game. Whether that is tomorrow or the day after, it doesn't make a ton of difference for me as I'm trying to figure out the right move on D2. Consider "Path's Scans = Trusted" to be a moderate assumption on my part up to this point.

I want to make the right move TODAY. That is my priority at the moment, and that is why I've proposed the idea of scanning Danny today. There are a few outcomes:
1.) Danny is spawnling = cured, duplicant lives as well. Not necessarily the case if/when you scan him later in game (very good)
2.) Danny is good, we have strong reason to believe him being Spawn Aware, path leads to Heinz and we lynch a Spawn (mostly good, bad result for repairs right now)
3.) Danny is good, we have strong reason to believe him being Spawn Aware, but are wrong on Heinz (very bad)
4.) Danny is a Spawn, making a move I don't understand (playing off of Alan?) - we get a Spawn, maybe in a 1:1 trade, that doesn't involve our everyday medic (very good)

This is my most complete explanation of the Danny scan idea.

[path12]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

What are we at, 7-6 hoops?

You're on after work hours??? Man, this MUST be a good game.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So why did I, as a spawn, attempt to save PackerFanatic? Push away from No Vote? How would that be "good play"?

At least give me credit for making good plays the majority of the time, even if you think I'm full of crap today.

I give you a massive amount of credit. I credit you with knowing precisely how to tell people you're going to shit down their throat and convincing them its the best thing that could ever happen to them and have them thank you for it afterward

The only thing I know you did was turn on the Officers, namely Telle and I, for no reason other than a gut feeling or assumption. I don't like the timing of it, I don't like the fact that you ginore Telle, who has a far stronger chance of having been converted due to being outside twice, in order to push a vote for me.

Its the lack of logic in your decisions that puzzle me most. What is your reasoning for NOT voting packer? an understood expendible position?

You're simply being too vague to be trusted right now. The move to get danny scanned instead of Alan really bothers me. I'm not seeing any explanations for your actions.

[The Jackal]

I'm not sure if this is what is motivating people, but here's what I'm thinking.

If we're going off the theory that its very likely one of the officers is spawn, which I tend to think is true, I understand votes on hoopsguy. But he's not an especially strong candidate, wouldn't it be more prudent to lose a less important role at this stage of the game? Instead of weeding out officers by killing them, we can weed them out through scans.

I guess the only hanging thread there is if we trust that path isnt spawn, which I do at this point.

just some observations

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Render - initial tweak of suspicion from me with his "throw out a vote and we'll follow" post yesterday, although I didn't comment on it (publicly) at the time. I'll dig up post # if people need to see it. I'm certainly not the only guy who gets bad vibes from those kinds of posts.

Today - we now have two members of the officers cleared by the seer. Regardless of Path's faction, he probably isn't giving fake clears yet (would he?). I know my allegiance, so that leaves RendeR + Telle.

I'm going with my gut on RendeR over the odds on Telle (2 away missions). Her "very successful" initial mission could have been just a good random.org result, but it sounds like today was a good one as well. That is enough to temper my worries about her to a level below RendeR, although I'll likely return to her tomorrow if we lynch RendeR and find him good.

And there is my reasoning for RendeR vs Telle.